ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Geoffrey West - Theorist
Physicist Geoffrey West believes that complex systems from organisms to cities are in many ways governed by simple laws -- laws that can be discovered and analyzed.

Why you should listen

Trained as a theoretical physicist, Geoffrey West has turned his analytical mind toward the inner workings of more concrete things, like ... animals. In a paper for Science in 1997, he and his team uncovered what he sees as a surprisingly universal law of biology — the way in which heart rate, size and energy consumption are related, consistently, across most living animals. (Though not all animals: “There are always going to be people who say, ‘What about the crayfish?’ " he says. “Well, what about it? Every fundamental law has exceptions. But you still need the law or else all you have is observations that don’t make sense.")

A past president of the multidisciplinary Santa Fe Institute (after decades working  in high-energy physics at Los Alamos and Stanford), West now studies the behavior and development of cities. In his newest work, he proposes that one simple number, population, can predict a stunning array of details about any city, from crime rate to economic activity. It's all about the plumbing, he says, the infrastructure that powers growth or dysfunction. His next target for study: corporations.

He says: "Focusing on the differences [between cities] misses the point. Sure, there are differences, but different from what? We’ve found the what."

More profile about the speaker
Geoffrey West | Speaker | TED.com
TEDGlobal 2011

Geoffrey West: The surprising math of cities and corporations

Geoffrey West:有關都市和企業集團的驚奇數學

Filmed:
1,583,030 views

物理學家Geoffrey West 發現簡易、精確的數學法則制約都市特性:都市資源、犯罪率、走路速度,還有都市的很多層面都能由某單一數值來推論:都市的人口。在TEDGlobal現場,這場需花心思理解的演說中,他說明該數學法則如何運作及類似的法則如何通用於有機體和企業。
- Theorist
Physicist Geoffrey West believes that complex systems from organisms to cities are in many ways governed by simple laws -- laws that can be discovered and analyzed. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:16
Cities城市 are the crucible of civilization文明.
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都市是文明的大熔爐
00:19
They have been expanding擴大,
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它們持續擴大,
00:21
urbanization城市化 has been expanding擴大,
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都市化持續的擴展,
00:23
at an exponential指數 rate in the last 200 years年份
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兩百多年來隨指數率而爆增
00:25
so that by the second第二 part部分 of this century世紀,
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以致後半世紀來臨前
00:28
the planet行星 will be completely全然 dominated佔主導地位
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地球將完全
00:30
by cities城市.
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被都市佔據。
00:33
Cities城市 are the origins起源 of global全球 warming變暖,
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都市是全球暖化形成的起因,
00:36
impact碰撞 on the environment環境,
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直接影響環境、
00:38
health健康, pollution污染, disease疾病,
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健康、污染、疾病、
00:41
finance金融,
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財政、
00:43
economies經濟, energy能源 --
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經濟、能源
00:46
they're all problems問題
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這些問題全是
00:48
that are confronted面對 by having cities城市.
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因為都市的存在所遭遇到的
00:50
That's where all these problems問題 come from.
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都市是這些問題形成的起源。
00:52
And the tsunami海嘯 of problems問題 that we feel we're facing面對
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我們認為我們正面臨地震海嘯之困境
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in terms條款 of sustainability可持續性 questions問題
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──永續生存方面的問題──
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are actually其實 a reflection反射
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實際則是一個
00:59
of the exponential指數 increase增加
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全球都市化
01:01
in urbanization城市化 across橫過 the planet行星.
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指數增長的反映。
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Here's這裡的 some numbers數字.
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看看這些數據
01:06
Two hundred years年份 ago, the United聯合的 States狀態
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兩百年以前,美國
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was less than a few少數 percent百分 urbanized城市化.
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都市化低於幾個百分比;
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It's now more than 82 percent百分.
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現在超過百分之八十二。
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The planet行星 has crossed越過 the halfway mark標記 a few少數 years年份 ago.
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幾年前地球都市化已逾百分之五十,
01:15
China's中國的 building建造 300 new cities城市
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中國將建造三百座新都市
01:17
in the next下一個 20 years年份.
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在下個二十年。
01:19
Now listen to this:
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現在聽聽這個:
01:21
Every一切 week for the foreseeable可預見的 future未來,
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可預見之未來的每一週,
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until直到 2050,
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一直至2050年
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every一切 week more than a million百萬 people
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每週有超過百萬人口
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are being存在 added添加 to our cities城市.
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增添到這個都市
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This is going to affect影響 everything.
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這將會影響一切事物。
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Everybody每個人 in this room房間, if you stay alive,
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這演講廳的每個人──若你們仍然活著的話──
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is going to be affected受影響
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都會受都市裡
01:36
by what's happening事件 in cities城市
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發生的事所影響
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in this extraordinary非凡 phenomenon現象.
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這是非比尋常的現象。
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However然而, cities城市,
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然而,都市本身
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despite儘管 having this negative aspect方面 to them,
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──儘管有這不利的層面存在──
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are also the solution.
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也還是解決的方法。
01:48
Because cities城市 are the vacuum真空 cleaners清潔工 and the magnets磁鐵
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因為都市是吸塵器和磁鐵
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that have sucked up creative創作的 people,
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已吸入了富有創造力的人群、
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creating創建 ideas思路, innovation革新,
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有創意的點子、創新、
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wealth財富 and so on.
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資源等等。
01:58
So we have this kind of dual nature性質.
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所以有這種二元性存在。
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And so there's an urgent緊急 need
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因而迫切需要
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for a scientific科學 theory理論 of cities城市.
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都市科學理論。
02:07
Now these are my comrades同志 in arms武器.
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這些是我戰友的名字
02:10
This work has been doneDONE with an extraordinary非凡 group of people,
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這項研究成果是與一群非凡的人共同完成的,
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and they've他們已經 doneDONE all the work,
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他們完成所有的研究工作,
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and I'm the great bullshitterbullshitter
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而我是瞎掰天王
02:16
that tries嘗試 to bring帶來 it all together一起.
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試著將研究發現牽扯在一塊。
02:18
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑笑)
02:20
So here's這裡的 the problem問題: This is what we all want.
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問題來啦:這是我們都想要的,
02:22
The 10 billion十億 people on the planet行星 in 2050
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到了2050年,地球上會有百億人口
02:25
want to live生活 in places地方 like this,
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想要住在像這樣的地方;
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having things like this,
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擁有像這樣的東西;
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doing things like this,
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做這類的事情;
02:31
with economies經濟 that are growing生長 like this,
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還有,經濟有如此的成長;
02:34
not realizing實現 that entropy
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卻不了解「熵」
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produces產生 things like this,
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產生像這樣的東西,
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this, this
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這個、這個
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and this.
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和這個。
02:44
And the question is:
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問題是
02:46
Is that what Edinburgh愛丁堡 and London倫敦 and New York紐約
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那是愛丁堡、倫敦和紐約
02:48
are going to look like in 2050,
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在2050年時的樣貌,
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or is it going to be this?
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或者是會像這樣?
02:52
That's the question.
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那是個問題。
02:54
I must必須 say, many許多 of the indicators指標
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我必須說,很多的指標
02:56
look like this is what it's going to look like,
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指向這個是它將來的樣貌,
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but let's talk about it.
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那我們就來談談它。
03:02
So my provocative挑釁 statement聲明
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我的挑戰論點是
03:05
is that we desperately拼命 need a serious嚴重 scientific科學 theory理論 of cities城市.
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我們極需要一個嚴謹的都市科學理論。
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And scientific科學 theory理論 means手段 quantifiable量化 --
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而科學理論是指可計量的──
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relying依托 on underlying底層 generic通用 principles原則
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依據根本的通則,
03:14
that can be made製作 into a predictive預測 framework骨架.
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能導出可預測的架構。
03:16
That's the quest尋求.
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那得經過長期的探索。
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Is that conceivable可以想像?
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那可信嗎?
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Are there universal普遍 laws法律?
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有普遍法則嗎?
03:22
So here's這裡的 two questions問題
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所以,有兩個問題:
03:24
that I have in my head when I think about this problem問題.
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在思考這個問題時,我想到的。
03:26
The first is:
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第一個是:
03:28
Are cities城市 part部分 of biology生物學?
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都市是生物的一部分嗎?
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Is London倫敦 a great big whale?
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倫敦是條巨鯨?
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Is Edinburgh愛丁堡 a horse?
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愛丁堡是匹馬嗎?
03:34
Is Microsoft微軟 a great big anthill?
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微軟是一個超大的蟻丘嗎?
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What do we learn學習 from that?
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我們從那學到什麼?
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We use them metaphorically比喻 --
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我們將其暗喻化
03:40
the DNA脫氧核糖核酸 of a company公司, the metabolism代謝 of a city, and so on --
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──公司的DNA、一座都市的新陳代謝等等──
03:42
is that just bullshit廢話, metaphorical隱喻 bullshit廢話,
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那只是胡扯嗎?隱喻法的爛用嗎?
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or is there serious嚴重 substance物質 to it?
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或有重要的含義嗎?
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And if that is the case案件,
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若真是這樣,
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how come that it's very hard to kill a city?
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殺死一個都市怎麼那麼難?
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You could drop下降 an atom原子 bomb炸彈 on a city,
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你可以在都市丟顆原子彈,
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and 30 years年份 later後來 it's surviving倖存.
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三十年後它仍然存在
03:56
Very few少數 cities城市 fail失敗.
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幾乎沒有都市會消失;
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All companies公司 die, all companies公司.
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所有的企業會死亡......,所有企業。
04:02
And if you have a serious嚴重 theory理論, you should be able能夠 to predict預測
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而且若你有嚴謹的理論,你該可以預測
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when Google谷歌 is going to go bust胸圍.
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何時Google要倒閉。
04:07
So is that just another另一個 version
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那麼,「都市」只是「叢林」的另一個
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of this?
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說法囉?
04:12
Well we understand理解 this very well.
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我們對這點有相當的研究。
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That is, you ask any generic通用 question about this --
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也就是,你提出任何一般性的問題,如:
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how many許多 trees樹木 of a given特定 size尺寸,
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特定大小的樹有多少,
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how many許多 branches分支機構 of a given特定 size尺寸 does a tree have,
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一棵樹有多少特定大小的樹枝,
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how many許多 leaves樹葉,
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有多少葉子,
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what is the energy能源 flowing流動 through通過 each branch,
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遍佈每枝樹枝的能量是什麼,
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what is the size尺寸 of the canopy華蓋,
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天篷有多大
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what is its growth發展, what is its mortality死亡?
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它的成長特性?何時死亡?
04:28
We have a mathematical數學的 framework骨架
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我們有一個數學架構,
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based基於 on generic通用 universal普遍 principles原則
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是基於一般普遍原則而導出的
04:33
that can answer回答 those questions問題.
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能夠回答那樣的問題。
04:35
And the idea理念 is can we do the same相同 for this?
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而構想是我們能為都市/企業做同樣的事嗎?
04:40
So the route路線 in is recognizing認識
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所以,解答的路徑是認清
04:43
one of the most extraordinary非凡 things about life,
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與生命有關的最非凡的事物之一是
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is that it is scalable可擴展性,
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它是可縮放的,
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it works作品 over an extraordinary非凡 range範圍.
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它運作範圍相當驚人
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This is just a tiny range範圍 actually其實:
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事實上,這只是一個極小的範圍,
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It's us mammals哺乳動物;
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我們人類是哺乳動物
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we're one of these.
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我們是哺乳動物之一
04:55
The same相同 principles原則, the same相同 dynamics動力學,
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相同的原則、相同的生物動力學、
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the same相同 organization組織 is at work
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相同的系統,產生特殊作用在
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in all of these, including包含 us,
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所有這些生物體,包括我們在內,
05:01
and it can scale規模 over a range範圍 of 100 million百萬 in size尺寸.
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而且,它縮放含蓋大小範圍超過一億萬。
05:04
And that is one of the main主要 reasons原因
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再說,那是主要理由之一
05:07
life is so resilient彈性 and robust強大的 --
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生命是多麼地有韌性和堅實
05:09
scalability可擴展性.
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縮放自如。
05:11
We're going to discuss討論 that in a moment時刻 more.
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再一會兒,我們會再多加討論這部分。
05:14
But you know, at a local本地 level水平,
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但你知道,以局部的角度而論,
05:16
you scale規模; everybody每個人 in this room房間 is scaled縮放.
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你縮放,在這房內的每個人隨著縮放。
05:18
That's called growth發展.
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那就是所謂的成長。
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Here's這裡的 how you grew成長.
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這是你們成長的情形。
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Rat, that's a rat -- could have been you.
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老鼠,那是隻老鼠,可能本來是你,
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We're all pretty漂亮 much the same相同.
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我們有相當多雷同的地方。
05:27
And you see, you're very familiar with this.
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而且你們看,你們對這個非常熟悉,
05:29
You grow增長 very quickly很快 and then you stop.
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你長得非常快,然後停了下來。
05:31
And that line there
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那條曲線
05:33
is a prediction預測 from the same相同 theory理論,
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是來自相同理論的一個預測,
05:35
based基於 on the same相同 principles原則,
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基於相同的原則,
05:37
that describes介紹 that forest森林.
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此原則也用來敍述(前述)那座森林。
05:39
And here it is for the growth發展 of a rat,
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而在這兒,是用來敍述一隻老鼠的成長
05:41
and those points on there are data數據 points.
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那些點點是數據點。
05:43
This is just the weight重量 versus the age年齡.
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此圖是重量對上年紀
05:45
And you see, it stops停止 growing生長.
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你看,線條停止發展
05:47
Very, very good for biology生物學 --
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對生物而言是非常合適的
05:49
also one of the reasons原因 for its great resilience彈性.
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──也是作為它極佳韌性的解釋之一──
05:51
Very, very bad
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但卻非常非常不利,
05:53
for economies經濟 and companies公司 and cities城市
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對經濟、企業、都市而言;
05:55
in our present當下 paradigm範例.
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這是從我們目前的範例看來,
05:57
This is what we believe.
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這是我們所認為的。
05:59
This is what our whole整個 economy經濟
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這是我們整體的經濟制度
06:01
is thrusting推力 upon us,
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強加諸在我們身上的......,
06:03
particularly尤其 illustrated插圖 in that left-hand左手 corner:
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具體地顯示在左邊角落:
06:06
hockey曲棍球 sticks.
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曲棍球棒。
06:08
This is a bunch of software軟件 companies公司 --
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這是一堆的軟體公司
06:10
and what it is is their revenue收入 versus their age年齡 --
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──收入對上經營年資──
06:12
all zooming縮放 away,
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急遽上升
06:14
and everybody每個人 making製造 millions百萬 and billions數十億 of dollars美元.
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而且每個人都賺好幾百萬和好幾十億的美元
06:16
Okay, so how do we understand理解 this?
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Okay,那麼我們如何了解其內含?
06:19
So let's first talk about biology生物學.
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讓我們先談談生態學。
06:22
This is explicitly明確地 showing展示 you
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這張圖清楚的顯示
06:24
how things scale規模,
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事物縮放的情形。
06:26
and this is a truly remarkable卓越 graph圖形.
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這是一張非常值得注意的圖表。
06:28
What is plotted繪製 here is metabolic新陳代謝 rate --
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這張圖標繪的是新陳代謝率
06:31
how much energy能源 you need per day to stay alive --
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你每天需要多少能量以維持生存
06:34
versus your weight重量, your mass,
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對上你的體重,你的質量
06:36
for all of us bunch of organisms生物.
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通用於我們這群有機體
06:39
And it's plotted繪製 in this funny滑稽 way by going up by factors因素 of 10,
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這張圖是以好玩的方式繪製──以十倍等系數增加,
06:42
otherwise除此以外 you couldn't不能 get everything on the graph圖形.
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否則無法把所有的東西放進圖表上。
06:44
And what you see if you plot情節 it
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而且你看到的是──若你以
06:46
in this slightly curious好奇 way
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略為奇怪的方式來繪製它──
06:48
is that everybody每個人 lies on the same相同 line.
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每個人都在相同的線上。
06:51
Despite儘管 the fact事實 that this is the most complex複雜 and diverse多種 system系統
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儘管事實是,這是在宇宙中最複雜又
06:54
in the universe宇宙,
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多樣化的系統,
06:57
there's an extraordinary非凡 simplicity簡單
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有個極其簡單易懂的事物
06:59
being存在 expressed表達 by this.
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藉由這個系統傳遞。
07:01
It's particularly尤其 astonishing驚人
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尤其驚人是,
07:04
because each one of these organisms生物,
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由於各個有機體、
07:06
each subsystem子系統, each cell細胞 type類型, each gene基因,
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各別次系統、各別細胞種類、各別基因
07:08
has evolved進化 in its own擁有 unique獨特 environmental環境的 niche壁龕
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在自己獨特的環境利基中,已逐漸演化
07:12
with its own擁有 unique獨特 history歷史.
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且有自己獨一無二的歷史。
07:15
And yet然而, despite儘管 all of that Darwinian達爾文 evolution演化
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然而,儘管達爾文進化論和
07:18
and natural自然 selection選擇,
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自然淘汰存在,
07:20
they've他們已經 been constrained受限 to lie謊言 on a line.
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他們已受限於立足在同一條線。
07:22
Something else其他 is going on.
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有某個重要的東西正在運作。
07:24
Before I talk about that,
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在談論那以前,
07:26
I've written書面 down at the bottom底部 there
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我已在下方寫下
07:28
the slope of this curve曲線, this straight直行 line.
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這條曲線的斜率,這條直線。
07:30
It's three-quarters四分之三, roughly大致,
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約略為3/4(又四分之三)
07:32
which哪一個 is less than one -- and we call that sublinear次線性.
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小於1,我們稱那「次線性」。
07:35
And here's這裡的 the point of that.
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那有個重點
07:37
It says that, if it were linear線性,
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就是說:若它是「線性」的
07:40
the steepest最陡 slope,
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最陡的斜度,
07:42
then doubling加倍 the size尺寸
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那麼加倍放大其尺寸
07:44
you would require要求 double the amount of energy能源.
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你會需要加倍的能量。
07:46
But it's sublinear次線性, and what that translates轉換 into
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但它是「次線性」, 也就是說:
07:49
is that, if you double the size尺寸 of the organism生物,
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若你加大有機體的尺寸
07:51
you actually其實 only need 75 percent百分 more energy能源.
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你其實只需要多百分之七十五的能量。
07:54
So a wonderful精彩 thing about all of biology生物學
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因此,有關生態學的一件奇妙的事是
07:56
is that it expresses表達 an extraordinary非凡 economy經濟 of scale規模.
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它揭露一個不尋常的規模經濟
07:59
The bigger you are systematically系統,
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你有系統地變得越大
08:01
according根據 to very well-defined明確 rules規則,
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──根據非常明確定義的規則──
08:03
less energy能源 per capita人頭.
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每個人需要的能量越少。
08:06
Now any physiological生理 variable變量 you can think of,
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現在你能想到的任何物理變數;
08:09
any life history歷史 event事件 you can think of,
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你能想到的任何生活史事件,
08:11
if you plot情節 it this way, looks容貌 like this.
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如果以這個方式繪製它,會像這樣。
08:14
There is an extraordinary非凡 regularity規律性.
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有個驚奇的規律性。
08:16
So you tell me the size尺寸 of a mammal哺乳動物,
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這麼說吧!你告我哺乳動物的大小,
08:18
I can tell you at the 90 percent百分 level水平 everything about it
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我能告訴你百分之九十與其相關的事,
08:21
in terms條款 of its physiology生理, life history歷史, etc等等.
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它的生理機能、生活史等等。
08:25
And the reason原因 for this is because of networks網絡.
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而之所以能如此,是因為「脈絡」
08:28
All of life is controlled受控 by networks網絡 --
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所有的生命受制於脈絡──
08:31
from the intracellular細胞內 through通過 the multicellular
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從細胞內到多細胞
08:33
through通過 the ecosystem生態系統 level水平.
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到生態系統層面。
08:35
And you're very familiar with these networks網絡.
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而且你們對這些脈絡非常熟悉。
08:39
That's a little thing that lives生活 inside an elephant.
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那是存在大象內的一個小東西。
08:42
And here's這裡的 the summary概要 of what I'm saying.
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接著,這是我所談之事的摘要,
08:45
If you take those networks網絡,
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若你利用這些脈絡,
08:47
this idea理念 of networks網絡,
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脈絡這個點子
08:49
and you apply應用 universal普遍 principles原則,
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並運用普遍原則
08:51
mathematizablemathematizable, universal普遍 principles原則,
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──數學的普遍原則:
08:53
all of these scalings定標
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所有這些呈線性變換縮放
08:55
and all of these constraints限制 follow跟隨,
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及所有這些約束跟著仿效
08:58
including包含 the description描述 of the forest森林,
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包括森林的描繪、
09:00
the description描述 of your circulatory循環系統 system系統,
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你們循環系統的描繪、
09:02
the description描述 within cells細胞.
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細胞內的描繪。
09:04
One of the things I did not stress強調 in that introduction介紹
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有件事我沒有在開頭介紹時強調的是
09:07
was that, systematically系統, the pace步伐 of life
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生命的節奏有系統地減緩,
09:10
decreases降低 as you get bigger.
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當你變得越大。
09:12
Heart rates利率 are slower比較慢; you live生活 longer;
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心跳率越慢,你活得越久;
09:15
diffusion擴散 of oxygen and resources資源
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氧氣和資源
09:17
across橫過 membranes is slower比較慢, etc等等.
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在整個黏膜擴散得越慢等等。
09:19
The question is: Is any of this true真正
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問題是:對都市和企業而言
09:21
for cities城市 and companies公司?
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這是真的嗎?
09:24
So is London倫敦 a scaled縮放 up Birmingham伯明翰,
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那麼倫敦是一個放大的伯明罕
09:27
which哪一個 is a scaled縮放 up Brighton布萊頓, etc等等., etc等等.?
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伯明罕是一個放大的布萊頓......等等?
09:30
Is New York紐約 a scaled縮放 up San Francisco弗朗西斯科,
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紐約是一個放大的舊金山?
09:32
which哪一個 is a scaled縮放 up Santa聖誕老人 Fe?
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舊金山是放大的聖塔菲(Santa Fe)嗎?
09:34
Don't know. We will discuss討論 that.
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不曉得,我們會討論到那點。
09:36
But they are networks網絡,
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但它們是脈絡。
09:38
and the most important重要 network網絡 of cities城市
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而最重要的都市脈絡
09:40
is you.
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是你。
09:42
Cities城市 are just a physical物理 manifestation表現
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都市只是個物理的明顯跡象──
09:45
of your interactions互動,
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你們的交流、
09:47
our interactions互動,
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我們的交流、
09:49
and the clustering集群 and grouping分組 of individuals個人.
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及許多個體結群和聚集的產物。
09:51
Here's這裡的 just a symbolic象徵 picture圖片 of that.
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這只是一幅象徵脈絡的圖。
09:54
And here's這裡的 scaling縮放 of cities城市.
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而這是都市的縮放
09:56
This shows節目 that in this very simple簡單 example,
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這張圖以非常簡單的例子來說明脈絡
09:59
which哪一個 happens發生 to be a mundane平凡 example
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而且恰好是個平凡的例子
10:01
of number of petrol汽油 stations
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──加油站的數字
10:03
as a function功能 of size尺寸 --
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為隨規模大小變化的因素
10:05
plotted繪製 in the same相同 way as the biology生物學 --
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──如標繪生態學一般繪製──
10:07
you see exactly究竟 the same相同 kind of thing.
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你看到的確實是同類東西
10:09
There is a scaling縮放.
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這是縮放圖
10:11
That is that the number of petrol汽油 stations in the city
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這是都市裡加油站的數量
10:15
is now given特定 to you
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現在提供給你,
10:17
when you tell me its size尺寸.
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若你告訴我都市的大小。
10:19
The slope of that is less than linear線性.
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其斜率小於線性。
10:22
There is an economy經濟 of scale規模.
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有一個規模經濟。
10:24
Less petrol汽油 stations per capita人頭 the bigger you are -- not surprising奇怪.
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每個人分到的加油站越少,都市規模就越大──沒什麼好驚訝的。
10:27
But here's這裡的 what's surprising奇怪.
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但令人驚訝的是
10:29
It scales in the same相同 way everywhere到處.
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這種縮放方式在處處皆相同
10:31
This is just European歐洲的 countries國家,
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這只是歐洲國家
10:33
but you do it in Japan日本 or China中國 or Colombia哥倫比亞,
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但在日本、中國、歌倫比亞作測試
10:36
always the same相同
265
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結論總是相同:
10:38
with the same相同 kind of economy經濟 of scale規模
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同類的規模經濟
10:40
to the same相同 degree.
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達到相同的等級。
10:42
And any infrastructure基礎設施 you look at --
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你看到的任何公共建設,
10:45
whether是否 it's the length長度 of roads道路, length長度 of electrical電動 lines --
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無論是路的長度、電線長度
10:48
anything you look at
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任何你所看到的
10:50
has the same相同 economy經濟 of scale規模 scaling縮放 in the same相同 way.
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有相同的規模經濟,以同種方式縮放。
10:53
It's an integrated集成 system系統
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這已經是成型的協調系統
10:55
that has evolved進化 despite儘管 all the planning規劃 and so on.
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儘管是用各種的規劃設計安排等等,
10:58
But even more surprising奇怪
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但更令人驚訝的是
11:00
is if you look at socio-economic社會經濟 quantities數量,
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若你詳看社會經濟量
11:02
quantities數量 that have no analog類似物 in biology生物學,
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──生態學不存在這種量──
11:05
that have evolved進化 when we started開始 forming成型 communities社區
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在我們開始形成社群時,便已逐步演進
11:08
eight to 10,000 years年份 ago.
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從八千年前至一萬年以前
11:10
The top最佳 one is wages工資 as a function功能 of size尺寸
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上面那是薪資作為隨大小變化的因素
11:12
plotted繪製 in the same相同 way.
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以相同方式標繪,
11:14
And the bottom底部 one is you lot --
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橫軸標示你們這群人
11:16
super-creatives超創意 plotted繪製 in the same相同 way.
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緃軸標示超創造力的分佈圖,以相同方式繪製
11:19
And what you see
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你所看到的是
11:21
is a scaling縮放 phenomenon現象.
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一個縮放現象。
11:23
But most important重要 in this,
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但這張圖最要的是
11:25
the exponent指數, the analog類似物 to that three-quarters四分之三
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指數──0.75(3/4)新陳代謝率的
11:27
for the metabolic新陳代謝 rate,
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類似物──
11:29
is bigger than one -- it's about 1.15 to 1.2.
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是大於1,約1.15到1.2
11:31
Here it is,
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重點來了
11:33
which哪一個 says that the bigger you are
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就是說,人口越大
11:36
the more you have per capita人頭, unlike不像 biology生物學 --
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每座都市擁有的越多,不像生態學。
11:39
higher更高 wages工資, more super-creative超創意 people per capita人頭 as you get bigger,
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當人口變得越大,每座都市的超級創造者越多
11:43
more patents專利 per capita人頭, more crime犯罪 per capita人頭.
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每個都市的專利更多、犯罪更多。
11:46
And we've我們已經 looked看著 at everything:
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我們已檢視過每個項目:
11:48
more AIDS艾滋病 cases, flu流感, etc等等.
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AIDS 病例、流感......等等
11:51
And here, they're all plotted繪製 together一起.
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看!他們全被繪製在一塊兒。
11:53
Just to show顯示 you what we plotted繪製,
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只是讓你們看看我們繪製的東西
11:55
here is income收入, GDPGDP --
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收入、GDP
11:58
GDPGDP of the city --
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都市的GDP
12:00
crime犯罪 and patents專利 all on one graph圖形.
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犯罪和專利都在一份圖表
12:02
And you can see, they all follow跟隨 the same相同 line.
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你可以看到,它們全隨著同一條線。
12:04
And here's這裡的 the statement聲明.
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作個說明,
12:06
If you double the size尺寸 of a city from 100,000 to 200,000,
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若你將都市由十萬放大兩倍至二十萬、
12:09
from a million百萬 to two million百萬, 10 to 20 million百萬,
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一百萬至二百萬、一千萬至二千萬
12:11
it doesn't matter,
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都無所謂。
12:13
then systematically系統
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然後,有系統地
12:15
you get a 15 percent百分 increase增加
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得到百分之十五的增加,
12:17
in wages工資, wealth財富, number of AIDS艾滋病 cases,
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如:薪資、資源、愛滋病案例、
12:19
number of police警察,
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、警察人數
12:21
anything you can think of.
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任何你可以想得到的事物都會增加。
12:23
It goes up by 15 percent百分,
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上漲了百分十五。
12:25
and you have a 15 percent百分 savings
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你就有一個百分之十五的存款
12:28
on the infrastructure基礎設施.
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在公共建設。
12:31
This, no doubt懷疑, is the reason原因
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無庸置疑,這是為何
12:34
why a million百萬 people a week are gathering蒐集 in cities城市.
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一週有一百萬人湧入都市的理由。
12:37
Because they think that all those wonderful精彩 things --
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因為他們認為所有這些美妙的事物
12:40
like creative創作的 people, wealth財富, income收入 --
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如:有創造力的人、資源、收入......等,
12:42
is what attracts吸引 them,
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引人入勝,
12:44
forgetting遺忘 about the ugly醜陋 and the bad.
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而忘了醜陃和邪惡的一面
12:46
What is the reason原因 for this?
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怎麼會忘了這一面呢?
12:48
Well I don't have time to tell you about all the mathematics數學,
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我沒有足夠的時間告訴你所有的這些數學
12:51
but underlying底層 this is the social社會 networks網絡,
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根本而言,這是社會脈絡,
12:54
because this is a universal普遍 phenomenon現象.
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因為這是普遍現象。
12:57
This 15 percent百分 rule規則
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這百分之十五的估算
13:00
is true真正
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是真的
13:02
no matter where you are on the planet行星 --
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不論在地球的那裡
13:04
Japan日本, Chile智利,
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日本、智利、
13:06
Portugal葡萄牙, Scotland蘇格蘭, doesn't matter.
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葡萄牙、蘇格蘭等都不打緊
13:09
Always, all the data數據 shows節目 it's the same相同,
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所有的數據資料總是顯示相同的結果,
13:12
despite儘管 the fact事實 that these cities城市 have evolved進化 independently獨立地.
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儘管事實是,這些都市一直是獨立演化發展。
13:15
Something universal普遍 is going on.
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某個萬能的東西正在運行、
13:17
The universality普遍性, to repeat重複, is us --
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重申!普遍性即是我們,
13:20
that we are the city.
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我們是都市。
13:22
And it is our interactions互動 and the clustering集群 of those interactions互動.
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而且都市是我們之間的交流及那些交流的群集。
13:25
So there it is, I've said it again.
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又來了,我已再度提到它
13:27
So if it is those networks網絡 and their mathematical數學的 structure結構體,
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若它是這些脈絡及此等脈絡的數學結構;
13:30
unlike不像 biology生物學, which哪一個 had sublinear次線性 scaling縮放,
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不像生態學有「次現性縮放」、
13:33
economies經濟 of scale規模,
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規模經濟、
13:35
you had the slowing減緩 of the pace步伐 of life
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生命節奏減緩
13:37
as you get bigger.
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當你變得較大時。
13:39
If it's social社會 networks網絡 with super-linear超線性 scaling縮放 --
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若都市有「超線性縮放」的社會脈絡
13:41
more per capita人頭 --
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──更多人口──
13:43
then the theory理論 says
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那麼該理論指示
13:45
that you increase增加 the pace步伐 of life.
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生活的節奏加快。
13:47
The bigger you are, life gets得到 faster更快.
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人口越大,生活步調就變得越快。
13:49
On the left is the heart rate showing展示 biology生物學.
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左圖顯示生物之心跳率
13:51
On the right is the speed速度 of walking步行
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右圖則是走路的速度
13:53
in a bunch of European歐洲的 cities城市,
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地點是在歐洲都市,
13:55
showing展示 that increase增加.
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顯示走路速度增快。
13:57
Lastly最後, I want to talk about growth發展.
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最後,我要談談成長。
14:00
This is what we had in biology生物學, just to repeat重複.
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這是生物界所有的特性,只是重申!
14:03
Economies經濟 of scale規模
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規模經濟
14:06
gave rise上升 to this sigmoidalS形 behavior行為.
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產生這個「S型函數」作用下的行為。
14:09
You grow增長 fast快速 and then stop --
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快速成長,然後停止─
14:12
part部分 of our resilience彈性.
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─那是生物韌性的一部分。
14:14
That would be bad for economies經濟 and cities城市.
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那對經濟和都市不利。
14:17
And indeed確實, one of the wonderful精彩 things about the theory理論
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而且的確,有關這個理論的奇妙之處之一是
14:19
is that if you have super-linear超線性 scaling縮放
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若由資源的創造和創新得到
14:22
from wealth財富 creation創建 and innovation革新,
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「超線性縮放」
14:24
then indeed確實 you get, from the same相同 theory理論,
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出自相同的理論,你甚至得到
14:27
a beautiful美麗 rising升起 exponential指數 curve曲線 -- lovely可愛.
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一個漂亮的上升指數曲線──好極了。
14:29
And in fact事實, if you compare比較 it to data數據,
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而且事實上,如果拿它和數據資料比照
14:31
it fits適合 very well
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完全吻合,
14:33
with the development發展 of cities城市 and economies經濟.
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與都市和經濟的發展相符。
14:35
But it has a terrible可怕 catch抓住,
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但這有一個嚴重的隱患。
14:37
and the catch抓住
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這個隱患是
14:39
is that this system系統 is destined注定 to collapse坍方.
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該系統遲早崩潰
14:42
And it's destined注定 to collapse坍方 for many許多 reasons原因 --
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有好幾個理由註定它會瓦解──
14:44
kind of Malthusian馬爾薩斯 reasons原因 -- that you run out of resources資源.
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有幾分數學原因──資源耗盡。
14:47
And how do you avoid避免 that? Well we've我們已經 doneDONE it before.
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你如何避免耗盡資源?嗯,我們之前就已這麼做了
14:50
What we do is,
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我們怎麼做呢?
14:52
as we grow增長 and we approach途徑 the collapse坍方,
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隨著發展,我們越接近衰敗。
14:55
a major重大的 innovation革新 takes place地點
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一個重要的創新發生
14:58
and we start開始 over again,
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我們就又重新開始。
15:00
and we start開始 over again as we approach途徑 the next下一個 one, and so on.
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當我們接近下一個威脅,我們又重新開始, 一直循環下去
15:03
So there's this continuous連續 cycle週期 of innovation革新
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所以,有創新的連續循環
15:05
that is necessary必要
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是必需的
15:07
in order訂購 to sustain支持 growth發展 and avoid避免 collapse坍方.
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以便維持發展和避免突然垮掉。
15:10
The catch抓住, however然而, to this
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然而,解套的方法是
15:12
is that you have to innovate創新
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你必須革新
15:14
faster更快 and faster更快 and faster更快.
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加快、加速、再加速度
15:17
So the image圖片
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因此,構想的樣貌是
15:19
is that we're not only on a treadmill跑步機 that's going faster更快,
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我們不只在運轉非常快速的跑步機上
15:22
but we have to change更改 the treadmill跑步機 faster更快 and faster更快.
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而且我們還要超快速地改造這台跑步機;
15:25
We have to accelerate加速 on a continuous連續 basis基礎.
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我們必須以連續的形式加速。
15:28
And the question is: Can we, as socio-economic社會經濟 beings眾生,
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而且問題是:身為社會經濟的生物,
15:31
avoid避免 a heart attack攻擊?
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我們能避免心臟病嗎?
15:34
So lastly最後, I'm going to finish up in this last minute分鐘 or two
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那麼,最後我要在這最後一、兩分鐘內結束
15:37
asking about companies公司.
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來探討企業。
15:39
See companies公司, they scale規模.
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看這些企業,他們向上攀升
15:41
The top最佳 one, in fact事實, is Walmart沃爾瑪(Walmart) on the right.
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事實上,上面這條線是描繪沃爾瑪的現況
15:43
It's the same相同 plot情節.
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有相同的標繪。
15:45
This happens發生 to be income收入 and assets資產
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橫軸是收入和資產
15:47
versus the size尺寸 of the company公司 as denoted by its number of employees僱員.
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對上公司規模大小,以員工數代表。
15:49
We could use sales銷售, anything you like.
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我們能用銷售或任何你喜歡的事物替換。
15:52
There it is: after some little fluctuations波動 at the beginning開始,
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是這樣子的:一開始在些許微乎其微的波動後
15:55
when companies公司 are innovating創新,
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──正值企業創新時期──
15:57
they scale規模 beautifully精美.
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它們向上美妙地攀升。
15:59
And we've我們已經 looked看著 at 23,000 companies公司
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我們檢視過兩萬三千家企業,
16:02
in the United聯合的 States狀態, may可能 I say.
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在美國的企業,可以這麼說吧。
16:04
And I'm only showing展示 you a little bit of this.
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我讓你們看到只是其中一小部分
16:07
What is astonishing驚人 about companies公司
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有關這些企業的驚人發現是,
16:09
is that they scale規模 sublinearlysublinearly
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它們呈「次線性」地向上攀升,
16:12
like biology生物學,
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──像生態的規律一般──
16:14
indicating說明 that they're dominated佔主導地位,
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表示它們受支配
16:16
not by super-linear超線性
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──非受超線性的
16:18
innovation革新 and ideas思路;
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創新和概念所控制──
16:21
they become成為 dominated佔主導地位
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它們開始變得受
16:23
by economies經濟 of scale規模.
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經濟規模所支配。
16:25
In that interpretation解釋,
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官僚制度和監管
16:27
by bureaucracy官僚 and administration行政,
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可解釋那點。
16:29
and they do it beautifully精美, may可能 I say.
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而且它們運作地極棒,可以這麼說吧。
16:31
So if you tell me the size尺寸 of some company公司, some small company公司,
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所以若你告訴我某公司的規模大小、某間小公司
16:34
I could have predicted預料到的 the size尺寸 of Walmart沃爾瑪(Walmart).
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我早可以預測沃爾瑪的規模大小。
16:37
If it has this sublinear次線性 scaling縮放,
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若它存有「次線性縮放」,
16:39
the theory理論 says
416
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這個理論指示
16:41
we should have sigmoidalS形 growth發展.
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我們應會有呈「S型函數的發展」。
16:44
There's Walmart沃爾瑪(Walmart). Doesn't look very sigmoidalS形.
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這條是沃爾瑪,看來非常不「S型函數曲線」。
16:46
That's what we like, hockey曲棍球 sticks.
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那是我們喜歡的曲棍球棒
16:49
But you notice注意, I've cheated被騙,
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但注意看,我在哄騙你們
16:51
because I've only gone走了 up to '94.
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因為這條線只顯示到1994年,
16:53
Let's go up to 2008.
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咱們來看看繪製到2008年的圖表。
16:55
That red line is from the theory理論.
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那紅線是依理論產生的
16:58
So if I'd have doneDONE this in 1994,
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那麼,若我在1994完成這張圖
17:00
I could have predicted預料到的 what Walmart沃爾瑪(Walmart) would be now.
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我早可以預測沃爾瑪現在的狀況。
17:03
And then this is repeated重複
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然後這數學架構重覆應用
17:05
across橫過 the entire整個 spectrum光譜 of companies公司.
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橫跨所有領域的眾多企業。
17:07
There they are. That's 23,000 companies公司.
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它們都在這兒。那兩萬三千間公司
17:10
They all start開始 looking like hockey曲棍球 sticks,
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它們全開始長得像曲棍球棒,
17:12
they all bend彎曲 over,
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它們均呈現向下彎曲,
17:14
and they all die like you and me.
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它們就像你我一樣生命終會消失。
17:16
Thank you.
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謝謝大家
17:18
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by Resa CC
Reviewed by Phoebe Yu

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Geoffrey West - Theorist
Physicist Geoffrey West believes that complex systems from organisms to cities are in many ways governed by simple laws -- laws that can be discovered and analyzed.

Why you should listen

Trained as a theoretical physicist, Geoffrey West has turned his analytical mind toward the inner workings of more concrete things, like ... animals. In a paper for Science in 1997, he and his team uncovered what he sees as a surprisingly universal law of biology — the way in which heart rate, size and energy consumption are related, consistently, across most living animals. (Though not all animals: “There are always going to be people who say, ‘What about the crayfish?’ " he says. “Well, what about it? Every fundamental law has exceptions. But you still need the law or else all you have is observations that don’t make sense.")

A past president of the multidisciplinary Santa Fe Institute (after decades working  in high-energy physics at Los Alamos and Stanford), West now studies the behavior and development of cities. In his newest work, he proposes that one simple number, population, can predict a stunning array of details about any city, from crime rate to economic activity. It's all about the plumbing, he says, the infrastructure that powers growth or dysfunction. His next target for study: corporations.

He says: "Focusing on the differences [between cities] misses the point. Sure, there are differences, but different from what? We’ve found the what."

More profile about the speaker
Geoffrey West | Speaker | TED.com

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