TED2012
Rob Reid: The $8 billion iPod
Rob Reid: O iPod dos 8 mil millóns
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O autor cómico Rob Reif descúbrenos as matemáticas do copyright (TM), un destacable novo campo de estudio baseafo nos números reais dados por avogados e lobistas da indsutria do entretemento.
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneur
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
The recent debate over copyright laws
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O recente debate sobre a propiedade intelectual,
00:17
like SOPA in the United States
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coa lei SOPA, nos Estados Unidos
00:19
and the ACTA agreement in Europe
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ou a ACTA en Europa
00:21
has been very emotional.
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foi moi emocional.
00:23
And I think some dispassionate, quantitative reasoning
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E eu creo que algo de
obxectividade e raciocinio
obxectividade e raciocinio
00:26
could really bring a great deal to the debate.
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podería aportar moito ao debate.
00:28
I'd therefore like to propose
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Gustaríame, daquela, propoñer
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that we employ, we enlist,
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que usemos, que fagamos noso do
00:32
the cutting edge field of copyright math
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candente concepto das
"matemáticas da propieade intelectual"
00:34
whenever we approach this subject.
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en cando tratemos este tema.
00:36
For instance, just recently
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Por exemplo, hai pouco
00:38
the Motion Picture Association revealed
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a Asociación "Motion Picture" revelou
00:40
that our economy loses 58 billion dollars a year
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que a nosa economía perde 58 mil millóns
de dólares anuais
de dólares anuais
00:43
to copyright theft.
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debido ó roubo da propiedade intelectual.
00:46
Now rather than just argue about this number,
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En vez de discutir sobre a cifra,
00:48
a copyright mathematician will analyze it
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un matemático do copyright analizaríao
00:51
and he'll soon discover that this money
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e descubriría que esta cantidade
00:53
could stretch from this auditorium
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podería estricarse dende este auditorío
00:55
all the way across Ocean Boulevard
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cruzando Ocean Bulevar
00:57
to the Westin, and then to Mars ...
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cara Westin, e logo ata Marte.....
01:00
(Laughter)
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(Risa)
01:02
... if we use pennies.
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.....se utilizásemos céntimos.
01:05
Now this is obviously a powerful,
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Está claro que é un punto de vista poderoso,
01:07
some might say dangerously powerful, insight.
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para algúns incluso perigosamente poderoso.
01:10
But it's also a morally important one.
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Pero tamén é moralmente importante.
01:12
Because this isn't just the hypothetical retail value
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Porque non estamos só a falar do
hipotético valor de venda
hipotético valor de venda
01:15
of some pirated movies that we're talking about,
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de algunha película pirateada,
01:17
but this is actual economic losses.
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se non de perdas económicas reais.
01:19
This is the equivalent
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Isto sería o equivalente
01:21
to the entire American corn crop failing
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a toda colleita de millo de EEUU,
01:23
along with all of our fruit crops,
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máis o cultivo de froitas,
01:26
as well as wheat, tobacco,
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de trigo, tabaco,
01:28
rice, sorghum --
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arroz, o sorgo
01:30
whatever sorghum is -- losing sorghum.
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sexa o que sexa o sorgo.
01:34
But identifying the actual losses to the economy
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Mais Identificar as perdas económicas reais
01:37
is almost impossible to do
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é case imposible
01:39
unless we use copyright math.
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de non recurrirmos ás matemáticas do copyright.
01:41
Now music revenues are down by about eight billion dollars a year
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Os ingresos da música descenden 8000
millóns de dólares ó ano
millóns de dólares ó ano
01:44
since Napster first came on the scene.
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desde que naceu Napster.
01:46
So that's a chunk of what we're looking for.
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Isto é só un bocado do que buscamos.
01:49
But total movie revenues
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Pero os ingresos totais do cine,
01:51
across theaters, home video and pay-per-view are up.
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en salas, DVD e Tv de pago soben
01:53
And TV, satellite and cable revenues are way up.
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Os ingresos das televisións, cable
ou satélite, soben
ou satélite, soben
01:56
Other content markets like book publishing and radio
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Outros mercados como o editorial
ou a radio
ou a radio
01:58
are also up.
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tamén soben.
02:00
So this small missing chunk here
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Así que o bocado que aquí falta
02:02
is puzzling.
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é unha lea.
02:04
(Laughter)
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(Risas)
02:07
(Applause)
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(Aplausos)
02:10
Since the big content markets
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Visto que os produtores de contidos
02:12
have grown in line with historic norms,
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medraron de acordo coas normas tradicionais,
02:14
it's not additional growth that piracy has prevented,
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a piratería non evitou
este crecemento adicional,
este crecemento adicional,
02:17
but copyright math tells us
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pero as matemáticas do copyright dinnos
02:19
it must therefore be foregone growth
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ten que ser polo tanto
un crecemento previsíbel
un crecemento previsíbel
02:22
in a market that has no historic norms --
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nun mercado que non ten normas históricas,
02:24
one that didn't exist in the 90's.
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un que non existía nos anos 90.
02:26
What we're looking at here
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O que estamos a ver,
02:28
is the insidious cost of ringtone piracy.
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É o pérfido coste da
piratería de politonos
piratería de politonos
02:30
(Laughter)
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(Risas)
02:34
50 billion dollars of it a year,
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50 mil millóns ó ano,
02:36
which is enough, at 30 seconds a ringtone,
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por, 30 segundos por politono,
02:38
that could stretch from here
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cantidade que iría desde aquí
02:40
to Neanderthal times.
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ata a época neandertal.
02:42
(Laughter)
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(Risas)
02:46
It's true.
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É certo.
02:48
(Applause)
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(Aplausos)
02:50
I have Excel.
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Teño o Excel
02:52
(Laughter)
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(Risas)
02:54
The movie folks also tell us
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A xente do cine dinos
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that our economy loses
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que a nosa economía perde
02:58
over 370,000 jobs to content theft,
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370.000 empregos polo roubo de contidos,
03:01
which is quite a lot when you consider that, back in '98,
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moito se temos en conta que no 98,
03:04
the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated
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o Centro de Estatística sinalaba
03:06
that the motion picture and video industries
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que na industria do cine e a animación
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were employing 270,000 people.
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traballaban 270.000 persoas.
03:11
Other data has the music industry at about 45,000 people.
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Outros datos falan de 45000 empregos
no sector da música.
no sector da música.
03:14
And so the job losses that came with the Internet
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Entón a perda de emprego causada por Internet,
03:16
and all that content theft,
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e toda a piratería
03:18
have therefore left us with negative employment in our content industries.
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déixannos con datos de emprego negativo
na industria de contidos.
na industria de contidos.
03:21
And this is just one of the many mind-blowing statistics
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Esta é so unha das
sorprendentes estatísticas
sorprendentes estatísticas
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that copyright mathematicians have to deal with every day.
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que os matemáticos do copyright manexan cada día.
03:26
And some people think that string theory is tough.
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E hai quen di que a teoría
de cordas é complexa!
de cordas é complexa!
03:29
(Laughter)
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(Risas)
03:31
Now this is a key number from the copyright mathematicians' toolkit.
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Un número clave nas
matemáticas da propiedade intelectual
matemáticas da propiedade intelectual
03:34
It's the precise amount of harm
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é o dano exacto que sofren
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that comes to media companies
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as compañías do sector
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whenever a single copyrighted song or movie
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cada vez que unha canción ou película
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gets pirated.
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é pirateada.
03:42
Hollywood and Congress derived this number mathematically
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Hollywood e o Congreso deduciron
matemáticamente este número
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back when they last sat down to improve copyright damages
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cando se sentaron para subsanar
os danos causados pola piratería
os danos causados pola piratería
03:48
and made this law.
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e fixeron esta lei.
03:50
Some people think this number's a little bit large,
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Algúns pensan que é esaxerado,
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but copyright mathematicians who are media lobby experts
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pero aos matemático do copyright
expertos en lobbys da industria do entretemento
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are merely surprised
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só están sorprendidos
03:57
that it doesn't get compounded for inflation every year.
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de que non se incluíse
a inflacción anual.
a inflacción anual.
04:00
Now when this law first passed,
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Cando a lei foi aprobada,
04:02
the world's hottest MP3 player could hold just 10 songs.
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o mellor MP3 do mercado tiña capacidade
para 10 cancións.
para 10 cancións.
04:05
And it was a big Christmas hit.
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E foi un gran éxito no Nadal.
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Because what little hoodlum wouldn't want
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Porque, que pequeno rillote non querería
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a million and a half bucks-worth of stolen goods in his pocket.
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bens roubados por 1.5 millóns de dólares?
04:11
(Laughter)
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(Risas)
04:14
(Applause)
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(Aplausos)
04:19
These days an iPod Classic can hold 40,000 songs,
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Hoxe, un iPod clásico pode almacenar unhas
40.000 cancións,
40.000 cancións,
04:22
which is to say eight billion dollars-worth
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ou 8 mil millóns de dólares
04:25
of stolen media.
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en contidos roubados,
04:27
(Applause)
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(Aplausos)
04:29
Or about 75,000 jobs.
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Ou 75.000 empregos,
04:31
(Laughter)
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(Risas)
04:33
(Applause)
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(Aplausos)
04:38
Now you might find copyright math strange,
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Se cadra vedes raras estas
matemáticas do copyright,
matemáticas do copyright,
04:41
but that's because it's a field
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mais iso é porque é un campo,
04:43
that's best left to experts.
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que é mellor deixar aos expertos.
04:45
So that's it for now.
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Isto é todo por agora.
04:47
I hope you'll join me next time
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Espero que vos unades a min na próxima,
04:49
when I will be making an equally scientific and fact-based inquiry
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cando me poña a facer unha análise
científica e razoada
científica e razoada
04:52
into the cost of alien music piracy to he American economy.
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sobre o coste da piratería extraterrestre
na economía dos EEUU.
na economía dos EEUU.
04:55
Thank you very much.
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Moitas grazas
04:57
(Applause)
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(Aplausos)
04:59
Thank you.
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Grazas
05:01
(Applause)
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(Aplausos)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneurRob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody.
Why you should listen
Rob Reid is an author and a serial entrepreneur. He founded the company that created the Rhapsody music website, and his latest book, Year Zero, was published in July 2013. In it, aliens seek to erase the ruinous fines on their vast collections of pirated American music by destroying the Earth. Parts of it are made up. The audiobook version will be read by John Hodgman.
On the TED Blog, read more on the numbers behind Copyright Math >>
Rob Reid | Speaker | TED.com