TED2012
Rob Reid: The $8 billion iPod
Rob Reid：80亿美元的iPod
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漫画作家Rob Reid给大家介绍了版权数学Copyright Math（TM） － 一个基于娱乐产业律师和说客所提供的实际数字的全新研究领域
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneur
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
The recent debate over copyright laws
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最近广为争论的版权法
00:17
like SOPA in the United States
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像美国的SOPA禁止网络盗版法案 (Stop Online Piracy Act)
00:19
and the ACTA agreement in Europe
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和欧洲的ACTA反仿冒贸易协定（Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement）
00:21
has been very emotional.
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都有些感情用事
00:23
And I think some dispassionate, quantitative reasoning
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而且，我觉得引入客观、定量的数据推理
00:26
could really bring a great deal to the debate.
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会对版权法的争论很有帮助
00:28
I'd therefore like to propose
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所以，我想说
00:30
that we employ, we enlist,
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我们要充分利用
00:32
the cutting edge field of copyright math
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这个前沿领域：Copyright Math版权数学
00:34
whenever we approach this subject.
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无论何时谈到有关版权法这个话题
00:36
For instance, just recently
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比如说，就在最近
00:38
the Motion Picture Association revealed
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美国电影协会声明
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that our economy loses 58 billion dollars a year
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盗版一年给我们的经济造成
00:43
to copyright theft.
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的损失有580亿美元
00:46
Now rather than just argue about this number,
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与其对这个数字进行争论，
00:48
a copyright mathematician will analyze it
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版权数学家会分析这个数字
00:51
and he'll soon discover that this money
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他很快就会发现这笔钱
00:53
could stretch from this auditorium
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可以从这个礼堂
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all the way across Ocean Boulevard
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一直堆到海洋大道...
00:57
to the Westin, and then to Mars ...
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再到威斯汀酒店...然后到火星...
01:00
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
01:02
... if we use pennies.
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当然，如果我们用1分硬币来摆这些钱的话
01:05
Now this is obviously a powerful,
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现在看看，这明显是一个强大的
01:07
some might say dangerously powerful, insight.
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有些人甚至会说是极端强大的说法
01:10
But it's also a morally important one.
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但这同时也是一个具有重要道德意义的说法。
01:12
Because this isn't just the hypothetical retail value
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因为这可不是
01:15
of some pirated movies that we're talking about,
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我们常常说到的一些盗版电影的预期零售价
01:17
but this is actual economic losses.
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而是真正的经济损失
01:19
This is the equivalent
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这相当于
01:21
to the entire American corn crop failing
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整个美国玉米种植量的损失
01:23
along with all of our fruit crops,
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还有我们所有的水果作物
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as well as wheat, tobacco,
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还有麦子，烟草
01:28
rice, sorghum --
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大米和高粱－
01:30
whatever sorghum is -- losing sorghum.
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管它是什么高粱——反正我们是损失了的高粱
01:34
But identifying the actual losses to the economy
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但衡量经济上的实际损失
01:37
is almost impossible to do
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几乎是不可能做到的
01:39
unless we use copyright math.
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除非我们用版权数学法
01:41
Now music revenues are down by about eight billion dollars a year
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自从纳普斯特Napster出现之后
01:44
since Napster first came on the scene.
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现在音乐产业的收入每年都下降80亿元
01:46
So that's a chunk of what we're looking for.
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所以这一块就是我们要研究的
01:49
But total movie revenues
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但是整个电影行业的收入
01:51
across theaters, home video and pay-per-view are up.
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包括剧院，家庭影院以及点播购买电视节目的收入在上升
01:53
And TV, satellite and cable revenues are way up.
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还有电视，卫星电视和有线电视的收入上升了很多
01:56
Other content markets like book publishing and radio
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其它内容传播市场，像书籍出版和广播
01:58
are also up.
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的收入也在上升
02:00
So this small missing chunk here
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所以少的这一块
02:02
is puzzling.
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很让人莫名其妙
02:04
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:07
(Applause)
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（掌声）
02:10
Since the big content markets
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由于总体的内容传播市场的收入
02:12
have grown in line with historic norms,
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依照着过去的标准还在增长
02:14
it's not additional growth that piracy has prevented,
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盗版行为并没有阻止它们的继续增长
02:17
but copyright math tells us
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但是版权数学法告诉我们
02:19
it must therefore be foregone growth
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这一定是因为在一个没有历史记录的市场中
02:22
in a market that has no historic norms --
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有某种预料之外的增长
02:24
one that didn't exist in the 90's.
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这个市场在1990年代并不存在
02:26
What we're looking at here
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我们正在看的
02:28
is the insidious cost of ringtone piracy.
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是电话铃声侵权的潜在成本
02:30
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:34
50 billion dollars of it a year,
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500亿美元一年
02:36
which is enough, at 30 seconds a ringtone,
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这已经不少了，一个铃声30秒
02:38
that could stretch from here
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可以从这里一直延伸到
02:40
to Neanderthal times.
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尼安德特人的时代
02:42
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:46
It's true.
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这是真的
02:48
(Applause)
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（掌声）
02:50
I have Excel.
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我可有Excel表格作证
02:52
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:54
The movie folks also tell us
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电影行业的人还告诉我们
02:56
that our economy loses
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我们的经济损失中
02:58
over 370,000 jobs to content theft,
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有超过37，0000的失业是源于内容传播的侵权
03:01
which is quite a lot when you consider that, back in '98,
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如果把这个数字放到1998年，这已经不少了
03:04
the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated
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美国劳工统计局表明
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that the motion picture and video industries
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美国电影协会和视频行业
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were employing 270,000 people.
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雇佣了27,0000名员工
03:11
Other data has the music industry at about 45,000 people.
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其它数据显示音乐行业有大概4,5000人
03:14
And so the job losses that came with the Internet
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而随着网络带来的失业
03:16
and all that content theft,
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以及所有的内容传播侵权
03:18
have therefore left us with negative employment in our content industries.
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给我们的内容市场造成了一个负就业
03:21
And this is just one of the many mind-blowing statistics
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这是众多让人崩溃的统计数字之一
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that copyright mathematicians have to deal with every day.
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版权数学家每天要对付这些数据
03:26
And some people think that string theory is tough.
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可有些人觉得弦理论很难
03:29
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
03:31
Now this is a key number from the copyright mathematicians' toolkit.
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这是版权数学家工具箱里的一个关键数字
03:34
It's the precise amount of harm
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它是每当一个歌曲或电影
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that comes to media companies
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被侵权后
03:38
whenever a single copyrighted song or movie
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给一个传媒公司所带来伤害的
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gets pirated.
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准确数字
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Hollywood and Congress derived this number mathematically
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好莱坞和国会在讨论减少版权损失
03:45
back when they last sat down to improve copyright damages
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和制定版权法的时候
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and made this law.
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用数学方法计算出这个数字
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Some people think this number's a little bit large,
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有些人觉得这数字太大了
03:52
but copyright mathematicians who are media lobby experts
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但是作为传媒界游说专家的版权数学家们
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are merely surprised
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只是惊讶
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that it doesn't get compounded for inflation every year.
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为什么这个数字不会随着通货膨胀而增长
04:00
Now when this law first passed,
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在这项法律通过的时候
04:02
the world's hottest MP3 player could hold just 10 songs.
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全球最热销的MP3播放器也只能存10首歌
04:05
And it was a big Christmas hit.
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而且是圣诞节重磅推出
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Because what little hoodlum wouldn't want
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因为小流氓不会把
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a million and a half bucks-worth of stolen goods in his pocket.
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一个偷来的价值100多万的东西放在兜里
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(Laughter)
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（笑声）
04:14
(Applause)
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（掌声）
04:19
These days an iPod Classic can hold 40,000 songs,
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如今 一个iPod Classic随身听可以存4,0000首歌
04:22
which is to say eight billion dollars-worth
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也就是说，相当于价值80亿美元
04:25
of stolen media.
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的盗版音乐。
04:27
(Applause)
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（掌声）
04:29
Or about 75,000 jobs.
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也相当于7,5000个工作岗位。
04:31
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
04:33
(Applause)
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（掌声）
04:38
Now you might find copyright math strange,
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也许，你现在觉得版权数学很奇怪
04:41
but that's because it's a field
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但这是因为它是一个
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that's best left to experts.
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最适合专家进行研究的领域
04:45
So that's it for now.
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今天就先说这么多
04:47
I hope you'll join me next time
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我希望，下次
04:49
when I will be making an equally scientific and fact-based inquiry
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当我再对国外盗版音乐对美国经济的损失做一个
04:52
into the cost of alien music piracy to he American economy.
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比较科学、以事实为依据的调查时，你们还来听我说
04:55
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢
04:57
(Applause)
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（掌声）
04:59
Thank you.
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谢谢
05:01
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneurRob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody.
Why you should listen
Rob Reid is an author and a serial entrepreneur. He founded the company that created the Rhapsody music website, and his latest book, Year Zero, was published in July 2013. In it, aliens seek to erase the ruinous fines on their vast collections of pirated American music by destroying the Earth. Parts of it are made up. The audiobook version will be read by John Hodgman.
On the TED Blog, read more on the numbers behind Copyright Math >>
Rob Reid | Speaker | TED.com