TED2012
Rob Reid: The $8 billion iPod
Rob Reid: iPod senilai 8 miliar dolar
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Pengarang komik Bob Reid mengungkapkan Matematika Hak Cipta, bidang kajian baru luar biasa yang didasari angka-angka sebenarnya dari pengacara dan pelobi dalam industri hiburan.
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneur
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
The recent debate over copyright laws
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Debat tentang UU Hak Cipta belakangan ini
00:17
like SOPA in the United States
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seperti SOPA di Amerika Serikat
00:19
and the ACTA agreement in Europe
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dan perjanjian ACTA di Eropa
00:21
has been very emotional.
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telah menjadi sangat emosional.
00:23
And I think some dispassionate, quantitative reasoning
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Dan saya rasa alasan netral dan terukur
00:26
could really bring a great deal to the debate.
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dapat berpengaruh besar dalam debat ini.
00:28
I'd therefore like to propose
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Karena itu saya ingin menggagas
00:30
that we employ, we enlist,
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kita menggunakan, mendata
00:32
the cutting edge field of copyright math
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bidang terbaru dalam matematika hak cipta
00:34
whenever we approach this subject.
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kapanpun kita mendekati masalah ini.
00:36
For instance, just recently
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Sebagai contoh, baru-baru ini
00:38
the Motion Picture Association revealed
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Asosiasi Film mengungkapkan
00:40
that our economy loses 58 billion dollars a year
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bahwa kerugian ekonomi kita mencapai 58 miliar dolar per tahun
00:43
to copyright theft.
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karena pencurian hak cipta.
00:46
Now rather than just argue about this number,
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Kini ketimbang memperdebatkan angka ini,
00:48
a copyright mathematician will analyze it
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seorang matematikawan hak cipta akan menganalisisnya
00:51
and he'll soon discover that this money
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dan dia langsung menemukan bahwa uang itu
00:53
could stretch from this auditorium
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dapat membentang dari auditorium ini
00:55
all the way across Ocean Boulevard
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menyeberangi Ocean Boulevard
00:57
to the Westin, and then to Mars ...
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hingga ke Westin, lalu ke Mars ...
01:00
(Laughter)
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(Tawa)
01:02
... if we use pennies.
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... jika kita menggunakan uang logam 1 sen.
01:05
Now this is obviously a powerful,
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Sudah pasti gambaran ini sangat kuat,
01:07
some might say dangerously powerful, insight.
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beberapa mungkin akan menganggapnya berbahaya.
01:10
But it's also a morally important one.
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Namun hal ini juga penting secara moral.
01:12
Because this isn't just the hypothetical retail value
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Karena kita bukan bukan sekedar bicara tentang
01:15
of some pirated movies that we're talking about,
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nilai eceran dari beberapa film-film bajakan
01:17
but this is actual economic losses.
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namun kerugian ekonomi yang sebenarnya.
01:19
This is the equivalent
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Ini setara dengan
01:21
to the entire American corn crop failing
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gagalnya seluruh panen jagung di Amerika
01:23
along with all of our fruit crops,
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bersama dengan gagalnya panen buah-buahan,
01:26
as well as wheat, tobacco,
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dan juga gandum, tembakau,
01:28
rice, sorghum --
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beras, sorgum --
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whatever sorghum is -- losing sorghum.
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apapun itu -- gagalnya panen sorgum.
01:34
But identifying the actual losses to the economy
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Namun menjelaskan kerugian ekonomi yang sebenarnya
01:37
is almost impossible to do
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hampir tidak mungkin
01:39
unless we use copyright math.
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kecuali kita menggunakan matematika hak cipta.
01:41
Now music revenues are down by about eight billion dollars a year
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Kini pendapatan musik turun sekitar 8 miliar dolar per tahun
01:44
since Napster first came on the scene.
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sejak Napster muncul.
01:46
So that's a chunk of what we're looking for.
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Jadi inilah bongkahan yang kita cari.
01:49
But total movie revenues
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Namun jumlah total pendapatan film
01:51
across theaters, home video and pay-per-view are up.
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di semua bioskop, video rumahan, dan video berbayar meningkat.
01:53
And TV, satellite and cable revenues are way up.
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Lalu pendapatan TV, satelit, dan TV kabel juga meningkat.
01:56
Other content markets like book publishing and radio
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Pasar dari konten lainnya seperti penerbitan buku dan radio
01:58
are also up.
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juga meningkat.
02:00
So this small missing chunk here
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Sehingga bongkahan kecil yang hilang di sini
02:02
is puzzling.
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cukup membingungkan.
02:04
(Laughter)
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(Tawa)
02:07
(Applause)
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(Tepuk tangan)
02:10
Since the big content markets
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Karena pasar konten yang besar
02:12
have grown in line with historic norms,
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telah tumbuh bersama dengan norma-norma sejarah,
02:14
it's not additional growth that piracy has prevented,
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maka ini bukanlah berkurangnya pertumbuhan akibat pembajakan,
02:17
but copyright math tells us
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namun matematika hak cipta menyatakan
02:19
it must therefore be foregone growth
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pasti ada pertumbuhan yang hilang
02:22
in a market that has no historic norms --
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di pasar tanpa norma-norma sejarah --
02:24
one that didn't exist in the 90's.
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sesuatu yang tidak ada pada tahun 90-an.
02:26
What we're looking at here
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Di sini kita melihat
02:28
is the insidious cost of ringtone piracy.
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kerugian tersembunyi dari pembajakan nada dering.
02:30
(Laughter)
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(Tawa)
02:34
50 billion dollars of it a year,
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50 miliar dolar setahun,
02:36
which is enough, at 30 seconds a ringtone,
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di mana dengan nada dering selama 30 detik,
02:38
that could stretch from here
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nada dering itu akan terbentang dari saat ini
02:40
to Neanderthal times.
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hingga jaman Neanderthal.
02:42
(Laughter)
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(Tawa)
02:46
It's true.
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Itu benar.
02:48
(Applause)
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(Tepuk tangan)
02:50
I have Excel.
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Saya punya program Excel.
02:52
(Laughter)
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(Tawa)
02:54
The movie folks also tell us
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Teman-teman di perfilman juga berkata
02:56
that our economy loses
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bahwa ekonomi kita rugi
02:58
over 370,000 jobs to content theft,
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lebih dari 370.000 lapangan kerja dari pencurian konten,
03:01
which is quite a lot when you consider that, back in '98,
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yang cukup banyak jika Anda mengingat di tahun '98,
03:04
the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated
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Badan Statistik Tenaga Kerja menunjukkan
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that the motion picture and video industries
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bahwa industri gambar bergerak dan video
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were employing 270,000 people.
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mempekerjakan 270.000 orang.
03:11
Other data has the music industry at about 45,000 people.
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Data lainnya menunjukkan industri musik mempekerjakan 45.000 orang.
03:14
And so the job losses that came with the Internet
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Sehingga lapangan kerja yang hilang karena Internet
03:16
and all that content theft,
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dan semua pencurian konten itu
03:18
have therefore left us with negative employment in our content industries.
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membuat jumlah lapangan pekerjaan pada industri konten menjadi minus.
03:21
And this is just one of the many mind-blowing statistics
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Ini hanyalah salah satu dari banyak statistik yang menghebohkan
03:24
that copyright mathematicians have to deal with every day.
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yang harus dihadapi oleh para matematikawan hak cipta setiap hari.
03:26
And some people think that string theory is tough.
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Dan beberapa orang merasa "teori dawai" itu sulit.
03:29
(Laughter)
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(Tawa)
03:31
Now this is a key number from the copyright mathematicians' toolkit.
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Dan inilah angka kunci dari perangkat para matematikawan hak cipta.
03:34
It's the precise amount of harm
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Inilah jumlah sebenarnya
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that comes to media companies
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yang ditanggung oleh perusahaan media
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whenever a single copyrighted song or movie
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saat sebuah lagu atau film
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gets pirated.
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dibajak.
03:42
Hollywood and Congress derived this number mathematically
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Hollywood dan Kongres menurunkan angka ini secara matematis
03:45
back when they last sat down to improve copyright damages
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saat mereka duduk bersama untuk mengurangi kerusakan akibat hak cipta
03:48
and made this law.
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dan membuat UU ini.
03:50
Some people think this number's a little bit large,
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Beberapa orang merasa angka ini cukup besar
03:52
but copyright mathematicians who are media lobby experts
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namun matematikawan hak cipta yang merupakan ahli perundingan media
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are merely surprised
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cukup terkejut
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that it doesn't get compounded for inflation every year.
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karena angka ini tidak mempertimbangkan inflasi tahunan.
04:00
Now when this law first passed,
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Dan saat hukum ini disetujui,
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the world's hottest MP3 player could hold just 10 songs.
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pemutar MP3 paling bagus di dunia hanya dapat menyimpan 10 lagu.
04:05
And it was a big Christmas hit.
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Perangkat ini tenar sebagai hadiah Natal
04:07
Because what little hoodlum wouldn't want
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Karena penjahat kecil mana yang tidak mau
04:09
a million and a half bucks-worth of stolen goods in his pocket.
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satu setengah juta dolar barang curian di dalam sakunya.
04:11
(Laughter)
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(Tawa)
04:14
(Applause)
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(Tepuk tangan)
04:19
These days an iPod Classic can hold 40,000 songs,
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Saat ini sebuah iPod Classic dapat menyimpan 40.000 lagu
04:22
which is to say eight billion dollars-worth
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yang berarti bernilai 8 miliar dolar
04:25
of stolen media.
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media curian.
04:27
(Applause)
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(Tepuk tangan)
04:29
Or about 75,000 jobs.
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Atau sekitar 75.000 lapangan kerja.
04:31
(Laughter)
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(Tawa)
04:33
(Applause)
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(Tepuk tangan)
04:38
Now you might find copyright math strange,
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Mungkin Anda menganggap matematika hak cipta itu hal aneh
04:41
but that's because it's a field
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namun ini karena bidang ini
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that's best left to experts.
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paling baik diserahkan kepada ahlinya.
04:45
So that's it for now.
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Jadi itu saja saat ini.
04:47
I hope you'll join me next time
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Saya harap Anda bergabung lagi lain kali
04:49
when I will be making an equally scientific and fact-based inquiry
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saat saya menyelidiki kerugian akibat pembajakan musik oleh alien
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into the cost of alien music piracy to he American economy.
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pada ekonomi Amerika Serikat yang berdasarkan fakta dan sama ilmiahnya.
04:55
Thank you very much.
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Terima kasih banyak.
04:57
(Applause)
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(Tepuk tangan)
04:59
Thank you.
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Terima kasih.
05:01
(Applause)
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(Tepuk tangan)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneurRob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody.
Why you should listen
Rob Reid is an author and a serial entrepreneur. He founded the company that created the Rhapsody music website, and his latest book, Year Zero, was published in July 2013. In it, aliens seek to erase the ruinous fines on their vast collections of pirated American music by destroying the Earth. Parts of it are made up. The audiobook version will be read by John Hodgman.
On the TED Blog, read more on the numbers behind Copyright Math >>
Rob Reid | Speaker | TED.com