TED@State
Hans Rosling: Let my dataset change your mindset
Hans Rosling: Dopustite da moji podaci promene vaše mišljenje
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Pričajući letos sa vladom SAD-a, Hans Rosling koristi fascinantni program sa mehurima da bi razbio mit o zemljama u razvoju. Pogledajte nove analize o Kini i spasenim zemljama, pomešane sa novima podacima.
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'm going to talk about your mindset.
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Pričaću o vašem mišljenju.
00:20
Does your mindset correspond to my dataset?
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Da li vaš način razmišljanja odgovara mojim podacima?
00:24
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:25
If not, one or the other needs upgrading, isn't it?
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Ako ne, jedno ili drugo mora da se unapredi, zar ne?
00:28
When I talk to my students about global issues,
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Kada pričam sa mojim studentima o globalnim pitanjima,
00:32
and I listen to them in the coffee break,
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i slušam ih na pauzi za kafu,
00:34
they always talk about "we" and "them."
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uvek spominju 'nas' i 'njih'.
00:37
And when they come back into the lecture room
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I kada se vrate u učionicu
00:40
I ask them, "What do you mean with "we" and "them"?
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pitam ih "Kako mislite 'mi' i 'oni"?.
00:42
"Oh, it's very easy. It's the western world and it's the developing world," they say.
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"Oh pa lako je. Zapadni svet i svet u razvoju." - kažu oni.
00:45
"We learned it in college."
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"Učili smo na koledžu."
00:47
And what is the definition then? "The definition?
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I šta je onda definicija? "Definicija?
00:49
Everyone knows," they say.
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Svi znaju", kažu oni.
00:51
But then you know, I press them like this.
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Ali tada, znate, pritisnem ih ovako.
00:53
So one girl said, very cleverly, "It's very easy.
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I jedna devojka je rekla, vrlo pametno, "Lako je.
00:55
Western world is a long life in a small family.
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Zapadni svet je dug život i mala porodica.
00:58
Developing world is a short life in a large family."
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Svet u razvoju je kratak život i velika porodica.'
01:01
And I like that definition, because it enabled me
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I sviđa mi se ta definicija, jer mi omogućava
01:04
to transfer their mindset
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da prenesem njihovo mišljenje
01:06
into the dataset.
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u podatke.
01:08
And here you have the dataset.
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I imate ovde podatke.
01:10
So, you can see that what we have on this axis here
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I vidite da imamo na ovoj osi ovde
01:12
is size of family. One, two, three, four, five
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veličinu porodice. Jedan, dva, tri, četiri, pet
01:15
children per woman on this axis.
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deteta po ženi na ovoj osi.
01:17
And here, length of life, life expectancy,
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I ovde dužina života, očekivana dužina života,
01:19
30, 40, 50.
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30, 40, 50.
01:21
Exactly what the students said was their concept about the world.
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Upravo ono što su studenti rekli da je njihov koncept o svetu.
01:25
And really this is about the bedroom.
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I ovo je u stvari o spavaćoj sobi.
01:27
Whether the man and woman decide to have small family,
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Da li muškarac i žena odluče da imaju malu porodicu,
01:31
and take care of their kids, and how long they will live.
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i da se brinu o deci, i koliko dugo će da žive.
01:34
It's about the bathroom and the kitchen. If you have soap, water and food, you know,
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Sve je o spavaćoj sobi i kuhinji. Ako imate sapun, vodu i hranu, znate,
01:38
you can live long.
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duže živite.
01:40
And the students were right. It wasn't that the world consisted --
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I studenti su bili u pravu. Nije da se svet sastoji
01:42
the world consisted here, of one set of countries over here,
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ovaj svet ovde,iz jedne grupe zemalja ovde
01:46
which had large families and short life. Developing world.
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koje imaju velike porodice i kratak život. Svet u razvoju.
01:50
And we had one set of countries up there
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I imali smo jedan skup zemalja
01:53
which was the western world.
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koji je Zapadni svet.
01:55
They had small families and long life.
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Imaju male porodice i duži život.
01:58
And you are going to see here
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I videćete ovde
02:00
the amazing thing that has happened in the world during my lifetime.
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neverovatnu stvar koja se desila u svetu za vreme mog života.
02:04
Then the developing countries applied
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I onda su zemlje u razvoju primenile
02:06
soap and water, vaccination.
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sapun i vodu, vakcinisanje.
02:08
And all the developing world started to apply family planning.
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I svet u razvoju je počeo da primenjuje planiranje porodice.
02:11
And partly to USA who help to provide
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I delom zbog SAD-a koji su pomogle
02:13
technical advice and investment.
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tehnološkim savetima i investicijama.
02:16
And you see all the world moves over to a two child family,
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I vidite da se svet kreće prema porodicama sa dvoje dece,
02:20
and a life with 60 to 70 years.
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i životu od 60-70 godina.
02:23
But some countries remain back in this area here.
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Ali neke zemlje ostaju ovde.
02:26
And you can see we still have Afghanistan down here.
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I vidite da je još uvek tu Afganistan.
02:29
We have Liberia. We have Congo.
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Imamo Liberiju. Kongo.
02:32
So we have countries living there.
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Znači imamo zemlje koje žive tu.
02:34
So the problem I had
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Pa je problem koji sam imao
02:36
is that the worldview that my students had
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je da je pogled koji su moju studenti imali
02:40
corresponds to reality in the world
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na svet odgovarao realnosti
02:42
the year their teachers were born.
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godine u kojoj su njihovi profesori rođeni.
02:45
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:48
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
02:51
And we, in fact, when we have played this over the world.
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I ustvari, kada smo puštali ovo u svetu --
02:54
I was at the Global Health Conference here in Washington last week,
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Bio sam na Konferenciji Globalnog Zdravlja u Vašingtonu, prošle nedelje,
02:57
and I could see the wrong concept
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i video sam da pogrešan koncept
03:00
even active people in United States had,
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i dalje imaju aktivni ljudi u SAD-u.
03:03
that they didn't realize the improvement
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Nisu shvatili da napredak
03:06
of Mexico there, and China, in relation to United States.
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u Meksiku, i Kini, u poređenju sa SAD-om.
03:11
Look here when I move them forward.
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Pogledajte kada pomaknem unapred.
03:13
Here we go.
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Idemo.
03:20
They catch up. There's Mexico.
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Stižu ih. Evo ga Meksiko.
03:23
It's on par with United States in these two social dimensions.
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On je na nivou sa SAD-om u ove dve socijalne dimenzije.
03:26
There was less than five percent
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Manje od 5% specijalista
03:28
of the specialists in Global Health that was aware of this.
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u globalnom zdravlju je bilo svesno ovoga.
03:31
This great nation, Mexico,
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Ova velika nacija, Meksiko,
03:33
has the problem that arms are coming from North,
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ima problem da oružje dolazi sa severa,
03:36
across the borders, so they had to stop that,
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preko granice. I morali su da zaustave to.
03:38
because they have this strange relationship to the United States, you know.
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Jer imaju čudan odnos sa SAD-om, znate.
03:42
But if I would change this axis here,
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Ali ako bih promenio ovu osu ovde, vidite,
03:46
I would instead put income per person.
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i na primer bih stavio dohodak po osobi.
03:49
Income per person. I can put that here.
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Dohodak po osobi. Mogu da stavim tu.
03:52
And we will then see
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I videćemo
03:54
a completely different picture.
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kompletno drugačiju sliku.
03:56
By the way, I'm teaching you
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I usput, učim vas
03:58
how to use our website, Gapminder World,
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kako da koristite naš sajt, Gapminder World,
04:00
while I'm correcting this,
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dok ispravljam ovo
04:02
because this is a free utility on the net.
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jer je besplatno na netu.
04:05
And when I now finally got it right,
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I sada kada sam to napravio,
04:08
I can go back 200 years in history.
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mogu da idem 200 godina unazad.
04:12
And I can find United States up there.
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I mogu da nađem SAD ovde gore.
04:16
And I can let the other countries be shown.
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I mogu da pokažem i druge zemlje.
04:19
And now I have income per person on this axis.
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I sada imam dohodak po osobi na ovoj osi.
04:22
And United States only had some, one, two thousand dollars at that time.
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I SAD su imale oko 2 000 dolara, u to vreme.
04:25
And the life expectancy was 35 to 40 years,
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I očekivana dužina života je bila oko 30 do 40 godina,
04:29
on par with Afghanistan today.
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isto kao Afganistan danas.
04:31
And what has happened in the world, I will show now.
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I šta se desilo sa svetom, pokazaću sada.
04:36
This is instead of studying history
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Ovo je umesto jedne godine
04:38
for one year at university.
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studiranja na fakultetu.
04:40
You can watch me for one minute now and you'll see the whole thing.
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Gledajte me jedan minut i videćete celu stvar.
04:43
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
04:45
You can see how the brown bubbles, which is west Europe,
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Vidite kako braon mehurići, a to je zapadna Evropa,
04:50
and the yellow one, which is the United States,
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i zeleni, što je SAD,
04:53
they get richer and richer and also
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bogatiji su sve više i više i
04:55
start to get healthier and healthier.
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počinju da budu zdraviji i zdraviji.
04:57
And this is now 100 years ago,
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I ovo je pre 100 godina
04:59
where the rest of the world remains behind.
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gde ostatak sveta zaostaje.
05:02
Here we come. And that was the influenza.
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I ovde smo. I ovo je bio grip.
05:07
That's why we are so scared about flu, isn't it?
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I zato smo toliko uplašeni od gripa, zar ne?
05:10
It's still remembered. The fall of life expectancy.
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I dalje se pamti. Pad očekivanja dužine života.
05:13
And then we come up. Not until
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I onda se podigne. Ali ne
05:16
independence started.
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pre nezavisnosti.
05:18
Look here You have China over there,
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Pogledajte ovde Kinu,
05:20
you have India over there,
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imate Indiju ovde,
05:22
and this is what has happened.
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i evo šta se desilo.
05:30
Did you note there, that we have Mexico up there?
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Primećujete da imamo Meksiko ovde gore.
05:33
Mexico is not at all on par with the United States,
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Meksiko uopšte nije uz SAD.
05:35
but they are quite close.
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Ali su blizu.
05:37
And especially, it's interesting to see
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I dosta je interesantno za videti
05:39
China and the United States
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Kinu i SAD,
05:41
during 200 years,
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tokom 200 godina.
05:44
because I have my oldest son now working for Google,
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Jer moj najstariji sin sada radi za Google,
05:46
after Google acquired this software.
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nakon što je Google kupio ovaj program.
05:49
Because in fact, this is child labor. My son and his wife sat in a closet
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Ustvari ovo je dečija radna snaga. Moj sin u njegova žena su bili u senci
05:52
for many years and developed this.
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mnogo godina i razvili su ovo.
05:54
And my youngest son, who studied Chinese in Beijing.
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I moj najmlađi sin, koji je studirao kineski u Pekingu.
05:58
So they come in with the two perspectives I have, you know?
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Pa oni imaju 2 različite perspektive. Znate?
06:02
And my son, youngest son who studied in Beijing,
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I moj sin, najmlađi koji je studirao u Pekingu,
06:04
in China, he got a long-term perspective.
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u Kini, dobio je dugotrajnu perspektivu.
06:08
Whereas when my oldest son, who works for Google,
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Dok moj stariji sin, koji radi za Google,
06:10
he should develop by quarter, or by half-year.
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on bi razvijao za četvrtinu ili polovinu godine.
06:14
Or Google is quite generous, so he can have one or two years to go.
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Ili, Google je baš velikodušan, tako da ima jednu ili dve godine.
06:17
But in China they look generation after generation
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Ali u Kini posmatraju generacije
06:19
because they remember
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jer se sećaju
06:22
the very embarrassing period, for 100 years,
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sramotnog perioda od 100 godina
06:24
when they went backwards.
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kad su išli unazad.
06:26
And then they would remember the first part
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Ali bi oni zapamtili prvi deo
06:29
of last century, which was really bad,
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poslednjeg veka, koji je stvarno bio loš.
06:32
and we could go by this so-called Great Leap Forward.
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I posmatraćemo ovaj takozvani 'veliki skok unapred'.
06:35
But this was 1963.
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Ali ovo je bila 1963.
06:37
Mao Tse-Tung eventually brought health to China,
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Mao Tse-Tung je na kraju ipak doneo zdravlje u Kini.
06:41
and then he died, and then Deng Xiaoping started
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I onda je umro. I onda je Deng Xiaoping
06:43
this amazing move forward.
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neverovatno krenuo napred.
06:45
Isn't it strange to see that the United States
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Nije li čudno videti SAD kako je
06:47
first grew the economy, and then gradually got rich?
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prvo razvila ekonomiju, i postepeno se bogatila.
06:51
Whereas China could get healthy much earlier,
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Gde bi Kina mogla biti zdrava mnogo ranije.
06:54
because they applied the knowledge of education, nutrition,
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Jer oni primenjuju znanje iz obrazovanja, ishrane,
06:58
and then also benefits of penicillin
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i bolje im je uz penicilin
07:01
and vaccines and family planning.
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i vakcine, i planiranje porodice.
07:03
And Asia could have social development
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I Azija može da se socijalno razvije
07:06
before they got the economic development.
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pre nego što se ekonomski razvije.
07:09
So to me, as a public health professor,
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Pa meni, kao zdrastvenom profesoru,
07:11
it's not strange that all these countries grow so fast now.
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nije čudno da se ove zemlje sada brzo razvijaju.
07:15
Because what you see here, what you see here
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Jer ono što vidite ovde
07:17
is the flat world of Thomas Friedman,
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je ravna zemlja Tomasa Fridmana.
07:20
isn't it.
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Zar nije?
07:22
It's not really, really flat.
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Nije stvarno ravna.
07:24
But the middle income countries --
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Ali zemlje sa prosečnim primanjima,
07:26
and this is where I suggest to my students,
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i ovo preporučujem mojim studentima,
07:28
stop using the concept "developing world."
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prestaju da koriste koncept 'zemalja u razvoju'.
07:31
Because after all, talking about the developing world
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Jer posle svega, priča o svetu u razvoju
07:34
is like having two chapters in the history of the United States.
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je kao da imamo 2 poglavlja istorije SAD-a.
07:38
The last chapter is about present, and president Obama,
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Poslednje poglavlje je o sadašnjosti i predsedniku Obami.
07:42
and the other is about the past,
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I drugo je o prošlosti.
07:44
where you cover everything from Washington
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Gde je sve pokriveno od Vašingtona
07:46
to Eisenhower.
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do Ajzenhauera.
07:48
Because Washington to Eisenhower,
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Jer od Vašingtona do Ajzenhauera,
07:50
that is what we find in the developing world.
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to je ono što nalazimo u zemljama u razvoju.
07:52
We could actually go to Mayflower
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Zapravo idemo od Mejflaura
07:54
to Eisenhower,
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do Ajzenhauera,
07:56
and that would be put together into a developing world,
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i to bi bilo stavljeno u svetu u razvoju.
07:59
which is rightly growing its cities in a very amazing way,
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Koji razvija gradove na neverovatan način.
08:02
which have great entrepreneurs,
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Koji ima neverovatne investitore,
08:04
but also have the collapsing countries.
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ali takođe zemlje u kolapsu.
08:07
So, how could we make better sense about this?
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Ali kako da bolje razumemo ovo?
08:10
Well, one way of trying is to see whether we could
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Jedan način je da pokušamo da vidimo ako možemo
08:13
look at income distribution.
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da pogledamo raspodelu dohotka.
08:15
This is the income distribution of peoples in the world,
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Ovo je raspodela dohotka naroda u svetu,
08:18
from $1. This is where you have food to eat.
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od jednog dolara. Ovde imate hranu.
08:21
These people go to bed hungry.
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Ovi ljudi idu u krevet gladni.
08:23
And this is the number of people.
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I ovo je broj ljudi.
08:25
This is $10, whether you have a public or a private
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Ovo je 10 dolara, nebitno da li imate javni ili privatni
08:27
health service system. This is where you can
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zdrastveni sistem. Ovde možete
08:29
provide health service for your family and school for your children,
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da obezbedite zdrastvenu uslugu za porodicu, i školu za decu.
08:32
and this is OECD countries:
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I ovo su OECD zemlje.
08:34
Green, Latin America, East Europe.
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Zeleno, Latinska America, Istočna Evropa.
08:36
This is East Asia, and the light blue there is South Asia.
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Ovo je Istočna Azija. I svetlo plavo je Južna Azija.
08:40
And this is how the world changed.
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I ovako se svet promenio.
08:43
It changed like this.
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Promenio se ovako.
08:45
Can you see how it's growing? And how hundreds of millions
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Vidite kako raste? Kako stotine miliona
08:48
and billions is coming out of poverty in Asia?
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i milijardi izlazi iz siromaštva u Aziji?
08:51
And it goes over here?
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I ide ovde.
08:53
And I come now, into projections,
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I sada ulazim u projekcije.
08:55
but I have to stop at the door of Lehman Brothers there, you know, because --
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I sada moram da stanem ovde kod Leman Braće. Znate. Jer...
08:58
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
09:01
that's where the projections are not valid any longer.
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Jer projekcije tamo nisu više validne.
09:03
Probably the world will do this.
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Verovatno će svet uraditi ovo.
09:05
and then it will continue forward like this.
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I onda će se ovako nastaviti.
09:08
But more or less, this is what will happen,
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Ali manje-više će se ovo desiti.
09:10
and we have a world which cannot be looked upon as divided.
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I imamo svet na koji više ne možemo da gledamo kao podeljen.
09:15
We have the high income countries here,
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Imamo ovde zemlje sa velikim primanjima,
09:17
with the United States as a leading power;
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sa SAD kao vodećom silom.
09:20
we have the emerging economies in the middle,
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Imamo u sredini zemlje koje se razvijaju,
09:23
which provide a lot of the funding for the bailout;
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koje dosta finansijski obezbeđuju pomoć.
09:25
and we have the low income countries here.
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I ovde imamo zemlje sa malim primanjima.
09:28
Yeah, this is a fact that from where the money comes,
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Da, činjenica je da odavde dolazi novac.
09:31
they have been saving, you know, over the last decade.
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Štedeli su, znate, poslednjih 10 godina.
09:33
And here we have the low income countries
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I ovde imamo zemlje sa malim primanjima
09:35
where entrepreneurs are.
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gde su investitori.
09:37
And here we have the countries in collapse and war,
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I ovde imamo zemlje u kolapsu i ratu,
09:40
like Afghanistan, Somalia, parts of Congo, Darfur.
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kao Afganistan, Somalija, deo Konga, Darfur.
09:45
We have all this at the same time.
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Sve ovo imamo istovremeno.
09:47
That's why it's so problematic to describe what has happened
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Zato je problematično opisati šta se desilo
09:49
in the developing world.
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u svetu u razvoju.
09:51
Because it's so different, what has happened there.
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Jer je tako različito, šta se tamo desilo.
09:53
And that's why I suggest
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I zato sam predložio
09:55
a slightly different approach of what you would call it.
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malo drugačiji prilaz od onoga kako biste ste već nazvali.
09:58
And you have huge differences within countries also.
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I imate velike razlike i unutar zemalja.
10:02
I heard that your departments here were by regions.
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Odseci ovde su regioni.
10:05
Here you have Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia,
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Imate ovde Sub-Saharsku Afriku, Južnu Aziju,
10:08
East Asia, Arab states,
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Istočnu Aziju, Arapske zemlje,
10:10
East Europe, Latin America, and OECD.
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Istočnu Evropu, Latinsku Ameriku, i OECD.
10:12
And on this axis, GDP.
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I na ovoj osi je dohodak.
10:14
And on this, heath, child survival,
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I na ovoj, zdravlje, koliko dece preživi.
10:16
and it doesn't come as a surprise
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I nije čudno da
10:18
that Africa south of Sahara is at the bottom.
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Afrika, južna Sahara, je na dnu.
10:21
But when I split it, when I split it
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Ali ako podelim
10:23
into country bubbles,
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na mehuriće
10:25
the size of the bubbles here is the population.
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veličina mehurića je populacija.
10:28
Then you see Sierra Leone and Mauritius, completely different.
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I vidite da su Siera Leone i Mauricijus kompletno različiti.
10:31
There is such a difference within Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Postoji takva razlika unutar Sub-Saharske Afrike.
10:33
And I can split the others. Here is the South Asian,
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I mogu da razdvojim druge. Ovde je Južna Azija,
10:36
Arab world.
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Arapski svet.
10:38
Now all your different departments.
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Sada različiti odseci.
10:40
East Europe, Latin America, and OECD countries.
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Istočna Evropa, Latinska Amerika, i OECD zemlje.
10:43
And here were are. We have a continuum in the world.
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I ovde smo. Imamo kotinuum u svetu.
10:46
We cannot put it into two parts.
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Ne možemo da podelimo.
10:48
It is Mayflower down here. It is Washington here,
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Ovde dole je Mejfauer. Ovde je Vašington,
10:51
building, building countries.
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zemlje koje se grade.
10:53
It's Lincoln here, advancing them.
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Ovde je Linkoln, koji ih savetuje.
10:57
It's Eisenhower bringing modernity into the countries.
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Ovo Ajzenhauer donosi novitete u zemlje.
11:00
And then it's United States today, up here.
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I ovo su SAD, gore.
11:02
And we have countries all this way.
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I tako imamo zemlje.
11:04
Now, this is the important thing
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I sada bitna stvar
11:07
of understanding how the world has changed.
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razumevanja kako se svet promenio.
11:11
At this point I decided to make a pause.
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U ovom momentu sam odlučio da napravim pauzu.
11:15
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
11:17
And it is my task, on behalf of the rest of the world,
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I to je moj zadatak, u ime ostatka sveta,
11:20
to convey a thanks to the U.S. taxpayers,
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da prenesem zahvalnost američkim poreskim obaveznicima,
11:24
for Demographic Health Survey.
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za Demografsko Zdrastveno istaživanje.
11:26
Many are not aware of -- no, this is not a joke.
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Mnogi nisu svesni da -- ovo nije šala.
11:29
This is very serious.
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Ovo je ozbiljno.
11:31
It is due to USA's continuous sponsoring
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Zahvaljujući SAD-ovom stalnom sponzorstvu
11:35
during 25 years of the very good methodology
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tokom 25 godina i dobroj metodologiji
11:38
for measuring child mortality
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za merenje smrtnosti dece
11:40
that we have a grasp of what's happening in the world.
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gde možemo da shvatimo šta se dešava u svetu.
11:43
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
11:50
And it is U.S. government at its best,
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I to je najbolje od SAD vlade,
11:53
without advocacy, providing facts,
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bez pravnika, činjenica,
11:56
that it's useful for the society.
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i korisno je za društvo.
11:58
And providing data free of charge
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I besplatni podaci,
12:01
on the internet, for the world to use. Thank you very much.
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na internetu, da se svet koristi. Hvala puno.
12:04
Quite the opposite of the World Bank,
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Potpuno suprotno od Svetske Banke,
12:06
who compiled data with government money,
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koja je sastavila podatke sa vladinim novcem,
12:09
tax money, and then they sell it to add a little profit,
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od poreza, i onda ih prodaju za malo profita,
12:12
in a very inefficient, Gutenberg way.
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na veoma neefikasni način, Gutenbergov način.
12:15
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
12:21
But the people doing that at the World Bank
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Ali ljudi koji to rade u svetskoj banci
12:23
are among the best in the world.
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su među najboljima u svetu.
12:25
And they are highly skilled professionals.
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I veoma su vešti profesionalci.
12:27
It's just that we would like to upgrade our international agencies
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Samo bi voleli da unaredimo naše internacionalne agencije
12:31
to deal with the world in the modern way, as we do.
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kako bi se bavili svetom na moderan način, kao što mi radimo.
12:34
And when it comes to free data and transparency,
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I kada su u pitanju besplatni podaci i transparentnost,
12:37
United States of America is one of the best.
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SAD je jedna od najboljih.
12:40
And that doesn't come easy from the mouth of a Swedish public health professor.
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I to nije lako reći za jednog švedskog državnog profesora zdravlja.
12:43
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
12:46
And I'm not paid to come here, no.
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I nisam plaćen da dođem ovde, ne.
12:49
I would like to show you what happens with the data,
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Želim da vam pokažem šta se dešava sa podacima,
12:51
what we can show with this data.
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šta možemo da pokažemo da ovim podacima.
12:53
Look here. This is the world.
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Pogledajte ovde. Ovo je svet.
12:55
With income down there and child mortality.
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Sa primanjima dole, i smrtnosti dece.
12:57
And what has happened in the world?
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I šta se desilo sa svetom.
12:59
Since 1950, during the last 50 years
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Od 1950, tokom 50 godina
13:02
we have had a fall in child mortality.
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imamo pad u smrtnosti dece.
13:05
And it is the DHS that makes it possible to know this.
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I DHS omogućuje ovo.
13:07
And we had an increase in income.
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I imamo porast u primanjima.
13:09
And the blue former developing countries
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I plave bivše zemlje u razvoju
13:11
are mixing up with the former industrialized western world.
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se mešaju sa bivšim industrijalizovanim zapadnim zemljama.
13:16
We have a continuum. But we still have, of course,
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I imamo kontinuum. Ali i dalje imamo, naravno,
13:19
Congo, up there. We still have as poor countries
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Kongo, ovde gore. I dalje imamo siromašne zemlje
13:22
as we have had, always, in history.
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kako smo i uvek imali kroz istoriju.
13:26
And that's the bottom billion, where we've heard today
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I to je donjih milijardu, gde smo čuli, danas,
13:29
about a completely new approach to do it.
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o kompletno novom pristupu.
13:32
And how fast has this happened?
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I koliko brzo se ovo desilo?
13:35
Well, MDG 4.
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Pa MDG 4.
13:37
The United States has not been so eager
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SAD nisu baš željne da
13:39
to use MDG 4.
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koriste MDG 4.
13:42
But you have been the main sponsor that has enabled us to measure it,
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Ali vi ste bili glavni sponzori koji su nam omogućili da to izmerimo.
13:45
because it's the only child mortality that we can measure.
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Jer možemo da merimo samo smrtnost dece.
13:48
And we used to say that it should fall four percent per year.
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I govorili smo da bi palo za 4 procenta za godinu dana.
13:51
Let's see what Sweden has done.
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Da vidimo šta je Švedska uradila.
13:53
We used to boast about fast social progress.
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Nekad smo se hvalili sa brzim socijalnim napretkom.
13:56
That's where we were, 1900.
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Ovo je gde smo bili, 1900.
13:58
1900, Sweden was there.
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1900, Švedska je bila ovde.
14:00
Same child mortality as Bangladesh had, 1990,
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Ista smrtnost dece kao što je Bangladeš imao, 1990.
14:02
though they had lower income.
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Iako su imali mala primanja.
14:04
They started very well. They used the aid well.
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Lepo su počeli. Dobro su iskoristili zdrastvenu pomoć.
14:07
They vaccinated the kids. They get better water.
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Vakcionisali su decu. Imaju bolju vodu.
14:09
And they reduced child mortality,
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Smanjili su smrtnost dece,
14:11
with an amazing 4.7 percent per year. They beat Sweden.
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na neverovatnih 4.7% godišnje. Pobedili su Švedsku.
14:14
I run Sweden the same 16 year period.
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Pustio sam Švedsku istih 16 godina.
14:18
Second round, it's Sweden, 1916,
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Druga runda je Švedska 1919,
14:20
against Egypt, 1990.
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protiv Egipta 1990.
14:22
Here we go. Once again the USA is part of the reason here.
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Idemo. Još jednom je SAD deo razloga ovde.
14:25
They get safe water, they get food for the poor,
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Nabavili su bezbednu vodu. Nabavili su hranu za gladne.
14:29
and they get malaria eradicated.
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I iskorenili su malariju.
14:31
5.5 percent. They are faster than the millennium development goal.
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5.5%. Brži su od milenijumskog razvojnog cilja.
14:34
And third chance for Sweden, against Brazil here.
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I treća šansa za Švdesku, protiv Brazila.
14:37
Brazil here has amazing social improvement
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I Brazil ovde ima neverovatan socijalni napredak
14:41
over the last 16 years,
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tokom poslednjih 16 godina.
14:43
and they go faster than Sweden.
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I idu brže od Švedske.
14:45
This means that the world is converging.
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To znači da svet ide ka jednog tački.
14:47
The middle income countries,
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Zemlje sa srednjim primanjima,
14:49
the emerging economy, they are catching up.
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ekonomije u razvoju, one stižu.
14:51
They are moving to cities,
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Sele se u gradove,
14:53
where they also get better assistance for that.
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gde će dobiti isto bolju podršku.
14:55
Well the Swedish students protest at this point.
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Šta Švedska radi je protestovanje u ovom trenutku.
14:58
They say, "This is not fair,
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Oni kažu, 'Ovo nije fer,
15:00
because these countries had vaccines and antibiotics
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jer su ove zemlje imale vakcine i antibiotike
15:02
that were not available for Sweden.
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koji nisu bile dostupne u Švedskoj.
15:04
We have to do real-time competition."
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Moramo da napravimo takmičenje u realnom vremenu.'
15:06
Okay. I give you Singapore, the year I was born.
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Ok. Dajem vam Singapur, godine koje sam ja rođen.
15:09
Singapore had twice the child mortality of Sweden.
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Singapur je imao 2 puta veću smrtnost dece nego Švedska.
15:11
It's the most tropical country in the world,
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To je najviše tropska zemlja u svetu.
15:13
a marshland on the equator.
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Šipražje na ekvatoru.
15:15
And here we go. It took a little time for them to get independent.
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Idemo. Trebalo im je malo vremena da postanu nezavisni.
15:18
But then they started to grow their economy.
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Ali su počeli da razvijaju ekonomiju.
15:20
And they made the social investment. They got away malaria.
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I socijalno su investirali. Otarasili su se malarije.
15:22
They got a magnificent health system
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Dobili su neverovatan zdrastveni sistem
15:24
that beat both the U.S. and Sweden.
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koji je pobedio i SAD i Švedsku.
15:26
We never thought it would happen that they would win over Sweden!
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Nikad nismo mislili da bi pobedili Švedsku.
15:29
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
15:37
All these green countries are achieving millennium development goals.
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Sve ove zelene zemlje postižu milenijumski razvojni cilj.
15:40
These yellow are just about to be doing this.
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Ove žute su blizu toga.
15:42
These red are the countries that doesn't do it, and the policy has to be improved.
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Ove crvene koje to ne rade, i politika mora da se promeni.
15:45
Not simplistic extrapolation.
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Ne baš jednostavno predviđanje.
15:48
We have to really find a way
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Stvarno moramo da nađemo način
15:50
of supporting those countries in a better way.
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pa podržimo ove zemlje na bolji način.
15:52
We have to respect the middle income countries
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Moramo da poštujemo ono što zemlje sa srednjim primanjima
15:55
on what they are doing.
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rade.
15:57
And we have to fact-base the whole way we look at the world.
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I moramo da podacima podržimo naš pogled na svet.
16:00
This is dollar per person. This is HIV in the countries.
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Ovo je dolar po osobi. Ovo je HIV u zemljama.
16:03
The blue is Africa.
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Plavo je Afrika.
16:05
The size of the bubbles is how many are HIV affected.
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Veličina mehura je koliko ljudi je inficirano HIV-om.
16:08
You see the tragedy in South Africa there.
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Vidite tragediju u Južnoj Africi.
16:10
About 20 percent of the adult population are infected.
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Oko 20% odraslih je inficirano.
16:13
And in spite of them having quite a high income,
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I uprkos njihovim velikim primanjima
16:16
they have a huge number of HIV infected.
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imaju veliki broj zaraženih HIV-om.
16:19
But you also see that there are African countries down here.
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Ali isto vidite da su ovde dole afričke zemlje.
16:22
There is no such thing as an HIV epidemic in Africa.
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Ne postoji takva stvar kao HIV epidemija u Africi.
16:26
There's a number, five to 10 countries in Africa
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Postoji broj, 5 do 10 afričkih zemalja
16:29
that has the same level as Sweden and United States.
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su istog nivoa kao Švedska i SAD.
16:32
And there are others who are extremely high.
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I ima onih koje se ekstremno visoke.
16:34
And I will show you that what has happened
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I pokazaću vam šta se desilo
16:37
in one of the best countries, with the most vibrant economy
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u jednoj od najboljih zemalja, sa najvibrantnijoj ekonomiji
16:41
in Africa and a good governance, Botswana.
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u Africi, i sa dobrom ekonomijom, Bocvanom.
16:44
They have a very high level. It's coming down.
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Imaju veoma visoki nivo. Ide dole.
16:46
But now it's not falling,
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Ali sada ne pada.
16:48
because there, with help from PEPFAR,
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Jer tamo, uz pomoć PEPFAR
16:50
it's working with treatment. And people are not dying.
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radi uz terapiju. I ljudi ne umiru.
16:53
And you can see it's not that easy,
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I vidite da nije lako,
16:56
that it is war which caused this.
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to je rat prouzrokovao.
16:59
Because here, in Congo, there is war.
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Jer ovde, u Kongu, bio je rat.
17:01
And here, in Zambia, there is peace.
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I ovde, u Zambiji, je mir.
17:04
And it's not the economy. Richer country has a little higher.
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I nije u pitanju ekonomija. Bogatije zemlje imaju malo više.
17:07
If I split Tanzania in its income,
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I ako podelim Tanzaniju u prihodima.
17:09
the richer 20 percent in Tanzania
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Bogatiji 20 % u Tanzaniji
17:11
has more HIV than the poorest one.
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imaju više HIV-a od siromašnih.
17:13
And it's really different within each country.
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I stvarno je drugačije unutar zemlje.
17:16
Look at the provinces of Kenya. They are very different.
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Pogledajte provincije Kenije. Veoma su različite.
17:18
And this is the situation you see.
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I ovo je situacija koju vidite.
17:21
It's not deep poverty. It's the special situation,
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Nije duboko siromaštvo. Specifična je situacija.
17:24
probably of concurrent sexual partnership
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Verovatno zbog više seksualnih partnera
17:27
among part of the heterosexual population
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među heteroseksualnom populacijom
17:30
in some countries, or some parts of countries,
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u nekim zemljama, ili nekim delovima zemlje,
17:32
in south and eastern Africa.
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u južnoj i istočnoj Africi.
17:34
Don't make it Africa. Don't make it a race issue.
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Ne radite to u Africi. Nije u pitanju rasa.
17:37
Make it a local issue. And do prevention at each place,
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Ovo je lokalno pitanje. I korišćenje zaštite u svakom mestu,
17:41
in the way it can be done there.
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na način kako može tamo da se izvede.
17:43
So to just end up,
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I da završim.
17:46
there are things of suffering
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Milijardu najsiromašnijih pate
17:49
in the one billion poorest, which we don't know.
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pate od stvari za koje ne znamo.
17:52
Those who live beyond the cellphone,
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Oni koji žive bez mobilnog telefona,
17:54
those who have yet to see a computer,
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oni koji tek treba da vide kompjuter,
17:56
those who have no electricity at home.
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oni koji nemaju struju u kući.
17:59
This is the disease, Konzo, I spent 20 years
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Ovo je bolest Konzo, potrošio sam 20 godina
18:01
elucidating in Africa.
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razjašnjavajući u Africi.
18:03
It's caused by fast processing of toxic cassava root in famine situation.
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Uzrokovano je brzim procesiranjem toksičnih Manikoa korena, u slučaju gladi.
18:08
It's similar to the pellagra epidemic in Mississippi in the '30s.
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Slično je epidemiji pelagre u Misisipiju, 30ih godina.
18:12
It's similar to other nutritional diseases.
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Slično je bolestima usled ishrane.
18:15
It will never affect a rich person.
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Nikad neće pogoditi bogatog čoveka.
18:17
We have seen it here in Mozambique.
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Videli smo to ovde u Mozambikeu.
18:20
This is the epidemic in Mozambique. This is an epidemic in northern Tanzania.
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Ovo je epidemija u Mozambikeu. Ovo je epidemija u severnoj Tanzaniji.
18:23
You never heard about the disease.
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Nikada niste čuli za ovu bolest.
18:25
But it's much more than Ebola
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Više ljudi nego ebolom
18:27
that has been affected by this disease.
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je pogođeno ovom bolešću.
18:29
Cause crippling throughout the world.
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Uzrokovalo je sakćenje širom sveta.
18:31
And over the last two years,
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I poslednje 2 godine
18:33
2,000 people has been crippled
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2 000 ljudi je osakaćeno
18:35
in the southern tip of Bandundu region.
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u južnom delu Bandunda regiona.
18:37
That used to be the illegal diamond trade,
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Tu se nekada iligalno trgovalo dijamantima,
18:39
from the UNITA-dominated area in Angola.
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iz dela u Angoli gde je dominirala UNITA.
18:42
That has now disappeared,
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Sada je to nestalo.
18:44
and they are now in great economic problem.
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I oni su sada u velikom ekonomskom problemu.
18:46
And one week ago, for the first time,
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I pre jedne nedelje, po prvi put,
18:49
there were four lines on the Internet.
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bile su 4 linije na internetu.
18:52
Don't get confused of the progress of the emerging economies
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Nemojte se buniti progresom ekonomija u razvijanju,
18:55
and the great capacity
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i velikih kapaciteta
18:58
of people in the middle income countries
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ljudi u zemljama sa srednjim primanjima,
19:00
and in peaceful low income countries.
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i mirnih zemalja sa malim primanjima.
19:02
There is still mystery in one billion.
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I dalje stoji misterija od jedne milijarde.
19:04
And we have to have more concepts
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I moramo da imamo više koncepta
19:06
than just developing countries and developing world.
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nego samo zemlje i svet u razvoju.
19:09
We need a new mindset. The world is converging,
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Treba nam novi način razmišljanja. Svet se kreće ka jednoj tački.
19:12
but -- but -- but not the bottom billion.
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Ali, ali, ali, ne milijardu na dnu.
19:15
They are still as poor as they've ever been.
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Još uvek su siromašniji kao nikad pre.
19:18
It's not sustainable, and it will not happen around one superpower.
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To nije održivo.Ali se to neće desiti oko jedne supermoći.
19:23
But you will remain
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Ali ćete vi ostati
19:25
one of the most important superpowers,
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jedna od najbitnijih supremoći.
19:28
and the most hopeful superpower, for the time to be.
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I za ubuduće, supermoć u koju se nadamo.
19:31
And this institution
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I ova institucija
19:33
will have a very crucial role,
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će imati ključnu ulogu,
19:35
not for United States, but for the world.
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ne za SAD, već za svet.
19:37
So you have a very bad name,
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Ali imate loše ime,
19:40
State Department. This is not the State Department.
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Vlada SAD-a, ali nije Vlada SAD-.
19:42
It's the World Department.
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Nego je Vlada Sveta.
19:44
And we have a high hope in you. Thank you very much.
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Imamo veliku nadu u vama. Hvala vam puno.
19:46
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com