TED@State
Hans Rosling: Let my dataset change your mindset
汉斯罗素林：让我来数据化你的心态
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在这个夏天里的美国国家部门的演讲里，汉斯罗素林用他的神奇的泡泡数据来打破了对发展中国家的误解。一个混合了传统数据演讲和中国以及后救助世界的新的分析。
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'm going to talk about your mindset.
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我会来谈谈你们的心态。
00:20
Does your mindset correspond to my dataset?
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看看你们的心态和我的数据是相符合的吗？
00:24
(Laughter)
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（笑）
00:25
If not, one or the other needs upgrading, isn't it?
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如果不是，其中的一个就需要升级了，对吗？
00:28
When I talk to my students about global issues,
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当我和我的学生在谈论全球问题时，
00:32
and I listen to them in the coffee break,
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我是在喝咖啡的时候听他们谈论的。
00:34
they always talk about "we" and "them."
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他们经常会谈论“我们”和“他们”。
00:37
And when they come back into the lecture room
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然后当他们回到上课的地方的时候，
00:40
I ask them, "What do you mean with "we" and "them"?
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我问他们，“你们说‘我们’和‘他们’是什么意思”?
00:42
"Oh, it's very easy. It's the western world and it's the developing world," they say.
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“啊，那很简单，就是西方世界和发展中国家”，他们说到。
00:45
"We learned it in college."
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“我们在大学里学到的。”
00:47
And what is the definition then? "The definition?
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那定义是什么呢？“定义？
00:49
Everyone knows," they say.
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每个人都知道，”他们说到，
00:51
But then you know, I press them like this.
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但是你知道，我向这样给他们施加压力。
00:53
So one girl said, very cleverly, "It's very easy.
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所以，一个女孩说到，十分聪明的，“这很简单。
00:55
Western world is a long life in a small family.
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西方国家是在一个小家庭里拥有较长的寿命。
00:58
Developing world is a short life in a large family."
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发展中国家是在一个大家庭里有较短的寿命。“
01:01
And I like that definition, because it enabled me
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我喜欢这样的定义因为这让我可以去
01:04
to transfer their mindset
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将他们的心态转换
01:06
into the dataset.
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到我的数据中。
01:08
And here you have the dataset.
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这里你有数据。
01:10
So, you can see that what we have on this axis here
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你可以看到这个坐标轴代表着
01:12
is size of family. One, two, three, four, five
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家庭的大小。每个妇女有一，二，三，四，五
01:15
children per woman on this axis.
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个小孩在这个坐标轴上。
01:17
And here, length of life, life expectancy,
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在这里，是生命的长度，预期寿命，
01:19
30, 40, 50.
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30、40、50.
01:21
Exactly what the students said was their concept about the world.
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这就正是我的学生概念中的世界。
01:25
And really this is about the bedroom.
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而这也和卧室有关。
01:27
Whether the man and woman decide to have small family,
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男人和女人决定他们是否创造一个小的家庭，
01:31
and take care of their kids, and how long they will live.
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是否去照顾他们的孩子，以及他们的寿命长短。
01:34
It's about the bathroom and the kitchen. If you have soap, water and food, you know,
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是和卧室和厨房有关。如果你有肥皂，水和食物，你知道，
01:38
you can live long.
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你可以活的长点。
01:40
And the students were right. It wasn't that the world consisted --
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学生们是对的。这不是世界所包括的--
01:42
the world consisted here, of one set of countries over here,
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世界所包括的在这里，一组在这里的国家，
01:46
which had large families and short life. Developing world.
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他们有较大的家庭和较短的寿命。发展中国家。
01:50
And we had one set of countries up there
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然后我们在这上面有一组国家
01:53
which was the western world.
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是西方国家。
01:55
They had small families and long life.
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他们有较小的家庭和较长的寿命。
01:58
And you are going to see here
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然后你会看到在这里
02:00
the amazing thing that has happened in the world during my lifetime.
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发生的奇妙的事情，那就是在这个世界上在我有生之年发生的。
02:04
Then the developing countries applied
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发展中国家应用了
02:06
soap and water, vaccination.
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肥皂和水，疫苗。
02:08
And all the developing world started to apply family planning.
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以及所有的发展中国家都应用了家庭计划。
02:11
And partly to USA who help to provide
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美国也一部分的参与帮助去提供
02:13
technical advice and investment.
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技术建议和投资。
02:16
And you see all the world moves over to a two child family,
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而且你可以看到世界上所有的家庭都向两个小孩移去，
02:20
and a life with 60 to 70 years.
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也向60到70的寿命移去。
02:23
But some countries remain back in this area here.
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但是有些国家还是在原来这里的地方。
02:26
And you can see we still have Afghanistan down here.
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然后你可以看到阿富汗还是在那底下。
02:29
We have Liberia. We have Congo.
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我们还有黎巴嫩。有刚果。
02:32
So we have countries living there.
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所以我们还有国家生活在那里。
02:34
So the problem I had
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所以我的问题是
02:36
is that the worldview that my students had
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我学生所有的世界观
02:40
corresponds to reality in the world
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还停留在他们老师所
02:42
the year their teachers were born.
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出生的年代。
02:45
(Laughter)
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（笑）
02:48
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
02:51
And we, in fact, when we have played this over the world.
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当我们，实际上，我们已经在全世界展示了这个。
02:54
I was at the Global Health Conference here in Washington last week,
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上个星期，我在华盛顿的世界健康会议上，
02:57
and I could see the wrong concept
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而且我可以看到，甚至是在美国活跃人物上
03:00
even active people in United States had,
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都有这样的错误的概念。
03:03
that they didn't realize the improvement
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他们没有意识到墨西哥，中国
03:06
of Mexico there, and China, in relation to United States.
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相对与美国的进步。
03:11
Look here when I move them forward.
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看这里，当我把他们向前移动时。
03:13
Here we go.
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开始了。
03:20
They catch up. There's Mexico.
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他们迎头赶上。这是墨西哥。
03:23
It's on par with United States in these two social dimensions.
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在这两个社会层面是和美国一样的。
03:26
There was less than five percent
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这里要注意的是，
03:28
of the specialists in Global Health that was aware of this.
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全球健康专家中，只有少于5%的人意识到这一点。
03:31
This great nation, Mexico,
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这个伟大的国家，墨西哥，
03:33
has the problem that arms are coming from North,
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问题是大量武器来自北方，
03:36
across the borders, so they had to stop that,
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穿越边界。所以他们必须制止这一点。
03:38
because they have this strange relationship to the United States, you know.
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因为，你知道，他们和美国有的奇怪的关系。
03:42
But if I would change this axis here,
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但是如果我把坐标轴换一下，看，
03:46
I would instead put income per person.
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除了这样做，这里，我会把每个人的收入放上。
03:49
Income per person. I can put that here.
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人均收入。我可以放在这里。
03:52
And we will then see
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然后我们会看到
03:54
a completely different picture.
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一个完全不同的图片。
03:56
By the way, I'm teaching you
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顺便说一下，我在教你们
03:58
how to use our website, Gapminder World,
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怎么使用我们的网站，Gapminder World（代沟提醒世界）。
04:00
while I'm correcting this,
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我为什么会纠正这个？
04:02
because this is a free utility on the net.
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因为这是在网上的一个免费设备。
04:05
And when I now finally got it right,
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而且我终于把它做对了，
04:08
I can go back 200 years in history.
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我可以在历史上回去200年。
04:12
And I can find United States up there.
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这样我可以在上面这里找到美国。
04:16
And I can let the other countries be shown.
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而且我可以显示其他的国家。
04:19
And now I have income per person on this axis.
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现在我在这个坐标轴上有人均收入。
04:22
And United States only had some, one, two thousand dollars at that time.
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美国每个人只有2000美元，在那时。
04:25
And the life expectancy was 35 to 40 years,
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而且寿命的期望值是35到40年，
04:29
on par with Afghanistan today.
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是和阿富汗的今天一样的。
04:31
And what has happened in the world, I will show now.
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我现在马上要展示的，就是世界发生了什么。
04:36
This is instead of studying history
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这不是在学习历史
04:38
for one year at university.
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而是在大学里的一年。
04:40
You can watch me for one minute now and you'll see the whole thing.
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你可以看我一分钟，然后你就会看到一切。
04:43
(Laughter)
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（笑）
04:45
You can see how the brown bubbles, which is west Europe,
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你可以看到这些棕色的气泡，是西欧，
04:50
and the yellow one, which is the United States,
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这些黄色的是美国，
04:53
they get richer and richer and also
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他们是怎样变的越来越富有，
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start to get healthier and healthier.
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同时是这样变的越来越健康。
04:57
And this is now 100 years ago,
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现在这个是100年前
04:59
where the rest of the world remains behind.
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当世界其他的国家都还是落后时。
05:02
Here we come. And that was the influenza.
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我们开始了。那就是大流感。
05:07
That's why we are so scared about flu, isn't it?
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那就是我们为什么会这么害怕流感，对吗？
05:10
It's still remembered. The fall of life expectancy.
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我们仍然记得。寿命的缩短。
05:13
And then we come up. Not until
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然后我们又上升了。直到
05:16
independence started.
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我们独立。
05:18
Look here You have China over there,
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看看你在这里有中国，
05:20
you have India over there,
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在那里有印度，
05:22
and this is what has happened.
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这就是所发生的。
05:30
Did you note there, that we have Mexico up there?
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你可以注意到，我们在这上面有墨西哥。
05:33
Mexico is not at all on par with the United States,
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墨西哥和美国不是完全一样的。
05:35
but they are quite close.
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但是他们是十分接近。
05:37
And especially, it's interesting to see
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而且在这200年里去看看
05:39
China and the United States
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美国和中国
05:41
during 200 years,
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是十分有趣的。
05:44
because I have my oldest son now working for Google,
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因为现在我的大儿子在谷歌工作，
05:46
after Google acquired this software.
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当谷歌收购了这款软件后。
05:49
Because in fact, this is child labor. My son and his wife sat in a closet
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因为这时间上是用了童工。我的儿子和妻子在衣橱里
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for many years and developed this.
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花了很多时间来开发这个。
05:54
And my youngest son, who studied Chinese in Beijing.
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而我的小儿子，在北京学习中文。
05:58
So they come in with the two perspectives I have, you know?
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所以我有他们的两个不同的观点，你知道？
06:02
And my son, youngest son who studied in Beijing,
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我的儿子，在北京学习的最小的那一个。
06:04
in China, he got a long-term perspective.
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在中国，他有一个长期的观点。
06:08
Whereas when my oldest son, who works for Google,
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而在谷歌工作的大儿子，
06:10
he should develop by quarter, or by half-year.
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他得在一季度，或半年里开发成功。
06:14
Or Google is quite generous, so he can have one or two years to go.
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或者谷歌是十分大方的，所以他可以有一年或两年。
06:17
But in China they look generation after generation
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但是在中国，你看的是一代又一代的时间
06:19
because they remember
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因为他们记得
06:22
the very embarrassing period, for 100 years,
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那100年十分尴尬的历史，
06:24
when they went backwards.
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那时间他们向后退了。
06:26
And then they would remember the first part
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而且他们也记得最后一个世纪的
06:29
of last century, which was really bad,
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开端是十分不好的。
06:32
and we could go by this so-called Great Leap Forward.
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我们把这叫做大跃进。
06:35
But this was 1963.
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但是在1963年。
06:37
Mao Tse-Tung eventually brought health to China,
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毛泽东终于把健康带入了中国。
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and then he died, and then Deng Xiaoping started
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然后就去世了。然后是邓小平开始
06:43
this amazing move forward.
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了这奇妙的进步。
06:45
Isn't it strange to see that the United States
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难道这不很奇怪吗？看到美国是
06:47
first grew the economy, and then gradually got rich?
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先开始增加经济，然后慢慢的变富有。
06:51
Whereas China could get healthy much earlier,
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然而中国则先在很早就变的很健康。
06:54
because they applied the knowledge of education, nutrition,
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因为他们应用了教育的知识，营养，
06:58
and then also benefits of penicillin
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他们也同时使用了青霉素
07:01
and vaccines and family planning.
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和疫苗，和家庭计划。
07:03
And Asia could have social development
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这样亚洲是先有的社会发展
07:06
before they got the economic development.
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后有了经济发展。
07:09
So to me, as a public health professor,
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所以对我来说，一个公共健康教授，
07:11
it's not strange that all these countries grow so fast now.
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是不会对这些国家发展的这么快而感到奇怪的。
07:15
Because what you see here, what you see here
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因为你所看到的这里和这里
07:17
is the flat world of Thomas Friedman,
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就是托马斯弗里德曼的平面世界。
07:20
isn't it.
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不是吗？
07:22
It's not really, really flat.
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这不是真的真的很平。
07:24
But the middle income countries --
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但是那些中等收入国家，
07:26
and this is where I suggest to my students,
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这里我就会向我的同学建议
07:28
stop using the concept "developing world."
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停止使用“发展中国家”这个概念。
07:31
Because after all, talking about the developing world
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因为毕竟，谈论发展中国家
07:34
is like having two chapters in the history of the United States.
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就好像是把美国历史分两个部分。
07:38
The last chapter is about present, and president Obama,
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而最后的一个部分是关于这个总统，奥巴马总统。
07:42
and the other is about the past,
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另一个部分则是有关过去。
07:44
where you cover everything from Washington
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当你把从华盛顿时代
07:46
to Eisenhower.
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到艾森豪威尔时代都包括进来。
07:48
Because Washington to Eisenhower,
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因为从华盛顿到艾森豪威尔
07:50
that is what we find in the developing world.
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这就是我们所谓的发展中国家
07:52
We could actually go to Mayflower
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我们其实可以从五月花时代
07:54
to Eisenhower,
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到艾森豪威尔，
07:56
and that would be put together into a developing world,
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那就是整个的发展中世界。
07:59
which is rightly growing its cities in a very amazing way,
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那就是正确的以一个十分奇妙的方法去发展城市。
08:02
which have great entrepreneurs,
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那也有企业家，
08:04
but also have the collapsing countries.
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但是同时我们也有垮掉的国家。
08:07
So, how could we make better sense about this?
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所以我们怎样才能更好的了解这个呢？
08:10
Well, one way of trying is to see whether we could
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恩，其中一个是看看我们能否
08:13
look at income distribution.
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观察收入的分布。
08:15
This is the income distribution of peoples in the world,
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这是世界人口的收入分布，
08:18
from $1. This is where you have food to eat.
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从1美元开始。这是你开始有食物可以吃的地方。
08:21
These people go to bed hungry.
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这些人是饿着睡觉的。
08:23
And this is the number of people.
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这是这些人的数量。
08:25
This is $10, whether you have a public or a private
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这是10美元，不管你有公共的或
08:27
health service system. This is where you can
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私人的健康系统。这是你可以开始
08:29
provide health service for your family and school for your children,
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为你的家庭提供将康服务，为你的儿童提供学校的地方。
08:32
and this is OECD countries:
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这是经合组织国家。
08:34
Green, Latin America, East Europe.
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绿色的是，拉丁美洲，东欧。
08:36
This is East Asia, and the light blue there is South Asia.
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这是东亚。南亚是这个浅蓝色。
08:40
And this is how the world changed.
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而这是世界上这样变化的。
08:43
It changed like this.
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它像这样发生了变化。
08:45
Can you see how it's growing? And how hundreds of millions
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你可以看到是怎样增长的吗？看到那数以万亿的收入
08:48
and billions is coming out of poverty in Asia?
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是这样进入到贫穷的亚洲的？
08:51
And it goes over here?
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然后它移到这里。
08:53
And I come now, into projections,
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这里是我对未来的预测。
08:55
but I have to stop at the door of Lehman Brothers there, you know, because --
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不过我得在莱曼兄弟这里停下来，因为...
08:58
(Laughter)
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（笑）
09:01
that's where the projections are not valid any longer.
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因为这些预测都不准了。
09:03
Probably the world will do this.
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大概世界会这样做。
09:05
and then it will continue forward like this.
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然后它会持续像这样。
09:08
But more or less, this is what will happen,
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但是多多少少会这样。
09:10
and we have a world which cannot be looked upon as divided.
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而且我们有一个不能去分开看的世界。
09:15
We have the high income countries here,
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我们在这有高收入国家，
09:17
with the United States as a leading power;
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美国作为领队。
09:20
we have the emerging economies in the middle,
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我们在中间有新兴经济体，
09:23
which provide a lot of the funding for the bailout;
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那给我们提供了救助的基础。
09:25
and we have the low income countries here.
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然后我们在这里有低收入的国家。
09:28
Yeah, this is a fact that from where the money comes,
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对，我们的救助的钱的确就是从这些地方来的。
09:31
they have been saving, you know, over the last decade.
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在过去十年里，他们一直都在储蓄。
09:33
And here we have the low income countries
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而这里我们有低收入国家，
09:35
where entrepreneurs are.
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那里聚集着大量的企业家。
09:37
And here we have the countries in collapse and war,
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而这里是因战争而垮掉的国家，
09:40
like Afghanistan, Somalia, parts of Congo, Darfur.
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像阿富汗，索马里，部分刚果，达尔富尔。
09:45
We have all this at the same time.
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这些都发生在同一时间。
09:47
That's why it's so problematic to describe what has happened
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那也就是为什么去描述发展中国家发生了什么
09:49
in the developing world.
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是如此的困难。
09:51
Because it's so different, what has happened there.
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因为那里所发生的非常不同。
09:53
And that's why I suggest
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那也是我为什么会建议
09:55
a slightly different approach of what you would call it.
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我们用另一种态度去看待它。
09:58
And you have huge differences within countries also.
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我们在国家间也有巨大的不同。
10:02
I heard that your departments here were by regions.
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我听说你们的部门是按地区分的。
10:05
Here you have Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia,
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这里你有撒哈拉以南非洲，南亚，
10:08
East Asia, Arab states,
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东亚，阿拉伯国家，
10:10
East Europe, Latin America, and OECD.
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东欧，拉丁美洲和经合组织。
10:12
And on this axis, GDP.
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这里是代表GDP的坐标轴。
10:14
And on this, heath, child survival,
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这里是健康和儿童存活率。
10:16
and it doesn't come as a surprise
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而且这一点也不让人吃惊
10:18
that Africa south of Sahara is at the bottom.
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在非洲，沙哈拉南部，在底端。
10:21
But when I split it, when I split it
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但是当我把他们分开，当我把他们分成
10:23
into country bubbles,
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国家的气泡是，
10:25
the size of the bubbles here is the population.
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这里气泡的大小的人口。
10:28
Then you see Sierra Leone and Mauritius, completely different.
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你可以看到塞拉利昂和毛里求斯是完全不一样的。
10:31
There is such a difference within Sub-Saharan Africa.
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这里在撒哈拉以南非洲有很大的不同。
10:33
And I can split the others. Here is the South Asian,
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当我把其他的也分开是。东亚，
10:36
Arab world.
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阿拉伯世界。
10:38
Now all your different departments.
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你现在在不同的地区都有不同。
10:40
East Europe, Latin America, and OECD countries.
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东欧，拉丁美洲，和经合组织国家。
10:43
And here were are. We have a continuum in the world.
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我们在这里。我们有一个连续的世界。
10:46
We cannot put it into two parts.
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我们不能分成连个部分。
10:48
It is Mayflower down here. It is Washington here,
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这是五月花时代。这是华盛顿时代，
10:51
building, building countries.
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建造国家。
10:53
It's Lincoln here, advancing them.
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这是林肯，在升级他们。
10:57
It's Eisenhower bringing modernity into the countries.
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这是艾森豪威尔将现代化带入了国家。
11:00
And then it's United States today, up here.
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然后这是今天的美国，在这里上面。
11:02
And we have countries all this way.
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我们是这样创造了国家。
11:04
Now, this is the important thing
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现在是了解世界怎样
11:07
of understanding how the world has changed.
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变化的关键。
11:11
At this point I decided to make a pause.
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在这里我觉得我需要做一个发言。
11:15
(Laughter)
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（笑）
11:17
And it is my task, on behalf of the rest of the world,
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这就是我的任务，代表这世界其他国家，
11:20
to convey a thanks to the U.S. taxpayers,
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来为美国的纳税人争取一个谢谢，
11:24
for Demographic Health Survey.
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为了人口健康调查所做的贡献。
11:26
Many are not aware of -- no, this is not a joke.
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许多人还没有意识到 -- 不这不是玩笑。
11:29
This is very serious.
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这很严肃。
11:31
It is due to USA's continuous sponsoring
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在这25年里，依靠
11:35
during 25 years of the very good methodology
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美国的资助，我们有一个
11:38
for measuring child mortality
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非常好的测量儿童死亡率的方法，
11:40
that we have a grasp of what's happening in the world.
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这让我们对世界所发生的事情有一个把握。
11:43
(Applause)
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（掌声）
11:50
And it is U.S. government at its best,
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而这个美国政府，正在做最大的努力
11:53
without advocacy, providing facts,
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没有宣传，去提供一些
11:56
that it's useful for the society.
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对社会有用的事实。
11:58
And providing data free of charge
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也在因特网上提供免费的数据
12:01
on the internet, for the world to use. Thank you very much.
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供世界享用。十分感谢你。
12:04
Quite the opposite of the World Bank,
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世界银行则是在十分的对立面，
12:06
who compiled data with government money,
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用政府和税收的钱来编译数据，
12:09
tax money, and then they sell it to add a little profit,
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然后又加入一点利润将他们出售，
12:12
in a very inefficient, Gutenberg way.
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通过十分没有效率的，古滕贝格的方式。
12:15
(Applause)
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（掌声）
12:21
But the people doing that at the World Bank
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但是那些在世界银行所工作的人
12:23
are among the best in the world.
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都是世界上最优秀的。
12:25
And they are highly skilled professionals.
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他们在他们的范围内都是专家。
12:27
It's just that we would like to upgrade our international agencies
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只是我们希望我们能升级我们的国际方案
12:31
to deal with the world in the modern way, as we do.
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去以现代的方法来处理国际问题，就在我们处理的时候。
12:34
And when it comes to free data and transparency,
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当这遇到免费和透明的数据时，
12:37
United States of America is one of the best.
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美国是最好之一。
12:40
And that doesn't come easy from the mouth of a Swedish public health professor.
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而且这不仅仅是从瑞典公共健康教授的口中说出。
12:43
(Laughter)
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（笑）
12:46
And I'm not paid to come here, no.
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我不是为钱来到这的，不是。
12:49
I would like to show you what happens with the data,
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我是想来给你们展示数据上发生了什么,
12:51
what we can show with this data.
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以及我们可以用这些数据来展示什么。
12:53
Look here. This is the world.
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看这里，这是世界。
12:55
With income down there and child mortality.
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收入在这里，然后儿童死亡率。
12:57
And what has happened in the world?
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世界发生了什么？
12:59
Since 1950, during the last 50 years
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自从1950年，到过去50年里
13:02
we have had a fall in child mortality.
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儿童死亡率有一个下降。
13:05
And it is the DHS that makes it possible to know this.
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这是靠国家安全局才知道的。
13:07
And we had an increase in income.
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我们在收入上有一个增加。
13:09
And the blue former developing countries
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这些蓝色的发展中国家
13:11
are mixing up with the former industrialized western world.
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和前工业化国家混合在一起。
13:16
We have a continuum. But we still have, of course,
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然后我们继续。但是我们这里还有，那就是，当然了
13:19
Congo, up there. We still have as poor countries
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刚果在上面这里。我们还有以前的
13:22
as we have had, always, in history.
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一些贫穷国家，在历史上。
13:26
And that's the bottom billion, where we've heard today
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最底层的一亿人口，就如我们当今所听说的一样，
13:29
about a completely new approach to do it.
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急需一个新的解决方案。
13:32
And how fast has this happened?
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这一切发生得有多快呢？
13:35
Well, MDG 4.
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好吧，第4个千年发展目标。
13:37
The United States has not been so eager
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美国政府还不是那么急于
13:39
to use MDG 4.
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使用第4个千年发展目标。
13:42
But you have been the main sponsor that has enabled us to measure it,
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但是你们那些重要赞助商让我们可以去测量它。
13:45
because it's the only child mortality that we can measure.
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因为那是我们唯一可以测量的儿童死亡率。
13:48
And we used to say that it should fall four percent per year.
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我们经常会说每年会下降4个百分点。
13:51
Let's see what Sweden has done.
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让我们来看看瑞典做了什么。
13:53
We used to boast about fast social progress.
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我们曾经吹嘘快速的社会进步。
13:56
That's where we were, 1900.
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我们是在，1990.
13:58
1900, Sweden was there.
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1990年，瑞典在那里。
14:00
Same child mortality as Bangladesh had, 1990,
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和孟加拉国一样的儿童死亡率，1990.
14:02
though they had lower income.
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2000
尽管他们是低收入国家。
14:04
They started very well. They used the aid well.
300
828000
3000
他们开端不错，他们充分利用国外援助。
14:07
They vaccinated the kids. They get better water.
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他们给小孩提供疫苗。他们有更好的水源。
14:09
And they reduced child mortality,
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而且他们降低了儿童死亡率，
14:11
with an amazing 4.7 percent per year. They beat Sweden.
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3000
以每年4.7个百分点。他们打败了瑞典。
14:14
I run Sweden the same 16 year period.
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在接下来的16年里瑞典还是一样。
14:18
Second round, it's Sweden, 1916,
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第二轮，瑞典在1960
14:20
against Egypt, 1990.
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对抗1990的埃及。
14:22
Here we go. Once again the USA is part of the reason here.
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开始。再一次，美国在这里有一部分原因。
14:25
They get safe water, they get food for the poor,
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他们有更安全的水，他们给穷人提供食物。
14:29
and they get malaria eradicated.
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他们根除了疟疾。
14:31
5.5 percent. They are faster than the millennium development goal.
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3000
5.5个百分点。他们比千年发展目标要快。
14:34
And third chance for Sweden, against Brazil here.
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这是瑞典的第三个机会，对抗这里的巴西。
14:37
Brazil here has amazing social improvement
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这里的巴西在过去16年里
14:41
over the last 16 years,
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有着奇妙的社会进步.
14:43
and they go faster than Sweden.
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2000
而且他们比瑞典要快。
14:45
This means that the world is converging.
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那就意味这世界在一体化。
14:47
The middle income countries,
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中等收入国家，
14:49
the emerging economy, they are catching up.
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2000
那些新兴经济体，他们在赶上来。
14:51
They are moving to cities,
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他们向城市发展，
14:53
where they also get better assistance for that.
319
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那里他们可以等到更好的帮助。
14:55
Well the Swedish students protest at this point.
320
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这时瑞典人在抗议。
14:58
They say, "This is not fair,
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他们说到，“”这不公平，
15:00
because these countries had vaccines and antibiotics
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2000
因为这些国家有疫苗和抗生素，
15:02
that were not available for Sweden.
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2000
那时的瑞典还没有。
15:04
We have to do real-time competition."
324
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我们必须做一次同时间的竞赛。”
15:06
Okay. I give you Singapore, the year I was born.
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好，我这里有新加坡，我出生的那一年。
15:09
Singapore had twice the child mortality of Sweden.
326
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新加坡的儿童死亡率是瑞典的两倍。
15:11
It's the most tropical country in the world,
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那是世界上最热带的国家。
15:13
a marshland on the equator.
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一个在赤道沼泽地。
15:15
And here we go. It took a little time for them to get independent.
329
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开始了。他们独立花了一点时间。
15:18
But then they started to grow their economy.
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但是他们开始开展他们的经济。
15:20
And they made the social investment. They got away malaria.
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他们他们开始社会投资。他们摆脱了疟疾。
15:22
They got a magnificent health system
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他们有了一个非常起眼的健康系统
15:24
that beat both the U.S. and Sweden.
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2000
那同时打败了美国和瑞典。
15:26
We never thought it would happen that they would win over Sweden!
334
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3000
我们从来没有想到他们会赢瑞典！
15:29
(Applause)
335
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（掌声）
15:37
All these green countries are achieving millennium development goals.
336
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3000
这些绿色国家都在达成着千年发展计划。
15:40
These yellow are just about to be doing this.
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这些黄色的也正准备着手开始。
15:42
These red are the countries that doesn't do it, and the policy has to be improved.
338
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3000
这些红色的国家则没有做什么，而且他们的政策需要改善。
15:45
Not simplistic extrapolation.
339
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不是简单的推断。
15:48
We have to really find a way
340
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我们真的必须找一个能更好的
15:50
of supporting those countries in a better way.
341
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去支持这些国家的方法。
15:52
We have to respect the middle income countries
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我们必须去尊重这些发展中国家
15:55
on what they are doing.
343
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所做的事情。
15:57
And we have to fact-base the whole way we look at the world.
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我们也必须给我们的世界观有一个客观的基础。
16:00
This is dollar per person. This is HIV in the countries.
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这是人均收入，这是国家的艾滋病数。
16:03
The blue is Africa.
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蓝色的是非洲。
16:05
The size of the bubbles is how many are HIV affected.
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气泡的大小代表着有多少人被艾滋感染。
16:08
You see the tragedy in South Africa there.
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你可以在那看到在南非的悲剧。
16:10
About 20 percent of the adult population are infected.
349
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大概有20%的成年人口被感染了。
16:13
And in spite of them having quite a high income,
350
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尽管他们有一个很高的收入
16:16
they have a huge number of HIV infected.
351
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他们还是有巨大的被艾滋感染数量。
16:19
But you also see that there are African countries down here.
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但你也可以看到有一些非洲国家在底下这里。
16:22
There is no such thing as an HIV epidemic in Africa.
353
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在非洲没有所谓的大规模艾滋流行这样。
16:26
There's a number, five to 10 countries in Africa
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这里有个数字，非洲的5-10国家
16:29
that has the same level as Sweden and United States.
355
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有着和瑞典和美国同样的水平。
16:32
And there are others who are extremely high.
356
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而这里也有那些数目十分高的国家。
16:34
And I will show you that what has happened
357
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而我要来给你们看看
16:37
in one of the best countries, with the most vibrant economy
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非洲最好的国家之一，拥有着最活跃的经济体
16:41
in Africa and a good governance, Botswana.
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和一个非常好的治理的博茨瓦纳，所发生的一切。
16:44
They have a very high level. It's coming down.
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他们有一个十分高的感染水平。正在下降中。
16:46
But now it's not falling,
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但不是那么剧烈。
16:48
because there, with help from PEPFAR,
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因为那里，正在接受紧急计划（PEPFAR）的帮组
16:50
it's working with treatment. And people are not dying.
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正在接受治疗。所以受感染的人就不会死亡。
16:53
And you can see it's not that easy,
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就如你看到的，那并不简单。
16:56
that it is war which caused this.
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那是战争造成这个的。
16:59
Because here, in Congo, there is war.
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因为这里，在刚果，这里有战争。
17:01
And here, in Zambia, there is peace.
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这里，在赞比亚，这里有和平。
17:04
And it's not the economy. Richer country has a little higher.
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但这里没有经济。更富有的国家有更高的水平。
17:07
If I split Tanzania in its income,
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如果我把坦桑尼亚的收入分开。
17:09
the richer 20 percent in Tanzania
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坦桑尼亚更富有的20%人
17:11
has more HIV than the poorest one.
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要比贫穷的人感染更多的艾滋。
17:13
And it's really different within each country.
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而且每个国家都不一样。
17:16
Look at the provinces of Kenya. They are very different.
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看看肯尼亚的一些省份。他们也十分不同。
17:18
And this is the situation you see.
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这就是你所看到的状况。
17:21
It's not deep poverty. It's the special situation,
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这不是深度贫穷。这是特殊的情况。
17:24
probably of concurrent sexual partnership
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大概是在某些国家，或国家的某些部分里
17:27
among part of the heterosexual population
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在南非或东非
17:30
in some countries, or some parts of countries,
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在异性恋人口中
17:32
in south and eastern Africa.
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多重性伴侣所造成的。
17:34
Don't make it Africa. Don't make it a race issue.
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不要说是非洲。不要搞的种族问题上。
17:37
Make it a local issue. And do prevention at each place,
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这是地方问题。并在每个地方实行
17:41
in the way it can be done there.
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当地可以接受的预防措施。
17:43
So to just end up,
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我要这样来结尾。
17:46
there are things of suffering
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这里有我们所不知道的
17:49
in the one billion poorest, which we don't know.
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1亿正在受贫困折磨的人口。
17:52
Those who live beyond the cellphone,
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那些生活在没有手机，
17:54
those who have yet to see a computer,
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或没见过电脑，
17:56
those who have no electricity at home.
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或家里没有电能的人。
17:59
This is the disease, Konzo, I spent 20 years
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这就是叫孔佐（Konzo）的疾病，我花了20年
18:01
elucidating in Africa.
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在非洲来调查。
18:03
It's caused by fast processing of toxic cassava root in famine situation.
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这是因为在饥荒的情况下，快速处理有毒木薯根。
18:08
It's similar to the pellagra epidemic in Mississippi in the '30s.
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这和在30年代密西西比的糙皮病相似。
18:12
It's similar to other nutritional diseases.
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这和其他的营养疾病相似。
18:15
It will never affect a rich person.
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它不会感染富有的人。
18:17
We have seen it here in Mozambique.
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我们在莫桑比克已经看到了。
18:20
This is the epidemic in Mozambique. This is an epidemic in northern Tanzania.
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这正在莫桑比克流行着。这也在南坦桑尼亚流行着。
18:23
You never heard about the disease.
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你从来没有听过这种疾病。
18:25
But it's much more than Ebola
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但是这比伊波拉所
18:27
that has been affected by this disease.
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感染的人还要多。
18:29
Cause crippling throughout the world.
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这造成了世界各地的瘫痪。
18:31
And over the last two years,
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而在过去的两年时间里
18:33
2,000 people has been crippled
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在班登达地区南端
18:35
in the southern tip of Bandundu region.
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已经有2000人已经瘫痪了。
18:37
That used to be the illegal diamond trade,
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这里原来是非法钻石交易地。
18:39
from the UNITA-dominated area in Angola.
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从[不清楚]统治的安哥拉地区
18:42
That has now disappeared,
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在那里现在已经消失了。
18:44
and they are now in great economic problem.
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他们现在则有一个更大的经济问题。
18:46
And one week ago, for the first time,
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就在一个星期前，第一次，
18:49
there were four lines on the Internet.
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这里有4条上线的因特网。
18:52
Don't get confused of the progress of the emerging economies
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不要对新兴经济体的成就
18:55
and the great capacity
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和在中等收入国家人民的
18:58
of people in the middle income countries
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能力而疑惑，
19:00
and in peaceful low income countries.
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而在和平宁静的低收入国家中。
19:02
There is still mystery in one billion.
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这里还有在1亿人中的谜题。
19:04
And we have to have more concepts
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我们必须有着超越发展中国家和
19:06
than just developing countries and developing world.
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发展中世界的概念。
19:09
We need a new mindset. The world is converging,
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我们需要一个新的态度。世界正在融合。
19:12
but -- but -- but not the bottom billion.
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但是，但是，但不是那底层的一亿。
19:15
They are still as poor as they've ever been.
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他们仍然和以前一样贫穷。
19:18
It's not sustainable, and it will not happen around one superpower.
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这并不是可持续的。这也不会围绕着一个超级力量。
19:23
But you will remain
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但是你会继续扮演着
19:25
one of the most important superpowers,
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最重要的的超级力量之一。
19:28
and the most hopeful superpower, for the time to be.
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也是从时间上看来最有希望的超级力量，
19:31
And this institution
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而且在这种局势下
19:33
will have a very crucial role,
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将会有一个非常关键的角色，
19:35
not for United States, but for the world.
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不是美国，而是全世界。
19:37
So you have a very bad name,
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所以你们有一个十分差劲的名字，
19:40
State Department. This is not the State Department.
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国家部门，这不是国家部门。
19:42
It's the World Department.
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这是世界部门。
19:44
And we have a high hope in you. Thank you very much.
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而且我们对你们给予重望。十分感谢你们。
19:46
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com