ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Larry Brilliant - Epidemiologist, philanthropist
TED Prize winner Larry Brilliant has spent his career solving the ills of today -- from overseeing the last smallpox cases to saving millions from blindness -- and building technologies of the future. Now, as Chair of the Skoll Global Threats Fund, he's redefining how we solve the world's biggest problems.

Why you should listen

Larry Brilliant's career path, as unlikely as it is inspirational, has proven worthy of his surname. Trained as a doctor, he was living in a Himalayan monastery in the early 1970s when his guru told him he should help rid the world of smallpox. He joined the World Health Organization's eradication project, directed efforts to eliminate the disease in India and eventually presided over the last case of smallpox on the planet.

Not content with beating a single disease, he founded the nonprofit Seva Foundation, which has cured more than two million people of blindness in 15 countries through innovative surgery, self-sufficient eye care systems and low-cost manufacturing of intraocular lenses. Outside the medical field, he found time to cofound the legendary online community The Well, and run two public tech companies. Time and WIRED magazines call him a "technology visionary."

His 2006 TED Prize wish drew on both sides of his career: He challenged the TED community to help him build a global early-response system to spot new diseases as quickly as they emerge. Called InSTEDD, the system has grown into a network of 100 digital detection partners, which provide tools that help the UN, WHO and CDC track potential pandemics. 

Shortly after he won the TED Prize, Google executives asked Brilliant to run their new philanthropic arm, Google.org. So, between consulting on the WHO's polio eradication project and designing a disease-surveillance network, he harnessed Google's brains and billions in a mix of for-profit and nonprofit ventures tackling the global problems of disease, poverty and climate change. Today, Brilliant is Chair of the Skoll Global Threats Fund, where he heads a team whose mission is to confront global threats imperiling humanity: pandemics, climate change, water security, nuclear proliferation and Middle East conflict.

More profile about the speaker
Larry Brilliant | Speaker | TED.com
Skoll World Forum 2007

Larry Brilliant: The case for optimism

拉里·布利连谈乐观主义

Filmed:
504,358 views

我们早在50年前就已经知道气候变暖正在发生,但是我们几乎没有采取任何的行动。Google.org基金会主任拉里·布利连如是指出。但即使是这样,即使还有其他令人沮丧的趋势,但是,布利连依然对未来报以乐观态度,不妨看看他是怎么说的。这是来自Skoll全球论坛的演讲。www.skollworldforum.org
- Epidemiologist, philanthropist
TED Prize winner Larry Brilliant has spent his career solving the ills of today -- from overseeing the last smallpox cases to saving millions from blindness -- and building technologies of the future. Now, as Chair of the Skoll Global Threats Fund, he's redefining how we solve the world's biggest problems. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:16
I'm going to try to give you a view视图 of the world世界 as I see it,
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我要跟大家分享一下我眼里的世界
00:22
the problems问题 and the opportunities机会 that we face面对,
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我们所面临的问题以及现存的机遇
00:26
and then ask the question if we should be optimistic乐观 or pessimistic悲观.
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接着我会提出我们应当做乐观主义者还是悲观主义者这个问题
00:30
And then I'll let you in on a secret秘密, which哪一个 is why I am an incurable不可救药 optimist乐天派.
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而后我会告诉大家一个秘密,就是我为何会成为一个不可救药的乐观主义者
00:36
Let me start开始 off showing展示 you an Al Gore血块 movie电影 that you may可能 have seen看到 before.
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我们还是从戈尔(美国前副总统)的影片开始,你们有些人看过了
00:42
Now, you've all seen看到 "Inconvenient不方便 Truth真相." This is a little more inconvenient不方便.
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大家都看过《不可忽视的真相》,但是这一个剪辑片段也许让你感到更加不舒服
00:51
(Video视频): Man: ... extremely非常 dangerous危险 questions问题.
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(视频)……这是极端危险的问题。
00:53
Because, with our present当下 knowledge知识, we have no idea理念 what would happen发生.
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因为,按照我们现有的知识,我们根本就无从得知到底会发生什么
00:57
Even now, man may可能 be unwittingly不知不觉 changing改变 the world's世界 climate气候
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即便是今天,人类也许就已经在不经意中改变了地球的气候
01:01
through通过 the waste浪费 products制品 of his civilization文明.
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这都来源于人类文明所创造的废物
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Due应有 to our release发布, through通过 factories工厂 and automobiles汽车 every一切 year,
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每一年,工厂以及汽车尾气所排出的CO2
01:07
of more than six billion十亿 tons of carbon dioxide二氧化碳 --
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总数为60亿吨
01:10
which哪一个 helps帮助 air空气 absorb吸收 heat from the sun太阳 --
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这就使得大气更多的吸收来自太阳的热量
01:13
our atmosphere大气层 seems似乎 to be getting得到 warmer回暖.
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我们的大气层也因而正变得温暖起来
01:16
This is bad?
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这是坏消息吗?
01:18
Well, it's been calculated计算 a few少数 degrees' rise上升 in the earth's地球 temperature温度 would
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据估算,即使是地表温度升高几度
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melt熔化 the polar极性 ice caps帽子.
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都足以使得两极的冰川融化
01:32
And if this happens发生, an inland内陆 sea would fill a good portion一部分 of the Mississippi密西西比州 Valley.
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假如真的发生这样的情况,那么流入内陆的海水将淹没密西西比谷地的大部分地区
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Tourists游客 in glass-bottomed玻璃底 boats would be viewing观看 the drowned淹死的 towers of Miami迈阿密
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那时候,乘坐着玻璃底的游客也将可以看到迈阿密那里浸没的塔楼
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through通过 150 feet of tropical热带 water.
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那时候,迈阿密河的河水深度将达150英尺
01:45
For, in weather天气, we're not only dealing交易 with forces军队 of a far greater更大 variety品种
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我们将遇到比以往任何时候都更多样的气候
01:50
than even the atomic原子 physicist物理学家 encounters遭遇, but with life itself本身.
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此外就是看到更多不同的生物
01:54
Larry拉里 Brilliant辉煌: Should we feel good, or should we feel bad
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看完这个,我们是应当感到高兴,还是应当感到悲伤?
01:58
that 50 years年份 of foreknowledge预知 accomplished完成 so little?
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我们50年前就已经预测到这样的结果,但我们却没做任何干预?
02:04
Well, it depends依靠, really, on what your goals目标 are.
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这个嘛,要看你到底是要达到什么样的目的
02:07
And I think, as my goals目标, I always go back to Gandhi's甘地 talisman护符.
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我认为,至少我自己会回到甘地的talisman那里
02:14
When Mahatma圣雄 Gandhi甘地 was asked,
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那时候,有人问
02:16
"How do you know if the next下一个 act法案 that you are about to do is the right one
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你如何判断你所做的下一步是正确的还是错误的?
02:22
or the wrong错误 one?" he said, "Consider考虑 the face面对 of the poorest最穷,
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甘地的回答是,“你要考虑那些最贫穷
02:28
most vulnerable弱势 human人的 being存在 that you ever chanced偶然 upon,
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最无力的人
02:34
and ask yourself你自己 if the act法案 that you contemplate沉思 will be of benefit效益 to that person.
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然后问自己,你所做的事情是否会让他们受益。
02:40
And if it will be, it's the right thing to do, and if not, rethink反思 it."
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假如是,那就是好事。假如不是,你就要重新思考了。
02:46
For those of us in this room房间, it's not just the poorest最穷 and the most vulnerable弱势 individual个人,
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而对于我们这个房间里的人而言,我们要考虑的不单是最贫穷、最无力的人
02:51
it's the community社区, it's the culture文化, it's the world世界 itself本身.
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我们要考虑整一个社区、文化以及整个世界
02:56
And the trends趋势 for those who are at the periphery周边 of our society社会,
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以及那些生活在我们都市边缘的人们
03:01
who are the poorest最穷 and the most vulnerable弱势,
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他们往往是最贫穷、最无力的
03:04
the trends趋势 give rise上升 to a great case案件 for pessimism悲观主义.
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这一切,也许就会让我们感到无尽的悲观
03:10
But there's also a wonderful精彩 case案件 for optimism乐观.
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但与此同时,我们也看到了一片美好的乐观图景
03:13
Let's review评论 them both. First of all, the megatrends大趋势.
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我们分别谈谈这两方面。首先,从大趋势来看,
03:19
There's two degrees, or three degrees of climate气候 change更改 baked烘烤的 into the system系统.
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现在有2到3摄氏度的升温是必然的
03:26
It will cause原因 rising升起 seas海域. It will cause原因 saline盐水 deposited沉积 into wells and into lands土地.
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这将会导致海平面上升,海水倒灌
03:34
It will disproportionately不成比例 harm危害 the poorest最穷 and the most vulnerable弱势,
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使得穷人以及无力者受到最大的伤害
03:38
as will the increasing增加 rise上升 of population人口.
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还有就是人口数量依然会增长
03:43
Even though虽然 we've我们已经 dodged回避 Paul保罗 Ehrlich's艾氏 population人口 bomb炸弹,
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虽然我们有幸逃过了Paul Ehrlich所预言的“人口爆炸”的危机
03:46
and we will not see 20 billion十亿 people in this decade, as he had forecast预测,
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至少在这个十年里,地球上不会出现200亿人
03:52
we eat as if we were 20 billion十亿.
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但我们所消耗的食物数量与200亿人相当
03:55
And we consume消耗 so much that again, a rise上升 of 6.5 billion十亿 to 9.5 billion十亿
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我们所消费的东西是如此之多,因此,到了我们的孙辈那一代,
04:04
in our grandchildren's孙子的 lifetime一生 will disproportionately不成比例 hurt伤害
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人口将上升到65到95亿,
04:08
the poorest最穷 and the most vulnerable弱势.
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那将使得最穷的人以及最无力的人成为最大的输家
04:12
That's why they migrate迁移 to cities城市.
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这就是他们迁往城市的原因
04:16
That's why in June六月 of this year, we passed通过, as a species种类, 51 percent百分 of us living活的 in cities城市,
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今年6月,有51%的人居住在城市和贫民窟里,
04:22
and busteesbustees, and slums贫民窟, and shantytowns棚户区.
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这是人类这一物种的第一次
04:27
The rural乡村 areas are no longer producing生产 as much food餐饮 as they did.
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农村地区不再如往常那样出产大量的粮食
04:31
The green绿色 revolution革命 never reached到达 Africa非洲.
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绿色革命未曾惠及非洲
04:34
And with desertification荒漠化, sandstorms沙尘暴, the Gobi戈壁 Desert沙漠, the Ogaden欧加登,
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还有就是沙漠化、沙尘暴、戈壁滩、Ogaden
04:41
we are finding发现 increasing增加 difficulty困难 of a hectare公顷
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我们现在很难找到一小块可以耕作,并且
04:45
to produce生产 as many许多 calories卡路里 as it did even 15 years年份 ago.
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可以产生出跟15年前一样多粮食的土地
04:50
So humans人类 are turning车削 more towards animal动物 consumption消费.
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另外,人类也越来越喜欢吃肉
04:55
In Africa非洲 last year, Africans非洲人 ate 600 million百万 wild野生 animals动物,
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单是去年一年,非洲人就吃掉了6亿头野生动物
05:00
and consumed消费 two billion十亿 kilograms公斤 of bush衬套 meat.
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还吃掉了20亿公斤的丛林肉
05:05
And every一切 kilogram公斤 of bush衬套 meat contained hundreds数以百计 of thousands数千 of novel小说 viruses病毒
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每一公斤的丛林肉都包含数以万计的新型病菌
05:11
that have never been charted绘制, the genomic基因组 sequences序列 of which哪一个 we don't know.
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它们以前从未被监测到过,我们也还不知道它们的基因组图
05:17
Their fitness身体素质 for creating创建 pandemics流行病 we are unaware不知道 of,
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也许它们可以成为新型流行病的温床
05:22
but we are ripe成熟 for zoonotic-borne人畜共患传染, emerging新兴 communicable传染性 diseases疾病.
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我们即将要面对的,就是诞生于热带地区、易于传播的各种新型疾病
05:30
Increasingly日益, I would say explosive爆炸物 growth发展 of technology技术.
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还有,随着技术的爆炸式增长
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Most of us are the beneficiaries受益者 of that growth发展. But it has a dark黑暗 side
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我们这里大多数人都是这一增长的受益者。但是,这样的增长也是存在黑暗点的
05:41
-- in bioweapons生物武器, and in technology技术 that puts看跌期权 us on a collision碰撞 course课程
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生物武器以及其他足以助长人们之间的
05:46
to magnify放大 any anger愤怒, hatred or feeling感觉 of marginalization边缘化.
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仇恨、怨怒以及使得部分人被边缘化的形式
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And in fact事实, with increasing增加 globalization全球化 --
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随着全球化进程之加速,
05:58
for which哪一个 there are big winners获奖者 and even bigger losers失败者
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这一进程将伴随着巨大的赢家以及更多的输家
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-- today今天 the world世界 is more diverse多种 and unfair不公平 than perhaps也许 it has ever been in history历史.
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今日之世界比以往任何时候都更加多元也更加不公平
06:10
One percent百分 of us own拥有 40 percent百分 of all the goods产品 and services服务.
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1%的人口占有了40%的资源以及服务
06:17
What will happen发生 if the billion十亿 people today今天 who live生活 on less than one dollar美元 a day
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假如在未来30年内,那些生活在贫困线底下的人口数量
06:24
rise上升 to three billion十亿 in the next下一个 30 years年份?
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从10亿上升到30亿,会发生些什么?
06:29
The one percent百分 will own拥有 even more than 40 percent百分 of all the world's世界 goods产品
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那么1%的人将占有多于40%的资源及服务
06:34
and services服务. Not because they've他们已经 grown长大的 richer更丰富,
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事实上不是他们变得更富裕了
06:38
but because the rest休息 of the world世界 has grown长大的 increasingly日益 poorer.
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而是因为世界别的地区的人正变得越来越贫穷
06:43
Last week, Bill法案 Clinton克林顿 at the TEDTED Awards奖项 said,
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上周,克林顿在TED大奖获奖感言里说
06:45
"This situation情况 is unprecedented史无前例, unequal不等, unfair不公平 and unstable不稳定."
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“这样一种情况是前所未有的、不公平的、不公正的,也不稳定的。”
06:52
So there's lots of reason原因 for pessimism悲观主义.
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因此,持悲观主义的心态似乎是有充分的理由
06:55
Darfur达尔富尔 is, at its origin起源, a resource资源 war战争.
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达尔富尔危机从本质上说就是一场资源争夺战
07:02
Last year, there were 85,000 riots暴动 in China中国,
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去年一年,中国发生了85000起的骚乱
07:07
230 a day, that required需要 police警察 or military军事 intervention介入.
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平均每天230起是需要武力进行干涉的
07:12
Most of them were about resources资源.
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其中大部分都是为了争夺资源
07:15
We are facing面对 an unprecedented史无前例 number, scale规模 of disasters灾害.
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我们正面对前所未有的危机
07:20
Some are weather-related天气有关, human-rights人权 related有关, epidemics流行病.
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有些是关乎天气的,有些是关乎人的
07:25
And the newly emerging新兴 diseases疾病 may可能 make H5N1 and bird flu流感
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而那些新兴的疾病将会使得H5N1以及禽流感相形见绌
07:31
a quaint精巧 forerunner先行者 of things to come. It's a destabilized不稳定 world世界.
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它们不过是更大型病毒之前奏而已。这确实是一个不安宁的世界。
07:39
And unlike不像 destabilized不稳定 world世界 in the past过去, it will be broadcast广播 to you on YouTubeYouTube的,
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与过往的那些不安宁事件不一样的是,如今这个世界所发生的一切都将通过YouTube直播到你的桌面
07:44
you will see it on digital数字 television电视 and on your cell细胞 phones手机.
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你将会在数字电视以及手机上看到实况转播
07:48
What will that lead to?
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这将带来什么后果?
07:50
For some, it will lead to anger愤怒, religious宗教 and sectarian宗派 violence暴力 and terrorism恐怖主义.
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对有些人而言,将意味着愤怒,宗教或非宗教的暴力以及恐怖主义
07:57
For others其他, withdrawal退出, nihilism虚无主义, materialism唯物主义.
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对于其他人而言,将意味着退却、虚无以及拜物主义
08:06
For us, where does it take us, as social社会 activists活动家 and entrepreneurs企业家?
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但对于我们这些社会活动家以及企业家而言,这将意味着什么?
08:11
As we look at these trends趋势, do we become成为 despondent沮丧, or will we become成为 energized通电?
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看到这样的趋势,我们是变得沮丧,还是变得倍受鼓舞?
08:20
Let's look at one case案件, the case案件 of Bangladesh孟加拉国.
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我们来看看孟加拉的例子吧。
08:25
First, even if carbon dioxide二氧化碳 emissions排放 stopped停止 today今天,
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首先,即使人类的CO2排放于今天停止,
08:30
global全球 warming变暖 would continue继续.
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全球变暖的趋势依然会继续
08:33
And even with global全球 warming变暖 -- if you can see these blue蓝色 lines线,
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大家可以看到那些蓝色的线条
08:37
the dotted line线 shows节目 that even if emissions排放 of greenhouse温室 gasses气体 stopped停止 today今天,
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假使温室气体的排放今天就完全中止
08:46
the next下一个 decades几十年 will see rising升起 sea levels水平.
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我们在下一个十年将依然会看到海平面的上升
08:51
A minimum最低限度 of 20 to 30 inches英寸 of increase增加 in sea levels水平 is the best最好 case案件
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最保守的估计是有20到30英寸的上升
08:58
that we can hope希望 for, and it could be 10 times that.
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但事实可能是那个的10倍
09:02
What will that do to Bangladesh孟加拉国? Let's take a look.
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这会给孟加拉带来什么变化?
09:05
So here's这里的 Bangladesh孟加拉国.
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我们不妨看看,这里就是孟加拉,
09:12
70 percent百分 of Bangladesh孟加拉国 is at less than five feet above以上 sea level水平.
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该国70%的国土海拔仅仅为五英尺
09:19
Let's go up and take a look at the Himalayas喜马拉雅山.
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我们来看看喜马拉雅山
09:21
And we'll watch as global全球 warming变暖 makes品牌 them melt熔化. More water comes down,
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我们看看喜马拉雅山因气候变暖而出现冰川融化的情景。雨水越来越多
09:26
the deforested砍伐 areas, here in the Tarai德赖, will be unable无法 to absorb吸收 the effluent流出的,
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积聚在森林消失的地方。在Tarai一地,那里的土地将不能吸收雨水
09:32
because trees树木 are like straws秸秆 that suck吮吸 up the extra额外 seasonal时令的 water.
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因为树木可以像秸秆那样吸收多余的雨水并且贮存起来的
09:38
Now we're looking down south, through通过 the Kali卡利 Gandaki甘达基.
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好,我们再透过 Kali Gandaki 看看南部的地区
09:41
Many许多 of you, I think, have probably大概 trekked长途跋涉 here.
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我想你们当中很多人应当是徒步去到过那里
09:44
And we're going to cruise巡航 down and take a look at Bangladesh孟加拉国
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我们就一直往南走,直到孟加拉
09:49
and see what the impact碰撞 will be of twin双胞胎 increases增加 in water
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我们看看这里会发生什么:北部的冰川融水会不断的增多
09:55
coming未来 from the north, and in the seas海域 rising升起 from the south.
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同时,南部的海水也在不断的上涨
10:01
Looking at the five major重大的 rivers河流 that feed饲料 Bangladesh孟加拉国.
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再看看途径孟加拉的五大河流
10:05
And now let's look from the south, looking up, and let's see this in relief浮雕.
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再从南往北看,看看这个三维的图像
10:11
A minimum最低限度 of 20 to 40 inches英寸 of increase增加 in seas海域,
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我们将发现,这里的海面会有20到40英寸的上升
10:17
coupled耦合 with increasing增加 flows流动 from the Himalayas喜马拉雅山. And take a look at this.
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还有来自喜马拉雅的融水。再看看这里
10:26
As many许多 as 100 million百万 refugees难民 from Bangladesh孟加拉国 could be expected预期 to migrate迁移
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将会有一亿的难民从孟加拉
10:35
into India印度 and into China中国.
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逃难到印度和中国
10:39
This is the difficulty困难 that one country国家 faces面孔.
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这就是其中一个国家即将面临的难题
10:44
But if you look at the globe地球, all around the earth地球, wherever哪里 there is low-lying area,
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假如你放眼全球,看看那些低洼地带
10:52
populated人口稠密 areas near the water,
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看看那些河岸线上的人口密集的地区
10:55
you will find increase增加 in sea level水平 that will challenge挑战 our way of life.
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你会看到,海平面之上涨会改变我们的生活
10:59
Sub-Saharan撒哈拉以南 Africa非洲, and even our own拥有 San Francisco弗朗西斯科 Bay Area.
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不管是在撒哈拉以南的沙漠还是在我们这里的旧金山湾区
11:06
We're all in this together一起.
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我们可谓同济共舟
11:09
This is not something that happens发生 far away to people that we don't know.
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这不是只会影响到一些边远地区的人的事件
11:13
Global全球 warming变暖 is something that happens发生 to all of us, all at once一旦.
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它是会在我们每一个人身上发生的事情
11:19
As are these newly emerging新兴 communicable传染性 diseases疾病,
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同样会发生的就是这些传染病
11:23
names that you hadn't有没有 heard听说 20 years年份 ago: ebola埃博拉病毒, lhasa拉萨 fever发热, monkey pox.
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这些名字你20年前还不会听说过:伊博拉、拉萨热、猴痘
11:28
With the erosion侵蚀 of the green绿色 belt separating分离 animals动物 from humans人类,
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还有,随着人与动物之间的那段绿色保护带在逐渐消失
11:33
we live生活 in each other's其他 viral病毒 environment环境.
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我们就生活在每一个人的病毒环境里
11:36
Do you remember记得, 20 years年份 ago, no one had ever heard听说 of West西 Nile尼罗河 fever发热?
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你能想象吗,20年前,还没有人会听说过西尼罗河热呢!
11:40
And then we watched看着, as one case案件 arrived到达 on the East Coast of the United联合的 States状态
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接着,我们就看到第一例感染个案出现在美国东海岸
11:44
and it marched游行 every一切 year, westwardly向西.
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其后每一年都逐渐西移
11:48
Do you remember记得 no one had heard听说 of ebola埃博拉病毒
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你知道吗?在我们听说中非有数百人因为感染这一病毒而死亡之前
11:51
until直到 we heard听说 of hundreds数以百计 of people dying垂死 in Central中央 Africa非洲 from it?
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没有人听说过这个病毒!
11:55
It's just the beginning开始, unfortunately不幸.
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不幸的是,这一切都仅仅是开始
11:57
There have been 30 novel小说 emerging新兴 communicable传染性 diseases疾病
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过去30年,出现了30种新型传染病毒
12:04
that begin开始 in animals动物 that have jumped跳下 species种类 in the last 30 years年份.
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都是最先出现在动物身上,而后传到人体的
12:11
It's more than enough足够 reason原因 for pessimism悲观主义.
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看来使人悲观的事情还非常多
12:14
But now let's look at the case案件 for optimism乐观. (Laughter笑声)
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但我们还是来看一下乐观的理由吧
12:19
Enough足够 of the bad news新闻. Human人的 beings众生 have always risen上升 to the challenge挑战.
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坏消息?够多了。人类总会勇于面对挑战
12:24
You just need to look at the list名单 of Nobel诺贝尔 laureates获奖者 to remind提醒 ourselves我们自己.
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看看诺贝尔奖获得者的名单就可以理解这点
12:30
We've我们已经 been here before, paralyzed by fear恐惧, paralyzed into inaction无为,
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我们过去不也曾遇到同类困境吗?我们被恐惧吓坏了,不行动
12:36
when some -- probably大概 one of you in this room房间 -- jumped跳下 into the breach突破口
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但有些人——也许就是你们其中一些人——则不顾这么多
12:42
and created创建 an organization组织 like Physicians医生 for Social社会 Responsibility责任,
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就创立了一个像“物理学家社会责任协会”这样的组织
12:47
which哪一个 fought战斗 against反对 the nuclear threat威胁,
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你们站起来对抗核子威胁
12:50
MedicinsMedicins SansSANS Frontieres国界, that renewed更新 our commitment承诺 to disaster灾害 relief浮雕,
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还有医生无国界,它继承了我们紧急救援的传统
12:56
Mohamed穆罕默德 ElBaradei巴拉迪, and the tremendous巨大 hope希望 and optimism乐观 that he
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还有国际原子能机构总干事巴拉迪,他的希望与乐观
13:00
brought all of us, and our own拥有 Muhammad穆罕默德 Yunus尤纳斯.
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还有尤奴斯
13:04
We've我们已经 seen看到 the eradication根除 of smallpox天花.
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我们亲眼看到了天花之消失
13:08
We may可能 see the eradication根除 of polio脊髓灰质炎 this year.
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我们也许今年就会看到小儿麻痹症被消灭
13:11
Last year, there were only 2,000 cases in the world世界.
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去年,全世界就只有2000例
13:15
We may可能 see the eradication根除 of guinea几内亚 worm next下一个 year --
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明年,也许我们就能看到几内亚虫被消灭
13:19
there are only 35,000 cases left in the world世界.
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现在世界上只剩下35000个感染个案了
13:21
20 years年份 ago, there were three and a half million百万.
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20年前,有350万的人感染这一病毒
13:25
And we've我们已经 seen看到 a new disease疾病, not like the 30 novel小说 emerging新兴 communicable传染性 diseases疾病.
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我们也认识了一些新的传染病,它跟过去30年出现的流行传染病不大一样
13:32
This disease疾病 is called sudden突然 wealth财富 syndrome综合征. (Laughter笑声)
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它的名字叫“暴富综合症”(笑)
13:38
It's an amazing惊人 phenomenon现象.
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这是一个相当有趣的现象
13:41
All throughout始终 the technology技术 world世界, we're seeing眼看 young年轻 people bitten被咬 by this
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环顾科技界,我们看到了许多的年轻人
13:45
disease疾病 of sudden突然 wealth财富 syndrome综合征.
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正是被这一综合症所感染
13:49
But they're using运用 their wealth财富 in a way that their forefathers祖先 never did.
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但他们花费金钱的方式是其父辈从未想到的
13:55
They're not waiting等候 until直到 they die to create创建 foundations基金会.
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他们不会等到临死才去创立基金会
13:59
They're actively积极地 guiding主导 their money, their resources资源, their hearts心中, their commitments承诺,
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他们正在将自己的金钱、资源、心血以及热忱
14:04
to make the world世界 a better place地点.
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贡献出来,为的是让世界变得更好
14:06
Certainly当然, nothing can give you more optimism乐观 than that.
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可以说,没有别的东西可以给你更大的乐观情绪了
14:09
More reasons原因 to be optimistic乐观:
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还有更多使你乐观的理由
14:12
in the '60s, and I am a creature生物 of the '60s, there was a movement运动.
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60年代的时候发生过一场运动,我就是那时候长大的
14:17
We all felt that we were part部分 of it, that a better world世界 was right around the corner,
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我们都认为自己是其中的一部分,我们认为一个更加美好的世界就在前面
14:21
that we were watching观看 the birth分娩 of a world世界 free自由 of hatred and violence暴力 and prejudice偏见.
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我们创造的是一个没有仇恨、暴力以及偏见的世界
14:27
Today今天, there's another另一个 kind of movement运动. It's a movement运动 to save保存 the earth地球.
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今天,我们看到了另外一场运动。这场运动的目的在于拯救地球
14:32
It's just beginning开始.
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如今才刚开始
14:34
Five weeks ago, a group of activists活动家 from the business商业 community社区 gathered云集 together一起
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五个星期之前,来自商业界的一班活跃人士聚集到一起
14:41
to stop a Texas德州 utility效用 from building建造 nine coal-fired燃煤 electrical电动 plants植物
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阻止德州电力局修建9座煤炭电力电厂
14:47
that would have contributed贡献 to destroying销毁 the environment环境.
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因为那种电力生产模式会破坏环境
14:52
Six months个月 ago, a group of business商业 activists活动家 gathered云集 together一起 to join加入 with the
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6个月前,又是一班商业界的活跃人士
14:58
Republican共和党人 governor州长 in California加州 to pass通过 ABAB 32,
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支持加州州长通过了AB 32法案
15:02
the most far-reaching深远 legislation立法 in environmental环境的 history历史.
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这是环境运动史上最具深远意义的法案
15:07
Al Gore血块 made制作 presentations简报 in the House and the Senate参议院 as an expert专家 witness见证.
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戈尔以专家身份在参众两院作证
15:16
Can you imagine想像? (Laughter笑声)
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你能想象这一切吗?(笑)
15:19
We're seeing眼看 an entente协约国 cordialecordiale between之间 science科学 and religion宗教 that five years年份 ago
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我们看到了科学与宗教走向联合
15:25
I would not have believed相信, as the evangelical福音 community社区
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因为他们都看到了气候变暖之严峻
15:29
has understood了解 the desperate殊死 situation情况 of global全球 warming变暖.
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这在几年前又是不可思议的
15:35
And now 4,000 churches教堂 have joined加盟 the environmental环境的 movement运动.
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现在有4000座教堂加入了环保运动的行列
15:40
It is something to be greatly非常 optimistic乐观 about.
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这又是值得乐观的
15:44
The European欧洲的 20-20-20 plan计划 is an amazing惊人 breakthrough突破,
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欧盟的20-20-20计划又是一个伟大的突破
15:50
something that should make all of us feel that hope希望 is on the horizon地平线.
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它让我们看到了地平线上希望的曙光
15:55
And on April四月 14th, there will be Step Up Day, where there will be a thousand
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4月14日,将会是行动日
16:00
individual个人 mobilized动员 social社会 activist活动家 movements运动 in the United联合的 States状态 on protest抗议
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美国将有数千活跃人士自发的发起
16:07
against反对 legislation立法 -- pushing推动 for legislation立法 to stop global全球 warming变暖.
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游行,声援关于阻止气候变暖的立法
16:13
And on July七月 7th, around the world世界, I learned学到了 only yesterday昨天,
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我昨天得知,7月7日,在世界各地
16:17
there will be global全球 Live生活 Earth地球 concerts音乐会.
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将会有一场Live Earth音乐会
16:21
And you can feel this optimistic乐观 move移动 to save保存 the earth地球 in the air空气.
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你甚至可以感受到空气中的这股拯救地球气氛
16:27
Now, that doesn't mean that people understand理解 that global全球 warming变暖
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但所有这一切并不意味着他们都理解一点
16:31
hurts伤害 the poorest最穷 and the weakest最弱 the most.
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即气候变暖的最大受害者是穷人以及弱势群体
16:35
That means手段 that people are beginning开始 the first step,
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这一切仅仅表明人们正在迈出第一步
16:37
which哪一个 is acting演戏 out of their own拥有 self-interest自我利益.
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也就是为了维护自身的利益而奋起抗争
16:40
But I am seeing眼看 in the major重大的 funders资助者, in CARE关心, Rockefeller洛克菲勒,
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但我同时也看到了一些大的基金会,如CARE, 洛克菲勒基金会
16:44
Rockefeller洛克菲勒 Brothers兄弟 Fund基金, Hewlett惠普, Mercy怜悯 Corps兵团, you guys, Google谷歌,
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洛克菲勒兄弟基金会、Hewlett, Mercy Corps, 以及Google基金会
16:49
so many许多 other organizations组织, a beginning开始 of understanding理解 that we need
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都开始认识到一点
16:54
to work not just on primary prevention预防 of global全球 warming变暖,
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即我们不能单单为了防止气候变暖而抗争
16:57
but on the secondary次要 prevention预防 of the consequences后果 of global全球 warming变暖
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而且要为气候变暖带来的后果作准备
17:02
on the poorest最穷 and the most vulnerable弱势.
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特别是因为这样的后果对于穷人以及弱势群体影响是最大的
17:07
But for me, I have another另一个 reason原因 to be an incurable不可救药 optimist乐天派.
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但对于我自己而言,我还有别的让我感到乐观的理由
17:12
And you've heard听说 so many许多 inspiring鼓舞人心 stories故事 here, and I heard听说 so many许多 last night
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你们在这里听说了很多有趣的故事,我昨晚就听到很多个
17:18
that I thought I would share分享 a little bit of mine.
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这里我想分享一下我自己 的故事
17:21
My background背景 is not exactly究竟 conventional常规 medical training训练.
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我不是学医出身的
17:25
And I lived生活 in a Himalayan喜马拉雅 monastery修道院, and I studied研究 with a very wise明智的 teacher老师,
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我曾住在喜马拉雅山的寺庙里,从师与一位非常智慧的人
17:30
who kicked me out of the monastery修道院 one day and told me that it was my destiny命运 --
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有一天,他把我带到寺庙外,告诉我,
17:35
it felt like Yoda尤达 -- it is your destiny命运 to go to work for WHO
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我的使命就是为世卫工作
17:41
and to help eradicate根除 smallpox天花,
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帮助他们消灭天花
17:43
at a time when there was no smallpox天花 program程序.
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那时候还没有此类项目
17:47
It should make you optimistic乐观 that smallpox天花 no longer exists存在
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今天,我们确实达到了这一目的,这让我充满乐观的信心
17:51
because it was the worst最差 disease疾病 in history历史.
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因为天花曾经是最恶毒的一种疾病之一
17:55
In the last century世纪 -- that's the one that was seven years年份 ago --
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就在上个世纪--也就是7年前
18:01
half a billion十亿 people died死亡 from smallpox天花:
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有5亿人因为感染天花而死
18:03
more than all the wars战争 in history历史,
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这一数字比历史上所有因为战争死亡的人数还要多
18:06
more than any other infectious传染病 disease疾病 in the history历史 of the world世界.
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也比任何其他感染性疾病带来的死亡个案更高
18:11
In the Summer夏季 of Love, in 1967, two million百万 people, children孩子, died死亡 of smallpox天花.
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1967年夏季,有两百万人因为感染天花而死
18:18
It's not ancient history历史.
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天花由来已久
18:21
When you read the biblical圣经 plague鼠疫 of boils, that was smallpox天花.
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你阅读《圣经》的时候,你读到灼伤的章节,就应当知道那是在讲天花感染
18:26
Pharaoh老王 Ramses拉美西斯 the Fifth第五, whose谁的 picture图片 is here, died死亡 of smallpox天花.
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Ramses法老就是因为感染天花而死的
18:33
To eradicate根除 smallpox天花, we had to gather收集 the largest最大 United联合的 Nations国家 army军队 in history历史.
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为了消灭天花,我们召集了联合国史上最大的一支部队
18:39
We visited参观 every一切 house in India印度, searching搜索 for smallpox天花 -- 120 million百万 houses房屋,
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我们在印度逐家逐户去敲门,询问是否有人感染天花,一共有1.2亿户人家
18:45
once一旦 every一切 month, for nearly几乎 two years年份.
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每个月一次,连续进行了两年
18:49
In a cruel残忍 reversal翻转, after we had almost几乎 conquered征服 smallpox天花 --
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在我们马上要消灭天花的一个关键时刻
18:52
and this is what you must必须 learn学习 as a social社会 entrepreneur企业家, the realm领域 of the final最后 inch英寸.
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这也是你作为一个社会企业家应当学习的,就是到了最后的那一个拐点上该怎么做
18:58
When we had almost几乎 eradicated根除 smallpox天花, it came来了 back again,
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当我们马上就要消灭天花的时候,它又重新猖獗起来
19:02
because the company公司 town of TatanagarTatanagar drew德鲁 laborers劳动者,
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原因在于 Tatanagar 镇吸引了大批的劳工
19:07
who could come there and get employment雇用.
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他们来到那里寻找工作
19:10
And they caught抓住 smallpox天花 in the one remaining其余 place地点 that had smallpox天花,
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不幸的是,他们在一个未曾消灭天花的地方感染了这个病
19:14
and they went home to die.
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而后回到家里等待死亡
19:16
And when they did, they took smallpox天花 to 10 other countries国家
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一路上把病毒带到了其他十个国家
19:20
and reignited重燃 the epidemic疫情.
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使得病毒死灰复燃
19:22
And we had to start开始 all over again.
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我们不得不重新开始
19:26
But, in the end结束, we succeeded成功, and the last case案件 of smallpox天花:
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但我们最后还是胜利了,最后的一例天花:
19:33
this little girl女孩, RahimaRahima Banu巴努 -- Barisal巴里萨尔, in Bangladesh孟加拉国 --
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就是这个女孩,她叫Rahima Banu 她住在孟加拉的巴里萨尔市
19:40
when she coughed咳嗽 or breathed无声, and the last virus病毒 of smallpox天花 left her lungs
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当她通过咳嗽将最后一个天花病毒吐出口中
19:47
and fell下跌 on the dirt污垢 and the sun太阳 killed杀害 that last virus病毒,
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病毒落到地面,被太阳晒死
19:53
thus从而 ended结束 a chain of transmission传输 of history's历史上 greatest最大 horror恐怖.
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这意味着历史上最可怕的病毒感染宣告终结
20:01
How can that not make you optimistic乐观?
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听到这样的故事,你难道会不感到乐观吗?
20:07
A disease疾病 which哪一个 killed杀害 hundreds数以百计 of thousands数千 in India印度, and blinded失明 half of
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这个病毒单在印度就夺去了成千上万人的生命,
20:13
all of those who were made制作 blind in India印度, ended结束.
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还有那个使得许许多多人失明的病毒也消失了
20:18
And most importantly重要的 for us here in this room房间, a bond was created创建.
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对于我们而言,最重要的是我们建立了一种联系
20:25
Doctors医生, health健康 workers工人, from 30 different不同 countries国家,
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来自30多个国家、不同种族、不同宗教信仰、不同肤色、
20:28
of every一切 race种族, every一切 religion宗教, every一切 color颜色, worked工作 together一起,
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的医生、医疗工作者并肩工作
20:33
fought战斗 alongside并肩 each other,
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合力对抗病菌
20:36
fought战斗 against反对 a common共同 enemy敌人, didn't fight斗争 against反对 each other.
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万万没应对共同的敌人,我们不是内斗
20:41
How can that not make you feel optimistic乐观 for the future未来?
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这样的事情难道不会让你对未来充满信心吗?
20:46
Thank you very much.
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感谢大家。
20:48
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
Translated by Tony Yet
Reviewed by Wang Qian

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Larry Brilliant - Epidemiologist, philanthropist
TED Prize winner Larry Brilliant has spent his career solving the ills of today -- from overseeing the last smallpox cases to saving millions from blindness -- and building technologies of the future. Now, as Chair of the Skoll Global Threats Fund, he's redefining how we solve the world's biggest problems.

Why you should listen

Larry Brilliant's career path, as unlikely as it is inspirational, has proven worthy of his surname. Trained as a doctor, he was living in a Himalayan monastery in the early 1970s when his guru told him he should help rid the world of smallpox. He joined the World Health Organization's eradication project, directed efforts to eliminate the disease in India and eventually presided over the last case of smallpox on the planet.

Not content with beating a single disease, he founded the nonprofit Seva Foundation, which has cured more than two million people of blindness in 15 countries through innovative surgery, self-sufficient eye care systems and low-cost manufacturing of intraocular lenses. Outside the medical field, he found time to cofound the legendary online community The Well, and run two public tech companies. Time and WIRED magazines call him a "technology visionary."

His 2006 TED Prize wish drew on both sides of his career: He challenged the TED community to help him build a global early-response system to spot new diseases as quickly as they emerge. Called InSTEDD, the system has grown into a network of 100 digital detection partners, which provide tools that help the UN, WHO and CDC track potential pandemics. 

Shortly after he won the TED Prize, Google executives asked Brilliant to run their new philanthropic arm, Google.org. So, between consulting on the WHO's polio eradication project and designing a disease-surveillance network, he harnessed Google's brains and billions in a mix of for-profit and nonprofit ventures tackling the global problems of disease, poverty and climate change. Today, Brilliant is Chair of the Skoll Global Threats Fund, where he heads a team whose mission is to confront global threats imperiling humanity: pandemics, climate change, water security, nuclear proliferation and Middle East conflict.

More profile about the speaker
Larry Brilliant | Speaker | TED.com