TED2017
Ted Halstead: A climate solution where all sides can win
泰德·哈尔斯特德: 多方受益的气候方案
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为什么我们在气候问题上总是走入死胡同？要如何克服看起来无法逾越的壁垒来获得进展？政策创业家泰德·霍尔斯特德提出了一个基于保守派自由市场和有限政府原则的变革性解决方案。让我们来了解一下这个碳红利计划会如何激发关于气候决策的国际多米诺效应。
Ted Halstead - Policy entrepreneur, climate expert, author
Ted Halstead is breathing new life into US and global climate policy by mobilizing conservative leaders and CEOs around a breakthrough carbon dividends solution. Full bio
Ted Halstead is breathing new life into US and global climate policy by mobilizing conservative leaders and CEOs around a breakthrough carbon dividends solution. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
I have a two-year-old daughter named Naya
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我有一个两岁的女儿，名叫娜娅，
她误认为这个会议的名字
00:15
who is under the mistaken impression
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是在向他的父亲致敬。
00:17
that this conference
is named in honor of her father.
is named in honor of her father.
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（笑声）
00:21
(Laughter)
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我哪里敢反驳我的宝贝女儿呢？
00:22
Who am I to contradict my baby girl?
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00:25
As many of you know, there's something
about becoming a parent
about becoming a parent
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很多人都有体会，为人父母之后，
才会更留心气候变化之类的长期问题。
00:29
that concentrates the mind
on long-term problems like climate change.
on long-term problems like climate change.
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是我女儿的出生启发了我
00:34
It was the birth of my daughter
that inspired me
that inspired me
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去建立这个气候组织，
00:37
to launch this climate organization,
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为了对抗美国在这个问题上的
00:39
in order to counteract the excessive
polarization of this issue
polarization of this issue
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过度分化，
00:43
in the United States,
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并找到一个保守的发展路径。
00:44
and to find a conservative
pathway forward.
pathway forward.
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是的伙计们，
一个共和党气候策略是可能的，
一个共和党气候策略是可能的，
00:50
Yes, folks, a Republican
climate solution is possible,
climate solution is possible,
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更有甚者，
00:54
and you know what?
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可能还是个更好的解决方案。
00:56
It may even be better.
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（笑声）
00:58
(Laughter)
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我来给大家证明一下。
01:00
Let me try to prove that to you.
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01:03
What we really need
is a killer app to climate policy.
is a killer app to climate policy.
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我们真正需要的是一个
针对气候政策的杀手级应用。
针对气候政策的杀手级应用。
在技术领域，一个杀手级应用
是一个变革性的应用，
是一个变革性的应用，
01:07
In the technology world, a killer app
is an application so transformative
is an application so transformative
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可以打造属于自己的市场，
01:12
that it creates its own market,
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比如优步。
01:13
like Uber.
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在气候问题的领域中，
01:15
In the climate world,
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一个杀手级应用是一个
颇具前景的新策略，
颇具前景的新策略，
01:17
a killer app is a new
solution so promising
solution so promising
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可以打破看似坚不可摧的壁垒
01:22
that it can break through
the seemingly insurmountable
the seemingly insurmountable
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01:25
barriers to progress.
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来获得突破。
这包含了心理上的壁垒。
01:27
These include the psychological barrier.
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气候倡议者长久以来一直在
鼓励身边的市民
鼓励身边的市民
01:31
Climate advocates have long
been encouraging their fellow citizens
been encouraging their fellow citizens
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暂时牺牲短期的利益，
01:34
to make short-term sacrifices now
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来造福若干年后
01:36
for benefits that accrue to other people
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其他国家的人们。
01:38
in other countries 30 or 40
years in the future.
years in the future.
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然而效果甚微，
毕竟这有悖基本的人性。
毕竟这有悖基本的人性。
01:41
It just doesn't fly because it runs
contrary to basic human nature.
contrary to basic human nature.
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其次，还有地域政治壁垒。
01:46
Next is the geopolitical barrier.
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在当前的国际贸易规则下，
01:50
Under the current rules of global trade,
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各个国家都有着强烈的意愿去
单方面敦促其他国家
单方面敦促其他国家
01:52
countries have a strong incentive
to free ride off the emissions reductions
to free ride off the emissions reductions
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减少碳排放，
01:56
of other nations,
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而并非强化自己国家的相关政策。
01:57
instead of strengthening
their own programs.
their own programs.
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这长期以来都是
02:00
This has been the curse
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每一个国际气候谈判的
症结所在，包括巴黎协议。
症结所在，包括巴黎协议。
02:01
of every international
climate negotiations, including Paris.
climate negotiations, including Paris.
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02:06
Finally, we have the partisan barrier.
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最后，我们还有党派之间的冲突。
即便是最有决心的几个国家——
02:09
Even the most committed countries --
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德国，英国，加拿大——
02:11
Germany, the United Kingdom, Canada --
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也都离合约要求的
减排规模和速度存在差距。
减排规模和速度存在差距。
02:14
are nowhere near reducing emissions
at the required scale and speed.
at the required scale and speed.
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而且相差甚远。
02:19
Not even close.
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而在美国，各党派在
气候问题上的分歧
气候问题上的分歧
02:21
And the partisan climate divide
is far more acute
is far more acute
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更是有过之而无不及。
02:25
here in the United States.
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02:27
We are fundamentally stuck,
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我们基本是在停滞不前，
因此更需要一个气候政策的杀手应用
02:29
and that is why we need
a killer app of climate policy
a killer app of climate policy
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去打破所有这些壁垒。
02:33
to break through each of these barriers.
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02:36
I'm convinced that the road
to climate progress in the United States
to climate progress in the United States
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我相信气候问题在美国要想取得进展，
需要依靠共和党
02:42
runs through the Republican Party
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以及商业界的支持。
02:45
and the business community.
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因此我发起了气候领导委员会，
02:48
So in launching
the Climate Leadership Council,
the Climate Leadership Council,
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最初就尝试着与共和党的政治大佬
02:51
I started by reaching out to a who's who
of Republican elder statesmen
of Republican elder statesmen
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和商业领袖沟通，
02:54
and business leaders,
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包括詹姆斯·贝克和乔治·舒兹，
02:56
including James Baker and George Schultz,
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美国最具影响力的两位政界大佬；
02:59
the two most respected Republican
elder statesmen in America;
elder statesmen in America;
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马丁·菲尔德斯坦和格雷格·曼昆，
03:03
Martin Feldstein and Greg Mankiw,
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美国最有威望的两位保守派经济学家；
03:05
the two most respected
conservative economists in the country;
conservative economists in the country;
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还有亨利·鲍尔森和罗伯·沃顿，
03:09
and Henry Paulson and Rob Walton,
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最成功，最受人敬仰的
两位商业领袖。
两位商业领袖。
03:11
two of the most successful
and admired business leaders.
and admired business leaders.
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我们共同撰写了
03:14
Together, we co-authored
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《碳红利保守方案》。
03:16
"The Conservative Case
For Carbon Dividends."
For Carbon Dividends."
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这标志着共和党领导人第一次
03:19
This represents the first time
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合作推动了坚实的
03:22
that Republican leaders put forth
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基于市场经济的气候策略。
03:25
a concrete market-based climate solution.
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03:28
(Applause)
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（掌声）
03:29
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
03:31
(Applause)
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（掌声）
特朗普总统搬入白宫两个星期后，
03:33
We presented our plan at the White House
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03:35
two weeks after President Trump moved in.
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我们就在那里对这一计划做了汇报。
03:39
Almost every leading
editorial board in the country
editorial board in the country
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全国几乎每一个主流编辑委员会
都为我们的计划进行了背书，
03:43
has since endorsed our plan,
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而且财富100强中各个领域的企业
03:45
and Fortune 100 companies
from a wide range of industries
from a wide range of industries
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也都成为了我们坚实的后盾。
03:50
are now getting behind it.
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那么现在你们可能很好奇，
03:52
So by now you're probably wondering,
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这到底是个什么计划呢？
03:54
what exactly is this plan?
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事实上，我们的碳红利策略
是基于四个要点。
是基于四个要点。
03:57
Well, our carbon dividends solution
is based on four pillars.
is based on four pillars.
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第一个就是一个逐渐增收的碳税。
04:01
The first is a gradually
rising carbon tax.
rising carbon tax.
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虽然资本主义是个很不错的体系，
04:05
Although capitalism is a wonderful system,
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但就像很多操作系统一样，
也容易出错，
也容易出错，
04:08
like many operating systems,
it's prone to bugs,
it's prone to bugs,
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这种情况通常叫做“市场失调”。
04:11
which, in this case, are called
"market failures."
"market failures."
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目前出现的最大问题就是
市场价格没有将
市场价格没有将
04:14
By far the largest is that
market prices fail to take
market prices fail to take
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社会和环境成本考虑在内。
04:18
social and environmental
costs into account.
costs into account.
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这就意味着每次市场交易
都是基于错误的信息。
都是基于错误的信息。
04:21
That means every market transaction
is based on incorrect information.
is based on incorrect information.
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资本主义这个根本性的缺陷，
超越了任何其他单一因素，
超越了任何其他单一因素，
04:27
This fundamental bug of capitalism,
more than any other single factor,
more than any other single factor,
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要为我们的气候困境负责。
04:31
is to blame for our climate predicament.
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04:34
Now in theory, this should be
an easy problem to fix.
an easy problem to fix.
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理论上，这应该是个
易如反掌的问题。
易如反掌的问题。
经济学家一致认为
04:38
Economists agree
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最好的解决方案是给
化石燃料的碳含量定个价，
化石燃料的碳含量定个价，
04:39
that the best solution is to put a price
on the carbon content of fossil fuels,
on the carbon content of fossil fuels,
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换句话说就是征碳税。
04:44
otherwise known as a carbon tax.
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这样一来就会在每一天的
04:46
This would discourage carbon emissions
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每一项经济交易中
04:50
in every single economic transaction,
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抑制碳排放。
04:52
every day of the year.
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然而，事实已经证明
碳税本身并不受欢迎，
碳税本身并不受欢迎，
04:54
However, a carbon tax by itself
has proven to be unpopular
has proven to be unpopular
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是政策上的死胡同。
04:59
and a political dead end.
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05:01
The answer is to return
all the money raised
all the money raised
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而答案应该是把所有缴纳的费用
以每月固定红利的形式，
05:05
directly to citizens,
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直接回馈给老百姓。
05:07
in the form of equal monthly dividends.
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05:11
This would transform
an unpopular carbon tax
an unpopular carbon tax
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这样一来就可以把不受欢迎的
碳税转换成为
碳税转换成为
受欢迎的，大众化的解决方案，
05:15
into a popular and populist solution,
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同时也能够解决
05:18
and it would also solve
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之前谈到过的潜在的心理壁垒，
05:20
the underlying psychological barrier
that we discussed,
that we discussed,
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仅仅需要给每个人一个
实实在在的，当下的福利。
实实在在的，当下的福利。
05:23
by giving everyone a concrete benefit
in the here and now.
in the here and now.
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05:29
And these benefits would be significant.
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这些福利的影响将是巨大的。
假设碳税率为每吨40美元起，
05:31
Assuming a carbon tax rate
that starts at 40 dollars per ton,
that starts at 40 dollars per ton,
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一个四口之家从征税开始以后就能
05:35
a family of four would receive
2,000 dollars per year
2,000 dollars per year
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每年得到2千美元。
05:38
from the get-go.
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05:40
According to the US Treasury Department,
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根据美国财政部的政策，
05:43
the bottom 70 percent of Americans
would receive more in dividends
would receive more in dividends
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美国底层70%的百姓，相比缴纳
日益增长的能源费用，
日益增长的能源费用，
05:48
than they would pay
in increased energy prices.
in increased energy prices.
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反而将会收到更多的红利。
也就是说2亿多的美国人民
将会因为解决气候问题
将会因为解决气候问题
05:52
That means 223 million Americans
would win economically
would win economically
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而在经济上获益。
05:59
from solving climate change.
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06:01
And that --
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而且——
（掌声）
06:02
(Applause)
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这是革命性的，
06:04
is revolutionary,
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也会从根本上改变气候政治现状。
06:05
and could fundamentally
alter climate politics.
alter climate politics.
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06:10
But there's another
revolutionary element here.
revolutionary element here.
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不过这其中还有另外一个革命性的因素。
红利的数额将会随着
06:13
The amount of the dividend would grow
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碳税率的上涨而增加。
06:17
as the carbon tax rate increases.
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我们对气候的保护工作做得越好，
06:19
The more we protect our climate,
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我们的市民获利就越多。
06:21
the more our citizens benefit.
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06:23
This creates a positive feedback loop,
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这就产生了一个积极的反馈机制，
这很重要，
06:25
which is crucial,
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因为我们能达到长期
减排目标的唯一途径
减排目标的唯一途径
06:27
because the only way we will reach
our long-term emission-reduction goals
our long-term emission-reduction goals
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就是碳税率会逐年增长。
06:31
is if the carbon tax rate
goes up every year.
goes up every year.
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06:34
The third pillar of our program
is eliminating regulations
is eliminating regulations
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第三个关键点是要取消
碳红利计划实施后
06:38
that are no longer needed
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06:40
once a carbon dividends plan is enacted.
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就可以取消各项规章制度。
这是共和党和商业领袖们一个关键的卖点
06:43
This is a key selling point
to Republicans and business leaders.
to Republicans and business leaders.
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06:51
So why should we trade
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那么为什么要用碳税
06:53
climate regulations for a price on carbon?
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来换取代气候保护法规呢？
我来解释一下。
06:55
Well, let me show you.
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我们的计划将会实现相当于奥巴马时代
06:58
Our plan would achieve nearly twice
the emissions reductions
the emissions reductions
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所有气候协议要求的减排量的两倍，
07:02
of all Obama-era climate
regulations combined,
regulations combined,
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同时也是特朗普总统废除所有规定后
07:06
and nearly three times the new baseline
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设定的新的基准线的三倍。
07:10
after President Trump repeals
all of those regulations.
all of those regulations.
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假设以收每吨40美元的碳税为起点，
07:14
That assumes a carbon tax
starting at 40 dollars per ton,
starting at 40 dollars per ton,
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那么每加仑汽油会增加36美分的税。
07:18
which translates into roughly
an extra 36 cents per gallon of gas.
an extra 36 cents per gallon of gas.
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07:24
Our plan by itself
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我们的计划本身
将会达到巴黎气候协议中
07:26
would meet the high end
of America's commitment
of America's commitment
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美国所承诺的上限，
07:30
under the Paris Climate Agreement,
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你们可以看到，
07:32
and as you can see,
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减排会随着时间持续下去。
07:34
the emissions reductions
would continue over time.
would continue over time.
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07:37
This illustrates the power
of a conservative climate solution
of a conservative climate solution
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这就证明了一个基于
自由市场和有限政府的
自由市场和有限政府的
保守派气候策略的效果是多么显著。
07:43
based on free markets
and limited government.
and limited government.
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我们要同时实现制度简化
07:46
We would end up with less regulation
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07:49
and far less pollution at the same time,
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和减少污染，
更要帮助美国的
劳动人民提高生活水平。
劳动人民提高生活水平。
07:52
while helping working-class
Americans get ahead.
Americans get ahead.
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这难道不是我们都可以支持的吗？
07:56
Doesn't that sound like something
we could all support?
we could all support?
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（掌声）
07:59
(Applause)
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08:05
The fourth and final pillar of our program
is a new climate domino effect,
is a new climate domino effect,
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第四点，也是项目的最后一个基本点，
是一个基于边界碳调节的
是一个基于边界碳调节的
新的气候多米诺效应。
08:10
based on border carbon adjustments.
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这听起来有些复杂，
08:13
Now that may sound complicated,
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但它同样也是革命性的，
08:15
but it, too, is revolutionary,
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因为它为我们提供了一个能实现
08:17
because it provides us
a whole new strategy
a whole new strategy
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全球碳价统一的新策略，
08:20
to reach a global price on carbon,
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这也是我们的最终目标。
08:22
which is ultimately what we need.
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给大家看个例子。
08:24
Let me show you an example.
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假设A国采纳了一个碳红利计划，
08:26
Suppose Country A adopts
a carbon dividends plan,
a carbon dividends plan,
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但是B国并没有。
08:29
and Country B does not.
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那么为了公平起见，
08:31
Well, to level the playing field
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同时保护本国工业的竞争力，
08:33
and protect the competitiveness
of its industries,
of its industries,
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A国就需要根据B国商品的碳含量
08:37
Country A would tax imports from Country B
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对其征收进口关税。
08:41
based on their carbon content.
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非常公平。
08:42
Fair enough.
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不过最耐人寻味的地方在于，
08:44
But here's where it gets
really interesting,
really interesting,
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征收的关税将会增加
08:46
because the money raised at the border
would increase the dividends
would increase the dividends
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A国公民的碳红利。
08:50
going to the citizens of Country A.
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那么你们觉得B国
需要多长时间才会认识到
需要多长时间才会认识到
08:52
Well, how long do you think it would take
the public in Country B to realize
the public in Country B to realize
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那些钱应该收入自己的口袋，
08:56
that that money should be going to them,
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需要在自己的国家
也推行碳红利计划？
也推行碳红利计划？
08:58
and to push for a carbon
dividends plan in their own land?
dividends plan in their own land?
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在更多的国家加入之后，
09:01
Add a few more countries,
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我们就会制造出一个
新的气候多米诺效应。
新的气候多米诺效应。
09:03
and we get a new climate domino effect.
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09:07
Once one major country or region
adopts carbon dividends
adopts carbon dividends
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一旦一个主要国家或者地区采纳了
带有边界碳调节的碳红利计划，
09:11
with border carbon adjustments,
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其他国家就不得不跟进，效仿。
09:13
other countries are compelled
to follow suit.
to follow suit.
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09:15
One by one the dominoes fall.
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一个接一个，多米诺就这么倒了。
而且这个多米诺效应
可以始于任何地方。
可以始于任何地方。
09:18
And this domino effect
could start anywhere.
could start anywhere.
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我个人强烈建议，应该从美国开始，
09:21
My preference, strongly,
is the United States,
is the United States,
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但也可以从英国，
09:24
but it could also start
in the United Kingdom,
in the United Kingdom,
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德国，或者其他欧洲国家开始，
09:27
in Germany or another European country,
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甚至中国。
09:29
or even in China.
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09:32
Let's take China as an example.
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拿中国举个例子。
中国承诺要减少温室气体排放，
09:34
China is committed to reducing
greenhouse gas emissions,
greenhouse gas emissions,
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但是中国的领导人更关心的是
09:38
but what its leaders care even more about
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把国家的经济过渡到
消费品引领的经济发展模式。
消费品引领的经济发展模式。
09:40
is transitioning their economy
to consumer-led economic development.
to consumer-led economic development.
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很明显，没有什么能比
给每个中国公民
给每个中国公民
09:45
Well, nothing could do more
to hasten that transition
to hasten that transition
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按月分红更能加速这种过渡了。
09:48
than giving every Chinese citizen
a monthly dividend.
a monthly dividend.
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事实上，这是能够让中国同时
09:52
In fact, this is the only policy solution
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实现环境保护和经济发展双重目标的
09:55
that would enable China to meet
its environmental and economic goals
its environmental and economic goals
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唯一有效的政治策略。
09:59
at the same time.
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这也就是为什么这才是
气候政策的杀手应用，
气候政策的杀手应用，
10:00
That's why this is the killer app
of climate policy,
of climate policy,
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因为它可以让我们克服
10:04
because it would enable us to overcome
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之前提到的每一项壁垒：
10:07
each of the barriers we discussed earlier:
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心理壁垒，党派壁垒，
10:09
the psychological barrier,
the partisan barrier,
the partisan barrier,
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还有我们刚刚提到过的
地缘政治壁垒。
地缘政治壁垒。
10:12
and, as we've just seen,
the geopolitical barrier.
the geopolitical barrier.
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我们需要的只是一个国家来领衔。
10:16
All we need is a country to lead the way.
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一个找到你想要寻找的目标的方法
10:20
And one method of finding
what you're looking for
what you're looking for
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就是发出一个广告。
10:22
is to take out an ad.
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我们一起来看看这一条。
10:24
So let's read this one together.
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诚需：碳红利计划的国家先驱。
10:26
Wanted: country to pioneer
carbon dividends plan.
carbon dividends plan.
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国家成本：零。
10:30
Cost to country: zero.
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起始日期：即日可上岗。
10:32
Starting date: as soon as possible.
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优势：最有效的气候策略，
10:35
Advantages: most effective
climate solution,
climate solution,
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认可度高，平民化，
10:38
popular and populist,
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促进增长，促进商业化，
10:40
pro-growth and pro-business,
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缩减政府机构，帮助劳动阶层。
10:42
shrinks government
and helps the working class.
and helps the working class.
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10:47
Additional compensation: gratitude
of current and future generations,
of current and future generations,
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额外补助：当代和子孙后代的无限感恩，
还包括我的女儿。
10:53
including my daughter.
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10:56
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
（掌声）
10:57
(Applause)
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克里斯·安德森：
我只问一个问题，泰德。
我只问一个问题，泰德。
我其实不太确定
是不是在TED的讲台上见过
一个保守党人士获得如此满堂彩。
一个保守党人士获得如此满堂彩。
这太棒了。
逻辑上听上去真的很有说服力，
不过一些政治领域的人
觉得很难想象国会
要如何通过这项计划。
要如何通过这项计划。
你对这背后的推动力怎么看？
泰德·哈尔斯特德：
我很理解很多人对
我很理解很多人对
特朗普总统在美国的
种种作为持非常悲观的态度。
种种作为持非常悲观的态度。
我觉得还好，原因如下。
这届白宫团队的行动，
对气候问题的提早行动，
对气候问题的提早行动，
只是一个复杂的气候棋局的第一步。
目前为止这只是一个废除性的策略；
而真正面临压力的将会是
一个替代性的项目，
一个替代性的项目，
也就是我们参与的部分。
有三个原因，我来简单陈述一下。
第一，商业界在
气候变化问题上的观点
气候变化问题上的观点
与白宫从本质上是有些不谋而合的。
事实上，我们的项目得到了
一部分财富100强公司的支持。
两个月之内，我们就会宣布
一些真正振奋人心的支持者的名字。
第二，毫无疑问，美国政治当中
比气候变化分歧更大的是
共和党内的普通民众
共和党内的普通民众
和共和党政治领导群体的矛盾。
第三点，类似于棋局中的博弈，
我们所面临的巨大决策是：
相关行政机构需要留在巴黎吗？
相关行政机构需要留在巴黎吗？
我们来分析一下这两种情况。
如果仍然驻守巴黎，
就像很多内部人士极力推行的，
就像很多内部人士极力推行的，
这就引出了一个问题：
有什么（现成的）计划吗？
有什么（现成的）计划吗？
当然我们已经有计划了。
但如果不在巴黎，
国际社会就会源源不断的进行施压。
我们的国务卿将会质问
其他国家对北约的贡献，
其他国家对北约的贡献，
他们就会说，“别提这个，
交出你们对巴黎协议的承诺。
交出你们对巴黎协议的承诺。
你们先兑现诺言，
我们自然会说到做到。”
我们自然会说到做到。”
所以，国际社会，商业领域，
甚至包括共和党民众，
甚至包括共和党民众，
通通都会呼吁一个来自
共和党的替代性计划。
共和党的替代性计划。
同时希望我们的计划能够不负众望。
克里斯：非常感谢你，泰德。
泰德：谢谢，克里斯。
（掌声）
Reviewed by Jenny Yang
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ted Halstead - Policy entrepreneur, climate expert, authorTed Halstead is breathing new life into US and global climate policy by mobilizing conservative leaders and CEOs around a breakthrough carbon dividends solution.
Why you should listen
Ted Halstead is the founder and CEO of the Climate Leadership Council, whose mission is to convene global opinion leaders around the most cost-effective, popular and equitable climate solutions. With offices in Washington and London, the Council will expand to Berlin, Beijing and New Delhi next.
Previously, Halstead founded and led two other successful think tanks. His first, which he launched at 25, introduced new measures of progress and coordinated the Economists’ Statement on Climate Change, signed by 18 Nobel laureate economists. His second, New America, has become one of the most influential think tanks in Washington.
Halstead has published numerous articles in the New York Times, Washington Post, Financial Times, Fortune, The Atlantic, National Review, Bloomberg, Los Angeles Times and Harvard Business Review. He also published two books, including The Radical Center: The Future of American Politics (co-authored with Michael Lind).
From 2008 to 2012, he and his wife sailed around the world on a catamaran, with only their dog as crew. Halstead graduated Phi Beta Kappa from Dartmouth College, and received his Master's degree from Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, where he was a Montgomery Fellow. He was selected as a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum.
Ted Halstead | Speaker | TED.com