TED2019
Rob Reid: How synthetic biology could wipe out humanity -- and how we can stop it
Rob Reid: 合成生物学如何毁灭人类——以及我们如何阻止它
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合成生物学和基因编辑有着改变世界的希望和黑暗的一面。在这个很有远见的谈话中，作者以及企业家 Rob Reid 回顾了这样一个隐患：这个世界里越来越多的人可以获得足以毁灭人类的末日病毒的工具和技术——以及建议我们是时候重视这个威胁了。
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneur
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So, there's about
seven and a half billion of us.
seven and a half billion of us.
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现在地球上大约有75亿人口。
00:16
The World Health Organization tells us
that 300 million of us are depressed,
that 300 million of us are depressed,
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世界卫生组织告诉我们这其中
有3000万人身患抑郁症，
有3000万人身患抑郁症，
00:21
and about 800,000 people
take their lives every year.
take their lives every year.
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每年大约有80万人选择
结束自己的生命。
结束自己的生命。
00:24
A tiny subset of them choose
a profoundly nihilistic route,
a profoundly nihilistic route,
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他们中的一小部分选择了
一种深刻的虚无主义路线，
一种深刻的虚无主义路线，
00:28
which is they die in the act of killing
as many people as possible.
as many people as possible.
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那就是他们选择通过杀死
尽可能多的人的方式死去。
尽可能多的人的方式死去。
00:33
These are some famous recent examples.
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这里有一些最近比较著名的例子。
00:36
And here's a less famous one.
It happened about nine weeks ago.
It happened about nine weeks ago.
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同时也有一个不那么出名的。
这件事发生在大约九个星期前。
这件事发生在大约九个星期前。
00:39
If you don't remember it,
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如果你不记得了，
00:40
it's because there's
a lot of this going on.
a lot of this going on.
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是因为有太多这样的事情在发生。
00:42
Wikipedia just last year
counted 323 mass shootings
counted 323 mass shootings
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维基百科仅去年就统计了
323起大规模枪击事件，
323起大规模枪击事件，
00:47
in my home country, the United States.
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发生在我的故乡，美国。
00:50
Not all of those shooters were suicidal,
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并不是所有的那些
枪击犯都想自杀，
枪击犯都想自杀，
00:52
not all of them were maximizing
their death tolls,
their death tolls,
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并不是所有人都在
最大化死亡人数，
最大化死亡人数，
00:55
but many, many were.
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但是很多、很多人是。
00:56
An important question becomes:
What limits do these people have?
What limits do these people have?
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一个重要的问题变成了：
这些人有上限吗？
这些人有上限吗？
01:00
Take the Vegas shooter.
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以拉斯维加斯枪击案为例。
01:02
He slaughtered 58 people.
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他屠杀了58人。
01:05
Did he stop there because he'd had enough?
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他在那里停下来是
因为他杀够了吗？
因为他杀够了吗？
01:07
No, and we know this because
he shot and injured another 422 people
he shot and injured another 422 people
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不是的，我们知道这一点是
因为他击伤了另外422人，
因为他击伤了另外422人，
01:13
who he surely would have
preferred to kill.
preferred to kill.
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而这些人他肯定更愿意
选择杀死他们。
选择杀死他们。
01:16
We have no reason to think
he would have stopped at 4,200.
he would have stopped at 4,200.
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我们没有理由去认为他可能
会在4200人时停下来。
会在4200人时停下来。
01:19
In fact, with somebody this nihilistic,
he may well have gladly killed us all.
he may well have gladly killed us all.
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事实上，对某些虚无主义的人来说，
他可能会非常乐意把我们都杀了。
他可能会非常乐意把我们都杀了。
01:23
We don't know.
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我们不知道。
01:24
What we do know is this:
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我们知道的是：
01:27
when suicidal murderers really go all in,
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当自杀式凶手真的全部都要杀人时，
01:30
technology is the force multiplier.
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技术则是力量倍增器。
01:33
Here's an example.
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这里有一个例子。
01:35
Several years back, there was a rash
of 10 mass school attacks in China
of 10 mass school attacks in China
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回到几年前，中国发生了十起
不顾后果的校园攻击，
不顾后果的校园攻击，
01:40
carried out with things
like knives and hammers and cleavers,
like knives and hammers and cleavers,
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这些攻击使用的是像刀、
铁锤和劈刀等工具，
铁锤和劈刀等工具，
01:44
because guns are really hard to get there.
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因为在中国枪是很难获取的。
01:46
By macabre coincidence,
this last attack occurred
this last attack occurred
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可怕的巧合是，这最后一次
袭击发生的时间
袭击发生的时间
01:50
just hours before the massacre
in Newtown, Connecticut.
in Newtown, Connecticut.
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正好是康涅狄格州纽镇
大屠杀的几个小时前。
大屠杀的几个小时前。
01:54
But that one American attack killed
roughly the same number of victims
roughly the same number of victims
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但是那一次美国式袭击
受害人数量大约
受害人数量大约
01:58
as the 10 Chinese attacks combined.
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是十次中国袭击的总和。
02:01
So we can fairly say,
knife: terrible; gun: way worse.
knife: terrible; gun: way worse.
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所以我们可以说，
刀：可怕；枪：更糟糕。
刀：可怕；枪：更糟糕。
02:07
And airplane: massively worse,
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飞机：相当糟糕，
02:10
as pilot Andreas Lubitz showed
when he forced 149 people
when he forced 149 people
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飞行员Andreas Lubitz展示过
他强迫149个人
他强迫149个人
02:14
to join him in his suicide,
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加入他的自杀行为，
02:16
smashing a plane into the French Alps.
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将飞机撞上了法国阿尔卑斯山脉。
02:19
And there are other examples of this.
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这有一些其它这样的例子。
02:21
And I'm afraid there are far more deadly
weapons in our near future than airplanes,
weapons in our near future than airplanes,
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我很担心在不久的未来将会有
比飞机更加致命的武器出现，
比飞机更加致命的武器出现，
02:26
ones not made of metal.
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没有一个是金属制造。
02:29
So let's consider the apocalyptic
dynamics that will ensue
dynamics that will ensue
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所以我们可以认为
如果大规模自杀式谋杀
如果大规模自杀式谋杀
02:34
if suicidal mass murder hitches a ride
on a rapidly advancing field
on a rapidly advancing field
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搭上了社会快速发展的便车，
那么世界末日的动力将随之而来，
那么世界末日的动力将随之而来，
02:39
that for the most part holds
boundless promise for society.
boundless promise for society.
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而这个领域在很大程度上
能为社会带来无限的希望。
能为社会带来无限的希望。
02:43
Somewhere out there in the world,
there's a tiny group of people
there's a tiny group of people
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在这个世界上的某个地方，
有那么一小部分人，
有那么一小部分人，
02:46
who would attempt, however ineptly,
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如果他们知道方法，
02:49
to kill us all if they
could just figure out how.
could just figure out how.
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会尝试把我们都杀光。
02:52
The Vegas shooter may or may not
have been one of them,
have been one of them,
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拉斯维加斯的枪手可能是，
也可能不是这其中的一员，
也可能不是这其中的一员，
02:55
but with seven and a half billion of us,
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但是我们有75亿的人口，
02:57
this is a nonzero population.
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这是个非零的总体。
02:59
There's plenty of suicidal
nihilists out there.
nihilists out there.
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这世界上有很多自杀虚无主义者。
我们已经见到过了。
03:02
We've already seen that.
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03:03
There's people with severe mood disorders
that they can't even control.
that they can't even control.
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同样也有很多人有着他们自己
也无法控制的严重的情绪障碍。
也无法控制的严重的情绪障碍。
03:07
There are people who have just suffered
deranging traumas, etc. etc.
deranging traumas, etc. etc.
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也有人经受着精神错乱的创伤，等等。
03:12
As for the corollary group,
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至于推论群体，
03:14
its size was simply zero forever
until the Cold War,
until the Cold War,
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它的规模在冷战之前一直是零。
03:19
when suddenly, the leaders
of two global alliances
of two global alliances
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突然之间，两个全球性联盟的领导人
03:22
attained the ability to blow up the world.
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获得了炸毁世界的能力。
03:26
The number of people
with actual doomsday buttons
with actual doomsday buttons
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从那之后，实际拥有
世界末日按钮的人数
世界末日按钮的人数
03:29
has stayed fairly stable since then.
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一直保持着稳定。
03:32
But I'm afraid it's about to grow,
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但是恐怕这个数字将会增长，
03:34
and not just to three.
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而且并不止三个，
03:36
This is going off the charts.
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已经多到图表快要装不下了。
03:37
I mean, it's going to look
like a tech business plan.
like a tech business plan.
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我的意思是，它看起来
像一个技术企业计划。
像一个技术企业计划。
03:40
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
03:44
And the reason is,
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而原因则是，
03:45
we're in the era
of exponential technologies,
of exponential technologies,
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我们处在技术爆炸的时代，
03:48
which routinely take
eternal impossibilities
eternal impossibilities
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常规来说就是将永恒的不可能
03:53
and make them the actual superpowers
of one or two living geniuses
of one or two living geniuses
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变成一两个现有天才的
实实在在的超能力，
实实在在的超能力，
03:58
and -- this is the big part --
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并且——这是很重要的一部分——
04:00
then diffuse those powers
to more or less everybody.
to more or less everybody.
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然后这些能力多多少少
会扩散到每一个人。
会扩散到每一个人。
04:03
Now, here's a benign example.
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这里有一个很好的例子。
04:05
If you wanted to play checkers
with a computer in 1952,
with a computer in 1952,
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如果你想在1952年用电脑玩跳棋，
04:10
you literally had to be that guy,
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你必须得是那个家伙，
04:13
then commandeer one of the world's
19 copies of that computer,
19 copies of that computer,
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然后霸占世界上19台
电脑的其中一台，
电脑的其中一台，
04:18
then used your Nobel-adjacent brain
to teach it checkers.
to teach it checkers.
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用你媲美诺贝尔奖
的大脑教它下跳棋。
的大脑教它下跳棋。
04:22
That was the bar.
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那就是当时的门槛。
04:24
Today, you just need to know someone
who knows someone who owns a telephone,
who knows someone who owns a telephone,
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今天你只需要认识一个
知道谁有电话的人，
知道谁有电话的人，
04:29
because computing
is an exponential technology.
is an exponential technology.
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因为计算机是指数级增长的技术。
04:33
So is synthetic biology,
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合成生物学也是如此，
04:35
which I'll now refer to as "synbio."
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今天我会称之为"synbio"。
04:38
And in 2011, a couple of researchers
did something every bit as ingenious
did something every bit as ingenious
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2011年，一群研究者
用H5N1病毒做了件
用H5N1病毒做了件
04:43
and unprecedented as the checkers trick
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就像跳棋一样非常巧妙
04:46
with H5N1 flu.
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和史无前例的事情。
04:49
This is a strain that kills
up to 60 percent of the people it infects,
up to 60 percent of the people it infects,
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H5N1这种病毒能杀死60%的感染者，
04:54
more than Ebola.
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致死率超过埃博拉病毒。
04:55
But it is so uncontagious
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但它的传染性很弱，
04:58
that it's killed fewer
than 50 people since 2015.
than 50 people since 2015.
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自2015年以来只造成了
不到50人死亡。
不到50人死亡。
05:02
So these researchers edited H5N1's genome
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于是这些研究者
编辑了H5N1的基因
编辑了H5N1的基因
05:06
and made it every bit as deadly,
but also wildly contagious.
but also wildly contagious.
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并使其更致命，但也具有
更广泛的传染性。
更广泛的传染性。
05:11
The news arm of one of the world's
top two scientific journals
top two scientific journals
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世界两大科学期刊之一
的新闻部门表示，
的新闻部门表示，
05:14
said if this thing got out,
it would likely cause a pandemic
it would likely cause a pandemic
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如果这个东西被泄露出去，
很可能会大面积传染，
很可能会大面积传染，
05:18
with perhaps millions of deaths.
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导致数百万人的死亡。
05:20
And Dr. Paul Keim said
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Paul Keim博士说，
05:22
he could not think of an organism
as scary as this,
as scary as this,
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他想不出还有什么生物体这么可怕，
05:26
which is the last thing
I personally want to hear
I personally want to hear
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这是我个人最不想从
05:29
from the Chairman of the National
Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity.
Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity.
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国家生物安全科学咨询委员会
主席那里听到的。
主席那里听到的。
05:34
And by the way, Dr. Keim also said this --
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顺便说一句，Keim博士还提到：
05:37
["I don't think anthrax
is scary at all compared to this."]
is scary at all compared to this."]
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【“跟这些相比，
我不认为炭疽热可怕。】
我不认为炭疽热可怕。】
他还是这群人中的一员：
05:40
And he's also one of these.
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05:41
[Anthrax expert] (Laughter)
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【炭疽专家】
（笑声）
（笑声）
05:43
Now, the good news about the 2011 biohack
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好消息是2011年的生物黑客
05:46
is that the people who did it
didn't mean us any harm.
didn't mean us any harm.
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对我们并无恶意。
05:49
They're virologists.
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他们是病毒学家。
05:51
They believed they were advancing science.
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他们相信他们在推动科技发展。
05:53
The bad news is that technology
does not freeze in place,
does not freeze in place,
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坏消息是科技不会冻结在一个地方，
05:57
and over the next few decades,
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在接下来的几十年里，
05:59
their feat will become trivially easy.
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他们的壮举将会变得非常简单。
06:02
In fact, it's already way easier,
because as we learned yesterday morning,
because as we learned yesterday morning,
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事实上，现在已经非常容易了，
因为我们昨天早上了解到，
因为我们昨天早上了解到，
06:06
just two years after they did their work,
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仅在他们利用CRISPR系统
06:08
the CRISPR system was harnessed
for genome editing.
for genome editing.
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进行基因组编辑的两年后。
06:11
This was a radical breakthrough
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就有巨大的突破
06:13
that makes gene editing
massively easier --
massively easier --
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使得基因编辑变得非常容易——
06:17
so easy that CRISPR
is now taught in high schools.
is now taught in high schools.
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简单到以至于高中
就开始教授CRISPR了。
就开始教授CRISPR了。
06:20
And this stuff is moving
quicker than computing.
quicker than computing.
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这个东西发展的速度比计算机还快。
06:24
That slow, stodgy white line up there?
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那条缓慢的，笨重的白色线条
06:27
That's Moore's law.
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是摩尔定律。
06:29
That shows us how quickly
computing is getting cheaper.
computing is getting cheaper.
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这展示了计算机是如何变便宜的。
06:33
That steep, crazy-fun green line,
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那条陡峭有趣的绿线，
06:36
that shows us how quickly
genetic sequencing is getting cheaper.
genetic sequencing is getting cheaper.
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则展示了基因测序
如何变得越来越便宜。
如何变得越来越便宜。
06:40
Now, gene editing
and synthesis and sequencing,
and synthesis and sequencing,
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基因编辑，合成和测序，
06:44
they're different disciplines,
but they're tightly related.
but they're tightly related.
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它们是不同的学科，但又紧密关联，
06:46
And they're all moving
in these headlong rates.
in these headlong rates.
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都在快速发展。
06:49
And the keys to the kingdom
are these tiny, tiny data files.
are these tiny, tiny data files.
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通向王国的钥匙是这些
很小很小的数据文件。
很小很小的数据文件。
06:52
That is an excerpt of H5N1's genome.
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这是H5N1基因代码的片段。
06:56
The whole thing can fit
on just a few pages.
on just a few pages.
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只需要几张纸就能装下全部的信息。
06:59
And yeah, don't worry, you can Google this
as soon as you get home.
as soon as you get home.
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不要担心，你回到家后
就可以谷歌搜索它了。
就可以谷歌搜索它了。
它在网上全都可以找到。
07:03
It's all over the internet, right?
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而使它具有传染性的部分字母
07:04
And the part that made it contagious
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07:06
could well fit on a single Post-it note.
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用一张便利贴就能写下。
07:09
And once a genius makes a data file,
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一旦一个天才生成了一个数据文件，
07:13
any idiot can copy it,
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任何白痴都能复制它，
07:15
distribute it worldwide
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在全球分发
07:17
or print it.
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或打印出来。
07:19
And I don't just mean print it on this,
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我说的不是这样的打印，
07:21
but soon enough, on this.
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而是不久之后，像这样。
07:24
So let's imagine a scenario.
137
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1903
让我们想象一个场景。
07:27
Let's say it's 2026,
to pick an arbitrary year,
to pick an arbitrary year,
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3336
比如说在2026年，任意选择一年，
07:30
and a brilliant virologist,
hoping to advance science
hoping to advance science
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一个天才的病毒学家，
抱着推动科学进步的希望
抱着推动科学进步的希望
07:33
and better understand pandemics,
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也为了更好的理解流行病，
07:35
designs a new bug.
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设计了一个新的臭虫。
07:37
It's as contagious as chicken pox,
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它和水痘一样具有传染性，
07:40
it's as deadly as Ebola,
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1920
它和埃博拉一样致命，
07:42
and it incubates for months and months
before causing an outbreak,
before causing an outbreak,
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并且会在病毒爆发前潜伏好几个月，
07:46
so the whole world can be infected
before the first sign of trouble.
before the first sign of trouble.
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所以整个世界在问题征兆
出现之前都被感染了。
出现之前都被感染了。
07:50
Then, her university gets hacked.
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2511
然后，她的大学实验室被黑了。
07:53
And of course,
this is not science fiction.
this is not science fiction.
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当然，这并非科幻故事。
07:55
In fact, just one recent US indictment
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事实上，仅最近一份美国起诉书
07:57
documents the hacking
of over 300 universities.
of over 300 universities.
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就记录了对300多所大学的黑客攻击。
08:01
So that file with the bug's genome on it
spreads to the internet's dark corners.
spreads to the internet's dark corners.
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于是包含那个臭虫基因的文件
被传播到互联网的黑暗角落。
被传播到互联网的黑暗角落。
08:07
And once a file is out there,
it never comes back --
it never comes back --
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并且一旦文件散播出去了，
它就再也回不来了——
它就再也回不来了——
08:11
just ask anybody who runs
a movie studio or a music label.
a movie studio or a music label.
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只需去问问做过
电影和唱片公司的人。
电影和唱片公司的人。
08:16
So now maybe in 2026,
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所以可能是在2026年，
08:18
it would take a true genius
like our virologist
like our virologist
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只有像我们的病毒学家这样的天才
08:21
to make the actual living critter,
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2621
才能制造出活生生的生物，
08:23
but 15 years later,
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但15年之后，
08:25
it may just take a DNA printer
you can find at any high school.
you can find at any high school.
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也许一台你能在任何一所高中
找到的DNA打印机就能做到。
找到的DNA打印机就能做到。
08:29
And if not?
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假如还没有？
08:31
Give it a couple of decades.
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499514
1948
那就再给几十年的时间。
08:34
So, a quick aside:
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顺便提一下：
记得这张幻灯片吗？
08:36
Remember this slide here?
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把你的注意力放在这两个词上。
08:37
Turn your attention to these two words.
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2319
08:40
If somebody tries this
and is only 0.1 percent effective,
and is only 0.1 percent effective,
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如果有人这样做，
并且只有0.1%奏效了，
并且只有0.1%奏效了，
08:47
eight million people die.
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1803
800万人会死亡。
08:48
That's 2,500 9/11s.
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那是911事件的2500倍。
08:52
Civilization would survive,
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2406
文明可能会幸存下来，
08:55
but it would be permanently disfigured.
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但它将永久毁容。
08:58
So this means we need
to be concerned about anybody
to be concerned about anybody
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所以这意味着
我们需要关注任何一个
我们需要关注任何一个
09:01
who has the faintest shot on goal,
169
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2124
能够直达目标的人，
09:03
not just geniuses.
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1867
而不仅仅是天才。
09:06
So today, there's a tiny
handful of geniuses
handful of geniuses
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5047
所以今天，只有一小撮的天才
09:11
who probably could make a doomsday bug
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2142
能够制造末日害虫，
09:13
that's .1-percent effective
and maybe even a little bit more.
and maybe even a little bit more.
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3119
还是0.1%的效率或者更高。
09:17
They tend to be stable and successful
and so not part of this group.
and so not part of this group.
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他们倾向于稳定和成功，
所以不属于这个群体。
所以不属于这个群体。
09:22
So I guess I'm sorta kinda
barely OK-ish with that.
barely OK-ish with that.
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3273
所以我会勉强感觉还好。
09:26
But what about after technology improves
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2872
但在技术进步，
09:29
and diffuses
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1580
和扩散之后，
09:30
and thousands of life science
grad students are enabled?
grad students are enabled?
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3327
并且成千上万的生命科学院
的学生也参与其中了呢？
的学生也参与其中了呢？
09:34
Are every single one of them
going to be perfectly stable?
going to be perfectly stable?
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3548
他们每一个人都情绪稳定吗？
09:37
Or how about a few years after that,
180
565730
1824
或者再过几年后，
每一个压力重重的
预科医学生也武装上了呢？
预科医学生也武装上了呢？
09:39
where every stress-ridden
premed is fully enabled?
premed is fully enabled?
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3709
09:43
At some point in that time frame,
182
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1892
在那个时间段的某个时间点，
09:45
these circles are going to intersect,
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573227
2321
这些圆就会相交，
09:47
because we're now starting to talk about
hundreds of thousands of people
hundreds of thousands of people
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3480
因为现在我们谈论的是全世界
09:51
throughout the world.
185
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1159
成千上万的人。
09:52
And they recently included that guy
who dressed up like the Joker
who dressed up like the Joker
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580259
4058
最近还包括了那个穿得像小丑，
09:56
and shot 12 people to death
at a Batman premiere.
at a Batman premiere.
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3252
在蝙蝠侠首映式上射杀12人的人。
09:59
That was a neuroscience PhD student
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2147
他还是个获得了
国家卫生研究院资助的
国家卫生研究院资助的
10:01
with an NIH grant.
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589788
1912
神经科学博士生。
10:05
OK, plot twist:
190
593478
1526
好了，情节曲折：
10:07
I think we can actually survive this one
if we start focusing on it now.
if we start focusing on it now.
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595028
4895
我认为我们如果现在就开始关注
这个问题，实际上可以挺过这次危机。
这个问题，实际上可以挺过这次危机。
10:11
And I say this, having spent
countless hours
countless hours
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我这样说，是基于花了无数的时间
10:14
interviewing global leaders in synbio
193
602941
2972
采访全球合成生物领域的领袖，
10:17
and also researching their work
for science podcasts I create.
for science podcasts I create.
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605937
4034
同时也为我制作的科学播客
研究他们的工作。
研究他们的工作。
10:21
I have come to fear their work, in case
I haven't gotten that out there yet --
I haven't gotten that out there yet --
195
609995
5138
我开始害怕他们的工作了，
我可能还没有表达出这个意思——
我可能还没有表达出这个意思——
10:27
(Laughter)
196
615157
1548
（笑声）
10:28
but more than that,
to revere its potential.
to revere its potential.
197
616729
3348
但更重要的是，要重视他们的潜力。
10:32
This stuff will cure cancer,
heal our environment
heal our environment
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620101
3854
这些东西将可以治疗癌症，
恢复我们的环境，
恢复我们的环境，
10:35
and stop our cruel treatment
of other creatures.
of other creatures.
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3301
并停止我们对其他生物的残忍对待。
10:39
So how do we get all this without,
you know, annihilating ourselves?
you know, annihilating ourselves?
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那么我们如何在不毁灭自己
的情况下实现？
的情况下实现？
10:44
First thing: like it or not,
synbio is here,
synbio is here,
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632091
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首先，不管喜欢与否，
合成生物已经出现了，
合成生物已经出现了，
10:47
so let's embrace the technology.
202
635946
1894
那么让我们拥抱这个科技。
10:49
If we do a tech ban,
203
637864
1857
如果我们做科技封锁，
10:51
that would only hand
the wheel to bad actors.
the wheel to bad actors.
204
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3157
只能把方向盘送给坏人。
10:54
Unlike nuclear programs,
205
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2356
跟核项目不同，
10:57
biology can be practiced invisibly.
206
645306
2456
生物学可以在不可见的情况下进行。
10:59
Massive Soviet cheating
on bioweapons treaties
on bioweapons treaties
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647786
3357
苏联在生物武器条约上的大规模欺骗，
11:03
made that very clear, as does every
illegal drug lab in the world.
illegal drug lab in the world.
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651167
4129
以及世界上所有的非法药物实验室，
都清楚地表明了这一点。
都清楚地表明了这一点。
11:07
Secondly, enlist the experts.
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655825
2224
第二，赢得专家。
11:10
Let's sign them up and make more of them.
210
658073
2008
让我们把他们召集起来。
11:12
For every million and one
bioengineers we have,
bioengineers we have,
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2618
对于100万零1个生物工程师，
11:14
at least a million of them
are going to be on our side.
are going to be on our side.
212
662747
3685
至少有100万人要站在我们这边。
11:18
I mean, Al Capone
would be on our side in this one.
would be on our side in this one.
213
666858
2821
艾尔·卡彭会站在我们这边。
11:21
The bar to being a good guy
is just so low.
is just so low.
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669703
2810
成为好人的门槛是如此之低。
11:25
And massive numerical
advantages do matter,
advantages do matter,
215
673386
3281
数量上的巨大优势确实很重要，
11:28
even when a single bad guy
can inflict grievous harm,
can inflict grievous harm,
216
676691
2889
即便当一个坏人
也能造成巨大的伤害时，
也能造成巨大的伤害时，
11:31
because among many other things,
217
679604
1575
因为在其他很多事情中，
11:33
they allow us to exploit
the hell out of this:
the hell out of this:
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681203
2516
他们让我们利用这一切：
11:35
we have years and hopefully decades
to prepare and prevent.
to prepare and prevent.
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683743
5922
我们有几年甚至几十年
的时间来准备和预防。
的时间来准备和预防。
11:41
The first person to try something awful --
and there will be somebody --
and there will be somebody --
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689689
3488
有第一个人尝试糟糕的事情——
就会有另一个人——
就会有另一个人——
现在可能还没有出生。
11:45
may not even be born yet.
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1261
11:47
Next, this needs to be an effort
that spans society,
that spans society,
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3525
接下来，这需要跨社会的努力，
11:50
and all of you need to be a part of it,
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698617
2774
你们所有人都应该参与进来，
11:53
because we cannot ask
a tiny group of experts
a tiny group of experts
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701415
4170
因为我们不能要求一小群专家
11:57
to be responsible for both containing
and exploiting synthetic biology,
and exploiting synthetic biology,
225
705609
5138
对合成生物学的开发和利用负责，
12:02
because we already tried that
with the financial system,
with the financial system,
226
710771
3122
毕竟我们已经在金融系统中试过了，
12:05
and our stewards became
massively corrupted
massively corrupted
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713917
3514
我们的管家会变得非常腐败，
12:09
as they figured out
how they could cut corners,
how they could cut corners,
228
717455
2246
一旦他们知道如何偷工减料，
12:11
inflict massive, massive risks
on the rest of us
on the rest of us
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719725
3011
给我们其他人带来巨大的风险，
12:14
and privatize the gains,
230
722760
1917
并获取私利，
12:16
becoming repulsively wealthy
231
724701
2067
他们会在变得极端富有的同时，
12:18
while they stuck us
with the $22 trillion bill.
with the $22 trillion bill.
232
726792
2634
给我们留下22万亿美元的债务。
12:22
And more recently --
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1467
还有最近——
12:24
(Applause)
234
732214
2230
（鼓掌）
12:26
Are you the ones who have gotten
the thank-you letters?
the thank-you letters?
235
734468
2713
你们谁收到了感谢信了吗？
我还在等我的。
12:29
I'm still waiting for mine.
236
737205
1298
我想他们一定太忙而忘记感谢了。
12:30
I just figured they were
too busy to be grateful.
too busy to be grateful.
237
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2756
12:33
And much more recently,
238
741307
1936
最近，
12:36
online privacy started looming
as a huge issue,
as a huge issue,
239
744291
3312
在线隐私开始成为一个大问题，
12:39
and we basically outsourced it.
240
747627
1946
我们基本上是把它外包出去。
12:41
And once again:
241
749597
1347
并且再一次：
12:42
privatized gains, socialized losses.
242
750968
2558
私人得益，社会受损。
12:45
Is anybody else sick of this pattern?
243
753550
2065
有人讨厌这种模式吗？
12:47
(Applause)
244
755639
4623
（鼓掌）
12:52
So we need a more inclusive way
to safeguard our prosperity,
to safeguard our prosperity,
245
760286
5959
所以我们需要更包容的方法
来保护我们的繁荣，
来保护我们的繁荣，
12:58
our privacy
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766269
1157
我们的隐私，
12:59
and soon, our lives.
247
767450
1766
并且很快，我们的生命。
13:01
So how do we do all of this?
248
769240
2738
那么我们该怎么做呢？
13:04
Well, when bodies fight pathogens,
249
772002
2668
当身体对抗病原体时，
13:06
they use ingenious immune systems,
250
774694
2398
它们使用巧妙的免疫系统，
13:09
which are very complex and multilayered.
251
777116
2045
免疫系统相当复杂，层次丰富。
13:11
Why don't we build one of these
for the whole damn ecosystem?
for the whole damn ecosystem?
252
779185
2938
我们为什么不为整个该死的
生态系统构建一个？
生态系统构建一个？
13:14
There's a year of TED Talks that could
be given on this first critical layer.
be given on this first critical layer.
253
782147
3668
仅仅讨论第一个关键层面
就足以举办整整一年的TED演讲。
就足以举办整整一年的TED演讲。
13:17
So these are just a couple
of many great ideas that are out there.
of many great ideas that are out there.
254
785839
3480
所以这些只是一些很好的想法。
13:21
Some R and D muscle
255
789343
1986
一些研发人员
13:23
could take the very primitive
pathogen sensors that we currently have
pathogen sensors that we currently have
256
791353
4935
可以利用我们目前拥有的
非常原始的病原体传感器，
非常原始的病原体传感器，
13:28
and put them on a very steep
price performance curve
price performance curve
257
796312
2823
将它们置于一个非常陡峭
的价格性能曲线上，
的价格性能曲线上，
13:31
that would quickly become ingenious
258
799159
2130
这个曲线很快就会变得巧妙
13:33
and networked
259
801313
1154
而网络化，
13:34
and gradually as widespread
as smoke detectors and even smartphones.
as smoke detectors and even smartphones.
260
802491
4328
并像烟雾探测器，
甚至智能手机那样逐渐普及。
甚至智能手机那样逐渐普及。
13:38
On a very related note:
261
806843
1967
一个非常相关的事项：
13:40
vaccines have all kinds of problems
262
808834
2627
疫苗在生产
13:43
when it comes to manufacturing
and distribution,
and distribution,
263
811485
3021
和销售方面存在各种问题，
13:46
and once they're made, they can't adapt
to new threats or mutations.
to new threats or mutations.
264
814530
4555
一旦生产了，它们就不能适应
新的威胁或突变。
新的威胁或突变。
13:51
We need an agile biomanufacturing base
265
819109
2819
我们需要一个灵活的生物制造基地，
13:53
extending into every single pharmacy
and maybe even our homes.
and maybe even our homes.
266
821952
4090
延伸到每一个药店，
甚至我们的家庭。
甚至我们的家庭。
13:58
Printer technology for vaccines
and medicines is within reach
and medicines is within reach
267
826066
3659
如果我们以此为先，
疫苗和药物打印技术
疫苗和药物打印技术
14:01
if we prioritize it.
268
829749
1983
就会变得触手可及。
14:03
Next, mental health.
269
831756
2070
下一个，心理健康。
14:05
Many people who commit
suicidal mass murder
suicidal mass murder
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833850
2855
很多有自杀式谋杀行为的人
14:08
suffer from crippling,
treatment-resistant depression or PTSD.
treatment-resistant depression or PTSD.
271
836729
4484
怀有严重的难以治疗的抑郁症
或创伤后应激障碍。
或创伤后应激障碍。
14:13
We need noble researchers
like Rick Doblin working on this,
like Rick Doblin working on this,
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841237
4071
我们需要像里克·多布林这样的
高尚研究者来研究这个问题，
高尚研究者来研究这个问题，
14:17
but we also need the selfish jerks
who are way more numerous
who are way more numerous
273
845332
3938
但我们也需要让
更多自私的傻瓜认识到，
更多自私的傻瓜认识到，
14:21
to appreciate the fact that acute
suffering will soon endanger all of us,
suffering will soon endanger all of us,
274
849294
6020
剧烈的痛苦将很快危及我们所有人，
14:27
not just those afflicted.
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不仅只是那些遭受过的人。
14:29
Those jerks will then
join us and Al Capone
join us and Al Capone
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那些傻瓜会加入我们和艾尔·卡彭
14:32
in fighting this condition.
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的战斗来对抗这种状态。
14:35
Third, each and every one of us
can be and should be a white blood cell
can be and should be a white blood cell
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第三，我们每个人能够且
应该成为这个免疫系统的
应该成为这个免疫系统的
14:41
in this immune system.
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白细胞。
14:43
Suicidal mass murderers
can be despicable, yes,
can be despicable, yes,
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自杀式大规模谋杀是可鄙的，
14:46
but they're also terribly
broken and sad people,
broken and sad people,
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但他们也是陷入绝望无法自拔的人，
14:50
and those of us who aren't
need to do what we can
need to do what we can
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他们是那种不需要尽我们所能
14:53
to make sure nobody goes unloved.
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去确保没有人爱的人。
14:56
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
15:01
Next, we need to make
fighting these dangers
fighting these dangers
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下一点，我们需要把对抗这些危险
15:04
core to the discipline
of synthetic biology.
of synthetic biology.
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置于合成生物的中心。
15:07
There are companies out there
that at least claim
that at least claim
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外面有些公司至少声称
15:09
they let their engineers
spend 20 percent of their time
spend 20 percent of their time
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他们让他们的工程师花20%的时间
15:12
doing whatever they want.
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做任何想做的事情。
15:13
What if those who hire bioengineers
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如果这些雇佣生物工程师
15:16
and become them
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并成为工程师的人
15:17
give 20 percent of their time
to building defenses for the common good?
to building defenses for the common good?
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把他们20%的时间用在为
共同利益进行防御上会怎样？
共同利益进行防御上会怎样？
15:23
Not a bad idea, right?
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不是个糟糕的主意吧？
15:24
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
15:26
Then, finally: this won't be any fun.
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最后：这可不好玩。
15:28
But we need to let our minds
go to some very, very dark places,
go to some very, very dark places,
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我们需要把智慧放到
非常，非常黑暗的地方，
非常，非常黑暗的地方，
15:32
and thank you for letting me
take you there this evening.
take you there this evening.
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谢谢大家倾听我的介绍。
15:36
We survived the Cold War
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我们挺过了冷战，
15:38
because every one of us understood
and respected the danger,
and respected the danger,
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因为我们每个人都理解和重视危险，
15:42
in part, because we had spent decades
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部分是因为我们花了几十年时间
15:45
telling ourselves terrifying ghost stories
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为自己讲述可怕的鬼故事，
15:47
with names like "Dr. Strangelove"
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诸如“奇爱博士”
15:49
and "War Games."
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和“战争游戏”。
15:51
This is no time to remain calm.
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现在不是保持冷静的时候。
15:53
This is one of those rare times
when it's incredibly productive
when it's incredibly productive
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这是一个难得的时刻，把自己吓坏
15:56
to freak the hell out --
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是非常有效的——
15:59
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
16:02
to come up with some ghost stories
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去想一些鬼故事，
16:04
and use our fear as fuel
to fight this danger.
to fight this danger.
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并使用我们的恐惧作为能量
来对抗这个危险。
来对抗这个危险。
16:09
Because, all these
terrible scenarios I've painted --
terrible scenarios I've painted --
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因为，我所描述的所有恐怖场景——
16:13
they are not destiny.
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它们不是宿命。
16:16
They're optional.
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它们是可选的。
16:18
The danger is still kind of distant.
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我们离危险仍然有些距离。
16:22
And that means it will only befall us
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这意味着只有我们允许，
16:25
if we allow it to.
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它才会降临到我们身上。
16:27
Let's not.
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别让它发生。
16:29
Thank you very much for listening.
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谢谢大家的倾听。
16:30
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
Translated by psjmz mz
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneurRob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody.
Why you should listen
Rob Reid is an author and a serial entrepreneur. He founded the company that created the Rhapsody music website, and his latest book, Year Zero, was published in July 2013. In it, aliens seek to erase the ruinous fines on their vast collections of pirated American music by destroying the Earth. Parts of it are made up. The audiobook version will be read by John Hodgman.
On the TED Blog, read more on the numbers behind Copyright Math >>
Rob Reid | Speaker | TED.com