TED2019
Rob Reid: How synthetic biology could wipe out humanity -- and how we can stop it
羅勃‧瑞德: 合成生物學如何消滅人類—我們如何阻止它
Filmed:
Readability: 4.4
1,981,233 views
合成生物學和基因編輯具有改變世界的前景和黑暗的一面。這場具有遠見的演講中，身兼作者以及企業家的羅勃‧瑞德檢視這個世界所面臨的危險：世界上愈來愈多的人能夠取得工具和技術，製造出毀滅人類的末日病菌。他也建議是我們嚴肅看待這威脅的時候了。
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneur
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So, there's about
seven and a half billion of us.
seven and a half billion of us.
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世界上大約有七十五億人口
00:16
The World Health Organization tells us
that 300 million of us are depressed,
that 300 million of us are depressed,
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世界衛生組織告訴我們
有三億人有憂鬱症
有三億人有憂鬱症
00:21
and about 800,000 people
take their lives every year.
take their lives every year.
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而且每年有八十萬人自殺
00:24
A tiny subset of them choose
a profoundly nihilistic route,
a profoundly nihilistic route,
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當中一小群人採取
一種極端虛無主義的路線
一種極端虛無主義的路線
00:28
which is they die in the act of killing
as many people as possible.
as many people as possible.
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就是他們死的時候
也要盡可能殺死愈多人愈好
也要盡可能殺死愈多人愈好
00:33
These are some famous recent examples.
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這些是近期知名的案子
00:36
And here's a less famous one.
It happened about nine weeks ago.
It happened about nine weeks ago.
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這個案子則比較少人知道
它發生在九個星期前
它發生在九個星期前
00:39
If you don't remember it,
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如果你不記得它
00:40
it's because there's
a lot of this going on.
a lot of this going on.
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那是因為很多類似的事不斷上演
00:42
Wikipedia just last year
counted 323 mass shootings
counted 323 mass shootings
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根據維基百科，光是去年
就有 323 起大規模槍擊事件
就有 323 起大規模槍擊事件
00:47
in my home country, the United States.
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發生在我的祖國：美國
00:50
Not all of those shooters were suicidal,
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並非所有兇手都有自殺傾向
00:52
not all of them were maximizing
their death tolls,
their death tolls,
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並非所有兇手都想
把死亡人數衝到最高
把死亡人數衝到最高
00:55
but many, many were.
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但許多兇手的確是如此
00:56
An important question becomes:
What limits do these people have?
What limits do these people have?
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關鍵的問題變成是：
這些兇手殺人有沒有限度？
這些兇手殺人有沒有限度？
01:00
Take the Vegas shooter.
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比如，拉斯維加斯槍擊案兇手
01:02
He slaughtered 58 people.
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他屠殺了 58 人
01:05
Did he stop there because he'd had enough?
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他停下來，是因為殺夠了嗎？
01:07
No, and we know this because
he shot and injured another 422 people
he shot and injured another 422 people
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我們知道不是如此
因為他還射傷另外 422 人
因為他還射傷另外 422 人
01:13
who he surely would have
preferred to kill.
preferred to kill.
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他當時肯定想殺掉這些人
01:16
We have no reason to think
he would have stopped at 4,200.
he would have stopped at 4,200.
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我們沒理由認為
他會在殺了 4200 人時停手
他會在殺了 4200 人時停手
01:19
In fact, with somebody this nihilistic,
he may well have gladly killed us all.
he may well have gladly killed us all.
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事實上，這麼虛無主義的人
他可能很樂意殺光我們
他可能很樂意殺光我們
01:23
We don't know.
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我們不知道
01:24
What we do know is this:
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我們確實知道一點：
01:27
when suicidal murderers really go all in,
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有自殺傾向的兇手賭上一切時
01:30
technology is the force multiplier.
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科技加強了殺傷力
01:33
Here's an example.
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這裡有個案例
01:35
Several years back, there was a rash
of 10 mass school attacks in China
of 10 mass school attacks in China
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幾年前，中國爆發了一連串
共十起大規模學校攻擊事件
共十起大規模學校攻擊事件
01:40
carried out with things
like knives and hammers and cleavers,
like knives and hammers and cleavers,
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武器包括刀子、鐵槌、切肉刀
01:44
because guns are really hard to get there.
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因為在中國很難取得槍枝
01:46
By macabre coincidence,
this last attack occurred
this last attack occurred
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恐怖的巧合是
最後一次攻擊的發生時間
最後一次攻擊的發生時間
01:50
just hours before the massacre
in Newtown, Connecticut.
in Newtown, Connecticut.
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只比康乃狄克州紐敦大屠殺早幾小時
01:54
But that one American attack killed
roughly the same number of victims
roughly the same number of victims
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但這場美國攻擊事件的受害人數
大約等同那十起中國攻擊事件
受害人數的加總
受害人數的加總
01:58
as the 10 Chinese attacks combined.
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02:01
So we can fairly say,
knife: terrible; gun: way worse.
knife: terrible; gun: way worse.
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所以，我們可以公平地說
刀子：很可怕；槍枝：更糟糕
刀子：很可怕；槍枝：更糟糕
02:07
And airplane: massively worse,
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飛機：糟糕透頂了
02:10
as pilot Andreas Lubitz showed
when he forced 149 people
when he forced 149 people
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因為飛行員安德烈亞斯·盧比茨
證明了他可以強迫 149 個人
證明了他可以強迫 149 個人
02:14
to join him in his suicide,
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陪他一起自殺
02:16
smashing a plane into the French Alps.
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將一架飛機開去撞法國阿爾卑斯山
02:19
And there are other examples of this.
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還有像這樣的其他案例
02:21
And I'm afraid there are far more deadly
weapons in our near future than airplanes,
weapons in our near future than airplanes,
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我擔心不久的將來
還會出現比飛機更致命的武器
還會出現比飛機更致命的武器
02:26
ones not made of metal.
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不是用金屬做的
02:29
So let's consider the apocalyptic
dynamics that will ensue
dynamics that will ensue
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我們來想一下
如果有自殺傾向的兇手
如果有自殺傾向的兇手
02:34
if suicidal mass murder hitches a ride
on a rapidly advancing field
on a rapidly advancing field
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利用一個快速進步的科技
會造成什麼樣的大災難
會造成什麼樣的大災難
02:39
that for the most part holds
boundless promise for society.
boundless promise for society.
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而且這個科技還為社會帶來無限前景
02:43
Somewhere out there in the world,
there's a tiny group of people
there's a tiny group of people
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在世界的某處有一小群人
02:46
who would attempt, however ineptly,
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不論做法多笨拙，也會嘗試
02:49
to kill us all if they
could just figure out how.
could just figure out how.
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殺光我們所有人
只要他們想出辦法來
只要他們想出辦法來
02:52
The Vegas shooter may or may not
have been one of them,
have been one of them,
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拉斯維加斯槍擊案兇手
可能是這種人，也可能不是
可能是這種人，也可能不是
02:55
but with seven and a half billion of us,
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但世界上有七十五億人
02:57
this is a nonzero population.
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絕對會有這種人存在
02:59
There's plenty of suicidal
nihilists out there.
nihilists out there.
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外面有不少自殺傾向的虛無主義者
03:02
We've already seen that.
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我們已經看過了
03:03
There's people with severe mood disorders
that they can't even control.
that they can't even control.
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有些人具有嚴重的情緒失調
他們自己甚至無法控制
他們自己甚至無法控制
03:07
There are people who have just suffered
deranging traumas, etc. etc.
deranging traumas, etc. etc.
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也有人受到精神上的創傷等等
03:12
As for the corollary group,
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這類的人
03:14
its size was simply zero forever
until the Cold War,
until the Cold War,
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在冷戰時期前，人數始終是零
03:19
when suddenly, the leaders
of two global alliances
of two global alliances
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突然間，世界兩大聯盟的領導人
03:22
attained the ability to blow up the world.
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擁有可以炸掉全世界的能力
03:26
The number of people
with actual doomsday buttons
with actual doomsday buttons
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從那之後，擁有末日按鈕的人數
03:29
has stayed fairly stable since then.
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就一直維持不變
03:32
But I'm afraid it's about to grow,
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但我擔心這個人數要開始成長了
03:34
and not just to three.
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而且不只從兩人變成三人
03:36
This is going off the charts.
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這人數將會爆表
03:37
I mean, it's going to look
like a tech business plan.
like a tech business plan.
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看起來像科技公司的商業計畫一樣
03:40
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
03:44
And the reason is,
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而且理由是
03:45
we're in the era
of exponential technologies,
of exponential technologies,
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我們身處在指數成長的科技時代
03:48
which routinely take
eternal impossibilities
eternal impossibilities
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這個時代會一直挑戰永遠不可能的事
03:53
and make them the actual superpowers
of one or two living geniuses
of one or two living geniuses
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然後把這些事轉變成天才般的超能力
03:58
and -- this is the big part --
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而且，重點是：
04:00
then diffuse those powers
to more or less everybody.
to more or less everybody.
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接著會將那些超能力
普及到每個人身上
普及到每個人身上
04:03
Now, here's a benign example.
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舉一個無害的例子
04:05
If you wanted to play checkers
with a computer in 1952,
with a computer in 1952,
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在 1952 年，如果你想要
用電腦玩西洋跳棋
用電腦玩西洋跳棋
04:10
you literally had to be that guy,
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你就一定得是那個傢伙
04:13
then commandeer one of the world's
19 copies of that computer,
19 copies of that computer,
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然後一定要使用那種電腦
而世界上僅有十九台
而世界上僅有十九台
04:18
then used your Nobel-adjacent brain
to teach it checkers.
to teach it checkers.
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再用你聰明絕頂的大腦來教它下棋
04:22
That was the bar.
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你要面對這些限制
04:24
Today, you just need to know someone
who knows someone who owns a telephone,
who knows someone who owns a telephone,
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現今，你只需要認識某個人
而他又認識有手機的人即可
而他又認識有手機的人即可
04:29
because computing
is an exponential technology.
is an exponential technology.
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因為運算是一種指數成長的科技
04:33
So is synthetic biology,
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合成生物學也是如此
04:35
which I'll now refer to as "synbio."
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接下來我會簡稱為「合生學」
04:38
And in 2011, a couple of researchers
did something every bit as ingenious
did something every bit as ingenious
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2011 年，幾位研究員
做了一件事情
做了一件事情
04:43
and unprecedented as the checkers trick
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和西洋跳棋的把戲一樣巧妙且空前
04:46
with H5N1 flu.
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但應用在 H5N1 流感上
04:49
This is a strain that kills
up to 60 percent of the people it infects,
up to 60 percent of the people it infects,
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被這類病毒感染的人
高達六成會死亡
高達六成會死亡
04:54
more than Ebola.
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致死率比伊波拉還高
04:55
But it is so uncontagious
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但它的傳染性不強
04:58
that it's killed fewer
than 50 people since 2015.
than 50 people since 2015.
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所以從 2015 年之後
死亡人數不到五十個
死亡人數不到五十個
05:02
So these researchers edited H5N1's genome
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這些研究員編輯 H5N1 基因組
05:06
and made it every bit as deadly,
but also wildly contagious.
but also wildly contagious.
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讓它維持原本的致命性
還能廣泛傳染
還能廣泛傳染
05:11
The news arm of one of the world's
top two scientific journals
top two scientific journals
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世界前兩大科學期刊之一的
新聞部門指出
新聞部門指出
05:14
said if this thing got out,
it would likely cause a pandemic
it would likely cause a pandemic
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如果這東西流出去
會造成一場大規模流行病疫情
會造成一場大規模流行病疫情
05:18
with perhaps millions of deaths.
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可能會有數百萬人死亡
05:20
And Dr. Paul Keim said
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保羅‧克伊姆博士說
05:22
he could not think of an organism
as scary as this,
as scary as this,
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他想不出比這更可怕的有機體
05:26
which is the last thing
I personally want to hear
I personally want to hear
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我最不想從國家生物安全科學
顧問委員會主席口中聽到這話
顧問委員會主席口中聽到這話
05:29
from the Chairman of the National
Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity.
Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity.
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05:34
And by the way, Dr. Keim also said this --
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順便一提，克伊姆博士也說過——
【我不認為炭疽比這更可怕】
【我不認為炭疽比這更可怕】
05:37
["I don't think anthrax
is scary at all compared to this."]
is scary at all compared to this."]
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而他也是一位炭疽專家
【我不認為炭疽比這更可怕】
【我不認為炭疽比這更可怕】
05:40
And he's also one of these.
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（笑聲）
05:41
[Anthrax expert] (Laughter)
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05:43
Now, the good news about the 2011 biohack
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在 2011 年有關生物駭客的好消息是
05:46
is that the people who did it
didn't mean us any harm.
didn't mean us any harm.
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做這件事的人並不是為了傷害我們
05:49
They're virologists.
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他們是病毒學家
05:51
They believed they were advancing science.
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他們相信自己將科學向前推進
05:53
The bad news is that technology
does not freeze in place,
does not freeze in place,
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壞消息是，這項科技
並沒有適時停下來
並沒有適時停下來
05:57
and over the next few decades,
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而且接下來幾十年
05:59
their feat will become trivially easy.
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一般人要做到他們的壯舉
會變得輕而易舉
會變得輕而易舉
06:02
In fact, it's already way easier,
because as we learned yesterday morning,
because as we learned yesterday morning,
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事實上，現在就已經容易許多了
因為昨天早上我們得知
因為昨天早上我們得知
06:06
just two years after they did their work,
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在他們研究兩年後
06:08
the CRISPR system was harnessed
for genome editing.
for genome editing.
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CRISPR 系統就被用來
做基因組編輯
做基因組編輯
06:11
This was a radical breakthrough
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這是一項根本性的突破
06:13
that makes gene editing
massively easier --
massively easier --
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讓基因編輯變得簡單許多
06:17
so easy that CRISPR
is now taught in high schools.
is now taught in high schools.
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簡單到現在連高中都在教 CRISPR 了
06:20
And this stuff is moving
quicker than computing.
quicker than computing.
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這東西的進展速度比電腦運算更快
06:24
That slow, stodgy white line up there?
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上面那條緩慢下降的白線是什麼？
06:27
That's Moore's law.
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那是摩爾定律
06:29
That shows us how quickly
computing is getting cheaper.
computing is getting cheaper.
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它代表電腦運算成本下降有多快
06:33
That steep, crazy-fun green line,
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而那條誇張陡峭的綠線
06:36
that shows us how quickly
genetic sequencing is getting cheaper.
genetic sequencing is getting cheaper.
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代表基因定序成本下降有多快
06:40
Now, gene editing
and synthesis and sequencing,
and synthesis and sequencing,
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基因編輯、合成和定序
06:44
they're different disciplines,
but they're tightly related.
but they're tightly related.
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它們是不同的學科，但它們息息相關
06:46
And they're all moving
in these headlong rates.
in these headlong rates.
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它們都以驚人的速度在發展
06:49
And the keys to the kingdom
are these tiny, tiny data files.
are these tiny, tiny data files.
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進入這個王國的鑰匙
就是這些極小的資料檔案
就是這些極小的資料檔案
06:52
That is an excerpt of H5N1's genome.
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這是 H5N1 基因組當中的一段
06:56
The whole thing can fit
on just a few pages.
on just a few pages.
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整個基因組的長度大概會佔幾張頁面
06:59
And yeah, don't worry, you can Google this
as soon as you get home.
as soon as you get home.
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別擔心，你回家就可以趕快搜尋一下
網路上到處都有，對吧？
07:03
It's all over the internet, right?
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讓它變成有傳染性的那一部分
07:04
And the part that made it contagious
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07:06
could well fit on a single Post-it note.
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可以放進一張便利貼
07:09
And once a genius makes a data file,
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只要有位天才做出一個資料檔案
07:13
any idiot can copy it,
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任何白痴都能複製它
07:15
distribute it worldwide
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將它發佈到全世界
07:17
or print it.
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或把它列印出來
07:19
And I don't just mean print it on this,
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我指的不僅是印在這上面
07:21
but soon enough, on this.
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不用多久，也可以印在這上面
07:24
So let's imagine a scenario.
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我們來假想一個情境
07:27
Let's say it's 2026,
to pick an arbitrary year,
to pick an arbitrary year,
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比如 2026 年，隨便挑一年
07:30
and a brilliant virologist,
hoping to advance science
hoping to advance science
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一位優秀的病毒學家希望科學再進步
07:33
and better understand pandemics,
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為了進一步暸解流行病
07:35
designs a new bug.
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因此設計了一種新的病菌
07:37
It's as contagious as chicken pox,
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它的傳染性不輸給水痘
07:40
it's as deadly as Ebola,
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致命程度和伊波拉一樣
07:42
and it incubates for months and months
before causing an outbreak,
before causing an outbreak,
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它醞釀數個月才會爆發
07:46
so the whole world can be infected
before the first sign of trouble.
before the first sign of trouble.
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所以，發現任何危險徵兆前
全世界可能已經被感染了
全世界可能已經被感染了
07:50
Then, her university gets hacked.
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然後，她的大學被駭客入侵
07:53
And of course,
this is not science fiction.
this is not science fiction.
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當然，這不是科幻小說
07:55
In fact, just one recent US indictment
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事實上，美國最近有份起訴書
07:57
documents the hacking
of over 300 universities.
of over 300 universities.
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記載超過三百間大學被駭客侵入
08:01
So that file with the bug's genome on it
spreads to the internet's dark corners.
spreads to the internet's dark corners.
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附帶病菌基因組的檔案
便散播到網路的黑暗角落
便散播到網路的黑暗角落
08:07
And once a file is out there,
it never comes back --
it never comes back --
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一旦檔案流出去，就再也回不來了
08:11
just ask anybody who runs
a movie studio or a music label.
a movie studio or a music label.
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去問電影或唱片公司的人
他們知道這種事
他們知道這種事
08:16
So now maybe in 2026,
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也許在 2026 年
08:18
it would take a true genius
like our virologist
like our virologist
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要像病毒學家這樣的天才
08:21
to make the actual living critter,
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才能製造出活生生的異常生物
08:23
but 15 years later,
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但十五年之後
08:25
it may just take a DNA printer
you can find at any high school.
you can find at any high school.
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可能只要使用任何高中都有的
DNA 列印機就可以辦到
DNA 列印機就可以辦到
08:29
And if not?
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如果不是這樣？
08:31
Give it a couple of decades.
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再過幾十年後仍然會成真
08:34
So, a quick aside:
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讓我打個岔
記得這張投影片嗎？
08:36
Remember this slide here?
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08:37
Turn your attention to these two words.
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把注意力放在這兩個字上面：
【或許】
08:40
If somebody tries this
and is only 0.1 percent effective,
and is only 0.1 percent effective,
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如果有人試圖利用這種方式殺人
儘管成功機率只有 0.1%
儘管成功機率只有 0.1%
08:47
eight million people die.
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就有八百萬人會死亡
08:48
That's 2,500 9/11s.
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等同九一一事件發生兩千五百次
08:52
Civilization would survive,
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文明會存活下來
08:55
but it would be permanently disfigured.
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但它會受到永久性傷害
08:58
So this means we need
to be concerned about anybody
to be concerned about anybody
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這就表示我們得要擔心
任何有一丁點機會
達成這個目標的人
達成這個目標的人
09:01
who has the faintest shot on goal,
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09:03
not just geniuses.
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不能只擔心那些天才
09:06
So today, there's a tiny
handful of geniuses
handful of geniuses
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現今，只有一小群天才
才有可能做出末日病菌
09:11
who probably could make a doomsday bug
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2142
09:13
that's .1-percent effective
and maybe even a little bit more.
and maybe even a little bit more.
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3119
那大概是 0.1% 的成功機率
或稍微高一點
或稍微高一點
09:17
They tend to be stable and successful
and so not part of this group.
and so not part of this group.
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這些通常是穩定且成功的人
所以不屬於這個族群
【想殺光所有人的一群人】
【想殺光所有人的一群人】
09:22
So I guess I'm sorta kinda
barely OK-ish with that.
barely OK-ish with that.
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所以我還勉強可以接受
【想殺光所有人的一群人】
【想殺光所有人的一群人】
09:26
But what about after technology improves
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但是如果科技進步了
09:29
and diffuses
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而且普及了
09:30
and thousands of life science
grad students are enabled?
grad students are enabled?
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3327
數千名生命科學研究生
都能夠做得到呢？
都能夠做得到呢？
09:34
Are every single one of them
going to be perfectly stable?
going to be perfectly stable?
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3548
但是每一個研究生都很穩定嗎？
09:37
Or how about a few years after that,
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1824
如果再過個幾年
09:39
where every stress-ridden
premed is fully enabled?
premed is fully enabled?
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3709
每個壓力大的醫學院預科生
也都能做到呢？
也都能做到呢？
09:43
At some point in that time frame,
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1892
到時候，某個時間點
09:45
these circles are going to intersect,
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2321
這些圓圈將會有交集
09:47
because we're now starting to talk about
hundreds of thousands of people
hundreds of thousands of people
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因為我們在談的是全世界數十萬人
09:51
throughout the world.
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1159
09:52
And they recently included that guy
who dressed up like the Joker
who dressed up like the Joker
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580259
4058
最近，這類人當中
有一位穿著像是小丑
有一位穿著像是小丑
09:56
and shot 12 people to death
at a Batman premiere.
at a Batman premiere.
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3252
在蝙蝠俠首映會上射殺了十二個人
09:59
That was a neuroscience PhD student
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2147
他是一位神經科學博士生
10:01
with an NIH grant.
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1912
拿了國家衛生研究院的獎助金
10:05
OK, plot twist:
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593478
1526
好吧，劇情有所翻轉了：
10:07
I think we can actually survive this one
if we start focusing on it now.
if we start focusing on it now.
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如果我們現在開始重視這個問題
是有機會安全度過
是有機會安全度過
10:11
And I say this, having spent
countless hours
countless hours
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我會這麼說，而且已經花了無數小時
10:14
interviewing global leaders in synbio
193
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2972
訪問全世界的合生學領導人
10:17
and also researching their work
for science podcasts I create.
for science podcasts I create.
194
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4034
為了我所創立的播客節目
我也去研究他們的成果
我也去研究他們的成果
10:21
I have come to fear their work, in case
I haven't gotten that out there yet --
I haven't gotten that out there yet --
195
609995
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我開始對研究成果感到擔憂
即便我還沒完全弄懂
即便我還沒完全弄懂
10:27
(Laughter)
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1548
（笑聲）
10:28
but more than that,
to revere its potential.
to revere its potential.
197
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3348
但不只如此，我更敬畏它的潛力。
10:32
This stuff will cure cancer,
heal our environment
heal our environment
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3854
這些研究可以治療癌症
改善我們的環境
改善我們的環境
10:35
and stop our cruel treatment
of other creatures.
of other creatures.
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3301
阻止我們用殘酷的方式對待其他生物
10:39
So how do we get all this without,
you know, annihilating ourselves?
you know, annihilating ourselves?
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我們要如何做到這些成果
同時不要毀滅我們自己？
同時不要毀滅我們自己？
10:44
First thing: like it or not,
synbio is here,
synbio is here,
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首先：不論你們喜不喜歡
合生學的時代來臨了
合生學的時代來臨了
10:47
so let's embrace the technology.
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所以，我們就擁抱這項科技吧
10:49
If we do a tech ban,
203
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1857
如果我們頒佈科技禁令
10:51
that would only hand
the wheel to bad actors.
the wheel to bad actors.
204
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3157
那只會把掌控權交到壞人手上
10:54
Unlike nuclear programs,
205
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2356
這不像核能計畫
10:57
biology can be practiced invisibly.
206
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2456
生物學可以用看不見的方式進行
10:59
Massive Soviet cheating
on bioweapons treaties
on bioweapons treaties
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3357
蘇聯大量違反生化武器協定
就是很好的證明
就是很好的證明
11:03
made that very clear, as does every
illegal drug lab in the world.
illegal drug lab in the world.
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4129
其他的例子還有
世界各地的非法藥品實驗室
世界各地的非法藥品實驗室
11:07
Secondly, enlist the experts.
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2224
第二，召募專家
11:10
Let's sign them up and make more of them.
210
658073
2008
把他們簽下來，愈多愈好
11:12
For every million and one
bioengineers we have,
bioengineers we have,
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2618
每一百萬零一名生物工程師當中
11:14
at least a million of them
are going to be on our side.
are going to be on our side.
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3685
至少一百萬名是站在我們這邊的
11:18
I mean, Al Capone
would be on our side in this one.
would be on our side in this one.
213
666858
2821
這件事上，連黑幫老大
也會站在我們這邊
也會站在我們這邊
11:21
The bar to being a good guy
is just so low.
is just so low.
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2810
成為好人的標準非常低
11:25
And massive numerical
advantages do matter,
advantages do matter,
215
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3281
在人數上有大量優勢還是很重要
11:28
even when a single bad guy
can inflict grievous harm,
can inflict grievous harm,
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即使是只有一個壞蛋
造成巨大傷害的情況下
造成巨大傷害的情況下
11:31
because among many other things,
217
679604
1575
因為其中一個好處
11:33
they allow us to exploit
the hell out of this:
the hell out of this:
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2516
就是使我們能夠利用這點：
11:35
we have years and hopefully decades
to prepare and prevent.
to prepare and prevent.
219
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5922
我們還有數年，希望有數十年
可以做好準備和預防
可以做好準備和預防
11:41
The first person to try something awful --
and there will be somebody --
and there will be somebody --
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689689
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第一個嘗試去做恐怖事的人
將來會做這件事的人
將來會做這件事的人
11:45
may not even be born yet.
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1261
可能還沒出生
11:47
Next, this needs to be an effort
that spans society,
that spans society,
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3525
接著，整個社會要一同努力
11:50
and all of you need to be a part of it,
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2774
所有人必須要參與
11:53
because we cannot ask
a tiny group of experts
a tiny group of experts
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4170
因為我們不能要求一小群專家
11:57
to be responsible for both containing
and exploiting synthetic biology,
and exploiting synthetic biology,
225
705609
5138
既要負責遏制合成生物學
又要利用合成生物學
又要利用合成生物學
12:02
because we already tried that
with the financial system,
with the financial system,
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710771
3122
因為我們對金融體制試過這個做法
12:05
and our stewards became
massively corrupted
massively corrupted
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3514
我們的財務管理者變得非常腐敗
12:09
as they figured out
how they could cut corners,
how they could cut corners,
228
717455
2246
他們想出走捷徑的方式
12:11
inflict massive, massive risks
on the rest of us
on the rest of us
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3011
讓我們其他人承受非常大的風險
12:14
and privatize the gains,
230
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1917
並將利益放進自己的口袋裡
12:16
becoming repulsively wealthy
231
724701
2067
用令人反感的手段致富
12:18
while they stuck us
with the $22 trillion bill.
with the $22 trillion bill.
232
726792
2634
同時丟給我們
一張 22 兆美元的帳單
一張 22 兆美元的帳單
12:22
And more recently --
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1467
更近期——
12:24
(Applause)
234
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2230
（掌聲）
12:26
Are you the ones who have gotten
the thank-you letters?
the thank-you letters?
235
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2713
你們是有收到感謝信的人嗎？
我還在等我的信
我還在等我的信
12:29
I'm still waiting for mine.
236
737205
1298
我覺得他們是太忙所以沒空感恩
12:30
I just figured they were
too busy to be grateful.
too busy to be grateful.
237
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2756
12:33
And much more recently,
238
741307
1936
再更近期
12:36
online privacy started looming
as a huge issue,
as a huge issue,
239
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3312
網路隱私這個重大議題開始出現
12:39
and we basically outsourced it.
240
747627
1946
而我們基本上就是把它外包
12:41
And once again:
241
749597
1347
而且同樣的是：
12:42
privatized gains, socialized losses.
242
750968
2558
利益放進個人口袋，社會來分攤虧損
12:45
Is anybody else sick of this pattern?
243
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2065
還有人也對這種事感到厭倦嗎？
12:47
(Applause)
244
755639
4623
（掌聲）
12:52
So we need a more inclusive way
to safeguard our prosperity,
to safeguard our prosperity,
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760286
5959
我們需要用更包容的方式
來維護我們的繁榮
12:58
our privacy
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1157
我們的隱私
12:59
and soon, our lives.
247
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1766
不久後，還要維護我們的性命
13:01
So how do we do all of this?
248
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2738
我們要怎麼做到這一切？
13:04
Well, when bodies fight pathogens,
249
772002
2668
當身體要對抗病原體時
13:06
they use ingenious immune systems,
250
774694
2398
身體會使用很精巧的免疫系統
13:09
which are very complex and multilayered.
251
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2045
這種系統非常複雜、多層次
13:11
Why don't we build one of these
for the whole damn ecosystem?
for the whole damn ecosystem?
252
779185
2938
我們何不為整個生態建造這種系統？
13:14
There's a year of TED Talks that could
be given on this first critical layer.
be given on this first critical layer.
253
782147
3668
針對第一項重要的醫學層面
就可以辦一整年的 TED 演說
就可以辦一整年的 TED 演說
13:17
So these are just a couple
of many great ideas that are out there.
of many great ideas that are out there.
254
785839
3480
外面有許多很棒的點子
這些只是其中一部分
這些只是其中一部分
13:21
Some R and D muscle
255
789343
1986
靠著研發能力
13:23
could take the very primitive
pathogen sensors that we currently have
pathogen sensors that we currently have
256
791353
4935
可以改良目前非常原始的
病原體感測器
病原體感測器
13:28
and put them on a very steep
price performance curve
price performance curve
257
796312
2823
將其價格降低，效能大幅提升
13:31
that would quickly become ingenious
258
799159
2130
這很快就會變得精巧
13:33
and networked
259
801313
1154
而且可以連上網路
13:34
and gradually as widespread
as smoke detectors and even smartphones.
as smoke detectors and even smartphones.
260
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4328
漸漸和煙霧偵測器
甚至是智慧手機一樣普遍
甚至是智慧手機一樣普遍
13:38
On a very related note:
261
806843
1967
我做一個相關的補充：
13:40
vaccines have all kinds of problems
262
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2627
疫苗在製造和配送上
13:43
when it comes to manufacturing
and distribution,
and distribution,
263
811485
3021
有各式各樣的問題
13:46
and once they're made, they can't adapt
to new threats or mutations.
to new threats or mutations.
264
814530
4555
而且一旦疫苗被做出來了
就無法適應新的威脅或突變
就無法適應新的威脅或突變
13:51
We need an agile biomanufacturing base
265
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2819
我們需要有彈性的生化製造基地
13:53
extending into every single pharmacy
and maybe even our homes.
and maybe even our homes.
266
821952
4090
能延伸到每一間藥房
或甚至我們的家中
或甚至我們的家中
13:58
Printer technology for vaccines
and medicines is within reach
and medicines is within reach
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3659
疫苗及藥物的列印技術
已經快要實現了
已經快要實現了
14:01
if we prioritize it.
268
829749
1983
如果我們把它列為第一優先順序
14:03
Next, mental health.
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接著，心理健康層面
14:05
Many people who commit
suicidal mass murder
suicidal mass murder
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許多犯下大規模自殺式攻擊的人
14:08
suffer from crippling,
treatment-resistant depression or PTSD.
treatment-resistant depression or PTSD.
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都有肢體傷殘、難治型憂鬱症
或是創傷後壓力症候群
或是創傷後壓力症候群
14:13
We need noble researchers
like Rick Doblin working on this,
like Rick Doblin working on this,
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在這個議題上，我們需要
優秀的研究者如瑞克‧杜布林
優秀的研究者如瑞克‧杜布林
14:17
but we also need the selfish jerks
who are way more numerous
who are way more numerous
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但同時也需要讓許多自私的混蛋
14:21
to appreciate the fact that acute
suffering will soon endanger all of us,
suffering will soon endanger all of us,
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領悟到劇烈的苦難
很快就會危及到我們所有人
很快就會危及到我們所有人
14:27
not just those afflicted.
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而不是只有那些相關的人
14:29
Those jerks will then
join us and Al Capone
join us and Al Capone
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那些混蛋接著會攜手黑幫老大和我們
14:32
in fighting this condition.
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一起對抗這個情形
14:35
Third, each and every one of us
can be and should be a white blood cell
can be and should be a white blood cell
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第三，我們每個人
在這個免疫系統之中都可以
也應該成為白血球
也應該成為白血球
14:41
in this immune system.
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14:43
Suicidal mass murderers
can be despicable, yes,
can be despicable, yes,
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大規模自殺式攻擊的兇手相當的卑劣
14:46
but they're also terribly
broken and sad people,
broken and sad people,
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但是他們也是相當傷心絕望的人
14:50
and those of us who aren't
need to do what we can
need to do what we can
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而我們需要竭盡所能
14:53
to make sure nobody goes unloved.
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讓每個人都感受到關愛
14:56
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
15:01
Next, we need to make
fighting these dangers
fighting these dangers
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接著我們需要對抗
15:04
core to the discipline
of synthetic biology.
of synthetic biology.
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危害合生學核心原則的事物
15:07
There are companies out there
that at least claim
that at least claim
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外面有些公司至少聲稱
15:09
they let their engineers
spend 20 percent of their time
spend 20 percent of their time
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他們讓工程師擁有五分之一的時間
15:12
doing whatever they want.
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去做他們想做的事情
15:13
What if those who hire bioengineers
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如果那些雇用生物工程師的人
15:16
and become them
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變成工程師
15:17
give 20 percent of their time
to building defenses for the common good?
to building defenses for the common good?
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花掉他們五分之一的時間
為公共利益建立防禦機制好嗎？
為公共利益建立防禦機制好嗎？
15:23
Not a bad idea, right?
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這是個不錯的點子吧？
15:24
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
15:26
Then, finally: this won't be any fun.
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最後：這一切不會太有趣
15:28
But we need to let our minds
go to some very, very dark places,
go to some very, very dark places,
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但是我們需要去思考
一些非常灰暗的地方
一些非常灰暗的地方
15:32
and thank you for letting me
take you there this evening.
take you there this evening.
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而且我感謝大家
讓我今晚能夠帶著各位省思
讓我今晚能夠帶著各位省思
15:36
We survived the Cold War
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我們度過了冷戰
15:38
because every one of us understood
and respected the danger,
and respected the danger,
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因為我們每個人都瞭解
而且敬畏戰爭的威脅
而且敬畏戰爭的威脅
15:42
in part, because we had spent decades
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一部分是因為我們
曾用了幾十年的時間
曾用了幾十年的時間
15:45
telling ourselves terrifying ghost stories
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告訴我們自己一些相當驚悚的鬼故事
15:47
with names like "Dr. Strangelove"
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像是《奇愛博士》
15:49
and "War Games."
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還有《戰爭遊戲》
15:51
This is no time to remain calm.
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現在沒有時間保持冷靜
15:53
This is one of those rare times
when it's incredibly productive
when it's incredibly productive
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這是一個罕見的時代
15:56
to freak the hell out --
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搞出一堆嚇死人的鬼東西
15:59
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
16:02
to come up with some ghost stories
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這是為了想出一些鬼故事
16:04
and use our fear as fuel
to fight this danger.
to fight this danger.
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利用我們的恐懼
作為對抗危險的動力
作為對抗危險的動力
16:09
Because, all these
terrible scenarios I've painted --
terrible scenarios I've painted --
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因為我所描繪的糟糕情境
16:13
they are not destiny.
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並不是注定要發生的
16:16
They're optional.
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而是取決於我們的選擇
16:18
The danger is still kind of distant.
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這個威脅還距離我們有些遠
16:22
And that means it will only befall us
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但是如果我們放任它
16:25
if we allow it to.
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那麼災難將會降臨在我們頭上
16:27
Let's not.
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我們千萬別這麼做
16:29
Thank you very much for listening.
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非常感謝大家的聆聽
16:30
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneurRob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody.
Why you should listen
Rob Reid is an author and a serial entrepreneur. He founded the company that created the Rhapsody music website, and his latest book, Year Zero, was published in July 2013. In it, aliens seek to erase the ruinous fines on their vast collections of pirated American music by destroying the Earth. Parts of it are made up. The audiobook version will be read by John Hodgman.
On the TED Blog, read more on the numbers behind Copyright Math >>
Rob Reid | Speaker | TED.com