TEDSummit 2019
Tim Flannery: Can seaweed help curb global warming?
蒂姆·弗兰纳里: 海藻能否帮助遏制全球变暖？
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现在已经是时候采取地球规模的干预手段来应对气候变化了。环保主义者蒂姆·弗兰纳里（Tim Flannery）认为海藻可以帮助我们。在这个大胆的演讲中，他分享了海藻巨大的碳捕捉能力，解释了大规模的远洋海藻养殖如何捕获我们释放到大气中的碳。观看演讲，了解更多这个可能会拯救地球的方案——以及在实现这个方案前所要做的工作。
Tim Flannery - Environmentalist
Explorer and professor Tim Flannery seeks to grasp the big picture of planetary evolution and how humans can affect it -- for better or for worse. Full bio
Explorer and professor Tim Flannery seeks to grasp the big picture of planetary evolution and how humans can affect it -- for better or for worse. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
Oh, there's a lot of it.
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哦，这里有很多这个东西。
00:18
This is seaweed.
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是海藻。
00:25
It's pretty humble stuff.
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这是很不起眼的东西。
00:27
But it does have
some remarkable qualities.
some remarkable qualities.
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但是它确实有一些了不起的特质。
00:31
For one, it grows really fast.
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其中一个就是，
它们生长得非常快。
它们生长得非常快。
00:34
So the carbon that is part
of that seaweed,
of that seaweed,
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仅在几周前，
00:38
just a few weeks ago,
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海藻中的一部分，碳，
00:40
was floating in the atmosphere
as atmospheric CO2,
as atmospheric CO2,
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以大气层中二氧化碳的形态
正漂浮在大气中，
正漂浮在大气中，
00:43
driving all the adverse consequences
of climate change.
of climate change.
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造成了气候变化中的
那些不良后果。
那些不良后果。
00:48
For the moment, it's locked
safely away in the seaweed,
safely away in the seaweed,
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而此时此刻，
碳被安全的锁在海藻中，
碳被安全的锁在海藻中，
00:51
but when that seaweed rots --
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但是当海藻腐烂时——
00:53
and by the smell of it,
it's not far away --
it's not far away --
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而且闻起来，
它离腐烂不远了——
它离腐烂不远了——
00:56
when it rots, that CO2 will be released
back to the atmosphere.
back to the atmosphere.
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当它腐烂时，二氧化碳
会被释放回大气层。
会被释放回大气层。
01:01
Wouldn't it be fantastic
if we could find a way
if we could find a way
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如果我们能够找到一种方法
可以长期把二氧化碳锁住，
可以长期把二氧化碳锁住，
01:05
of keeping that CO2 locked up long-term,
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从而为解决气候问题
做出重大贡献，
做出重大贡献，
01:09
and thereby significantly contributing
to solving the climate problem?
to solving the climate problem?
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这样岂不是棒极了？
01:15
What I'm talking about here is drawdown.
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我现在所说的是吸收。
01:18
It's now become the other half
of the climate challenge.
of the climate challenge.
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现在它变成了气候挑战的另一部分。
01:22
And that's because
we have delayed so long,
we have delayed so long,
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是因为我们已经在
解决气候变化的问题上
解决气候变化的问题上
01:26
in terms of addressing climate change,
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拖延了太久了。
01:28
that we now have to do two very big
and very difficult things at once.
and very difficult things at once.
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所以我们现在不得不同时面对
两件非常重大而艰难的问题。
两件非常重大而艰难的问题。
01:33
We have to cut our emissions
and clean our energy supply
and clean our energy supply
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我们要减少排放，
清洁我们的能源供应，
清洁我们的能源供应，
01:36
at the same time that we draw
significant volumes
significant volumes
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同时要大量吸收
01:39
of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.
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大气层中的二氧化碳。
01:42
If we don't do that, about 25 percent
of the CO2 we put in the air
of the CO2 we put in the air
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如果我们不这样做，
我们排入到空气中的二氧化碳
我们排入到空气中的二氧化碳
01:47
will remain there,
by human standards, forever.
by human standards, forever.
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按照人类的标准，
有大约 25% 会永远留在那。
有大约 25% 会永远留在那。
01:50
So we have to act.
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所以我们必须行动起来。
01:54
This is really a new phase
in addressing the climate crisis
in addressing the climate crisis
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这真的是解决气候危机的
一个新的阶段，
一个新的阶段，
01:57
and it demands new thinking.
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我们需要有新的思路。
02:00
So, ideas like carbon offsets
really don't make sense
really don't make sense
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所以，像碳抵消
这种想法，在当今时代
这种想法，在当今时代
02:04
in the modern era.
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并没有什么意义。
02:05
You know, when you offset something,
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当你们选择抵消，
02:07
you say, "I'll permit myself to put
some greenhouse gas into the atmosphere,
some greenhouse gas into the atmosphere,
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你会说，“我会允许自己
向大气层中排放温室气体，
向大气层中排放温室气体，
02:11
but then I'll offset it
by drawing it down."
by drawing it down."
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而之后我会通过吸收它来抵消掉。”
02:13
When you've got to both cut your emissions
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当你可以既减少排放量
02:15
and draw down CO2,
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又吸收二氧化碳，
02:17
that thinking doesn't make sense anymore.
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之前那种想法不再有意义。
02:19
And when we're talking about drawdown,
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而当我们讨论吸收，
02:21
we're talking about putting large volumes
of greenhouses gases, particularly CO2,
of greenhouses gases, particularly CO2,
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我们说的是要将大量
的温室气体，尤其是二氧化碳
的温室气体，尤其是二氧化碳
02:26
out of circulation.
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移出大气循环。
02:28
And to do that, we need a carbon price.
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而要做这个，我们需要为碳定价。
02:31
We need a significant price
that we'll pay for that service
that we'll pay for that service
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我们需要很高的价格
来支付为我们提供福利的
来支付为我们提供福利的
02:34
that we'll all benefit from.
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这项服务。
02:38
We've made almost no progress so far
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至今我们对于气候问题的第二部分
02:40
with the second half
of the climate challenge.
of the climate challenge.
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基本上没有一点进展。
02:42
It's not on most people's radar.
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这不在大多数人的关注范围内。
02:45
And, you know, I must say,
at times, I hear people saying,
at times, I hear people saying,
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而且我必须说，
有时候，我听见人们说，
有时候，我听见人们说，
02:50
"I've lost hope that we can do anything
about the climate crisis."
about the climate crisis."
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“我对我们能为气候危机所做的
已经失去希望了。”
已经失去希望了。”
02:53
And look, I've had my sleepless
nights too, I can tell you.
nights too, I can tell you.
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而且我可以告诉你们，
我已经失眠了好几夜了。
我已经失眠了好几夜了。
02:57
But I'm here today as an ambassador
for this humble weed, seaweed.
for this humble weed, seaweed.
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但是今天我的身份是
这个不起眼的海藻的大使。
这个不起眼的海藻的大使。
03:02
I think it has the potential
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我觉得它有潜力
03:06
to be a big part of addressing
the challenge of climate change
the challenge of climate change
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成为解决气候变化问题的
一个重大部分，
一个重大部分，
03:11
and a big part of our future.
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也会是我们未来的一个重要部分。
03:14
Now, what the scientists are telling us
we need to do over the next 80-odd years
we need to do over the next 80-odd years
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科学家们告诉我们，
我们需要在接下来的 80 年，
我们需要在接下来的 80 年，
03:18
to the end of this century,
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直到本世纪结束，
03:20
is to cut our greenhouse gas emissions
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每年减少
03:22
by three percent every year,
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3% 温室气体的排放，
03:25
and draw three gigatons of CO2
out of the atmosphere every year.
out of the atmosphere every year.
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而且每年吸收大气层中
三十亿吨的二氧化碳。
三十亿吨的二氧化碳。
03:30
Those numbers are so large
that they baffle us.
that they baffle us.
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这些数字太大了，让我们无所适从。
03:33
But that's what the scientists
tell us we need to do.
tell us we need to do.
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但是这是科学家告诉我们要去做的。
03:37
I really hate showing this graph,
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我非常讨厌展示这个图片，
03:39
but I'm sorry, I have to do it.
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但是对不起，我不得不给大家看。
03:41
It is very eloquent
in terms of telling the story
in terms of telling the story
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它对于讲述关于
我在气候变化问题的
我在气候变化问题的
03:44
of my personal failure
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支持工作中
03:46
in terms of all the advocacy I've done
in climate change work
in climate change work
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的失败故事是非常有说服力的，
03:49
and in fact, our collective failure
to address climate change.
to address climate change.
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实际上，是我们集体的失败。
03:52
You can see our trajectory there
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你们可以在这看见
03:55
in terms of warming
and greenhouse gas concentrations.
and greenhouse gas concentrations.
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我们对于气候变暖和
温室气体浓度问题的行动轨迹。
温室气体浓度问题的行动轨迹。
03:58
You can see all of the great
scientific announcements that we've made,
scientific announcements that we've made,
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可以看见我们做的
所有的科学公告，
所有的科学公告，
04:02
saying how much danger
we face with climate change.
we face with climate change.
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解释我们面临的气候变化
有多么危险。
有多么危险。
04:04
You can see the political meetings.
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可以看见我们的政治会议。
04:06
None of it has changed the trajectory.
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没有任何东西改变我们的轨迹。
04:10
And this is why we need new thinking,
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这就是为什么我们需要新的思路，
04:12
we need a new approach.
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我们需要一个新的途径。
04:15
So how might we go about drawing down
greenhouse gases at a large scale?
greenhouse gases at a large scale?
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那么我们如何大幅度
吸收掉温室气体呢？
吸收掉温室气体呢？
04:23
There's really only two ways of doing it,
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这其实只有两条道路，
04:25
and I've done a very deep dive
into drawdown.
into drawdown.
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而且我已经深入研究过
吸收这个方法了。
吸收这个方法了。
04:28
And I'll preempt my --
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我会先发制人——
04:31
And I would say this stuff comes up
smelling like roses at the end of the day.
smelling like roses at the end of the day.
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我要说这个东西最终
会闻起来像玫瑰。
会闻起来像玫瑰。
04:37
It does, it's one of the best options,
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它确实是最好的一个选项。
04:39
but there are many, many possibilities.
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但是也有其他很多，很多可能性。
04:42
There are chemical pathways
and biological pathways.
and biological pathways.
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两种方法分别是
化学途径和生物途径。
化学途径和生物途径。
04:45
So two ways, really,
of getting the job done.
of getting the job done.
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两者都可以达到目的。
04:48
The biological pathways are fantastic
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生物途径是很棒的，
04:50
because the energy source
that's needed to drive them, the sun,
that's needed to drive them, the sun,
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因为需要驱动它们的
能量来源，太阳，
能量来源，太阳，
04:54
is effectively free.
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实际上是免费的。
04:55
We use the sun to drive
photosynthesis in plants,
photosynthesis in plants,
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我们用太阳来带动
植物的光合作用，
植物的光合作用，
04:59
break apart that CO2
and capture the carbon.
and capture the carbon.
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分解二氧化碳，
捕捉碳元素。
捕捉碳元素。
05:01
There are also chemical pathways.
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然后还有化学途径。
05:03
They sound ominous, but actually,
they're not bad at all.
they're not bad at all.
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听起来不太妙，但是实际上，
它们一点也不糟糕。
它们一点也不糟糕。
05:06
The difficulty they face is
that we have to actually pay
that we have to actually pay
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大家面对的难处是
我们不得不为
我们不得不为
05:09
for the energy
that's required to do the job
that's required to do the job
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工作所需的能源花钱
05:11
or pay to facilitate that energy.
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或者为让那些能源
更方便易得花钱。
更方便易得花钱。
05:14
Direct air capture is a great example
of a chemical pathway,
of a chemical pathway,
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直接的空气捕捉是
化学途径的一个好例子。
化学途径的一个好例子。
05:17
and people are using that right now
to take CO2 out of the atmosphere
to take CO2 out of the atmosphere
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人们正在用这种方式
将二氧化碳从大气中，
将二氧化碳从大气中，
05:20
and manufacture biofuels
or manufacture plastics.
or manufacture plastics.
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制造生物燃料或制造塑料
的过程中搜集起来。
的过程中搜集起来。
05:24
Great progress is being made,
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人们已经有了很大的进展，
05:26
but it will be many decades
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但是要实现通过化学途径
05:28
before those chemical pathways
are drawing down a gigaton of CO2 a year.
are drawing down a gigaton of CO2 a year.
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一年降低 10 亿吨二氧化碳，
还要等上好几十年。
还要等上好几十年。
05:33
The biological pathways offer us
a lot more hope, I think,
a lot more hope, I think,
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我认为，生物途径在短期内
05:36
in the short term.
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会给我们更多希望。
05:38
You've probably heard
about reforestation, planting trees,
about reforestation, planting trees,
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你们可能听过把造林，植树
05:42
as a solution to the climate problem.
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作为气候问题的解决方法。
05:44
You know, it's a fair question:
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这是一个合理的疑问：
05:46
Can we plant our way out
of this problem by using trees?
of this problem by using trees?
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我们能只通过种树来解决问题吗?
05:49
I'm skeptical about that
for a number of reasons.
for a number of reasons.
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由于多种原因，
我对此表示怀疑。
我对此表示怀疑。
05:52
One is just the scale of the problem.
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其中之一就是这个问题的规模。
05:55
All trees start as seeds,
little tiny things,
little tiny things,
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所有树都是从非常小的种子开始，
05:58
and it's many decades
before they've reached
before they've reached
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在它们获得充分捕捉碳的能力前
06:00
their full carbon-capture potential.
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需要好几十年。
06:02
And secondly,
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第二点，
如果看看地表，
会发现它的使用率已经很高了。
会发现它的使用率已经很高了。
06:04
if you look at the land surface,
you see that it's so heavily utilized.
you see that it's so heavily utilized.
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06:08
We get our food from it,
we get our forestry products from it,
we get our forestry products from it,
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我们从中获取食物，
从中获取林业产品，
从中获取林业产品，
06:11
biodiversity protection
and water and everything else.
and water and everything else.
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生物多样性保护，
水，以及其它所有东西。
水，以及其它所有东西。
06:14
To expect that we'll find enough space
to deal with this problem,
to deal with this problem,
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期盼我们可以找到
足够的空间来解决这个问题，
足够的空间来解决这个问题，
我觉得这首先就是个问题。
06:17
I think is going to be quite problematic.
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06:21
But if we look offshore,
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但是如果我们看海上，
06:23
wee see a solution where there's already
an existing industry,
an existing industry,
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我们发现了一个解决方案，
而且已经形成了一个产业，
而且已经形成了一个产业，
06:26
and where there's a clearer way forward.
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这似乎是一个更明确的前进方向。
06:28
The oceans cover
about 70 percent of our planet.
about 70 percent of our planet.
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海洋覆盖了地球面积的 70%，
06:32
They play a really big role
in regulating our climate,
in regulating our climate,
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在调节我们的气候上
扮演着非常重要的角色。
扮演着非常重要的角色。
06:35
and if we can enhance
the growth of seaweed in them,
the growth of seaweed in them,
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如果我们能够增强
海洋中海藻的生长，
海洋中海藻的生长，
06:38
we can use them, I think,
to develop a climate-altering crop.
to develop a climate-altering crop.
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我认为我们就可以用它们
来开发一种改变气候的农作物。
来开发一种改变气候的农作物。
06:43
There are so many
different kinds of seaweed,
different kinds of seaweed,
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海洋中有很多不同种类的海藻，
06:45
there's unbelievable
genetic diversity in seaweed,
genetic diversity in seaweed,
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存在着不可思议的遗传多样性，
06:48
and they're very ancient;
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而且它们非常古老；
06:49
they were some of the first
multicellular organisms ever to evolve.
multicellular organisms ever to evolve.
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它们属于最先进化
的一部分多细胞生物。
的一部分多细胞生物。
06:53
People are using special
kinds of seaweed now
kinds of seaweed now
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人们正为了一些特定的原因
06:56
for particular purposes,
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使用特别种类的海藻，
06:57
like developing very high-quality
pharmaceutical products.
pharmaceutical products.
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像开发非常高质量的药物。
07:01
But you can also use seaweed
to take a seaweed bath,
to take a seaweed bath,
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你也可以泡一个海藻浴，
07:04
it's supposed to be good for your skin;
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它应该会对你的皮肤有好处；
07:06
I can't testify to that,
but you can do it.
but you can do it.
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我无法证明这一点，
但是你们可以去证明。
但是你们可以去证明。
07:08
The scalability is the big thing
about seaweed farming.
about seaweed farming.
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可扩展性是海藻养殖中的一件大事。
07:11
You know, if we could cover
nine percent of the world's ocean
nine percent of the world's ocean
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如果我们的海藻养殖能覆盖全球海洋中
07:15
in seaweed farms,
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9% 的海藻，
07:17
we could draw down the equivalent
of all of the greenhouse gases
of all of the greenhouse gases
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我们就可以把
一年排放的温室气体量
一年排放的温室气体量
07:20
we put up in any one year,
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都搜集起来，
07:22
more than 50 gigatons.
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多于 500 亿吨。
07:24
Now, I thought that was fantastic
when I first read it,
when I first read it,
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当我第一次读到它时，
我觉得这棒极了，
我觉得这棒极了，
但是我认为最好计算一下
全世界海洋的 9% 有多大。
全世界海洋的 9% 有多大。
07:26
but I thought I'd better calculate how big
nine percent of the world's oceans is.
nine percent of the world's oceans is.
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事实证明，有四个半澳洲大，
07:30
It turns out, it's about
four and a half Australias,
four and a half Australias,
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也就是我住的地方。
07:33
the place I live in.
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而我们现在距离目标有多远呢？
07:34
And how close are we
to that at the moment?
to that at the moment?
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我们现在有多少海藻养殖场呢？
07:36
How many ocean-going seaweed farms
do we actually have out there?
do we actually have out there?
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07:40
Zero.
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零。
07:41
But we do have some prototypes,
and therein lies some hope.
and therein lies some hope.
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但是我们有一些试验模型，
还保有一点希望。
还保有一点希望。
07:45
This little drawing here of a seaweed farm
that's currently under construction
that's currently under construction
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这是正在建设中的
海藻养殖场的微型示意图，
海藻养殖场的微型示意图，
07:50
tells you some very interesting
things about seaweed.
things about seaweed.
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它能告诉你们关于海藻的
一些有趣的事情。
一些有趣的事情。
07:52
You can see the seaweed
growing on that rack,
growing on that rack,
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你们可以看见海藻在架子上生长，
07:55
25 meters down in the ocean there.
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在海面以下 25 米的地方。
07:57
It's really different
from anything you see on land.
from anything you see on land.
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它们和我们在陆地上
看见的任何东西都不同。
看见的任何东西都不同。
08:00
And the reason being that, you know,
seaweed is not like trees,
seaweed is not like trees,
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而原因就是，海藻不像树木，
08:04
it doesn't have nonproductive parts
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它没有非生产性的部分，
08:07
like roots and trunks
and branches and bark.
and branches and bark.
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像根，树干，树枝和树皮。
08:10
The whole of the plant
is pretty much photosynthetic,
is pretty much photosynthetic,
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整个植物都在做光合作用，
08:14
so it grows fast.
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所以它长得很快。
08:15
Seaweed can grow a meter a day.
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海藻可以每天长一米。
08:18
And how do we sequester the carbon?
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我们如何封存碳呢？
08:21
Again, it's very different from on land.
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同样，与陆地上非常不同，
08:23
All you need to do
is cut that seaweed off --
is cut that seaweed off --
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我们需要做的仅仅就是砍掉海藻，
08:26
drifts into the ocean abyss,
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让它飘入海洋深处，
08:27
Once it's down a kilometer,
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一旦达到海面下一千米，
08:29
the carbon in that seaweed is effectively
out of the atmospheric system
out of the atmospheric system
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海藻中的碳
在几个世纪或者几千年内
在几个世纪或者几千年内
08:33
for centuries or millennia.
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都会远离大气系统。
08:35
Whereas if you plant a forest,
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不论你在哪种植森林，
08:37
you've got to worry
about forest fires, bugs, etc.,
about forest fires, bugs, etc.,
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你都需要去担心森林大火，虫害，
08:40
releasing that carbon.
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碳排放等等问题。
08:42
The key to this farm, though,
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然而，养殖的关键是
08:44
is that little pipe
going down into the depths.
going down into the depths.
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深入到海底深处的小管子。
08:48
You know, the mid-ocean is basically
a vast biological desert.
a vast biological desert.
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海洋中层基本上是
广阔的生物沙漠。
广阔的生物沙漠。
08:52
There's no nutrients there
that were used up long ago.
that were used up long ago.
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那里的营养早就已经被用光。
08:55
But just 500 meters down,
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但是往下仅仅 500 米，
08:57
there is cool, very nutrient-rich water.
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就有凉爽，营养丰富的水。
09:00
And with just a little bit
of clean, renewable energy,
of clean, renewable energy,
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而且利用一点点清洁可再生能源，
09:03
you can pump that water up
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可以把那部分水抽上来，
09:04
and use the nutrients in it
to irrigate your seaweed crop.
to irrigate your seaweed crop.
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利用里面的营养灌溉海藻。
09:09
So I think this really has
so many benefits.
so many benefits.
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我认为这个方法有很多益处。
09:14
It's changing a biological desert,
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它将生物沙漠，
也就是海底中部，
09:18
the mid-ocean,
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09:19
into a productive, maybe even
planet-saving solution.
planet-saving solution.
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改变成一个有生机的，
甚至是可以拯救地球的方案。
甚至是可以拯救地球的方案。
09:25
So what could go wrong?
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那么有没有出错的情况呢？
09:26
Well, anything we're talking
about at this scale
about at this scale
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我们现在谈论的规模
09:30
involves a planetary-scale intervention.
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覆盖了整个地球。
09:32
And we have to be very careful.
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我们不得不非常小心。
09:34
I think that piles of stinking seaweed
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我认为那堆发臭的海藻
09:36
are probably going to be
the least of our problems.
the least of our problems.
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可能会是我们最小的问题，
09:39
There's other unforeseen things
that will happen.
that will happen.
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还有其它无法预见的事情发生。
其中一个当我说到它
就非常担心的是，
就非常担心的是，
09:41
One of the things that really worries me,
when I talk about this,
when I talk about this,
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09:44
is the fate of biodiversity
in the deep ocean.
in the deep ocean.
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深海生物多样性的命运。
09:47
If we are putting gigatons of seaweed
into the deep ocean,
into the deep ocean,
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如果我们放了几十亿吨
的海藻到深海中，
的海藻到深海中，
09:50
we're affecting life down there.
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我们会影响那里的生命。
09:51
The good news is that we know
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好消息是，我们知道
09:53
that a lot of seaweed
already reaches the deep ocean,
already reaches the deep ocean,
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已经有很多海藻
在海上风暴后或者通过海底峡谷
在海上风暴后或者通过海底峡谷
09:56
after storms or through submarine canyons.
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到达了海洋深处。
09:59
So we're not talking
about a novel process here;
about a novel process here;
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所以我们在讨论的
不是一个全新的过程；
不是一个全新的过程；
10:02
we are talking about
enhancing a natural process.
enhancing a natural process.
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我们说的是改善一个自然进程。
10:07
And we'll learn as we go.
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随着我们的前行，
我们会了解更多。
我们会了解更多。
10:09
I mean, it may be that these ocean-going
seaweed farms will need to be mobile,
seaweed farms will need to be mobile,
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我的意思是，这些远洋海藻养殖
需要是可移动的，
需要是可移动的，
10:13
to distribute the seaweed
across vast areas of the ocean,
across vast areas of the ocean,
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可以跨越大片海洋区域
来分布这些海藻，
来分布这些海藻，
10:16
rather than creating
a big stinking pile in one place.
a big stinking pile in one place.
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而不是在一个地方
制造大片的臭味。
制造大片的臭味。
10:19
It may be that we'll need
to char the seaweed --
to char the seaweed --
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可能我们需要的是碳化海藻，
10:23
so create a sort of an inert,
mineral biochar
mineral biochar
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在我们把它们发放到深海前
10:26
before we dispatch it into the deep.
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2081
产生一种惰性的矿物炭。
10:28
We won't know until we start the process,
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2341
只有当我们开始这个过程时，
我们才会知道，
我们才会知道，
10:31
and we will learn effectively by doing.
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而且只有通过实践才会有效学习。
10:34
I just want to take you
to contemporary seaweed farming.
to contemporary seaweed farming.
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我想简单介绍一下
现代海藻养殖。
现代海藻养殖。
10:38
It's a big business --
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1151
这是一个很大的行业——
10:39
it's a six-billion-dollar-a-year business.
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一个每年产值六十亿的生意。
10:41
These seaweed farms off South Korea --
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1878
在南韩的海藻养殖——
10:43
you can see them from space,
they are huge.
they are huge.
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2451
你们可以从太空看到，它们面积很大。
10:46
And they're increasingly
not just seaweed farms.
not just seaweed farms.
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而且它们越来越多，
不只是海藻养殖。
不只是海藻养殖。
10:48
What people are doing in places like this
is something called ocean permaculture.
is something called ocean permaculture.
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在这种地方人们从事
的是做海洋朴门。
的是做海洋朴门。
10:53
And in ocean permaculture,
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1849
在海洋朴门中，
10:55
you grow fish, shellfish
and seaweed all together.
and seaweed all together.
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3493
人们将鱼，贝类和海藻一起培育。
10:58
And the reason it works so well
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这个领域发展得很好的原因是
11:00
is that the seaweed
makes the seawater less acid.
makes the seawater less acid.
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3801
海藻使得海水的酸性降低。
11:04
It provides an ideal environment
for growing marine protein.
for growing marine protein.
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这为海洋蛋白质的生长
提供了理想的环境。
提供了理想的环境。
11:08
If we covered nine percent
of the world's oceans
of the world's oceans
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如果我们在全世界 9% 的海洋中
11:10
in ocean permaculture,
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都从事海洋朴门，
11:12
we would be producing enough protein
in the form of fish and shellfish
in the form of fish and shellfish
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4298
我们将以鱼和贝类的形式
生产出足够的蛋白质
生产出足够的蛋白质
11:16
to give every person
in a population of 10 billion
in a population of 10 billion
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3495
来给 100 亿人口每人每年
11:20
200 kilograms of high-quality
protein per year.
protein per year.
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提供 200 公斤高质量的蛋白质。
11:24
So, we've got a multipotent solution here.
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2047
所以，我们现在有了一个
全能的解决方案。
全能的解决方案。
11:26
We can address climate change,
we can feed the world,
we can feed the world,
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2524
我们可以解决气候变化，
可以为世界供给食物，
可以为世界供给食物，
11:29
we can deacidify the oceans.
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1867
可以给海洋降低酸性。
11:32
The economics of all of this
is going to be challenging.
is going to be challenging.
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2638
所有这些在经济上都非常有挑战。
11:35
We'll be investing many,
many billions of dollars
many billions of dollars
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我们要投入好几十亿美元
11:38
into these solutions,
228
686300
1270
到这些方案中来，
11:39
and they will take decades
to get to the gigaton scale.
to get to the gigaton scale.
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2926
然后要花几十年时间
达到几十亿吨的规模。
达到几十亿吨的规模。
11:42
The reason that I'm convinced
that this is going to happen
that this is going to happen
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3195
让我相信这个计划会实现的原因是，
11:46
is that unless we get the gas
out of the air,
out of the air,
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2817
除非我们能够
将温室气体排出大气，
将温室气体排出大气，
11:49
it is going to keep driving
adverse consequences.
adverse consequences.
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2841
不然会继续带来不良的后果。
11:51
It will flood our cities,
233
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1825
海水会淹没我们的城市，
11:53
it will deprive us of food,
234
701725
1487
剥夺我们的食物，
11:55
it will cause all sorts of civil unrest.
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3311
会引起各种内乱。
11:58
So anyone who's got a solution
to dealing with this problem
to dealing with this problem
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所以任何有解决方案的人
12:01
has a valuable asset.
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709825
1400
都拥有了宝贵的资产，
12:03
And already, as I've explained,
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2793
而且，就像我解释过的，
12:06
ocean permaculture is well on the road
to being economically sustainable.
to being economically sustainable.
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4827
海洋朴门已经在发展，
正在变成经济上可持续的产业。
正在变成经济上可持续的产业。
12:13
You know, in the next 30 years,
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1817
在接下来 30 年，
12:14
we have to go from being
a carbon-emitting economy
a carbon-emitting economy
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4277
我们要从一个碳排放经济体
12:19
to a carbon-absorbing economy.
242
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2000
走向碳吸收经济体。
12:21
And that doesn't seem like very long.
243
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2467
看起来这并不遥远了。
12:24
But half of the greenhouse gases
that we've put into the atmosphere,
that we've put into the atmosphere,
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3761
但是我们释放入大气中的
一半温室气体，
一半温室气体，
12:28
we've put there in the last 30 years.
245
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2706
是我们在过去 30 年排放的。
12:31
My argument is,
246
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1179
我认为，
12:32
if we can put the gas in in 30 years,
247
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2778
如果我们可以在 30 年内
排放这些气体，
排放这些气体，
12:35
we can pull it out in 30 years.
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743636
2801
我们也可以在 30 年内
将它们吸收。
将它们吸收。
12:38
And if you doubt how much
can be done over 30 years,
can be done over 30 years,
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如果你们怀疑我们在 30 年
的时间能有多少进展，
的时间能有多少进展，
12:41
just cast your mind back
a century, to 1919,
a century, to 1919,
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3564
只要回溯到一个世纪前的 1919 年，
12:44
compare it with 1950.
251
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1889
与 1950 年比较一下。
12:46
Now, in 1919, here in Edinburgh,
252
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2526
在 1919 年的爱丁堡，
12:49
you might have seen
a canvas and wood biplane.
a canvas and wood biplane.
253
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2998
你们可能见过
帆布和木头做的飞机。
帆布和木头做的飞机。
12:52
Thirty years later,
you'd be seeing jet aircraft.
you'd be seeing jet aircraft.
254
760217
2412
30 年后，你们看见的是
喷气式飞机。
喷气式飞机。
12:55
Transport in the street
were horses in 1919.
were horses in 1919.
255
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2960
1919 年街上的交通工具是马车。
12:58
By 1950, they're motor vehicles.
256
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2699
1950 年，变成了摩托车。
13:01
1919, we had gun powder;
257
769093
2183
1919 年，我们有枪作为武器；
13:03
1950, we had nuclear power.
258
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2414
1950 年，我们有了核能。
13:06
We can do a lot in a short period of time.
259
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2920
我们在一段很短时间的时间内
就能做很多事情。
就能做很多事情。
13:08
But it all depends upon us believing
that we can find a solution.
that we can find a solution.
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3472
而这些全依靠于我们相信
我们能够找到一个解决办法。
我们能够找到一个解决办法。
13:13
Now what I would love to do
is bring together all of the people
is bring together all of the people
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现在我想要做的是，聚集所有的人
13:16
with knowledge in this space.
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2229
和在这个领域的知识。
13:19
The engineers who know
how to build structures offshore,
how to build structures offshore,
263
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2952
知道如何建造海上结构的工程师，
13:22
the seaweed farmers, the financiers,
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2182
海藻养殖员，金融家，
13:24
the government regulators,
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1397
政府监管者，
13:25
the people who understand
how things are done.
how things are done.
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2888
所有知道怎样做成事情的人们。
13:29
And chart a way forward,
267
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1611
然后绘制出前进的道路，
13:30
say: How do we go from the existing
six-billion-dollar-a-year,
six-billion-dollar-a-year,
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问： 我们如何从现存的
产值 60 亿美元每年的
产值 60 亿美元每年的
13:34
inshore seaweed industry,
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802631
2000
沿海海藻产业，
13:36
to this new form of industry,
which has got so much potential,
which has got so much potential,
270
804655
3859
走向潜力巨大
但是需要大量投入的
但是需要大量投入的
13:40
but will require large
amounts of investment?
amounts of investment?
271
808538
3066
新型产业？
13:45
I'm not a betting man, you know.
272
813077
2175
我不是一个爱赌的人。
13:47
But if I were,
273
815276
1269
如果我是，
13:48
I'll tell you, my money
would be on that stuff,
would be on that stuff,
274
816569
2283
我会告诉你们，
我的钱都会下注在这里，
我的钱都会下注在这里，
13:50
it would be on seaweed.
275
818876
1360
下注在海藻上。
13:52
It's my hero.
276
820260
1438
它是我的英雄。
13:53
Thank you.
277
821722
1151
谢谢大家。
13:54
(Applause)
278
822897
3968
（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tim Flannery - EnvironmentalistExplorer and professor Tim Flannery seeks to grasp the big picture of planetary evolution and how humans can affect it -- for better or for worse.
Why you should listen
A noted explorer who has published more than 140 peer-reviewed papers and named 25 living and 50 fossil mammal species, Tim Flannery has conducted research for more than 20 years in New Guinea and surrounding countries. He has served on the board of WWF International, the Australian Wildlife Conservancy, and as an advisor to the National Geographic Society. His books include The Future Eaters: An Ecological History of the Australasian Lands and People (which has been made into a three-part documentary series) and The Weather Makers: How Man Is Changing the Climate and What It Means for Life on Earth, which has been translated into more than 20 languages.
Flannery is the cofounder of the Australian Climate Council, which provides authoritative information, advice and solutions about climate change for ordinary citizens, and chair of the Ocean Forests Foundation. In 2007 he established and chaired the Copenhagen Climate Council, and in 2011 he was appointed Australia's first Climate Commissioner.
Tim Flannery | Speaker | TED.com