TEDSummit 2019
Tim Flannery: Can seaweed help curb global warming?
提姆 法蘭內利: 海草能協助抑制全球暖化嗎？
Filmed:
Readability: 4.3
1,512,940 views
對抗氣候變遷，該是採用全球規模干預方法的時候了——環境學家提姆 法蘭內利認為海草能幫得上忙。在這剛勁的演說中，他分享海草在捕捉碳方面的潛力，並解釋大規模建造海中的海草養殖場，能如何將我們排放到大氣中的碳困在海草中。進一步了解這個有可能拯救地球的解決方案，以及如何達成這個目標。
Tim Flannery - Environmentalist
Explorer and professor Tim Flannery seeks to grasp the big picture of planetary evolution and how humans can affect it -- for better or for worse. Full bio
Explorer and professor Tim Flannery seeks to grasp the big picture of planetary evolution and how humans can affect it -- for better or for worse. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
Oh, there's a lot of it.
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喔，有好多。
00:18
This is seaweed.
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這是海草。
它是...它是很不起眼的東西。
00:25
It's pretty humble stuff.
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00:27
But it does have
some remarkable qualities.
some remarkable qualities.
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但它也有著很驚人的特質。
00:31
For one, it grows really fast.
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比如，它成長的速度非常快。
00:34
So the carbon that is part
of that seaweed,
of that seaweed,
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所以，幾週前，
本來還屬於海草一部分的碳，
00:38
just a few weeks ago,
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00:40
was floating in the atmosphere
as atmospheric CO2,
as atmospheric CO2,
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已經飄入空氣中，
成為大氣二氧化碳，
成為大氣二氧化碳，
00:43
driving all the adverse consequences
of climate change.
of climate change.
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促成各種有害的氣候變遷後果。
00:48
For the moment, it's locked
safely away in the seaweed,
safely away in the seaweed,
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目前，它還被安全地關在海草中，
00:51
but when that seaweed rots --
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但當海草腐爛時——
00:53
and by the smell of it,
it's not far away --
it's not far away --
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根據聞起來的味道，
也應該快腐爛了——
也應該快腐爛了——
00:56
when it rots, that CO2 will be released
back to the atmosphere.
back to the atmosphere.
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當海草腐爛時，二氧化碳
就會被釋放回到大氣中。
就會被釋放回到大氣中。
01:01
Wouldn't it be fantastic
if we could find a way
if we could find a way
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大家應該都非常希望，
我們能夠找到一種方法，
我們能夠找到一種方法，
01:05
of keeping that CO2 locked up long-term,
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將二氧化碳長期關在海草中，
01:09
and thereby significantly contributing
to solving the climate problem?
to solving the climate problem?
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因而對解決氣候問題
有顯著的貢獻吧？
有顯著的貢獻吧？
01:15
What I'm talking about here is drawdown.
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我在這裡要談的是減量。
01:18
It's now become the other half
of the climate challenge.
of the climate challenge.
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它現在已經變成
氣候挑戰的另一半了。
氣候挑戰的另一半了。
01:22
And that's because
we have delayed so long,
we have delayed so long,
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那是因為在處理氣候變遷上，
我們已拖延了太久了，
01:26
in terms of addressing climate change,
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01:28
that we now have to do two very big
and very difficult things at once.
and very difficult things at once.
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造成我們現在一次要面對
兩件非常非常困難的大事。
兩件非常非常困難的大事。
01:33
We have to cut our emissions
and clean our energy supply
and clean our energy supply
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我們得要削減排放，
以及使能量供應更乾淨，
以及使能量供應更乾淨，
01:36
at the same time that we draw
significant volumes
significant volumes
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同時，我們也得要除去
大氣中大量的二氧化碳。
大氣中大量的二氧化碳。
01:39
of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.
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01:42
If we don't do that, about 25 percent
of the CO2 we put in the air
of the CO2 we put in the air
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如果我們不這麼做，我們排放到
大氣中的二氧化碳大約有 25%
大氣中的二氧化碳大約有 25%
01:47
will remain there,
by human standards, forever.
by human standards, forever.
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會留在大氣中，以人類標準來說，
會持續到永遠。
會持續到永遠。
01:50
So we have to act.
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所以我們得馬上行動。
01:54
This is really a new phase
in addressing the climate crisis
in addressing the climate crisis
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現在是處理氣候危機的一個新階段，
01:57
and it demands new thinking.
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需要新思維。
02:00
So, ideas like carbon offsets
really don't make sense
really don't make sense
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所以，「碳補償」這種想法
在現代是說不通的。
02:04
in the modern era.
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02:05
You know, when you offset something,
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當你要做補償時，你會說：
02:07
you say, "I'll permit myself to put
some greenhouse gas into the atmosphere,
some greenhouse gas into the atmosphere,
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「我容許我自己放
一些溫室氣體到大氣中，
一些溫室氣體到大氣中，
02:11
but then I'll offset it
by drawing it down."
by drawing it down."
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然後我會減量做為補償。」
02:13
When you've got to both cut your emissions
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當你同時要削減你的排放，
02:15
and draw down CO2,
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和減少既有二氧化碳時，
02:17
that thinking doesn't make sense anymore.
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那種思維就不再合理了。
02:19
And when we're talking about drawdown,
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當我們談減量時，
我們談的是將非常大量的
溫室氣體，特別是二氧化碳，
溫室氣體，特別是二氧化碳，
02:21
we're talking about putting large volumes
of greenhouses gases, particularly CO2,
of greenhouses gases, particularly CO2,
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02:26
out of circulation.
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從大氣循環中除去。
02:28
And to do that, we need a carbon price.
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若要做到這一點，就需要碳價。
02:31
We need a significant price
that we'll pay for that service
that we'll pay for that service
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針對這個讓大家受益的服務，
我們需要訂高價。
02:34
that we'll all benefit from.
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02:38
We've made almost no progress so far
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在另一半的氣候挑戰上，
02:40
with the second half
of the climate challenge.
of the climate challenge.
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我們幾乎沒有進展。
02:42
It's not on most people's radar.
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大部分人沒有意識到它。
02:45
And, you know, I must say,
at times, I hear people saying,
at times, I hear people saying,
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而且，我必須說，
有時，我聽見人們說：
有時，我聽見人們說：
02:50
"I've lost hope that we can do anything
about the climate crisis."
about the climate crisis."
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「我失去希望了，我不認為
我們能解決氣候危機。」
我們能解決氣候危機。」
02:53
And look, I've had my sleepless
nights too, I can tell you.
nights too, I can tell you.
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我可以告訴各位，
我也有睡不著的夜晚。
我也有睡不著的夜晚。
02:57
But I'm here today as an ambassador
for this humble weed, seaweed.
for this humble weed, seaweed.
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但，今天我是代表
這個不起眼的海草來到這裡。
這個不起眼的海草來到這裡。
03:02
I think it has the potential
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我真心認為它有潛力
03:06
to be a big part of addressing
the challenge of climate change
the challenge of climate change
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在處理氣候變遷的挑戰上，
及在我們的未來中，
及在我們的未來中，
扮演一個很重要的角色。
03:11
and a big part of our future.
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03:14
Now, what the scientists are telling us
we need to do over the next 80-odd years
we need to do over the next 80-odd years
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科學家告訴我們，在這世紀結束前
剩下這八十多年間，
剩下這八十多年間，
03:18
to the end of this century,
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我們必須要做的是
03:20
is to cut our greenhouse gas emissions
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每年減少 3% 削減溫室氣體排放，
每年減少 3% 削減溫室氣體排放。
03:22
by three percent every year,
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03:25
and draw three gigatons of CO2
out of the atmosphere every year.
out of the atmosphere every year.
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另外，每年也要從大氣中移除
三十億噸的二氧化碳。
三十億噸的二氧化碳。
03:30
Those numbers are so large
that they baffle us.
that they baffle us.
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這些數字太大了，
讓我們覺得不知所措。
讓我們覺得不知所措。
03:33
But that's what the scientists
tell us we need to do.
tell us we need to do.
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但這就是科學家說我們得要做的。
03:37
I really hate showing this graph,
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我真的很不想放出這張圖，
03:39
but I'm sorry, I have to do it.
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但，很抱歉，我必須這麼做。
03:41
It is very eloquent
in terms of telling the story
in terms of telling the story
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這張圖非常有說服力地說出了
03:44
of my personal failure
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我個人失敗的故事，
03:46
in terms of all the advocacy I've done
in climate change work
in climate change work
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說明我在氣候變遷工作上
做的所有倡導都失敗了，
做的所有倡導都失敗了，
03:49
and in fact, our collective failure
to address climate change.
to address climate change.
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事實上，我們大家在處理
氣候變遷上都失敗了。
氣候變遷上都失敗了。
03:52
You can see our trajectory there
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在這裡可以看到我們的軌道，
03:55
in terms of warming
and greenhouse gas concentrations.
and greenhouse gas concentrations.
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它代表的是暖化及溫室氣體濃度。
03:58
You can see all of the great
scientific announcements that we've made,
scientific announcements that we've made,
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在圖上可以看到我們過去
所有的重大科學宣佈，
所有的重大科學宣佈，
04:02
saying how much danger
we face with climate change.
we face with climate change.
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指出我們面臨的
氣候變遷有多危險。
氣候變遷有多危險。
04:04
You can see the political meetings.
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各位可以看到政治會議。
04:06
None of it has changed the trajectory.
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以上這些都沒能讓軌道改變。
04:10
And this is why we need new thinking,
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這就是為什麼我們需要新思維。
04:12
we need a new approach.
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我們需要新方法。
04:15
So how might we go about drawing down
greenhouse gases at a large scale?
greenhouse gases at a large scale?
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所以，我們要如何大規模地
將溫室氣體減量？
將溫室氣體減量？
04:23
There's really only two ways of doing it,
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其實只有兩種方式，
04:25
and I've done a very deep dive
into drawdown.
into drawdown.
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我對於減量已經做過
很深入的研究。
很深入的研究。
04:28
And I'll preempt my --
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讓我先——
04:31
And I would say this stuff comes up
smelling like roses at the end of the day.
smelling like roses at the end of the day.
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我認為，最終它是真的很可行的。
04:37
It does, it's one of the best options,
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它確實是最好的選項之一，
04:39
but there are many, many possibilities.
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但，還有很多很多的可能性。
04:42
There are chemical pathways
and biological pathways.
and biological pathways.
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有化學途徑，有生物途徑。
04:45
So two ways, really,
of getting the job done.
of getting the job done.
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所以，有兩個方法可以搞定。
04:48
The biological pathways are fantastic
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生物途徑很棒，
04:50
because the energy source
that's needed to drive them, the sun,
that's needed to drive them, the sun,
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因為這個途徑需要用的能量來源
來自太陽，是免費的。
04:54
is effectively free.
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04:55
We use the sun to drive
photosynthesis in plants,
photosynthesis in plants,
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我們用太陽來促進
植物的光合作用，
植物的光合作用，
04:59
break apart that CO2
and capture the carbon.
and capture the carbon.
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來分解二氧化碳，
以及捕捉分解出的碳。
以及捕捉分解出的碳。
05:01
There are also chemical pathways.
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另一個是化學途徑。
05:03
They sound ominous, but actually,
they're not bad at all.
they're not bad at all.
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這個途徑聽起來有威脅性，
但其實一點也不。
但其實一點也不。
05:06
The difficulty they face is
that we have to actually pay
that we have to actually pay
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用這個途徑的困難之處在於
它們需要用的能源是要花錢的，
05:09
for the energy
that's required to do the job
that's required to do the job
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05:11
or pay to facilitate that energy.
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或促成這種能源產生是要花錢的。
05:14
Direct air capture is a great example
of a chemical pathway,
of a chemical pathway,
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化學途徑有個很好的例子：
「直接空氣捕獲」，
「直接空氣捕獲」，
05:17
and people are using that right now
to take CO2 out of the atmosphere
to take CO2 out of the atmosphere
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現在就有人用它來除去
大氣中的二氧化碳，
大氣中的二氧化碳，
05:20
and manufacture biofuels
or manufacture plastics.
or manufacture plastics.
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用來製造生物燃料或製造塑膠。
05:24
Great progress is being made,
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目前已有很大的進步，
05:26
but it will be many decades
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但仍然要數十年，
05:28
before those chemical pathways
are drawing down a gigaton of CO2 a year.
are drawing down a gigaton of CO2 a year.
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那些化學途徑才能做到
每年減少十億噸二氧化碳。
每年減少十億噸二氧化碳。
05:33
The biological pathways offer us
a lot more hope, I think,
a lot more hope, I think,
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我認為，短期來看，
生物途徑給我們更大的希望。
05:36
in the short term.
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各位可能都聽過植樹造林、種樹，
05:38
You've probably heard
about reforestation, planting trees,
about reforestation, planting trees,
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05:42
as a solution to the climate problem.
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作為解決氣候問題的方法之一。
05:44
You know, it's a fair question:
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我來問一個合理的問題：
05:46
Can we plant our way out
of this problem by using trees?
of this problem by using trees?
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我們可以用樹木
把這個問題給「種」掉嗎？
把這個問題給「種」掉嗎？
05:49
I'm skeptical about that
for a number of reasons.
for a number of reasons.
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我抱持懷疑，原因有好幾個。
05:52
One is just the scale of the problem.
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第一就是這個問題的嚴重性。
05:55
All trees start as seeds,
little tiny things,
little tiny things,
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所有的樹木一開始
都是種子，非常小的東西。
都是種子，非常小的東西。
05:58
and it's many decades
before they've reached
before they've reached
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要完全發揮出它們捕捉碳的潛能，
06:00
their full carbon-capture potential.
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需要數十年的時間。
06:02
And secondly,
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第二，各位看看陸地表面，
已經被大量利用。
已經被大量利用。
06:04
if you look at the land surface,
you see that it's so heavily utilized.
you see that it's so heavily utilized.
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06:08
We get our food from it,
we get our forestry products from it,
we get our forestry products from it,
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我們從陸地表面取得食物，
取得林木產品，
取得林木產品，
06:11
biodiversity protection
and water and everything else.
and water and everything else.
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生物多樣性保護、
水，以及所有其他的運用。
水，以及所有其他的運用。
06:14
To expect that we'll find enough space
to deal with this problem,
to deal with this problem,
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期望我們能找到足夠空間
來處理這個問題，
來處理這個問題，
06:17
I think is going to be quite problematic.
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依我所見，是不切實際的。
06:21
But if we look offshore,
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但，如果我們去近海看看，
06:23
wee see a solution where there's already
an existing industry,
an existing industry,
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我們可在既有的產業中
找到一個解決方案，
找到一個解決方案，
06:26
and where there's a clearer way forward.
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而且它有很清楚的未來方向。
06:28
The oceans cover
about 70 percent of our planet.
about 70 percent of our planet.
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地球表面約 70% 被海洋覆蓋。
06:32
They play a really big role
in regulating our climate,
in regulating our climate,
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在調節我們的氣候上，
海洋扮演了很重要的角色。
海洋扮演了很重要的角色。
06:35
and if we can enhance
the growth of seaweed in them,
the growth of seaweed in them,
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如果我們能增加
海洋中的海草生長，
海洋中的海草生長，
06:38
we can use them, I think,
to develop a climate-altering crop.
to develop a climate-altering crop.
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我想，我們就能利用它們
來開發出能改變氣候的作物。
來開發出能改變氣候的作物。
06:43
There are so many
different kinds of seaweed,
different kinds of seaweed,
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海草的種類非常多，
06:45
there's unbelievable
genetic diversity in seaweed,
genetic diversity in seaweed,
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海草的基因多樣性非常驚人，
而且它的歷史悠久；
而且它的歷史悠久；
06:48
and they're very ancient;
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06:49
they were some of the first
multicellular organisms ever to evolve.
multicellular organisms ever to evolve.
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它們是最早的有演化的
多細胞生物之一。
多細胞生物之一。
06:53
People are using special
kinds of seaweed now
kinds of seaweed now
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現在有人將幾種特別的海草
用在特定用途上，
用在特定用途上，
06:56
for particular purposes,
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06:57
like developing very high-quality
pharmaceutical products.
pharmaceutical products.
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比如開發很高品質的藥品。
07:01
But you can also use seaweed
to take a seaweed bath,
to take a seaweed bath,
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你也可以拿海草來做海草浴，
07:04
it's supposed to be good for your skin;
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聽說對皮膚有益；
我無法保證這一點，
但你可以試。
但你可以試。
07:06
I can't testify to that,
but you can do it.
but you can do it.
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07:08
The scalability is the big thing
about seaweed farming.
about seaweed farming.
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海草養殖有個很重要的特點
就是規模擴展性。
就是規模擴展性。
07:11
You know, if we could cover
nine percent of the world's ocean
nine percent of the world's ocean
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如果我們能用 9% 的全球海洋
來做海草養殖場，
07:15
in seaweed farms,
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07:17
we could draw down the equivalent
of all of the greenhouse gases
of all of the greenhouse gases
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它能減少的所有溫室氣體量，
07:20
we put up in any one year,
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等同於我們一整年釋出的量，
超過五百億噸。
超過五百億噸。
07:22
more than 50 gigatons.
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07:24
Now, I thought that was fantastic
when I first read it,
when I first read it,
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當我初次讀到這項資訊時，
我覺得太棒了，
我覺得太棒了，
但我想最好算一下
全球海洋的 9% 是多大。
全球海洋的 9% 是多大。
07:26
but I thought I'd better calculate how big
nine percent of the world's oceans is.
nine percent of the world's oceans is.
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結果是約 4.5 個澳洲，
07:30
It turns out, it's about
four and a half Australias,
four and a half Australias,
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我目前住的地方的大小。
07:33
the place I live in.
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目前我們離這個目標值有多遠呢？
07:34
And how close are we
to that at the moment?
to that at the moment?
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現在我們目前有多少個
海洋中的海草養殖場呢？
海洋中的海草養殖場呢？
07:36
How many ocean-going seaweed farms
do we actually have out there?
do we actually have out there?
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07:40
Zero.
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零。
07:41
But we do have some prototypes,
and therein lies some hope.
and therein lies some hope.
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但我們確實有些樣板，
所以還是有希望的。
所以還是有希望的。
07:45
This little drawing here of a seaweed farm
that's currently under construction
that's currently under construction
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這張小圖是一個目前正在
建造中的海草養殖場，
建造中的海草養殖場，
07:50
tells you some very interesting
things about seaweed.
things about seaweed.
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圖中呈現出一些
關於海草的有趣資訊。
關於海草的有趣資訊。
07:52
You can see the seaweed
growing on that rack,
growing on that rack,
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各位可以看到，海草在海面下
25 公尺的架上生長。
25 公尺的架上生長。
07:55
25 meters down in the ocean there.
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07:57
It's really different
from anything you see on land.
from anything you see on land.
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它和各位在陸地上
看到的東西很不一樣。
看到的東西很不一樣。
08:00
And the reason being that, you know,
seaweed is not like trees,
seaweed is not like trees,
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原因是，你也知道的，
海草和樹木不同，
海草和樹木不同，
08:04
it doesn't have nonproductive parts
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它沒有無生產力的部分，
08:07
like roots and trunks
and branches and bark.
and branches and bark.
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比如根、樹幹、樹枝和樹皮。
08:10
The whole of the plant
is pretty much photosynthetic,
is pretty much photosynthetic,
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海草整體都可以行光合作用，
08:14
so it grows fast.
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所以它生長很快。
海草每天能成長一公尺。
海草每天能成長一公尺。
08:15
Seaweed can grow a meter a day.
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08:18
And how do we sequester the carbon?
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我們如何將碳隔離出來？
08:21
Again, it's very different from on land.
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這也和陸地上的做法很不同。
08:23
All you need to do
is cut that seaweed off --
is cut that seaweed off --
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你只要做一件事，
就是把海草切斷——
就是把海草切斷——
08:26
drifts into the ocean abyss,
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讓它飄向海洋深處，
08:27
Once it's down a kilometer,
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一旦到了一公里深，
08:29
the carbon in that seaweed is effectively
out of the atmospheric system
out of the atmospheric system
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海草中的碳就會脫離大氣系統，
08:33
for centuries or millennia.
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數世紀或千年之久。
08:35
Whereas if you plant a forest,
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如果種植的是森林，
你就得擔心
森林大火、蟲害等等，
森林大火、蟲害等等，
08:37
you've got to worry
about forest fires, bugs, etc.,
about forest fires, bugs, etc.,
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08:40
releasing that carbon.
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會釋放除碳來。
08:42
The key to this farm, though,
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不過，這種海草養殖的關鍵在於
08:44
is that little pipe
going down into the depths.
going down into the depths.
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一根向下深入海中的小管子。
08:48
You know, the mid-ocean is basically
a vast biological desert.
a vast biological desert.
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基本上，海洋中部
就是一個浩瀚的生物沙漠。
就是一個浩瀚的生物沙漠。
08:52
There's no nutrients there
that were used up long ago.
that were used up long ago.
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那裡沒有養分，
很久以前就用光了。
很久以前就用光了。
08:55
But just 500 meters down,
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但，再下去五百公尺，
08:57
there is cool, very nutrient-rich water.
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就有清涼、營養豐富的水。
09:00
And with just a little bit
of clean, renewable energy,
of clean, renewable energy,
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只需要一點乾淨的，可再生能源，
09:03
you can pump that water up
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就可以把這些水向上抽，
09:04
and use the nutrients in it
to irrigate your seaweed crop.
to irrigate your seaweed crop.
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用水中的營養來灌溉海草作物。
09:09
So I think this really has
so many benefits.
so many benefits.
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我認為這有很多益處。
09:14
It's changing a biological desert,
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它將海洋中部的生物沙漠
09:18
the mid-ocean,
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改變成有生產力的，
甚至能拯救地球的解決方案。
甚至能拯救地球的解決方案。
09:19
into a productive, maybe even
planet-saving solution.
planet-saving solution.
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所以，這有可能出錯嗎？
09:25
So what could go wrong?
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09:26
Well, anything we're talking
about at this scale
about at this scale
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嗯，這種規模的任何事物，
09:30
involves a planetary-scale intervention.
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涉及到全球性規模的干預。
09:32
And we have to be very careful.
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我們得要非常小心。
09:34
I think that piles of stinking seaweed
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我認為，那些發臭的海草堆，
09:36
are probably going to be
the least of our problems.
the least of our problems.
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其實可能還算是最小的問題。
09:39
There's other unforeseen things
that will happen.
that will happen.
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有其他未預見的事情會發生。
每當談到這點，
我最擔心的其中一件事，
我最擔心的其中一件事，
09:41
One of the things that really worries me,
when I talk about this,
when I talk about this,
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就是深海生物多樣性的命運。
09:44
is the fate of biodiversity
in the deep ocean.
in the deep ocean.
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09:47
If we are putting gigatons of seaweed
into the deep ocean,
into the deep ocean,
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如果我們把數十億噸
海草丟入深海中，
海草丟入深海中，
09:50
we're affecting life down there.
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我們會影響到下面的生命。
09:51
The good news is that we know
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好消息是，我們知道
09:53
that a lot of seaweed
already reaches the deep ocean,
already reaches the deep ocean,
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在暴風雨之後，
很多海草已經沉到了深海中，
很多海草已經沉到了深海中，
09:56
after storms or through submarine canyons.
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或通過海底峽谷。
09:59
So we're not talking
about a novel process here;
about a novel process here;
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所以我們談的
這個過程並不是新的；
這個過程並不是新的；
10:02
we are talking about
enhancing a natural process.
enhancing a natural process.
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我們談的是增強大自然的過程。
10:07
And we'll learn as we go.
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我們會邊做邊學。
10:09
I mean, it may be that these ocean-going
seaweed farms will need to be mobile,
seaweed farms will need to be mobile,
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可能這些海洋裡的海草養殖場
必須要是活動式的，
必須要是活動式的，
10:13
to distribute the seaweed
across vast areas of the ocean,
across vast areas of the ocean,
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才能把海草分送到
廣大海洋的各處，
廣大海洋的各處，
10:16
rather than creating
a big stinking pile in one place.
a big stinking pile in one place.
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而不是在單一地點
創造出一個巨大的海草堆。
創造出一個巨大的海草堆。
10:19
It may be that we'll need
to char the seaweed --
to char the seaweed --
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我們可能會需要把海草燒焦——
10:23
so create a sort of an inert,
mineral biochar
mineral biochar
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以產生出一種惰性的礦物性生物炭，
10:26
before we dispatch it into the deep.
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然後再把它送到海洋深處。
10:28
We won't know until we start the process,
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在尚未開始這過程之前不會知道，
10:31
and we will learn effectively by doing.
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我們得要邊做邊學。
10:34
I just want to take you
to contemporary seaweed farming.
to contemporary seaweed farming.
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我只是想要帶大家看看
現代海草養殖。
現代海草養殖。
它是個大事業——
10:38
It's a big business --
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10:39
it's a six-billion-dollar-a-year business.
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每年六十億美金的事業。
10:41
These seaweed farms off South Korea --
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南韓近海的海草養殖場——
10:43
you can see them from space,
they are huge.
they are huge.
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它們很巨大，從太空中可以看見。
10:46
And they're increasingly
not just seaweed farms.
not just seaweed farms.
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漸漸地，它們不再
只是海草養殖場。
只是海草養殖場。
10:48
What people are doing in places like this
is something called ocean permaculture.
is something called ocean permaculture.
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人們在這些地方做的是永續栽培。
10:53
And in ocean permaculture,
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要做海洋永續栽培，
10:55
you grow fish, shellfish
and seaweed all together.
and seaweed all together.
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就要同時養殖魚類、
甲殼類，和海草。
甲殼類，和海草。
10:58
And the reason it works so well
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它能運作得這麼順利的原因
11:00
is that the seaweed
makes the seawater less acid.
makes the seawater less acid.
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是因為海草會讓海水的酸性下降。
11:04
It provides an ideal environment
for growing marine protein.
for growing marine protein.
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提供了一個理想的環境，
讓海中的蛋白質生長。
讓海中的蛋白質生長。
11:08
If we covered nine percent
of the world's oceans
of the world's oceans
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如果我們能把永續栽培
擴展到全球海洋的 9%，
擴展到全球海洋的 9%，
11:10
in ocean permaculture,
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11:12
we would be producing enough protein
in the form of fish and shellfish
in the form of fish and shellfish
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我們就能以魚類和甲殼類的形式，
產生出足夠的蛋白質，
產生出足夠的蛋白質，
11:16
to give every person
in a population of 10 billion
in a population of 10 billion
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每年供應每人兩百公斤的
高品質蛋白質
高品質蛋白質
11:20
200 kilograms of high-quality
protein per year.
protein per year.
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給一百億人口。
11:24
So, we've got a multipotent solution here.
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2047
所以，這個解決方案有多種用途。
11:26
We can address climate change,
we can feed the world,
we can feed the world,
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可以處理氣候變遷，
可以供應食物給世界，
可以供應食物給世界，
11:29
we can deacidify the oceans.
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可以減少海洋酸化。
11:32
The economics of all of this
is going to be challenging.
is going to be challenging.
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2638
這一切背後需要的經濟會很挑戰。
11:35
We'll be investing many,
many billions of dollars
many billions of dollars
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我們得要投資數十億美金
給這些解決方案，
給這些解決方案，
11:38
into these solutions,
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11:39
and they will take decades
to get to the gigaton scale.
to get to the gigaton scale.
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2926
還要花上數十年才能
達到十億噸的規模。
達到十億噸的規模。
11:42
The reason that I'm convinced
that this is going to happen
that this is going to happen
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我深信這個理想會成真，
11:46
is that unless we get the gas
out of the air,
out of the air,
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因為若我們不把溫室氣體
從空氣中除去，
從空氣中除去，
11:49
it is going to keep driving
adverse consequences.
adverse consequences.
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它將會一直促成不良的後果。
11:51
It will flood our cities,
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1825
我們的城市會被洪水淹沒，
11:53
it will deprive us of food,
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701725
1487
我們會喪失食物，
還會有各種內亂。
還會有各種內亂。
11:55
it will cause all sorts of civil unrest.
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11:58
So anyone who's got a solution
to dealing with this problem
to dealing with this problem
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706571
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所以，任何有解決方案
可以處理這個問題的人，
可以處理這個問題的人，
12:01
has a valuable asset.
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1400
就擁有珍貴的資產。
12:03
And already, as I've explained,
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2793
如我先前解釋的，
12:06
ocean permaculture is well on the road
to being economically sustainable.
to being economically sustainable.
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4827
海洋永續栽培已經
朝向經濟永續性邁進。
朝向經濟永續性邁進。
12:13
You know, in the next 30 years,
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1817
在接下來的三十年內，
12:14
we have to go from being
a carbon-emitting economy
a carbon-emitting economy
241
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4277
我們得要從排放碳的經濟
12:19
to a carbon-absorbing economy.
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2000
轉變為吸收碳的經濟。
12:21
And that doesn't seem like very long.
243
729861
2467
這時間並不長。
12:24
But half of the greenhouse gases
that we've put into the atmosphere,
that we've put into the atmosphere,
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3761
但，我們送入大氣中的溫室氣體，
有一半就是在過去三十年間放的。
12:28
we've put there in the last 30 years.
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2706
12:31
My argument is,
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1179
我的主張是，
12:32
if we can put the gas in in 30 years,
247
740834
2778
如果我們花三十年
把這些氣體送入大氣，
把這些氣體送入大氣，
12:35
we can pull it out in 30 years.
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2801
我們也能在三十年內將它們取出。
12:38
And if you doubt how much
can be done over 30 years,
can be done over 30 years,
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如果你懷疑三十年能做什麼，
12:41
just cast your mind back
a century, to 1919,
a century, to 1919,
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3564
就回想一下 1919 年，
12:44
compare it with 1950.
251
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1889
和 1950 年做比較。
12:46
Now, in 1919, here in Edinburgh,
252
754645
2526
1919 年，在愛丁堡，
12:49
you might have seen
a canvas and wood biplane.
a canvas and wood biplane.
253
757195
2998
你可能看到用帆布
和木頭做的雙翼飛機。
和木頭做的雙翼飛機。
12:52
Thirty years later,
you'd be seeing jet aircraft.
you'd be seeing jet aircraft.
254
760217
2412
三十年後，你看到噴射機。
12:55
Transport in the street
were horses in 1919.
were horses in 1919.
255
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1919 年，路上的交通工具是馬。
12:58
By 1950, they're motor vehicles.
256
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2699
1950 年，變成是汽車。
13:01
1919, we had gun powder;
257
769093
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1919 年，我們用火藥；
13:03
1950, we had nuclear power.
258
771300
2414
1950 年，我們有了核能。
13:06
We can do a lot in a short period of time.
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在這麼短的時間內，
我們能做的很多。
我們能做的很多。
13:08
But it all depends upon us believing
that we can find a solution.
that we can find a solution.
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但，這都要仰賴我們的信念，
相信我們能找到解決方案。
相信我們能找到解決方案。
13:13
Now what I would love to do
is bring together all of the people
is bring together all of the people
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我想要做的，
是集結所有對這方面有知識的人。
13:16
with knowledge in this space.
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13:19
The engineers who know
how to build structures offshore,
how to build structures offshore,
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知道如何在近海
建造結構的工程師、
建造結構的工程師、
13:22
the seaweed farmers, the financiers,
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海草養殖者、金融家、
13:24
the government regulators,
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政府管理者、
13:25
the people who understand
how things are done.
how things are done.
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知道怎麼做的人。
13:29
And chart a way forward,
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一同設計出向前走的路，如，
13:30
say: How do we go from the existing
six-billion-dollar-a-year,
six-billion-dollar-a-year,
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現有的海草產業規模
是每年六十億美金，
是每年六十億美金，
13:34
inshore seaweed industry,
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我們要如何把它轉變成
13:36
to this new form of industry,
which has got so much potential,
which has got so much potential,
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這種更有潛能的新形式產業，
13:40
but will require large
amounts of investment?
amounts of investment?
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但需要很大量的投資？
13:45
I'm not a betting man, you know.
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我不是愛打賭的人。
13:47
But if I were,
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但，如果是的話，告訴各位，
13:48
I'll tell you, my money
would be on that stuff,
would be on that stuff,
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我會把我的錢下注在海草上。
13:50
it would be on seaweed.
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13:52
It's my hero.
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海草是我的英雄。
13:53
Thank you.
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謝謝。
13:54
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tim Flannery - EnvironmentalistExplorer and professor Tim Flannery seeks to grasp the big picture of planetary evolution and how humans can affect it -- for better or for worse.
Why you should listen
A noted explorer who has published more than 140 peer-reviewed papers and named 25 living and 50 fossil mammal species, Tim Flannery has conducted research for more than 20 years in New Guinea and surrounding countries. He has served on the board of WWF International, the Australian Wildlife Conservancy, and as an advisor to the National Geographic Society. His books include The Future Eaters: An Ecological History of the Australasian Lands and People (which has been made into a three-part documentary series) and The Weather Makers: How Man Is Changing the Climate and What It Means for Life on Earth, which has been translated into more than 20 languages.
Flannery is the cofounder of the Australian Climate Council, which provides authoritative information, advice and solutions about climate change for ordinary citizens, and chair of the Ocean Forests Foundation. In 2007 he established and chaired the Copenhagen Climate Council, and in 2011 he was appointed Australia's first Climate Commissioner.
Tim Flannery | Speaker | TED.com