TED2010
Nicholas Christakis: The hidden influence of social networks
古樂朋 (Nicholas Christakis)：社会网络的潜在影响
Filmed:
Readability: 4.3
1,674,218 views
我们都身处在由朋友、家人、同事等所构建的庞大的社会网络之中。古樂朋追踪发现了一系列的特质──诸如快乐和肥胖──是如何从一个人传递到另一个人的，解释了你在社会网络中所处的地位是如何以你意想不到的方式影响着你的生活。
Nicholas Christakis - Physician, social scientist
Nicholas Christakis explores how the large-scale, face-to-face social networks in which we are embedded affect our lives, and what we can do to take advantage of this fact. Full bio
Nicholas Christakis explores how the large-scale, face-to-face social networks in which we are embedded affect our lives, and what we can do to take advantage of this fact. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
For me, this story begins about 15 years ago,
0
1000
3000
对于我来说，这个故事是15年前开始的。
00:19
when I was a hospice doctor at the University of Chicago.
1
4000
3000
当时我是芝加哥大学安养院的医生，
00:22
And I was taking care of people who were dying and their families
2
7000
3000
在芝加哥的南边地区
00:25
in the South Side of Chicago.
3
10000
2000
照顾临终的病人和他们的亲属。
00:27
And I was observing what happened to people and their families
4
12000
3000
我借此来观察疾病晚期
00:30
over the course of their terminal illness.
5
15000
3000
病人和家属所经历的一切。
00:33
And in my lab, I was studying the widower effect,
6
18000
2000
而在我的实验室里，我当时正在研究“寡妇效应”，
00:35
which is a very old idea in the social sciences,
7
20000
2000
是社会科学中非常古老的一个观点，
00:37
going back 150 years,
8
22000
2000
可追述到150年前，
00:39
known as "dying of a broken heart."
9
24000
2000
当时被称为是“心碎之死”。
00:41
So, when I die, my wife's risk of death can double,
10
26000
3000
举个例子来说，如果我去世的话，
00:44
for instance, in the first year.
11
29000
2000
我妻子在我逝世之后一年的死亡率会加倍。
00:46
And I had gone to take care of one particular patient,
12
31000
3000
我当时照料的病人中，有一位
00:49
a woman who was dying of dementia.
13
34000
2000
是正死于痴呆症的女士。
00:51
And in this case, unlike this couple,
14
36000
2000
和夫妻的例子不同的是，
00:53
she was being cared for
15
38000
2000
当时照顾这位女士的
00:55
by her daughter.
16
40000
2000
是她的女儿。
00:57
And the daughter was exhausted from caring for her mother.
17
42000
3000
这个女儿因为照顾老母而筋疲力竭，
01:00
And the daughter's husband,
18
45000
2000
而女儿的丈夫
01:02
he also was sick
19
47000
3000
也因为妻子的疲劳
01:05
from his wife's exhaustion.
20
50000
2000
而患上疾病。
01:07
And I was driving home one day,
21
52000
2000
有一天我正开车回家，
01:09
and I get a phone call from the husband's friend,
22
54000
3000
收到一通来自这个丈夫的朋友的电话，
01:12
calling me because he was depressed
23
57000
2000
原因是因为他为他朋友所经历的一切
01:14
about what was happening to his friend.
24
59000
2000
感到忧郁。
01:16
So here I get this call from this random guy
25
61000
2000
我就这样神奇地接到一个陌生人的电话，
01:18
that's having an experience
26
63000
2000
全因为他的经历
01:20
that's being influenced by people
27
65000
2000
受到了一些
01:22
at some social distance.
28
67000
2000
和他有一定“社会距离”的人的影响。
01:24
And so I suddenly realized two very simple things:
29
69000
3000
我也因此突然意识到了两件很简单的事情。
01:27
First, the widowhood effect
30
72000
2000
首先，是“寡妇效应”
01:29
was not restricted to husbands and wives.
31
74000
3000
不仅仅局限于丈夫和妻子之间。
01:32
And second, it was not restricted to pairs of people.
32
77000
3000
其二，它也不仅仅局限于两个人之间。
01:35
And I started to see the world
33
80000
2000
我开始以全新的视角
01:37
in a whole new way,
34
82000
2000
观察这个世界，
01:39
like pairs of people connected to each other.
35
84000
3000
将世界看成是成双成对联系在一起的人们。
01:42
And then I realized that these individuals
36
87000
2000
我随后又意识到这些人，如果俩俩相配，
01:44
would be connected into foursomes with other pairs of people nearby.
37
89000
3000
便会变成四人小组。
01:47
And then, in fact, these people
38
92000
2000
事实上，这些人
01:49
were embedded in other sorts of relationships:
39
94000
2000
都身处在其他各种人际关系中──
01:51
marriage and spousal
40
96000
2000
婚姻、伴侣、
01:53
and friendship and other sorts of ties.
41
98000
2000
友情、等等。
01:55
And that, in fact, these connections were vast
42
100000
3000
事实上，这些关联是如此之广泛，
01:58
and that we were all embedded in this
43
103000
2000
我们所有人都身处在这个广博的网络中，
02:00
broad set of connections with each other.
44
105000
3000
与彼此相连。
02:03
So I started to see the world in a completely new way
45
108000
3000
所以我开始以全新的角度看待这个世界，
02:06
and I became obsessed with this.
46
111000
2000
并沉迷其中。
02:08
I became obsessed with how it might be
47
113000
2000
我为我们是如何陷入这些社会网络中而着迷
02:10
that we're embedded in these social networks,
48
115000
2000
也为这些网络是如何影响我们的生活
02:12
and how they affect our lives.
49
117000
2000
而着迷。
02:14
So, social networks are these intricate things of beauty,
50
119000
3000
这些社会网络是错综的艺术之作，
02:17
and they're so elaborate and so complex
51
122000
2000
它们是如此的精致、如此复杂、
02:19
and so ubiquitous, in fact,
52
124000
2000
如此无所不在，使得我们不得不询问
02:21
that one has to ask what purpose they serve.
53
126000
3000
它们存在的意义是什么。
02:24
Why are we embedded in social networks?
54
129000
2000
我们为什么会身陷这些社会网络中？
02:26
I mean, how do they form? How do they operate?
55
131000
2000
它们是如何成立的？是如何工作的？
02:28
And how do they effect us?
56
133000
2000
它们是如何影响我们的？
02:30
So my first topic with respect to this,
57
135000
3000
而我据此的第一个研究课题，
02:33
was not death, but obesity.
58
138000
3000
不是死亡，而是肥胖症。
02:36
It had become trendy
59
141000
2000
突然间，讨论肥胖症的流行
02:38
to speak about the "obesity epidemic."
60
143000
2000
变成了一个热门的话题。
02:40
And, along with my collaborator, James Fowler,
61
145000
3000
我与我的同事James Fowler
02:43
we began to wonder whether obesity really was epidemic
62
148000
3000
开始研讨肥胖症是否真的是一种流行病，
02:46
and could it spread from person to person
63
151000
2000
是否可以从一个人传染到另一个人身上，
02:48
like the four people I discussed earlier.
64
153000
3000
就如我之前讨论的那四个人一样。
02:51
So this is a slide of some of our initial results.
65
156000
3000
这里看到的是我们的初步研究结果。
02:54
It's 2,200 people in the year 2000.
66
159000
3000
这是2000年接受研究的2200人。
02:57
Every dot is a person. We make the dot size
67
162000
2000
每个圆点代表着一个人。圆点的大小
02:59
proportional to people's body size;
68
164000
2000
和人的身形正比。
03:01
so bigger dots are bigger people.
69
166000
3000
所以大的圆点代表身形大的人。
03:04
In addition, if your body size,
70
169000
2000
除此之外，如果你的体重指数
03:06
if your BMI, your body mass index, is above 30 --
71
171000
2000
超过30的话，
03:08
if you're clinically obese --
72
173000
2000
如果你被诊断有肥胖症，
03:10
we also colored the dots yellow.
73
175000
2000
我们便把圆点涂成黄色。
03:12
So, if you look at this image, right away you might be able to see
74
177000
2000
如果你这么大略地看看这张图的话，
03:14
that there are clusters of obese and
75
179000
2000
你也许可以看到肥胖的人和非肥胖的人
03:16
non-obese people in the image.
76
181000
2000
有聚集的显现。
03:18
But the visual complexity is still very high.
77
183000
3000
但是这个视觉复杂性还是很高的，
03:21
It's not obvious exactly what's going on.
78
186000
3000
很难确切地说清其中的关联。
03:24
In addition, some questions are immediately raised:
79
189000
2000
如此之外，很多问题也立即产生。
03:26
How much clustering is there?
80
191000
2000
到底有多少聚集？
03:28
Is there more clustering than would be due to chance alone?
81
193000
3000
所产生的聚集是不是要比单纯的巧合下所产生的聚集要多？
03:31
How big are the clusters? How far do they reach?
82
196000
2000
聚集的大小是怎样？可以触及到多远？
03:33
And, most importantly,
83
198000
2000
最重要的是，
03:35
what causes the clusters?
84
200000
2000
聚集的原因是什么？
03:37
So we did some mathematics to study the size of these clusters.
85
202000
3000
所以我们用数学的办法研究了一下这些聚集的大小。
03:40
This here shows, on the Y-axis,
86
205000
2000
在这里可以看到，纵轴上代表的是
03:42
the increase in the probability that a person is obese
87
207000
3000
如果一个人的社会联系人中有人患有肥胖症的话，
03:45
given that a social contact of theirs is obese
88
210000
2000
那么这个人患有肥胖症的几率会增加多少；
03:47
and, on the X-axis, the degrees of separation between the two people.
89
212000
3000
横轴上代表的是，这两个人之间的分离指数。
03:50
On the far left, you see the purple line.
90
215000
2000
在最左端，你看到那条紫色线。
03:52
It says that, if your friends are obese,
91
217000
2000
它显示如果你的朋友们有肥胖症，
03:54
your risk of obesity is 45 percent higher.
92
219000
3000
你肥胖的可能性就会高出45%。
03:57
And the next bar over, the [red] line,
93
222000
2000
接下来的那条红色线
03:59
says if your friend's friends are obese,
94
224000
2000
现实如果你的朋友的朋友们有肥胖症，
04:01
your risk of obesity is 25 percent higher.
95
226000
2000
你患肥胖症的可能性就会高出25%。
04:03
And then the next line over says
96
228000
2000
下一条线显示
04:05
if your friend's friend's friend, someone you probably don't even know, is obese,
97
230000
3000
如果你朋友的朋友的朋友──你可能都不认识这个人──患有肥胖症的话，
04:08
your risk of obesity is 10 percent higher.
98
233000
3000
你患肥胖症的可能性就会高出10%。
04:11
And it's only when you get to your friend's friend's friend's friends
99
236000
3000
一直追溯到你朋友的朋友的朋友的朋友的时候，
04:14
that there's no longer a relationship
100
239000
2000
这层关系才会消失，
04:16
between that person's body size and your own body size.
101
241000
3000
这个人的身形和你的身形才不再会有关联。
04:20
Well, what might be causing this clustering?
102
245000
3000
所以，造成这种聚集的原因有哪些呢？
04:23
There are at least three possibilities:
103
248000
2000
至少有三种可能。
04:25
One possibility is that, as I gain weight,
104
250000
2000
第一种就是当我体重增加时，
04:27
it causes you to gain weight.
105
252000
2000
也导致了你的体重增加，
04:29
A kind of induction, a kind of spread from person to person.
106
254000
3000
类似电磁感应，由一个人传到另一个人。
04:32
Another possibility, very obvious, is homophily,
107
257000
2000
另一种可能，很显然，就是同类的聚合效应，
04:34
or, birds of a feather flock together;
108
259000
2000
物以类聚、人以群分。
04:36
here, I form my tie to you
109
261000
2000
我之所以和你建立关系
04:38
because you and I share a similar body size.
110
263000
3000
正是因为我们俩身形相似。
04:41
And the last possibility is what is known as confounding,
111
266000
2000
而最后一种可能，叫做混杂因素，
04:43
because it confounds our ability to figure out what's going on.
112
268000
3000
因为它模糊我们找到真正原因的能力。
04:46
And here, the idea is not that my weight gain
113
271000
2000
这意味着我的增肥
04:48
is causing your weight gain,
114
273000
2000
并没有直接导致你体重增加，
04:50
nor that I preferentially form a tie with you
115
275000
2000
我也不是因为咱俩身形相似
04:52
because you and I share the same body size,
116
277000
2000
才和你建立关系，
04:54
but rather that we share a common exposure
117
279000
2000
而是因为我们俩都接触到了相同的经历，
04:56
to something, like a health club
118
281000
3000
比如说健康俱乐部，
04:59
that makes us both lose weight at the same time.
119
284000
3000
导致我们俩同时减肥。
05:02
When we studied these data, we found evidence for all of these things,
120
287000
3000
而当我们进一步研究这些数据的时候，我们发现了支持这三种可能的证据，
05:05
including for induction.
121
290000
2000
包括磁场感应。
05:07
And we found that if your friend becomes obese,
122
292000
2000
我们发现如果你的朋友患有肥胖症，
05:09
it increases your risk of obesity by about 57 percent
123
294000
3000
你在同一时期，患肥胖症的可能性
05:12
in the same given time period.
124
297000
2000
会增加57%。
05:14
There can be many mechanisms for this effect:
125
299000
3000
造成这一现象的机理可以有很多。
05:17
One possibility is that your friends say to you something like --
126
302000
2000
一种可能是你的朋友对你说──
05:19
you know, they adopt a behavior that spreads to you --
127
304000
3000
他们的行为传染了你，
05:22
like, they say, "Let's go have muffins and beer,"
128
307000
3000
比如他们会说：“咱俩一起去吃点糕点，喝瓶啤酒吧。”，
05:25
which is a terrible combination. (Laughter)
129
310000
3000
致命的搭配
05:28
But you adopt that combination,
130
313000
2000
但你还是接受了这个搭配，
05:30
and then you start gaining weight like them.
131
315000
3000
你也开始和你朋友一般开始增肥。
05:33
Another more subtle possibility
132
318000
2000
另一个潜在的可能性
05:35
is that they start gaining weight, and it changes your ideas
133
320000
3000
是当他们开始增肥的时候，你对合理身形的概念
05:38
of what an acceptable body size is.
134
323000
2000
也随之发生了改变。
05:40
Here, what's spreading from person to person
135
325000
2000
在这种情况下，从一个人传到另一个人身上的
05:42
is not a behavior, but rather a norm:
136
327000
2000
不再是行为，而是准则。
05:44
An idea is spreading.
137
329000
2000
一个想法在得以蔓延。
05:46
Now, headline writers
138
331000
2000
一些新闻头条记者
05:48
had a field day with our studies.
139
333000
2000
借机盗用我们的研究。
05:50
I think the headline in The New York Times was,
140
335000
2000
我记得当时《纽约时报》的头条是
05:52
"Are you packing it on?
141
337000
2000
“你越来越肥吗？
05:54
Blame your fat friends." (Laughter)
142
339000
3000
怪罪你的那些肥朋友吧。”
05:57
What was interesting to us is that the European headline writers
143
342000
2000
我们觉得很有趣的是，欧洲的头条记者们
05:59
had a different take: They said,
144
344000
2000
对此有不同的理解，他们的头条是：
06:01
"Are your friends gaining weight? Perhaps you are to blame."
145
346000
3000
“你的朋友增肥了吗？也许你要自责一下。”
06:04
(Laughter)
146
349000
5000
（笑声）
06:09
And we thought this was a very interesting comment on America,
147
354000
3000
我们觉得这是对美国的一种很有趣的评论，
06:12
and a kind of self-serving,
148
357000
2000
一种事不关己、高高挂起，
06:14
"not my responsibility" kind of phenomenon.
149
359000
2000
明哲保身的现象。
06:16
Now, I want to be very clear: We do not think our work
150
361000
2000
在这里我要澄清一下，我们并不认为
06:18
should or could justify prejudice
151
363000
2000
我们的研究支持
06:20
against people of one or another body size at all.
152
365000
3000
对某一种身材的歧视。
06:24
Our next questions was:
153
369000
2000
我们的下一个问题是：
06:26
Could we actually visualize this spread?
154
371000
3000
我们能否在视觉上直接观看这种传染现象？
06:29
Was weight gain in one person actually spreading
155
374000
2000
体重的增加真的是从一个人身上
06:31
to weight gain in another person?
156
376000
2000
传到另一个人身上吗？
06:33
And this was complicated because
157
378000
2000
这就变得很复杂了
06:35
we needed to take into account the fact that the network structure,
158
380000
3000
因为我们要考虑到这个网络的结构、
06:38
the architecture of the ties, was changing across time.
159
383000
3000
关系之间的建筑构造，是随时都在变的。
06:41
In addition, because obesity is not a unicentric epidemic,
160
386000
3000
更何况，肥胖症并不是只有单一的中心的流行病，
06:44
there's not a Patient Zero of the obesity epidemic --
161
389000
3000
没有肥胖流行病的“零号病人”──
06:47
if we find that guy, there was a spread of obesity out from him --
162
392000
3000
如果找到这个人，那么肥胖症就是从他那边传出来的。
06:50
it's a multicentric epidemic.
163
395000
2000
但相反，肥胖病的流行有多个中心，
06:52
Lots of people are doing things at the same time.
164
397000
2000
多个人都在同时做着同样的事情。
06:54
And I'm about to show you a 30 second video animation
165
399000
3000
我将向你们展示一段30秒钟的视频演示，
06:57
that took me and James five years of our lives to do.
166
402000
3000
是花了我和James五年的人生才做好的。
07:00
So, again, every dot is a person.
167
405000
2000
同样的，每个圆点都是一个人。
07:02
Every tie between them is a relationship.
168
407000
2000
每条连线都代表着某种人际关系。
07:04
We're going to put this into motion now,
169
409000
2000
我们先在就要让它动起来，
07:06
taking daily cuts through the network for about 30 years.
170
411000
3000
在30年间对这个网络进行每天的切割。
07:09
The dot sizes are going to grow,
171
414000
2000
圆点变得越来越大，
07:11
you're going to see a sea of yellow take over.
172
416000
3000
你将看到一整片黄色的侵略，
07:14
You're going to see people be born and die --
173
419000
2000
也会看到人的出生与死亡，
07:16
dots will appear and disappear --
174
421000
2000
圆点将会出现、又消逝。
07:18
ties will form and break, marriages and divorces,
175
423000
3000
人际关系成立又瓦解。婚姻与离异，
07:21
friendings and defriendings.
176
426000
2000
友情与断交，
07:23
A lot of complexity, a lot is happening
177
428000
2000
非常复杂，在短短30年间
07:25
just in this 30-year period
178
430000
2000
很多事情在发生，
07:27
that includes the obesity epidemic.
179
432000
2000
包括了肥胖的流行。
07:29
And, by the end, you're going to see clusters
180
434000
2000
在结尾处，你们将会看到
07:31
of obese and non-obese individuals
181
436000
2000
肥胖者和非肥胖者在这个网络中
07:33
within the network.
182
438000
2000
出现扎堆的现象。
07:35
Now, when looked at this,
183
440000
3000
通过这个演示，
07:38
it changed the way I see things,
184
443000
3000
我看待事物的方式得以改变，
07:41
because this thing, this network
185
446000
2000
因为这个网络，
07:43
that's changing across time,
186
448000
2000
这个随时间而变换的网络，
07:45
it has a memory, it moves,
187
450000
3000
是有记忆的，它移动着，
07:48
things flow within it,
188
453000
2000
其中的事物随其所动，
07:50
it has a kind of consistency --
189
455000
2000
它拥有着一种持久性；
07:52
people can die, but it doesn't die;
190
457000
2000
其中的人也许死去，但它去不会死去；
07:54
it still persists --
191
459000
2000
它仍旧持续着。
07:56
and it has a kind of resilience
192
461000
2000
它有着一种坚韧性，
07:58
that allows it to persist across time.
193
463000
2000
允许它恒久不变。
08:00
And so, I came to see these kinds of social networks
194
465000
3000
所以我开始将这些社会网络的所散发信号
08:03
as living things,
195
468000
2000
看作是活着的事物，
08:05
as living things that we could put under a kind of microscope
196
470000
3000
可以放到显微镜下来
08:08
to study and analyze and understand.
197
473000
3000
研究、分析、理解。
08:11
And we used a variety of techniques to do this.
198
476000
2000
我们用各种各样的技术来做到这一点。
08:13
And we started exploring all kinds of other phenomena.
199
478000
3000
我们开始研究其他的各种现象。
08:16
We looked at smoking and drinking behavior,
200
481000
2000
我们查看了吸烟和喝酒行为，
08:18
and voting behavior,
201
483000
2000
投票行为，
08:20
and divorce -- which can spread --
202
485000
2000
离婚──也是可以传染的，
08:22
and altruism.
203
487000
2000
还有自闭症。
08:24
And, eventually, we became interested in emotions.
204
489000
3000
最终，我们对情感产生了兴趣。
08:28
Now, when we have emotions,
205
493000
2000
当我们有情感的时候，
08:30
we show them.
206
495000
2000
我们会将它们呈现出来。
08:32
Why do we show our emotions?
207
497000
2000
我们为什么要展示我们的情感呢？
08:34
I mean, there would be an advantage to experiencing
208
499000
2000
内在地感受情感，比如快乐与愤怒，
08:36
our emotions inside, you know, anger or happiness.
209
501000
3000
当然是有其好处，
08:39
But we don't just experience them, we show them.
210
504000
2000
但我们不单单是感受它们，我们也展示它们。
08:41
And not only do we show them, but others can read them.
211
506000
3000
我们不仅仅展示它们，其他人也可以阅读它们。
08:44
And, not only can they read them, but they copy them.
212
509000
2000
其他人不仅仅可以阅读它们，他们也可以复制它们。
08:46
There's emotional contagion
213
511000
2000
在人类社群中，就有着
08:48
that takes place in human populations.
214
513000
3000
情感的传染。
08:51
And so this function of emotions
215
516000
2000
情感的这一功能
08:53
suggests that, in addition to any other purpose they serve,
216
518000
2000
就表示除了其他的作用之外，
08:55
they're a kind of primitive form of communication.
217
520000
3000
情感也是一种原始的表达方式。
08:58
And that, in fact, if we really want to understand human emotions,
218
523000
3000
事实上，如果我们想真正地了解人类的情感，
09:01
we need to think about them in this way.
219
526000
2000
就要以这种方式来思考它们。
09:03
Now, we're accustomed to thinking about emotions in this way,
220
528000
3000
我们已经习惯了在简单、简短的时间段内
09:06
in simple, sort of, brief periods of time.
221
531000
3000
来考虑情感。
09:09
So, for example,
222
534000
2000
打个比方来说，
09:11
I was giving this talk recently in New York City,
223
536000
2000
我最近在纽约市演讲，
09:13
and I said, "You know when you're on the subway
224
538000
2000
其中说到：“当你在地铁上，
09:15
and the other person across the subway car
225
540000
2000
车厢对面的人
09:17
smiles at you,
226
542000
2000
向你微笑时，
09:19
and you just instinctively smile back?"
227
544000
2000
你会下意识地回报以微笑。”
09:21
And they looked at me and said, "We don't do that in New York City." (Laughter)
228
546000
3000
他们看着我，说到：“我们纽约人才不会做那种事情。”
09:24
And I said, "Everywhere else in the world,
229
549000
2000
我说：“世界上其他地方的人都会做，
09:26
that's normal human behavior."
230
551000
2000
是人之常理。”
09:28
And so there's a very instinctive way
231
553000
2000
所以我们有一种很本能的方式
09:30
in which we briefly transmit emotions to each other.
232
555000
3000
在短时间内把情感传递给彼此。
09:33
And, in fact, emotional contagion can be broader still.
233
558000
3000
事实上，情感的传染可以更广阔一些，
09:36
Like we could have punctuated expressions of anger,
234
561000
3000
比如在暴乱中，我们会加强
09:39
as in riots.
235
564000
2000
愤怒的表情。
09:41
The question that we wanted to ask was:
236
566000
2000
我们想要问的问题是：
09:43
Could emotion spread,
237
568000
2000
情感的传递能否超越
09:45
in a more sustained way than riots, across time
238
570000
3000
地铁车厢上相互微笑的一小部分人，
09:48
and involve large numbers of people,
239
573000
2000
而是以比暴乱更持久的方式，长时间地
09:50
not just this pair of individuals smiling at each other in the subway car?
240
575000
3000
在更多人之间传播？
09:53
Maybe there's a kind of below the surface, quiet riot
241
578000
3000
也许我们平静的表面下都蕴藏着某种
09:56
that animates us all the time.
242
581000
2000
时刻激荡着我们的某种暴乱。
09:58
Maybe there are emotional stampedes
243
583000
2000
也许有某种情感蜂拥
10:00
that ripple through social networks.
244
585000
2000
在社会网络中溅起涟漪。
10:02
Maybe, in fact, emotions have a collective existence,
245
587000
3000
也许事实上，情感是有一种共有的存在性，
10:05
not just an individual existence.
246
590000
2000
不单单是个人的存在性。
10:07
And this is one of the first images we made to study this phenomenon.
247
592000
3000
这是我们用来研究这一现象所做出的早期图象之一。
10:10
Again, a social network,
248
595000
2000
同样是一个社会网络，
10:12
but now we color the people yellow if they're happy
249
597000
3000
不过这一次我们把快乐的人涂成了黄色，
10:15
and blue if they're sad and green in between.
250
600000
3000
难过的人涂成了蓝色，介于两者之间的人涂成了绿色。
10:18
And if you look at this image, you can right away see
251
603000
2000
如果你看看这幅图片，你立马就能看到
10:20
clusters of happy and unhappy people,
252
605000
2000
快乐的人和不快乐的人扎堆出现，
10:22
again, spreading to three degrees of separation.
253
607000
2000
同样地是传递到三层分离关系。
10:24
And you might form the intuition
254
609000
2000
你的直觉也许会告诉你
10:26
that the unhappy people
255
611000
2000
不快乐的人
10:28
occupy a different structural location within the network.
256
613000
3000
在这个网络中占据着一个不同的结构点。
10:31
There's a middle and an edge to this network,
257
616000
2000
这个网络有个中心部分、有个边缘地带，
10:33
and the unhappy people seem to be
258
618000
2000
而不快乐的人好像都集中在
10:35
located at the edges.
259
620000
2000
边缘地带。
10:37
So to invoke another metaphor,
260
622000
2000
再打个比方，
10:39
if you imagine social networks as a kind of
261
624000
2000
如果你把这些社区网络想象成是
10:41
vast fabric of humanity --
262
626000
2000
一大块人类的绸缎──
10:43
I'm connected to you and you to her, on out endlessly into the distance --
263
628000
3000
我与你相连，你和她相连，无止境地延伸──
10:46
this fabric is actually like
264
631000
2000
这块绸缎就好像是
10:48
an old-fashioned American quilt,
265
633000
2000
美国老实的被子一样，
10:50
and it has patches on it: happy and unhappy patches.
266
635000
3000
上面是一块块的补丁，有快乐的补丁，也有不快乐的。
10:53
And whether you become happy or not
267
638000
2000
而你快乐与否
10:55
depends in part on whether you occupy a happy patch.
268
640000
3000
就决定于你是否身处一块快乐补丁上。
10:58
(Laughter)
269
643000
2000
（笑声）
11:00
So, this work with emotions,
270
645000
3000
所以像情感这种如此基础的东西
11:03
which are so fundamental,
271
648000
2000
都能按此来工作，
11:05
then got us to thinking about: Maybe
272
650000
2000
我们不得不猜想，
11:07
the fundamental causes of human social networks
273
652000
2000
也许社会网路的基本原因
11:09
are somehow encoded in our genes.
274
654000
2000
是写在我们的基因中的。
11:11
Because human social networks, whenever they are mapped,
275
656000
3000
因为人类的社会网络，每当构造起来的时候，
11:14
always kind of look like this:
276
659000
2000
总是会和这个网络的图片
11:16
the picture of the network.
277
661000
2000
很相似，
11:18
But they never look like this.
278
663000
2000
但它们却从来不会是这个样子的？
11:20
Why do they not look like this?
279
665000
2000
它们为什么不是这个样子的呢？
11:22
Why don't we form human social networks
280
667000
2000
为什么我们不组成一个个有规则的格子框架的
11:24
that look like a regular lattice?
281
669000
2000
社会网络呢？
11:26
Well, the striking patterns of human social networks,
282
671000
3000
人类社会网络惊人的样貌、
11:29
their ubiquity and their apparent purpose
283
674000
3000
其无所不在的特性和它们显而易见的功能，
11:32
beg questions about whether we evolved to have
284
677000
2000
让我们猜想社会网络是否是我们
11:34
human social networks in the first place,
285
679000
2000
进化的产物，
11:36
and whether we evolved to form networks
286
681000
2000
而我们又是否进化出具有某种特殊结构的
11:38
with a particular structure.
287
683000
2000
社会网络。
11:40
And notice first of all -- so, to understand this, though,
288
685000
2000
首先注意...要想搞懂这一切
11:42
we need to dissect network structure a little bit first --
289
687000
3000
我们必须先把这个网络结构分解一下，
11:45
and notice that every person in this network
290
690000
2000
注意到每个人在这个网络中的结构点
11:47
has exactly the same structural location as every other person.
291
692000
3000
和另外的每个人都是一样的。
11:50
But that's not the case with real networks.
292
695000
3000
但在真实的网络中，却不是这个样子的。
11:53
So, for example, here is a real network of college students
293
698000
2000
好比说，这是东北部一所顶尖大学内
11:55
at an elite northeastern university.
294
700000
3000
大学生之间的真实网络图。
11:58
And now I'm highlighting a few dots.
295
703000
2000
我这里着重挑选了几个圆点，
12:00
If you look here at the dots,
296
705000
2000
如果你仔细看看这些圆点，
12:02
compare node B in the upper left
297
707000
2000
把左上角的点B
12:04
to node D in the far right;
298
709000
2000
和最右边的点D做比较。
12:06
B has four friends coming out from him
299
711000
2000
B有四个朋友从他那里延伸出来，
12:08
and D has six friends coming out from him.
300
713000
3000
D则是有六个朋友。
12:11
And so, those two individuals have different numbers of friends.
301
716000
3000
所以这两个人的朋友数量有所不同──
12:14
That's very obvious, we all know that.
302
719000
2000
这是显而易见的，我们都知道。
12:16
But certain other aspects
303
721000
2000
但社会网络结构中的其他方面
12:18
of social network structure are not so obvious.
304
723000
2000
就没有这么明显了。
12:20
Compare node B in the upper left to node A in the lower left.
305
725000
3000
把左上角的点B和左下角的点A做比较。
12:23
Now, those people both have four friends,
306
728000
3000
他俩都有四个朋友，
12:26
but A's friends all know each other,
307
731000
2000
但是A的朋友们彼此相知，
12:28
and B's friends do not.
308
733000
2000
B的朋友们却不是。
12:30
So the friend of a friend of A's
309
735000
2000
所以A的一个朋友的朋友
12:32
is, back again, a friend of A's,
310
737000
2000
反过来还是A的朋友，
12:34
whereas the friend of a friend of B's is not a friend of B's,
311
739000
2000
而B的一个朋友的朋友倒不一定是B的朋友，
12:36
but is farther away in the network.
312
741000
2000
而是在网络中的更远处。
12:38
This is known as transitivity in networks.
313
743000
3000
这就是网络中的可传递性。
12:41
And, finally, compare nodes C and D:
314
746000
2000
最后再来比较点C和点D，
12:43
C and D both have six friends.
315
748000
3000
两者都有六个朋友，
12:46
If you talk to them, and you said, "What is your social life like?"
316
751000
3000
如果你问他们：“你的社交生活怎样？”
12:49
they would say, "I've got six friends.
317
754000
2000
他们会说：“我有六个朋友。
12:51
That's my social experience."
318
756000
2000
这就是我的社交经历。”
12:53
But now we, with a bird's eye view looking at this network,
319
758000
3000
但我们来鸟瞰这个网络，
12:56
can see that they occupy very different social worlds.
320
761000
3000
我们就会发现他们的社交圈是完全不同的。
12:59
And I can cultivate that intuition in you by just asking you:
321
764000
2000
接下来的这个问题就可以培养你这方面的直觉：
13:01
Who would you rather be
322
766000
2000
如果一种致命的病毒在这个网络里得以扩散，
13:03
if a deadly germ was spreading through the network?
323
768000
2000
你希望你是其中的哪一位？
13:05
Would you rather be C or D?
324
770000
3000
你是想当C还是想当D？
13:08
You'd rather be D, on the edge of the network.
325
773000
2000
你当然是想当D，处在网络的边缘。
13:10
And now who would you rather be
326
775000
2000
如果一条跟你无关的八卦新闻
13:12
if a juicy piece of gossip -- not about you --
327
777000
3000
在这个网络里散播，
13:15
was spreading through the network? (Laughter)
328
780000
2000
你又会想当谁呢？
13:17
Now, you would rather be C.
329
782000
2000
这次你会想当C。
13:19
So different structural locations
330
784000
2000
所以不同的结构点
13:21
have different implications for your life.
331
786000
2000
对你的人生有着不同的影响。
13:23
And, in fact, when we did some experiments looking at this,
332
788000
3000
事实上，我们的实验结果表明
13:26
what we found is that 46 percent of the variation
333
791000
3000
朋友数量的差异
13:29
in how many friends you have
334
794000
2000
有46%都是可以通过基因
13:31
is explained by your genes.
335
796000
2000
得以解释。
13:33
And this is not surprising. We know that some people are born shy
336
798000
3000
这并不奇怪。因为我们知道，有的人生来腼腆，
13:36
and some are born gregarious. That's obvious.
337
801000
3000
有的人生来合群。这是显而易见的。
13:39
But we also found some non-obvious things.
338
804000
2000
但我们也发现了一些不是那么明显的东西。
13:41
For instance, 47 percent in the variation
339
806000
3000
比如，你的朋友们是否认识彼此
13:44
in whether your friends know each other
340
809000
2000
其中47%的差异
13:46
is attributable to your genes.
341
811000
2000
都是和你的基因有关。
13:48
Whether your friends know each other
342
813000
2000
你的朋友们是否认识彼此
13:50
has not just to do with their genes, but with yours.
343
815000
3000
不仅仅和他们自己的基因有关，也和你的基因有关。
13:53
And we think the reason for this is that some people
344
818000
2000
我们认为其中的原因就在于有的人
13:55
like to introduce their friends to each other -- you know who you are --
345
820000
3000
喜欢把自己的朋友介绍给彼此──没错，说的就是你──
13:58
and others of you keep them apart and don't introduce your friends to each other.
346
823000
3000
而其他人喜欢把朋友们分开，不喜欢介绍给彼此。
14:01
And so some people knit together the networks around them,
347
826000
3000
所以有些人将他们身边的网络们编织在一起，
14:04
creating a kind of dense web of ties
348
829000
2000
构成了紧密相联的深层网络，
14:06
in which they're comfortably embedded.
349
831000
2000
而他们则是舒服地身处其中。
14:08
And finally, we even found that
350
833000
2000
最后，我们甚至发现
14:10
30 percent of the variation
351
835000
2000
人们是身处网络中心还是边缘
14:12
in whether or not people are in the middle or on the edge of the network
352
837000
3000
30%的差异
14:15
can also be attributed to their genes.
353
840000
2000
也是和他们的基因相关。
14:17
So whether you find yourself in the middle or on the edge
354
842000
2000
所以你是在中心还是边缘，
14:19
is also partially heritable.
355
844000
3000
有一部分是遗传的。
14:22
Now, what is the point of this?
356
847000
3000
说这一起的目的是什么呢？
14:25
How does this help us understand?
357
850000
2000
如何加深我们的理解？
14:27
How does this help us
358
852000
2000
如何帮助我们
14:29
figure out some of the problems that are affecting us these days?
359
854000
3000
解决现今与我们生活息息相关的各种问题呢？
14:33
Well, the argument I'd like to make is that networks have value.
360
858000
3000
我的论点是这些社会网络充满价值。
14:36
They are a kind of social capital.
361
861000
3000
他们好比一种社交资产。
14:39
New properties emerge
362
864000
2000
由于我们身陷其中，
14:41
because of our embeddedness in social networks,
363
866000
2000
新的网络属性会出现，
14:43
and these properties inhere
364
868000
3000
而这些属性是继承在
14:46
in the structure of the networks,
365
871000
2000
网络的结构之中，
14:48
not just in the individuals within them.
366
873000
2000
不仅仅是在网络中的个人身上。
14:50
So think about these two common objects.
367
875000
2000
所以想想这两个日常用品，
14:52
They're both made of carbon,
368
877000
2000
他们都是由碳做成的，
14:54
and yet one of them has carbon atoms in it
369
879000
3000
不过其中的一个是由碳原子以独特的方式
14:57
that are arranged in one particular way -- on the left --
370
882000
3000
组合而成的，形成了左手边的石墨，
15:00
and you get graphite, which is soft and dark.
371
885000
3000
柔软和漆黑。
15:03
But if you take the same carbon atoms
372
888000
2000
但如果你将相同的碳原子
15:05
and interconnect them a different way,
373
890000
2000
以不同的方式关联到一起，
15:07
you get diamond, which is clear and hard.
374
892000
3000
就会得到钻石，透彻而坚硬。
15:10
And those properties of softness and hardness and darkness and clearness
375
895000
3000
而这些柔软、坚硬、漆黑和透彻的属性
15:13
do not reside in the carbon atoms;
376
898000
2000
并不是存在于碳原子本身中。
15:15
they reside in the interconnections between the carbon atoms,
377
900000
3000
而是存在于碳原子之间的联系中，
15:18
or at least arise because of the
378
903000
2000
或者至少是由于这些联系
15:20
interconnections between the carbon atoms.
379
905000
2000
所造成的。
15:22
So, similarly, the pattern of connections among people
380
907000
3000
同样的，人与人之间的关联形态
15:25
confers upon the groups of people
381
910000
3000
也是赋予了各组群
15:28
different properties.
382
913000
2000
不同的属性。
15:30
It is the ties between people
383
915000
2000
正是人与人之间的关联
15:32
that makes the whole greater than the sum of its parts.
384
917000
3000
使得这个世界要比单单各部分的总和伟大许多。
15:35
And so it is not just what's happening to these people --
385
920000
3000
所以不仅仅是这些人所经历的事情──
15:38
whether they're losing weight or gaining weight, or becoming rich or becoming poor,
386
923000
3000
他们在减肥还是在增肥，在变富还是在变穷，
15:41
or becoming happy or not becoming happy -- that affects us;
387
926000
3000
在快乐还是在不快乐──影响着我们；
15:44
it's also the actual architecture
388
929000
2000
同时影响我们的
15:46
of the ties around us.
389
931000
2000
还有我们彼此关系所组成的实质结构。
15:48
Our experience of the world
390
933000
2000
我们在这个世界的经历
15:50
depends on the actual structure
391
935000
2000
取决于我们所处网络的
15:52
of the networks in which we're residing
392
937000
2000
实质结构，
15:54
and on all the kinds of things that ripple and flow
393
939000
3000
以及激荡和流动于这个网络中的
15:57
through the network.
394
942000
2000
各种事物。
16:00
Now, the reason, I think, that this is the case
395
945000
3000
我认为，其原因就在于
16:03
is that human beings assemble themselves
396
948000
2000
人类可以组织在一起
16:05
and form a kind of superorganism.
397
950000
3000
组成一个“超级生物体”。
16:09
Now, a superorganism is a collection of individuals
398
954000
3000
这个“超级生物体”就好像是每个个体的集合，
16:12
which show or evince behaviors or phenomena
399
957000
3000
展示或标注某些无法在个体层面上研究的
16:15
that are not reducible to the study of individuals
400
960000
3000
行为和现象，
16:18
and that must be understood by reference to,
401
963000
2000
是只能通过对整体的探讨和研究
16:20
and by studying, the collective.
402
965000
2000
来获得了解，
16:22
Like, for example, a hive of bees
403
967000
3000
就好比一窝
16:25
that's finding a new nesting site,
404
970000
3000
寻找新的筑巢之地的蜜蜂；
16:28
or a flock of birds that's evading a predator,
405
973000
2000
又好比是一个躲避捕食者的鸟群；
16:30
or a flock of birds that's able to pool its wisdom
406
975000
3000
或是可以集中智慧、
16:33
and navigate and find a tiny speck
407
978000
2000
辨清方向、找到太平洋之中飘荡小岛的
16:35
of an island in the middle of the Pacific,
408
980000
2000
鸟群；
16:37
or a pack of wolves that's able
409
982000
2000
抑或是可以捕捉巨大猎物的
16:39
to bring down larger prey.
410
984000
3000
狼群。
16:42
Superorganisms have properties
411
987000
2000
超级生物体的特性
16:44
that cannot be understood just by studying the individuals.
412
989000
3000
是无法通过对个体的研究得以完全理解的。
16:47
I think understanding social networks
413
992000
2000
我认为通过对社会网络的理解，
16:49
and how they form and operate
414
994000
2000
研究它们是如何构成和运行的，
16:51
can help us understand not just health and emotions
415
996000
3000
能够帮助我们了解不仅仅是健康和情感，
16:54
but all kinds of other phenomena --
416
999000
2000
还有许多其他的各种现象
16:56
like crime, and warfare,
417
1001000
2000
比如犯罪和福利
16:58
and economic phenomena like bank runs
418
1003000
2000
以及经济现象比如银行挤兑
17:00
and market crashes
419
1005000
2000
和市场崩盘，
17:02
and the adoption of innovation
420
1007000
2000
再有就是新技术的引用
17:04
and the spread of product adoption.
421
1009000
2000
以及产品使用的扩展。
17:06
Now, look at this.
422
1011000
2000
看看这个。
17:09
I think we form social networks
423
1014000
2000
我认为我们组建社会网络的原因
17:11
because the benefits of a connected life
424
1016000
2000
是因为一个与人相连的生活模式
17:13
outweigh the costs.
425
1018000
3000
要利大于弊。
17:16
If I was always violent towards you
426
1021000
2000
如果我总是对你很暴力
17:18
or gave you misinformation
427
1023000
2000
给你错误的信息
17:20
or made you sad or infected you with deadly germs,
428
1025000
3000
或是使你难过，或是让你染上致命的疾病，
17:23
you would cut the ties to me,
429
1028000
2000
你就会和我断交，
17:25
and the network would disintegrate.
430
1030000
2000
这个网络也就会瓦解。
17:27
So the spread of good and valuable things
431
1032000
3000
所以好的、有价值的事物的传播
17:30
is required to sustain and nourish social networks.
432
1035000
3000
是维持、滋润社会网络的必要条件。
17:34
Similarly, social networks are required
433
1039000
2000
同样的，社会网络也是传播这些好的、
17:36
for the spread of good and valuable things,
434
1041000
3000
有价值的事物的必要条件，
17:39
like love and kindness
435
1044000
2000
比如关爱与慈悲，
17:41
and happiness and altruism
436
1046000
2000
快乐和博爱，
17:43
and ideas.
437
1048000
2000
以及想法。
17:45
I think, in fact, that if we realized
438
1050000
2000
我认为，事实上，如果我们可以意识到
17:47
how valuable social networks are,
439
1052000
2000
社会网络的价值所在，
17:49
we'd spend a lot more time nourishing them and sustaining them,
440
1054000
3000
我们将会花费更多的时间来滋养、维持它们，
17:52
because I think social networks
441
1057000
2000
因为我认为社会网络在本质上
17:54
are fundamentally related to goodness.
442
1059000
3000
是与美好相连的，
17:57
And what I think the world needs now
443
1062000
2000
而我认为我们这个世界上所需要的
17:59
is more connections.
444
1064000
2000
正是更多的关联。
18:01
Thank you.
445
1066000
2000
谢谢大家。
18:03
(Applause)
446
1068000
3000
（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Nicholas Christakis - Physician, social scientistNicholas Christakis explores how the large-scale, face-to-face social networks in which we are embedded affect our lives, and what we can do to take advantage of this fact.
Why you should listen
People aren't merely social animals in the usual sense, for we don't just live in groups. We live in networks -- and we have done so ever since we emerged from the African savannah. Via intricately branching paths tracing out cascading family connections, friendship ties, and work relationships, we are interconnected to hundreds or even thousands of specific people, most of whom we do not know. We affect them and they affect us.
Nicholas Christakis' work examines the biological, psychological, sociological, and mathematical rules that govern how we form these social networks, and the rules that govern how they shape our lives. His work shows how phenomena as diverse as obesity, smoking, emotions, ideas, germs, and altruism can spread through our social ties, and how genes can partially underlie our creation of social ties to begin with. His work also sheds light on how we might take advantage of an understanding of social networks to make the world a better place.
At Yale, Christakis is a Professor of Social and Natural Science, and he directs a diverse research group in the field of biosocial science, primarily investigating social networks. His popular undergraduate course "Health of the Public" is available as a podcast. His book, Connected, co-authored with James H. Fowler, appeared in 2009, and has been translated into 20 languages. In 2009, he was named by Time magazine to its annual list of the 100 most influential people in the world, and also, in 2009 and 2010, by Foreign Policy magazine to its list of 100 top global thinkers
Nicholas Christakis | Speaker | TED.com