TEDGlobal 2005
Nick Bostrom: A philosophical quest for our biggest problems
Nick Bostrom 探討人類三大問題
Filmed:
Readability: 4.2
967,767 views
牛津哲學家，超人類主義者 Nick Bostrom 檢視人的未來，探討我們是否可能藉改變人類本質，以解決人類面臨的最本源的問題。
Nick Bostrom - Philosopher
Nick Bostrom asks big questions: What should we do, as individuals and as a species, to optimize our long-term prospects? Will humanity’s technological advancements ultimately destroy us? Full bio
Nick Bostrom asks big questions: What should we do, as individuals and as a species, to optimize our long-term prospects? Will humanity’s technological advancements ultimately destroy us? Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:24
I want to talk today about --
0
0
3000
今天我想談論的是
00:27
I've been asked to take the long view, and I'm going to tell you what
1
3000
6000
主辦單位要求我就長期觀點， 和各位分享
00:33
I think are the three biggest problems for humanity
2
9000
4000
三個我認為和人類有關 最重大的問題
00:37
from this long point of view.
3
13000
3000
就長期的觀點來觀察
00:40
Some of these have already been touched upon by other speakers,
4
16000
3000
其他講者曾探討了其中的一些問題
00:43
which is encouraging.
5
19000
2000
令我非常鼓舞
00:45
It seems that there's not just one person
6
21000
2000
看來我似乎不是唯一
00:47
who thinks that these problems are important.
7
23000
2000
認為這些議題很重要的人
00:49
The first is -- death is a big problem.
8
25000
4000
第一個問題： 死亡， 可是個大問題
00:53
If you look at the statistics,
9
29000
3000
統計數字顯示
00:56
the odds are not very favorable to us.
10
32000
2000
情況對人類不大有利
00:58
So far, most people who have lived have also died.
11
34000
4000
到目前為止 大多數活過的人最終都死亡
01:02
Roughly 90 percent of everybody who has been alive has died by now.
12
38000
4000
世界上所有活過的人 到現在差不多九成都已過世
01:06
So the annual death rate adds up to 150,000 --
13
42000
6000
算起來 大約每年有15萬人死亡
01:12
sorry, the daily death rate -- 150,000 people per day,
14
48000
3000
抱歉！ 是每天有15萬人死亡
01:15
which is a huge number by any standard.
15
51000
3000
以任何標準來看 都是一個大數目
01:18
The annual death rate, then, becomes 56 million.
16
54000
5000
以年計，就是每年5千6百萬人死亡
01:23
If we just look at the single, biggest cause of death -- aging --
17
59000
5000
就單一最大的死因 - 年老 來看
01:29
it accounts for roughly two-thirds of all human people who die.
18
65000
5000
大約就占所有死因的三分之二
01:34
That adds up to an annual death toll
19
70000
3000
每年因之而死的人口總數
01:37
of greater than the population of Canada.
20
73000
2000
比加拿大的所有人口還要多
01:39
Sometimes, we don't see a problem
21
75000
2000
有時,我們不認為這有什麼問題
01:41
because either it's too familiar or it's too big.
22
77000
4000
因為死亡實在是太熟悉了 要不就是太大了
01:45
Can't see it because it's too big.
23
81000
2000
死亡影響太大 反而蒙蔽了我們，讓我們視而不見
01:47
I think death might be both too familiar and too big
24
83000
3000
我想死亡可能就是因為既平常，影響又大
01:50
for most people to see it as a problem.
25
86000
3000
反而大部分的人都不覺得它是問題
01:53
Once you think about it, you see this is not statistical points;
26
89000
2000
但只要細想一下，你就會留意到這不僅是幾個統計數字
01:55
these are -- let's see, how far have I talked?
27
91000
2000
這些是 － 等等，我已經在台上講了多久?
01:57
I've talked for three minutes.
28
93000
3000
我已經講了三分鐘
02:00
So that would be, roughly, 324 people have died since I've begun speaking.
29
96000
7000
所以，從我開始說話到現在大概有324人已經死亡
02:07
People like -- it's roughly the population in this room has just died.
30
103000
4000
可以說，有跟現在這間演講廳內一樣多的人 已經死了
02:12
Now, the human cost of that is obvious,
31
108000
2000
以人的角度來看，代價其實很明顯
02:14
once you start to think about it -- the suffering, the loss --
32
110000
3000
只要想想 －死亡所帶來的痛苦及損失 －
02:17
it's also, economically, enormously wasteful.
33
113000
3000
從經濟層面來看，更是龐大損失
02:20
I just look at the information, and knowledge, and experience
34
116000
3000
僅就自然死亡 - 特別是年老 -
02:23
that is lost due to natural causes of death in general,
35
119000
3000
來觀察死亡所代表的訊息，知識
02:26
and aging, in particular.
36
122000
2000
及經驗的損失
02:28
Suppose we approximated one person with one book?
37
124000
3000
假如，把一個人看成一本書
02:31
Now, of course, this is an underestimation.
38
127000
2000
當然，這也還是低估了
02:33
A person's lifetime of learning and experience
39
129000
6000
一個人一生的學得的知識及經歷
02:39
is a lot more than you could put into a single book.
40
135000
2000
遠遠多於單單一本書所能包含
02:41
But let's suppose we did this.
41
137000
2000
但，就讓我們先這樣假定
02:44
52 million people die of natural causes each year
42
140000
5000
每年有5千2百萬人自然死亡
02:49
corresponds, then, to 52 million volumes destroyed.
43
145000
4000
基本上，就等於每年有5千2百萬本書被摧毀
02:53
Library of Congress holds 18 million volumes.
44
149000
3000
美國國會圖書館館藏不過1千8百萬本書
02:57
We are upset about the burning of the Library of Alexandria.
45
153000
3000
古亞歷山大圖書館遭焚燬
03:00
It's one of the great cultural tragedies
46
156000
2000
是人類文化大災難之一
03:02
that we remember, even today.
47
158000
3000
我們至今仍為之扼腕
03:06
But this is the equivalent of three Libraries of Congress --
48
162000
2000
但我們談每年死亡人數（5千2百萬）
03:08
burnt down, forever lost -- each year.
49
164000
3000
這可相當每年燒毀三個國會圖書館
03:11
So that's the first big problem.
50
167000
2000
所以，這可是第一個大問題
03:13
And I wish Godspeed to Aubrey de Grey,
51
169000
3000
在這兒，我祝 傲伯芮德格瑞（Aubrey de Grey)
03:16
and other people like him,
52
172000
2000
及其他和他一樣（譯註：研究老化 - Gerontology) 的人好運
03:18
to try to do something about this as soon as possible.
53
174000
3000
儘速對 老化死亡 這個議題找出些頭緒
03:22
Existential risk -- the second big problem.
54
178000
3000
人類生存危機，第二大問題
03:25
Existential risk is a threat to human survival, or to the long-term potential of our species.
55
181000
7000
這對人類存活，或對人類長期潛能來說，都是一項威脅。
03:32
Now, why do I say that this is a big problem?
56
188000
2000
但，我們為什麼要說這是個大問題？
03:34
Well, let's first look at the probability --
57
190000
4000
這樣吧，我們從機率開始探討
03:38
and this is very, very difficult to estimate --
58
194000
3000
這數字很難很難估計
03:41
but there have been only four studies on this in recent years,
59
197000
3000
但近些年來，也不過只有四個相關研究
03:44
which is surprising.
60
200000
2000
這還真讓人意外
03:46
You would think that it would be of some interest
61
202000
3000
你應該認為會有人有興趣
03:49
to try to find out more about this given that the stakes are so big,
62
205000
4000
去探討後果這般嚴重的問題
03:53
but it's a very neglected area.
63
209000
2000
但這問題其實完全不受重視
03:55
But there have been four studies --
64
211000
2000
僅僅就只四個相關研究
03:57
one by John Lesley, wrote a book on this.
65
213000
2000
四個研究裡，就只有 約翰 萊斯利 寫了專書申述
03:59
He estimated a probability that we will fail
66
215000
2000
他估計人類在21世紀裡
04:01
to survive the current century: 50 percent.
67
217000
3000
滅亡的機率為百分之五十
04:04
Similarly, the Astronomer Royal, whom we heard speak yesterday,
68
220000
5000
同樣的，昨天在此演講的皇家天文學家（Astronomer Royal)
04:09
also has a 50 percent probability estimate.
69
225000
3000
也提出一樣的估計：百分之五十的機率
04:12
Another author doesn't give any numerical estimate,
70
228000
3000
還有個作者雖然沒有提出確切數字
04:15
but says the probability is significant that it will fail.
71
231000
3000
但也說人類滅亡的可能性不低
04:18
I wrote a long paper on this.
72
234000
3000
我對此事曾發表了篇長文
04:21
I said assigning a less than 20 percent probability would be a mistake
73
237000
4000
我說要說人類滅亡的機率小於百分之二十，那可就錯了
04:25
in light of the current evidence we have.
74
241000
3000
這是就我們已知的證據來研判
04:28
Now, the exact figures here,
75
244000
2000
對於這裡說的各項數字
04:30
we should take with a big grain of salt,
76
246000
2000
我們當然也不該毫不保留，照章全收
04:32
but there seems to be a consensus that the risk is substantial.
77
248000
3000
但可以看出人類滅亡的危機重大確實是共識
04:35
Everybody who has looked at this and studied it agrees.
78
251000
3000
關心與研究過這個主題的人都同意
04:38
Now, if we think about what just reducing
79
254000
2000
假如，我們思考一下
04:40
the probability of human extinction by just one percentage point --
80
256000
5000
只要把人類可能滅亡的機率減少百分之一
04:45
not very much -- so that's equivalent to 60 million lives saved,
81
261000
5000
不多， 但已經代表保住6千萬條人命
04:50
if we just count the currently living people, the current generation.
82
266000
4000
這還是以本世代人口來計
04:54
Now one percent of six billion people is equivalent to 60 million.
83
270000
4000
60億人的百分之一就是6千萬
04:58
So that's a large number.
84
274000
2000
這可是個大數字
05:00
If we were to take into account future generations
85
276000
3000
我們如果考慮將來的世代
05:03
that will never come into existence if we blow ourselves up,
86
279000
5000
如果我們搞咂了 就沒有機會出生的這些未來人
05:08
then the figure becomes astronomical.
87
284000
3000
那可就成了天文數字
05:11
If we could eventually colonize a chunk of the universe --
88
287000
3000
假如將來人類真有機會殖民宇宙
05:14
the Virgo supercluster --
89
290000
2000
比如說到室女座星系團殖民
05:16
maybe it will take us 100 million years to get there,
90
292000
2000
也許，這件事要在1億年後才會發生
05:18
but if we go extinct we never will.
91
294000
3000
但如果人類滅亡了，當然就不可能發生了
05:21
Then, even a one percentage point reduction
92
297000
3000
所以，甚至只要能把人類滅亡的風險
05:24
in the extinction risk could be equivalent
93
300000
4000
減少小小的一個百分點
05:28
to this astronomical number -- 10 to the power of 32.
94
304000
3000
可以說就是10的32次方這個天文數字的差別
05:31
So if you take into account future generations as much as our own,
95
307000
4000
所以你如果把現在的和將來的人一併考量
05:35
every other moral imperative of philanthropic cost just becomes irrelevant.
96
311000
5000
所有肇因道德因素的慈善作為所花費成本就已完全無關緊要
05:40
The only thing you should focus on
97
316000
2000
我們應該只專注於
05:42
would be to reduce existential risk
98
318000
2000
降低生存危機
05:44
because even the tiniest decrease in existential risk
99
320000
4000
因為在生存危機上就算 最微小的改善
05:48
would just overwhelm any other benefit you could hope to achieve.
100
324000
4000
效果就遠遠超過任何其他作為的成效
05:52
And even if you just look at the current people,
101
328000
2000
就算你只考慮當代人
05:54
and ignore the potential that would be lost if we went extinct,
102
330000
5000
不去計較人類若不滅亡而衍生的種種可能
05:59
it should still have a high priority.
103
335000
2000
這依然是高優先最該做的事
06:01
Now, let me spend the rest of my time on the third big problem,
104
337000
5000
現在，剩下的時間，讓我討論第三個問題
06:06
because it's more subtle and perhaps difficult to grasp.
105
342000
5000
因為這問題更隱晦，也可能很難理解
06:12
Think about some time in your life --
106
348000
4000
試想在你生命裡的某一刻
06:16
some people might never have experienced it -- but some people,
107
352000
3000
有人也許從未有這種體驗 ，但對有些人來說
06:19
there are just those moments that you have experienced
108
355000
3000
在生命中經歷過
06:22
where life was fantastic.
109
358000
2000
人生的美好
06:24
It might have been at the moment of some great, creative inspiration
110
360000
7000
也許是經歷偉大有創意的啟發時刻
06:31
you might have had when you just entered this flow stage.
111
367000
2000
曾經在生命裡經歷這樣的美好
06:33
Or when you understood something you had never done before.
112
369000
2000
或許，對從未做過的事，你突然有所了悟
06:35
Or perhaps in the ecstasy of romantic love.
113
371000
4000
或許，你經歷了情愛的極美
06:39
Or an aesthetic experience -- a sunset or a great piece of art.
114
375000
5000
或者是美的體驗 －美麗的夕陽，或一個很棒的藝術品
06:44
Every once in a while we have these moments,
115
380000
2000
人生中，我們偶爾有這般的體驗
06:46
and we realize just how good life can be when it's at its best.
116
382000
4000
讓我們了解生命可以這般美好
06:50
And you wonder, why can't it be like that all the time?
117
386000
5000
你就想了，為什麼生命不可以一直這般美好？
06:55
You just want to cling onto this.
118
391000
2000
你只想緊緊把握這美麗體驗
06:57
And then, of course, it drifts back into ordinary life and the memory fades.
119
393000
4000
當然，一切也終將回歸平凡，美的記憶也會褪色
07:01
And it's really difficult to recall, in a normal frame of mind,
120
397000
4000
在心情回歸平常後，很難喚回這些美好的回憶
07:05
just how good life can be at its best.
121
401000
3000
想不起生命可以有多美好
07:08
Or how bad it can be at its worst.
122
404000
3000
或是在最糟的時候可以有多糟
07:11
The third big problem is that life isn't usually
123
407000
3000
第三個問題就是
07:14
as wonderful as it could be.
124
410000
2000
生命總是不能一直都美好
07:16
I think that's a big, big problem.
125
412000
4000
我想這是個很大，很大的問題
07:20
It's easy to say what we don't want.
126
416000
2000
我們很容易可以指出我們不要的東西
07:23
Here are a number of things that we don't want --
127
419000
3000
有些東西，我們都不想要
07:26
illness, involuntary death, unnecessary suffering, cruelty,
128
422000
3000
像是疾病，不能盡天年，不必要的受苦，殘酷
07:29
stunted growth, memory loss, ignorance, absence of creativity.
129
425000
5000
發育不全，喪失記憶，無知，缺乏創造力
07:35
Suppose we fixed these things -- we did something about all of these.
130
431000
3000
如果我們能解決 這些缺陷－我們找出方法，解決全部的問題。
07:38
We were very successful.
131
434000
2000
我們很成功
07:40
We got rid of all of these things.
132
436000
2000
成功的擺脫了這些 人們不愛的事物
07:42
We might end up with something like this,
133
438000
3000
我們可能就可以像這樣
07:45
which is -- I mean, it's a heck of a lot better than that.
134
441000
4000
就是... 我想，當然要比這些都好的多
07:49
But is this really the best we can dream of?
135
445000
5000
但這真是我們夢想的極致嗎？
07:54
Is this the best we can do?
136
450000
2000
不能更好嗎？
07:56
Or is it possible to find something a little bit more inspiring to work towards?
137
452000
6000
還是，我們可以找到更激發人心的目標，讓我們繼續努力嗎？
08:02
And if we think about this,
138
458000
2000
如果我們想一想
08:04
I think it's very clear that there are ways
139
460000
4000
我想很顯然地 有一些方法
08:08
in which we could change things, not just by eliminating negatives,
140
464000
3000
來產生改變，不只是排除負面事物
08:11
but adding positives.
141
467000
2000
而是累積好的東西
08:13
On my wish list, at least, would be:
142
469000
2000
至少，我會希望這些
08:15
much longer, healthier lives, greater subjective well-being,
143
471000
5000
好像是 更長壽，更健康，自我感受良好
08:20
enhanced cognitive capacities, more knowledge and understanding,
144
476000
5000
更好的認知能力，更多知識，與對事物的理解
08:25
unlimited opportunity for personal growth
145
481000
2000
無上限的自我成長機會
08:27
beyond our current biological limits, better relationships,
146
483000
4000
超越我們現在的生理上的限制，更棒的人際關係
08:31
an unbounded potential for spiritual, moral
147
487000
2000
不論是精神上，道德上
08:33
and intellectual development.
148
489000
2000
或是智力發展上，都有無限潛能
08:35
If we want to achieve this, what, in the world, would have to change?
149
491000
8000
假如要滿足這些需求，我們究竟得改變些什麼？
08:43
And this is the answer -- we would have to change.
150
499000
5000
答案就是 -- 我們必須改變
08:48
Not just the world around us, but we, ourselves.
151
504000
3000
不是改變我們周遭環境，而是改變我們自己
08:51
Not just the way we think about the world, but the way we are -- our very biology.
152
507000
4000
不只是我們如何看這個世界，而是我們的本質 -- 生物體
08:55
Human nature would have to change.
153
511000
2000
人的本質必須要改變
08:57
Now, when we think about changing human nature,
154
513000
2000
當我們想到改變人的本質
08:59
the first thing that comes to mind
155
515000
2000
首先想到的
09:01
are these human modification technologies --
156
517000
4000
是些改變人的科技
09:05
growth hormone therapy, cosmetic surgery,
157
521000
2000
像 生長賀爾蒙療法，外科整容
09:07
stimulants like Ritalin, Adderall, anti-depressants,
158
523000
3000
利他能，愛得奧（Adderall） 之類的興奮劑 還有抗憂鬱藥物
09:10
anabolic steroids, artificial hearts.
159
526000
2000
合成代謝類固醇，人工心臟
09:12
It's a pretty pathetic list.
160
528000
3000
不是太讓人振奮的一些東西
09:15
They do great things for a few people
161
531000
2000
他們對一部份人幫助很大
09:17
who suffer from some specific condition,
162
533000
2000
對那些受到特定疾病困擾的人都有利
09:19
but for most people, they don't really transform
163
535000
5000
但對大多數人來說
09:24
what it is to be human.
164
540000
2000
這些並無法改變人的本質
09:26
And they also all seem a little bit --
165
542000
2000
也讓人覺得有些那個...
09:28
most people have this instinct that, well, sure,
166
544000
3000
多數人都能了解，對真的受憂鬱所苦的人來說
09:31
there needs to be anti-depressants for the really depressed people.
167
547000
2000
當然需要抗憂鬱藥物的幫助
09:33
But there's a kind of queasiness
168
549000
2000
但多少也讓人有些許坐立難安
09:35
that these are unnatural in some way.
169
551000
3000
認為這並不很自然
09:38
It's worth recalling that there are a lot of other
170
554000
2000
當然我們還有很多其他
09:40
modification technologies and enhancement technologies that we use.
171
556000
3000
修改，增進性質的技術與方法
09:43
We have skin enhancements, clothing.
172
559000
4000
像是保護（增進）皮膚的東西 - 衣物
09:47
As far as I can see, all of you are users of this
173
563000
4000
這演講廳裡，每一個我看的到的人都使用這些東西
09:51
enhancement technology in this room, so that's a great thing.
174
567000
5000
所以這也是件很棒的事情
09:56
Mood modifiers have been used from time immemorial --
175
572000
3000
自有人類以來，我們就一直都都使用影響心情的東西
09:59
caffeine, alcohol, nicotine, immune system enhancement,
176
575000
5000
像 咖啡因，酒精，尼古丁等，以及增強免疫系統的東西
10:04
vision enhancement, anesthetics --
177
580000
2000
改善視力的東西與技術，麻醉等
10:06
we take that very much for granted,
178
582000
2000
我們都視麻醉為理所當然
10:08
but just think about how great progress that is --
179
584000
4000
但想想這是多麼大的進步
10:12
like, having an operation before anesthetics was not fun.
180
588000
4000
比如說，在有麻醉之前，動手術可一點也不好玩
10:16
Contraceptives, cosmetics and brain reprogramming techniques --
181
592000
6000
避孕藥，化妝品，改變腦袋思考的技術等
10:22
that sounds ominous,
182
598000
2000
聽起來嚴重的很
10:24
but the distinction between what is a technology --
183
600000
4000
但科技，這些小玩意
10:28
a gadget would be the archetype --
184
604000
2000
這些我們已經習以為常的東西
10:30
and other ways of changing and rewriting human nature is quite subtle.
185
606000
4000
和其他可以改變人本質的方法 其中差別其實很微妙
10:34
So if you think about what it means to learn arithmetic or to learn to read,
186
610000
4000
所以，只要想想，學算數，學識字
10:38
you're actually, literally rewriting your own brain.
187
614000
3000
你其實就真的是在改造你的腦袋思考方式
10:41
You're changing the microstructure of your brain as you go along.
188
617000
3000
你一邊學習，同時就在改變腦袋裡的微小的結構
10:45
So in a broad sense, we don't need to think about technology
189
621000
3000
所以，就一個比較寬廣的層面來說，我們不必把科技
10:48
as only little gadgets, like these things here,
190
624000
2000
當成是我們剛才所提到的那些小玩意
10:50
but even institutions and techniques,
191
626000
4000
而甚至該是大規模的組織及技術
10:54
psychological methods and so forth.
192
630000
2000
像是運用心理學的方法等等
10:56
Forms of organization can have a profound impact on human nature.
193
632000
5000
組織型態都對人的本質有極深遠的影響
11:01
Looking ahead, there is a range of technologies
194
637000
2000
未來，還有好多各式各樣的科技
11:03
that are almost certain to be developed sooner or later.
195
639000
3000
幾可確定遲早要發展出來
11:06
We are very ignorant about what the time scale for these things are,
196
642000
4000
我們完全不知這些新東西何時會出現
11:10
but they all are consistent with everything we know
197
646000
2000
但他們其實都是根據我們了解的
11:12
about physical laws, laws of chemistry, etc.
198
648000
4000
物理，化學的定理 等而發展
11:16
It's possible to assume,
199
652000
2000
我們很可以假設
11:18
setting aside a possibility of catastrophe,
200
654000
3000
若是不考慮人類可能滅亡這個災難
11:21
that sooner or later we will develop all of these.
201
657000
3000
遲早，這些都會被開發出來
11:24
And even just a couple of these would be enough
202
660000
3000
甚至只要一兩樣被開發出來
11:27
to transform the human condition.
203
663000
2000
就足以改變人類的現況
11:29
So let's look at some of the dimensions of human nature
204
665000
5000
那我們現在就看看人類本質裡
11:34
that seem to leave room for improvement.
205
670000
3000
幾個還可以改進的面向
11:37
Health span is a big and urgent thing,
206
673000
2000
健康，很重要也急迫
11:39
because if you're not alive,
207
675000
2000
因為沒有了生命
11:41
then all the other things will be to little avail.
208
677000
3000
其他的一切就沒意義了
11:44
Intellectual capacity -- let's take that box,
209
680000
2000
智慧能力 ─ 就這一項來說吧
11:46
which falls into a lot of different sub-categories:
210
682000
5000
很多東西都需要智慧能力
11:51
memory, concentration, mental energy, intelligence, empathy.
211
687000
3000
像記憶力，專心，心智的精力，聰明，同理心等
11:54
These are really great things.
212
690000
2000
這些都是好東西
11:56
Part of the reason why we value these traits
213
692000
2000
我們所以看重這些特質
11:58
is that they make us better at competing with other people --
214
694000
4000
部分理由在這些能力讓我們有能力和他人競爭
12:02
they're positional goods.
215
698000
2000
所以可以說他們有助競位
12:04
But part of the reason --
216
700000
2000
但另有部分理由
12:06
and that's the reason why we have ethical ground for pursuing these --
217
702000
4000
也就是我們所以能正大光明追求這些能力的原因
12:10
is that they're also intrinsically valuable.
218
706000
3000
在他們本身有實質的價值
12:13
It's just better to be able to understand more of the world around you
219
709000
4000
有能了解你周遭的環境的能力
12:17
and the people that you are communicating with,
220
713000
2000
了解和你溝通的人
12:19
and to remember what you have learned.
221
715000
4000
記得你學過的東西，就是比較好
12:23
Modalities and special faculties.
222
719000
2000
這些是慣常行為及特殊能力
12:25
Now, the human mind is not a single unitary information processor,
223
721000
5000
人的心智不是一個單一單面向的訊息處理器
12:30
but it has a lot of different, special, evolved modules
224
726000
4000
而是由許多不同的，專門且高度發展的模組與能力
12:34
that do specific things for us.
225
730000
2000
組合而成以 讓我們得以做特定事情
12:36
If you think about what we normally take as giving life a lot of its meaning --
226
732000
4000
想想賦予生命意義的許多東西
12:40
music, humor, eroticism, spirituality, aesthetics,
227
736000
4000
音樂，幽默，情色，精神上的訴求，美
12:44
nurturing and caring, gossip, chatting with people --
228
740000
5000
愛護教養，照護，閒言斐語，聊天等
12:49
all of these, very likely, are enabled by a special circuitry
229
745000
4000
所有這些，非常可能是因為人類
12:53
that we humans have,
230
749000
2000
某個非常特殊的組織而來
12:55
but that you could have another intelligent life form that lacks these.
231
751000
3000
但，我們也可以想像其他有智慧的生命體，完全沒有這些人類獨有的組織
12:58
We're just lucky that we have the requisite neural machinery
232
754000
3000
我們有幸能有這些神經組織
13:01
to process music and to appreciate it and enjoy it.
233
757000
4000
去處理，體會，並享受音樂
13:05
All of these would enable, in principle -- be amenable to enhancement.
234
761000
3000
這些原則上都促成我們的能力 ，我們也有機會增進這些能力
13:08
Some people have a better musical ability
235
764000
2000
有些人音樂能力強些
13:10
and ability to appreciate music than others have.
236
766000
2000
能比其他人更能享受音樂之美
13:12
It's also interesting to think about what other things are --
237
768000
3000
人類的一些其他能力也挺有趣
13:15
so if these all enabled great values,
238
771000
3000
假使這些能力都促成很棒的價值
13:19
why should we think that evolution has happened to provide us
239
775000
3000
那麼為什麼人類的進化
13:22
with all the modalities we would need to engage
240
778000
3000
會產生這麼多在人類活動中所必須有的能力
13:25
with other values that there might be?
241
781000
2000
以及其他各種不同的可能價值？
13:27
Imagine a species
242
783000
2000
想像有一個物種
13:29
that just didn't have this neural machinery for processing music.
243
785000
4000
沒有處理音樂的神經構造
13:33
And they would just stare at us with bafflement
244
789000
3000
他們就只能困惑的看著我們
13:36
when we spend time listening to a beautiful performance,
245
792000
4000
搞不清楚為什麼我們花時間聆聽優美的演奏
13:40
like the one we just heard -- because of people making stupid movements,
246
796000
2000
就好像我們該才才聽到的音樂， 還有人莫名的隨音樂節拍晃動
13:42
and they would be really irritated and wouldn't see what we were up to.
247
798000
3000
他們會很不高興，搞不清楚我們究竟在幹什麼
13:45
But maybe they have another faculty, something else
248
801000
3000
但他們可能有不同的能力，某些我們沒有的
13:48
that would seem equally irrational to us,
249
804000
3000
讓我們也覺得莫名其妙和不高興
13:51
but they actually tap into some great possible value there.
250
807000
3000
但他們也可能正促成某些很棒的價值
13:54
But we are just literally deaf to that kind of value.
251
810000
4000
但我們就真的是搞不懂他們追求的價值
13:58
So we could think of adding on different,
252
814000
2000
這就讓我們想像如果增加不同的
14:00
new sensory capacities and mental faculties.
253
816000
4000
感官或心智上的能力
14:04
Bodily functionality and morphology and affective self-control.
254
820000
5000
身體上的功能，身體的蛻變，基於喜惡的自我控制
14:09
Greater subjective well-being.
255
825000
2000
更棒的自我主觀感受
14:11
Be able to switch between relaxation and activity --
256
827000
3000
能動能靜，隨心所欲
14:14
being able to go slow when you need to do that, and to speed up.
257
830000
4000
要快得快，要慢則慢
14:18
Able to switch back and forth more easily
258
834000
2000
更容易的在不同狀態中來回轉換
14:20
would be a neat thing to be able to do --
259
836000
2000
能這樣一定很不錯
14:22
easier to achieve the flow state,
260
838000
2000
更容易達成流暢的狀態
14:24
when you're totally immersed in something you are doing.
261
840000
4000
完全沈浸於你所專注的事情中
14:28
Conscientiousness and sympathy.
262
844000
2000
高度自主自覺，也能感受他人
14:30
The ability to -- it's another interesting application
263
846000
3000
更有意思的一個可能，如果能 ...
14:33
that would have large social ramification, perhaps.
264
849000
3000
也許這也可能有大規模的社會迴響
14:36
If you could actually choose to preserve your romantic attachments to one person,
265
852000
6000
如果你真有能力決定延續你對一個人的愛情
14:42
undiminished through time,
266
858000
2000
不因時間流逝而消減
14:44
so that wouldn't have to -- love would never have to fade if you didn't want it to.
267
860000
3000
這樣愛就不會消逝，除非你決定自己放棄
14:49
That's probably not all that difficult.
268
865000
3000
這可能不會太困難
14:52
It might just be a simple hormone or something that could do this.
269
868000
3000
也許只要簡單改變賀爾蒙，或什麼的就可以做到
14:57
It's been done in voles.
270
873000
2000
這已經田鼠身上做到了
15:01
You can engineer a prairie vole to become monogamous
271
877000
3000
你可以人工培育出一隻 從一而終 的田鼠
15:04
when it's naturally polygamous.
272
880000
2000
但這些田鼠天性是多伴侶的
15:06
It's just a single gene.
273
882000
2000
只要改動單一基因
15:08
Might be more complicated in humans, but perhaps not that much.
274
884000
2000
在人身上可能要更複雜，但也不至於太複雜
15:10
This is the last picture that I want to --
275
886000
2000
這就是這張最後的圖片想顯示的
15:13
now we've got to use the laser pointer.
276
889000
2000
看來得用雷射筆幫我一下
15:16
A possible mode of being here would be a way of life --
277
892000
3000
一個可能的存在模式，一種生活方式
15:19
a way of being, experiencing, thinking, seeing,
278
895000
4000
一種存在，體驗，思考，觀察
15:23
interacting with the world.
279
899000
2000
與世界互動的一種方式
15:25
Down here in this little corner, here, we have the little sub-space
280
901000
5000
在這個角落這裡，這個小圓形代表人類
15:30
of this larger space that is accessible to human beings --
281
906000
4000
人類在這個大些的空間中所佔有的部分
15:34
beings with our biological capacities.
282
910000
3000
代表我們生物面上的能力
15:37
It's a part of the space that's accessible to animals;
283
913000
3000
這一部份只是動物界能力的一部份
15:40
since we are animals, we are a subset of that.
284
916000
3000
因為人也是動物，所以某些屬於動物的能力，我們也有
15:43
And then you can imagine some enhancements of human capacities.
285
919000
4000
然後，想像我們能增進人類的能力
15:47
There would be different modes of being you could experience
286
923000
3000
這會是人類可以體驗的不同存在模式
15:50
if you were able to stay alive for, say, 200 years.
287
926000
3000
當然，假設你可以活個兩百年
15:53
Then you could live sorts of lives and accumulate wisdoms
288
929000
4000
那你就可以過很多樣的生活，也累積智慧
15:57
that are just not possible for humans as we currently are.
289
933000
3000
但就現在的人類來看，這不可能發生
16:00
So then, you move off to this larger sphere of "human +,"
290
936000
4000
所以，活的長久，那你就有機會發展到這個較大的「人類+」範疇
16:04
and you could continue that process and eventually
291
940000
3000
這個過程就可以持續，最後呢
16:07
explore a lot of this larger space of possible modes of being.
292
943000
4000
這廣大的部分都可能成為人類存活的模式
16:11
Now, why is that a good thing to do?
293
947000
2000
為什麼這是件好事？
16:13
Well, we know already that in this little human circle there,
294
949000
4000
這麼說吧，我們就現在的小範圍內
16:17
there are these enormously wonderful and worthwhile modes of being --
295
953000
4000
已經有了這麼多美好又值得的生存方式
16:21
human life at its best is wonderful.
296
957000
3000
這是人類生活的極美
16:24
We have no reason to believe that within this much, much larger space
297
960000
5000
我們就沒理由認為，如果有更大更多的可能
16:29
there would not also be extremely worthwhile modes of being,
298
965000
4000
我們不能發現更多更好更棒的存在
16:33
perhaps ones that would be way beyond our wildest ability
299
969000
6000
甚至遠遠超過我們最狂野
16:39
even to imagine or dream about.
300
975000
2000
的想像與夢想
16:41
And so, to fix this third problem,
301
977000
2000
所以，要解決這第三個問題
16:43
I think we need -- slowly, carefully, with ethical wisdom and constraint --
302
979000
6000
我認為我們需要 - 緩慢，小心，以智慧處理倫理議題，自制的 -
16:49
develop the means that enable us to go out in this larger space and explore it
303
985000
5000
發展出那些能讓我們能突破現狀，探索未知的能力
16:54
and find the great values that might hide there.
304
990000
2000
探索，尋找在那些未知中可能隱藏的價值
16:56
Thanks.
305
992000
2000
謝謝
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Nick Bostrom - PhilosopherNick Bostrom asks big questions: What should we do, as individuals and as a species, to optimize our long-term prospects? Will humanity’s technological advancements ultimately destroy us?
Why you should listen
Philosopher Nick Bostrom envisioned a future full of human enhancement, nanotechnology and machine intelligence long before they became mainstream concerns. From his famous simulation argument -- which identified some striking implications of rejecting the Matrix-like idea that humans are living in a computer simulation -- to his work on existential risk, Bostrom approaches both the inevitable and the speculative using the tools of philosophy, probability theory, and scientific analysis.
Since 2005, Bostrom has led the Future of Humanity Institute, a research group of mathematicians, philosophers and scientists at Oxford University tasked with investigating the big picture for the human condition and its future. He has been referred to as one of the most important thinkers of our age.
Nick was honored as one of Foreign Policy's 2015 Global Thinkers .
His recent book Superintelligence advances the ominous idea that “the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make.”
Nick Bostrom | Speaker | TED.com