TEDGlobal 2005
Nick Bostrom: A philosophical quest for our biggest problems
Nick Bostrom o našim najvećim problemima
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Nick Bostrom, filozof i transhumanist s Oxforda razmatra o budućnosti čovječanstva i pita se je li moguće promijeniti čovjekovu prirodu kako bi se riješili naši unutarnji problemi.
Nick Bostrom - Philosopher
Nick Bostrom asks big questions: What should we do, as individuals and as a species, to optimize our long-term prospects? Will humanity’s technological advancements ultimately destroy us? Full bio
Nick Bostrom asks big questions: What should we do, as individuals and as a species, to optimize our long-term prospects? Will humanity’s technological advancements ultimately destroy us? Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:24
I want to talk today about --
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Želim vam danas nešto reći o –
00:27
I've been asked to take the long view, and I'm going to tell you what
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rekli su mi da razmišljam o utjecajima na budućnost i reći ću vam koji su to,
00:33
I think are the three biggest problems for humanity
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po mom mišljenju najveći problemi čovječanstva
00:37
from this long point of view.
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gledano na način kako će to utjecati na budućnost.
00:40
Some of these have already been touched upon by other speakers,
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Nekih su se od ovih problema već prije dotakli drugi govornici,
00:43
which is encouraging.
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što je ohrabrujuće.
00:45
It seems that there's not just one person
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Čini se kako ne misli samo jedna osoba
00:47
who thinks that these problems are important.
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da su ovi problemi važni.
00:49
The first is -- death is a big problem.
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Prvi je – smrt je veliki problem.
00:53
If you look at the statistics,
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Ako pogledate statistiku,
00:56
the odds are not very favorable to us.
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izgledi nam nisu baš povoljni.
00:58
So far, most people who have lived have also died.
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Do sada, većina ljudi koji su živjeli, također su i umrli.
01:02
Roughly 90 percent of everybody who has been alive has died by now.
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Oko 90% svih koji su ikada živjeli, do sada su umrli.
01:06
So the annual death rate adds up to 150,000 --
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Godišnja stopa smrtnosti doseže 150 000 –
01:12
sorry, the daily death rate -- 150,000 people per day,
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oprostite, dnevni broj umrlih -150 000 ljudi dnevno,
01:15
which is a huge number by any standard.
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što je ogroman broj.
01:18
The annual death rate, then, becomes 56 million.
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Godišnja stopa smrti, tako iznosi, 56 milijuna ljudi.
01:23
If we just look at the single, biggest cause of death -- aging --
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Ako promotrimo samo jedan, najveći uzrok smrti – starenje –
01:29
it accounts for roughly two-thirds of all human people who die.
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ono je odgovorno za otprilike dvije trećine umrlih.
01:34
That adds up to an annual death toll
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To dovodi do godišnjeg gubitka ljudi,
01:37
of greater than the population of Canada.
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čiji je broj veći od ukupne populacije Kanade.
01:39
Sometimes, we don't see a problem
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Ponekad problem ne vidimo,
01:41
because either it's too familiar or it's too big.
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ili jer ga smatramo previše svakodnevnim, ili zato što je prevelik.
01:45
Can't see it because it's too big.
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Ne možemo ga vidjeti jer je prevelik.
01:47
I think death might be both too familiar and too big
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Smatram da je smrt vjerojatno oboje – i previše blizak,
01:50
for most people to see it as a problem.
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ali i previše velik problem.
01:53
Once you think about it, you see this is not statistical points;
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Kada jednom promislite o tome, vidjet ćete da ga se ne može razmatrati sa statističkog gledišta.
01:55
these are -- let's see, how far have I talked?
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To su - da vidimo, koliko dugo već pričam?
01:57
I've talked for three minutes.
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Govorim tri minute.
02:00
So that would be, roughly, 324 people have died since I've begun speaking.
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Otprilike je 324 ljudi umrlo od kada sam ja počeo govoriti.
02:07
People like -- it's roughly the population in this room has just died.
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Ljudi kao - to je otprilike populacija velika kao broj vas koji se nalazite u ovoj sobi.
02:12
Now, the human cost of that is obvious,
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Onda, ljudski gubitak zbog smrti je očigledan.
02:14
once you start to think about it -- the suffering, the loss --
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Kada jednom počnete razmišljati o tome - patnja, gubitak -
02:17
it's also, economically, enormously wasteful.
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no, to je također, ekonomski gledano, izuzetno razorno.
02:20
I just look at the information, and knowledge, and experience
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Pogledajmo samo koliko informacija, znanja i iskustva
02:23
that is lost due to natural causes of death in general,
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se izgubi zbog prirodnih uzroka smrti,
02:26
and aging, in particular.
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posebice starenja.
02:28
Suppose we approximated one person with one book?
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Pretpostavimo da izjednačimo jednu osobu s jednom knjigom.
02:31
Now, of course, this is an underestimation.
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Naravno, tu sam podcijenio potencijal ljudi.
02:33
A person's lifetime of learning and experience
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Cjeloživotno učenje i iskustva jedne osobe
02:39
is a lot more than you could put into a single book.
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su nešto mnogo više nego što se može staviti u jednu jedinu knjigu.
02:41
But let's suppose we did this.
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No, pretpostavimo da smo to učinili.
02:44
52 million people die of natural causes each year
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52 milijuna ljudi koji umiru prirodnom smrću svake godine,
02:49
corresponds, then, to 52 million volumes destroyed.
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odgovaraju brojci od 52 milijuna uništenih svezaka.
02:53
Library of Congress holds 18 million volumes.
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Knjižnica Kongresa posjeduje 18 milijuna svezaka.
02:57
We are upset about the burning of the Library of Alexandria.
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Uznemireni smo zbog spaljivanja Aleksandrijske knjižnice,
03:00
It's one of the great cultural tragedies
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to je jedna od najvećih kulturnih tragedija
03:02
that we remember, even today.
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koje pamtimo čak i dan danas.
03:06
But this is the equivalent of three Libraries of Congress --
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No, to možemo izjednačiti s 3 spaljene knjižnice Kongresa,
03:08
burnt down, forever lost -- each year.
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zauvijek izgubljene, svake godine.
03:11
So that's the first big problem.
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To je, dakle, prvi veliki problem.
03:13
And I wish Godspeed to Aubrey de Grey,
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I želim svu sreću Aubrey de Grey
03:16
and other people like him,
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i drugim ljudima poput njega
03:18
to try to do something about this as soon as possible.
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u pokušaju što skorijeg rješavanja tog problema.
03:22
Existential risk -- the second big problem.
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Egzistencijalni rizik – drugi veliki problem.
03:25
Existential risk is a threat to human survival, or to the long-term potential of our species.
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Egzistencijalni rizik je prijetnja za ljudski opstanak ili dugoročno za potencijal naše vrste.
03:32
Now, why do I say that this is a big problem?
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E, sada.. zašto mislim da je to veliki problem?
03:34
Well, let's first look at the probability --
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Dakle, pogledajmo prvo na vjerojatnost –
03:38
and this is very, very difficult to estimate --
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što je vrlo teško za procijeniti -
03:41
but there have been only four studies on this in recent years,
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u posljednjih nekoliko godina napravljene su samo četiri studije o tome,
03:44
which is surprising.
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što je iznenađujuće.
03:46
You would think that it would be of some interest
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Vjerojatno biste pomislili da bi bilo od općeg interesa
03:49
to try to find out more about this given that the stakes are so big,
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saznati nešto o tome s obzirom da je to tako bitno,
03:53
but it's a very neglected area.
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no ovo je zaista zapravo vrlo zanemareno područje.
03:55
But there have been four studies --
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No, ipak napravljene su četiri studije –
03:57
one by John Lesley, wrote a book on this.
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jednu je vodio John Lesley, napisao je i knjigu na tu temu.
03:59
He estimated a probability that we will fail
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Po njegovoj je procjeni vjerojatnost da će nam vrsta biti
04:01
to survive the current century: 50 percent.
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iskorijenjena tijekom ovog stoljeća – 50 posto.
04:04
Similarly, the Astronomer Royal, whom we heard speak yesterday,
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Slično tome, astronom Royal, kojega smo imali priliku jučer poslušati,
04:09
also has a 50 percent probability estimate.
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također je procijenio da je vjerojatnost za preživljavanje 50 posto.
04:12
Another author doesn't give any numerical estimate,
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Još jedan autor, ne daje nikakve brojčane procjene,
04:15
but says the probability is significant that it will fail.
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no ističe da je vjerojatnost da nam vrsta neće opstati značajna.
04:18
I wrote a long paper on this.
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Napisao sam dugačak članak na tu temu.
04:21
I said assigning a less than 20 percent probability would be a mistake
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Napisao sam da bi procjenjivanje na manje od 20 posto vjerojatnosti bila pogrješka
04:25
in light of the current evidence we have.
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s obzirom na sve dosadašnje dokaze koje imamo.
04:28
Now, the exact figures here,
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E sada.. točne brojke koje se navode
04:30
we should take with a big grain of salt,
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treba uzeti s velikom rezervom,
04:32
but there seems to be a consensus that the risk is substantial.
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no čini se da se ipak mnogo ljudi slaže oko toga kako je rizik značajan.
04:35
Everybody who has looked at this and studied it agrees.
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Svatko tko se time bavio i proučavao taj problem se slaže.
04:38
Now, if we think about what just reducing
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No, ako samo smislimo nešto što bi smanjilo
04:40
the probability of human extinction by just one percentage point --
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vjerojatnost izumiranja ljudske vrste za samo jedan posto –
04:45
not very much -- so that's equivalent to 60 million lives saved,
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ne baš puno – to bi bilo jednako kao 60 milijuna spašenih života,
04:50
if we just count the currently living people, the current generation.
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i to ako računamo samo ljude koji trenutno žive.
04:54
Now one percent of six billion people is equivalent to 60 million.
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Dakle, jedan posto od šest milijardi ljudi iznosi 60 milijuna ljudi.
04:58
So that's a large number.
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To je, znači, veliki broj.
05:00
If we were to take into account future generations
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Kada bismo uzeli u obzir buduće generacije
05:03
that will never come into existence if we blow ourselves up,
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koje nikada neće biti rođene ako sami sebe uništimo,
05:08
then the figure becomes astronomical.
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brojka bi bila astronomski visoka.
05:11
If we could eventually colonize a chunk of the universe --
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Kada bismo, recimo, mogli kolonizirati komad svemira –
05:14
the Virgo supercluster --
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primjerice Virgo supercluster –
05:16
maybe it will take us 100 million years to get there,
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možda će nam trebati 100 milijuna godina da dođemo do tamo,
05:18
but if we go extinct we never will.
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ali ako izumremo, nikada nećemo uspjeti.
05:21
Then, even a one percentage point reduction
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Tako da bi čak i smanjenje rizika izumiranja
05:24
in the extinction risk could be equivalent
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od samo jednog postotka bila jednaka
05:28
to this astronomical number -- 10 to the power of 32.
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astronomski visokom broju ljudi – čak i 10 na trideset drugu.
05:31
So if you take into account future generations as much as our own,
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Dakle, ako se uzmu u obzir buduće generacije, isto kao i naša postojeća,
05:35
every other moral imperative of philanthropic cost just becomes irrelevant.
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svaki drugi moralni imperativ ljudskog gubitka postaje nevažan.
05:40
The only thing you should focus on
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Jedina stvar na koju bi se trebali usredotočiti je
05:42
would be to reduce existential risk
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smanjenje egzistencijalne opasnosti
05:44
because even the tiniest decrease in existential risk
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zato što bi čak i najmanje smanjenje rizika izumiranja
05:48
would just overwhelm any other benefit you could hope to achieve.
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bilo značajnije od bilo koje drugog humanog cilja kojega ste se nadali postići.
05:52
And even if you just look at the current people,
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Čak i kada biste zanemarili potencijal budućih generacija
05:54
and ignore the potential that would be lost if we went extinct,
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i samo mislili na ljude koji trenutno žive,
05:59
it should still have a high priority.
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opet bi ta zadaća imala prioritet.
06:01
Now, let me spend the rest of my time on the third big problem,
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Dopustite mi da posvetim ostatak vremena koje imam trećem velikom problemu
06:06
because it's more subtle and perhaps difficult to grasp.
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– zato što nije toliko očit, i možda je malo teži za shvatiti.
06:12
Think about some time in your life --
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Razmislite malo o nekom razdoblju svojega života –
06:16
some people might never have experienced it -- but some people,
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neki ljudi možda nikada nisu doživjeli takvo što – no neki ljudi
06:19
there are just those moments that you have experienced
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su doživjeli razdoblje
06:22
where life was fantastic.
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u kojemu je život jednostavno bio fantastičan.
06:24
It might have been at the moment of some great, creative inspiration
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Tako ste se možda osjećali u razdoblju velike, kreativne inspiracije
06:31
you might have had when you just entered this flow stage.
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koju ste imali kada ste ušli u tu fazu života.
06:33
Or when you understood something you had never done before.
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Ili ste možda shvatili nešto novo, što vas je prosvijetlilo.
06:35
Or perhaps in the ecstasy of romantic love.
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Ili ste bili u ekstazi jake romantične ljubavi.
06:39
Or an aesthetic experience -- a sunset or a great piece of art.
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Ili je to možda bio neki estetski doživljaj – zalazak sunca ili veliko umjetničko djelo.
06:44
Every once in a while we have these moments,
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Uvijek kada proživljavamo iznova takve trenutke,
06:46
and we realize just how good life can be when it's at its best.
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shvatimo koliko život može biti divan kada je na svom vrhuncu.
06:50
And you wonder, why can't it be like that all the time?
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Pitate se zašto ne može biti takav cijelo vrijeme?
06:55
You just want to cling onto this.
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Želite ga takvim zadržati.
06:57
And then, of course, it drifts back into ordinary life and the memory fades.
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I onda se, naravno, vrati sve u svakodnevnicu i sjećanja na te divne trenutke blijede.
07:01
And it's really difficult to recall, in a normal frame of mind,
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I stvarno se nekada teško prisjetiti, u normalnim uvjetima,
07:05
just how good life can be at its best.
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kako život može biti lijep kada je na vrhuncu.
07:08
Or how bad it can be at its worst.
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Ili kako može biti užasan kada je na dnu.
07:11
The third big problem is that life isn't usually
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Treći veliki problem je što život većinom
07:14
as wonderful as it could be.
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nije toliko dobar koliko bi mogao biti.
07:16
I think that's a big, big problem.
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Mislim da je to veliki, veliki problem.
07:20
It's easy to say what we don't want.
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Lako nam je reći što ne želimo.
07:23
Here are a number of things that we don't want --
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Evo, samo nekoliko stvari koje ne želimo –
07:26
illness, involuntary death, unnecessary suffering, cruelty,
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bolest, neželjena smrt, nepotrebna patnja, okrutnost,
07:29
stunted growth, memory loss, ignorance, absence of creativity.
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poremećaj u razvoju, gubitak pamćenja, neznanje, nedostatak kreativnosti..
07:35
Suppose we fixed these things -- we did something about all of these.
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Pretpostavimo da te probleme riješimo – da smo učinili nešto protiv svega toga.
07:38
We were very successful.
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I to vrlo uspješno.
07:40
We got rid of all of these things.
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Da smo se riješili svih ovih stvari.
07:42
We might end up with something like this,
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Mogli bismo završiti s tako nečim.
07:45
which is -- I mean, it's a heck of a lot better than that.
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Što je, mislim, puno bolje od onoga.
07:49
But is this really the best we can dream of?
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No, je li to stvarno ono najbolje što možemo zamisliti?
07:54
Is this the best we can do?
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Je li to najbolje što možemo postići?
07:56
Or is it possible to find something a little bit more inspiring to work towards?
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Ili, je li moguće naći neku veću inspiraciju prema kojoj treba težiti?
08:02
And if we think about this,
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I, ako promislimo o tome,
08:04
I think it's very clear that there are ways
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mislim da je vrlo jasno da postoje načini
08:08
in which we could change things, not just by eliminating negatives,
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pomoću kojih to možemo promijeniti, ne samo eliminirajući stvari koje ne želimo da nam se dogode u životu,
08:11
but adding positives.
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nego i pokušavajući ostvariti ono što želimo proživjeti.
08:13
On my wish list, at least, would be:
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Na mojoj bi listi želja bilo:
08:15
much longer, healthier lives, greater subjective well-being,
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mnogo duži, zdraviji životni vijek, više subjektivnog blagostanja,
08:20
enhanced cognitive capacities, more knowledge and understanding,
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poboljšane kognitivne sposobnosti, više znanja i razumijevanja,
08:25
unlimited opportunity for personal growth
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neograničene mogućnosti za osobni razvoj
08:27
beyond our current biological limits, better relationships,
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iznad naših trenutačnih bioloških granica, bolji međuljudski odnosi,
08:31
an unbounded potential for spiritual, moral
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neograničen potencijal za duhovni, moralni
08:33
and intellectual development.
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i intelektualni razvoj.
08:35
If we want to achieve this, what, in the world, would have to change?
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Što se mora promijeniti u svijetu da bismo to postigli?
08:43
And this is the answer -- we would have to change.
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Postoji odgovor – MI bismo se morali promijeniti.
08:48
Not just the world around us, but we, ourselves.
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Ne samo svijet oko nas, nego mi, osobno.
08:51
Not just the way we think about the world, but the way we are -- our very biology.
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Ne samo način na koji razmišljamo o svijetu, nego ono što jesmo, ono što nas čini onim što jesmo – našu biologiju.
08:55
Human nature would have to change.
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Ljudska priroda bi se morala promijeniti.
08:57
Now, when we think about changing human nature,
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Dakle, kada razmišljamo o promjeni ljudske prirode,
08:59
the first thing that comes to mind
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prva stvar koja nam pada na pamet
09:01
are these human modification technologies --
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su tehnologije poboljšanja ljudskih osobina –
09:05
growth hormone therapy, cosmetic surgery,
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terapija hormonima rasta, estetska kirurgija,
09:07
stimulants like Ritalin, Adderall, anti-depressants,
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stimulansi poput Ritalina, Adderalla, antidepresiva,
09:10
anabolic steroids, artificial hearts.
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anaboličkih steroida, umjetno srce..
09:12
It's a pretty pathetic list.
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Prilično jadna lista.
09:15
They do great things for a few people
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Sve što sam nabrojao – odlično pomaže nekolicini ljudi
09:17
who suffer from some specific condition,
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koji pate od nekih određenih stanja.
09:19
but for most people, they don't really transform
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No, za većinu ljudi, oni ne mijenjaju
09:24
what it is to be human.
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ono po čemu se osjećaju ljudima.
09:26
And they also all seem a little bit --
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I također se svi čine pomalo –
09:28
most people have this instinct that, well, sure,
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većina ljudi posjeduje predrasude... mislim, naravno,
09:31
there needs to be anti-depressants for the really depressed people.
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antidepresivi su korisni i potrebni za vrlo depresivne ljude.
09:33
But there's a kind of queasiness
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No, postoji određeni osjećaj nelagode
09:35
that these are unnatural in some way.
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u svijesti ljudi prema tim lijekovima, jer su neprirodni.
09:38
It's worth recalling that there are a lot of other
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No, dobro je podsjetiti se kako postoji još mnogo drugih
09:40
modification technologies and enhancement technologies that we use.
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načina kojima možemo poboljšati ili izmijeniti naše tjelesne predispozicije.
09:43
We have skin enhancements, clothing.
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Primjerice, kao 'poboljšanje' naše kože – odjeću.
09:47
As far as I can see, all of you are users of this
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Koliko mogu vidjeti, svi ste vi u ovoj sobi
09:51
enhancement technology in this room, so that's a great thing.
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korisnici odjeće, što je odlično.
09:56
Mood modifiers have been used from time immemorial --
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Za promjenu raspoloženja koriste se još od pamtivijeka –
09:59
caffeine, alcohol, nicotine, immune system enhancement,
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kofein, alkohol, nikotin, pripravci za poboljšanje imunološkog sustava,
10:04
vision enhancement, anesthetics --
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operacije očiju zbog boljeg vida, anestetici..
10:06
we take that very much for granted,
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Većinu tih stvari uzimamo zdravo za gotovo –
10:08
but just think about how great progress that is --
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ali zamislite samo koliki je to bio velik napredak –
10:12
like, having an operation before anesthetics was not fun.
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jer, operacije prije uporabe anestetika, zaista nisu bile zabavne.
10:16
Contraceptives, cosmetics and brain reprogramming techniques --
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Kontraceptivi, kozmetika, tehnike reprogramiranja mozga –
10:22
that sounds ominous,
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to zvuči zloslutno.
10:24
but the distinction between what is a technology --
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No, razlika između onoga što je tehnologija –
10:28
a gadget would be the archetype --
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naprava bi bila prauzor–
10:30
and other ways of changing and rewriting human nature is quite subtle.
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i drugih načina mijenjanja ljudske prirode prilično je malena.
10:34
So if you think about what it means to learn arithmetic or to learn to read,
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Recimo, kada učite aritmetiku ili učite čitati,
10:38
you're actually, literally rewriting your own brain.
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zapravo, doslovce, reprogramirate svoj vlastiti mozak.
10:41
You're changing the microstructure of your brain as you go along.
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Mijenjate mikro-strukture svojega mozga.
10:45
So in a broad sense, we don't need to think about technology
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Tako je u širem smislu – ne moramo razmišljati o tehnologiji
10:48
as only little gadgets, like these things here,
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kao samo malom programčiću – kao ove stvari ovdje.
10:50
but even institutions and techniques,
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No, čak i institucije i tehnike,
10:54
psychological methods and so forth.
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psihološke metode i tako dalje.
10:56
Forms of organization can have a profound impact on human nature.
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Oblici organizacije mogu imati dubok utjecaj na ljudsku prirodu.
11:01
Looking ahead, there is a range of technologies
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Gledajući u budućnost – postoji cijeli niz tehnologija
11:03
that are almost certain to be developed sooner or later.
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koje će se gotovo sigurno razviti prije ili kasnije.
11:06
We are very ignorant about what the time scale for these things are,
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Ne znamo ni otprilike koliko će vremena do takvih otkrića proteći –
11:10
but they all are consistent with everything we know
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to će biti u skladu sa svime što znamo
11:12
about physical laws, laws of chemistry, etc.
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o fizikalnim i kemijskim zakonima i tako dalje.
11:16
It's possible to assume,
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Možemo pretpostaviti da ćemo,
11:18
setting aside a possibility of catastrophe,
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ako zanemarimo mogućnost da se dogodi neka katastrofa,
11:21
that sooner or later we will develop all of these.
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prije ili kasnije te stvari razviti.
11:24
And even just a couple of these would be enough
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Čak i samo nekoliko takvih izuma bili bi dovoljni
11:27
to transform the human condition.
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za potpunu promjenu ljudskoga stanja.
11:29
So let's look at some of the dimensions of human nature
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Obratimo pozornost na neke dimenzije ljudske prirode
11:34
that seem to leave room for improvement.
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koje ostavljaju prostora za njihovo poboljšanje.
11:37
Health span is a big and urgent thing,
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Zdravlje je bitna i hitna stavka –
11:39
because if you're not alive,
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jer ako umrete,
11:41
then all the other things will be to little avail.
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sve ostale stvari nisu baš korisne.
11:44
Intellectual capacity -- let's take that box,
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Intelektualni kapacitet – uzmimo to kao primjer –
11:46
which falls into a lot of different sub-categories:
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sastoji se od mnogo pod-kategorija –
11:51
memory, concentration, mental energy, intelligence, empathy.
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pamćenje, koncentracija, mentalna energija, inteligencija, empatija.
11:54
These are really great things.
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To su sve bitne stvari.
11:56
Part of the reason why we value these traits
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Razlog zašto su nam ove vrijednosti tako bitne leži u tome
11:58
is that they make us better at competing with other people --
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što nas one čine boljima u usporedbi s drugim ljudima –
12:02
they're positional goods.
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određuju naš položaj u društvu.
12:04
But part of the reason --
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No, drugi je razlog –
12:06
and that's the reason why we have ethical ground for pursuing these --
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zbog kojega imamo etičku podlogu za produbljivanje ove teme –
12:10
is that they're also intrinsically valuable.
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taj što je ovo također i urođeno vrijedno.
12:13
It's just better to be able to understand more of the world around you
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Jednostavno je bolje ako možete shvatiti svijet oko sebe
12:17
and the people that you are communicating with,
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i ljude s kojima razgovarate
12:19
and to remember what you have learned.
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i sjetiti se onoga što ste nekada učili.
12:23
Modalities and special faculties.
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Načini i posebne sposobnosti.
12:25
Now, the human mind is not a single unitary information processor,
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Dakle, ljudski um nije jedan jedinstveni informacijski procesor,
12:30
but it has a lot of different, special, evolved modules
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sastoji se od mnogo različitih posebnih, razvijenih dijelova
12:34
that do specific things for us.
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koji za nas obrađuju informacije.
12:36
If you think about what we normally take as giving life a lot of its meaning --
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Uzmimo stvari za koje obično smatramo da čine život vrijednim –
12:40
music, humor, eroticism, spirituality, aesthetics,
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glazba, humor, erotika, duhovnost, estetika,
12:44
nurturing and caring, gossip, chatting with people --
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odgoj i briga, trač, razgovor s ljudima...
12:49
all of these, very likely, are enabled by a special circuitry
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Sve navedeno, vrlo vjerojatno, omogućuje određeni sklop
12:53
that we humans have,
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koji mi ljudi posjedujemo,
12:55
but that you could have another intelligent life form that lacks these.
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ali i to da bi mogli postojati drugi inteligentni oblici života kojima to nedostaje.
12:58
We're just lucky that we have the requisite neural machinery
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Možemo se nazvati sretnicima jer imamo potreban živčani sklop
13:01
to process music and to appreciate it and enjoy it.
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koji nam omogućuje obradu zvuka i uživanje u glazbi.
13:05
All of these would enable, in principle -- be amenable to enhancement.
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U načelu, sve to omogućuje dobru podlogu za poboljšanja.
13:08
Some people have a better musical ability
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Neki ljudi imaju bolji
13:10
and ability to appreciate music than others have.
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smisao za glazbu od drugih.
13:12
It's also interesting to think about what other things are --
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Također je zanimljivo zamisliti što bi bile druge stvari koje nam promiču –
13:15
so if these all enabled great values,
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dakle, ako nam ovo sve omogućuje takve vrijednosti,
13:19
why should we think that evolution has happened to provide us
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zašto bismo mislili da nas je evolucija opskrbila
13:22
with all the modalities we would need to engage
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sa svime što trebamo kako bismo se bavili
13:25
with other values that there might be?
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drugim vrijednostima koje postoje?
13:27
Imagine a species
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Zamislite vrste
13:29
that just didn't have this neural machinery for processing music.
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koje jednostavno nemaju živčani sklop za obradu glazbe.
13:33
And they would just stare at us with bafflement
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Samo bi nas zbunjeno promatrali
13:36
when we spend time listening to a beautiful performance,
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dok provodimo vrijeme slušajući prekrasnu izvedbu,
13:40
like the one we just heard -- because of people making stupid movements,
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poput one koju smo malo prije čuli – zato što, dok slušamo glazbu, radimo glupe pokrete.
13:42
and they would be really irritated and wouldn't see what we were up to.
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Bili bi iritirani i ne bi shvaćali zašto to činimo.
13:45
But maybe they have another faculty, something else
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No, možda oni imaju neke druge sposobnosti,
13:48
that would seem equally irrational to us,
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nešto što je jednako tako neshvatljivo za nas,
13:51
but they actually tap into some great possible value there.
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čemu oni isto tako pridaju neku posebnu vrijednost.
13:54
But we are just literally deaf to that kind of value.
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A mi smo doslovce gluhi za takvu vrstu podražaja.
13:58
So we could think of adding on different,
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Mogli bismo pokušati dodati neke drukčije,
14:00
new sensory capacities and mental faculties.
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nove senzorne kapacitete i mentalne sposobnosti.
14:04
Bodily functionality and morphology and affective self-control.
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Tjelesne funkcije i morfologija i afektivna samokontrola.
14:09
Greater subjective well-being.
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Subjektivno bolji život.
14:11
Be able to switch between relaxation and activity --
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Biti sposoban prebaciti se brzo između stanja opuštanja i aktivnosti –
14:14
being able to go slow when you need to do that, and to speed up.
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biti sposoban po potrebi usporiti ili ubrzati.
14:18
Able to switch back and forth more easily
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Bilo bi odlično kada bi se tako
14:20
would be a neat thing to be able to do --
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mogli lakše prebacivati –
14:22
easier to achieve the flow state,
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kada bismo brzo mogli doći do stanja
14:24
when you're totally immersed in something you are doing.
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u kojemu smo u potpunosti mislima uronjeni u to što trenutno činimo.
14:28
Conscientiousness and sympathy.
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Svijest i naklonost.
14:30
The ability to -- it's another interesting application
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Sposobnost da.. – to je još jedna vrlo zanimljiva primjena
14:33
that would have large social ramification, perhaps.
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mogućih novih tehnologija oko koje bi se u društvu mogla lomiti koplja.
14:36
If you could actually choose to preserve your romantic attachments to one person,
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Kada biste zapravo mogli odlučiti zadržati romantične osjećaje za neku osobu,
14:42
undiminished through time,
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koji ne bi vremenom blijedili,
14:44
so that wouldn't have to -- love would never have to fade if you didn't want it to.
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tako da ljubav više nikad ne bi morala nestati ako to ne želite..
14:49
That's probably not all that difficult.
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To sve vrlo vjerojatno nije tako komplicirano.
14:52
It might just be a simple hormone or something that could do this.
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Možda se jednostavno samo radi o jednom hormonu kojim bi se to moglo pospješiti.
14:57
It's been done in voles.
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To je već učinjeno kod voluharica.
15:01
You can engineer a prairie vole to become monogamous
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Inžinjeringom možete pospješiti da prerijska voluharica postane monogamna
15:04
when it's naturally polygamous.
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iako je po prirodi poligamna.
15:06
It's just a single gene.
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U pitanju je samo jedan gen.
15:08
Might be more complicated in humans, but perhaps not that much.
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Vjerojatno je kompliciranije kod ljudi, no možda i nije toliko koliko mislimo da jest.
15:10
This is the last picture that I want to --
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Ovo je zadnja slika koju želim... –
15:13
now we've got to use the laser pointer.
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dakle, pokazat ću vam laserom.
15:16
A possible mode of being here would be a way of life --
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Mogući oblik postojanja bi bio oblik života –
15:19
a way of being, experiencing, thinking, seeing,
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način postojanja, doživljavanja, razmišljanja, viđenja
15:23
interacting with the world.
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i interakcije sa ostatkom svijeta.
15:25
Down here in this little corner, here, we have the little sub-space
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Ovdje dolje, u ovom malom kutu, ovdje, vidimo mali krug
15:30
of this larger space that is accessible to human beings --
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koji je dio ovog većeg kruga što prikazuje zapravo dio svijeta koji je pristupačan nama ljudima –
15:34
beings with our biological capacities.
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stvorenjima s našim biološkim kapacitetom.
15:37
It's a part of the space that's accessible to animals;
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Ovo je dio svijeta koji je pristupačan životinjama,
15:40
since we are animals, we are a subset of that.
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budući da smo i mi životinje, naš je krug dio tog kruga.
15:43
And then you can imagine some enhancements of human capacities.
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Zamislite da poboljšamo ljudske biološke kapacitete.
15:47
There would be different modes of being you could experience
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Toliko bismo toga različitog mogli proživjeti kada bismo,
15:50
if you were able to stay alive for, say, 200 years.
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recimo, mogli živjeti 200 godina.
15:53
Then you could live sorts of lives and accumulate wisdoms
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Mogli bismo živjeti drukčijim životom – mogli bismo nakupiti mudrosti
15:57
that are just not possible for humans as we currently are.
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tijekom proživljenih godina, više nego što je to trenutno moguće prosječnom čovjeku.
16:00
So then, you move off to this larger sphere of "human +,"
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Tako bismo mogli doći do ove veće sfere –
16:04
and you could continue that process and eventually
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i tako nastaviti taj proces i
16:07
explore a lot of this larger space of possible modes of being.
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istražiti velik dio ove najveće, nama potpuno nepoznate sfere života.
16:11
Now, why is that a good thing to do?
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Zašto bi to bilo dobro?
16:13
Well, we know already that in this little human circle there,
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Dakle, znamo već kako u ovom malom krugu – koji označava svijet pristupačan čovjeku –
16:17
there are these enormously wonderful and worthwhile modes of being --
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postoje nevjerojatno prekrasni trenutci u životu –
16:21
human life at its best is wonderful.
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život je prekrasan kada je na svom vrhuncu.
16:24
We have no reason to believe that within this much, much larger space
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Nemamo razloga ne vjerovati da u ovom mnogo većem prostoru
16:29
there would not also be extremely worthwhile modes of being,
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postoji nešto što može nezamislivo poboljšati naš način života.
16:33
perhaps ones that would be way beyond our wildest ability
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Možda nešto što ne bismo mogli
16:39
even to imagine or dream about.
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ni zamisliti..
16:41
And so, to fix this third problem,
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I tako – da bismo mogli rješiti ovaj treći veliki problem,
16:43
I think we need -- slowly, carefully, with ethical wisdom and constraint --
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mislim da bismo trebali – polako, strogo, pažljivo i s etičkom mudrošću –
16:49
develop the means that enable us to go out in this larger space and explore it
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razviti sredstva koja nam mogu omogućiti ulazak i istraživanje ovog velikog kruga.
16:54
and find the great values that might hide there.
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I tako istražiti vrijednosti koje se tamo možda kriju.
16:56
Thanks.
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Hvala.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Nick Bostrom - PhilosopherNick Bostrom asks big questions: What should we do, as individuals and as a species, to optimize our long-term prospects? Will humanity’s technological advancements ultimately destroy us?
Why you should listen
Philosopher Nick Bostrom envisioned a future full of human enhancement, nanotechnology and machine intelligence long before they became mainstream concerns. From his famous simulation argument -- which identified some striking implications of rejecting the Matrix-like idea that humans are living in a computer simulation -- to his work on existential risk, Bostrom approaches both the inevitable and the speculative using the tools of philosophy, probability theory, and scientific analysis.
Since 2005, Bostrom has led the Future of Humanity Institute, a research group of mathematicians, philosophers and scientists at Oxford University tasked with investigating the big picture for the human condition and its future. He has been referred to as one of the most important thinkers of our age.
Nick was honored as one of Foreign Policy's 2015 Global Thinkers .
His recent book Superintelligence advances the ominous idea that “the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make.”
Nick Bostrom | Speaker | TED.com