TEDGlobal 2012

Clay Shirky: How the Internet will (one day) transform government

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The open-source world has learned to deal with a flood of new, oftentimes divergent, ideas using hosting services like GitHub -- so why can’t governments? In this rousing talk Clay Shirky shows how democracies can take a lesson from the Internet, to be not just transparent but also to draw on the knowledge of all their citizens.

- Social Media Theorist
Clay Shirky argues that the history of the modern world could be rendered as the history of ways of arguing, where changes in media change what sort of arguments are possible -- with deep social and political implications. Full bio

I want to talk to you today about something
00:15
the open-source programming world can teach democracy,
00:17
but before that, a little preamble.
00:20
Let's start here.
00:22
This is Martha Payne. Martha's a 9-year-old Scot
00:24
who lives in the Council of Argyll and Bute.
00:27
A couple months ago, Payne started a food blog
00:29
called NeverSeconds, and she would take her camera
00:32
with her every day to school to document
00:35
her school lunches.
00:37
Can you spot the vegetable? (Laughter)
00:39
And, as sometimes happens,
00:41
this blog acquired first dozens of readers,
00:44
and then hundreds of readers,
00:47
and then thousands of readers, as people tuned in
00:49
to watch her rate her school lunches,
00:51
including on my favorite category,
00:53
"Pieces of hair found in food." (Laughter)
00:54
This was a zero day. That's good.
00:58
And then two weeks ago yesterday, she posted this.
01:02
A post that read: "Goodbye."
01:05
And she said, "I'm very sorry to tell you this, but
01:07
my head teacher pulled me out of class today and told me
01:10
I'm not allowed to take pictures in the lunch room anymore.
01:13
I really enjoyed doing this.
01:16
Thank you for reading. Goodbye."
01:17
You can guess what happened next, right? (Laughter)
01:21
The outrage was so swift, so voluminous, so unanimous,
01:26
that the Council of Argyll and Bute reversed themselves
01:32
the same day and said, "We would,
01:35
we would never censor a nine-year-old." (Laughter)
01:36
Except, of course, this morning. (Laughter)
01:38
And this brings up the question,
01:41
what made them think they could get away
01:45
with something like that? (Laughter)
01:47
And the answer is, all of human history prior to now.
01:49
(Laughter) So,
01:54
what happens when a medium suddenly puts
01:57
a lot of new ideas into circulation?
02:01
Now, this isn't just a contemporaneous question.
02:05
This is something we've faced several times
02:07
over the last few centuries.
02:09
When the telegraph came along, it was clear
02:11
that it was going to globalize the news industry.
02:13
What would this lead to?
02:15
Well, obviously, it would lead to world peace.
02:16
The television, a medium that allowed us not just to hear
02:20
but see, literally see, what was going on
02:23
elsewhere in the world, what would this lead to?
02:25
World peace. (Laughter)
02:28
The telephone?
02:30
You guessed it: world peace.
02:31
Sorry for the spoiler alert, but no world peace. Not yet.
02:34
Even the printing press, even the printing press
02:38
was assumed to be a tool that was going to enforce
02:41
Catholic intellectual hegemony across Europe.
02:44
Instead, what we got was Martin Luther's 95 Theses,
02:48
the Protestant Reformation, and, you know,
02:50
the Thirty Years' War. All right,
02:52
so what all of these predictions of world peace got right
02:55
is that when a lot of new ideas suddenly
02:59
come into circulation, it changes society.
03:01
What they got exactly wrong was what happens next.
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The more ideas there are in circulation,
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the more ideas there are for any individual to disagree with.
03:10
More media always means more arguing.
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That's what happens when the media's space expands.
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And yet, when we look back on the printing press
03:23
in the early years, we like what happened.
03:26
We are a pro-printing press society.
03:29
So how do we square those two things,
03:32
that it leads to more arguing, but we think it was good?
03:34
And the answer, I think, can be found in things like this.
03:37
This is the cover of "Philosophical Transactions,"
03:40
the first scientific journal ever published in English
03:43
in the middle of the 1600s,
03:46
and it was created by a group of people who had been
03:47
calling themselves "The Invisible College,"
03:49
a group of natural philosophers who only later
03:51
would call themselves scientists,
03:53
and they wanted to improve the way
03:56
natural philosophers argued with each other,
03:59
and they needed to do two things for this.
04:02
They needed openness. They needed to create a norm
04:04
which said, when you do an experiment,
04:06
you have to publish not just your claims,
04:08
but how you did the experiment.
04:11
If you don't tell us how you did it, we won't trust you.
04:12
But the other thing they needed was speed.
04:15
They had to quickly synchronize what
04:17
other natural philosophers knew. Otherwise,
04:20
you couldn't get the right kind of argument going.
04:22
The printing press was clearly the right medium for this,
04:25
but the book was the wrong tool. It was too slow.
04:28
And so they invented the scientific journal
04:31
as a way of synchronizing the argument
04:34
across the community of natural scientists.
04:36
The scientific revolution wasn't created by the printing press.
04:39
It was created by scientists,
04:42
but it couldn't have been created if they didn't have
04:44
a printing press as a tool.
04:46
So what about us? What about our generation,
04:49
and our media revolution, the Internet?
04:51
Well, predictions of world peace? Check. (Laughter)
04:53
More arguing? Gold star on that one. (Laughter)
04:57
(Laughter)
05:05
I mean, YouTube is just a gold mine. (Laughter)
05:07
Better arguing? That's the question.
05:11
So I study social media, which means,
05:15
to a first approximation, I watch people argue.
05:17
And if I had to pick a group that I think is
05:20
our Invisible College, is our generation's collection of people
05:24
trying to take these tools and to press it into service,
05:28
not for more arguments, but for better arguments,
05:31
I'd pick the open-source programmers.
05:34
Programming is a three-way relationship
05:36
between a programmer, some source code,
05:38
and the computer it's meant to run on, but computers
05:41
are such famously inflexible interpreters of instructions
05:43
that it's extraordinarily difficult to write out a set
05:48
of instructions that the computer knows how to execute,
05:52
and that's if one person is writing it.
05:55
Once you get more than one person writing it,
05:57
it's very easy for any two programmers to overwrite
05:59
each other's work if they're working on the same file,
06:02
or to send incompatible instructions
06:05
that simply causes the computer to choke,
06:07
and this problem grows larger
06:09
the more programmers are involved.
06:12
To a first approximation, the problem of managing
06:15
a large software project is the problem
06:18
of keeping this social chaos at bay.
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Now, for decades there has been a canonical solution
06:25
to this problem, which is to use something called
06:27
a "version control system,"
06:29
and a version control system does what is says on the tin.
06:31
It provides a canonical copy of the software
06:33
on a server somewhere.
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The only programmers who can change it are people
06:38
who've specifically been given permission to access it,
06:41
and they're only allowed to access the sub-section of it
06:45
that they have permission to change.
06:48
And when people draw diagrams of version control systems,
06:51
the diagrams always look something like this.
06:54
All right. They look like org charts.
06:56
And you don't have to squint very hard
06:59
to see the political ramifications of a system like this.
07:01
This is feudalism: one owner, many workers.
07:04
Now, that's fine for the commercial software industry.
07:08
It really is Microsoft's Office. It's Adobe's Photoshop.
07:12
The corporation owns the software.
07:17
The programmers come and go.
07:20
But there was one programmer who decided
07:22
that this wasn't the way to work.
07:26
This is Linus Torvalds.
07:29
Torvalds is the most famous open-source programmer,
07:30
created Linux, obviously, and Torvalds looked at the way
07:32
the open-source movement had been dealing with this problem.
07:37
Open-source software, the core promise of the open-source license,
07:41
is that everybody should have access to all the source code
07:46
all the time, but of course, this creates
07:49
the very threat of chaos you have to forestall
07:53
in order to get anything working.
07:56
So most open-source projects just held their noses
07:57
and adopted the feudal management systems.
08:00
But Torvalds said, "No, I'm not going to do that."
08:03
His point of view on this was very clear.
08:05
When you adopt a tool, you also adopt
08:09
the management philosophy embedded in that tool,
08:11
and he wasn't going to adopt anything that didn't work
08:15
the way the Linux community worked.
08:18
And to give you a sense of how enormous
08:20
a decision like this was, this is a map
08:23
of the internal dependencies within Linux,
08:26
within the Linux operating system, which sub-parts
08:30
of the program rely on which other sub-parts to get going.
08:33
This is a tremendously complicated process.
08:37
This is a tremendously complicated program,
08:41
and yet, for years, Torvalds ran this
08:43
not with automated tools but out of his email box.
08:46
People would literally mail him changes
08:50
that they'd agreed on, and he would merge them by hand.
08:52
And then, 15 years after looking at Linux and figuring out
08:57
how the community worked, he said, "I think I know
09:01
how to write a version control system for free people."
09:04
And he called it "Git." Git is distributed version control.
09:08
It has two big differences
09:14
with traditional version control systems.
09:17
The first is that it lives up to the philosophical promise
09:19
of open-source. Everybody who works on a project
09:22
has access to all of the source code all of the time.
09:26
And when people draw diagrams of Git workflow,
09:29
they use drawings that look like this.
09:32
And you don't have to understand what the circles
09:35
and boxes and arrows mean to see that this is a far more
09:37
complicated way of working than is supported
09:41
by ordinary version control systems.
09:44
But this is also the thing that brings the chaos back,
09:47
and this is Git's second big innovation.
09:51
This is a screenshot from GitHub, the premier Git hosting service,
09:54
and every time a programmer uses Git
09:58
to make any important change at all,
10:01
creating a new file, modifying an existing one,
10:05
merging two files, Git creates this kind of signature.
10:08
This long string of numbers and letters here
10:13
is a unique identifier tied to every single change,
10:16
but without any central coordination.
10:21
Every Git system generates this number the same way,
10:24
which means this is a signature tied directly
10:28
and unforgeably to a particular change.
10:32
This has the following effect:
10:35
A programmer in Edinburgh and a programmer in Entebbe
10:37
can both get the same -- a copy of the same piece of software.
10:40
Each of them can make changes and they can merge them
10:44
after the fact even if they didn't know
10:48
of each other's existence beforehand.
10:51
This is cooperation without coordination.
10:54
This is the big change.
10:57
Now, I tell you all of this not to convince you that it's great
11:00
that open-source programmers now have a tool
11:05
that supports their philosophical way of working,
11:09
although I think that is great.
11:12
I tell you all of this because of what I think it means
11:14
for the way communities come together.
11:17
Once Git allowed for cooperation without coordination,
11:19
you start to see communities form
11:26
that are enormously large and complex.
11:28
This is a graph of the Ruby community.
11:33
It's an open-source programming language,
11:35
and all of the interconnections between the people --
11:37
this is now not a software graph, but a people graph,
11:40
all of the interconnections among the people
11:42
working on that project —
11:44
and this doesn't look like an org chart.
11:46
This looks like a dis-org chart, and yet,
11:49
out of this community, but using these tools,
11:53
they can now create something together.
11:55
So there are two good reasons to think that
11:58
this kind of technique can be applied
12:02
to democracies in general and in particular to the law.
12:06
When you make the claim, in fact,
12:11
that something on the Internet is going to be good
12:13
for democracy, you often get this reaction.
12:16
(Music) (Laughter)
12:18
Which is, are you talking about the thing
12:24
with the singing cats? Like, is that the thing
12:26
you think is going to be good for society?
12:29
To which I have to say, here's the thing
12:31
with the singing cats. That always happens.
12:34
And I don't just mean that always happens with the Internet,
12:37
I mean that always happens with media, full stop.
12:39
It did not take long after the rise
12:41
of the commercial printing press before someone
12:43
figured out that erotic novels were a good idea. (Laughter)
12:46
You don't have to have an economic incentive to sell books
12:49
very long before someone says, "Hey, you know what I bet
12:52
people would pay for?" (Laughter)
12:55
It took people another 150 years to even think
12:58
of the scientific journal, right? So -- (Laughter) (Applause)
13:01
So the harnessing by the Invisible College
13:08
of the printing press to create the scientific journal
13:11
was phenomenally important, but it didn't happen big,
13:13
and it didn't happen quick, and it didn't happen fast, so
13:16
if you're going to look for where the change is happening,
13:19
you have to look on the margins.
13:22
So, the law is also dependency-related.
13:24
This is a graph of the U.S. Tax Code,
13:30
and the dependencies of one law on other laws
13:33
for the overall effect.
13:36
So there's that as a site for source code management.
13:39
But there's also the fact that law is another place
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where there are many opinions in circulation,
13:44
but they need to be resolved to one canonical copy,
13:46
and when you go onto GitHub, and you look around,
13:50
there are millions and millions of projects,
13:52
almost all of which are source code,
13:54
but if you look around the edges, you can see people
13:56
experimenting with the political ramifications
13:58
of a system like that.
14:01
Someone put up all the Wikileaked cables
14:02
from the State Department, along with software used
14:04
to interpret them, including my favorite use ever
14:06
of the Cablegate cables, which is a tool for detecting
14:10
naturally occurring haiku in State Department prose.
14:12
(Laughter)
14:15
Right. (Laughter)
14:21
The New York Senate has put up something called
14:24
Open Legislation, also hosting it on GitHub,
14:27
again for all of the reasons of updating and fluidity.
14:29
You can go and pick your Senator and then you can see
14:31
a list of bills they have sponsored.
14:34
Someone going by Divegeek has put up the Utah code,
14:36
the laws of the state of Utah, and they've put it up there
14:40
not just to distribute the code,
14:43
but with the very interesting possibility that this could
14:44
be used to further the development of legislation.
14:47
Somebody put up a tool during the copyright debate
14:52
last year in the Senate, saying, "It's strange that Hollywood
14:56
has more access to Canadian legislators
15:00
than Canadian citizens do. Why don't we use GitHub
15:03
to show them what a citizen-developed bill might look like?"
15:07
And it includes this very evocative screenshot.
15:11
This is a called a "diff," this thing on the right here.
15:15
This shows you, for text that many people are editing,
15:18
when a change was made, who made it,
15:21
and what the change is.
15:23
The stuff in red is the stuff that got deleted.
15:24
The stuff in green is the stuff that got added.
15:26
Programmers take this capability for granted.
15:28
No democracy anywhere in the world offers this feature
15:31
to its citizens for either legislation or for budgets,
15:34
even though those are the things done
15:38
with our consent and with our money.
15:40
Now, I would love to tell you that the fact
15:43
that the open-source programmers have worked out
15:47
a collaborative method that is large scale, distributed,
15:50
cheap, and in sync with the ideals of democracy, I would love
15:54
to tell you that because those tools are in place,
15:57
the innovation is inevitable. But it's not.
15:59
Part of the problem, of course, is just a lack of information.
16:03
Somebody put a question up on Quora saying,
16:06
"Why is it that lawmakers don't use
16:08
distributed version control?"
16:10
This, graphically, was the answer. (Laughter)
16:12
(Laughter) (Applause)
16:16
And that is indeed part of the problem, but only part.
16:18
The bigger problem, of course, is power.
16:23
The people experimenting with participation don't have
16:26
legislative power, and the people who have legislative
16:29
power are not experimenting with participation.
16:32
They are experimenting with openness.
16:35
There's no democracy worth the name that doesn't have
16:37
a transparency move, but transparency is openness
16:39
in only one direction, and being given a dashboard
16:42
without a steering wheel has never been the core promise
16:46
a democracy makes to its citizens.
16:49
So consider this.
16:52
The thing that got Martha Payne's opinions
16:55
out into the public was a piece of technology,
16:57
but the thing that kept them there was political will.
17:01
It was the expectation of the citizens
17:05
that she would not be censored.
17:07
That's now the state we're in with these collaboration tools.
17:10
We have them. We've seen them. They work.
17:16
Can we use them?
17:20
Can we apply the techniques that worked here to this?
17:21
T.S. Eliot once said, "One of the most momentous things
17:26
that can happen to a culture
17:30
is that they acquire a new form of prose."
17:32
I think that's wrong, but -- (Laughter)
17:35
I think it's right for argumentation. Right?
17:38
A momentous thing that can happen to a culture
17:41
is they can acquire a new style of arguing:
17:45
trial by jury, voting, peer review, now this. Right?
17:47
A new form of arguing has been invented in our lifetimes,
17:54
in the last decade, in fact.
17:57
It's large, it's distributed, it's low-cost,
17:59
and it's compatible with the ideals of democracy.
18:03
The question for us now is, are we going to let
18:06
the programmers keep it to themselves?
18:08
Or are we going to try and take it and press it into service
18:10
for society at large?
18:12
Thank you for listening. (Applause)
18:14
(Applause)
18:17
Thank you. Thank you. (Applause)
18:21
Translated by Joseph Geni
Reviewed by Morton Bast

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About the Speaker:

Clay Shirky - Social Media Theorist
Clay Shirky argues that the history of the modern world could be rendered as the history of ways of arguing, where changes in media change what sort of arguments are possible -- with deep social and political implications.

Why you should listen

Clay Shirky's work focuses on the rising usefulness of networks -- using decentralized technologies such as peer-to-peer sharing, wireless, software for social creation, and open-source development. New technologies are enabling new kinds of cooperative structures to flourish as a way of getting things done in business, science, the arts and elsewhere, as an alternative to centralized and institutional structures, which he sees as self-limiting. In his writings and speeches he has argued that "a group is its own worst enemy."

Shirky is an adjunct professor in New York Universityʼs graduate Interactive Telecommunications Program, where he teaches a course named “Social Weather.” Heʼs the author of several books. This spring at the TED headquarters in New York, he gave an impassioned talk against SOPA/PIPA that saw 1 million views in 48 hours.

More profile about the speaker
Clay Shirky | Speaker | TED.com