TEDxSummit
Hans Rosling: Religions and babies
Hans Rosling: Religioner og babyer
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Hans Rosling stillede et spørgsmål: Har nogle religioner en højere fødselsrate end andre? -- Og hvordan vil det påvirke den globale befolkningsvækst? På TEDxSummit i Doha, Qatar, tegner og fortæller han med data over tid og på tværs af religioner. Med hans velkendte humor and skarpe indsigt, kommer Hans til en overraskende konklusion om fødselsraten i verden.
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'm going to talk about religion.
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Jeg vil tale om religion.
00:20
But it's a broad and very delicate subject,
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Men det er et bredt og følsomt emne,
00:25
so I have to limit myself.
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så jeg må begrænse mig.
00:27
And therefore I will limit myself
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Så jeg vil begrænse mig til
00:29
to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality.
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kun at tale om forbindelsen mellem religion og sex.
00:33
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
00:35
This is a very serious talk.
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Dette er en meget seriøst foredrag.
00:38
So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful.
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Så jeg vil tale om, hvad jeg husker som det mest vidunderlige.
00:42
It's when the young couple whisper,
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Det er når et ungt par visker:
00:44
"Tonight we are going to make a baby."
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"I aften skal vi lave en baby."
00:47
My talk will be about the impact of religions
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Mit foredrag vil være om betydningen af religioner
00:53
on the number of babies per woman.
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på antallet af børn per kvinde.
00:57
This is indeed important,
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Dette er bestemt vigtigt
00:58
because everyone understands
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fordi alle forstår
01:00
that there is some sort of limit
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at der er en eller anden slags grænse for
01:02
on how many people we can be on this planet.
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hvor mange mennesker vi kan være på denne planet.
01:05
And there are some people
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Og der er nogle folk
01:07
who say that the world population is growing like this --
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som siger at Verdens befolkning vokser sådan --
01:11
three billion in 1960,
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tre milliarder i 1960,
01:13
seven billion just last year --
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syv milliarder sidste år --
01:15
and it will continue to grow
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og det vil fortsætte med at vokse
01:17
because there are religions that stop women from having few babies,
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fordi der er religioner som forhindrer kvinder i at føde få børn,
01:21
and it may continue like this.
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og det vil fortsætte sådan her.
01:23
To what extent are these people right?
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I hvilket omfang har disse folk ret?
01:27
When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world,
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Da jeg blev født var der mindre en en milliard børn i verden
01:32
and today, 2000, there's almost two billion.
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og i dag er der næsten to milliarder.
01:36
What has happened since,
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Hvad er sket siden,
01:38
and what do the experts predict will happen
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og hvad forventer eksperterne at der vil ske
01:40
with the number of children during this century?
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med antallet af børn i dette århundrede?
01:43
This is a quiz. What do you think?
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Dette er en quiz. Hvad tror I?
01:45
Do you think it will decrease to one billion?
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Tror I at det vil falde til en milliard?
01:49
Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century?
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Vil det forblive det samme og være to milliarder ved århundredets afslutningen?
01:53
Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years,
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Vil antallet af børn stige hvert år,
01:57
or will it continue in the same fast rate
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eller vil det fortsætte med hurtige rate
01:59
and be four billion children up there?
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og der vil være fire millioner tilsidst?
02:02
I will tell you by the end of my speech.
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Jeg vil fortælle jer det til sidst i mit foredrag.
02:05
But now, what does religion have to do with it?
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Men hvad har religion med et at gøre?
02:10
When you want to classify religion,
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Når man skal afgrænse religioner,
02:13
it's more difficult than you think.
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er det sværere end man tror.
02:14
You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this.
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Man kan bruge Wikipedia og det første kort du ser er dette.
02:17
It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion,
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Det opdeler mellem Abrahamitiske religioner og østlige religioner,
02:23
but that's not detailed enough.
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men det er ikke detaljeret nok.
02:25
So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map.
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Så vi forsatte med at kigge i Wikipedia og fandt dette kort.
02:28
But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism
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Men det underinddeler kristendommen, islam og budisme
02:33
into many subgroups,
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i mange undergrupper,
02:35
which was too detailed.
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hvilket var for detaljeret.
02:36
Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map,
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Derfor lavede vi vores eget kort hos Gapminder,
02:40
and it looks like this.
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som ser sådan ud.
02:42
Each country's a bubble.
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Hvert land er en boble.
02:45
The size is the population -- big China, big India here.
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Størrelsen er befolkningen -- her er store Kina, store Indien.
02:49
And the color now is the majority religion.
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Og farven er flertalsreligionen.
02:53
It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people
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Det er religionen som mere end 50 % af folket
02:56
say that they belong.
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siger de tilhører.
02:57
It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries.
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Der er østlige religioner i Indien, Kina og de omkringliggende asiatiske lande.
03:02
Islam is the majority religion
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Islam er flertalsreligion
03:04
all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East,
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hele vejen fra Atlanterhavet gennem Mellemøsten,
03:08
Southern Europe and through Asia
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Sydeuropa og gennem Asien
03:10
all the way to Indonesia.
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hele vejen til Indonesien.
03:12
That's where we find Islamic majority.
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Det er hvor vi finder den muslimske majoritet.
03:15
And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue.
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Og hvor kristne er i flertal, ser vi i disse lande. De er blå.
03:20
And that is most countries in America and Europe,
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Og det er de fleste lande i Amerika og Europa,
03:24
many countries in Africa and a few in Asia.
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mange lande i Afrika og få i Asien.
03:28
The white here are countries which cannot be classified,
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De hvide er lande som ikke kan blive klassificeret,
03:30
because one religion does not reach 50 percent
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fordi en religion ikke når 50 %
03:33
or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason.
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eller der er tvivl om data eller af en anden grund.
03:36
So we were careful with that.
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Så vi kan være forsigtige med det.
03:38
So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot.
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Så vær overbærende med vores forsimplinger når jeg viser jer denne figur.
03:42
This is in 1960.
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Dette er 1960.
03:44
And now I show the number of babies per woman here:
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Og jeg viser jer antallet af babyer per kvinde --
03:48
two, four or six --
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to, fire eller seks --
03:51
many babies, few babies.
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mange babyer, få babyer.
03:53
And here the income per person in comparable dollars.
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Og her er indkomst per person i sammenlignelige dollars.
03:56
The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first
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Grunden er at mange mennesker siger at du først skal være rig
04:00
before you get few babies.
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før du får få babyer.
04:01
So low income here, high income there.
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Så lav indkomst her, høj indkomst her.
04:05
And indeed in 1960,
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Og helt sikkert i 1960
04:07
you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies.
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der skulle du være en rig kristen for at have få babyer.
04:09
The exception was Japan.
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Undtagelsen var Japan.
04:12
Japan here was regarded as an exception.
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Japan blev betragtet som en undtagelse.
04:15
Otherwise it was only Christian countries.
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På den anden side var der kun kristne lande.
04:17
But there was also many Christian countries
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Men der var også mange kristne lande
04:19
that had six to seven babies per woman.
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som havde seks til syv babyer per kvinde.
04:22
But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa.
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men de var i Latinamerika eller de var i Afrika.
04:27
And countries with Islam as the majority religion,
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Og i lande hvor Islam var flertalsreligion,
04:31
all of them almost had six to seven children per woman,
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der havde alle næsten seks eller syv børn per kvinde
04:36
irregardless of the income level.
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uanset indkomstniveau.
04:38
And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level.
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Ligeledes havde alle de østlige religioner undtagen Japan det samme niveau.
04:43
Now let's see what has happened in the world.
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Nå lad os se hvad der skete i verden.
04:45
I start the world, and here we go.
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Jeg starter verden og nu er vi i gang.
04:46
Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer,
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Nu 1962 -- I kan se vi bliver lidt rigere,
04:50
but the number of babies per woman is falling?
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men er antallet af babyer faldende?
04:52
Look at China. They're falling fairly fast.
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Se på Kina. Det falder temmelig hurtigt.
04:55
And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down,
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Og alle de muslimske lande på tværs af indkomst er på vej ned
04:59
as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range.
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det samme gør de kristne lande i mellemindkomst området.
05:04
And when we enter into this century,
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Og da vi når til dette århundrede,
05:07
you'll find more than half of mankind down here.
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finder I at halvdelen af menneskeheden her nede.
05:10
And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans
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Og i 2010, vi er faktisk 80 procent af menneskerne
05:15
who live in countries with about two children per woman.
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som bor i et land med omkring to børn per kvinde.
05:19
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
05:23
It's a quite amazing development which has happened.
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Det er en forbløffende udvikling som er sket.
05:27
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
05:28
And these are countries from United States here,
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Og disse lande fra USA her
05:31
with $40,000 per capita,
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med 40.000$ per person,
05:34
France, Russia, Iran,
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Frankrig, Rusland, Iran,
05:37
Mexico, Turkey, Algeria,
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Mexico, Tyrkiet, Algeriet,
05:40
Indonesia, India
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Indonesien, Indien
05:42
and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam,
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og hele vejen til Bangladesh og Vietnam,
05:45
which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States
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som har mindre end 5% af den indkomst per person som i USA
05:49
and the same amount of babies per woman.
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og med samme antal børn per kvinde.
05:52
I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman
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Jeg kan fortælle jer at data om antallet af børn per kvinde
05:56
is surprisingly good in all countries.
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er overraskende gode i alle lande.
05:58
We get that from the census data.
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Vi får det fra folketællinger.
06:00
It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful.
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Der er ingen af disse statistiker som er tvivlsomme.
06:03
So what we can conclude
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Så hvad vi kan konkludere
06:04
is you don't have to get rich to have few children.
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er at du behøves ikke at være rig for at få få børn.
06:07
It has happened across the world.
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Det sker over hele verdenen.
06:09
And then when we look at religions,
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Og når vi kigger på religioner,
06:12
we can see that the Eastern religions,
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kan vi se at hos østlige religioner
06:15
indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion
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er der ikke et eneste land med flertal af disse religioner
06:18
that has more than three children.
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som har mere end tre børn.
06:19
Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity,
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Derimod med Islam eller kristendom som flertalsreligion,
06:24
you see countries all the way.
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er der lande hele vejen.
06:25
But there's no major difference.
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men der er ingen stor forskel.
06:27
There's no major difference between these religions.
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Der er ingen væsentlig forskel mellem disse religioner.
06:31
There is a difference with income.
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Der er en forskel i indkomst.
06:33
The countries which have many babies per woman here,
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Der er lande med mange babyer per kvinde her,
06:37
they have quite low income.
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der har en meget lav indkomst.
06:39
Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa.
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De fleste af dem i Afrika syd for Sahara.
06:42
But there are also countries here
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Men der er også lande her
06:45
like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea,
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som Guatemala, Papua New Guinea,
06:49
like Yemen and Afghanistan.
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som Yemen og Afghanistan.
06:52
Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo,
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Mange tænker at Afghanistan her og Congo,
06:56
which have suffered severe conflicts,
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som har lidt under alvorlige konflikter,
06:59
that they don't have fast population growth.
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at de ikke har en hurtig befolkningsvækst.
07:02
It's the other way around.
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Det er den anden vej rundt.
07:04
In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates
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I verden i dag, er det de lande som har de højeste dødelighedsrate.
07:08
that have the fastest population growth.
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som har den højeste befolkningsvækst.
07:10
Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child.
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Fordi et dødsfald hos et barn bliver kompenseret endnu et barn.
07:14
These countries have six children per woman.
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Disse lande har seks børn per kvinde.
07:17
They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman.
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De har en sørgelig døds-rate af et til to børn per kvinde.
07:21
But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million.
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Men 30 år frem, Afghanistan vil vokse fra 30 millioner til 60 millioner.
07:25
Congo will go from 60 to 120.
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Congo vil gå fra 60 til 120.
07:28
That's where we have the fast population growth.
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Det er hvor vi har den store befolkningsvækst.
07:31
And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not.
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Og mange tror der ingen befolkningsvækst er i disse lande.
07:35
Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country,
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Lad mig sammenligne Senegal, et muslimsk domineret land,
07:39
with a Christian dominated country, Ghana.
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med et kristent domineret land, Ghana.
07:41
I take them backwards here to their independence,
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Jeg tager den tilbage til deres uafhængighed,
07:45
when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s.
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Da de var her oppe i begyndelsen af 1960'erne.
07:49
Just look what they have done.
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Se hvad de har gjort.
07:51
It's an amazing improvement,
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Det er en imponerende forbedring,
07:52
from seven children per woman,
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fra syv børn per kvinde
07:55
they've gone all the way down to between four and five.
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har de taget turen hele vejen ned til mellem fire og fem.
07:58
It's a tremendous improvement.
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Det er en gevaldig forbedring.
07:59
So what does it take?
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Så hvad skal der til?
08:01
Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries.
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Vi ved ganske godt hvad der behøves i disse lande.
08:04
You need to have children to survive.
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Man skal have børnene til at overleve.
08:07
You need to get out of the deepest poverty
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Man skal ud af den dybeste fattigdom
08:09
so children are not of importance for work in the family.
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så børn ikke er nødvendige som arbejdskraft i familien.
08:13
You need to have access to some family planning.
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man skal have adgang til familieplanlægning.
08:16
And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor.
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Og man har behov for en femte faktor, som muligvis er den vigtigste.
08:20
But let me illustrate that fourth factor
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Lad mig illustrere den femte faktor
08:23
by looking at Qatar.
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ved at kigge på Qatar.
08:25
Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today.
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Her har vi Qatar i dag og her har vi Bangladesh i dag.
08:29
If I take these countries back to the years of their independence,
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Hvis jeg tager disse lande tilbage til året for deres uafhængighed,
08:33
which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 --
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som er næsten det samme år -- 71, 72 --
08:36
it's a quite amazing development which had happened.
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så er det en forbløffende udvikling som er sket.
08:40
Look at Bangladesh and Qatar.
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Se på Bangladesh og Qatar.
08:41
With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop
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Med så forskellige indkomster, det er næsten det samme fald
08:45
in number of babies per woman.
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i antal babyer per kvinde.
08:47
And what is the reason in Qatar?
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Og hvad er forklaringen i Qatar?
08:49
Well I do as I always do.
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Jeg gør som jeg altid gør.
08:50
I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage --
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Jeg gik til det statistiske kontor i Qatar, til deres hjemmeside --
08:54
It's a very good webpage. I recommend it --
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det er en meget god hjemmeside. Jeg anbefaler den --
08:56
and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here --
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og jeg kiggede rundt -- ja, du kan have en masse sjov her --
09:03
and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends.
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og leveret gratis, jeg fandt Qatars sociale udvikling.
09:07
Very interesting. Lots to read.
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Meget interessant. Masser at læse.
09:09
I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman.
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Jeg fandt fertilitet ved fødslen og kiggede på den totale fertilitetsrate for kvinder.
09:14
These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar,
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De er fagfolk og eksperter i en statslig myndighed i Qatar
09:17
and they say the most important factors are:
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og de siger at de mest betydende faktorer er:
09:20
"Increased age at first marriage,
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"Højere alder ved første ægteskab,
09:22
increased educational level of Qatari woman
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højere uddannelsesniveau hos Qatars kvinder
09:25
and more women integrated in the labor force."
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og flere kvinder på arbejdsmarkedet."
09:28
I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more.
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Jeg kunne ikke være mere enig. Videnskaben kunne ikke være mere enig.
09:32
This is a country that indeed has gone through
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Dette er et land som bestemt har gennemgået
09:34
a very, very interesting modernization.
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en meget, meget interessant modernisering.
09:38
So what it is, is these four:
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Så hvad det handler om er disse fire:
09:41
Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work,
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Børn skal overleve, børn skal ikke være nødvendige for arbejde,
09:44
women should get education and join the labor force
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Kvinder skal have en uddannelse og komme ud på arbejdsmarkedet
09:47
and family planning should be accessible.
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og familieplanlægning skal være tilstede.
09:49
Now look again at this.
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Kig igen på dette.
09:52
The average number of children in the world
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Det gennemsnitlige antal børn i verden
09:55
is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today.
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er som i Colombia -- det er 2,4 i dag.
09:58
There are countries up here which are very poor.
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Det er lande her oppe som er meget fattige.
10:01
And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed.
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Og det er her familieplanlægning og bedre overlevelse hos børn er nødvendig.
10:05
I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk.
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Jeg vil stærkt anbefale Melinda Gates' sidste TEDTalk.
10:09
And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman.
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Og hernede er der mange lande med mindre end to børn per kvinde.
10:14
So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz,
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Så jeg går nu tilbage og giver jer svaret på quizzen,
10:18
it's two.
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det er to.
10:19
We have reached peak child.
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Vi har nået børne-toppen.
10:22
The number of children is not growing any longer in the world.
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Antallet af børn i verden stiger ikke længere.
10:25
We are still debating peak oil,
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Vi diskutere stadigvæk om olieproduktionen er toppet.
10:27
but we have definitely reached peak child.
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men vi har bestemt nået børne-toppen.
10:30
And the world population will stop growing.
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Og jorden befolkning vil holde op med at vokse.
10:32
The United Nations Population Division has said
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FNs befolkningsafdeling har sagt
10:35
it will stop growing at 10 billion.
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at den vil stoppe af vokse ved 10 milliarder.
10:37
But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow?
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Men hvorfor vokser den når antallet af børn ikke vokser?
10:41
Well I will show you here.
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Det vil jeg vise jer.
10:43
I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came.
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Jeg vil bruge disse papkasser, som jeres notesbøger var i.
10:47
They are quite useful for educational purposes.
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Det er ganske glimrende til uddannelsesmæssige formål.
10:51
Each card box is one billion people.
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Hver papkasse er en milliard mennesker.
10:54
And there are two billion children in the world.
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Og der er to milliarder børn i verden.
10:57
There are two billion young people between 15 and 30.
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der er to milliarder mellem 15 og 30.
11:04
These are rounded numbers.
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dette er runde tal.
11:05
Then there is one billion between 30 and 45,
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Der er en milliard 30 og 45,
11:10
almost one between 45 and 60.
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og ca en mellem 45 og 60.
11:14
And then it's my box.
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Og dette er min kasse.
11:15
This is me: 60-plus.
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Dette er mig 60+.
11:18
We are here on top.
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Vi er i toppen.
11:20
So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up."
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Så det som vil ske er hvad vi kalder den store opfyldning.
11:25
You can see that it's like three billion missing here.
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Som I kan se mangler der tre milliarder her.
11:28
They are not missing because they've died; they were never born.
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De mangler ikke fordi de er døde. De var aldrig født.
11:32
Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born
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Fordi før 1980 blev der født meget færre mennesker
11:36
than there were during the last 30 years.
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en der blev de sidste 30 år.
11:39
So what will happen now is quite straightforward.
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Så det som vil ske er meget lige til.
11:42
The old, sadly, we will die.
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De gamle, sørgeligt nok, vil dø.
11:45
The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children.
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Resten af jer vil blive ældre og I vil få to milliarder børn.
11:50
Then the old will die.
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Så dør de gamle.
11:52
The rest will grow older and get two billion children.
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Resten vil blive ældre og få to milliarder børn.
11:56
And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children.
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Og igen ældes de gamle og vil dø og I vil få to milliarder børn.
12:02
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
12:04
This is the great fill-up.
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Dette er den store opfyldning.
12:08
It's inevitable.
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Det er uafvendeligt.
12:11
And can you see that this increase took place
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Og I kan se at denne forøgelse skete
12:13
without life getting longer and without adding children?
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uden at livet blev længere og uden flere børn.
12:18
Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman.
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Religion har meget lidt at gøre med antallet af børn per kvinde.
12:23
All the religions in the world are fully capable
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Alle religioner i verden har evnen til at
12:26
to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.
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bibeholde deres værdier og tilpasse sig denne nye verden.
12:32
And we will be just 10 billion in this world,
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Og vi vil blive bare 10 milliarder i denne verden,
12:37
if the poorest people get out of poverty,
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hvis de fattigste kommer ud af fattigdomen,
12:40
their children survive, they get access to family planning.
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deres børn overlever, de får adgang til familieplanlægning.
12:44
That is needed.
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Det skal der til.
12:45
But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more.
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Men det er uafvendeligt at vi bliver 3 milliarder flere.
12:51
So when you discuss and when you plan
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Så når man diskutere og man planlægger
12:54
for the resources and the energy needed for the future,
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for ressource- og energibehovet i fremtiden,
12:58
for human beings on this planet,
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for mennesker på denne planet,
13:00
you have to plan for 10 billion.
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så må man planlægge for 10 milliarder.
13:02
Thank you very much.
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Mange tak.
13:04
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com