TEDGlobal 2010
Eric Berlow: Simplifying complexity
Eric Berlow: Kako složenost vodi jednostavnosti
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Ekolog Eric Berlow se ne osjeća zatrpanim kada je suočen sa složenim sustavima. Zna da više informacija vodi boljem, jednostavnijem rješenju. Ilustrirajući upute i trikove za razbijanje velikih problema, on destilira prenatrpanu mapu informacija SAD-ove strategije u Afganistanu na nekoliko ključnih točaka.
Eric Berlow - Ecologist
TED Senior Fellow Eric Berlow studies ecology and networks, exposing the interconnectedness of our ecosystems with climate change, government, corporations and more. Full bio
TED Senior Fellow Eric Berlow studies ecology and networks, exposing the interconnectedness of our ecosystems with climate change, government, corporations and more. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Do you ever feel completely overwhelmed
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Osjećate li se ikada potpuno zatrpano
00:17
when you're faced with a complex problem?
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kada ste suočeni sa složenim problemom?
00:20
Well, I hope to change that in less than three minutes.
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Nadam se kako ću uspjeti to promijeniti za manje od tri minute.
00:23
So, I hope to convince you that complex
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Nadam se da ću vas uvjeriti kako složeno
00:25
doesn't always equal complicated.
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nije uvijek jednako kompliciranom.
00:27
So for me, a well-crafted baguette, fresh out of the oven,
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Za mene, dobro osmišljen baget, svježi iz peći,
00:30
is complex,
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je složen,
00:32
but a curry onion green olive poppy cheese bread
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ali kruh od karija sa zelenom maslinom, makom i sirom
00:34
is complicated.
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je kompliciran.
00:37
I'm an ecologist, and I study complexity. I love complexity.
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Ja sam ekolog, i proučavam složenost. Volim složenost.
00:40
And I study that in the natural world, the interconnectedness of species.
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I proučavam to u prirodi, međupovezanost vrsta.
00:43
So here's a food web,
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Ovo je prehrambena mreža,
00:45
or a map of feeding links between species
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ili mapa hranidbenih poveznica između vrsta
00:47
that live in Alpine Lakes in the mountains of California.
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koje žive u alpskim jezerima u planinama Kalifornije.
00:50
And this is what happens to that food web
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A ovo se događa s tom prehrambenom mrežom
00:52
when it's stocked with non-native fish that never lived there before.
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kada je napunjena sa stranim ribama koje nikad prije nisu ovdje živjele.
00:54
All the grayed-out species disappear.
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Sve vrste označene sivom bojom nestaju.
00:56
Some are actually on the brink of extinction.
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Neke su doista na rubu izumiranja.
00:58
And lakes with fish have more mosquitos, even though they eat them.
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A jezera s ribama imaju više komaraca, iako ih one jedu.
01:01
These effects were all unanticipated,
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Svi ti efekti su bili nepredviđeni,
01:03
and yet we're discovering they're predictable.
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a ipak otkrivamo kako su predvidivi.
01:05
So I want to share with you a couple key insights
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Stoga s vama želim podijeliti par ključnih uvida
01:07
about complexity we're learning from studying nature
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o složenosti koje smo naučili proučavajući prirodu
01:09
that maybe are applicable to other problems.
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koji se možda mogu primjeniti na druge probleme.
01:13
First is the simple power of good visualization tools
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Prvo je jednostavna moć dobrih vizualizacijskih alata
01:15
to help untangle complexity
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koji pomažu razmrsiti složenost
01:17
and just encourage you to ask questions you didn't think of before.
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i potaknuti vas da postavite pitanja o kojima niste prije razmišljali.
01:20
For example, you could plot the flow of carbon
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Na primjer, možete planirati tok ugljika
01:23
through corporate supply chains in a corporate ecosystem,
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kroz korporativni lanac dobave u korporativnom ekosustavu,
01:26
or the interconnections of habitat patches
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ili međupovezanost određenih staništa
01:28
for endangered species in Yosemite National Park.
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za ugrožene vrste u Yosemite nacionalnom parku.
01:31
The next thing is that if you want to predict
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Iduća stvar jest, ako želite predvidjeti
01:33
the effect of one species on another,
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učinak jedne vrste na drugu,
01:35
if you focus only on that link,
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ukoliko se fokusirate samo na tu vezu,
01:37
and then you black box the rest,
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i ostavite sve ostalo da prođe kroz crnu kutiju,
01:39
it's actually less predictable
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zapravo je manje predvidivo
01:41
than if you step back, consider the entire system -- all the species, all the links --
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nego kad bi napravili korak unatrag, uzeli u obzir cijeli sustav -- sve vrste, sve veze --
01:44
and from that place,
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i iz tog mjesta,
01:46
hone in on the sphere of influence that matters most.
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fokusirali se na sferu utjecaja koja ima najviše znači.
01:48
And we're discovering, with our research,
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A ono što otkrivamo s našim istraživanjem,
01:50
that's often very local to the node you care about
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jest da je blizina čvora do kojeg vam je stalo
01:52
within one or two degrees.
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unutar raspona od jednog ili dva stupnja.
01:54
So the more you step back, embrace complexity,
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Što više koraka zakoračite unatrag, prihvatite složenost,
01:56
the better chance you have of finding simple answers,
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imate bolje šanse pronalaska jednostavnih odgovora,
01:58
and it's often different than the simple answer that you started with.
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a to je često različito od jednostavnog odgovora s kojim ste započeli.
02:02
So let's switch gears and look at a really complex problem
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Promijenimo brzine i pogledajmo stvarno složen problem,
02:05
courtesy of the U.S. government.
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uz ljubaznost vlade SAD-a.
02:08
This is a diagram of the U.S. counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.
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Ovo je dijagram strategije mjera protiv pobune SAD-a u Afganistanu.
02:11
It was front page of the New York Times a couple months ago.
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Bilo je na prvoj stranici New York Times-a prije par mjeseci --
02:14
Instantly ridiculed by the media
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i odmah je bilo ismijano od strane medija
02:16
for being so crazy complicated.
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zbog luđačke kompliciranosti.
02:18
And the stated goal was to increase popular support
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Utvrđen cilj je bio povećati podršku naroda
02:20
for the Afghan government.
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za vladu Afganistana.
02:22
Clearly a complex problem,
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Očito složen problem,
02:24
but is it complicated?
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no je li kompliciran?
02:26
Well, when I saw this in the front page of the Times,
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Kada sam to vidio na prvoj stranici Times-a,
02:28
I thought, "Great. Finally something I can relate to.
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pomislio sam, "Odlično. Konačno nešto s čime se mogu poistovjetiti.
02:30
I can sink my teeth into this."
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Mogu zagristi u to."
02:32
So let's do it. So here we go for the first time ever,
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Dakle, napravimo to. Ovo je prvi put uopće,
02:35
a world premiere view of this spaghetti diagram as an ordered network.
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svjetska premijera prikaza špageta dijagrama kao posložene mreže.
02:38
The circled node is the one we're trying to influence --
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Zaokruženi čvor je onaj na koji pokušavamo utjecati --
02:40
popular support for the government.
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podrška naroda za vladu.
02:42
And so now we can look one degrees, two degrees,
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Tako sada možemo gledati jedan stupanj, dva stupnja,
02:44
three degrees away from that node
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tri stupnja podalje od čvora
02:46
and eliminate three-quarters of the diagram outside that sphere of influence.
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i eliminirati tri četvrtine dijagrama koji se nalazi izvan sfere utjecaja.
02:49
Within that sphere,
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Unutar te sfere,
02:51
most of those nodes are not actionable, like the harshness of the terrain,
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većina tih čvorova nije vezana uz nikakvu aktivnost, kao nepristupačan teren,
02:54
and a very small minority are actual military actions.
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a vrlo mala manjina su zapravo vojne akcije.
02:57
Most are non-violent and they fall into two broad categories:
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Većina ih je nenasilna i mogu se svrstati u dvije široke kategorije:
03:01
active engagement with ethnic rivalries and religious beliefs
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aktivno uključivanje u etničke sukobe i vjerska uvjerenja
03:04
and fair, transparent economic development
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i pravedan, transparentan ekonomski razvoj
03:06
and provisioning of services.
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i nabava usluga.
03:08
I don't know about this, but this is what I can decipher from this diagram
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Ne znam puno o tome, ali to je što mogu dešifrirati iz tog dijagrama
03:11
in 24 seconds.
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u 24 sekunde.
03:13
When you see a diagram like this, I don't want you to be afraid.
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Kada vidite dijagram nalik ovome, ne želim da se uplašite.
03:15
I want you to be excited. I want you to be relieved.
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Želim da budete uzbuđeni. Želim da se osjećate olakšano.
03:18
Because simple answers may emerge.
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Jer bi mogli nastati jednostavni odgovori.
03:20
We're discovering in nature that simplicity often lies
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U prirodi otkrivamo kako jednostavnost često leži
03:22
on the other side of complexity.
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s druge strane složenosti.
03:24
So for any problem, the more you can zoom out and embrace complexity,
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Dakle, za svaki problem, što više se možete odmaknuti i prihvatiti složenost,
03:27
the better chance you have of zooming in
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to imate veće šanse za približavanje
03:29
on the simple details that matter most.
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jednostavnim detaljima koji najviše znače.
03:31
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
03:33
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Eric Berlow - EcologistTED Senior Fellow Eric Berlow studies ecology and networks, exposing the interconnectedness of our ecosystems with climate change, government, corporations and more.
Why you should listen
Eric Berlow is an ecologist and network scientist who specializes in not specializing. A TED Senior Fellow, Berlow is recognized for his research on food webs and ecological networks and for creative approaches to complex problems. He was the founding director of the University of California's first environmental science center inside Yosemite National Park, where he continues to develop data-driven approaches to managing natural ecosystems.
In 2012 Berlow founded Vibrant Data Labs, which builds tools to use data for social good. Berlow's current projects range from helping spark an egalitarian personal data economy to protecting endangered amphibians in Yosemite to crowd-sourcing novel insights about human creativity. Berlow holds a Ph.D. from Oregon State University in marine ecology.
Eric Berlow | Speaker | TED.com