TEDSalon NY2013
Amy Webb: How I hacked online dating
Amy Webb: Kako sam provalila online dating
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Amy Webb nije imala sreće s vezama preko Interneta. Osobe koje su joj se sviđale nisu joj odgovarale na poruke, a njen je profil privlačio je nezanimljive (i gore). Tako da je, poput svakog ljubitelja podataka, počela izrađivati proračunsku tablicu. Poslušajte priču kako je izanalizirala svoje traganje za partnerom preko Interneta - s frustrirajućim, smiješnim i izazovnim rezultatima.
Amy Webb - Founder and CEO, Future Today Institute
Amy Webb is a futurist and founder of the Future Today Institute, and is the award-winning author of three books, including “Data: A Love Story” and “The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream.” Full bio
Amy Webb is a futurist and founder of the Future Today Institute, and is the award-winning author of three books, including “Data: A Love Story” and “The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream.” Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So my name is Amy Webb,
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Dakle, moje ime je Amy Webb,
00:15
and a few years ago I found myself at the end
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i prije nekoliko godina sam se našla na kraju
00:17
of yet another fantastic relationship
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još jedne fantastične veze
00:20
that came burning down in a spectacular fashion.
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koja se raspala na spektakularan način.
00:23
And I thought, you know, what's wrong with me?
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I pitala sam se, znate,
što nije u redu sa mnom?
što nije u redu sa mnom?
00:26
I don't understand why this keeps happening.
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Ne razumijem zašto mi se to stalno događa.
00:28
So I asked everybody in my life
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Tako da sam pitala sve ljude koje znam,
00:30
what they thought.
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što o tome misle?
00:32
I turned to my grandmother,
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Obratila sam se baki,
00:33
who always had plenty of advice,
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koja je uvijek imala savjeta napretek,
00:36
and she said, "Stop being so picky.
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i rekla mi je: "Nemoj biti tako izbirljiva.
00:39
You've got to date around.
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Trebaš ići na spojeve.
00:40
And most importantly,
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I ono najvažnije,
00:42
true love will find you when you least expect it."
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prava ljubav naći će te kad ćeš joj se najmanje nadati."
00:46
Now as it turns out,
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Međutim, ispada kako
00:48
I'm somebody who thinks a lot about data,
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sam ja osoba koja puno razmišlja o podatcima,
00:50
as you'll soon find.
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što ćete ubrzo i sami vidjeti.
00:52
I am constantly swimming in numbers
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Neprestano plivam u brojkama,
00:55
and formulas and charts.
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formulama i grafikonima.
00:56
I also have a very tight-knit family,
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Osim toga, imam jako povezanu obitelj
00:59
and I'm very, very close with my sister,
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i vrlo sam bliska sa svojom sestrom.
01:01
and as a result, I wanted to have
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Kao rezultat svega toga, htjela sam imati
01:02
the same type of family when I grew up.
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istu takvu obitelj kada odrastem.
01:04
So I'm at the end of this bad breakup,
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I tako, na kraju sam tog gadnog prekida,
01:06
I'm 30 years old,
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imam 30 godina,
01:08
I figure I'm probably going to have
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i shvatim kako ću vjerojatno trebati
01:09
to date somebody for about six months
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hodati s nekim oko šest mjeseci
01:11
before I'm ready to get monogamous
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prije nego budem bila spremna za monogamnu vezu
01:13
and before we can sort of cohabitate,
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i prije no što počnemo živjeti zajedno,
01:15
and we have to have that happen for a while before we can get engaged.
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i da će to trebati trajati neko vrijeme
prije nego se zaručimo.
prije nego se zaručimo.
01:18
And if I want to start having children by the time I'm 35,
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I ako želim rađati djecu do 35. godine,
01:21
that meant that I would have had to have been
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to je značilo da sam trebala već
01:23
on my way to marriage five years ago.
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prije pet godina biti na svom putu prema braku.
01:26
So that wasn't going to work.
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Tako da taj plan neće upaliti.
01:27
If my strategy was to least-expect my way
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Ako je moja strategija bila
ta da se najmanje nadam
ta da se najmanje nadam
01:30
into true love, then the variable that I had
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pravoj ljubavi,
onda je varijabla kojom bih se bavila
onda je varijabla kojom bih se bavila
01:32
to deal with was serendipity.
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bila - slučajno otkriće.
01:34
In short, I was trying to figure out, well,
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Ukratko, trudila sam se shvatiti
01:36
what's the probability of my finding Mr. Right?
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koja je vjerojatnost da pronađem gospodina Pravoga?
01:40
Well, at the time I was living in the city of Philadelphia,
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U to vrijeme sam živjela u Philadelphiji,
01:42
and it's a big city, and I figured,
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koja je veliki grad, i smatrala sam
01:45
in this entire place, there are lots of possibilities.
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da tamo ima mnogo mogućnosti.
01:48
So again, I started doing some math.
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Tako da sam ponovo počela računati.
01:50
Population of Philadelphia: It has 1.5 million people.
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Populacija Philadelpije je 1,5 milijuna ljudi.
01:54
I figure about half of that are men,
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Pretpostavila sam da su polovica od toga muškarci,
01:55
so that takes the number down to 750,000.
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tako da se broj smanjuje na 750.000.
01:58
I'm looking for a guy between the ages of 30 and 36,
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Tražila sam tipa koji ima između 30 i 36 godina,
02:01
which was only four percent of the population,
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što je bilo samo četiri posto populacije,
02:04
so now I'm dealing with the possibility of 30,000 men.
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tako da sam sada baratala s mogućnošću od 30.000 muškaraca.
02:07
I was looking for somebody who was Jewish,
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Tražila sam nekoga tko je Židov,
02:08
because that's what I am and that was important to me.
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jer sam i sama Židovka i to mi je bilo bitno.
02:11
That's only 2.3 percent of the population.
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To je bilo samo 2,3 posto populacije.
02:13
I figure I'm attracted to maybe one out of 10
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Pretpostavljala sam da će me privući jedan od desetorice
02:15
of those men,
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tih muškaraca,
02:18
and there was no way I was going
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i nije bilo šanse da ću se spetljati
02:20
to deal with somebody who was an avid golfer.
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s nekime tko je entuzijastičan golfer.
02:22
So that basically meant there were 35 men for me
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To je u osnovi značilo kako za mene postoje 35 muškaraca
02:25
that I could possibly date
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s kojima sam mogla otići na spoj
02:28
in the entire city of Philadelphia.
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u cijeloj Philadelphiji.
02:32
In the meantime, my very large Jewish family
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U međuvremenu, moja velika židovska obitelj
02:35
was already all married and well on their way
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sva je već bila poudavana i oženjena
te na dobrom putu
te na dobrom putu
02:38
to having lots and lots of children,
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da dobiju mnogo djece.
02:40
and I felt like I was under tremendous peer pressure
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Imala sam osjećaj da sam pod ogromnim pritiskom vršnjaka
02:42
to get my life going already.
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da se konačno pokrenem.
02:44
So if I have two possible strategies at this point
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Tako da sam u tom trenu imala dvije moguće strategije,
02:46
I'm sort of figuring out.
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malo sam razmišljala.
02:47
One, I can take my grandmother's advice
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Prvo, mogu poslušati bakin savjet
02:50
and sort of least-expect my way
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i najmanje se nadati
02:52
into maybe bumping into the one
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da ću sresti jednog
02:55
out of 35 possible men in the entire
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od 35 mogućih muškaraca u cijeloj
02:57
1.5 million-person city of Philadelphia,
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1,5 milijunskoj Philadelphiji,
03:01
or I could try online dating.
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ili bih mogla pokušati pronaći partnera preko interneta.
03:04
Now, I like the idea of online dating,
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Sviđa mi se ideja online datinga,
03:06
because it's predicated on an algorithm,
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jer se temelji na algoritmu,
03:08
and that's really just a simple way of saying
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što bi drugim riječima značilo
03:10
I've got a problem, I'm going to use some data,
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da imam problem, uzeti ću neke podatke,
03:12
run it through a system
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unijeti ih u sustav
03:13
and get to a solution.
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i dobiti rješenje.
03:16
So online dating is the second most popular way
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Online dating je drugi najpopularniji način
03:18
that people now meet each other,
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upoznavanja ljudi,
03:20
but as it turns out, algorithms have been around
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no kako se ispostavilo, algoritmi postoje
03:22
for thousands of years in almost every culture.
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već tisućama godina u gotovo svakoj kulturi.
03:25
In fact, in Judaism, there were matchmakers
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Zapravo, u judaizmu postoje brakovesci
03:28
a long time ago, and though
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već odavno, i iako
03:29
they didn't have an explicit algorithm per se,
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nisu imali neki iznimno jasan algoritam,
03:32
they definitely were running through formulas in their heads,
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sigurno su imali razne formule u glavi,
03:34
like, is the girl going to like the boy?
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poput - hoće li se djevojci svidjeti mladić?
03:36
Are the families going to get along?
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Hoće li se dvije obitelji dobro slagati?
03:38
What's the rabbi going to say?
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Što će na to reći rabin?
03:39
Are they going to start having children right away?
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Hoće li odmah početi raditi na djeci?
03:42
And the matchmaker would sort of think through all of this,
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I brakovezac bi razmišljao o svemu ovome,
03:45
put two people together, and that would be the end of it.
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spojio bi dvoje ljudi i to bi bilo to.
03:47
So in my case, I thought,
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Tako da sam se u svom slučaju pitala
03:49
well, will data and an algorithm
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hoće li me podaci i algoritam
03:52
lead me to my Prince Charming?
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dovesti do mog princa na bijelom konju?
03:54
So I decided to sign on.
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Zato sam se odlučila priključiti.
03:56
Now, there was one small catch.
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No, postojala je mala caka.
03:57
As I'm signing on to the various dating websites,
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Dok sam se priključivala raznim internetskim stranicama za veze,
04:00
as it happens, I was really, really busy.
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ispostavilo se da sam vrlo, vrlo zaposlena.
04:02
But that actually wasn't the biggest problem.
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No to nije bio ni najveći problem.
04:05
The biggest problem is that I hate
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Najveći je problem bio što mrzim
04:07
filling out questionnaires of any kind,
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ispunjavati bilo kakve upitnike,
04:09
and I certainly don't like questionnaires
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a najmanje volim upitnike
04:11
that are like Cosmo quizzes.
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poput kvizova u časopisu Cosmopolitan.
04:13
So I just copied and pasted from my résumé.
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Tako da sam samo copy-pastala svoj životopis.
04:16
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
04:21
So in the descriptive part up top,
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U dijelu gdje se trebam opisati,
04:24
I said that I was an award-winning journalist
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rekla sam kako sam nagrađivana novinarka
04:26
and a future thinker.
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i vizionarka.
04:28
When I was asked about fun activities and
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Kada sam trebala navesti kojim se zabavnim aktivnostima bavim
04:30
my ideal date, I said monetization
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i svog idealnog partnera, navela sam monetizaciju
04:33
and fluency in Japanese.
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i tečnost u japanskom jeziku.
04:36
I talked a lot about JavaScript.
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Puno sam govorila o JavaScriptu.
04:38
So obviously this was not the best way
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Očigledno, to nije bio najbolji način
04:42
to put my most sexy foot forward.
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da prikažem svoju zavodljivu stranu.
04:45
But the real failure was that
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No, najveći neuspjeh je bio to
04:47
there were plenty of men for me to date.
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što je bilo jako puno muškaraca s kojima sam mogla na spoj.
04:50
These algorithms had a sea full of men
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Ti algoritmi uključivali su more muškaraca
04:52
that wanted to take me out on lots of dates --
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koji su me htjeli izvesti na puno spojeva --
04:55
what turned out to be truly awful dates.
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koji su se ispostavili kao očajni spojevi.
04:59
There was this guy Steve, the I.T. guy.
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Bio je jedan informatičar, Steve.
05:01
The algorithm matched us up
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Algoritam nas je spojio
05:03
because we share a love of gadgets,
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jer nas oboje zanimaju gadgeti,
05:05
we share a love of math and data and '80s music,
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matematika, podaci i glazba iz 80ih,
05:09
and so I agreed to go out with him.
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i zato sam pristala izaći van s njim.
05:11
So Steve the I.T. guy invited me out
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Steve, informatičar, pozvao me na spoj
05:13
to one of Philadelphia's white-table-cloth,
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u jedan jako skupi philadelphijski restoran,
05:15
extremely expensive restaurants.
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s bijelim stolnjacima.
05:17
And we went in, and right off the bat,
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Ušli smo unutra, i od samog početka,
05:19
our conversation really wasn't taking flight,
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naš razgovor nije išao nikuda,
05:22
but he was ordering a lot of food.
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no on je naručivao puno hrane.
05:24
In fact, he didn't even bother looking at the menu.
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Zapravo, nije niti pogledao jelovnik.
05:26
He was ordering multiple appetizers,
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Naručivao je brojna predjela,
05:28
multiple entrées, for me as well,
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brojna glavna jela, za mene također,
05:31
and suddenly there are piles and piles of food on our table,
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i odjednom je na našem stolu bilo brdo hrane,
05:33
also lots and lots of bottles of wine.
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i jako puno boca vina.
05:36
So we're nearing the end of our conversation
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Približavali smo se kraju našeg razgovora
05:38
and the end of dinner, and I've decided
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i večere, i shvatila sam da
05:39
Steve the I.T. guy and I are really just not meant for each other,
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Steve, informatičar, i ja nismo suđeni jedno drugome
05:42
but we'll part ways as friends,
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no da ćemo se rastati kao prijatelji,
05:44
when he gets up to go to the bathroom,
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kada se on uputio u toalet,
05:47
and in the meantime the bill comes to our table.
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a u međuvremenu je na stol došao račun.
05:50
And listen, I'm a modern woman.
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Slušajte, ja sam moderna žena,
05:53
I am totally down with splitting the bill.
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i sasvim mi je prihvatljivo podijeliti račun.
05:56
But then Steve the I.T. guy didn't come back. (Gasping)
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No, Steve, informatičar, se nije se vratio. (Uzdasi)
06:00
And that was my entire month's rent.
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To je bila cijela moja mjesečna stanarina.
06:04
So needless to say, I was not having a good night.
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Ne moram ni reći da se nisam dobro provela.
06:08
So I run home, I call my mother, I call my sister,
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Otišla sam kući, nazvala majku i sestru,
06:11
and as I do, at the end of each one of these
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i kao što uvijek radim nakon svakog
06:14
terrible, terrible dates,
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užasnog spoja,
06:16
I regale them with the details.
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zasula ih detaljima.
06:18
And they say to me,
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One su mi odvratile:
06:20
"Stop complaining."
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"Prestani se žaliti."
06:22
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:23
"You're just being too picky."
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"Jednostavno si preizbirljiva."
06:26
So I said, fine, from here on out
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Rekla sam tada da ću otad
06:28
I'm only going on dates where I know
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ići na spojeve samo ondje gdje znam
06:29
that there's wi-fi, and I'm bringing my laptop.
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da ima wi-fija i da ću sa sobom nositi svoj laptop.
06:31
I'm going to shove it into my bag,
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Ugurat ću ga u torbu,
06:33
and I'm going to have this email template,
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i imat ću predložak e-pošte,
06:35
and I'm going to fill it out and collect information
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popunit ću ga i prikupiti informacije
06:37
on all these different data points during the date
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o raznim podatcima koje ću dobiti tijekom spoja
06:40
to prove to everybody that empirically,
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kako bih svima dokazala da su empirijski
06:42
these dates really are terrible. (Laughter)
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ovi spojevi zaista užasni. (Smijeh)
06:44
So I started tracking things like
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Počela sam pratiti stvari poput
06:46
really stupid, awkward, sexual remarks;
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zaista glupih, neugodnih seksualnih primjedbi;
06:49
bad vocabulary;
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lošeg vokabulara;
06:51
the number of times a man forced me to high-five him.
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koliko puta me muškarac prisilio da mu dam pet.
06:54
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:56
So I started to crunch some numbers,
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Počela sam spajati neke brojke,
07:00
and that allowed me to make some correlations.
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što mi je omogućilo da izvučem neke korelacije.
07:03
So as it turns out,
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Ispostavilo se da,
07:06
for some reason, men who drink Scotch
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iz nekog razloga, muškarci koji piju viski,
07:09
reference kinky sex immediately.
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odmah aludiraju na pomalo perverzan seks.
07:11
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:13
Well, it turns out that these
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Ispostavilo se da to
07:16
probably weren't bad guys.
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vjerojatno nisu loši dečki.
07:17
There were just bad for me.
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Jedino što su loši za mene.
07:19
And as it happens, the algorithms that were setting us up,
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I algoritmi koji su nas spajali
07:23
they weren't bad either.
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isto tako nisu bili loši.
07:24
These algorithms were doing exactly
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Ti su algoritmi radili upravo ono
07:26
what they were designed to do,
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za što su bili i napravljeni,
07:27
which was to take our user-generated information,
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da prikupe naše podatke,
07:30
in my case, my résumé,
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u mom slučaju, moj životopis,
07:32
and match it up with other people's information.
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i spoje ih s tuđim podatcima.
07:35
See, the real problem here is that,
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Vidite, pravi problem je taj što,
07:36
while the algorithms work just fine,
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iako algoritmi dobro funkcioniraju,
07:38
you and I don't, when confronted
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ti i ja ne funkcioniramo dobro, kada se suočimo
07:40
with blank windows where we're supposed
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s praznim prozorčićima gdje bismo trebali
07:42
to input our information online.
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unijeti naše podatke.
07:44
Very few of us have the ability
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Jako malo nas može biti
07:46
to be totally and brutally honest with ourselves.
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potpuno i brutalno iskreni sami sa sobom.
07:50
The other problem is that these websites are asking us
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Drugi problem je što nam te internetske stranice postavljaju
07:52
questions like, are you a dog person or a cat person?
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pitanja poput: "Voliš li pse ili mačke?"
07:55
Do you like horror films or romance films?
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"Voliš li horore ili romantične filmove?"
07:58
I'm not looking for a pen pal.
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Ne tražim prijatelja za dopisivanje.
08:00
I'm looking for a husband. Right?
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Tražim supruga. Dobro?
08:02
So there's a certain amount of superficiality in that data.
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Tako da su ti podatci prilično površni.
08:05
So I said fine, I've got a new plan.
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Onda sam si rekla da imam novi plan.
08:08
I'm going to keep using these online dating sites,
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I dalje ću se služiti tim online dating stranicama,
08:10
but I'm going to treat them as databases,
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no koristit ću ih kao baze podataka,
08:12
and rather than waiting for an algorithm to set me up,
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i umjesto da čekam da me algoritam spoji s nekime,
08:15
I think I'm going to try reverse-engineering this entire system.
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pokušat ću cijeli taj sustav podvrgnuti obrnutom inženjeringu.
08:19
So knowing that there was superficial data
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Znajući da se koriste površni podaci
08:22
that was being used to match me up with other people,
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kako bi me se spojilo s drugim ljudima,
08:24
I decided instead to ask my own questions.
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odlučila sam da umjesto toga sama postavljam pitanja.
08:27
What was every single possible thing
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Koje su to sve bile stvari
08:28
that I could think of that I was looking for in a mate?
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kojih sam se mogla sjetiti da su mi bitne za mog partnera?
08:31
So I started writing and writing and writing,
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Počela sam pisati i pisati i pisati,
08:36
and at the end, I had amassed
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i na kraju sam prikupila
08:38
72 different data points.
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72 različita podatka.
08:41
I wanted somebody was Jew...ish,
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Htjela sam nekoga tko je Židov,
08:43
so I was looking for somebody who had the same
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tražila sam nekoga tko ima isto
08:45
background and thoughts on our culture,
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podrijetlo i poglede na našu kulturu,
08:47
but wasn't going to force me to go to shul
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ali me neće tjerati da idem u sinagogu
08:49
every Friday and Saturday.
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svaki petak i subotu.
08:51
I wanted somebody who worked hard,
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Htjela sam nekoga tko puno radi,
08:53
because work for me is extremely important,
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jer mi je rad iznimno bitan,
08:55
but not too hard.
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no da ne radi previše.
08:56
For me, the hobbies that I have
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Za mene su moji hobiji
08:58
are really just new work projects that I've launched.
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zapravo novi projekti koje sam pokrenula.
09:01
I also wanted somebody who not only wanted two children,
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Također sam htjela nekoga tko ne samo da želi imati dvoje djece,
09:04
but was going to have the same attitude toward parenting that I do,
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nego će imati i isti pristup odgoju kao i ja.
09:07
so somebody who was going to be totally okay
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1931
dakle, netko kome će biti sasvim uredu
09:09
with forcing our child to start taking piano lessons at age three,
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siliti našu djecu da idu na satove klavira u dobi od tri godine,
09:12
and also maybe computer science classes
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a možda i informatku
09:16
if we could wrangle it.
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ako je uspijemo ugurati.
09:18
So things like that, but I also wanted somebody
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Takve neke stvari, no htjela sam i nekoga
09:20
who would go to far-flung, exotic places,
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tko bi išao na udaljena, egzotična mjesta,
09:22
like Petra, Jordan.
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poput Petre u Jordanu.
09:23
I also wanted somebody who would weigh
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Htjela sam nekoga tko teži
09:25
20 pounds more than me at all times,
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10 kilograma više od mene u svakom trenutku,
09:27
regardless of what I weighed.
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bez obzira koliko sam ja teška.
09:28
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:31
So I now have these 72 different data points,
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Tako sam imala ta 72 različita podatka,
09:34
which, to be fair, is a lot.
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što je zaista puno.
09:36
So what I did was, I went through
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Prošla sam kroz taj popis
09:37
and I prioritized that list.
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i birala prioritete.
09:39
I broke it into a top tier and a second tier of points,
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Podijelila sam ih u glavni, gornji razred i drugi razred bodova,
09:43
and I ranked everything starting at 100
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i sve sam rangirala počevši od 100
09:46
and going all the way down to 91,
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1980
sve do 91,
09:48
and listing things like I was looking for somebody who was really smart,
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i navodeći stvari poput toga da tražim nekoga jako pametnog,
09:51
who would challenge and stimulate me,
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tko će me izazivati i poticati,
09:53
and balancing that with a second tier
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i uspoređivala to s drugim razredom
09:55
and a second set of points.
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i drugom skupinom bodova.
09:57
These things were also important to me
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Te su mi stvari također bile bitne,
09:59
but not necessarily deal-breakers.
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no nisu bile presudne.
10:04
So once I had all this done,
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Kad sam to sve napravila,
10:05
I then built a scoring system,
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1809
sastavila sam sustav ocjenjivanja,
10:07
because what I wanted to do
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budući da sam htjela
10:09
was to sort of mathematically calculate
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597854
1850
matematički izračunati
10:11
whether or not I thought the guy that I found online
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2506
bi li neki tip kojeg pronađem na internetu
10:14
would be a match with me.
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1447
bio moj par ili ne.
10:15
I figured there would be a minimum of 700 points
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2443
Shvatila sam kako bi trebao imati najmanje 700 bodova
10:18
before I would agree to email somebody
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prije nego bih pristala poslati mu e-poštu
10:19
or respond to an email message.
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ili odgovoriti na njegovu e-poštu.
10:21
For 900 points, I'd agree to go out on a date,
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609812
2002
Za 900 bodova pristala bih otići na spoj,
10:23
and I wouldn't even consider any kind of relationship
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2681
a ne bih ni pomišljala na bilo kakvu vezu
10:26
before somebody had crossed the 1,500 point threshold.
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4188
prije no što itko prođe prag od 1.500 bodova.
10:30
Well, as it turns out, this worked pretty well.
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Ispostavilo se da je to jako dobro funkcioniralo.
10:33
So I go back online now.
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Vratila sam se na Internet.
10:35
I found Jewishdoc57
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2755
Pronašla sam osobu Jewishdoc57
10:38
who's incredibly good-looking, incredibly well-spoken,
262
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2937
koji je nevjerojatno zgodan i nevjerojatno rječit,
10:41
he had hiked Mt. Fuji,
263
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1718
popeo se na planinu Fuji,
10:42
he had walked along the Great Wall.
264
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1742
prošetao se po Kineskom zidu.
10:44
He likes to travel as long as it doesn't involve a cruise ship.
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3116
Voli putovati sve dok to ne uključuje kruzer.
10:47
And I thought, I've done it!
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I pomislila sam: "Uspjela sam!"
10:50
I've cracked the code.
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"Razbila sam šifru!"
10:52
I have just found the Jewish Prince Charming
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"Pronašla sam židovskog princa na bijelom konju
10:56
of my family's dreams.
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2218
o kojem je moja obitelj sanjala."
10:58
There was only one problem:
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2156
Postojao je samo jedan problem:
11:00
He didn't like me back.
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3309
Nisam mu se sviđala.
11:03
And I guess the one variable that I haven't considered
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Jedina varijabla koju nisam bila uzela u obzir
11:06
is the competition.
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je konkurencija.
11:08
Who are all of the other women
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1488
Tko su sve ostale žene
11:10
on these dating sites?
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2445
na tim internetskim stranicama?
11:12
I found SmileyGirl1978.
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3704
Pronašla sam SmileyGirl1978.
11:16
She said she was a "fun girl who is Happy and Outgoing."
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2829
Rekla je da je "zabavna djevojka, koja je sretna i otvorena."
11:19
She listed her job as teacher.
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1442
Navela je da je učiteljica i
11:20
She said she is "silly, nice and friendly."
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2606
da je "luckasta, draga i srdačna."
11:23
She likes to make people laugh "alot."
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"Jako" voli nasmijavati ljude.
11:25
At this moment I knew, clicking after profile
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2442
U tom sam trenutku znala, klikajući profil
11:28
after profile after profile that looked like this,
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2051
za profilom koji su izgledali ovako,
11:30
that I needed to do some market research.
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2176
da trebam provesti istraživanje tržišta.
11:32
So I created 10 fake male profiles.
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3280
Stvorila sam 10 lažnih muških profila.
11:35
Now, before I lose all of you --
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2944
Prije nego vas sve izgubim --
11:38
(Laughter) --
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1753
(Smijeh) --
11:40
understand that I did this
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3588
znajte da sam to učinila
11:44
strictly to gather data
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2137
samo da prikupim podatke
11:46
about everybody else in the system.
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1748
o svima ostalima u tom sustavu.
11:47
I didn't carry on crazy Catfish-style relationships with anybody.
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4195
Nisam se s nikim upuštala u sulude veze s lažnim identitetom.
11:52
I really was just scraping their data.
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700143
2013
Zaista sam samo prikupljala njihove podatke.
11:54
But I didn't want everybody's data.
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702156
1968
No, nisam htjela svačije podatke.
11:56
I only wanted data on the women
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1883
Htjela sam samo podatke onih žena
11:58
who were going to be attracted
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koje će privući
11:59
to the type of man that I really, really wanted to marry. (Laughter)
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tip muškarca za kojeg bih se ja vrlo rado udala. (Smijeh)
12:02
When I released these men into the wild,
296
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3595
Kada sam pustila te "muškarce" u divljinu,
12:06
I did follow some rules.
297
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1302
poštivala sam neka pravila.
12:07
So I didn't reach out to any woman first.
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2140
Nisam prva prilazila niti jednoj ženi.
12:09
I just waited to see who these profiles were going to attract,
299
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2921
Samo sam čekala da vidim koga će ti profili privući,
12:12
and mainly what I was looking at was two different data sets.
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3371
a najviše sam promatrala dvije različite skupine podatake.
12:16
So I was looking at qualitative data,
301
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1538
Gledala sam kvalitativne podatke,
12:17
so what was the humor, the tone,
302
725672
1949
poput humora, tona,
12:19
the voice, the communication style
303
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1562
glasa, stila komunikacije
12:21
that these women shared in common?
304
729183
1850
koje su te žene dijelile.
12:23
And also quantitative data,
305
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1283
Ali i kvantitativne podatke,
12:24
so what was the average length of their profile,
306
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2338
poput prosječe duljine njihovog profila,
12:26
how much time was spent between messages?
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2235
koliko je vremena prošlo između dopisivanja?
12:28
What I was trying to get at here was
308
736889
1681
Ono što sam htjela ovdje dobiti je
12:30
that I figured in person,
309
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1925
da i sama
12:32
I would be just as competitive
310
740495
1410
budem jednako konkurentna
12:33
as a SmileyGirl1978.
311
741905
2065
kao i SmileyGirl1978.
12:35
I wanted to figure out how to maximize
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1900
Htjela sam vidjeti kako da poboljšam
12:37
my own profile online.
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2940
svoj vlastiti online profil.
12:40
Well, one month later,
314
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1727
Dakle, nakon mjesec dana,
12:42
I had a lot of data, and I was able to do another analysis.
315
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3753
imala sam puno podataka i mogla sam napraviti drugu analizu.
12:46
And as it turns out, content matters a lot.
316
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2880
Ispostavilo se da je sadržaj jako bitan.
12:49
So smart people tend to write a lot --
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2706
Pametni ljudi imaju naviku puno pisati --
12:51
3,000, 4,000,
318
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1875
3.000, 4.000,
12:53
5,000 words about themselves,
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1743
5.000 riječi o sebi,
12:55
which may all be very, very interesting.
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2146
što može biti jako zanimljivo.
12:57
The challenge here, though, is that
321
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1352
No, ovdje je izazov to što se
12:58
the popular men and women
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1182
popularni muškarci i žene
13:00
are sticking to 97 words on average
323
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3772
u prosjeku drže 97 riječi
13:03
that are written very, very well,
324
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1722
koje su jako dobro napisane,
13:05
even though it may not seem like it all the time.
325
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2890
iako se to možda ne čini uvijek tako.
13:08
The other sort of hallmark of the people who do this well
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2149
Druga značajka ljudi koji ovo rade dobro
13:10
is that they're using non-specific language.
327
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2153
je što ne koriste konkretan jezik.
13:12
So in my case, you know,
328
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1290
U mom slučaju,
13:14
"The English Patient" is my most favorite movie ever,
329
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3198
moj omiljeni film je "Engleski pacijent"
13:17
but it doesn't work to use that in a profile,
330
785348
3809
no, ne koristi ako to spomenem u profilu,
13:21
because that's a superficial data point,
331
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1741
jer je to površan podatak
13:22
and somebody may disagree with me
332
790914
1542
i netko se ne bi se trebao složiti sa mnom
13:24
and decide they don't want to go out with me
333
792456
1215
i odlučiti da ne žele izaći sa mnom
13:25
because they didn't like sitting through the three-hour movie.
334
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2699
jer im se nije svidjelo sjediti tri sata gledajući taj film.
13:28
Also, optimistic language matters a lot.
335
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2240
Osim toga, optimističan jezik je jako bitan.
13:30
So this is a word cloud
336
798610
1436
Ovo je oblak s riječima
13:32
highlighting the most popular words that were used
337
800046
2460
koji pokazuje najpopularnije riječi koje su koristile
13:34
by the most popular women,
338
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1632
najpopularnije žene,
13:36
words like "fun" and "girl" and "love."
339
804138
2575
poput: "zabava", "cura" i "ljubav".
13:38
And what I realized was not that I had
340
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2111
Shvatila sam kako ne trebam
13:40
to dumb down my own profile.
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1568
učiniti svoj profil glupljim.
13:42
Remember, I'm somebody who said
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1532
Sjetite se, ja sam osoba
13:43
that I speak fluent Japanese and I know JavaScript
343
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3043
koja tečno govori japanski i poznajem JavaScript
13:46
and I was okay with that.
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1594
i to mi je bilo ok.
13:48
The difference is that it's about being more approachable
345
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2717
Razlika je ta što se tu radi o tome kako biti pristupačniji
13:51
and helping people understand
346
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2155
i kako pomoći ljudima da shvate
13:53
the best way to reach out to you.
347
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1612
koji je najbolji način da ti se obrate.
13:55
And as it turns out, timing is also really, really important.
348
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2922
Ispostavilo se i da je vrijeme također jako bitno.
13:57
Just because you have access
349
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1650
Samo zato što imate pristup
13:59
to somebody's mobile phone number
350
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1744
nečijem broju mobitela
14:01
or their instant message account
351
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1756
ili njihovom računu instant poruka,
14:03
and it's 2 o'clock in the morning and you happen to be awake,
352
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2407
i dva su sata ujutro, a vi ste nekim slučajem budni,
14:05
doesn't mean that that's a good time to communicate with those people.
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3189
ne znači da je to dobar trenutak da komunicirate s tim ljudima.
14:08
The popular women on these online sites
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2649
Popularne žene na ovim internetskim stranicama
14:11
spend an average of 23 hours
355
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1838
u prosjeku imaju pauzu od 23 sata
14:13
in between each communication.
356
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2376
između svake komunikacije.
14:15
And that's what we would normally do
357
843576
1931
To je ono što bismo i inače radili
14:17
in the usual process of courtship.
358
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2064
u uobičajenom procesu udvaranja.
14:19
And finally, there were the photos.
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3405
I konačno, tu su i fotografije.
14:22
All of the women who were popular
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850976
1833
Sve popularne žene bile su
14:24
showed some skin.
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odjevene otvorenije.
14:26
They all looked really great,
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Sve su izgledale zaista odlično,
14:28
which turned out to be in sharp contrast
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što je bila velika razlika
14:31
to what I had uploaded.
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od moje fotografije.
14:34
Once I had all of this information,
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Sad kad sam imala sve te informacije,
14:36
I was able to create a super profile,
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mogla sam napraviti super profil,
14:38
so it was still me,
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tako da sam to i dalje bila ja,
14:40
but it was me optimized now for this ecosystem.
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no, sada optimizirana za taj ekosustav.
14:44
And as it turns out, I did a really good job.
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I ispostavilo se da sam napravila zaista dobar posao.
14:49
I was the most popular person online.
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Bila sam najpopularija osoba na Internetu.
14:52
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
14:54
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
14:58
And as it turns out, lots and lots of men wanted to date me.
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I mnogo je muškaraca htjelo na spoj sa mnom.
15:02
So I call my mom, I call my sister, I call my grandmother.
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I tako nazovem svoju majku, sestru i baku.
15:04
I'm telling them about this fabulous news,
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Govorim im o tim sjajnim vijestima,
15:06
and they say, "This is wonderful!
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a one kažu: "To je prekrasno!
15:08
How soon are you going out?"
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Kada ćeš na spoj?"
15:10
And I said, "Well, actually, I'm not going to go out with anybody."
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A ja im odgovaram: "Pa, zapravo, neću ni sa kim na spoj."
15:13
Because remember, in my scoring system,
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Jer, sjetite se, po mojem sustavu ocjenjivanja
15:15
they have to reach a minimum threshold of 700 points,
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moraju prijeći prag od minimalno 700 bodova,
15:17
and none of them have done that.
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a nijednome to nije uspjelo.
15:19
They said, "What? You're still being too damn picky."
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One odgovaraju: "Što? Još uvijek si previše izbirljiva."
15:22
Well, not too long after that,
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Nedugo nakon toga,
15:24
I found this guy, Thevenin,
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upoznala sam jednog čovjeka, Thevenina,
15:26
and he said that he was culturally Jewish,
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koji je rekao da je kulturološki Židov,
15:28
he said that his job was an arctic baby seal hunter,
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da je po profesiji lovac na bebe arktičkih tuljana,
15:31
which I thought was very clever.
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što sam smatrala domišljatim.
15:34
He talked in detail about travel.
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Detaljno je govorio o putovanjima.
15:37
He made a lot of really interesting cultural references.
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Imao je dosta zanimljivih kulturnih referenci.
15:39
He looked and talked exactly like what I wanted,
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Izgledao je i govorio upravo kako sam htjela,
15:42
and immediately, he scored 850 points.
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i odmah je dobio 850 bodova.
15:45
It was enough for a date.
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To je bilo dovoljno za spoj.
15:47
Three weeks later, we met up in person
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Tri tjedna kasnije našli smo se uživo
15:49
for what turned out to be a 14-hour-long conversation
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na razgovoru koji je trajao 14 sati,
15:52
that went from coffee shop to restaurant
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i koji je vodio od kafića do restorana
15:55
to another coffee shop to another restaurant,
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do drugog kafića do drugog restorana
15:57
and when he dropped me back off at my house that night
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i kada me je te večeri odbacio do moje kuće
15:59
I re-scored him --
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ponovo sam ga ocijenila --
16:00
[1,050 points!] --
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1.050 bodova! --
16:02
thought, you know what,
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iako, znate što?
16:03
this entire time I haven't been picky enough.
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Cijelo to vrijeme nisam bila dovoljno izbirljiva.
16:06
Well, a year and a half after that,
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Godinu i pol dana poslije,
16:08
we were non-cruise ship traveling
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putovali smo (ne kruzerom),
16:11
through Petra, Jordan,
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kroz Petru u Jordanu,
16:13
when he got down on his knee and proposed.
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kada je kleknuo na koljeno i zaprosio me.
16:16
A year after that, we were married,
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Godinu nakon toga, bili smo vjenčani,
16:19
and about a year and a half after that, our daughter,
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a godinu i pol nakon toga, rodila se
16:21
Petra, was born.
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naša kći Petra.
16:23
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
16:30
Obviously, I'm having a fabulous life, so --
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Očito je da imam fantastičan život, tako da --
16:33
(Laughter) --
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(Smijeh) --
16:34
the question is, what does all of this mean for you?
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pitanje je, što sve ovo znači vama?
16:37
Well, as it turns out, there is an algorithm for love.
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Izgleda da postoji algoritam za ljubav.
16:40
It's just not the ones that we're being presented with online.
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Jedino što to nisu oni koji su nam predstavljeni na Internetu.
16:44
In fact, it's something that you write yourself.
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Zapravo, to je nešto što sami pišete.
16:46
So whether you're looking for a husband or a wife
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Tako da, bilo da tražite supruga ili suprugu
16:49
or you're trying to find your passion
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ili pokušavate pronaći svoju strast
16:51
or you're trying to start a business,
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ili pokušavate pokrenuti posao,
16:52
all you have to really do is figure out your own framework
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sve što trebate napraviti je da osmislite svoj vlastiti okvir
16:55
and play by your own rules,
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i da igrate po vlastitim pravilima,
16:57
and feel free to be as picky as you want.
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i slobodno budite izbirljivi koliko želite.
17:00
Well, on my wedding day,
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Na dan mog vjenčanja,
17:01
I had a conversation again with my grandmother,
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ponovo sam pričala sa svojom bakom,
17:03
and she said, "All right, maybe I was wrong.
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i rekla mi je, "U redu. Možda sam bila u krivu.
17:06
It looks like you did come up with
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Izgleda da si ipak osmislila
17:07
a really, really great system.
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jako, jako dobar sustav.
17:09
Now, your matzoh balls.
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No, što se tiče tvojih knedli,
17:12
They should be fluffy, not hard."
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trebale bi biti mekane, a ne tvrde."
17:15
And I'll take her advice on that.
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I poslušat ću taj njezin savjet.
17:17
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Amy Webb - Founder and CEO, Future Today InstituteAmy Webb is a futurist and founder of the Future Today Institute, and is the award-winning author of three books, including “Data: A Love Story” and “The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream.”
Why you should listen
Amy Webb uses data to understand the present and future of humanity, a practice she first developed as a journalist for the Wall Street Journal and Newsweek and has continued as a futurist. She is the head of the Future Today Institute, which researches collisions between technology, society and business — and maps scenarios that are on the horizon. She was named to the Thinkers50 Radar list of the 30 management thinkers most likely to shape the future of how organizations are managed and led.
Webb is on the adjunct faculty at the NYU Stern School of Business, where she teaches a popular MBA-level course on futures forecasting. She is the author of The Signals Are Talking, Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream, which has become the standard text on futures forecasting and explains how to predict and manage technological change. Her book Data: A Love Story tells the tale of how she gamed the online dating system to figure out how to find the love of her life.
Amy Webb | Speaker | TED.com