TED2002
George Dyson: The story of Project Orion
George Dyson o Projektu Orion
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George Dyson govori o Projektu Orion, masivnom nuklearnom svemirskom brodu koji bi nas, da je izrađen, mogao odvesti do Saturna za pet godina. Uz pomoć njegove perspektive sudionika projekta i hrpe tajnih dokumenata, san iz Atomskog doba ponovno oživljava.
George Dyson - Historian of science
In telling stories of technologies and the individuals who created them, George Dyson takes a clear-eyed view of our scientific past -- while illuminating what lies ahead. Full bio
In telling stories of technologies and the individuals who created them, George Dyson takes a clear-eyed view of our scientific past -- while illuminating what lies ahead. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm a historian.
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Povjesničar sam.
00:14
Steve told us about the future of little technology;
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Steve nam je govorio o budućnosti male tehnologije.
00:17
I'm going to show you some of the past of big technology.
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Ja ću vam pokazati nešto iz prošlosti velike tehnologije.
00:21
This was a project to build a 4,000-ton nuclear bomb-propelled spaceship
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Ovo je bio projekt izgradnje 4,000-tonskog svemirskog broda s nuklearnim pogonom
00:27
and go to Saturn and Jupiter.
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koji je trebao ići do Saturna i Jupitera.
00:30
This took place in my childhood -- 1957 to '65.
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Sve se događalo dok sam još bio dijete - od 1957. do 1965.
00:34
It was deeply classified.
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I bilo je strogo povjerljivo.
00:36
I'm going to show you some stuff that not only has not been declassified,
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Pokazat ću vam neke stvari koje ne samo da nikada nisu bile otvorene za javnost,
00:40
but has now been reclassified.
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nego im je ponovno stavljena ozaka tajnosti.
00:42
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
00:46
If all goes well, next year I'll be back and I'll have a lot more to show you,
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Ako sve prođe dobro, sljedeće ću se godine vratiti i imati više toga za pokazati,
00:50
and if all doesn't go well, I'll be in jail like Wen Ho Lee.
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a ako ne, bit ću u zatvoru poput Wen Ho Leea.
00:53
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
00:58
So, this ship was basically the size of the Marriott Hotel,
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Dakle taj je brod u osnovi bio velik kao Hotel Marriott,
01:02
a little taller and a little bigger.
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samo malo viši i malo veći.
01:04
And one of the people who worked on it in the beginning
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A jedan od ljudi koji su u početku radili na njemu
01:07
was my father, Freeman, there in the middle.
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bio moj otac Freeman - ovaj ovdje u sredini.
01:09
That's me and my sister, Esther, who's a frequent TEDster.
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ovo smo ja i moja sestra Esther, koja je često na TED-u...
01:12
I didn't like nuclear bomb-propelled spaceships.
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Nisam volio svemirske brodove s nuklearnim pogonom.
01:15
I mean, I thought it was a great idea, but I started building kayaks.
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U biti, to mi se činilo kao dobra ideja, pa sam počeo graditi kajake.
01:18
So we had a few kayaks.
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Tako da smo imali nekoliko kajaka.
01:20
Just so you know, I am not Dr. Strangelove.
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Samo da znate, nisam Dr. Strangelove.
01:24
But all the time I was out there doing these strange kayak voyages
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Ali sve to vrijeme dok sam bio tamo negdje na svojim čudnim putovanjima kajakom
01:27
in odd, beautiful parts of this planet,
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po neobičnim i prekrasnim dijelovima planeta,
01:30
I always thought in the back of my mind about Project Orion,
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uvijek sam se u mislima vraćao na Projekt Orion i razmišljao
01:33
and how my father and his friends were going to build these big ships.
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kako su moj otac i njegovi prijatelji trebali graditi te goleme brodove.
01:37
They were really going to go, they were actually going to go.
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Oni su stvarno mislili ići. Oni su zapravo trebali ići.
01:40
Ted Taylor, who led the project, was going to take his children.
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Ted Taylor, voditelj projekta, mislio je povesti svoju djecu sa sobom.
01:42
My father was not going to take his children;
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Moj otac nas nije kanio povesti.
01:44
that was one of the reasons we sort of had a falling out for a few years.
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I to je jedan od razloga zašto smo nekoliko godina bili toliko neuspješni.
01:49
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
01:51
The project began in '57 at General Atomics there.
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Projekt je započeo 1957. u General Atomicu.
01:55
That's right on the coast at La Jolla.
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To je na samoj obali kod La Jollae.
01:57
Look at that central building right in the middle of the picture:
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Pogledajte središnju zgradu u sredini ove slike.
01:59
that's the 130-foot diameter library,
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To vam je knjižnica promjera 40 metara.
02:03
that is exactly the size of the base of the spaceship.
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To je točna veličina baze svemirskog broda.
02:06
So put that library at the bottom of that ship --
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Pa ako zamislite knjižnicu na dnu broda -
02:08
that's how big the thing was going to be.
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tako velika je ta stvar trebala biti.
02:10
It would take 2,000 or 3,000 bombs.
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Trebalo bi dvije ili tri tisuće bombi.
02:13
The people who worked on it were a lot of the Los Alamos people
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Radnici na projektu su većinom bili iz Los Alamosa,
02:15
who had done the hydrogen bomb work.
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ljudi koji su radili na hidrogenskoj bombi.
02:17
It was the first project funded by ARPA.
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Bio je to prvi projekt koji je financirala ARPA.
02:19
That's the contract where ARPA gave the first million dollars
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Ovo je ugovor kojim ARPA daje prvi milijun dolara
02:22
to get this thing started.
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kako bi se sve započelo.
02:23
"Spaceship project officially begun. Job waiting for you. Dyson."
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"Projekt svemirskog broda je službeno započeo. Čeka te posao. Dyson."
02:27
That's July '58.
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To je srpanj 1958.
02:29
Two days later, the space traveler's manifesto explaining why --
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Dva dana kasnije: manifest svemirskog putnika objašnjava zašto,
02:32
just like we heard yesterday -- why we need to go into space:
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baš kao što su nam rekli jučer - zašto mi moramo ići u svemir?
02:36
"trips to satellites of the outer planets. August 20, 1958."
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"Put do satelita vanjskih planeta" - 20. kolovoza 1958.
02:40
These are the statistics of what would be the good places to go and stop. (Laughter)
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Ovo su podaci koji određuju dobre polazišne i odredišne lokacije.
02:44
Some of the sizes of the ships,
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Neke planirani brodovi trebali su
02:46
ranging all the way up to ship mass of 8 million tons,
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doseći masu od čak 8 milijuna tona.
02:49
so that was the outer extreme.
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To je bio krajnji ekstrem.
02:51
Here was version two: 2,000 bombs.
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Ovdje je druga verzija - 2,000 bombi.
02:56
These are five kiloton yield bombs about the size of small Volkswagens;
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Ovo su pet kilotonske bombe, otprilike veličine malog Volskswagena,
03:00
it would take 800 to get into orbit.
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Trebalo bi ih 800 za penjanje u orbitu.
03:03
Here we see a 10,000 ton ship
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Ovdje vidimo brod od 10,000 tona -
03:06
will deliver 1,300 tons to Saturn and back;
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kako bi mogao ponijeti 1,300 t tereta do Saturna i natrag.
03:09
essentially a five year trip.
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U osnovi, to bi bio petogodišnji put.
03:11
Possible departure dates: October 1960 to February 1967. (Laughter)
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Mogući datumi polaska: od listopada 1960 do veljače 1967.
03:15
This is trajectories going to Mars;
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Ovo su putanje do Marsa.
03:18
all this was done by hand with slide rules.
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Sve je izrađeno ručno, ravnalima.
03:20
The little Orion ship
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Ovaj mali brod Orion -
03:21
and what it would take to do what Orion does with chemicals:
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i sve potrebno kako bi brod funkcionirao onako kako Orion funkcionira pomoću kemikalija.
03:24
you have a ship the size of the Empire State Building.
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Brod bi bio veličine Empire State Buildinga.
03:26
NASA had no interest; they tried to kill the project.
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NASA nije bila zainteresirana i pokušali su zaustaviti projekt.
03:28
The people who supported it were the Air Force,
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Ljudi koji su ga podržavali pripadali su zrakoplovstvu,
03:30
which meant that it was all secret.
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što znači da je sve ovo bilo tajno.
03:32
And that's why when you get something declassified,
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I to je razlog zašto, kad s nečeg skinete oznaku tajnosti,
03:34
that's what it looks like. (Laughter)
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to ovako izgleda.
03:37
Military weapon versions that were versions that carried
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Vojne verzije bile su verzije koje su nosile
03:39
hydrogen bombs that could destroy half the planet.
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hidrogenske bombe i koje su mogle uništiti pola planeta.
03:41
There's another version there that sends retaliatory strikes at the Soviet Union.
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Bila je još jedna verzija koja je napravljena za omazdu na Sovjetski Savez.
03:45
This is the real secret stuff: how to get directed energy explosions
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To je zaista bila tajna: način kako usmjeriti energetske eksplozije,
03:49
so you're sending the energy of a nuclear explosion --
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tako da se energija nuklearne eksplozije
03:51
not like just a stick of dynamite,
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ne šalje kao kad eksplodira komad dinamita,
03:53
but you're directing it at the ship.
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već usmjereno na brod.
03:55
And this is still a very active subject.
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I to je još uvijek vrlo živa tema.
03:57
It's quite dangerous,
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Prilično je opasno,
03:59
but I believe it's better to have dangerous things in the open
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ali mislim da je opasne stvari bolje držati dostupnima,
04:01
than think you're going to keep them secret.
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nego misliti da ih možeš zatajiti.
04:03
This is what's happened at 600 microseconds.
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Ovo se dogodilo u 600 mikrosekundi.
04:05
The Air Force started to build smaller models and actually started doing this.
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Zrakoplovstvo je počelo graditi manje modele i zapravo je započelo ovo.
04:10
The guys in La Jolla said, "We've got to get started now."
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Dečki iz La Jollae su rekli, "Sad zaista moramo krenuti."
04:13
They built a high-explosive propelled model.
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Izgradili su model pogonjen jakim eksplozivom.
04:15
These are stills from film footage that was saved by someone
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Ovo su slike iz filma koji je snimio netko
04:19
who was supposed to destroy it but didn't
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tko ga je trebao i uništiti ali nije,
04:21
and kept it in their basement for the last 40 years.
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nego ga je držao u podrumu 40 godina.
04:23
So, these are three-pound charges of C4;
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Ovo su vam punjenja eksploziva C4 od 1,4 kg.
04:26
that's about 10 times what the guy had in his shoes. (Laughter)
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To je otprilike 10 puta više nego što je onaj momak imao u cipelama.
04:30
This is Ed Day putting ... So each of these coffee cans has three pounds of C4 in it.
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Ovo je Ed Day koji se brine da svaka od tih limenki sadrži 1,4 kg C4.
04:35
They're building a system that ejects these at quarter-second intervals.
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Grade sustav koji ih izbacuje u intervalima od po četvrt sekunde.
04:39
That's my dad in the sport coat there holding the briefcase.
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Ovdje je moj otac u sportskoj jakni, drži aktovku.
04:42
So, they had a lot of fun doing this. But no children were allowed;
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Dobro su se zabavljali dok su ovo radili, ali djeci nije bio dopušten pristup.
04:45
my dad could tell me he was building a spaceship
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Moj otac mi je smio reći da gradi svemirski brod
04:48
and going to go to Saturn,
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i da će ići do Saturna,
04:50
but he could not say anything more about it.
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ali nije mogao reći ništa više.
04:52
So all my life I have wanted to find this stuff out,
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Tako da sam cijeli svoj život htio saznati što više o tome,
04:54
and spent the last four years tracking these old guys down.
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i zadnje sam četiri godine proveo u potrazi za tim starcima.
04:56
These are stills from the video.
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Ovo su slike iz filma.
04:58
Jeff Bezos kindly, yesterday, said
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Jeff Bezos je ljubazno jučer rekao
05:01
he'll put this video up on the Amazon site -- some little clip of it. (Applause)
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da će staviti ovaj video na Amazon, barem neki mali isječak.
05:04
So, thanks to him.
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Tako, zahvaljujući njemu.
05:06
They got quite serious about the engineering of this.
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Postali su prilično ozbiljni u vezi projektiranja ovog.
05:08
The size of that mass, for us, is really large technology
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Veličina te mase, znate, za nas je stvarno velika tehnologija,
05:12
in a way we're never going to go back to.
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kojoj se na neki način više nećemo vraćati.
05:15
If you saw the 1959 ... This is what it would feel like in the passenger compartment;
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Ako ste vidjeli 1959 -- ovo je kako bi se osjećali u odjeljku za putnike.
05:19
that's acceleration profile. (Laughter)
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Ovo je akceleracijski profil.
05:22
And pulse system yield:
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I ovo pulsni sustav.
05:24
we're looking at 20-kiloton yield for an effect for us of 10 million Newtons.
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Gledamo na 20-kilotonski pogon koji ima efekat 10 milijuna Newtona.
05:28
Well, here we have a little problem,
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Dobro, ovdje imamo mali problem:
05:30
the radiation doses at the crew station: 700 rads per shot. (Laughter)
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radijacija utječe na posadu -- 700 rada po ispucavanju.
05:36
Fission yields during development:
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Fizijsko polje za vrijeme razvoja:
05:38
they were hoping to get clean bombs -- they didn't.
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Nadali su se da će dobiti čiste bombe. Nisu.
05:42
Eyeburn: this is what happens to the people in Miami who are looking up. (Laughter)
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Opečene oči -- ovo se dogodilo ljudima u Miamiu koji su gledali gore.
05:45
Personnel compartment noise: that's not too bad;
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Odjeljak za osoblje. Obratite pozornost da ni to nije previše loše.
05:49
it's very low frequencies, it's basically like these subwoofers.
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Ovo je jako niska frekvencija. Zapravo je poput ovih zvučnika.
05:52
And now we have ground hazard assessments
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I sad imamo temelje za procjene opasnosti
05:54
when you have a blow-up on the pad.
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kad imate eksploziju na postolju.
05:56
Finally, at the very end in 1964, NASA steps in and says,
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Konačno, na samom kraju, 1964., NASA se pridružila i rekla,
05:59
"OK, we'll support a feasibility study for a small version
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"OK, mi ćemo podržati studiju za malu verziju
06:02
that could be launched with Saturn Vs in sections and pieced together."
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koja bi se mogla lansirati sa Saturn Vs-om u elementima i spojena zajedno.
06:06
So this is what NASA did, getting an
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I to je ono što je NASA napravila, znate,
06:12
eight man version that would go to Mars.
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verzija za osam ljudi koja bi išla na Mars.
06:14
They liked it because the guys who kind of live there would be like, "It's just like
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To im se sviđalo zato jer bi na neki način ljudi mogli živjeti tamo --
06:16
living in a submarine."
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poput života u podmornici.
06:18
This is crew compartment. It switches, so what's upside down
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To je odjeljak za posadu. Okreće se, tako da su strane okrenute
06:21
is right side up when you go to artificial gravity mode.
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kad prelazite u umjetnu gravitaciju.
06:23
The scientists were still going to go along;
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Znanstvenici su i dalje željeli razvijati,
06:25
they would take seven astronauts and seven scientists.
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i htjeli su uzeti sedam astronauta i sedam znanstvenika.
06:27
This is a 20 man version for going to Jupiter:
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To je verzija za 20 ljudi koji bi išli na Jupiter:
06:30
bunks, storm cellars, exercise room.
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spremišta, sigurnosti bunkeri, teretane.
06:33
You know, it was going to be a nice long trip.
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I sami znate da bi to bio dug put.
06:36
The Air Force version: here we have a military version.
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Verzija Zračnih snaga. Imamo vojnu verziju.
06:39
This is the kind of stuff that's not been declassified,
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To je takva stvar kojoj nije bila maknuta oznaka tajnosti,
06:42
just that people managed to sneak home and after,
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samo su je ljudi uspjeli tajno odnjeti kući i kasnije,
06:45
you know, on their deathbed basically gave me.
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znate, na samrtnoj postelji dali meni.
06:48
The sort of artist conceptions:
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To je neka vrsta umjetničkog koncepta--
06:50
these are basically PowerPoint presentations
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to su u osnovi PowerPoint prezentacije
06:53
given to the Air Force 40 years ago.
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dane Zračnim snagama prije 40 godina.
06:55
Look at the little guys there outside the vehicle.
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Pogledajte na ove male ljude tamo, izvan vozila.
07:01
And one part of NASA was interested in it
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I jedan dio NASA-e je bio zainteresiran,
07:03
but the headquarters in NASA, they killed the project.
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ali su u upravi NASA-e odlučili ubiti projekt.
07:06
So finally at the end, we can
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I, konačno, na kraju, mi možemo
07:09
see the thing followed its sort of design path
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vidjeti koje su stvari pratile ovaj put dizajniranja
07:12
right up to 1965 and then all those paths came to a halt.
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sve do 1965. I onda su se svi ovi putevi zaustavili.
07:16
Results: none.
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Rezultati? Nema ih.
07:18
This project is hereby terminated.
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Ovaj projekt je zaustavljen.
07:20
So that's the end. All I can say in closing is,
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I tako je to kraj. I sve što mogu reći na kraju,
07:23
we heard yesterday that one of the 10 bad things that could happen to us
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čuli smo jučer da je jedna od loših stvari koja nam se može dogoditi
07:27
is an asteroid with our name on it.
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je asteroid s našim imenom na sebi.
07:29
And one of the bad things that could happen to NASA
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I jedna od loših stvari koja bi se mogla desiti NASA-i
07:32
is if that asteroid shows up with our name on it nine months out
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je da se pojavi asteroid s našim imenom udaljen devet mjeseci,
07:35
and everybody says, "Well, what are we going to do?"
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i da svi vele "Dobro, što ćemo sad napraviti? "
07:38
And Orion is really one of the only, if not the only,
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I Orion je stvarno jedna, ako ne i jedina,
07:42
off-the-shelf technologies that could do something. (Laughter)
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razvijana tehnologija koja je mogla napraviti nešto.
07:48
So I'm going to tell you the good news and the bad news.
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Tako da ću vam morati reći dobru i lošu vijest.
07:50
The good news is that NASA has a small, secret
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Dobra vijest je da NASA ima mali, tajni
07:55
contingency plan division that is looking at this,
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prikriveni odjel koji ovo razmatra,
07:58
trying to keep knowledge of Orion preserved in the event of such a misfortune.
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i pokušava sačuvati znanje Oriona za ovakav nesretan slučaj.
08:03
Maybe keep a few little bombs of plutonium on the side.
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Možda da stavi par malih bombi plutoniuma sa strane.
08:06
That's the good news. The bad news is,
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To je dobra vijest. Loša vijest je,
08:08
when I got in contact with these people
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da kad sam kontaktirao te ljude
08:10
to try and get some documents from them,
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i probao dobiti neke dokumente od njeh,
08:12
they went crazy because I had all this stuff that they don't have,
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poludjeli su, jer sam ja imao sve te stvari koje oni nisu.
08:15
and NASA purchased 1,759 pages of this stuff from me. (Laughter)
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I NASA je kupila 1,759 stranica tih stvari od mene.
08:20
So that's the state we're at: it's not very good.
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I to je stanje u kojem smo. To nije -- nije baš dobro.
08:24
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
George Dyson - Historian of scienceIn telling stories of technologies and the individuals who created them, George Dyson takes a clear-eyed view of our scientific past -- while illuminating what lies ahead.
Why you should listen
The development of the Aleutian kayak, its adaptation by Russians in the 18th and 19th centuries, and his own redevelopment of the craft in the 1970s was chronicled in George Dyson’s Baidarka: The Kayak of 1986. His 1997 Darwin Among the Machines: The Evolution of Global Intelligence (“the last book about the Internet written without the Internet”) explored the history and prehistory of digital computing and telecommunications as a manifestation of the convergent destiny of organisms and machines.
Project Orion: The True Story of the Atomic Spaceship, published in 2002, assembled first-person interviews and recently declassified documents to tell the story of a path not taken into space: a nuclear-powered spaceship whose objective was to land a party of 100 people on Mars four years before we landed two people on the Moon. Turing's Cathedral: The Origins of the Digital Universe, published in 2012, illuminated the transition from numbers that mean things to numbers that do things in the aftermath of World War II.
Dyson’s current project, Analogia, is a semi-autobiographical reflection on how analog computation is re-establishing control over the digital world.
George Dyson | Speaker | TED.com