TED2018
Stephen Webb: Where are all the aliens?
Stephen Webb: Kje so vsi Nezemljani?
Filmed:
Readability: 5
5,111,570 views
Vesolje je neverjetno staro, osupljivo velikansko in naseljeno z bilijoni planetov - kje so torej vsi Nezemljani? Astronom Stephen Webb ima razlago: sami smo v vesolju. V svojem razlagalnem govoru navaja izredne prepreke, ki bi jih planet moral premagati, da bi lahko bil dom izvenzemeljski civilizaciji, ter prikaže lepoto naše potencialne kozmične samote. "Tišina vesolja kriči - mi smo tisti, ki se jim je posrečilo", pravi Webb.
Stephen Webb - Writer, scientist
Stephen Webb is a science fiction fan who's passionately interested in what the future might hold for our species. Full bio
Stephen Webb is a science fiction fan who's passionately interested in what the future might hold for our species. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
I saw a UFO once.
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Nekoč sem videl NLP.
Star sem bil osem ali devet let,
00:15
I was eight or nine,
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s prijateljem, ki je bil nekaj let
starejši, sem se igral na ulici
starejši, sem se igral na ulici
00:17
playing in the street with a friend
who was a couple of years older,
who was a couple of years older,
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00:20
and we saw a featureless silver disc
hovering over the houses.
hovering over the houses.
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in videla sva pust srebrn disk,
ki je lebdel nad hišami.
ki je lebdel nad hišami.
Nekaj sekund sva ga gledala,
00:25
We watched it for a few seconds,
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00:27
and then it shot away incredibly quickly.
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nato pa se je neverjetno hitro
izstrelil stran.
izstrelil stran.
00:30
Even as a kid,
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Celo kot otroka
me je jezilo, ker je ignoriral vse
fizikalne zakone.
fizikalne zakone.
00:31
I got angry it was ignoring
the laws of physics.
the laws of physics.
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00:35
We ran inside to tell the grown-ups,
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Stekla sva noter, da bi povedala odraslim,
00:37
and they were skeptical --
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in bili so skeptični ...
00:39
you'd be skeptical too, right?
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Tudi vi bi bili skeptični, kajne?
Nekaj let kasneje sem bil tudi jaz.
00:42
I got my own back a few years later:
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Eden od tistih odraslih
mi je rekel:
mi je rekel:
00:43
one of those grown-ups told me,
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"Sinoči sem videl NLP.
00:45
"Last night I saw a flying saucer.
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Vračal sem se iz gostilne
po nekaj kozarčkih."
po nekaj kozarčkih."
00:47
I was coming out of the pub
after a few drinks."
after a few drinks."
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Ustavil sem ga in rekel:
"To videnje pa lahko razložim."
"To videnje pa lahko razložim."
00:49
I stopped him there.
I said, "I can explain that sighting."
I said, "I can explain that sighting."
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00:52
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
00:53
Psychologists have shown
we can't trust our brains
we can't trust our brains
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Psihologi so pokazali, da možganom
ne moremo zaupati, da nam
ne moremo zaupati, da nam
00:56
to tell the truth.
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bodo povedali resnico.
00:57
It's easy to fool ourselves.
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Z lahkoto nas preslepijo.
00:59
I saw something,
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Nekaj sem videl,
01:01
but what's more likely --
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ampak kaj je bolj verjetno:
01:02
that I saw an alien spacecraft,
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da sem videl neznano plovilo
ali da so moji možgani
ali da so moji možgani
01:04
or that my brain misinterpreted
the data my eyes were giving it?
the data my eyes were giving it?
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napačno interpretirali podatke,
ki so jim jih poslale moje oči?
ki so jim jih poslale moje oči?
01:10
Ever since though I've wondered:
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Pa vendar se od takrat sprašujem,
01:11
Why don't we see
flying saucers flitting around?
flying saucers flitting around?
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zakaj okoli sebe ne vidimo
švigati letečih krožnikov?
švigati letečih krožnikov?
01:14
At the very least,
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Zakaj vsaj ne vidimo
01:16
why don't we see life
out there in the cosmos?
out there in the cosmos?
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življenja tam zunaj v kozmosu?
01:18
It's a puzzle,
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To je uganka,
01:20
and I've discussed it
with dozens of experts
with dozens of experts
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o kateri v zadnjih treh desetletjih
diskutiramo
diskutiramo
01:22
from different disciplines
over the past three decades.
over the past three decades.
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z na desetine strokovnjaki
z različnih področij.
z različnih področij.
In ne pridemo do soglasja.
01:25
And there's no consensus.
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01:27
Frank Drake began searching
for alien signals back in 1960 --
for alien signals back in 1960 --
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Frank Drake je začel že leta 1960
iskati nezemljanske signale,
iskati nezemljanske signale,
01:32
so far, nothing.
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pa do danes - nič.
01:34
And with each passing year,
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In z vsakim minulim letom
01:35
this nonobservation,
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ta nezasleditev,
01:37
this lack of evidence
for any alien activity gets more puzzling
for any alien activity gets more puzzling
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to pomanjkanje dokazov nezemeljske
aktivnosti postane bolj begajoče,
aktivnosti postane bolj begajoče,
01:42
because we should see them, shouldn't we?
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ker bi jih vendar morali videti, kajne?
01:47
The universe is 13.8 billion years old,
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Vesolje je staro približno
13,8 milijard let.
01:50
give or take.
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Če predstavimo starost vesolja
z enim letom,
z enim letom,
01:52
If we represent the age
of the universe by one year,
of the universe by one year,
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01:55
then our species came into being
about 12 minutes before midnight,
about 12 minutes before midnight,
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je naša vrsta nastala
približno 12 minut pred polnočjo
približno 12 minut pred polnočjo
02:00
31st December.
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31. decembra.
02:02
Western civilization
has existed for a few seconds.
has existed for a few seconds.
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Zahodna civilizacija obstaja
nekaj sekund.
nekaj sekund.
02:05
Extraterrestrial civilizations
could have started in the summer months.
could have started in the summer months.
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Izvenzemeljske civilizacije
bi se lahko začele v poletnih mesecih.
bi se lahko začele v poletnih mesecih.
02:10
Imagine a summer civilization
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Predstavljajte si poletno civilizacijo,
02:13
developing a level of technology
more advanced than ours,
more advanced than ours,
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kako razvija tehnologijo,
ki je mnogo bolj napredna od naše,
ki je mnogo bolj napredna od naše,
02:17
but tech based on accepted physics though,
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a temelji na sprejeti fiziki,
02:19
I'm not talking wormholes
or warp drives -- whatever --
or warp drives -- whatever --
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ne govorim o črvinah
ali warp pogonu ali čemer koli že,
ali warp pogonu ali čemer koli že,
02:23
just an extrapolation
of the sort of tech that TED celebrates.
of the sort of tech that TED celebrates.
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samo ekstrapolacija neke
vrste tehnologije, ki jo slavi TED.
vrste tehnologije, ki jo slavi TED.
02:28
That civilization could program
self-replicating probes
self-replicating probes
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Ta civilizacija bi lahko programirala
samopodvojevalne vesoljske kapsule,
samopodvojevalne vesoljske kapsule,
02:32
to visit every planetary
system in the galaxy.
system in the galaxy.
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da bi obiskala vse
planetarne sisteme v galaksiji.
planetarne sisteme v galaksiji.
02:35
If they launched the first probes
just after midnight one August day,
just after midnight one August day,
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Če bi prve sonde lansirali malo
po polnoči nekega avgustovskega dne,
po polnoči nekega avgustovskega dne,
02:41
then before breakfast same day,
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bi pred zajtrkom istega dne
02:43
they could have colonized the galaxy.
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že lahko kolonizirali galaksijo.
02:46
Intergalactic colonization
isn't much more difficult,
isn't much more difficult,
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Intergalaktična kolonizacija
ni veliko težja,
ni veliko težja,
02:49
it just takes longer.
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samo dlje traja.
02:51
A civilization from any one
of millions of galaxies
of millions of galaxies
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Civilizacija iz katere koli
od milijona galaksij
od milijona galaksij
02:54
could have colonized our galaxy.
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bi lahko kolonizirala
našo galaksijo.
našo galaksijo.
02:56
Seems far-fetched?
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Se zdi za lase privlečeno?
02:58
Maybe it is,
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Morda je,
ampak ali se ne bi Nezemljani
lotili kake prepoznavne aktivnosti ...
lotili kake prepoznavne aktivnosti ...
02:59
but wouldn't aliens engage
in some recognizable activity --
in some recognizable activity --
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03:05
put worldlets around a star
to capture free sunlight,
to capture free sunlight,
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okoli zvezde bi nanizali planetoide,
da bi ujeli zastonj svetlobo,
da bi ujeli zastonj svetlobo,
03:09
collaborate on a Wikipedia Galactica,
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sodelovali pri Wikipediji Galaktiki
03:12
or just shout out
to the universe, "We're here"?
to the universe, "We're here"?
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ali preprosto zakričali v vesolje:
"Tukaj smo!"?
"Tukaj smo!"?
03:16
So where is everybody?
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Kje so torej vsi?
03:18
It's a puzzle because we do expect
these civilizations to exist, don't we?
these civilizations to exist, don't we?
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To je uganka, ker pričakujemo,
da te civilizacije obstajajo, kajne?
da te civilizacije obstajajo, kajne?
03:24
After all, there could be
a trillion planets in the galaxy --
a trillion planets in the galaxy --
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Konec koncev je lahko v galaksiji
bilijon planetov,
bilijon planetov,
03:27
maybe more.
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mogoče več.
03:29
You don't need any special knowledge
to consider this question,
to consider this question,
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Nobenega posebnega znanja ne potrebujete,
da razmislite o tem vprašanju.
da razmislite o tem vprašanju.
03:34
and I've explored it
with lots of people over the years.
with lots of people over the years.
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Jaz sem ga leta in leta raziskoval
z mnogimi ljudmi.
z mnogimi ljudmi.
03:37
And I've found they often
frame their thinking
frame their thinking
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Ugotovil sem, da pogosto
omejujejo svoje razmišljanje
omejujejo svoje razmišljanje
03:40
in terms of the barriers
that would need to be cleared
that would need to be cleared
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s preprekami, ki bi jih bilo
potrebno odstraniti,
potrebno odstraniti,
03:44
if a planet is to host
a communicative civilization.
a communicative civilization.
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če bi naj nek planet
bil dom komunikativne civilizacije.
bil dom komunikativne civilizacije.
03:49
And they usually identify
four key barriers.
four key barriers.
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In ponavadi identificirajo
štiri ključne prepreke:
štiri ključne prepreke:
03:52
Habitability --
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bivalnost,
03:54
that's the first barrier.
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to je prva prepreka.
03:55
We need a terrestrial planet
in that just right "Goldilocks zone,"
in that just right "Goldilocks zone,"
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Potrebujemo zemeljski planet
v tisti ravno pravi idealni coni,
v tisti ravno pravi idealni coni,
04:00
where water flows as a liquid.
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kjer voda teče kot tekočina.
04:03
They're out there.
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Taki obstajajo.
04:04
In 2016, astronomers confirmed
there's a planet in the habitable zone
there's a planet in the habitable zone
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Leta 2016 so astronomi potrdili,
da obstaja planet v naseljivi coni
da obstaja planet v naseljivi coni
04:09
of the closest star,
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najbližje zvezde,
04:10
Proxima Centauri --
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Proxima Centauri,
04:12
so close that Breakthrough Starshot
project plans to send probes there.
project plans to send probes there.
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tako blizu, da bo projekt Breakthrough
Starshot tja poslal vesoljske kapsule.
Starshot tja poslal vesoljske kapsule.
04:17
We'd become a starfaring species.
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Postali bi civilizacija,
ki potuje med zvezdami.
ki potuje med zvezdami.
04:21
But not all worlds are habitable.
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A vsi svetovi niso naseljivi.
Nekateri bodo preblizu zvezdi
in se bodo scvrli.
in se bodo scvrli.
04:23
Some will be too close to a star
and they'll fry,
and they'll fry,
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Nekateri bodo predaleč in
bodo zmrznili.
bodo zmrznili.
04:25
some will be too far away
and they'll freeze.
and they'll freeze.
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04:28
Abiogenesis --
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Abiogeneza,
04:30
the creation of life from nonlife --
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ustvarjanje življenja iz neživljenja,
04:31
that's the second barrier.
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je druga prepreka.
04:34
The basic building blocks of life
aren't unique to Earth:
aren't unique to Earth:
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Osnovni gradniki življenja
niso značilni le za Zemljo.
niso značilni le za Zemljo.
04:37
amino acids have been found in comets,
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Aminokisline smo našli tudi na kometih,
04:40
complex organic molecules
in interstellar dust clouds,
in interstellar dust clouds,
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kompleksne organske molekule
v medzvezdnih oblakih prahu,
v medzvezdnih oblakih prahu,
04:43
water in exoplanetary systems.
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vodo v zunajosončnih sistemih.
Sestavine so na voljo,
04:47
The ingredients are there,
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a ne vemo, kako se skombinirajo,
da usvarijo življenje.
da usvarijo življenje.
04:48
we just don't know
how they combine to create life,
how they combine to create life,
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04:51
and presumably there will be worlds
on which life doesn't start.
on which life doesn't start.
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Domnevno obstajajo tudi svetovi,
na katerih se življenje ne začne.
na katerih se življenje ne začne.
04:55
The development of technological
civilization is a third barrier.
civilization is a third barrier.
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Razvoj tehnološke civilizacije
je tretja prepreka.
je tretja prepreka.
05:00
Some say we already share our planet
with alien intelligences.
with alien intelligences.
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Nekateri pravijo, da že delimo planet
z izvenzemeljsko inteligenco.
z izvenzemeljsko inteligenco.
05:05
A 2011 study showed that elephants
can cooperate to solve problems.
can cooperate to solve problems.
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Študija iz l. 2011 je pokazala, da
sloni sodelujejo, da rešijo probleme.
sloni sodelujejo, da rešijo probleme.
05:10
A 2010 study showed
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Študija iz l. 2010 je pokazala,
05:12
that an octopus in captivity
can recognize different humans.
can recognize different humans.
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da lahko hobotnica v ujetništvu
prepozna različne ljudi.
prepozna različne ljudi.
05:17
2017 studies show that ravens
can plan for future events --
can plan for future events --
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Študije iz l. 2017 so pokazale,
da znajo vrane načrtovati za prihodnost -
da znajo vrane načrtovati za prihodnost -
05:21
wonderful, clever creatures --
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čudovita, pametna bitja -
05:24
but they can't contemplate
the Breakthrough Starshot project,
the Breakthrough Starshot project,
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a ne morejo ustvariti
projekta Breakthrough Starshot
projekta Breakthrough Starshot
05:27
and if we vanished today,
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in če bi danes izginili,
05:29
they wouldn't go on
to implement Breakthrough Starshot --
to implement Breakthrough Starshot --
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ne bi uporabile projekta
Breakthrough Starshot -
Breakthrough Starshot -
05:32
why should they?
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zakaj bi ga?
05:33
Evolution doesn't have
space travel as an end goal.
space travel as an end goal.
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Končni cilj evolucije
ni vesoljsko potovanje.
ni vesoljsko potovanje.
05:37
There will be worlds where life
doesn't give rise to advanced technology.
doesn't give rise to advanced technology.
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Obstajajo svetovi, kjer življenje
ne ustvarja napredne tehnologije.
ne ustvarja napredne tehnologije.
05:43
Communication across space --
that's a fourth barrier.
that's a fourth barrier.
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Komunikacija po vesolju,
to je četrta prepreka.
to je četrta prepreka.
05:45
Maybe advanced civilizations
choose to explore inner space
choose to explore inner space
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Morda napredne civilizacije raje
raziskujejo bližnje vesolje
raziskujejo bližnje vesolje
05:49
rather than outer space,
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kot pa daljnje vesolje
05:52
or engineer at small distances
rather than large.
rather than large.
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ali pa raje konstruirajo za
manjše razdalje, ne večje.
manjše razdalje, ne večje.
05:56
Or maybe they just don't want
to risk an encounter
to risk an encounter
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Ali mogoče preprosto nočejo
tvegati srečanja
tvegati srečanja
05:59
with a potentially more advanced
and hostile neighbor.
and hostile neighbor.
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s potencialno naprednejšim
in sovražnejšim sosedom.
in sovražnejšim sosedom.
06:03
There'll be worlds where,
for whatever reason,
for whatever reason,
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Obstajajo svetovi, kjer civilizacije
iz katerih koli razlogov
iz katerih koli razlogov
06:05
civilizations either stay silent
or don't spend long trying to communicate.
or don't spend long trying to communicate.
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ali želijo biti tiho ali pa ne poskušajo
komunicirati dolgo.
komunicirati dolgo.
06:12
As for the height of the barriers,
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Kar se tiče največjih preprek,
06:14
your guess is as good as anyone's.
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lahko ugibate tako kot jaz.
06:18
In my experience,
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Po mojih izkušnjah
06:19
when people sit down and do the math,
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ljudje, ko sedejo in računajo,
06:21
they typically conclude there are
thousands of civilizations in the galaxy.
thousands of civilizations in the galaxy.
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tipično zaključijo, da je v galaksiji
na tisoče civilizacij.
na tisoče civilizacij.
06:27
But then we're back to the puzzle:
Where is everybody?
Where is everybody?
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Pa smo spet pri uganki: kje so vsi?
06:32
By definition,
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Definicija pravi, da so NLP-ji,
06:33
UFOs -- including the one I saw --
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vključno s tistim, ki sem ga jaz videl,
06:35
are unidentified.
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neidentificirani.
06:37
We can't simply infer they're spacecraft.
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Ne moremo kar sklepati,
da so vesoljska plovila.
da so vesoljska plovila.
06:40
You can still have some fun
playing with the idea aliens are here.
playing with the idea aliens are here.
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Še vedno se lahko malo pozabavate
z idejo, da obstajajo Nezemljani.
z idejo, da obstajajo Nezemljani.
06:45
Some say a summer civilization
did colonize the galaxy
did colonize the galaxy
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Nekateri pravijo, da je neka poletna
civilizacija kolonizirala galaksijo
civilizacija kolonizirala galaksijo
06:48
and seeded Earth with life ...
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in na Zemlji zasejala življenje.
06:51
others, that we're living
in a cosmic wilderness preserve --
in a cosmic wilderness preserve --
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Drugi pravijo, da živimo v
divjem kozmičnem rezervatu,
divjem kozmičnem rezervatu,
06:54
a zoo.
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živalskem vrtu.
06:56
Yet others --
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In tretji pravijo,
06:58
that we're living in a simulation.
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da živimo v simulaciji.
07:00
Programmers just haven't
revealed the aliens yet.
revealed the aliens yet.
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Programerji samo še niso
razkrili Nezemljanov.
razkrili Nezemljanov.
07:03
Most of my colleagues though
argue that E.T. is out there,
argue that E.T. is out there,
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Večina mojih kolegov trdi,
da E.T. obstaja,
da E.T. obstaja,
07:08
we just need to keep looking,
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samo poiskati ga moramo,
07:09
and this makes sense.
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in to je smiselno.
07:11
Space is vast.
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Vesolje je prostrano.
07:13
Identifying a signal is hard,
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Identificirati signal je težko
07:15
and we haven't been looking that long.
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in ne iščemo še dolgo.
07:19
Without doubt, we should
spend more on the search.
spend more on the search.
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Nedvomno bi morali za
iskanje zapraviti več.
iskanje zapraviti več.
07:22
It's about understanding
our place in the universe.
our place in the universe.
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Gre za razumevanje,
kaj v vesolju pomenimo.
kaj v vesolju pomenimo.
07:25
It's too important a question to ignore.
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To vprašanje je preveč pomembno,
da bi ga ignorirali.
da bi ga ignorirali.
07:29
But there's an obvious answer:
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A obstaja očiten odgovor:
07:31
we're alone.
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sami smo.
07:33
It's just us.
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Samo mi smo.
07:34
There could be a trillion
planets in the galaxy.
planets in the galaxy.
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V galaksiji lahko obstaja
bilijon planetov.
bilijon planetov.
07:38
Is it plausible we're the only creatures
capable of contemplating this question?
capable of contemplating this question?
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Ali je verjetno, da smo edina bitja,
sposobna razmišljati o tem vprašanju?
sposobna razmišljati o tem vprašanju?
07:43
Well, yes, because in this context,
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No, da, ker v tem kontekstu
07:46
we don't know whether
a trillion is a big number.
a trillion is a big number.
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ne vemo, ali je bilijon velika številka.
07:50
In 2000, Peter Ward and Don Brownlee
proposed the Rare Earth idea.
proposed the Rare Earth idea.
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L. 2000 sta Peter Ward in Don Brownlee
prišla na plan z idejo Rare Earth.
prišla na plan z idejo Rare Earth.
07:55
Remember those four barriers
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Se spomnite tistih štirih preprek,
07:57
that people use to estimate
the number of civilizations?
the number of civilizations?
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s katerimi ljudje ocenjujejo
število civilizacij?
število civilizacij?
08:01
Ward and Brownlee said
there might be more.
there might be more.
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Ward in Brownlee sta
rekla, da jih je morda več.
rekla, da jih je morda več.
08:03
Let's look at one possible barrier.
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Poglejto si eno možno prepreko.
08:05
It's a recent suggestion by David Waltham,
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Gre za nedavni predlog Davida Walthama,
08:08
a geophysicist.
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geofizika.
08:10
This is my very simplified version
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To je moja zelo poenostavljena verzija
08:12
of Dave's much more
sophisticated argument.
sophisticated argument.
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Davidovega mnogo bolj
sofisticiranega argumenta.
sofisticiranega argumenta.
08:16
We are able to be here now
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Tu smo lahko,
08:18
because Earth's previous
inhabitants enjoyed
inhabitants enjoyed
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ker so Zemljini prejšnji
prebivalci uživali
prebivalci uživali
08:20
four billion years of good weather --
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štiri milijarde let lepega vremena -
08:23
ups and downs but more or less clement.
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boljšega in slabšega, a bolj
kot ne blagega.
kot ne blagega.
08:26
But long-term climate
stability is strange,
stability is strange,
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A dolgoročna vremenska
stabilnost je čudna,
stabilnost je čudna,
08:29
if only because astronomical influences
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če ne zaradi drugega, zato;
ker lahko astronomski vplivi
ker lahko astronomski vplivi
08:31
can push a planet
towards freezing or frying.
towards freezing or frying.
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potisnejo planet proti
zamrznitvi ali cvrenju.
zamrznitvi ali cvrenju.
08:36
There's a hint our moon has helped,
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Namig - naša Luna je pomagala,
08:38
and that's interesting
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kar je zanimivo,
08:40
because the prevailing theory is
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saj prevladujoča teorija pravi,
08:42
that the moon came into being when Theia,
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da je Luna nastala, ko se je Theia,
08:44
a body the size of Mars,
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gmota, velika kot Mars,
08:46
crashed into a newly formed Earth.
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zaletela v novo formirano Zemljo.
08:49
The outcome of that crash could have been
a quite different Earth-Moon system.
a quite different Earth-Moon system.
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Izid trka bi lahko bil precej drugačen
sistem Zemlja - Luna.
sistem Zemlja - Luna.
08:54
We ended up with a large moon
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Tako pa je nastala velika Luna,
08:56
and that permitted Earth
to have both a stable axial tilt
to have both a stable axial tilt
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kar je omogočilo Zemlji, da ima
tako stabilno nagnjenost osi
tako stabilno nagnjenost osi
09:00
and a slow rotation rate.
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kot tudi majhno hitrost rotacije.
09:03
Both factors influence climate
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Oba faktorja vplivata na podnebje
09:05
and the suggestion is that they've helped
moderate climate change.
moderate climate change.
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in možno je, da sta pomagala
oblikovati zmerne podnebne spremembe.
oblikovati zmerne podnebne spremembe.
09:09
Great for us, right?
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Super za nas, kajne?
09:11
But Waltham showed that if the moon
were just a few miles bigger,
were just a few miles bigger,
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A Waltham je pokazal, da če bi bila
Luna samo nekaj milj večja,
Luna samo nekaj milj večja,
09:15
things would be different.
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bi bile stvari drugačne.
09:16
Earth's spin axis
would now wander chaotically.
would now wander chaotically.
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Zemljina os vrtenja bi kaotično uhajala.
09:20
There'd be episodes
of rapid climate change --
of rapid climate change --
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Bili bi trenutki
hitrih klimatskih sprememb,
hitrih klimatskih sprememb,
09:23
not good for complex life.
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ki niso dobri za kompleksno življenje.
09:25
The moon is just the right size:
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Luna je ravno prave velikosti:
09:27
big but not too big.
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velika, a ne prevelika.
09:30
A "Goldilocks" moon around
a "Goldilocks" planet --
a "Goldilocks" planet --
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Idealna luna okoli idealnega planeta -
09:33
a barrier perhaps.
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morda prepreka.
09:35
You can imagine more barriers.
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Lahko si predstavljate še več preprek.
09:37
For instance,
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Na primer,
09:38
simple cells came into being
billions of years ago ...
billions of years ago ...
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preproste celice so se pojavile
pred milijardami let,
pred milijardami let,
09:42
but perhaps the development
of complex life
of complex life
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a morda je razvoj kompleksnega življenja
09:45
needed a series of unlikely events.
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potreboval serijo malo verjetnih dogodkov.
09:48
Once life on Earth
had access to multicellularity
had access to multicellularity
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Ko je enkrat življenje na Zemlji
imelo dostop do večceličnosti,
imelo dostop do večceličnosti,
09:51
and sophisticated genetic structures,
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sofisticiranih genetskih struktur
in spola,
09:53
and sex,
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so se odprle nove možnosti:
09:54
new opportunities opened up:
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možne so postale živali.
09:56
animals became possible.
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09:58
But maybe it's the fate of many planets
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A mogoče je usoda mnogih planetov,
10:01
for life to settle
at the level of simple cells.
at the level of simple cells.
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da se življenje ustavi na stopnji
preprostih celic.
preprostih celic.
10:06
Purely for the purposes of illustration,
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Samo za namen ponazoritve
10:09
let me suggest four more barriers
to add to the four
to add to the four
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naj predlagam še štiri prepreke
kot dodatek štirim,
kot dodatek štirim,
10:12
that people said blocked the path
to communicative civilization.
to communicative civilization.
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za katere pravijo, da so preprečile
pot do komunikativnih civilizacij.
pot do komunikativnih civilizacij.
10:17
Again, purely for the purposes
of illustration,
of illustration,
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Spet, samo za namen ponazoritve,
si predstavljajte,
si predstavljajte,
10:21
suppose there's a one-in-a-thousand chance
of making it across each of the barriers.
of making it across each of the barriers.
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da obstaja možnost 1 proti 1000,
da se premaga vsako od teh preprek.
da se premaga vsako od teh preprek.
10:25
Of course there might be
different ways of navigating the barriers,
different ways of navigating the barriers,
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Seveda lahko obstajajo različni
načini navigiranja med preprekami
načini navigiranja med preprekami
in nekatere možnosti bodo
boljše kot 1 proti 1000.
boljše kot 1 proti 1000.
10:28
and some chances will be better
than one in a thousand.
than one in a thousand.
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Prav tako lahko obstaja več preprek
10:31
Equally, there might be more barriers
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in nekatere možnosti bodo lahko
1 proti milijon.
1 proti milijon.
10:33
and some chances
might be one in a million.
might be one in a million.
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10:35
Let's just see
what happens in this picture.
what happens in this picture.
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Pa poglejmo, kaj se zdaj zgodi.
10:39
If the galaxy contains a trillion planets,
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Če galaksija vsebuje bilijon planetov,
10:41
how many will host a civilization
capable of contemplating like us
capable of contemplating like us
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koliko jih je dom civilizaciji, ki si je
sposobna kot mi izmisliti
sposobna kot mi izmisliti
10:47
projects such as Breakthrough Starshot?
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projekte, kot je Breakthrough Starshot?
10:50
Habitability --
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Bivalnost -
10:51
right sort of planet
around the right sort of star --
around the right sort of star --
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prava vrsta planeta
okoli prave vrste zvezde -
okoli prave vrste zvezde -
10:54
the trillion becomes a billion.
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in bilijon postane milijarda.
10:56
Stability --
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Stabilnost -
10:58
a climate that stays benign for eons --
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podnebje, ki ostane neškodljivo eone let -
11:01
the billion becomes a million.
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in milijarda postane milijon.
11:03
Life must start --
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Življenje se mora začeti -
11:05
the million becomes a thousand.
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in milijon postane tisoč.
11:07
Complex life forms must arise --
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Nastati mora kompleksno življenje -
11:10
the thousand becomes one.
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in tisoč postane ena.
11:12
Sophisticated tool use must develop --
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Razviti se mora uporaba
sofisticiranih orodij -
sofisticiranih orodij -
11:14
that's one planet in a thousand galaxies.
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in imamo en planet v tisoč galaksijah.
11:17
To understand the universe,
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Da bi razumeli vesolje,
11:19
they'll have to develop the techniques
of science and mathematics --
of science and mathematics --
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bi morali razviti tehniki znanosti
in matematike -
in matematike -
11:22
that's one planet in a million galaxies.
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in imamo en planet v milijon galaksijah.
11:24
To reach the stars,
they'll have to be social creatures,
they'll have to be social creatures,
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Da bi dosegli zvezde,
bi morali biti družabna bitja,
bi morali biti družabna bitja,
11:27
capable of discussing
abstract concepts with each other
abstract concepts with each other
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sposobna diskusije o abstraktnih konceptih
11:29
using complex grammar --
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z uporabo kompleksne slovnice -
11:31
one planet in a billion galaxies.
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en planet v milijardi galaksij.
11:35
And they have to avoid disaster --
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In morali bi se izogniti katastrofam -
11:36
not just self-inflicted
but from the skies, too.
but from the skies, too.
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ne le zadanih sebi, ampak tudi z neba.
11:40
That planet around Proxima Centauri,
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Tisti planet okoli Proxime Centauri
11:43
last year it got blasted by a flare.
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je lani ožgal plamen.
11:47
One planet in a trillion galaxies,
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En planet v bilijonu galaksij,
11:49
just as in the visible universe.
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kot jih tudi je v vidnem vesolju.
11:54
I think we're alone.
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Mislim, da smo sami.
11:57
Those colleagues of mine
who agree we're alone
who agree we're alone
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Tisti moji kolegi, ki se
strinjajo, da smo sami,
strinjajo, da smo sami,
11:59
often see a barrier ahead --
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pogosto pred sabo vidijo prepreko -
12:02
bioterror,
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biološki terorizem,
12:04
global warming, war.
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globalno segrevanje, vojne.
12:06
A universe that's silent
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Vesolje, ki je tiho,
12:09
because technology itself
forms the barrier
forms the barrier
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ker sama tehnologija predstavlja prepreko
12:12
to the development
of a truly advanced civilization.
of a truly advanced civilization.
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za razvoj resnično napredne civilizacije.
12:16
Depressing, right?
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Depresivno, kajne?
12:19
I'm arguing the exact opposite.
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Jaz trdim prav nasprotno.
12:22
I grew up watching "Star Trek"
and "Forbidden Planet,"
and "Forbidden Planet,"
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Odrastel sem ob Zvezdnih stezah
in Prepovedanem planetu
in Prepovedanem planetu
12:25
and I saw a UFO once,
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in enkrat sem videl NLP,
12:26
so this idea of cosmic loneliness
I certainly find slightly wistful.
I certainly find slightly wistful.
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tako da se mi ideja kozmične
samote zdi malce turobna.
samote zdi malce turobna.
12:34
But for me,
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A meni
12:36
the silence of the universe is shouting,
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tišina vesolja kriči:
"Mi smo tisti, ki se nam je posrečilo."
12:38
"We're the creatures who got lucky."
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12:40
All barriers are behind us.
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Vse prepreke so za nami.
12:42
We're the only species
that's cleared them --
that's cleared them --
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Mi smo edina vrsta, ki jih je premagala -
12:45
the only species capable
of determining its own destiny.
of determining its own destiny.
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edina vrsta, ki je bila
sposobna določiti lastno usodo.
sposobna določiti lastno usodo.
12:49
And if we learn to appreciate
how special our planet is,
how special our planet is,
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In če se naučimo ceniti,
kako poseben je naš planet,
kako poseben je naš planet,
12:53
how important it is to look after our home
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kako pomembno je paziti na svoj dom
12:56
and to find others,
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in najti druge,
12:57
how incredibly fortunate we all are
simply to be aware of the universe,
simply to be aware of the universe,
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kako izjemno srečo imamo,
ker se zavedamo vesolja,
ker se zavedamo vesolja,
13:02
humanity might survive for a while.
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bo človeštvo morda obstalo še nekaj časa.
13:05
And all those amazing things
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In vse te izjemne stvari,
13:06
we dreamed aliens
might have done in the past,
might have done in the past,
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ki bi jih naj v preteklosti
morda naredili Nezemljani,
morda naredili Nezemljani,
13:09
that could be our future.
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so lahko naša prihodnost.
13:11
Thank you very much.
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Hvala lepa.
13:12
(Applause)
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(aplavz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Stephen Webb - Writer, scientistStephen Webb is a science fiction fan who's passionately interested in what the future might hold for our species.
Why you should listen
An early preoccupation with science fiction ended up influencing most of Stephen Webb's professional activity. It instilled in him a deep love of science and the scientific endeavor, which in turn led him to complete a PhD in theoretical particle physics. Isaac Asimov's story "The Fun They Had," about computerized homeschooling, prompted him to consider how digital technology might deepen students' learning, which in turn led to posts in a variety of UK universities.
And it was in the pages of a science fiction magazine that he first encountered the Fermi paradox, which kindled a lifelong fascination with the problem of why we see no signs of extraterrestrial intelligence -- and led to his book Where Is Everybody, which explores the question in detail. Webb hopes to pass on his love of science through his outreach work, and he is the author of a number of popular science books. He is working on New Light Through Old Windows, an anthology of classic science fiction tales; each tale appears alongside a commentary detailing the latest scientific thinking relating to the story's theme.
Stephen Webb | Speaker | TED.com