TEDSalon NY2011
Shlomo Benartzi: Saving for tomorrow, tomorrow
Šlomo Benarci (Shlomo Benartzi): Štedeti za sutra - sutra
Filmed:
Readability: 3.2
1,754,678 views
Lako je zamisliti štednju novca sledeće nedelje, ali zašto ne odmah? Obično želimo da ga potrošimo. Ekonomista Šlomo Benarci ovo smatra jednom od najvećih prepreka dovoljnoj štednji pred penziju i postavlja pitanje: kako da promenimo ovaj bihejvioristički izazov u bihejviorističko rešenje?
Shlomo Benartzi - Economist
Shlomo Benartzi uses behavioral economics to study how and why we plan well for the future (or fail to), and uses that to develop new programs to encourage saving for retirement. Full bio
Shlomo Benartzi uses behavioral economics to study how and why we plan well for the future (or fail to), and uses that to develop new programs to encourage saving for retirement. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I'm going to talk today about saving more,
0
0
3000
Danas ću pričati o tome kako štedeti više,
00:18
but not today, tomorrow.
1
3000
3000
ali ne danas, sutra.
00:21
I'm going to talk about Save More Tomorrow.
2
6000
2000
Pričaću o "Uštedite više sutra".
00:23
It's a program that Richard Thaler
3
8000
2000
Reč je o programu koji smo Ričard Taler,
00:25
from the University of Chicago and I
4
10000
2000
sa Univerziteta u Čikagu, i ja
00:27
devised maybe 15 years ago.
5
12000
3000
osmislili pre nekih 15 godina.
00:30
The program, in a sense,
6
15000
2000
Program je, na neki način,
00:32
is an example of behavioral finance
7
17000
2000
primer bihejviorističkih finansija
00:34
on steroids --
8
19000
2000
na steroidima --
00:36
how we could really use behavioral finance.
9
21000
3000
kako zaista iskoristiti bihejviorističke finansije.
00:39
Now you might ask, what is behavioral finance?
10
24000
3000
Možda ćete se zapitati, šta su bihejviorističke finansije?
00:42
So let's think about how we manage our money.
11
27000
3000
Zato razmislimo kako upravljamo svojim novcem.
00:45
Let's start with mortgages.
12
30000
3000
Počnimo od hipoteka.
00:48
It's kind of a recent topic,
13
33000
2000
To je prilično bliska tema,
00:50
at least in the U.S.
14
35000
2000
barem u SAD.
00:52
A lot of people buy
15
37000
2000
Mnogi ljudi kupuju
00:54
the biggest house they can afford,
16
39000
3000
najveću kuću koju mogu da priušte,
00:57
and actually slightly bigger than that.
17
42000
3000
pa čak i malo veću od toga.
01:00
And then they foreclose.
18
45000
3000
I potom moraju da ponište ugovor.
01:03
And then they blame the banks
19
48000
2000
A onda krive banke,
01:05
for being the bad guys who gave them the mortgages.
20
50000
3000
kao zlikovce koji su im dali te hipoteke.
01:08
Let's also think about
21
53000
2000
Takođe, razmislimo o tome
01:10
how we manage risks --
22
55000
2000
kako upravljamo rizicima --
01:12
for example, investing in the stock market.
23
57000
2000
na primer, investiranje na berzi.
01:14
Two years ago, three years ago, about four years ago,
24
59000
3000
Pre dve, tri, četri godine,
01:17
markets did well.
25
62000
2000
tržišta su dobro funkcionisala
01:19
We were risk takers, of course.
26
64000
3000
Bili smo hazarderi, naravno.
01:22
Then market stocks seize
27
67000
2000
Potom su akcije prestale da rastu,
01:24
and we're like, "Wow.
28
69000
2000
a mi smo mislili: "Oho.
01:26
These losses, they feel, emotionally,
29
71000
3000
Ovi gubici, emotivno, deluju
01:29
they feel very different
30
74000
3000
veoma različito
01:32
from what we actually thought about it
31
77000
3000
od onoga kako smo mislili o tome
01:35
when markets were going up."
32
80000
2000
kada je berza bila uspešna."
01:37
So we're probably not doing a great job
33
82000
3000
Znači da najverovatnije ne obavljamo odličan posao
01:40
when it comes to risk taking.
34
85000
2000
kada je preuzimanje rizika u pitanju.
01:42
How many of you have iPhones?
35
87000
3000
Koliko od vas ima iPhone?
01:45
Anyone? Wonderful.
36
90000
3000
Bilo ko? Divno.
01:48
I would bet many more of you
37
93000
3000
Kladio bih se da mnogo više vas
01:51
insure your iPhone --
38
96000
3000
osigurava vaš iPhone --
01:54
you're implicitly buying insurance by having an extended warranty.
39
99000
3000
implicitno kupujete osiguranje time što imate produženu garanciju.
01:57
What if you lose your iPhone?
40
102000
2000
Šta ako izgubite svoj iPhone?
01:59
What if you do this?
41
104000
2000
Šta ako vam se to desi?
02:01
How many of you have kids?
42
106000
2000
Koliko vas ima decu?
02:03
Anyone?
43
108000
2000
Bilo ko?
02:05
Keep your hands up
44
110000
2000
Držite ruke gore
02:07
if you have sufficient life insurance.
45
112000
3000
ako imate zadovoljavajuće životno osiguranje.
02:10
I see a lot of hands coming down.
46
115000
2000
Vidim mnogo ruku koje se spuštaju.
02:12
I would predict,
47
117000
2000
Predvideo bih,
02:14
if you're a representative sample,
48
119000
2000
ukoliko ste reprezentativni uzorak,
02:16
that many more of you
49
121000
2000
da mnogo više vas
02:18
insure your iPhones than your lives,
50
123000
3000
osigurava svoj iPhone nego svoj život,
02:21
even when you have kids.
51
126000
2000
čak iako imate decu.
02:23
We're not doing that well when it comes to insurance.
52
128000
3000
Ne ide nam baš najbolje kada je u pitanju osiguranje.
02:26
The average American household
53
131000
4000
Prosečno američko domaćinstvo
02:30
spends 1,000 dollars a year
54
135000
3000
troši 1 000 dolara godišnje
02:33
on lotteries.
55
138000
2000
na lutriju.
02:35
And I know it sounds crazy.
56
140000
3000
Znam da to zvuči suludo.
02:38
How many of you spend a thousand dollars a year on lotteries?
57
143000
3000
Koliko vas godišnje troši hiljadu dolara na lutriju?
02:41
No one.
58
146000
2000
Niko.
02:43
So that tells us that the people not in this room
59
148000
3000
To nam govori da ljudi koji nisu u ovoj prostoriji
02:46
are spending more than a thousand
60
151000
2000
troše više od hiljadu
02:48
to get the average to a thousand.
61
153000
3000
kako bi podigli prosek do hiljadu.
02:51
Low-income people
62
156000
2000
Ljudi sa niskim primanjima
02:53
spend a lot more than a thousand on lotteries.
63
158000
4000
troše mnogo više od hiljadu na lutriju.
02:57
So where does it take us?
64
162000
2000
Kuda nas to vodi?
02:59
We're not doing a great job managing money.
65
164000
3000
Ne obavljamo dobar posao upravljanja novcem.
03:02
Behavioral finance is really a combination
66
167000
3000
Bihejviorističke finansije su kombinacija
03:05
of psychology and economics,
67
170000
2000
psihologije i ekonomije,
03:07
trying to understand
68
172000
2000
koja pokušava da shvati
03:09
the money mistakes people make.
69
174000
2000
novčane greške koje ljudi čine.
03:11
And I can keep standing here
70
176000
2000
Mogu ostati ovde tokom
03:13
for the 12 minutes and 53 seconds that I have left
71
178000
4000
12 minuta i 53 sekunde koliko mi je preostalo
03:17
and make fun of all sorts of ways
72
182000
2000
i ismevati silne načine
03:19
we manage money,
73
184000
2000
kojima upravljamo novcem,
03:21
and at the end you're going to ask, "How can we help people?"
74
186000
3000
na kraju ćete pitati: "Kako možemo pomoći ljudima?"
03:24
And that's what I really want to focus on today.
75
189000
3000
Na to želim da se usredsredim danas.
03:27
How do we take an understanding
76
192000
2000
Kako uzeti razumevanje
03:29
of the money mistakes people make,
77
194000
3000
novčanih grešaka koje ljudi čine,
03:32
and then turning the behavioral challenges
78
197000
3000
i potom promeniti bihejviorističke izazove
03:35
into behavioral solutions?
79
200000
2000
u bihejvioristička rešenja?
03:37
And what I'm going to talk about today
80
202000
2000
Danas ću govoriti o
03:39
is Save More Tomorrow.
81
204000
2000
"Uštedeti više sutra".
03:41
I want to address the issue
82
206000
2000
Želim da pričam
03:43
of savings.
83
208000
2000
o štednji.
03:45
We have on the screen
84
210000
2000
Na ekranu imamo
03:47
a representative sample
85
212000
2000
reprezentativni uzorak
03:49
of 100 Americans.
86
214000
2000
od 100 Amerikanaca.
03:51
And we're going to look at their saving behavior.
87
216000
3000
Razmotrićemo njihove načine štednje.
03:54
First thing to notice is,
88
219000
2000
Prvo što se primećuje,
03:56
half of them
89
221000
2000
je da polovina njih
03:58
do not even have access
90
223000
2000
uopšte nema pristup
04:00
to a 401(k) plan.
91
225000
2000
penzijskom fondu.
04:02
They cannot make savings easy.
92
227000
3000
Ne mogu s lakoćom štedeti.
04:05
They cannot have money go away from their paycheck
93
230000
3000
Nemaju mogućnost da im novac od plate ide
04:08
into a 401(k) plan
94
233000
2000
u penzijski fond
04:10
before they see it,
95
235000
2000
pre nego što ga vide,
04:12
before they can touch it.
96
237000
2000
pre nego što ga uzmu u ruke.
04:14
What about the remaining half of the people?
97
239000
3000
Šta je sa preostalom polovinom?
04:17
Some of them elect not to save.
98
242000
3000
Neki od njih biraju da ne štede.
04:20
They're just too lazy.
99
245000
2000
Jednostavno su suviše lenji.
04:22
They never get around to logging into a complicated website
100
247000
3000
Nikada se ne potrude da se prijave na komplikovan vebsajt
04:25
and doing 17 clicks to join the 401(k) plan.
101
250000
3000
i učine 17 klikova za pristup penzionom fondu.
04:28
And then they have to decide how they're going to invest
102
253000
2000
A potom moraju odlučiti kako će investirati
04:30
in their 52 choices,
103
255000
2000
u svoja 52 izbora,
04:32
and they never heard about what is a money market fund.
104
257000
4000
a nikada nisu čuli za fondove tržišta novca.
04:36
And they get overwhelmed and the just don't join.
105
261000
2000
Osete se nemoćnima pa se ne priključe.
04:38
How many people end up saving to a 401(k) plan?
106
263000
5000
Koliko ljudi na kraju štedi sa penzionim fondom?
04:43
One third of Americans.
107
268000
3000
Jedna trećina Amerikanaca.
04:46
Two thirds are not saving now.
108
271000
2000
Dve trećine ne štedi trenutno.
04:48
Are they saving enough?
109
273000
2000
Da li dovoljno štede?
04:50
Take out those
110
275000
2000
Izbacite one
04:52
who say they save too little.
111
277000
2000
koji kažu da premalo štede.
04:54
One out of 10
112
279000
2000
Jedan u 10
04:56
are saving enough.
113
281000
3000
štedi dovoljno.
04:59
Nine out of 10
114
284000
2000
Devet od 10
05:01
either cannot save through their 401(k) plan,
115
286000
3000
ili ne mogu štedeti putem penzionog fonda,
05:04
decide not to save -- or don't decide --
116
289000
3000
odluče da ne štede -- ili ne odluče --
05:07
or save too little.
117
292000
3000
ili štede premalo.
05:10
We think we have a problem
118
295000
2000
Mislimo da imamo problem
05:12
of people saving too much.
119
297000
2000
prevelike štednje.
05:14
Let's look at that.
120
299000
2000
Hajde da to razmotrimo.
05:16
We have one person --
121
301000
2000
Imamo osobu --
05:18
well, actually we're going to slice him in half
122
303000
3000
zapravo ćemo tu osobu prepoloviti
05:21
because it's less than one percent.
123
306000
3000
jer predstavlja manje od 1 procenta.
05:24
Roughly half a percent of Americans
124
309000
3000
Grubo, pola procenta Amerkinaca
05:27
feel that they save too much.
125
312000
5000
smatra da štedi previše.
05:32
What are we going to do about it?
126
317000
2000
Šta ćemo uraditi po tom pitanju?
05:34
That's what I really want to focus on.
127
319000
2000
Zapravo na to se želim fokusirati.
05:36
We have to understand
128
321000
2000
Moramo razumeti
05:38
why people are not saving,
129
323000
2000
zašto ljudi ne štede,
05:40
and then we can hopefully flip
130
325000
2000
kako bismo možda mogli pretvoriti
05:42
the behavioral challenges
131
327000
2000
bihejviorističke izazove
05:44
into behavioral solutions,
132
329000
2000
u bihejvioristička rešenja
05:46
and then see how powerful it might be.
133
331000
3000
i videti koliko moćna mogu biti.
05:49
So let me divert for a second
134
334000
2000
Dozvolite da skrenem s teme na kratko
05:51
as we're going to identify the problems,
135
336000
2000
dok budemo identifikovali probleme,
05:53
the challenges, the behavioral challenges,
136
338000
3000
izazove, bihejviorističke izazove,
05:56
that prevent people from saving.
137
341000
2000
koji sprečavaju ljude da štede.
05:58
I'm going to divert and talk about bananas and chocolate.
138
343000
4000
Skrenuću tako što ću pričati o bananama i čokoladi.
06:02
Suppose we had another wonderful TED event next week.
139
347000
3000
Pretpostavimo da imamo još jedan TED događaj sledeće nedelje.
06:05
And during the break
140
350000
2000
I tokom pauze
06:07
there would be a snack
141
352000
2000
ima zakuska
06:09
and you could choose bananas or chocolate.
142
354000
2000
i možete da birate banane ili čokoladu.
06:11
How many of you think you would like to have bananas
143
356000
3000
Koliko vas misli da bi volelo da pojede banane
06:14
during this hypothetical TED event next week?
144
359000
2000
tokom ovog hipotetičkog TED događaja?
06:16
Who would go for bananas?
145
361000
2000
Ko bi uzeo banane?
06:18
Wonderful.
146
363000
2000
Divno.
06:20
I predict scientifically
147
365000
2000
Naučno mogu predvideti
06:22
74 percent of you will go for bananas.
148
367000
3000
da će 74% vas odabrati banane.
06:25
Well that's at least what one wonderful study predicted.
149
370000
4000
Uostalom to je predvidela jedna divna studija.
06:30
And then count down the days
150
375000
3000
Potom odbrojavamo dane
06:33
and see what people ended up eating.
151
378000
4000
i vidimo šta su ljudi stvarno pojeli.
06:38
The same people that imagined themselves
152
383000
3000
Isti ljudi koji su sebe videli
06:41
eating the bananas
153
386000
2000
kako jedu banane
06:43
ended up eating chocolates
154
388000
2000
na kraju su jeli čokolade
06:45
a week later.
155
390000
2000
sedmicu kasnije.
06:47
Self-control
156
392000
2000
Samokontrola
06:49
is not a problem in the future.
157
394000
3000
nije problem u budućnosti.
06:52
It's only a problem now
158
397000
2000
Ona je samo problem sada
06:54
when the chocolate is next to us.
159
399000
4000
kada je čokolada pored nas.
06:58
What does it have to do with time and savings,
160
403000
3000
Kakve veze sa vremenom i štednjom
07:01
this issue of immediate gratification?
161
406000
3000
ima ovaj problem trenutnog zadovoljavanja?
07:04
Or as some economists call it, present bias.
162
409000
4000
Ili kako to neki ekonomisti nazivaju, sadašnja pristrasnost.
07:08
We think about saving. We know we should be saving.
163
413000
2000
Mislimo o štednji. Znamo da bi trebalo da štedimo.
07:10
We know we'll do it next year, but today let us go and spend.
164
415000
3000
Znamo da ćemo štedeti sledeće godine, ali danas trošimo.
07:13
Christmas is coming,
165
418000
2000
Božić je na vidiku,
07:15
we might as well buy a lot of gifts for everyone we know.
166
420000
3000
što ne bismo kupili gomilu poklona za svakoga koga poznajemo.
07:18
So this issue of present bias
167
423000
4000
Ovaj problem trenutne pristrasnosti
07:22
causes us to think about saving,
168
427000
2000
nas tera da mislimo o štednji,
07:24
but end up spending.
169
429000
2000
dok na kraju ipak sve potrošimo.
07:26
Let me now talk
170
431000
2000
Sada ću govoriti
07:28
about another behavioral obstacle to saving
171
433000
2000
o još jednoj bihejvioristčkoj prepreci štednji
07:30
having to do with inertia.
172
435000
2000
koja ima veze sa inertnošću.
07:32
But again, a little diversion
173
437000
2000
Ali opet, mala digresija
07:34
to the topic of organ donation.
174
439000
3000
na temu doniranja organa.
07:37
Wonderful study comparing different countries.
175
442000
3000
Divna studija koja poredi različite države.
07:40
We're going to look at two similar countries,
176
445000
3000
Uporedićemo dve slične države,
07:43
Germany and Austria.
177
448000
3000
Nemačku i Austriju.
07:46
And in Germany,
178
451000
2000
U Nemačkoj,
07:48
if you would like to donate your organs --
179
453000
2000
ako želite da donirate svoje organe --
07:50
God forbid something really bad
180
455000
2000
sačuvaj bože da vam se nešto
07:52
happens to you --
181
457000
2000
jako loše desi --
07:54
when you get your driving license or an I.D.,
182
459000
3000
pri dobijanju vozačke dozvole ili lične karte,
07:57
you check the box saying,
183
462000
2000
štriklirate kvadratić koji kaže:
07:59
"I would like to donate my organs."
184
464000
2000
"Želim da doniram svoje organe."
08:01
Not many people like checking boxes.
185
466000
2000
Malo njih voli da štriklira kvadratiće.
08:03
It takes effort. You need to think.
186
468000
2000
Potreban je trud. Morate da mislite.
08:05
Twelve percent do.
187
470000
3000
Dvanaest posto to čini.
08:08
Austria, a neighboring country,
188
473000
3000
Austrija, susedna država,
08:11
slightly similar, slightly different.
189
476000
2000
pomalo slična, pomalo različita.
08:13
What's the difference?
190
478000
2000
U čemu je razlika?
08:15
Well, you still have choice.
191
480000
2000
I dalje imate izbor.
08:17
You will decide
192
482000
2000
Vi odlučujete
08:19
whether you want to donate your organs or not.
193
484000
3000
da li želite da donirate svoje organe.
08:22
But when you get your driving license,
194
487000
2000
Ali pri dobijanju vozačke dozvole,
08:24
you check the box
195
489000
2000
štriklirate kvadratić
08:26
if you do not want to donate your organ.
196
491000
4000
ukoliko ne želite da donirate organe.
08:30
Nobody checks boxes.
197
495000
2000
Niko ne štriklira kvadratiće.
08:32
That's kind of too much effort.
198
497000
2000
To je nekako previše truda.
08:34
One percent check the box. The rest do nothing.
199
499000
3000
Jedan posto štriklira. Ostali ne urade ništa.
08:37
Doing nothing is very common.
200
502000
2000
Nečinjenje je veoma uobičajeno.
08:39
Not many people check boxes.
201
504000
3000
Malo ljudi štriklira kvadrate.
08:42
What are the implications
202
507000
2000
Kakve su implikacije
08:44
to saving lives
203
509000
2000
po spasavanje života
08:46
and having organs available?
204
511000
3000
i imanje organa na raspolaganju?
08:49
In Germany, 12 percent check the box.
205
514000
2000
U Nemačkoj, 12 posto štriklira kvadrate.
08:51
Twelve percent are organ donors.
206
516000
3000
Dvanaest posto su donatori organa.
08:54
Huge shortage of organs,
207
519000
2000
Veliki nedostatak organa,
08:56
God forbid, if you need one.
208
521000
2000
sačuvaj bože da vam jedan zatreba.
08:58
In Austria, again, nobody checks the box.
209
523000
3000
U Austriji, niko ne štriklira kvadrat.
09:01
Therefore, 99 percent of people
210
526000
3000
Stoga, 99 posto ljudi
09:04
are organ donors.
211
529000
2000
su donatori organa.
09:06
Inertia, lack of action.
212
531000
2000
Inercija, nedostatak radnje.
09:08
What is the default setting
213
533000
2000
Šta je standardna podešenost
09:10
if people do nothing,
214
535000
2000
ukoliko ljudi ne čine ništa,
09:12
if they keep procrastinating, if they don't check the boxes?
215
537000
3000
ukoliko odugovlače, ukoliko ne štrikliraju kvadratiće?
09:15
Very powerful.
216
540000
2000
Veoma moćno.
09:17
We're going to talk
217
542000
2000
Govorićemo o tome
09:19
about what happens if people are overwhelmed and scared
218
544000
4000
šta dešava kada su ljudi preplavljeni i uplašeni
09:23
to make their 401(k) choices.
219
548000
3000
pravljenjem svojih penzionih izbora.
09:26
Are we going to make them automatically join the plan,
220
551000
3000
Da li ih automatski naterati da se priključe fondovima
09:29
or are they going to be left out?
221
554000
2000
ili ih izostaviti?
09:31
In too many 401(k) plans,
222
556000
3000
U većini penzionih fondova,
09:34
if people do nothing,
223
559000
2000
ukoliko ljudi ništa ne rade,
09:36
it means they're not saving for retirement,
224
561000
3000
znači da ne štede za penziju,
09:39
if they don't check the box.
225
564000
2000
ukoliko ne štrikliraju kvadrat.
09:41
And checking the box takes effort.
226
566000
3000
A štrikliranje zahteva trud.
09:44
So we've chatted about a couple of behavioral challenges.
227
569000
3000
Pričali smo o par bihejviorističkih izazova.
09:47
One more before we flip the challenges into solutions,
228
572000
3000
Još jedan izazov pre nego što izazove pretvorimo u rešenja,
09:50
having to do with monkeys and apples.
229
575000
2000
ima veze sa majmunima i jabukama.
09:52
No, no, no, this is a real study
230
577000
2000
Ne, ne, ne, ovo je stvarno istraživanje
09:54
and it's got a lot to do with behavioral economics.
231
579000
4000
i ima puno veze sa bihejviorističkom ekonomijom.
09:58
One group of monkeys gets an apple, they're pretty happy.
232
583000
3000
Jedna grupa majmuna dobije jabuku, prilično su srećni.
10:01
The other group gets two apples, one is taken away.
233
586000
2000
Druga grupa dobije dve jabuke, jedna im se oduzima.
10:03
They still have an apple left.
234
588000
2000
I dalje imaju jednu jabuku.
10:05
They're really mad.
235
590000
3000
Jako su besni.
10:08
Why have you taken our apple?
236
593000
3000
Zašto ste nam uzeli jabuku?
10:11
This is the notion of loss aversion.
237
596000
3000
Ovo je pojam averzije prema gubitku.
10:14
We hate losing stuff,
238
599000
2000
Mrzimo da gubimo stvari,
10:16
even if it doesn't mean a lot of risk.
239
601000
3000
čak i kad to ne podrazumeva mnogo rizika.
10:19
You would hate to go to the ATM,
240
604000
3000
Mrzeli biste da odete do bankomata,
10:22
take out 100 dollars
241
607000
2000
izvadite 100 dolara
10:24
and notice that you lost one of those $20 bills.
242
609000
2000
i shvatite da ste izgubili jednu novčanicu od 20 dolara.
10:26
It's very painful,
243
611000
2000
To je veoma bolno,
10:28
even though it doesn't mean anything.
244
613000
2000
iako ništa ne znači.
10:30
Those 20 dollars might have been a quick lunch.
245
615000
4000
Tih 20 dolara su mogli biti ručak s nogu.
10:34
So this notion of loss aversion
246
619000
4000
Pojam averzije prema gubitku
10:38
kicks in when it comes to savings too,
247
623000
3000
proradi i kada je reč o štednji,
10:41
because people, mentally
248
626000
2000
jer ljudi, mentalno
10:43
and emotionally and intuitively
249
628000
3000
emotivno i intuitivno
10:46
frame savings as a loss
250
631000
2000
smatraju štednju gubitkom
10:48
because I have to cut my spending.
251
633000
3000
jer moraju da smanje potrošnju.
10:51
So we talked about
252
636000
2000
Pričali smo o
10:53
all sorts of behavioral challenges
253
638000
2000
raznim vrstama bihejviorističkih izazova
10:55
having to do with savings eventually.
254
640000
4000
koji na kraju imaju veze sa štednjom.
10:59
Whether you think about immediate gratification,
255
644000
3000
Mislili vi o trenutnom zadovoljenju
11:02
and the chocolates versus bananas,
256
647000
3000
ili čokoladi protiv banana,
11:05
it's just painful to save now.
257
650000
3000
jednostavno je suviše bolno štedeti sada.
11:08
It's a lot more fun
258
653000
2000
Mnogo je zabavnije
11:10
to spend now.
259
655000
2000
trošiti sada.
11:12
We talked about inertia and organ donations
260
657000
3000
Pričali smo o inertnosti i donaciji organa
11:15
and checking the box.
261
660000
2000
i štrikliranju kvadrata.
11:17
If people have to check a lot of boxes
262
662000
2000
Ako ljudi moraju štriklirati mnogo kvadrata
11:19
to join a 401(k) plan,
263
664000
2000
pri pridruživanju penzionom fondu,
11:21
they're going to keep procrastinating
264
666000
2000
nastaviće da odugovlače
11:23
and not join.
265
668000
2000
i neće se pridružiti.
11:25
And last, we talked about loss aversion,
266
670000
2000
Na kraju, pričali smo o averziji prema gubitku,
11:27
and the monkeys and the apples.
267
672000
2000
i majmunima i jabukama.
11:29
If people frame mentally
268
674000
3000
Ako ljudi mentalno smatraju
11:32
saving for retirement as a loss,
269
677000
3000
štednju za penziju gubitkom,
11:35
they're not going to be saving for retirement.
270
680000
3000
neće štedeti za penziju.
11:38
So we've got these challenges,
271
683000
2000
Stoga imamo ove izazove,
11:40
and what Richard Thaler and I
272
685000
2000
i čime smo Ričard Teler i ja
11:42
were always fascinated by --
273
687000
2000
uvek bili fascinirani --
11:44
take behavioral finance,
274
689000
2000
uzmite bihejviorističke finansije,
11:46
make it behavioral finance on steroids
275
691000
2000
načinite ih bihejviorističkim finansijama na steroidima
11:48
or behavioral finance 2.0
276
693000
2000
ili bihejviorsitičkim finansijama 2.0
11:50
or behavioral finance in action --
277
695000
2000
ili bihejviorističkim finansijama u akciji --
11:52
flip the challenges into solutions.
278
697000
4000
i okrenite izazove u rešenja.
11:56
And we came up with an embarrassingly simple solution
279
701000
3000
Našli smo sramno jednostavno rešenje
11:59
called Save More, not today, Tomorrow.
280
704000
4000
nazvano "Štedite više, ne danas, sutra".
12:03
How is it going to solve the challenges
281
708000
2000
Kako će to razrešiti izazove
12:05
we chatted about?
282
710000
2000
o kojima smo govorili?
12:07
If you think about the problem
283
712000
2000
Ako razmislite o problemu
12:09
of bananas versus chocolates,
284
714000
2000
banana protiv čokolade,
12:11
we think we're going to eat bananas next week.
285
716000
3000
mislimo da ćemo jesti banane sledeće nedelje.
12:14
We think we're going to save more next year.
286
719000
3000
Mislimo da ćemo više štedeti sledeće godine.
12:17
Save More Tomorrow
287
722000
3000
"Uštedite više sutra"
12:20
invites employees
288
725000
2000
poziva zaposlene
12:22
to save more maybe next year --
289
727000
2000
da štede više možda sledeće godine --
12:24
sometime in the future
290
729000
2000
u nekom trenutku u budućnosti
12:26
when we can imagine ourselves
291
731000
2000
kada mogu sebe zamisliti
12:28
eating bananas,
292
733000
2000
kako jedu banane,
12:30
volunteering more in the community,
293
735000
2000
pomažu više u zajednici,
12:32
exercising more and doing all the right things on the planet.
294
737000
4000
vežbaju više i rade sve one prave stvari na planeti.
12:36
Now we also talked about checking the box
295
741000
3000
Takođe, pričali smo o štrikliranju kvadrata
12:39
and the difficulty of taking action.
296
744000
3000
i težini preduzimanja akcije.
12:42
Save More Tomorrow
297
747000
2000
"Uštedite više sutra"
12:44
makes it easy.
298
749000
2000
to čini lakim.
12:46
It's an autopilot.
299
751000
2000
Kao autopilot.
12:48
Once you tell me you would like to save more in the future,
300
753000
4000
Kada mi jednom kažete da biste želeli štedeti više u budućnosti,
12:52
let's say every January
301
757000
2000
recimo svakog januara,
12:54
you're going to be saving more automatically
302
759000
3000
automatski ćete više štedeti i
12:57
and it's going to go away from your paycheck to the 401(k) plan
303
762000
3000
novac će biti skinut sa vaše plate za vaš penzioni fond
13:00
before you see it, before you touch it,
304
765000
2000
pre nego što ga vidite, pre nego što ga uzmete u ruke,
13:02
before you get the issue
305
767000
2000
pre nego što budete imali problem
13:04
of immediate gratification.
306
769000
3000
trenutnog zadovoljenja.
13:07
But what are we going to do about the monkeys
307
772000
3000
Šta da radimo u vezi s majmunima
13:10
and loss aversion?
308
775000
2000
i averzijom prema gubitku?
13:12
Next January comes
309
777000
2000
Dolaskom sledećeg januara,
13:14
and people might feel that if they save more,
310
779000
2000
ljudi mogu smatrati da ako više uštede,
13:16
they have to spend less, and that's painful.
311
781000
3000
moraju manje da potroše, a to je bolno.
13:20
Well, maybe it shouldn't be just January.
312
785000
2000
Možda onda ne bi trebao biti samo januar.
13:22
Maybe we should make people save more
313
787000
3000
Možda bi trebalo da teramo ljude da štede više
13:25
when they make more money.
314
790000
3000
kada zarade više novca.
13:28
That way, when they make more money, when they get a pay raise,
315
793000
3000
Tako, kada zarade više novca, kada dobiju povišicu,
13:31
they don't have to cut their spending.
316
796000
4000
ne moraju smanjiti svoju potrošnju.
13:35
They take a little bit
317
800000
2000
Ponesu malo
13:37
of the increase in the paycheck home
318
802000
2000
povišice kući
13:39
and spend more --
319
804000
2000
i potroše više --
13:41
take a little bit of the increase
320
806000
2000
uzmu malo povišice
13:43
and put it in a 401(k) plan.
321
808000
2000
i stave u svoj penzioni fond.
13:45
So that is the program,
322
810000
2000
To je program,
13:47
embarrassingly simple,
323
812000
2000
sramotno jednostavan,
13:49
but as we're going to see,
324
814000
2000
ali kao što ćemo videti,
13:51
extremely powerful.
325
816000
2000
izuzetno moćan.
13:53
We first implemented it,
326
818000
2000
Prvi put smo ga sproveli u delo,
13:55
Richard Thaler and I,
327
820000
2000
Ričard Teler i ja,
13:57
back in 1998.
328
822000
3000
još 1998.
14:00
Mid-sized company in the Midwest,
329
825000
3000
Kompanija srednje veličine na Srednjem zapadu,
14:03
blue collar employees
330
828000
2000
zaposleni "plavih kragni"
14:05
struggling to pay their bills
331
830000
2000
koji se muče da plaćaju račune,
14:07
repeatedly told us
332
832000
2000
su nam više puta rekli
14:09
they cannot save more right away.
333
834000
3000
kako ne mogu štedeti više u datom trenutku.
14:12
Saving more today is not an option.
334
837000
3000
Štedeti više danas nije bila mogućnost.
14:15
We invited them to save
335
840000
2000
Pozvali smo ih da štede
14:17
three percentage points more
336
842000
3000
tri procenta više
14:20
every time they get a pay raise.
337
845000
3000
svaki put kada dobiju povišicu.
14:23
And here are the results.
338
848000
3000
A ovo su rezultati.
14:26
We're seeing here a three and a half-year period,
339
851000
2000
Gledamo period od tri ipo godine,
14:28
four pay raises,
340
853000
2000
četiri povišice,
14:30
people who were struggling to save,
341
855000
2000
ljude koji su se borili da bi uštedeli,
14:32
were saving three percent of their paycheck,
342
857000
2000
koji su štedeli tri posto svoje plate,
14:34
three and a half years later
343
859000
2000
tri i po godine kasnije
14:36
saving almost four times as much,
344
861000
3000
štede skoro četiri puta toliko,
14:39
almost 14 percent.
345
864000
3000
skoro 14 posto.
14:42
And there's shoes and bicycles
346
867000
2000
Ima cipela i bicikala
14:44
and things on this chart
347
869000
2000
i drugih stvari na ovom grafiku
14:46
because I don't want to just throw numbers
348
871000
2000
jer ne želim da vas samo gađam brojkama
14:48
in a vacuum.
349
873000
2000
u vakuumu.
14:50
I want, really, to think about the fact
350
875000
3000
Želim da razmislimo o činjenici
14:53
that saving four times more
351
878000
2000
da je štedeti čitiri puta više
14:55
is a huge difference
352
880000
2000
ogromna razlika
14:57
in terms of the lifestyle
353
882000
2000
po pitanju stila života
14:59
that people will be able to afford.
354
884000
2000
koji će ti ljudi moći sebi da priušte.
15:01
It's real.
355
886000
2000
To je stvarno.
15:03
It's not just numbers on a piece of paper.
356
888000
3000
To nisu samo brojke na parčetu papira.
15:06
Whereas with saving three percent,
357
891000
2000
Dok bi pri štednji od tri procenta,
15:08
people might have to add nice sneakers
358
893000
2000
možda mogli da priušte lepe patike
15:10
so they can walk,
359
895000
2000
za šetnju,
15:12
because they won't be able to afford anything else,
360
897000
4000
jer ne bi mogli sebi priuštiti ništa drugo,
15:16
when they save 14 percent
361
901000
2000
kada štede 14 posto
15:18
they might be able to maybe have nice dress shoes
362
903000
3000
možda mogu da kupe lepe cipele uz haljinu
15:21
to walk to the car to drive.
363
906000
3000
da odšetaju do automobila koji voze.
15:24
This is a real difference.
364
909000
2000
Ovo je stvarna razlika.
15:26
By now, about 60 percent of the large companies
365
911000
5000
Do sada, oko 60 posto velikih kompanija
15:31
actually have programs like this in place.
366
916000
3000
je usvojilo ovakve programe.
15:34
It's been part of the Pension Protection Act.
367
919000
3000
Postalo je deo Zakona o zaštiti penzija.
15:37
And needless to say that Thaler and I
368
922000
2000
Ne mora se ni reći da smo Teler i ja
15:39
have been blessed to be part of this program
369
924000
3000
bili blagosloveni što smo deo ovog programa
15:42
and make a difference.
370
927000
2000
i pravimo razliku pomažući drugima.
15:44
Let me wrap
371
929000
2000
Završiću
15:46
with two key messages.
372
931000
3000
sa dve ključne poruke.
15:49
One is behavioral finance
373
934000
3000
Jedna je da su bihejviorističke finansije
15:52
is extremely powerful.
374
937000
3000
izuzetno snažne.
15:55
This is just one example.
375
940000
3000
Ovo je samo jedan primer.
15:58
Message two
376
943000
2000
Druga poruka je
16:00
is there's still a lot to do.
377
945000
2000
da ima još mnogo da se uradi.
16:02
This is really the tip of the iceberg.
378
947000
3000
Ovo je samo vrh ledenog brega.
16:05
If you think about people and mortgages
379
950000
3000
Mislite o ljudima i hipotekama
16:08
and buying houses and then not being able to pay for it,
380
953000
3000
i kupovini kuće koju potom ne možete otplatiti,
16:11
we need to think about that.
381
956000
2000
o tome moramo razmišljati.
16:13
If you're thinking about people taking too much risk
382
958000
3000
Mislite o ljudima koji preuzimaju previše rizika
16:16
and not understanding how much risk they're taking
383
961000
3000
i ne shvatajući koliko rizika preuzimaju
16:19
or taking too little risk,
384
964000
2000
ili rizikuju premalo,
16:21
we need to think about that.
385
966000
2000
i o tome moramo razmišljati.
16:23
If you think about people spending a thousand dollars a year
386
968000
3000
Mislite o ljudima koji troše hiljade dolara godišnje
16:26
on lottery tickets,
387
971000
2000
na lutrijske lozove,
16:28
we need to think about that.
388
973000
2000
i o tome moramo razmišljati.
16:30
The average actually,
389
975000
2000
Najviši prosek,
16:32
the record is in Singapore.
390
977000
2000
je zapravo u Singapuru.
16:34
The average household
391
979000
2000
Presečno domaćinstvo
16:36
spends $4,000 a year on lottery tickets.
392
981000
3000
troši 4 000 dolara godišnje na lutrijske lozove.
16:39
We've got a lot to do,
393
984000
2000
Imamo mnogo posla,
16:41
a lot to solve,
394
986000
2000
mnogo problema,
16:43
also in the retirement area
395
988000
3000
takođe u oblasti penzija
16:46
when it comes to what people do with their money
396
991000
2000
kada je u pitanju šta ljudi rade sa svojim novcem
16:48
after retirement.
397
993000
2000
nakon penzionisanja.
16:50
One last question:
398
995000
2000
Poslednje ptanje:
16:52
How many of you feel comfortable
399
997000
3000
koliko vas je zadovoljno
16:55
that as you're planning for retirement
400
1000000
2000
i misli da prilikom planiranja
16:57
you have a really solid plan
401
1002000
3000
ima solidan plan za
17:00
when you're going to retire,
402
1005000
2000
period nakon penzionisanja,
17:02
when you're going to claim Social Security benefits,
403
1007000
3000
kada budete zahtevali beneficije socijalnog osiguranja,
17:05
what lifestyle to expect,
404
1010000
2000
kakav stil života možete očekivati,
17:07
how much to spend every month
405
1012000
2000
koliko možete trošiti svakog meseca
17:09
so you're not going to run out of money?
406
1014000
2000
kako ne biste ostali bez novca?
17:11
How many of you feel you have a solid plan for the future
407
1016000
3000
Koliko vas smatra da ima dobar plan za budućnost
17:14
when it comes to post-retirement decisions.
408
1019000
4000
kada su u pitanju odluke za period nakon penzionisanja?
17:19
One, two, three, four.
409
1024000
3000
Jedan, dva, tri, četiri.
17:22
Less than three percent
410
1027000
2000
Manje od tri posto
17:24
of a very sophisticated audience.
411
1029000
2000
veoma sofisticirane publike.
17:26
Behavioral finance has a long way.
412
1031000
3000
Bihejviorističke finansije imaju da pređu dug put.
17:29
There's a lot of opportunities
413
1034000
2000
Ima mnogo prilika
17:31
to make it powerful again and again and again.
414
1036000
4000
da ih učinimo snažnim, iznova i iznova i iznova.
17:35
Thank you.
415
1040000
2000
Hvala vam.
17:37
(Applause)
416
1042000
2000
(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Shlomo Benartzi - EconomistShlomo Benartzi uses behavioral economics to study how and why we plan well for the future (or fail to), and uses that to develop new programs to encourage saving for retirement.
Why you should listen
Shlomo Benartzi studies behavioral finance with a special interest in personal finance. He is co-founder of the Behavioral Finance Forum (www.behavioralfinanceforum.com), a collective of 40 prominent academics and 40 major financial institutions from around the globe. The Forum helps consumers make better financial decisions by fostering collaborative research efforts between academics and industry leaders.
Benartzi’s most significant research contribution is the development of Save More Tomorrow™ (SMarT), a behavioral prescription designed to help employees increase their savings rates gradually over time.
Shlomo Benartzi | Speaker | TED.com