TED@BCG San Francisco
Dan Berkenstock: The world is one big dataset. Now, how to photograph it ...
Den Berkenstok (Dan Berkenstock): Svet je jedna velika grupa podataka. No, kako je uslikati...
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Svi smo upoznati sa satelitskim snimcima, no, ono što možda ne znamo je da je većina tih snimaka zastarela. Tako je jer su sateliti većinom veliki i skupi, pa ih ni nema puno u svemiru. Kao što opisuje u ovom izuzetnom govoru, Den Berkenstok i njegov tim su pronašli drugačije rešenje i dizajnirali jeftin i lak satelit sa radikalno drugačijim pristupom snimanju onoga što se dešava na Zemlji.
Dan Berkenstock - Satellite designer
Dan Berkenstock and his team at Skybox Imaging are rethinking how to take photographs from space. Full bio
Dan Berkenstock and his team at Skybox Imaging are rethinking how to take photographs from space. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Five years ago, I was a Ph.D. student
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Pre pet godina bio sam doktorant
00:15
living two lives.
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koji je živeo dva života.
00:16
In one, I used NASA supercomputers
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U jednom od njih sam koristio
NASA superkompjutere
NASA superkompjutere
00:19
to design next-generation spacecraft,
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da bih dizajnirao svemirski brod
sledeće generacije,
sledeće generacije,
00:21
and in the other I was a data scientist
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a u drugom sam se bavio analizom podataka
00:24
looking for potential smugglers
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i tragao za potencijalnim krijumčarima
00:26
of sensitive nuclear technologies.
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osetljivih nuklearnih tehnologija.
00:30
As a data scientist, I did a lot of analyses,
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Baveći se podacima,
vršio sam mnoge analize,
vršio sam mnoge analize,
00:32
mostly of facilities,
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većinom postrojenja,
00:34
industrial facilities around the world.
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industrijskih postrojenja širom sveta.
00:36
And I was always looking for a better canvas
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I uvek sam tražio širu sliku
00:39
to tie these all together.
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da sve to povežem.
00:41
And one day, I was thinking about how
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Jednoga dana, razmišljao sam
00:43
all data has a location,
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kako svi podaci imaju lokaciju
00:45
and I realized that the answer
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i shvatio da je odgovor
00:47
had been staring me in the face.
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bio tačno preda mnom.
00:48
Although I was a satellite engineer,
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Iako sam bio inženjer satelita,
00:51
I hadn't thought about using satellite imagery
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nisam razmišljao
o korišćenju satelitskih snimaka
o korišćenju satelitskih snimaka
00:54
in my work.
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u svom radu.
00:56
Now, like most of us, I'd been online,
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Pošto sam, kao i većina,
bio povezan na internet
bio povezan na internet
00:58
I'd see my house, so I thought,
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mogao sam da vidim svoju kuću
i pomislio sam,
i pomislio sam,
01:00
I'll hop in there and I'll start looking up
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popeću se tamo i početi da posmatram
01:02
some of these facilities.
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neke od tih postrojenja.
01:03
And what I found really surprised me.
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I ono što sam otkrio me je iznenadilo.
01:05
The pictures that I was finding
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Slike koje sam pronašao
01:07
were years out of date,
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su bile zastarele već godinama,
01:09
and because of that,
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i zbog toga,
01:10
it had relatively little relevance
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imale su malo značaja
01:12
to the work that I was doing today.
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za ono što sam danas radio.
01:14
But I was intrigued.
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No, bio sam zaintrigiran.
01:16
I mean, satellite imagery is pretty amazing stuff.
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Hoću da kažem,
satelitski snimci su neverovatni.
satelitski snimci su neverovatni.
01:19
There are millions and millions of sensors
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Postoje milioni i milioni senzora
01:21
surrounding us today,
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koji nas okružuju danas,
01:22
but there's still so much we
don't know on a daily basis.
don't know on a daily basis.
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ali i toliko toga što ne znamo,
svakodnevno.
svakodnevno.
01:25
How much oil is stored in all of China?
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Koliko nafte se skladišti u Kini u celini?
01:29
How much corn is being produced?
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Koliko se kukuruza proizvodi?
01:32
How many ships are in all of our world's ports?
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Koliko je brodova u svim lukama sveta?
01:36
Now, in theory, all of these questions
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U teoriji, na sva ova pitanja
01:39
could be answered by imagery,
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bi se moglo odgovoriti snimcima,
01:41
but not if it's old.
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ali ne ako su stari.
01:43
And if this data was so valuable,
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Takođe, ako su ovi podaci toliko značajni,
01:45
then how come I couldn't get my hands
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kako to da nisam uspeo da nabavim
01:47
on more recent pictures?
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novije slike?
01:50
So the story begins over 50 years ago
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Priča počinje pre više od 50 godina
01:53
with the launch of the first generation
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sa lansiranjem prve generacije
01:55
of U.S. government photo reconnaissance satellites.
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fotografskih izviđačkih satelita
vlade SAD-a.
vlade SAD-a.
01:58
And today, there's a handful
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A danas postoji grupa
02:00
of the great, great grandchildren
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prapraunučića
02:02
of these early Cold War machines
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tih mašina sa početka hladnog rata
02:04
which are now operated by private companies
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kojima danas upravljaju privatne kompanije
02:06
and from which the vast majority of satellite imagery
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i sa kojih dolazi
većina satelitskih snimaka
većina satelitskih snimaka
02:09
that you and I see on a daily basis comes.
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koje vi i ja svakodnevno viđamo.
02:11
During this period, launching things into space,
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U toku tog perioda, lansiranje u svemir
02:14
just the rocket to get the satellite up there,
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samo rakete
koja bi postavila satelit gore,
koja bi postavila satelit gore,
02:17
has cost hundreds of millions of dollars each,
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koštalo je stotine miliona dolara
po komadu,
po komadu,
02:22
and that's created tremendous pressure
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i to je stvorilo ogroman pritisak
02:23
to launch things infrequently
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da se lansiranja vrše neredovno
02:26
and to make sure that when you do,
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i da se, kada do lansiranja dođe,
02:27
you cram as much functionality in there as possible.
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nagura što je više funkcija moguće.
02:31
All of this has only made satellites
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To je sve učinilo satelite
02:32
bigger and bigger and bigger
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sve većim i većim i većim
02:35
and more expensive,
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i skupljim,
02:36
now nearly a billion, with a b, dollars per copy.
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sada već oko milijardu dolara po komadu.
02:41
Because they are so expensive,
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Pošto su toliko skupi,
02:43
there aren't very many of them.
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nema ih mnogo.
02:44
Because there aren't very many of them,
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Pošto ih nema mnogo,
02:46
the pictures that we see on a daily basis
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slike koje svakodnevno vidimo
02:48
tend to be old.
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često su stare.
02:50
I think a lot of people actually
understand this anecdotally,
understand this anecdotally,
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Mislim da dosta ljudi ovo shvata komično,
02:53
but in order to visualize just how sparsely
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ali da bismo vizuelno predstavili
kako je delimično
kako je delimično
02:56
our planet is collected,
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naša planeta snimljena,
02:57
some friends and I put together a dataset
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prijatelji i ja smo formirali
skup podataka
skup podataka
03:00
of the 30 million pictures that have been gathered
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od 30 miliona slika koje su prikupljene
03:02
by these satellites between 2000 and 2010.
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sa ovih satelita
između 2000. i 2010. godine.
između 2000. i 2010. godine.
03:06
As you can see in blue, huge areas of our world
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Kao što vidite u plavom,
ogromna prostranstva
ogromna prostranstva
03:08
are barely seen, less than once a year,
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se jedva vide, ređe nego jednom godišnje,
03:11
and even the areas that are seen most frequently,
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a čak i predeli koji se vide češće,
03:13
those in red, are seen at best once a quarter.
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oni u crvenom, se vide
u najboljem slučaju jednom u tri meseca.
u najboljem slučaju jednom u tri meseca.
03:17
Now as aerospace engineering grad students,
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Nama kao studentima astronautike
03:20
this chart cried out to us as a challenge.
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ovaj grafik je predstavljao izazov.
03:23
Why do these things have to be so expensive?
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Zašto sve to mora biti toliko skupo?
03:27
Does a single satellite really have to cost
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Da li jedan satelit zaista mora koštati
03:30
the equivalent of three 747 jumbo jets?
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koliko i tri 747 džambodžet aviona?
03:34
Wasn't there a way to build a smaller,
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Zar ne postoji način
da se konstruiše manji,
da se konstruiše manji,
03:37
simpler, new satellite design that could enable
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jednostavniji, novi dizajn satelita
koji bi omogućio
koji bi omogućio
03:40
more timely imaging?
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podesno slikanje?
03:42
I realize that it does sound a little bit crazy
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Jasno mi je da zvuči pomalo blesavo
03:45
that we were going to go out and just
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da smo hteli da prosto
03:47
begin designing satellites,
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počnemo da dizajniramo satelite,
03:49
but fortunately we had help.
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ali srećom imali smo pomoć.
03:51
In the late 1990s, a couple of professors
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Krajem devedesetih, par profesora
03:53
proposed a concept for radically reducing the price
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je predložilo koncept
za radikalno smanjivanje cena
za radikalno smanjivanje cena
03:57
of putting things in space.
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postavljanja stvari u svemir.
03:59
This was hitchhiking small satellites
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To je značilo prenositi male satelite
04:01
alongside much larger satellites.
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uz one mnogo veće.
04:04
This dropped the cost of putting objects up there
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To je smanjilo troškove
postavljanja stvari u svemir
postavljanja stvari u svemir
04:07
by over a factor of 100,
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za preko sto puta,
04:09
and suddenly we could afford to experiment,
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i odjednom smo mogli priuštiti sebi
da eksperimentišemo,
da eksperimentišemo,
04:12
to take a little bit of risk,
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da preuzmemo mali rizik
04:13
and to realize a lot of innovation.
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a da sprovedemo mnoge inovacije.
04:16
And a new generation of engineers and scientists,
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I nova generacija inženjera i naučnika,
04:19
mostly out of universities,
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većinom sa univerziteta,
04:20
began launching these very small,
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su počeli da lansiraju
ove veoma male satelite
ove veoma male satelite
04:23
breadbox-sized satellites called CubeSats.
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veličine kutije za hleb,
nazvane Kjubsats.
nazvane Kjubsats.
04:25
And these were built with electronics obtained
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Bili su izgrađeni od elektronike
nabavljene
nabavljene
04:28
from RadioShack instead of Lockheed Martin.
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u prodavnicama Radio Šek
umesto Lokid Martin.
umesto Lokid Martin.
04:32
Now it was using the lessons
learned from these early missions
learned from these early missions
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Koristeći znanja iz ranijih misija
04:34
that my friends and I began a series of sketches
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moji prijatelji i ja započeli smo
seriju skica
seriju skica
04:37
of our own satellite design.
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naših sopstvenih dizajna satelita.
04:39
And I can't remember a specific day
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Ne sećam se jednog određenog dana
04:42
where we made a conscious decision
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kada smo doneli svesnu odluku
04:43
that we were actually going to
go out and build these things,
go out and build these things,
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da ćemo zaista početi
da proizvodimo te stvari,
da proizvodimo te stvari,
04:46
but once we got that idea in our minds
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ali kada se ta ideja jednom rodila,
04:48
of the world as a dataset,
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ideja sveta kao skupa podataka,
04:51
of being able to capture millions of data points
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koji može da obuhvati
milione podataka dnevno,
milione podataka dnevno,
04:53
on a daily basis describing the global economy,
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koji opisuju svetsku ekonomiju,
04:56
of being able to unearth billions of connections
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koji mogu da otkriju
milijarde veza među sobom,
milijarde veza među sobom,
04:59
between them that had never before been found,
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koje nikada ranije nisu pronađene,
05:02
it just seemed boring
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delovalo je prosto dosadno
05:03
to go work on anything else.
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raditi bilo šta drugo.
05:06
And so we moved into a cramped,
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I tako smo se preselili u skučenu
05:09
windowless office in Palo Alto,
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kancelariju bez prozora u Palo Altu,
05:12
and began working to take our design
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i počeli rad na tome
da svoje dizajne izvučemo
da svoje dizajne izvučemo
05:14
from the drawing board into the lab.
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iz skica u laboratoriju.
05:17
The first major question we had to tackle
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Prvo bitno pitanje na koje
smo morali da nađemo odgovor
smo morali da nađemo odgovor
05:20
was just how big to build this thing.
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bilo je koliko bi veliko
sve to trebalo biti.
sve to trebalo biti.
05:22
In space, size drives cost,
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U svemiru, veličina proizvodi trošak,
05:25
and we had worked with these very small,
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a mi smo radili sa veoma malim satelitima,
05:27
breadbox-sized satellites in school,
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veličine kutije za hleb, u školi,
05:30
but as we began to better
understand the laws of physics,
understand the laws of physics,
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no, kako smo bolje razumevali
zakone fizike,
zakone fizike,
05:32
we found that the quality of pictures
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shvatili smo da je kvalitet slike
05:34
those satellites could take was very limited,
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koji su ti sateliti mogli da uhvate
bio veoma ograničen,
bio veoma ograničen,
05:37
because the laws of physics dictate
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jer zakoni fizike određuju
05:39
that the best picture you
can take through a telescope
can take through a telescope
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da je najbolja slika
koju možemo napraviti kroz teleskop
koju možemo napraviti kroz teleskop
05:42
is a function of the diameter of that telescope,
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jednaka kvadratu prečnika tog teleskopa,
05:44
and these satellites had a very small,
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a ti sateliti su imali veoma mali,
05:46
very constrained volume.
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veoma ograničen obim.
05:48
And we found that the best picture we would
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I shvatili smo da bi najbolja slika
koju bismo mogli snimiti
koju bismo mogli snimiti
05:50
have been able to get looked something like this.
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izgledala ovako nekako.
05:52
Although this was the low-cost option,
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Iako je ovo bila jeftina opcija,
05:54
quite frankly it was just too blurry
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iskreno, bila je previše mutna
05:56
to see the things that make
satellite imagery valuable.
satellite imagery valuable.
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da bi se videla vrednost
satelitskog snimka.
satelitskog snimka.
05:59
So about three or four weeks later,
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Tako da smo se
tri ili četiri nedelje kasnije
tri ili četiri nedelje kasnije
06:02
we met a group of engineers randomly
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neplanski sastali sa grupom inženjera
06:04
who had worked on the first
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koji su radili na prvom
06:06
private imaging satellite ever developed,
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privatnom satelitu za snimanje
koji je ikada napravljen,
koji je ikada napravljen,
06:09
and they told us that back in the 1970s,
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i oni su nam rekli da je
sedamdesetih godina,
sedamdesetih godina,
06:11
the U.S. government had found a powerful
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vlada SAD-a pronašla snažan
06:13
optimal tradeoff --
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povoljan kompromis
06:14
that in taking pictures at right
about one meter resolution,
about one meter resolution,
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da praveći slike rezolucije
od jednog metra,
od jednog metra,
06:18
being able to see objects one meter in size,
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koje omogućavaju da se vide objekti
veličine od jednog metra,
veličine od jednog metra,
06:20
they had found that they could not
just get very high-quality images,
just get very high-quality images,
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pronašli su da ne dobijaju
samo slike visokog kvaliteta,
samo slike visokog kvaliteta,
06:23
but get a lot of them at an affordable price.
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već dobijaju mnogo takvih slika
po povoljnoj ceni.
po povoljnoj ceni.
06:26
From our own computer simulations,
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Pomoću naših kompjuterskih simulacija,
06:28
we quickly found that one meter really was
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ubrzo smo pronašli
da je jedan metar ustvari bio
da je jedan metar ustvari bio
06:30
the minimum viable product
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najmanji održiv proizvod
06:32
to be able to see the drivers of our global economy,
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da bismo videli pokretače
svetske privrede,
svetske privrede,
06:35
for the first time, being able to count
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da bismo, po prvi put, mogli da izbrojimo
06:36
the ships and cars and shipping
containers and trucks
containers and trucks
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brodove, i kola,
i prenosne kontejnere, i kamione
i prenosne kontejnere, i kamione
06:39
that move around our world on a daily basis,
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koji se svakodnevno kreću po svetu,
06:42
while conveniently still not
being able to see individuals.
being able to see individuals.
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dok, zgodno, još uvek ne možemo
da vidimo ljude.
da vidimo ljude.
06:46
We had found our compromise.
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Tako smo pronašli kompromis.
06:47
We would have to build something larger
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Morali bismo napraviti nešto veće
06:49
than the original breadbox,
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od početne kutije za hleb,
06:51
now more like a mini-fridge,
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pre nešto veličine malog frižidera,
06:52
but we still wouldn't have to build a pickup truck.
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ali ipak nismo morali sagraditi kamionet.
06:55
So now we had our constraint.
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Sada smo imali svoju granicu.
06:58
The laws of physics dictated
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Zakoni fizike su diktirali
06:59
the absolute minimum-sized
telescope that we could build.
telescope that we could build.
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konačnu najmanju veličinu teleskopa
koju smo mogli sagraditi.
koju smo mogli sagraditi.
07:03
What came next was making the rest of the satellite
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Zatim je trebalo sagraditi ostatak satelita
07:06
as small and as simple as possible,
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u što manjoj i jednostavnijoj formi,
07:07
basically a flying telescope with four walls
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u suštini, leteći teleskop sa četiri zida
07:10
and a set of electronics smaller than a phone book
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i eletronikom manjom od imenika
07:13
that used less power than a 100 watt lightbulb.
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koji bi koristio manje struje
nego sijalica od 100 vati.
nego sijalica od 100 vati.
07:16
The big challenge became actually taking
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Veliki izazov je bio zaista napraviti
07:18
the pictures through that telescope.
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slike kroz taj teleskop.
07:21
Traditional imaging satellites use a line scanner,
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Klasični sateliti za snimanje
koriste linearni skener,
koriste linearni skener,
07:24
similar to a Xerox machine,
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sličan mašini za kopiranje,
07:25
and as they traverse the Earth, they take pictures,
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i dok krstare iznad Zemlje,
oni fotografišu,
oni fotografišu,
07:28
scanning row by row by row
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skenirajući red po red,
07:30
to build the complete image.
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da bi stvorili potpunu sliku.
07:32
Now people use these because they get a lot of light,
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Oni se koriste jer primaju dosta svetla,
07:35
which means less of the noise you see
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što znači manje smetnji nego što se dobija
07:37
in a low-cost cell phone image.
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u slikama sa jeftinog mobilnog telefona.
07:39
The problem with them is they require
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Problem sa njima je to što zahtevaju
07:42
very sophisticated pointing.
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veoma precizno ciljanje.
07:44
You have to stay focused on a 50-centimeter target
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Moraju biti fokusirani
na metu od 50 centimetara
na metu od 50 centimetara
07:46
from over 600 miles away
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na udaljenosti od oko 1000 kilometara
07:48
while moving at more than
seven kilometers a second,
seven kilometers a second,
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krećući se brzinom od preko
sedam kilometara u sekundi,
sedam kilometara u sekundi,
07:50
which requires an awesome degree of complexity.
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što zahteva neverovatnu složenost.
07:53
So instead, we turned to a new
generation of video sensors,
generation of video sensors,
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Umesto toga, mi smo se okrenuli
novoj generaciji video senzora,
novoj generaciji video senzora,
07:57
originally created for use in night vision goggles.
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prvenstveno konstruisanih
za naočare za gledanje u mraku.
za naočare za gledanje u mraku.
08:00
Instead of taking a single, high quality image,
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Umesto hvatanja jedne slike
visokog kvaliteta
visokog kvaliteta
08:03
we could take a videostream
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mogli smo uhvatiti video tok
08:04
of individually noisier frames,
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zasebnih lošijih ramova,
08:07
but then we could recombine
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no, tako smo mogli ponovo kombinovati
08:09
all of those frames together
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sve te kadrove
08:10
into very high-quality images
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u slike veoma visokog kvaliteta
08:12
using sophisticated pixel processing techniques
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koristeći prefinjene tehnike obrade piksela
08:15
here on the ground,
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ovde na zemlji,
08:16
at a cost of one one hundredth a traditional system.
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po ceni jednog stotog dela
klasičnog sistema.
klasičnog sistema.
08:19
And we applied this technique
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Ovu tehniku smo primenili
08:20
to many of the other systems on the satellite as well,
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na mnoge druge sisteme na satelitu,
08:23
and day by day, our design evolved
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i dan po dan, naš dizajn je prerastao
08:26
from CAD to prototypes
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od CAD-a preko prototipa
08:30
to production units.
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do proizvodnih jedinica.
08:33
A few short weeks ago,
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Pre samo nekoliko nedelja,
08:34
we packed up SkySat 1,
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spakovali smo SkajSet 1,
08:36
put our signatures on it,
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potpisali ga,
08:38
and waved goodbye for the last time on Earth.
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i oprostili se sa njim sa Zemlje.
08:40
Today, it's sitting in its final launch configuration
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Danas se nalazi na konačnoj
lansirnoj konfiguraciji
lansirnoj konfiguraciji
08:44
ready to blast off in a few short weeks.
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spreman da poleti
za samo nekoliko nedelja.
za samo nekoliko nedelja.
08:47
And soon, we'll turn our attention to launching
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Uskoro ćemo se usredsrediti na lansiranje
08:49
a constellation of 24 or more of these satellites
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sazvežđa od 24 ili više ovakvih satelita
08:52
and beginning to build the scalable analytics
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i započeti gradnju skalabilnih analiza
08:55
that will allow us to unearth the insights
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koje će nam omogućiti da obelodanimo uvide
08:57
in the petabytes of data we will collect.
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u petabajte podataka koje ćemo sakupiti.
09:00
So why do all of this? Why build these satellites?
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Ali zašto bismo sve to radili?
Zašto bismo pravili takve satelite?
Zašto bismo pravili takve satelite?
09:04
Well, it turns out imaging satellites
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Pa, ispada da sateliti za snimanje
09:07
have a unique ability to provide global transparency,
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imaju jedinstvenu sposobnost
globalne transparentnosti,
globalne transparentnosti,
09:10
and providing that transparency on a timely basis
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a blagovremeno omogućavanje
te transparentnosti
te transparentnosti
09:13
is simply an idea whose time has come.
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je prosto ideja čije je vreme došlo.
09:16
We see ourselves as pioneers of a new frontier,
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Smatramo se pionirima novog smera,
09:20
and beyond economic data,
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koji van privrednih podataka,
09:22
unlocking the human story, moment by moment.
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otključavaju ljudsku priču, tren po tren.
09:25
For a data scientist
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Meni kao nekome
ko se bavi analizom podataka
ko se bavi analizom podataka
09:27
that just happened to go to space camp as a kid,
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koji je kao mali
posećivao svemirsku stanicu,
posećivao svemirsku stanicu,
09:30
it just doesn't get much better than that.
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nema ničeg boljeg od toga.
09:32
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
09:35
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Berkenstock - Satellite designerDan Berkenstock and his team at Skybox Imaging are rethinking how to take photographs from space.
Why you should listen
Dan Berkenstock is an entrepreneur and engineer from Chicago, who fell into a classic tale of Silicon Valley innovation while taking a graduate entrepreneurship course at Stanford. That class led him and some others to found Skybox Imaging, of which Berkenstock is now executive vice president and chief product officer.
Skybox's mission is simple, if bold: they're working to design and launch small satellites that "hitchhike" to space in an effort to revolutionize the satellite imaging business. In 2013, SkySat-1, the first such satellite, was launched and is now beaming back images that are high-enough resolution to show the real-time state of global commerce. The idea: to "revolutionize the ways that consumers, businesses, and governments make decisions in their day-to-day lives."
In a previous life, Berkenstock worked in the Advanced Supercomputing Division at NASA's Ames Research Center, and also worked as a counterproliferation analyst at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, where he focused on trying to find and thwart potential potential smugglers of nuclear technologies. He is currently on leave from the Ph.D. program in aeronautics and astronautics at Stanford University.
Dan Berkenstock | Speaker | TED.com