TED@BCG San Francisco
Dan Berkenstock: The world is one big dataset. Now, how to photograph it ...
丹．伯肯辛竇: 世界有如巨大的數據，至於怎麼拍照出來嘛...
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我們對衛星拍出來的照片都很熟，卻不曉得它們都沒更新過。原因出於衛星又大又貴，能送出外太空少之又少。在這場精彩無比得演講中，講者提到他及團隊成功設計出便宜、輕如鴻毛的衛星，讓問題迎刃冰解。以大膽創新，前所未見的方式拍出地球的日常活動。
Dan Berkenstock - Satellite designer
Dan Berkenstock and his team at Skybox Imaging are rethinking how to take photographs from space. Full bio
Dan Berkenstock and his team at Skybox Imaging are rethinking how to take photographs from space. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Five years ago, I was a Ph.D. student
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我五年前還是個博士生
00:15
living two lives.
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過著兩種生活
00:16
In one, I used NASA supercomputers
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一個是用美國太空總署的超級電腦
00:19
to design next-generation spacecraft,
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設計下一代的太空船
00:21
and in the other I was a data scientist
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另一個身分則是數據科學家
00:24
looking for potential smugglers
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找出誰有可能走私
00:26
of sensitive nuclear technologies.
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性能高的核能科技
00:30
As a data scientist, I did a lot of analyses,
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那作為一個數據科學家
00:32
mostly of facilities,
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我做了不少的數據分析在設備方面
00:34
industrial facilities around the world.
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像世界各地的工業設備
00:36
And I was always looking for a better canvas
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我總是在尋找更好的畫面
00:39
to tie these all together.
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把落在各地的工業設備拍在一起
00:41
And one day, I was thinking about how
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有天突然靈機一動
00:43
all data has a location,
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想到全部的數據不都有存放的地方
00:45
and I realized that the answer
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瞬間發現
00:47
had been staring me in the face.
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答案早就在眼前了
00:48
Although I was a satellite engineer,
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雖然我是衛星工程師
00:51
I hadn't thought about using satellite imagery
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卻從未想在工作中
00:54
in my work.
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使用衛星成像
00:56
Now, like most of us, I'd been online,
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你們大都知道我常在線上
00:58
I'd see my house, so I thought,
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我看得到我家，所以我就想
01:00
I'll hop in there and I'll start looking up
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我可以跳入這個領域，然後開始尋找
01:02
some of these facilities.
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這類的設備
01:03
And what I found really surprised me.
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我對搜尋的結果感到訝異
01:05
The pictures that I was finding
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我所找到的圖片
01:07
were years out of date,
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已經遠遠過時了
01:09
and because of that,
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也因為這樣
01:10
it had relatively little relevance
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過時的圖對我
01:12
to the work that I was doing today.
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現今的工作毫無關聯
01:14
But I was intrigued.
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卻引起我的好奇心
01:16
I mean, satellite imagery is pretty amazing stuff.
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用衛星拍出圖像是很酷的事
01:19
There are millions and millions of sensors
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今天有好幾百萬的感應器
01:21
surrounding us today,
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充斥在你我的周遭
01:22
but there's still so much we
don't know on a daily basis.
don't know on a daily basis.
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我們卻對每日的變動一無所知
01:25
How much oil is stored in all of China?
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像中國蘊藏多少油?
01:29
How much corn is being produced?
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有多少穀物生產?
01:32
How many ships are in all of our world's ports?
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今日全球有多少船駐入港口?
01:36
Now, in theory, all of these questions
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理論上來講，這些問題
01:39
could be answered by imagery,
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可以看圖像回答
01:41
but not if it's old.
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但若用過時的可就難了
01:43
And if this data was so valuable,
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倘若這數據很珍貴
01:45
then how come I couldn't get my hands
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我怎會沒法子
01:47
on more recent pictures?
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取得更多得近照呢?
01:50
So the story begins over 50 years ago
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所以要從 50 年前講起
01:53
with the launch of the first generation
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當美國政府發射出第一代
01:55
of U.S. government photo reconnaissance satellites.
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衛星拍攝照片以利勘察
01:58
And today, there's a handful
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今日
02:00
of the great, great grandchildren
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到處可見這些
02:02
of these early Cold War machines
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早期冷戰留下來的機器
02:04
which are now operated by private companies
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現在都由私營企業經營
02:06
and from which the vast majority of satellite imagery
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也就是你我看到每日
02:09
that you and I see on a daily basis comes.
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由衛星拍出的圖像
02:11
During this period, launching things into space,
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在這期間，射東西到外太空
02:14
just the rocket to get the satellite up there,
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像用火箭射出衛星到外太空
02:17
has cost hundreds of millions of dollars each,
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每射出一次就要花好幾億
02:22
and that's created tremendous pressure
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壓力大到喘不過氣來
02:23
to launch things infrequently
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所以久久才會射到外太空
02:26
and to make sure that when you do,
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而且還要確保射時
02:27
you cram as much functionality in there as possible.
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要盡一切塞進一堆功能
02:31
All of this has only made satellites
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這只讓衛星
02:32
bigger and bigger and bigger
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變得越來越來越大
02:35
and more expensive,
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越來越貴
02:36
now nearly a billion, with a b, dollars per copy.
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現在都要十億美元了，每份都是億開頭的
02:41
Because they are so expensive,
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正因為它們超級貴
02:43
there aren't very many of them.
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所以數量不多
02:44
Because there aren't very many of them,
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也因為數量不多
02:46
the pictures that we see on a daily basis
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平常看到的照片
02:48
tend to be old.
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都早就過時以久了
02:50
I think a lot of people actually
understand this anecdotally,
understand this anecdotally,
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我想大家都聽得懂我再講什麼
02:53
but in order to visualize just how sparsely
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但為了能用想像得出
02:56
our planet is collected,
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地球的照片真是少得可憐
02:57
some friends and I put together a dataset
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我與朋友就開始集中數據
03:00
of the 30 million pictures that have been gathered
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集到三千萬張的照片
03:02
by these satellites between 2000 and 2010.
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都是在 2000-2010 年的衛星拍的
03:06
As you can see in blue, huge areas of our world
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那一大片藍色代表
地球罕見的地方
地球罕見的地方
03:08
are barely seen, less than once a year,
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甚至一年也沒見過一次
03:11
and even the areas that are seen most frequently,
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就算是最常看見的地方
03:13
those in red, are seen at best once a quarter.
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紅色代表至少一季見過一次
03:17
Now as aerospace engineering grad students,
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身為航空航天工程學的研究生
03:20
this chart cried out to us as a challenge.
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這圖表簡直觸動我每一根神經
03:23
Why do these things have to be so expensive?
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有必要那麼貴嗎?
03:27
Does a single satellite really have to cost
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一顆衛星真得有必要貴到
03:30
the equivalent of three 747 jumbo jets?
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約 3 台波音 747 飛機合起來的價格嗎?
03:34
Wasn't there a way to build a smaller,
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難道就沒有方法建造
03:37
simpler, new satellite design that could enable
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更小、更簡單、更新穎的設計
03:40
more timely imaging?
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更有效率的拍出圖像嗎?
03:42
I realize that it does sound a little bit crazy
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我知道這聽來像瘋了
03:45
that we were going to go out and just
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但我們決定要到外面亂闖
03:47
begin designing satellites,
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只為了重新設計衛星
03:49
but fortunately we had help.
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好在我們有貴人
03:51
In the late 1990s, a couple of professors
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在 1990 年末
03:53
proposed a concept for radically reducing the price
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有幾位教授打膽提出
03:57
of putting things in space.
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讓衛星射到外大空更便宜的方案
03:59
This was hitchhiking small satellites
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這些小衛星
04:01
alongside much larger satellites.
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都是隨著較大的射出
04:04
This dropped the cost of putting objects up there
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這大幅降低成本
04:07
by over a factor of 100,
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超過 100 倍
04:09
and suddenly we could afford to experiment,
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突然間，研究變成負擔得起了
04:12
to take a little bit of risk,
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冒一點風險
04:13
and to realize a lot of innovation.
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就可成就更多的創新
04:16
And a new generation of engineers and scientists,
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新一代的工程師和科學家
04:19
mostly out of universities,
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大多大學畢業
04:20
began launching these very small,
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就開始射出小的
04:23
breadbox-sized satellites called CubeSats.
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像土司箱的人工衛星叫作CubeSats
04:25
And these were built with electronics obtained
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這些電子器件都取自無線電屋公司
04:28
from RadioShack instead of Lockheed Martin.
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不是洛克西德公司的
04:32
Now it was using the lessons
learned from these early missions
learned from these early missions
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接下來就是跟前人取經
04:34
that my friends and I began a series of sketches
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朋友跟我開始畫出
04:37
of our own satellite design.
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一系列有關衛星的草圖
04:39
And I can't remember a specific day
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記不得是哪一天
04:42
where we made a conscious decision
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不知是哪根蔥促使我們
04:43
that we were actually going to
go out and build these things,
go out and build these things,
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決心將這些草圖變成實體
04:46
but once we got that idea in our minds
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一旦那慾望跑進我們的腦海裡
04:48
of the world as a dataset,
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要將世界變成數據
04:51
of being able to capture millions of data points
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要能夠捕捉好幾百萬的數據點
04:53
on a daily basis describing the global economy,
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日日都能收到
相關全球經濟的資料
相關全球經濟的資料
04:56
of being able to unearth billions of connections
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能夠接收到幾十億地球外的資訊
04:59
between them that had never before been found,
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而且是前所未聞的
05:02
it just seemed boring
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這麼一想
05:03
to go work on anything else.
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要去做別的事情就沒勁了
05:06
And so we moved into a cramped,
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所以我們就搬到帕羅奧圖城市
05:09
windowless office in Palo Alto,
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又窄小又沒窗戶的辦公室
05:12
and began working to take our design
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開始將草圖上的設計
05:14
from the drawing board into the lab.
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搬進實驗室做出實體
05:17
The first major question we had to tackle
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我們遇到第一大的問題
05:20
was just how big to build this thing.
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就是要建造的有多大
05:22
In space, size drives cost,
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在外太空，尺寸越大價格越貴
05:25
and we had worked with these very small,
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而我們在學校裡
05:27
breadbox-sized satellites in school,
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有做過像土司箱大小的衛星
05:30
but as we began to better
understand the laws of physics,
understand the laws of physics,
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隨著對物理定律的了解加深
05:32
we found that the quality of pictures
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發現由衛星拍出
05:34
those satellites could take was very limited,
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圖像的品質很有限
05:37
because the laws of physics dictate
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因為物理定律名確指出
05:39
that the best picture you
can take through a telescope
can take through a telescope
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要能拍出質感好的圖像
05:42
is a function of the diameter of that telescope,
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跟望眼鏡的直徑有關
05:44
and these satellites had a very small,
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但這些衛星都非常小
05:46
very constrained volume.
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容量也有限
05:48
And we found that the best picture we would
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我們發現拍出最棒的
05:50
have been able to get looked something like this.
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圖像卻長這樣子
05:52
Although this was the low-cost option,
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雖然成本低
05:54
quite frankly it was just too blurry
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但真得太模糊了
05:56
to see the things that make
satellite imagery valuable.
satellite imagery valuable.
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這樣子衛星的優點都沒發揮出來
05:59
So about three or four weeks later,
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所以約 3-4 個星期後
06:02
we met a group of engineers randomly
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偶遇一個團隊的工程師
06:04
who had worked on the first
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衛星首次傳送圖像
06:06
private imaging satellite ever developed,
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就是他們打造的
06:09
and they told us that back in the 1970s,
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他們說 1970 年時
06:11
the U.S. government had found a powerful
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美國政府有找到強而有力的方式
06:13
optimal tradeoff --
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拍出清晰圖像
06:14
that in taking pictures at right
about one meter resolution,
about one meter resolution,
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拍照時用 100 公分的解析度
06:18
being able to see objects one meter in size,
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就能以同樣的尺寸拍到物體
06:20
they had found that they could not
just get very high-quality images,
just get very high-quality images,
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他們發現怎樣就是
拍不出解析度高的圖像
拍不出解析度高的圖像
06:23
but get a lot of them at an affordable price.
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所以用能負擔的價格多拍幾張
06:26
From our own computer simulations,
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我們用電腦模擬
06:28
we quickly found that one meter really was
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迅速發現 100 公分
06:30
the minimum viable product
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小物體是可行的
06:32
to be able to see the drivers of our global economy,
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能夠見到全球經濟的驅動
06:35
for the first time, being able to count
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第一次我們能夠算出
06:36
the ships and cars and shipping
containers and trucks
containers and trucks
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有多少船、車輛、運輸、貨櫃、卡車
06:39
that move around our world on a daily basis,
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每天在全球運作
06:42
while conveniently still not
being able to see individuals.
being able to see individuals.
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雖然還不能夠很簡單的看清楚人
06:46
We had found our compromise.
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我們也找到妥協的方法
06:47
We would have to build something larger
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我們需要建造比原形
06:49
than the original breadbox,
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吐司箱大小更大的東西
06:51
now more like a mini-fridge,
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看起來像個迷你冰箱
06:52
but we still wouldn't have to build a pickup truck.
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還不到建造小貨車尺寸的地步
06:55
So now we had our constraint.
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現在出現另一個限制
06:58
The laws of physics dictated
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物理定律指出
06:59
the absolute minimum-sized
telescope that we could build.
telescope that we could build.
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我們能建造出最小的望眼鏡尺寸
07:03
What came next was making the rest of the satellite
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接下來的任務就是打造出
07:06
as small and as simple as possible,
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越小越簡單的衛星越好
07:07
basically a flying telescope with four walls
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基本上就是一個
會飛的四面望眼鏡
會飛的四面望眼鏡
07:10
and a set of electronics smaller than a phone book
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有著一組電子器材
比一本電話簿還小
比一本電話簿還小
07:13
that used less power than a 100 watt lightbulb.
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用量低於100瓦燈泡
07:16
The big challenge became actually taking
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挑戰接著變成
07:18
the pictures through that telescope.
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能否順利拍下圖像?
07:21
Traditional imaging satellites use a line scanner,
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傳統衛星拍的圖像都用線掃描器
07:24
similar to a Xerox machine,
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就像一台影印機一樣
07:25
and as they traverse the Earth, they take pictures,
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然後它們就會橫越地球拍照
07:28
scanning row by row by row
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每行每行的掃描
07:30
to build the complete image.
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以便建立完整的圖像
07:32
Now people use these because they get a lot of light,
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現在人們都能用因為他們亮多了
07:35
which means less of the noise you see
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這意味著畫質清晰多了
07:37
in a low-cost cell phone image.
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不像用廉價的手機拍照一樣的粗糙
07:39
The problem with them is they require
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然而，又有問題出現了
07:42
very sophisticated pointing.
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它們需要很精緻的數據點
07:44
You have to stay focused on a 50-centimeter target
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每秒能夠橫越超過七公里
07:46
from over 600 miles away
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就能擁有很棒的解析度
07:48
while moving at more than
seven kilometers a second,
seven kilometers a second,
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但離物體遠超過 600 英呎的地方
07:50
which requires an awesome degree of complexity.
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卻只能聚焦物體的 50 公分
07:53
So instead, we turned to a new
generation of video sensors,
generation of video sensors,
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所以我們轉向新一代的錄影感應器
07:57
originally created for use in night vision goggles.
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原本是要用於夜視眼鏡
08:00
Instead of taking a single, high quality image,
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與其一次拍下高值圖像
08:03
we could take a videostream
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我們就用視訊流拍下
08:04
of individually noisier frames,
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一張張粗糙的圖像
08:07
but then we could recombine
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然後幫它們
08:09
all of those frames together
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結成一體
08:10
into very high-quality images
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成為高質圖像
08:12
using sophisticated pixel processing techniques
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使用的是精密的機器處理畫素
08:15
here on the ground,
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就在這地上
08:16
at a cost of one one hundredth a traditional system.
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是原來成本的百分之一
08:19
And we applied this technique
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我們也使用這科技
08:20
to many of the other systems on the satellite as well,
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在別的衛星系統上
08:23
and day by day, our design evolved
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我們的設計每篇都會做更換
08:26
from CAD to prototypes
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從電腦輔助設計軟體、原型
08:30
to production units.
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到生產線
08:33
A few short weeks ago,
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幾星期前
08:34
we packed up SkySat 1,
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我們製的衛星 SkySat 一號準備好了
08:36
put our signatures on it,
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簽上我們的名字後
08:38
and waved goodbye for the last time on Earth.
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就等著與地球拜拜
08:40
Today, it's sitting in its final launch configuration
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今日它仍在它當初射出的位置
08:44
ready to blast off in a few short weeks.
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準備在幾星期後射出
08:47
And soon, we'll turn our attention to launching
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很快的，我們的注意力轉到發射
08:49
a constellation of 24 or more of these satellites
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一群 24 台或更多的衛星
08:52
and beginning to build the scalable analytics
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開始提供數據分析
08:55
that will allow us to unearth the insights
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讓我們看到地球外的視野
08:57
in the petabytes of data we will collect.
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用拍位元組收集而成
09:00
So why do all of this? Why build these satellites?
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用意是什麼? 為何要製造這些衛星?
09:04
Well, it turns out imaging satellites
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因為用衛星傳送圖像
09:07
have a unique ability to provide global transparency,
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才有辦法提供國際的透明度
09:10
and providing that transparency on a timely basis
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為此透明度提供有效的時間單位
09:13
is simply an idea whose time has come.
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就是靈感的來源
09:16
We see ourselves as pioneers of a new frontier,
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我們是自己為新領域的先驅
09:20
and beyond economic data,
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經濟數據也時時刻刻
09:22
unlocking the human story, moment by moment.
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為人類提供圖像
09:25
For a data scientist
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作為數據科學家
09:27
that just happened to go to space camp as a kid,
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感覺就像是個小孩
去了一趟外太空野營
去了一趟外太空野營
09:30
it just doesn't get much better than that.
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沒有什麼比這感到更棒了
09:32
Thank you.
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謝謝
09:35
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Berkenstock - Satellite designerDan Berkenstock and his team at Skybox Imaging are rethinking how to take photographs from space.
Why you should listen
Dan Berkenstock is an entrepreneur and engineer from Chicago, who fell into a classic tale of Silicon Valley innovation while taking a graduate entrepreneurship course at Stanford. That class led him and some others to found Skybox Imaging, of which Berkenstock is now executive vice president and chief product officer.
Skybox's mission is simple, if bold: they're working to design and launch small satellites that "hitchhike" to space in an effort to revolutionize the satellite imaging business. In 2013, SkySat-1, the first such satellite, was launched and is now beaming back images that are high-enough resolution to show the real-time state of global commerce. The idea: to "revolutionize the ways that consumers, businesses, and governments make decisions in their day-to-day lives."
In a previous life, Berkenstock worked in the Advanced Supercomputing Division at NASA's Ames Research Center, and also worked as a counterproliferation analyst at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, where he focused on trying to find and thwart potential potential smugglers of nuclear technologies. He is currently on leave from the Ph.D. program in aeronautics and astronautics at Stanford University.
Dan Berkenstock | Speaker | TED.com