TED2017
Tim Kruger: Can we stop climate change by removing CO2 from the air?
Tim Kruger: Da li možemo da zaustavimo klimatske promene uklanjanjem ugljen-dioksida iz vazduha?
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Da li bismo mogli da zalečimo klimatske promene? Istraživač geoinženjeringa Tim Kruger želi da proba. On deli jednu obećavajaću mogućnost: korišćenje zemnog gasa za stvaranje struje tako da se ugljen-dioksid uklanja iz vazduha. Naučite više o mogućnostima i rizicima ovog kontroverznog polja koje traži kreativni, promišljen izum velikog razmera koji bi zaustavio dalje razvijanje katastrofalnih posledica po našu planetu.
Tim Kruger - Geoengineering researcher
Tim Kruger researches geoengineering: techniques to counteract climate change by deliberate, large-scale intervention in the earth system -- either by reflecting sunlight back into space or by reducing the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Full bio
Tim Kruger researches geoengineering: techniques to counteract climate change by deliberate, large-scale intervention in the earth system -- either by reflecting sunlight back into space or by reducing the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
To avoid dangerous climate change,
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Kako bismo izbegli
opasne klimatske promene,
opasne klimatske promene,
00:15
we're going to need
to cut emissions rapidly.
to cut emissions rapidly.
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moraćemo da drastično smanjimo emisije.
00:18
That should be a pretty
uncontentious statement,
uncontentious statement,
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To ne bi trebalo da izazove neslaganja,
00:21
certainly with this audience.
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pogotovo kod ove publike.
00:23
But here's something
that's slightly more contentious:
that's slightly more contentious:
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Ali, evo nečega što će biti
malo problematično -
malo problematično -
00:26
it's not going to be enough.
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to neće biti dovoljno.
00:29
We will munch our way through
our remaining carbon budget
our remaining carbon budget
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Premašićemo granicu emisije CO2
00:33
for one and a half degrees
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i temperatura će porasti
za 1,5 stepena za par kratkih godina,
za 1,5 stepena za par kratkih godina,
00:34
in a few short years,
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00:37
and the two degree budget
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a za 2 stepena
00:38
in about two decades.
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u otprilike naredne 2 decenije.
00:41
We need to not only cut emissions
extremely rapidly,
extremely rapidly,
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Nećemo morati samo
da drastično smanjimo emisije,
da drastično smanjimo emisije,
00:45
we also need to take carbon dioxide
out of the atmosphere.
out of the atmosphere.
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već i da uklonimo CO2 iz atmosfere.
00:50
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
00:52
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:53
I work assessing a whole range
of these proposed techniques
of these proposed techniques
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Ja radim na procenjivanju
različitih predloženih tehnika
različitih predloženih tehnika
00:58
to see if they can work.
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kako bih video da li rade.
01:00
We could use plants to take CO2 out,
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Mogli bismo da koristimo biljke
kako bismo uklonili CO2
kako bismo uklonili CO2
01:04
and then store it in trees,
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i onda da ga skladištimo u drveće,
01:06
in the soil, deep underground
or in the oceans.
or in the oceans.
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u površinski sloj zemlje
ili dubinski, ili u okeane.
ili dubinski, ili u okeane.
01:09
We could build large machines,
so-called artificial trees,
so-called artificial trees,
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Mogli bismo da izgradimo velike mašine,
takozvano veštačko drveće,
takozvano veštačko drveće,
01:14
that will scrub CO2 from the air.
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koje bi malo uklanjalo CO2 iz vazduha.
01:16
For these ideas to be feasible,
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Kako bi ove ideje bile izvodljive,
01:18
we need to understand
whether they can be applied
whether they can be applied
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moramo da znamo da li mogu biti primenjene
01:21
at a vast scale in a way that is safe,
economic and socially acceptable.
economic and socially acceptable.
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na većoj razmeri bezbedno,
ekonomično i društveno prihvatljivo.
ekonomično i društveno prihvatljivo.
01:27
All of these ideas come with tradeoffs.
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Svaka od ovih ideja je kompromisna.
01:30
None of them are perfect,
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Nijedna nije savršena,
01:32
but many have potential.
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ali mnoge imaju potencijal.
01:35
It's unlikely that any one of them
will solve it on its own.
will solve it on its own.
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Malo je verovatno da bi bilo koja od njih
sama rešila problem.
sama rešila problem.
Nema magičnog rešenja,
01:38
There is no silver bullet,
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01:40
but potentially together,
they may form the silver buckshot
they may form the silver buckshot
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ali bi one potencijalno mogle
zajedno da sastave rešenje
zajedno da sastave rešenje
01:43
that we need to stop
climate change in its tracks.
climate change in its tracks.
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koje nam je potrebno da sprečimo
klimatske promene sada.
klimatske promene sada.
01:48
I'm working independently
on one particular idea
on one particular idea
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Nezavisno radim na jednoj ideji
01:52
which uses natural gas
to generate electricity
to generate electricity
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koja koristi zemni gas u stvaranju struje
01:55
in a way that takes
carbon dioxide out of the air.
carbon dioxide out of the air.
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tako da oduzima
ugljen-dioksid iz atmosfere.
ugljen-dioksid iz atmosfere.
01:59
Huh? How does that work?
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A? Kako to radi?
02:01
So the Origen Power Process
feeds natural gas into a fuel cell.
feeds natural gas into a fuel cell.
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„Oridžin Pauer Proces“ puni
gorivnu ćeliju zemnim gasom.
gorivnu ćeliju zemnim gasom.
02:06
About half the chemical energy
is converted into electricity,
is converted into electricity,
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Oko pola te hemijske energije
se pretvara u struju,
se pretvara u struju,
02:10
and the remainder into heat,
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a ostatak u toplotu,
02:12
which is used to break down limestone
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koja se koristi za razgradnju krečenjaka
02:15
into lime and carbon dioxide.
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na kreč i ugljen-dioksid.
02:17
Now at this point, you're probably
thinking that I'm nuts.
thinking that I'm nuts.
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Sad verovatno mislite da sam lud.
02:21
It's actually generating carbon dioxide.
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To zapravo stvara ugljen-dioksid.
02:24
But the key point is,
all of the carbon dioxide generated,
all of the carbon dioxide generated,
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Ali je ključno da je sav
nastali ugljen-dioksid,
nastali ugljen-dioksid,
02:28
both from the fuel cell
and from the lime kiln, is pure,
and from the lime kiln, is pure,
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onaj iz gorivne ćelije,
kao i onaj iz krečnjaka, čist,
kao i onaj iz krečnjaka, čist,
02:31
and that's really important,
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a to je veoma važno,
02:33
because it means you can
either use that carbon dioxide
either use that carbon dioxide
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jer to znači da se taj
ugljen-dioksid može koristiti
ugljen-dioksid može koristiti
02:35
or you can store it away
deep underground at low cost.
deep underground at low cost.
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ili pak skladišiti duboko u zemlju
po niskoj ceni.
po niskoj ceni.
02:40
And then the lime that you produce
can be used in industrial processes,
can be used in industrial processes,
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Nastali kreč se može koristiti
u industrijskim postrojenjima
u industrijskim postrojenjima
02:45
and in being used,
it scrubs CO2 out of the air.
it scrubs CO2 out of the air.
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i, kada se to čini,
CO2 se uklanja iz vazduha.
CO2 se uklanja iz vazduha.
02:50
Overall, the process is carbon negative.
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Sve u svemu, proces smanjuje
koncentraciju ugljen-dioksida.
koncentraciju ugljen-dioksida.
02:52
It removes carbon dioxide from the air.
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Uklanja ugljen-diokid iz vazduha.
02:56
If you normally generate
electricity from natural gas,
electricity from natural gas,
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Kada se klasično stvara
struja iz zemnog gasa,
struja iz zemnog gasa,
03:01
you emit about 400 grams
of CO2 into the air
of CO2 into the air
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oslobađa se oko 400 grama CO2 u vazduh
03:04
for every kilowatt-hour.
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za svaki kilovat sata.
03:07
With this process,
that figure is minus 600.
that figure is minus 600.
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Ovim procesom ta cifra je minus 600.
03:13
At the moment, power
generation is responsible
generation is responsible
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Trenutno, stvaranje struje je odgovorno
03:15
for about a quarter
of all carbon dioxide emissions.
of all carbon dioxide emissions.
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za četvrtinu svih emisija ugljen-dioksida.
03:20
Hypothetically, if you replaced
all power generation with this process,
all power generation with this process,
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Hipotetički, ako bismo zamenili ovim
procesom ostale načine stvaranja struje,
procesom ostale načine stvaranja struje,
03:25
then you would not only eliminate all
of the emissions from power generation
of the emissions from power generation
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ne samo da bismo eliminisali
sve emisije nastale stvaranjem struje,
sve emisije nastale stvaranjem struje,
03:29
but you would start removing emissions
from other sectors as well,
from other sectors as well,
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već bismo i uklanjali emisije ostalih
03:33
potentially cutting 60 percent
of overall carbon emissions.
of overall carbon emissions.
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i tako bi potencijalno bilo uklonjeno
60 procenata svih emisija ugljen-dioksida.
60 procenata svih emisija ugljen-dioksida.
03:38
You could even use the lime
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Kreč bi mogao da se koristi
03:41
to add it directly to seawater
to counteract ocean acidification,
to counteract ocean acidification,
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tako što bi se direktno
dodao u morsku vodu
dodao u morsku vodu
kako bi se sprečila acidifikacija okeana,
03:46
one of the other issues that is caused
by CO2 in the atmosphere.
by CO2 in the atmosphere.
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jedan od problema izazvanih od strane
ugljen-dioksida u atmosferi.
ugljen-dioksida u atmosferi.
03:51
In fact, you get more bang for your buck.
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Zapravo, odnos cene i dobitka
je još povoljniji.
je još povoljniji.
03:54
You absorb about twice as much
carbon dioxide when you add it to seawater
carbon dioxide when you add it to seawater
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Apsorbuje se duplo više ugljen-dioksida
kad se koristi morska voda
kad se koristi morska voda
03:58
as when you use it industrially.
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u industrijskom procesu.
04:01
But this is where it gets
really complicated.
really complicated.
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Ovde stvari postaju komplikovane.
04:03
While counteracting ocean
acidification is a good thing,
acidification is a good thing,
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Iako je proces neutralisanja
acidifikacije okeana dobar,
acidifikacije okeana dobar,
04:08
we don't fully understand
what the environmental consequences are,
what the environmental consequences are,
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ne razumemo u potpunosti
kakve su posledice po životnu sredinu,
kakve su posledice po životnu sredinu,
04:12
and so we need to assess
whether this treatment
whether this treatment
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tako da moramo da procenimo
da li je ovaj pristup
da li je ovaj pristup
04:15
is actually better than the disease
that it is seeking to cure.
that it is seeking to cure.
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zaista bolji od bolesti
koju želimo da izlečimo.
koju želimo da izlečimo.
04:18
We need to put in place
step-by-step governance
step-by-step governance
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Moramo da postepeno
upravljamo eksperimentima
upravljamo eksperimentima
04:22
for experiments to assess this safely.
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eksperimentima da bismo
bezbedno to procenili.
bezbedno to procenili.
04:25
And the scale:
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A razmera je sledeća:
04:28
to avoid dangerous climate change,
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da bismo izbegli opasne klimatske promene,
04:29
we are going to need
to remove trillions --
to remove trillions --
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biće potrebno da uklonimo trilione;
04:32
and yes, that's trillions with a T --
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da, trilione, sa slovom „t“,
04:34
trillions of tons of carbon dioxide
from the atmosphere in the decades ahead.
from the atmosphere in the decades ahead.
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trilione tona ugljen-dioksida iz atmosfere
u narednim decenijama.
u narednim decenijama.
04:40
It will cost a few percent of GDP --
think defense-sized expenditure,
think defense-sized expenditure,
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To će koštati nekoliko procenata BDP-a,
nalik troškovima za odbranu,
nalik troškovima za odbranu,
04:45
lots of industrial activity
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mnogo industrijske aktivnosti
04:47
and inevitably harmful side effects.
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i neizbežnih nuspojava.
04:51
But if the scale seems enormous,
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Ali, ako razmera izgleda ogromno,
04:53
it is only because
of the scale of the problem
of the scale of the problem
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to je zato što je razmera problema
04:55
that we are seeking to solve.
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ono što želimo da promenimo,
04:57
It's enormous as well.
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takođe ogromna.
05:00
We can no longer avoid
these thorny issues.
these thorny issues.
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Ne možemo više da izbegavamo
ove mučne probleme.
ove mučne probleme.
Suočavamo se sa rizicima
kud god se okrenemo;
kud god se okrenemo;
05:03
We face risks whichever way we turn:
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05:06
a world changed by climate change
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svet koji će promeniti klimatske promene
05:08
or a world changed by climate change
and our efforts to counter climate change.
and our efforts to counter climate change.
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ili svet koji će promeniti
klimatske promene
klimatske promene
i naši pokušaji da ih sprečimo.
05:14
Would that it were not so,
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Divno bi bilo da je tako jednostavno,
05:16
but we can no longer afford
to close our eyes, block our ears,
to close our eyes, block our ears,
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ali ne možemo više da priuštimo
da zatvaramo oči, začepljujemo uši
da zatvaramo oči, začepljujemo uši
05:19
and say la-la-la.
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i pevušimo: „La-la-la.“
05:21
We need to grow up and face
the consequences of our actions.
the consequences of our actions.
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Moramo da odrastemo i da se suočimo
sa posledicama naših postupaka.
sa posledicama naših postupaka.
05:25
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
05:30
Does talk of curing climate change
undermine the will to cut emissions?
undermine the will to cut emissions?
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Da li rasprava o sprečavanju
klimatskih promena
klimatskih promena
potkopava volju za smanjivanjem emisija?
05:37
This is a real concern,
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To je pravi problem,
05:38
so we need to emphasize the paramount
importance of reducing emissions
importance of reducing emissions
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tako da moramo da naglasimo
vrhovni značaj smanjivanja emisija
vrhovni značaj smanjivanja emisija
05:43
and how speculative these ideas are.
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i koliko su spekultaivne ove ideje.
05:46
But having done so,
we still need to examine them.
we still need to examine them.
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I ako to uradimo,
trebalo bi da ih proučavamo.
trebalo bi da ih proučavamo.
05:50
Can we cure climate change?
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Da li možemo da sprečimo
klimatske promene?
klimatske promene?
05:52
I don't know, but we certainly
can't if we don't try.
can't if we don't try.
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Ne znam, ali sigurno ne možemo
ako ne pokušamo.
ako ne pokušamo.
05:56
We need ambition without arrogance.
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Treba nam ambicija bez arogancije.
05:59
We need the ambition
to restore the atmosphere,
to restore the atmosphere,
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Treba nam ambicija da povratimo atmosferu,
06:03
to draw down carbon dioxide
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da smanjimo ugljen-dioksid
06:05
back to a level that is compatible
with a stable climate and healthy oceans.
with a stable climate and healthy oceans.
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na nivo koji omogućava
stabilnu klimu i zdrave okeane.
stabilnu klimu i zdrave okeane.
06:10
This will be an enormous undertaking.
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Ovo će biti ogroman podvig.
06:12
You could describe it
as a cathedral project.
as a cathedral project.
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Mogao bi se ilustrovati
kao projekat katedrale.
kao projekat katedrale.
06:16
Those involved at the outset
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Oni koji su uključeni na početku
06:18
may draft the plans
and dig the foundations,
and dig the foundations,
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možda će skicirati plan i kopati temelje,
06:21
but they will not raise the spire
to its full height.
to its full height.
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ali oni je neće podići u visine.
06:24
That task, that privilege,
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Taj zadatak, ta privilegija,
06:26
belongs to our descendants.
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pripada našim potomcima.
06:28
None of us will see that day,
but we must start in the hope
but we must start in the hope
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Niko od nas neće videti taj dan,
ali moramo početi sa nadom
ali moramo početi sa nadom
06:32
that future generations
will be able to finish the job.
will be able to finish the job.
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da će buduće generacije moći
da završe posao.
da završe posao.
06:36
So, do you want to change the world?
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Pa, da li želite da promenite svet?
06:40
I don't.
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Ja ne želim.
06:41
I do not seek the change the world,
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Ne tražim menjanje sveta,
06:44
but rather keep it as it's meant to be.
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već očuvanje onoga što on treba da bude.
06:47
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
06:48
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
06:54
Chris Anderson: Thanks. I just want
to ask you a couple of other questions.
to ask you a couple of other questions.
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Kris Anderson: Hvala. Hteo bih
da ti postavim još par pitanja.
da ti postavim još par pitanja.
06:57
Tell us a bit more about this idea
of putting lime in the ocean.
of putting lime in the ocean.
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Ispričaj nam još malo
o ideji sipanja kreča u okean.
o ideji sipanja kreča u okean.
07:01
I mean, on the face of it,
it's pretty compelling --
it's pretty compelling --
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Hoću da kažem da izgleda
veoma primamljivo,
veoma primamljivo,
07:03
anti-ocean acidification --
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sprečava acidifikaciju okeana
07:05
and it absorbs more CO2.
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i apsorbuje više CO2.
07:08
You talked about,
we need to do an experiment on this.
we need to do an experiment on this.
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Pominjao si da treba da sprovedemo
eksperiment o ovome.
eksperiment o ovome.
07:11
What would a responsible
experiment look like?
experiment look like?
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Kako bi on izgledao?
Tim Kruger: Smatram da treba
da se uradi niz eksperimenata,
da se uradi niz eksperimenata,
07:13
Tim Kruger: So I think you need to do
a series of experiments,
a series of experiments,
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ali treba da se urade postepeno,
07:16
but you need to do them
just very small stage-by-stage.
just very small stage-by-stage.
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kao što, kada testirate nov lek,
07:18
In the same way,
when you're trialing a new drug,
when you're trialing a new drug,
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07:21
you wouldn't just go
into human trials straight off.
into human trials straight off.
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ne počinjete sa testiranjem na ljudima.
07:23
You would do a small experiment.
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Prvo radite manji eksperiment.
07:25
And so the first things to do
are experiments entirely on land,
are experiments entirely on land,
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Prvo bi trebalo da se rade na kopnu,
07:29
in special containers,
away from the environment.
away from the environment.
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u specijalnim kontejnerima,
daleko od životne sredine.
daleko od životne sredine.
07:33
And then once you are confident
that that can be done safely,
that that can be done safely,
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A kada ste uvereni
da se to odvija bezbedno,
da se to odvija bezbedno,
07:36
you move to the next stage.
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prelazite u sledeću fazu.
07:37
If you're not confident, you don't.
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Ako niste, onda ne prelazite.
07:39
But step by step.
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Ali postepeno.
07:41
CA: And who would fund such experiments?
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KA: I ko bi finansirao takve eksperimente?
07:43
Because they kind of impact
the whole planet at some level.
the whole planet at some level.
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Jer imaju nekakav uticaj
na celu planetu na nekom nivou.
na celu planetu na nekom nivou.
07:47
Is that why nothing is happening on this?
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Da li je to razlog što se ništa
u vezi sa ovim ne dešava?
u vezi sa ovim ne dešava?
07:50
TK: So I think you can do small-scale
experiments in national waters,
experiments in national waters,
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TK: Mislim da mogu da se rade
manji eksperimenti u nacionalnim vodama.
manji eksperimenti u nacionalnim vodama.
07:53
and then it's probably the requirement
of national funders to do that.
of national funders to do that.
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To je verovatno uslov
za nacionalne finansijere.
za nacionalne finansijere.
07:59
But ultimately, if you wanted
to counter ocean acidification in this way
to counter ocean acidification in this way
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Ali, na kraju, ako želite da sprečite
acidifikaciju okeana na ovaj način,
acidifikaciju okeana na ovaj način,
08:04
on a global scale,
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u globalnim razmerama,
08:05
you would need to do it
in international waters,
in international waters,
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morate to da radite u međunarodnim vodama
08:07
and then you would need to have
an international community working on it.
an international community working on it.
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i trebala bi vam međunarodna
zajednica da radi na tome.
zajednica da radi na tome.
08:11
CA: Even in national waters,
you know, the ocean's all connected.
you know, the ocean's all connected.
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KA: Čak i u nacionalnim vodama,
okean je „povezan“.
okean je „povezan“.
08:14
That lime is going to get out there.
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Kreč će se mešati.
08:16
And people feel outraged
about doing experiments on the planet,
about doing experiments on the planet,
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A ljudi ne podnose eksperimente
koji se vrše nad planetom,
koji se vrše nad planetom,
08:19
as we've heard.
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što smo već čuli.
08:21
How do you counter that?
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Kako biste se tome usprotivili?
08:23
TK: I think you touch on something
which is really important.
which is really important.
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TK: Dotakli ste se nečega
što je jako važno.
što je jako važno.
08:26
It's about a social license to operate.
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To je društvena dozvola za rad.
08:28
And I think it may be
that it is impossible to do,
that it is impossible to do,
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Mislim da je možda nemoguće,
08:32
but we need to have the courage to try,
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ali moramo imati hrabrosti da probamo,
08:34
to move this forward,
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da pomerimo ovo napred,
08:36
to see what we can do,
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vidimo šta možemo da uradimo
08:37
and to engage openly.
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i da se otvoreno uključimo.
08:38
And we need to engage with people
in a transparent way.
in a transparent way.
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I treba da uključimo ljude transparentno.
08:41
We need to ask them beforehand.
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Treba da ih pitamo pre toga.
08:43
And I think if we ask them,
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I mislim da, ako ih pitamo,
08:45
we have to be open to the possibility
that the answer will come back,
that the answer will come back,
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moramo da budemo otvoreni
i za mogućnost odgovora:
i za mogućnost odgovora:
„Ne, ne činite to.“
08:49
"No, don't do it."
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08:50
CA: Thanks so much.
That was really fascinating.
That was really fascinating.
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KA: Hvala ti puno, Time.
Zaista fascinantno.
Zaista fascinantno.
Hvala vama.
08:53
TK: Thank you. (Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tim Kruger - Geoengineering researcherTim Kruger researches geoengineering: techniques to counteract climate change by deliberate, large-scale intervention in the earth system -- either by reflecting sunlight back into space or by reducing the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Why you should listen
While it is essential that we reduce global carbon emissions, that isn't going to be enough to avoid dangerous climate change. Research into proposed geoengineering techniques could prove vital in the fight to protect our planet. At the Oxford Geoengineering Programme, Tim Kruger aims to assess the range of proposed geoengineering techniques to determine which, if any, could be both technically feasible and benign environmentally, socially and ethically.
Kruger, a James Martin Fellow at the University of Oxford, is a co-author of "The Oxford Principles," a draft code of conduct for geoengineering research. It calls for geoengineering to be regulated as a public good, for public participation in decision-making and for disclosure of research and open publication of results.
In addition to his work at Oxford, Kruger is also CEO of Origen Power, which is developing a process that uses natural gas to generate electricity in a way that removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Tim Kruger | Speaker | TED.com