TED2004
Paul Moller: My dream of a flying car
Pol Moler (Paul Moller) o letećem automobilu
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Pol Moler govori o budućnosti pojedinačnog putovanja vazdušnim putem -- o braku između automobila i leta koji će nam dati istinsku slobodu da putujemo van puteva. Ovde pokazuje dve stvari na kojima radi: Molerov leteći automobil (avion + automobil) i putnički leteći disk.
Paul Moller - Inventor
With a team of engineers, Paul Moller works on the Skycar, a combination car and jet, as well as the M200, a saucer-shaped hovering car. He also develops next-generation engines to power these and other amazing vehicles. Full bio
With a team of engineers, Paul Moller works on the Skycar, a combination car and jet, as well as the M200, a saucer-shaped hovering car. He also develops next-generation engines to power these and other amazing vehicles. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Many of you could ask the question, you know,
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Mnogi od vas bi mogli pitati,
00:15
why is a flying car, or maybe more accurately,
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zbog čega je leteći automobil ili možda preciznije rečeno,
00:18
a roadable aircraft, possible at this time?
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putna letelica, ostvariva u ovom trenutku?
00:22
A number of years ago,
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Pre mnogo godina,
00:24
Mr. Ford predicted that flying cars
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gospodin Ford je predvideo da će leteći autombili
00:26
of some form would be available.
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u nekom obliku biti dostupni.
00:28
Now, 60 years later,
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Sada, 60 godina kasnije,
00:30
I'm here to tell you why it's possible.
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ovde sam da bih vam rekao zašto je to moguće.
00:32
When I was about five years old,
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Kada sam imao oko pet godina,
00:34
not very much -- about a year after
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ne mnogo, oko godinu nakon što je
00:36
Mr. Ford made his predictions,
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gospodin Ford izrekao svoje predviđanje,
00:38
I was living in a rural part of Canada,
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živeo sam u ruralnom delu Kanade,
00:41
on the side of a mountain in a very isolated area.
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na strani planine u veoma izolovanom području.
00:46
Getting to school, for a kid that was actually pretty short for his age,
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Odlazak u školu za klinca koji je prilično nizak za svoje godine,
00:50
through the Canadian winter, was not a pleasant experience.
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kroz kanadsku zimu, nije bilo prijatno iskustvo.
00:53
It was a trying and scary thing
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Za jedno dete je bilo naporno
00:57
for a young kid to be going through.
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i zastrašujuće da prolazi kroz to.
01:00
At the end of my first year in school, in the summer of that year,
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Na kraju moje prve školske godine, na leto,
01:05
I discovered a couple hummingbirds
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pronašao sam par kolibrija
01:08
that were caught in a shed near my home.
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koji su bili zarobljeni u šupi blizu moje kuće.
01:10
They'd worn themselves out,
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Oni su se iscrpeli,
01:12
beating themselves against the window,
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udarajući o prozor,
01:14
and, well, they were easy to capture.
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i naravno, bilo ih je lako uhvatiti.
01:16
I took them outside and as I let them go, that split second, even though they were very tired,
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Izneo sam ih napolje i pustio, i istog momenta, iako su bili veoma iscrpljeni,
01:20
that second I let them go they hovered for a second,
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odleteli su čim sam ih pustio,
01:22
then zipped off into the distance.
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a zatim su klisnuli u daljinu.
01:24
I thought, what a great way to get to school.
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Pomislio sam, kakav dobar način da odete u školu.
01:26
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:29
For a kid at that age, this was like infinite speed, disappearing,
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Za klinca tih godina, to je bila neograničena brzina nestajanja,
01:33
and I was very inspired by that.
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i bio sam veoma inspirisan time.
01:35
And so the next -- over the next
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I tako sledećih -- tokom sledećih
01:37
six decades, believe it or not,
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šest decenija, verovali ili ne,
01:39
I've built a number of aircraft,
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konstruisao sam brojne letelice,
01:42
with the goal of creating something that could do for you, or me,
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sa ciljem stvaranja nečega što bi za vas ili mene
01:46
what the hummingbird does,
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radilo ono što rade kolibri
01:48
and give you that flexibility.
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i što bi vam dalo tu fleksibilnost.
01:51
I've called this vehicle, generically, a volantor,
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Nazvao sam ovo vozilo, uopšteno, volantor,
01:55
after the Latin word "volant," meaning,
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prema latinskoj reči "volant", što znači,
01:57
to fly in a light, nimble manner.
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leteti na lagan, okretan način.
02:00
Volantor-like helicopter, perhaps.
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Volantor - verovatno kao helikopter.
02:02
The FAA, the controlling body above all,
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Federalna Avio-Administracija, regulatorno telo iznad svega,
02:05
calls it a "powered lift aircraft."
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nazvalo ga je "letelica sa podizanjem".
02:08
And they've actually issued a pilot's license --
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I zapravo su nam izdali pilotsku dozvolu --
02:11
a powerlift pilot's license -- for this type of aircraft.
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pilotsku dozvolu za letenje -- za ovaj tip letelice.
02:15
It's closer than you think. It's kind of remarkable when you consider that
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Bliže je nego što mislite. Na neki način to je neobično kada uzmete u obzir
02:18
there are no operational powered lift aircraft.
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da ne postoji funkcionalna letelica ovog tipa.
02:21
So for once, perhaps, the government is ahead of itself.
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I tako bar jedanput, možda, je vlast bila ispred sebe.
02:25
The press calls my particular volantor a "Skycar."
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Novinari su nazvali ovaj volantor " Leteći automobil".
02:30
This is a little bit earlier version of it,
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Ovo je nešto ranija verzija,
02:33
that's why it's given the X designation,
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i zbog toga mu je data namena X,
02:35
but it's a four-passenger aircraft
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ali to je letelica za četiri putnika
02:37
that could take off vertically, like a helicopter --
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koja bi mogla uzleteti vertikalno, kao helikopter --
02:39
therefore it doesn't need an airfield.
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stoga ne treba aerodrom.
02:41
On the ground, it's powered electrically.
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Na zemlji koristi električni pogon.
02:45
It's actually classified as a motorcycle
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Zapravo su ga klasifikovali kao motocikl
02:48
because of the three wheels, which is a great asset
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zbog tri točka, što je velika prednost,
02:50
because it allows you, theoretically, to use this on the highways
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jer vam omogućava, teoretski, da ga koristite na auto-putevima
02:52
in most states, and actually in all cities.
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u većini država i zapravo u svim gradovima.
02:55
So that's an asset because if you've got to deal with the crash protection issues
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Ovo je prednost, jer ukoliko morate da se suočite sa problemima zaštite pri sudaru
02:58
of the automobile, forget it -- you're never going to fly it.
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automobila, zaboravite -- nikad nećete poleteti.
03:02
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:07
One could say that a helicopter
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Neko bi mogao reći da helikopter
03:09
does pretty much what the hummingbird does,
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radi prilično isto što rade i kolibri,
03:12
and gets around in much the same way, and it's true,
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i da se kreće na isti način, to je istina,
03:14
but a helicopter is a very complex device.
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ali helikopter je veoma kompleksna letelica.
03:18
It's expensive --
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Skup je -- toliko skup,
03:20
so expensive that very few people could own or use it.
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da svega nekoliko ljudi mogu da koriste i poseduju sopstveni helikopter.
03:24
It's often been described because of its fragile nature and its complexity,
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Zbog svoje krhke prirode i kompleksnosti, često se opisuje
03:28
as a series of parts -- a large number of parts --
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kao niz delova -- veliki broj delova --
03:30
flying in formation.
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koji leti u formaciji.
03:32
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:37
Another difference, and I have to describe this,
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Još jedna razlika, ovo moram da spomenem,
03:39
because it's very personal,
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jer je veoma lično,
03:41
another great difference between the helicopter
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još jedna velika razlika između helikoptera
03:43
and the volantor --
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i volantora --
03:45
in my case the Skycar volantor --
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u mom slučaju letećeg automobila --
03:47
is the experience that I've had
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je iskustvo koje sam imao
03:49
in flying both of those.
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upravljajući obema letelicama.
03:51
In a helicopter you feel -- and it's still a remarkable sensation --
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U helikopteru se osećate -- što je i dalje neverovatan doživljaj --
03:54
you feel like you're being hauled up from above
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kao da vas je podigao
03:57
by a vibrating crane.
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vibrirajući kran.
03:59
When you get in the Skycar -- and I can tell you,
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Kada sednete u leteći automobil -- mogu vam reći,
04:01
there's only one other person that's flown it, but he had the same sensation --
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postoji još jedna osoba koja je njime letela, ali je imala isti doživljaj --
04:04
you really feel like you're being lifted up
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osećate se kao da vas je podigao
04:06
by a magic carpet,
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magični tepih,
04:09
without any vibration whatsoever. The sensation is unbelievable.
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bez ikakvih vibracija. Osećaj je neverovatan.
04:12
And it's been a great motivator.
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I to je sjajan motivator.
04:14
I only get to fly this vehicle occasionally,
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Samo povremeno letim ovim vozilom,
04:17
and only when I can persuade my stockholders
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jedino kada uspem da ubedim moje deoničare
04:19
to let me do so,
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da mi dopuste,
04:21
but it's still one of those wonderful experiences
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ali to je i dalje jedno od onih čudesnih iskustava
04:24
that reward you for all that time.
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koja vas nagrađuju za svo to vreme.
04:30
What we really need is something to replace the automobile
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Ono što zaista trebamo je nešto što će zameniti automobile
04:33
for those 50-plus mile trips.
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za ona putovanja preko 80 kilometara.
04:36
Very few people realize that 50 mile-plus trips
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Svega nekoliko ljudi uviđa da ova putovanja
04:38
make up 85 percent of the miles traveled in America.
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čine 85 procenata kilometraže pređene u Americi.
04:41
If we can get rid of that,
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Ako se možemo otarasiti toga,
04:43
then the highways will now be useful to you,
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tada će auto-putevi biti korisni za vas,
04:46
as contrasted by what's happening
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kao pandan onome što se danas događa
04:48
in many parts of the world today.
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u mnogim delovima sveta.
04:52
On this next slide, is an interesting history
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Na sledećem slajdu, nalazi se zanimljiva istorija
04:56
of what we really have seen in infrastructure,
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onoga što smo zaista videli u infrastrukturi,
05:00
because whether I give you a perfect Skycar,
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jer bilo da vam dam prefektan leteći automobil,
05:03
the perfect vehicle for use, it's going to have very little value to you
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perfektno vozilo za upotrebu, za vas će ono imati veoma malu vrednost
05:06
unless you've got a system to use it in.
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osim ako dobijete i sistem u kome ćete ga koristiti.
05:08
I'm sure any of you have asked the question,
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Siguran sam da je svako od vas postavio pitanje,
05:10
yeah, are there great things up there -- what am I going to do, get up there?
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da, jesu li tamo gore sjajne stvari -- šta da radim, da se popnem?
05:12
It's bad enough on a highway, what's it going to be like to be in the air?
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Dovoljno je loše na auto-putu, kako će izgledati kad budem u vazduhu?
05:15
This world that you're going to be talking about tomorrow
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Taj svet o kome ćete sutra govoriti
05:18
is going to be completely integrated. You're not going to be a pilot,
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će biti u potpunosti integrisan. Vi nećete biti pilot,
05:20
you're going to be a passenger.
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bićete putnik.
05:22
And it's the infrastructure that really determines whether this process goes forward.
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Infrastruktura je ta koja zapravo određuje da li ovaj proces napreduje.
05:25
I can tell you, technically we can build Skycars --
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Mogu vam reći, tehnički, možemo konstruisati leteće automobile
05:27
my God, we went to the moon!
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moj bože, otišli smo na mesec!
05:29
The technology there was much more difficult than what I'm dealing with here.
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Ta tehnologija je mnogo komplikovanija od one sa kojom ja ovde radim.
05:32
But we have to have these priority changes,
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Ali moramo promeniti prioritete,
05:34
we have to have infrastructure to go with this.
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moramo imati infrastrukturu koja ide uz to.
05:36
Historically you see that we got around
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Istorijski, videćete da smo se pre
05:38
200 years ago by canals,
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200 godina kretali kanalima,
05:40
and as that system disappeared, were replaced by railroads.
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a kada je taj sistem nestao, zamenili smo ga železnicom.
05:43
As that disappeared we came in with highways.
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Kada je to nestalo nastupili smo sa auto-putevima.
05:45
But if you look at that top corner -- the highway system --
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Ali ako obratite pažnju -- na sistem auto-puteva --
05:48
you see where we are today. Highways are no longer being built,
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videćete gde smo danas. Auto-putevi se više ne grade,
05:52
and that's a fact. You won't see any additional highways
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i to je činjenica. Nećete videti nikakve dodatne auto-puteve
05:55
in the next 10 years.
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u sledećih 10 godina.
05:57
However, the next 10 years, if like the last 10 years,
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Međutim, u sledećih 10 godina, kao i zadnjih 10 godina,
05:59
we're going to see 30 percent more traffic.
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imaćemo 30 procenata više saobraćaja.
06:02
And where is that going to lead you to?
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I gde će vas ovo dovesti?
06:04
So the issue then, I've often asked, is
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Tako da ptanje, koje ja stalno postavljam, je
06:06
when is it going to happen?
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kada će se to desiti?
06:09
When are we going to be able to have these vehicles?
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Kada ćemo moći da imamo ovakva vozila?
06:12
And of course, if you ask me, I'm going to give you a really optimistic view.
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Naravno, ako mene pitate, daću vam prilično optimističan pogled.
06:15
After all, I've been spending 60 years here believing it's going to happen tomorrow.
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Pored svega, ja sam proveo 60 godina verujući da će se to desiti sutra.
06:18
So, I'm not going to quote myself on this.
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Neću sam sebe citirati ovde.
06:21
I'd prefer to quote someone else,
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Više volim da citiram nekog drugog,
06:23
who testified with me before Congress,
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ko je svedočio sa mnom pred Kongresom,
06:25
and in his position as head of NASA
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i kao šef NASA-e
06:29
put forward this particular vision
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pogurao ovu viziju
06:31
of the future of this type of aircraft.
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budućnosti ovog tipa letelice.
06:35
Now I would argue, actually, if you look at the fact that on the highways today,
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Možemo raspraviti, ali ako pogledate činjenicu da se danas
06:38
you're only averaging about 30 miles per hour --
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na auto-putevima krećete u proseku 48 km/h --
06:41
on average, according to the DOT --
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prema Ministarstvu transporta --
06:44
the Skycar travels at over 300 miles an hour,
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leteći automobil se kreće preko 480 km/h,
06:46
up to 25,000 feet.
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sve do 7600 metara visine.
06:49
And so, in effect, you could see perhaps a tenfold increase
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I tako, mogli biste možda videti desetostruko povećanje
06:51
in the ability to get around
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u sposobnosti kretanja
06:54
as far as speed is concerned.
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što se tiče brzine.
07:01
Unbeknownst to many of you,
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Bez znanja mnogih od vas,
07:04
the highway in the sky that I'm talking about here
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auto-put na nebu, o kome ovde govorim
07:06
has been under construction for 10 years.
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je pod izgradnjom 10 godina.
07:09
It makes use of the GPS -- you're familiar with GPS in your automobile,
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To omogućava korišćenje GPS-a -- upoznati ste sa GPS-om u vašim automobilima,
07:12
but you may not be familiar with the fact that there's a GPS U.S.,
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ali možda niste upoznati sa činjenicom da postoji američki GPS,
07:15
there's a Russian GPS,
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postoji ruski GPS,
07:17
and there's a new GPS system
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i postoji novi GPS sistem
07:19
going to Europe, called Galileo.
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iz Evrope koji se zove Galileo.
07:21
With those three systems,
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Sa ova tri sistema
07:23
you have what is always necessary --
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imate ono što je stalno neophodno --
07:25
a level of redundancy that says,
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nivo preopširnosti koji kaže,
07:27
if one system fails, you'll still have a way
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da ako jedan sistem otkaže, i dalje imate način
07:29
to make sure that you're being controlled.
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da budete sigurni da će vas kontrolisati.
07:31
Because if you're in this world, where computers are controlling what you're doing,
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Jer ako se nalazite u svetu gde računari kontrolišu ono što radite,
07:34
it's going to be very critical that something can't fail on you.
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biće veoma važno da vas nešto ne izneveri.
07:39
How would a trip in a Skycar work?
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Kako bi putovanje u letećem automobilu funkcionisalo?
07:41
Well, you can't right now
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Pa, ne možete baš sad
07:43
take off from your home because it's too noisy.
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uzleteti ispred svoje kuće jer je prebučno.
07:46
I mean to be able to take off from your home, you'd have to be extremely quiet.
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Ako biste to želeli, trebalo bi da budete veoma tihi.
07:49
But it's still fairly quiet.
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Ali i dalje je to prilično tiho.
07:51
You'd motor, electrically, to a vertiport,
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Odvezli biste se, koristeći električni pogon, na vertidrom
07:55
which may be a few blocks, maybe even a few miles away.
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koji bi bio udaljen nekoliko blokova ili nekoliko kilometara.
07:57
This is clearly, as I said earlier, a roadable aircraft,
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Ovo je, kao što sam rekao ranije, putna letelica,
08:00
and you're not going to spend that much time on the road.
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pri čemu nećete potrošiti toliko vremena na putu.
08:02
After all, if you can fly like that,
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Nakon svega, ako možete leteti,
08:04
why are you going to drive around on a highway?
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zašto da se vozite unaokolo auto-putem?
08:06
Go to a local vertiport,
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Idite na lokalni vertidrom,
08:08
plug in your destination,
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unesite svoju destinaciju
08:11
delivered almost like a passenger.
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i stignite skoro kao običan putnik.
08:15
You can play computer games, you can sleep, you can read on the way.
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Možete igrati video igrice, možete spavati, možete čitati u putu.
08:19
This is the world -- there won't be you as a pilot. And I know the pilots in the audience aren't going to like that --
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Ovo je svet -- nećete vi obavljati ulogu pilota. Znam neke pilote u publici kojima se ovo neće dopasti --
08:22
and I've had a lot of bad feedback
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imao sam mnogo loših povratnih reakcija
08:24
from people who want to be up there, flying around
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od ljudi koji hoće da budu gore,
08:26
and experiencing that.
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da lete i doživljavaju to.
08:29
And of course, I suppose like recreational parks you can still do that.
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Naravno, pretpostavljam da ima rekreativnih parkova u kojima to i dalje možete.
08:32
But the vehicle itself is going to be a very, very controlled environment.
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Ali vozilo će samo po sebi biti veoma kontrolisano okruženje.
08:36
Or it's going to have no use to you as a person who might use such a system.
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U suprotnom vam neće biti od koristi, ako želite da koristite takav sistem.
08:40
We flew the first vehicle for the international press
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Vozili smo prvo vozilo za međunarodne novinare
08:43
in 1965, when I really got it started.
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1965., kada sam započeo zapravo sve to.
08:45
I was a professor at the U.C. Davis System,
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Bio sam profesor na Dejvisu, Univerziteta Kalifornije,
08:47
and I got a lot of excitement around this,
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i bio sam veoma uzbuđen povodom svega,
08:49
and I was able to fund the initiation of the program back in that time.
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tada sam bio u mogućnosti da finansiram početak programa.
08:53
And then through the various years
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Nakon niza različitih godina
08:55
we invented various vehicles.
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izumeli smo različita vozila.
08:57
Actually the critical point was in 1989,
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Zapravo kritična tačka je bila 1989.
09:00
when we demonstrated the stability of this vehicle --
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kada smo demonstrirali stabilnost ovog vozila --
09:02
how completely stable it was in all circumstances,
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koliko je zapravo bilo stabilno u svim okolnostima,
09:05
which is of course very critical.
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što je naravno bilo veoma važno.
09:07
Still not a practical vehicle during all of this,
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Ipak nakon svega nije bilo praktično vozilo,
09:10
but moving in the right direction, we believe.
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ali verujem da smo se kretali u pravom smeru.
09:14
Finally, in the early part of --
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Konačno, na početku --
09:17
or actually the middle of 2002,
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zapravo sredinom 2002. godine,
09:21
we flew the 400 -- M400, which was the four-passenger vehicle.
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leteli smo sa M 400, koje je bilo vozilo za četiri putnika.
09:25
In this case here, we're flying it remotely, as we always did at the beginning.
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U ovom slučaju, korišćeno je daljinsko upravljanje kao što smo u početku uvek radili.
09:29
And we had very small power plants in it at this time.
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I imali smo u njemu veoma male elektrane u to vreme.
09:32
We are now installing larger powerplants,
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Sada ugrađujemo veće elektrane,
09:34
which will make it possible for me to get back on board.
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koje će mi omogućiti da se ponovo ukrcam.
09:36
A vertical-takeoff aircraft
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Letelica sa vertikalnim uzletanjem
09:38
is not the safest vehicle during the test flight program.
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nije najbezbednije vozilo tokom programa testiranja.
09:42
There's an old adage that applied for the years
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Postoji stara izreka koja se primenjivala godinama
09:45
between 1950s and 1970s,
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između 1950. i 1970. godine,
09:48
when every aeronautical company
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kada je svaka aeronautička kompanija
09:50
was working on vertical-takeoff aircraft.
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radila na letelicama koje uzleću vertikalno.
09:54
A vertical-takeoff aircraft
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Letelica sa vertikalnim uzletanjem
09:56
needs an artificial stabilization system --
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ima potrebu za veštačkim sistemom stabilizacije --
09:58
that's essential.
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ovo je ključno.
10:00
At least for the hover,
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Barem za lebdenje,
10:02
and the low-speed flight.
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i let na niskim brzinama.
10:06
If that single-stability system,
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Ako taj sistem stabilnosti,
10:08
that brain that flies that aircraft, fails, or if the engine fails,
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taj mozak koji održava letelicu, zakaže ili motor zakaže,
10:12
that vehicle crashes. There is no option to that.
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to vozilo će se srušiti. Tu ne postoji druga opcija.
10:15
And the adage that I'm referring to,
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A izreka na koju sam se pozvao,
10:17
that applied at that time,
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a koja se primenjivala u to vreme,
10:19
was that nothing comes down faster
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kaže da ništa ne pada brže
10:21
than a VTOL aircraft upside down.
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od letelice sa vertikalnim uzletanjem.
10:23
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:25
That's a macabre comment because we lost a lot of pilots.
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To je grozan komentar jer smo izgubili mnogo pilota.
10:28
In fact, the aircraft companies gave up on
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Zapravo, kompanije su odustale
10:30
vertical-takeoff aircraft
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od letelica sa vertikalnim uzletanjem
10:32
more or less for a number of years.
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manje ili više za dugi niz godina.
10:34
And there's really only one operational aircraft in the world today
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Tako da danas postoji samo jedna operativna letelica na svetu
10:37
that's a vertical-takeoff aircraft -- as distinct from a helicopter --
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koja uzleće vertikalno -- za razliku od helikoptera --
10:39
and that's the Hawker Harrier jump jet.
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a to je lovački avion Hoker Harijer.
10:47
A vertical-takeoff aircraft,
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Letelica sa vertikalnim uzletanjem,
10:49
like the hummingbird,
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kao i kolibri,
10:51
has a very high metabolism,
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ima veoma brz metabolizam,
10:53
which means it requires a lot of energy.
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što znači da zahteva mnogo energije.
10:56
Getting that energy is very, very difficult. It all comes down
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Dobavljanje tolike količine energije je veoma teško. Sve se svodi
10:59
to that power plant -- how to get a large amount of power in a small package.
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na tu elektranu -- kako dopremiti veću količinu energije u malom pakovanju.
11:05
Fortunately, Dr. Felix Wankel
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Na sreću dr. Feliks Vankel
11:07
invented the rotary engine.
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izumeo je rotacioni motor.
11:10
A very unique engine -- it's round,
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Jedinstven motor -- okrugao je,
11:12
it's small, it's vibration-free.
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mali i bez vibracija.
11:15
It fits exactly where we need to fit it,
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Uklapa se tačno tamo gde je nama to potrebno,
11:17
right in the center of the hubs of the ducts in the system --
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u samom centru čvorišta kanala u sistemu --
11:20
very critical. In fact that engine --
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veoma važno. Zapravo taj motor --
11:22
for those who are into the automobile --
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za one koji se razumeju u automobile --
11:24
know that it recently is applied to the RX8 --
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znaju da je nedavno primenjen na RX 8 --
11:26
the Mazda.
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Mazdu.
11:28
And that sportscar won Sports Car of the Year.
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A taj automobil je proglašen za sportski automobil godine.
11:32
Wonderful engine.
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Predivan motor.
11:34
In that application, it generates one horsepower per pound,
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U ovoj primeni, daje jednu konjsku snagu na pola kilograma,
11:36
which is twice as good as your car engine today,
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što je dvostruko bolje od vaših motora danas,
11:39
but only half of what we need.
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ali samo pola od toga što je nama potrebno.
11:41
My company has spent 35 years
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Moja kompanija je provela 35 godina
11:44
and many millions of dollars taking that rotary engine,
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i potrošila više miliona dolara uzimajuću da je rotacioni motor,
11:47
which was invented in the late '50s, and getting it to the point that we get
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koji je izmišljen kasnih '50-ih, i dolazeći do tačke gde smo dobili
11:50
over two horsepower per pound, reliably, and critical.
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preko dve konjske snage na pola kilograma, pouzdano i važno.
11:53
We actually get 175 horsepower
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Zapravo smo ugurali 175 konjskih snaga
11:56
into one cubic foot.
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u zapreminu od 28 litara.
11:59
We have eight engines in this vehicle.
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Imamo osam motora u ovom vozilu.
12:01
We have four computers. We have two parachutes.
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Imamo četiri računara. Imamo dva padobrana.
12:05
Redundancy is the critical issue here.
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Preopširnost je ovde kritična tema.
12:07
If you want to stay alive you've got to have backups.
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Ako hoćete da ostanete živi morate imati rezervu.
12:09
And we have actually flown this vehicle and lost an engine,
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Mi smo leteli ovim vozilom i izgubili motor,
12:11
and continued to hover.
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nastavio je da lebdi.
12:13
The computers back up each other. There's a voting system --
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Računari se međusovno pokrivaju. Postoji sistem glasanja --
12:16
if one computer is not agreeing with the other three,
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ako se jedan računar ne slaže sa ostala tri,
12:20
it's kicked out of the system.
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biva izbačen iz sistema.
12:21
And then you have three -- you still have the triple redundancy.
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Tada imate tri -- još uvek imate trostruku redundansu.
12:24
If one of those fails, you still have a second chance.
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Ako jedan od njih zakaže i dalje imate drugu šansu.
12:27
If you stick around, then good luck.
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Ako se i dalje držite, onda srećno.
12:29
There won't be a third chance.
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Neće biti treće šanse.
12:33
The parachutes are there -- hopefully,
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Padobrani su -- nadam se,
12:35
more for psychological than real reasons, but
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više iz psihološkog nego realnog razloga, ali
12:38
they will be an ultimate backup if it comes to that.
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oni će biti krajnja rezerva ako do toga dođe.
12:41
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
12:44
I'd like to show you an animation in this next one,
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Hteo bih da vam prikažem animaciju,
12:46
which is one element
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koja predstavlja jedan element
12:48
of the Skycar's use,
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upotrebe letećeg automobila,
12:50
but it's one that demonstrates how it could be used.
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ali ova demonstrira kako bi se mogao koristiti.
12:52
You could think of it personally in your own terms,
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Možete o ovome razmišljati prema svojim nahođenjima,
12:54
of how you might use it.
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kako biste ga vi mogli koristiti.
12:56
Video: Skycar dispatched, launch rescue vehicle for San Francisco.
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Video: Leteći automobil otpremljen, poslati spasilačko vozilo u San Francisko.
13:28
Paul Moller: I believe that personal transportation
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Pol Moler: Verujem da će lični prevoz
13:30
in something like the Skycar,
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u nečemu kao što je leteći automobil,
13:32
probably in another volantor form as well,
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verovatno i u još jednom volantor obliku,
13:35
will be a significant part of our lives,
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biti značajan deo naših života,
13:38
as Dr. Goldin says, within the next 10 years.
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u sledećih 10 godina, kao što je rekao dr. Goldin.
13:41
And it's going to change the demographics in a very significant way.
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To će promeniti demografiju na veoma značajan način.
13:45
If you can live 75 miles from San Francisco and get there in 15 minutes,
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Ako možete živeti na 120 kilometara od San Franciska i stići tamo za 15 minuta,
13:49
you're going to sell your 700,000-dollar apartment,
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vi ćete prodati vaš stan od 700 hiljada dolara,
13:53
buy an upscale home on the side of a mountain,
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kupiti kuću u planinskom delu,
13:55
buy a Skycar,
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kupiti leteći automobil,
13:57
which I think would be priced at that time perhaps
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gde mislim da bi možda cena u to vreme,
13:59
in the area of 100,000 dollars, put money in the bank ...
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u toj oblasti bila 100 hiljada dolara, stavićete novac u banku...
14:02
that's a very significant incentive for getting out of San Francisco.
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ovo je veoma značajan podsticaj za odlazak iz San Franciska.
14:06
But you better be the first one out of town as the real estate values go to hell.
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Ali bolje vam je da budete prvi dok vrednost nekretnina odlazi do đavola.
14:09
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
14:14
Developing the Skycar has been a real challenge.
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Razvijanje letećeg automobila bio je pravi izazov.
14:17
Obviously I'm dependent on a lot of other people
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Očigledno sam zavisan od mnogo ljudi
14:19
believing in what I'm doing -- both financially and in technical help.
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koji veruju u to što radim -- kako finansijski tako i tehnički.
14:23
And that has --
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A to je --
14:25
you run into situations where you have this great acceptance of what you're doing,
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ulazite u situacije gde imate to sjajno prihvatanje onoga što radite,
14:29
and a lot of rejection of the same kind of thing.
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i mnogo odbijanja za istu stvar.
14:32
I characterized this emerging technology
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Okarakterisao sam ovu tehnologiju u nastajanju
14:36
in an aphorism,
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kroz aforizam,
14:38
as it's described,
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kao što je opisano,
14:41
which really talks about what I've experienced,
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i što zaista govori o onome što sam iskusio,
14:43
and I'm sure what other people may have experienced
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i onome što su, siguran sam i drugi možda iskusili
14:45
in emerging technologies.
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u nastajućim tehnologijama.
14:53
There's an interesting poll that came out recently
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Postoji zanimljivo istraživanje koje je nedavno izašlo
14:55
under NAS --
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pod Nacionalnom asocijacijom naučnika --
14:57
I think it's MSNBC --
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Mislim da je MSNBC (televizijska mreža) --
14:59
in which they asked the question,
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u kome su postavili pitanje,
15:01
"Are you in the market for a volantor?"
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"Da li ćete biti na tržištu za volantor"?
15:04
Twenty-three percent said, "Yes, as soon as possible."
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Dvadeset tri procenta odgovrilo je, "Da, što je pre moguće".
15:07
Forty-seven percent -- yes, as soon as they could -- price could come down.
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Četrdeset sedam procenta -- da, nakon što padnu cene.
15:10
Twenty-three percent said, "As soon as it's proven safe."
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dvadeset tri procenta je odgovorilo: "Čim se pokaže bezbednim".
15:13
Only seven percent said
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Samo sedam procenata je odgovorilo
15:15
that they wouldn't consider buying a Skycar.
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da ne bi razmatrali kupovinu letećeg automobila.
15:18
I'm encouraged by that. At least it makes me feel like,
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Ohrabren sam time. Bar se osećam,
15:22
to some extent, it is becoming self-evident.
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u neku ruku, kao da postaje očigledno.
15:25
That we need an alternative to the automobile,
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Da nam je potrebna alternativa automobilima,
15:27
at least for those 50-mile trips and more,
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bar za ona putovanja preko 80 kilometara,
15:29
so that the highways become usable in today's world.
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tako da auto-putevi u današnjem svetu postanu upotrebljivi.
15:32
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Moller - InventorWith a team of engineers, Paul Moller works on the Skycar, a combination car and jet, as well as the M200, a saucer-shaped hovering car. He also develops next-generation engines to power these and other amazing vehicles.
Why you should listen
Paul Moller is the president, CEO and chair of Moller International, a company devoted to engineering the combination of automobile and jet known as the Moller Skycar. His company also works on the M200, a low-flying disc, or volantor, that may go into production later in 2009. (As cool as it looks, the M200 has serious applications as a rescue vehicle.) A partner company, Freedom Motors, builds the Rotapower engine.
Moller developed the Aeronautical Engineering program at UC Davis while a professor there from 1963 to 1975. In 1972 he founded SuperTrapp Industries, and also led the group that developed the Davis Research Park Complex between 1975 and 1983. He's been working on VTOL (vertical takeoff and landing) personal vehicles since the late 1960s.
Paul Moller | Speaker | TED.com