TED2004
Paul Moller: My dream of a flying car
保羅．穆勒(Paul Moller) 發明飛天車
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Paul Moller 談論未來的個人空中運輸 - 結合汽車和飛行器來提供我們真正無道路化的自由旅程。他展示了兩件他進行中的項目：Moller 飛天車(噴射機+汽車)以及便利乘客使用的飛碟。
Paul Moller - Inventor
With a team of engineers, Paul Moller works on the Skycar, a combination car and jet, as well as the M200, a saucer-shaped hovering car. He also develops next-generation engines to power these and other amazing vehicles. Full bio
With a team of engineers, Paul Moller works on the Skycar, a combination car and jet, as well as the M200, a saucer-shaped hovering car. He also develops next-generation engines to power these and other amazing vehicles. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Many of you could ask the question, you know,
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你知道，許多人會問這個問題，
00:15
why is a flying car, or maybe more accurately,
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為什麼飛天車，或用更正確的講法，
00:18
a roadable aircraft, possible at this time?
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一個可以旋轉的飛行器，在現在是可行的？
00:22
A number of years ago,
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許多年以前，
00:24
Mr. Ford predicted that flying cars
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亨利．福特預測飛天車
00:26
of some form would be available.
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會以某種型態出現在世界上。
00:28
Now, 60 years later,
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而六十年後的今天，
00:30
I'm here to tell you why it's possible.
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我在這裡告訴你，為何它是可行的。
00:32
When I was about five years old,
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在我五歲的時候，
00:34
not very much -- about a year after
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時間差不多大概是
00:36
Mr. Ford made his predictions,
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福特發表他的預測之後一年，
00:38
I was living in a rural part of Canada,
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我當時住在加拿大的一個農村，
00:41
on the side of a mountain in a very isolated area.
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位在一個很偏僻的山腳下。
00:46
Getting to school, for a kid that was actually pretty short for his age,
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對一個在同年紀裡身材較矮小的小孩而言，
00:50
through the Canadian winter, was not a pleasant experience.
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在加拿大的冬天要去上學並不是件開心的經歷。
00:53
It was a trying and scary thing
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對那麼小的小孩而言
00:57
for a young kid to be going through.
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那是又難受又可怕的事情。
01:00
At the end of my first year in school, in the summer of that year,
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那年夏天，當我在學校的第一年結束時，
01:05
I discovered a couple hummingbirds
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我發現我家附近的一個倉庫裡，
01:08
that were caught in a shed near my home.
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發現了幾隻被困住的蜂鳥。
01:10
They'd worn themselves out,
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它們不停地衝撞著玻璃，
01:12
beating themselves against the window,
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並把體力都消耗掉了，
01:14
and, well, they were easy to capture.
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所以我很容易就抓住它們了。
01:16
I took them outside and as I let them go, that split second, even though they were very tired,
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當我把它們帶到外面要放它們走的瞬間，它們會先在空中盤旋一下，
01:20
that second I let them go they hovered for a second,
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即使它們已經很累了，
01:22
then zipped off into the distance.
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然後一瞬間就飛到很遠的地方了。
01:24
I thought, what a great way to get to school.
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我心想，這可真是上學的好方法。
01:26
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:29
For a kid at that age, this was like infinite speed, disappearing,
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對這年紀的小孩來說，這種消失的速度真是不可思議的快啊，
01:33
and I was very inspired by that.
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給我有相當大的激勵。
01:35
And so the next -- over the next
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於是在六十年之後，
01:37
six decades, believe it or not,
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信不信由你，
01:39
I've built a number of aircraft,
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我為了要製造出能夠像蜂鳥飛行的東西，
01:42
with the goal of creating something that could do for you, or me,
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讓它搭載著人們，
01:46
what the hummingbird does,
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給予人們更多的彈性，
01:48
and give you that flexibility.
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而製造了許多的飛行器。
01:51
I've called this vehicle, generically, a volantor,
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我把這部汽車，一般稱為直昇機，取名為 Volantor(飛行者)，
01:55
after the Latin word "volant," meaning,
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源自於拉丁文中 "volant(飛行)" 這個字的意義，
01:57
to fly in a light, nimble manner.
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以期能夠輕盈、靈巧的飛行。
02:00
Volantor-like helicopter, perhaps.
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也許算是一種直昇機型態的飛行器。
02:02
The FAA, the controlling body above all,
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聯邦航空總署(FAA)，那個管控在天上飛行的機構，
02:05
calls it a "powered lift aircraft."
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稱它為 "動力升降飛行器"。
02:08
And they've actually issued a pilot's license --
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並且他們特別為了這台飛行器
02:11
a powerlift pilot's license -- for this type of aircraft.
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而核發了一張飛行執照 - 一種動力升降機的飛行執照。
02:15
It's closer than you think. It's kind of remarkable when you consider that
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如你所想的，這相當的引人注目，
02:18
there are no operational powered lift aircraft.
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在這個沒有人相信有動力升降飛行器的年代。
02:21
So for once, perhaps, the government is ahead of itself.
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也許是頭一次，政府進度超前了。
02:25
The press calls my particular volantor a "Skycar."
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記者把我這獨特飛行器取名為"Skycar(飛天車)"。
02:30
This is a little bit earlier version of it,
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這是一台比較早期的版本，
02:33
that's why it's given the X designation,
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所以被稱為 X。
02:35
but it's a four-passenger aircraft
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但它是台可以當載四人的飛行器 -
02:37
that could take off vertically, like a helicopter --
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可以垂直升降，就像直昇機一樣，
02:39
therefore it doesn't need an airfield.
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因此它不需要跑道。
02:41
On the ground, it's powered electrically.
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在地上的時候，它是靠電力在運作。
02:45
It's actually classified as a motorcycle
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事實上它被歸類於摩托車，
02:48
because of the three wheels, which is a great asset
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因為它有三個輪子，這可是很有用的，
02:50
because it allows you, theoretically, to use this on the highways
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因為理論上它可以讓你在許多州的高速公路上奔馳，
02:52
in most states, and actually in all cities.
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事實上在所有的城市都可以。
02:55
So that's an asset because if you've got to deal with the crash protection issues
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它的另一項好處是，如果你連開車都會遇到車禍的話，
02:58
of the automobile, forget it -- you're never going to fly it.
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那別作夢吧，你不可能開著它飛的。
03:02
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
03:07
One could say that a helicopter
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你可以說直昇機的飛行方式，
03:09
does pretty much what the hummingbird does,
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很類似蜂鳥的行為模式，
03:12
and gets around in much the same way, and it's true,
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移動方式幾乎是一樣的，這並沒有錯，
03:14
but a helicopter is a very complex device.
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但是直昇機的結構很複雜。
03:18
It's expensive --
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而且它很貴，
03:20
so expensive that very few people could own or use it.
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只有極少數人負擔得起。
03:24
It's often been described because of its fragile nature and its complexity,
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由於它天性很脆弱，以及過於複雜，
03:28
as a series of parts -- a large number of parts --
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常被人形容它像是一組零件 - 一大群零件 -
03:30
flying in formation.
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在空中排列出隊形飛行著。
03:32
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
03:37
Another difference, and I have to describe this,
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另一個差異在於，我必須說明一下，
03:39
because it's very personal,
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因為它非常個人化，
03:41
another great difference between the helicopter
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直昇機與飛行者之間
03:43
and the volantor --
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有著另一項巨大差異 -
03:45
in my case the Skycar volantor --
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對我來說，飛天車-飛行者，
03:47
is the experience that I've had
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以我搭乘過這兩種(直昇機、飛天車)
03:49
in flying both of those.
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的經歷而言。
03:51
In a helicopter you feel -- and it's still a remarkable sensation --
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在直昇機上你會有一種很特殊的感覺，
03:54
you feel like you're being hauled up from above
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你覺得好像是被大型吊車
03:57
by a vibrating crane.
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從上面拉起來的感覺。
03:59
When you get in the Skycar -- and I can tell you,
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當你乘坐飛天車時，我可以告訴你，
04:01
there's only one other person that's flown it, but he had the same sensation --
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還有另一個人也乘坐過它飛行，但他也有和我一樣的感覺 -
04:04
you really feel like you're being lifted up
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你覺得你好像是被一張神奇魔毯
04:06
by a magic carpet,
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從下面將你舉起來一般，
04:09
without any vibration whatsoever. The sensation is unbelievable.
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而不是靠任何動力機具。那是一種不可思議的感覺。
04:12
And it's been a great motivator.
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對我來說這是一種很大的動力。
04:14
I only get to fly this vehicle occasionally,
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只有在我能說服的股東們
04:17
and only when I can persuade my stockholders
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讓我去開這台車的時候，
04:19
to let me do so,
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我才能偶爾去駕駛它飛行。
04:21
but it's still one of those wonderful experiences
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但在那段時間裡，這件事仍然是
04:24
that reward you for all that time.
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能夠鼓舞你的美好經驗之一.
04:30
What we really need is something to replace the automobile
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我們真正需要的，是能夠取代汽車
04:33
for those 50-plus mile trips.
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進行超過五十英哩旅程的東西。
04:36
Very few people realize that 50 mile-plus trips
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很少人知道這些超過五十英哩的旅程
04:38
make up 85 percent of the miles traveled in America.
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佔美國所有旅程中的百分之八十五。
04:41
If we can get rid of that,
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如果我們能夠將這部分移除，
04:43
then the highways will now be useful to you,
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那麼高速公路就會變得很有效率，
04:46
as contrasted by what's happening
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就不會像現在世界各地
04:48
in many parts of the world today.
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到處都有交通壅塞問題。
04:52
On this next slide, is an interesting history
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接下來這張是在說
04:56
of what we really have seen in infrastructure,
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我們對於一些必要設施的計畫，
05:00
because whether I give you a perfect Skycar,
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因為即使我給你一台完美的飛天車，
05:03
the perfect vehicle for use, it's going to have very little value to you
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一台完美的車子讓你使用， 對你幫助並不大
05:06
unless you've got a system to use it in.
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除非你有完整的系統來使用它。
05:08
I'm sure any of you have asked the question,
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我相信會有人問，
05:10
yeah, are there great things up there -- what am I going to do, get up there?
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是啊，會有什麼很棒的東西嗎？我能得到什麼呢？
05:12
It's bad enough on a highway, what's it going to be like to be in the air?
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高速公路就已經夠糟了，上了天空更是難以想像吧？
05:15
This world that you're going to be talking about tomorrow
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你所討論的未來
05:18
is going to be completely integrated. You're not going to be a pilot,
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將會有整合好的系統。你不用擔任駕駛，
05:20
you're going to be a passenger.
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你只要當乘客就好了。
05:22
And it's the infrastructure that really determines whether this process goes forward.
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這個設施將會決定這整個計畫是否能夠施行。
05:25
I can tell you, technically we can build Skycars --
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我可以告訴你，我們有技術去製造飛天車 -
05:27
my God, we went to the moon!
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老天，我們都已經登上月球了！
05:29
The technology there was much more difficult than what I'm dealing with here.
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上月球需要的技術可比製造飛天車難多了。
05:32
But we have to have these priority changes,
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但是我們需要先有一些改變，
05:34
we have to have infrastructure to go with this.
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我們需要一些設施來配合整個計畫。
05:36
Historically you see that we got around
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在歷史紀錄上
05:38
200 years ago by canals,
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你知道運河人們被使用了兩百多年，
05:40
and as that system disappeared, were replaced by railroads.
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隨之，我們使用鐵路來取代運河。
05:43
As that disappeared we came in with highways.
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接下來我們用高速公路取代一般鐵路。
05:45
But if you look at that top corner -- the highway system --
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但你看看上面角落這裡 - 高速公路系統 -
05:48
you see where we are today. Highways are no longer being built,
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你知道現況是什麼。我們不再繼續蓋高速公路了，
05:52
and that's a fact. You won't see any additional highways
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這就是事實。未來十年內，
05:55
in the next 10 years.
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你不會看見任何新的高速公路。
05:57
However, the next 10 years, if like the last 10 years,
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但在未來的十年，如果和過去十年一樣的話，
05:59
we're going to see 30 percent more traffic.
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我們會再增加百分之三十的交通量。
06:02
And where is that going to lead you to?
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這會導致我們使用什麼呢？
06:04
So the issue then, I've often asked, is
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所以我常常問我自己，
06:06
when is it going to happen?
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什麼時候才會有改變？
06:09
When are we going to be able to have these vehicles?
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我們何時才能有這些飛天車呢？
06:12
And of course, if you ask me, I'm going to give you a really optimistic view.
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當然，如果你問我，我會給你很樂觀的看法。
06:15
After all, I've been spending 60 years here believing it's going to happen tomorrow.
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畢竟我已經花了六十年，相信它未來一定會成真。
06:18
So, I'm not going to quote myself on this.
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所以我不自己來說這些。
06:21
I'd prefer to quote someone else,
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我比較想引用別人的話來說明，
06:23
who testified with me before Congress,
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他和我一起證實了飛天車的存在給國會議員看，
06:25
and in his position as head of NASA
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當時他正擔任太空總署(NASA)的首長，
06:29
put forward this particular vision
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曾經對於這台飛天車的未來
06:31
of the future of this type of aircraft.
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提出過這個特別的看法。
06:35
Now I would argue, actually, if you look at the fact that on the highways today,
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這邊我要修正一下，事實上，如果你看現在的高速公路，
06:38
you're only averaging about 30 miles per hour --
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依據交通部的資料，
06:41
on average, according to the DOT --
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每小時的平均速度大概只有30英哩，
06:44
the Skycar travels at over 300 miles an hour,
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飛天車的速度每小時可以超過300英哩，
06:46
up to 25,000 feet.
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而且是在兩萬五千英呎的空中。
06:49
And so, in effect, you could see perhaps a tenfold increase
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所以在實際效果上，你會發現
06:51
in the ability to get around
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當考慮到速度時，
06:54
as far as speed is concerned.
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增加的幅度將近十倍。
07:01
Unbeknownst to many of you,
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大部分的人都不知道，
07:04
the highway in the sky that I'm talking about here
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我現在所提的空中交通這件事，
07:06
has been under construction for 10 years.
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已經建構了約十年。
07:09
It makes use of the GPS -- you're familiar with GPS in your automobile,
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它使用了GPS - 就是在你車上那個你熟悉的 GPS，
07:12
but you may not be familiar with the fact that there's a GPS U.S.,
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但你可能不知道 GPS 還有分美國的 GPS，
07:15
there's a Russian GPS,
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俄國的 GPS，
07:17
and there's a new GPS system
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還有一個新的
07:19
going to Europe, called Galileo.
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在歐洲使用的 GPS 系統叫做 Galileo(伽利略)。
07:21
With those three systems,
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藉由這三套系統，
07:23
you have what is always necessary --
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你就有了某種程度上
07:25
a level of redundancy that says,
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所必要的備用系統﹔
07:27
if one system fails, you'll still have a way
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當某個系統失去作用時，你還能夠確認
07:29
to make sure that you're being controlled.
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一切都在掌握之中。
07:31
Because if you're in this world, where computers are controlling what you're doing,
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因為你生活在這個依靠電腦控制一切的世界中，
07:34
it's going to be very critical that something can't fail on you.
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想要不遇到電腦當機實在是很困難的事啊。
07:39
How would a trip in a Skycar work?
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要如何利用飛天車完成一趟旅程呢？
07:41
Well, you can't right now
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嗯，你現在不可能直接從你家起飛，
07:43
take off from your home because it's too noisy.
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因為實在太吵了。
07:46
I mean to be able to take off from your home, you'd have to be extremely quiet.
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如果要從你家起飛的話，那必須要非常安靜才行。
07:49
But it's still fairly quiet.
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不過它已經算是很安靜了。
07:51
You'd motor, electrically, to a vertiport,
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你可以先駕駛到一個飛天車起降場，
07:55
which may be a few blocks, maybe even a few miles away.
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也許是幾個路口遠，或甚至幾英哩遠。
07:57
This is clearly, as I said earlier, a roadable aircraft,
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如我先前所說，當你搭乘飛天車時，
08:00
and you're not going to spend that much time on the road.
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你不需要花太多時間在道路上。
08:02
After all, if you can fly like that,
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畢竟，如果你可以讓它飛，
08:04
why are you going to drive around on a highway?
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你又何必在高速公路上跑？
08:06
Go to a local vertiport,
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到了當地的飛天車起降場後，
08:08
plug in your destination,
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輸入你的目的地，
08:11
delivered almost like a passenger.
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然後就當一個乘客被送到目的地。
08:15
You can play computer games, you can sleep, you can read on the way.
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在路上你可以玩電動玩具、可以睡覺也可以看書。
08:19
This is the world -- there won't be you as a pilot. And I know the pilots in the audience aren't going to like that --
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在這構想中，飛行員是過去式了。我知道聽眾裡的飛行員可能會不高興，
08:22
and I've had a lot of bad feedback
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我也收到許多想要在天空中飛行
08:24
from people who want to be up there, flying around
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感受遨遊天際的人們
08:26
and experiencing that.
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給我的不好回應。
08:29
And of course, I suppose like recreational parks you can still do that.
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當然，我想你還是可以在遊樂場中開飛天車。
08:32
But the vehicle itself is going to be a very, very controlled environment.
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不過這台車的控制介面將會有所限制。
08:36
Or it's going to have no use to you as a person who might use such a system.
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否則對於想用這系統的人而言，它可能會變成毫無用處。
08:40
We flew the first vehicle for the international press
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在1965年，我剛開始這一切時，
08:43
in 1965, when I really got it started.
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我們曾經飛行第一架飛天車給國際記者看過。
08:45
I was a professor at the U.C. Davis System,
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我當時是UC Davis系統公司的教授，
08:47
and I got a lot of excitement around this,
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對於這個我是相當興奮的，
08:49
and I was able to fund the initiation of the program back in that time.
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而那時我因此替這個計畫募集到足夠的款項。
08:53
And then through the various years
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過了幾年之後，
08:55
we invented various vehicles.
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我們發明了各種飛天車。
08:57
Actually the critical point was in 1989,
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事實上關鍵點在1989年，
09:00
when we demonstrated the stability of this vehicle --
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當時我們展示這台飛天車的的穩定性 -
09:02
how completely stable it was in all circumstances,
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它不論是任何狀況下都很穩定，
09:05
which is of course very critical.
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這是相當重要的。
09:07
Still not a practical vehicle during all of this,
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那時我們還沒研發出真正可以投入應用的車型，
09:10
but moving in the right direction, we believe.
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不過我們相信我們的方向是對的。
09:14
Finally, in the early part of --
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終於，在最近幾年 -
09:17
or actually the middle of 2002,
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正確來說是 2002 年中期，
09:21
we flew the 400 -- M400, which was the four-passenger vehicle.
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我們讓 M400 飛了起來，這是一台四人座的飛天車。
09:25
In this case here, we're flying it remotely, as we always did at the beginning.
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我們使用遙控的方式駕駛它，如同我們一開始所做的一樣。
09:29
And we had very small power plants in it at this time.
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這次我們使用了很小的發電機。
09:32
We are now installing larger powerplants,
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我們現在改裝幾個較大的發電機，
09:34
which will make it possible for me to get back on board.
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這樣才能讓我重新坐到車上。
09:36
A vertical-takeoff aircraft
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這種垂直起降的飛行器
09:38
is not the safest vehicle during the test flight program.
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在試飛期間並不是一個最安全的飛天車。
09:42
There's an old adage that applied for the years
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在 1950 到 1970 年這段期間，
09:45
between 1950s and 1970s,
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許多製造飛機的公司
09:48
when every aeronautical company
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都在努力發展垂直起降飛行器，
09:50
was working on vertical-takeoff aircraft.
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當時有一句格言。
09:54
A vertical-takeoff aircraft
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一台垂直身降的飛行器
09:56
needs an artificial stabilization system --
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需要一個人造的平衡系統 -
09:58
that's essential.
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這是絕對必要的。
10:00
At least for the hover,
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至少對於盤旋
10:02
and the low-speed flight.
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和低速飛行是如此。
10:06
If that single-stability system,
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如果那唯一的平衡系統
10:08
that brain that flies that aircraft, fails, or if the engine fails,
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駕駛飛天車的大腦當機了，或是引擎故障了，
10:12
that vehicle crashes. There is no option to that.
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這台飛天車就會墜毀。沒有其他選擇。
10:15
And the adage that I'm referring to,
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我剛提到的格言,
10:17
that applied at that time,
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就是用在這種時候，
10:19
was that nothing comes down faster
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是說沒有東西下降的速度
10:21
than a VTOL aircraft upside down.
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可以比得上飛天車倒栽蔥的時候還快。
10:23
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
10:25
That's a macabre comment because we lost a lot of pilots.
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這是個可怕的說法，因為我們已經失去了許多的飛行員。
10:28
In fact, the aircraft companies gave up on
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事實上這幾年來，
10:30
vertical-takeoff aircraft
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有許多製造飛機的公司，
10:32
more or less for a number of years.
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放棄製造垂直升降的飛行器。
10:34
And there's really only one operational aircraft in the world today
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現今世界上只有唯一一架算得上實用的飛行器，
10:37
that's a vertical-takeoff aircraft -- as distinct from a helicopter --
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這是台垂直升降的飛行器 - 不同於直昇機 -
10:39
and that's the Hawker Harrier jump jet.
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那就是鷹式戰鬥噴射機。
10:47
A vertical-takeoff aircraft,
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一架垂直升降飛行器，
10:49
like the hummingbird,
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就像蜂鳥一樣，
10:51
has a very high metabolism,
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有著快速的新陳代謝系統，
10:53
which means it requires a lot of energy.
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意思是說它會消耗大量能量。
10:56
Getting that energy is very, very difficult. It all comes down
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要得到這種能量很不容易。問題在於那顆發電機
10:59
to that power plant -- how to get a large amount of power in a small package.
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- 要怎麼用較小的尺寸獲得較大的能量。
11:05
Fortunately, Dr. Felix Wankel
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幸好，Felix Wankel 博士
11:07
invented the rotary engine.
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發明了轉子引擎。
11:10
A very unique engine -- it's round,
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一種很獨特的引擎 - 它是圓的，
11:12
it's small, it's vibration-free.
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它很小，幾乎不太會震動。
11:15
It fits exactly where we need to fit it,
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剛好符合我們所需的尺寸，
11:17
right in the center of the hubs of the ducts in the system --
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可以裝置在系統的正中心 -
11:20
very critical. In fact that engine --
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很不容易做到。事實上這顆引擎 -
11:22
for those who are into the automobile --
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對於汽車愛好者來說
11:24
know that it recently is applied to the RX8 --
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應該很熟悉，它就是
11:26
the Mazda.
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馬自達 RX-8 所使用的引擎。
11:28
And that sportscar won Sports Car of the Year.
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那台跑車贏得了當年的車賽。
11:32
Wonderful engine.
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那是很棒的引擎。
11:34
In that application, it generates one horsepower per pound,
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使用時，每磅可以產生一匹馬力，
11:36
which is twice as good as your car engine today,
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已經比現在的車子好上兩倍，
11:39
but only half of what we need.
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但只有我們需要的一半。
11:41
My company has spent 35 years
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我們公司花了35年
11:44
and many millions of dollars taking that rotary engine,
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以及幾百萬美金去改良這個轉子引擎，
11:47
which was invented in the late '50s, and getting it to the point that we get
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事實上它早在50年代末期就出現了,
11:50
over two horsepower per pound, reliably, and critical.
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最後終於能穩定的達到每磅兩匹馬力以上。
11:53
We actually get 175 horsepower
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事實上我們只用一立方英呎的空間
11:56
into one cubic foot.
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就可以得到175匹馬力。
11:59
We have eight engines in this vehicle.
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我們在這台飛天車上裝了八顆引擎。
12:01
We have four computers. We have two parachutes.
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我們有四部電腦還有兩具降落傘。
12:05
Redundancy is the critical issue here.
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備用系統在這兒是很重要的。
12:07
If you want to stay alive you've got to have backups.
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如果你想活下去，你就要準備一些備用品。
12:09
And we have actually flown this vehicle and lost an engine,
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我們過去試飛這台飛天車時，確實曾發生過一具引擎故障，
12:11
and continued to hover.
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而且還能維持盤旋狀態。
12:13
The computers back up each other. There's a voting system --
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這些電腦互為備用系統。這兒有個投票系統 --
12:16
if one computer is not agreeing with the other three,
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如果某台電腦的判斷被另外三台否決，
12:20
it's kicked out of the system.
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它就會被踢出這個系統。
12:21
And then you have three -- you still have the triple redundancy.
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於是你剩下三台電腦 -- 你還有三個備用系統。
12:24
If one of those fails, you still have a second chance.
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如果這三台其中一台故障，你還有第二個逃生的機會。
12:27
If you stick around, then good luck.
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如果你還不回航，那就多保重了。
12:29
There won't be a third chance.
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不會有第三次機會的。
12:33
The parachutes are there -- hopefully,
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上面還有降落傘，
12:35
more for psychological than real reasons, but
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希望只是求心安而不是真的會用到，
12:38
they will be an ultimate backup if it comes to that.
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真的需要時，它們就是最好的備用品了。
12:41
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
12:44
I'd like to show you an animation in this next one,
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接下來我要給你們看一段動畫，
12:46
which is one element
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它是關於，
12:48
of the Skycar's use,
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飛天車的使用原理，
12:50
but it's one that demonstrates how it could be used.
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並示範我們可以怎麼去運用它。
12:52
You could think of it personally in your own terms,
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你可以用自己的角度去思考，
12:54
of how you might use it.
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你會怎麼去使用它。
12:56
Video: Skycar dispatched, launch rescue vehicle for San Francisco.
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飛天車出發了，前往舊金山進行拯救任務。
13:28
Paul Moller: I believe that personal transportation
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我相信如同 Goldin 博士所說，
13:30
in something like the Skycar,
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在未來十年內，
13:32
probably in another volantor form as well,
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類似於飛天車的個人交通工具
13:35
will be a significant part of our lives,
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或其他型態的飛行器，
13:38
as Dr. Goldin says, within the next 10 years.
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將會成為人們生活中重要的一部份。
13:41
And it's going to change the demographics in a very significant way.
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這將會明顯的改變人們的居住型態。
13:45
If you can live 75 miles from San Francisco and get there in 15 minutes,
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如果你能住在離舊金山75英哩但只需要15分鐘的交通時間，
13:49
you're going to sell your 700,000-dollar apartment,
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那你就可以賣掉價值七十萬美金的公寓，
13:53
buy an upscale home on the side of a mountain,
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然後在山邊買一棟更高檔的房子，
13:55
buy a Skycar,
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再買一部飛天車，
13:57
which I think would be priced at that time perhaps
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我想那時後飛天車的價格大概
13:59
in the area of 100,000 dollars, put money in the bank ...
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只要十萬美金左右，剩下的錢可以存進銀行 ...
14:02
that's a very significant incentive for getting out of San Francisco.
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讓你把錢存下來是購買的一大誘因 ...
14:06
But you better be the first one out of town as the real estate values go to hell.
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但你最好是第一個搬離都市的，因為房地產價格會暴跌。
14:09
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
14:14
Developing the Skycar has been a real challenge.
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開發飛天車是一項很大的挑戰。
14:17
Obviously I'm dependent on a lot of other people
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很明顯的，我仰賴很多相信我的人們
14:19
believing in what I'm doing -- both financially and in technical help.
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提供給我金錢上與技術上的幫助。
14:23
And that has --
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畢竟對於同一件事情，
14:25
you run into situations where you have this great acceptance of what you're doing,
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你可能會遇到接受度很高的人，
14:29
and a lot of rejection of the same kind of thing.
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也可能遇到完全不認同的人。
14:32
I characterized this emerging technology
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我用一句格言來描述
14:36
in an aphorism,
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這項嶄新的技術，
14:38
as it's described,
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而這格言描述的是
14:41
which really talks about what I've experienced,
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我所經歷過的一切，
14:43
and I'm sure what other people may have experienced
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以及我相信其他人對於嶄新的技術
14:45
in emerging technologies.
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也會有的經驗。
14:53
There's an interesting poll that came out recently
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最近有個有趣的投票
14:55
under NAS --
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在 NAS --
14:57
I think it's MSNBC --
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應該是 MSNBC 上 --
14:59
in which they asked the question,
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他們問了這個問題，
15:01
"Are you in the market for a volantor?"
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"你會想買飛天車嗎？"
15:04
Twenty-three percent said, "Yes, as soon as possible."
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23% 的人說，「會，我想趕快入手。」
15:07
Forty-seven percent -- yes, as soon as they could -- price could come down.
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47% 的人說，「會，只要價格不要太高我就買。」
15:10
Twenty-three percent said, "As soon as it's proven safe."
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23% 的人說，「只要能證明它是安全的我就買。」
15:13
Only seven percent said
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只有 7% 的人說
15:15
that they wouldn't consider buying a Skycar.
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他們不會想買飛天車。
15:18
I'm encouraged by that. At least it makes me feel like,
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這個結果給予我很大的鼓勵。至少讓我覺得，
15:22
to some extent, it is becoming self-evident.
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某個角度來看，它可以證明
15:25
That we need an alternative to the automobile,
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我們需要汽車的替代品
15:27
at least for those 50-mile trips and more,
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至少是對於超過 50英哩的旅程，
15:29
so that the highways become usable in today's world.
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這樣高速公路才會變得有效率。
15:32
Thank you.
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謝謝大家。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Moller - InventorWith a team of engineers, Paul Moller works on the Skycar, a combination car and jet, as well as the M200, a saucer-shaped hovering car. He also develops next-generation engines to power these and other amazing vehicles.
Why you should listen
Paul Moller is the president, CEO and chair of Moller International, a company devoted to engineering the combination of automobile and jet known as the Moller Skycar. His company also works on the M200, a low-flying disc, or volantor, that may go into production later in 2009. (As cool as it looks, the M200 has serious applications as a rescue vehicle.) A partner company, Freedom Motors, builds the Rotapower engine.
Moller developed the Aeronautical Engineering program at UC Davis while a professor there from 1963 to 1975. In 1972 he founded SuperTrapp Industries, and also led the group that developed the Davis Research Park Complex between 1975 and 1983. He's been working on VTOL (vertical takeoff and landing) personal vehicles since the late 1960s.
Paul Moller | Speaker | TED.com