TED2004
Paul Moller: My dream of a flying car
飞天车
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Paul Moller 介绍了未来的私人空中交通工具：飞天车——汽车和飞机的融合——带给我们真正的交通自由。他介绍了两种他发明的飞天车：穆勒飞天车（喷气式飞机+ 汽车）和盘旋飞碟。
Paul Moller - Inventor
With a team of engineers, Paul Moller works on the Skycar, a combination car and jet, as well as the M200, a saucer-shaped hovering car. He also develops next-generation engines to power these and other amazing vehicles. Full bio
With a team of engineers, Paul Moller works on the Skycar, a combination car and jet, as well as the M200, a saucer-shaped hovering car. He also develops next-generation engines to power these and other amazing vehicles. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Many of you could ask the question, you know,
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很多人会问：
00:15
why is a flying car, or maybe more accurately,
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为什么会飞的汽车，或者更准确地讲，
00:18
a roadable aircraft, possible at this time?
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一种可旋转的飞行器，能在当今成为可能？
00:22
A number of years ago,
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许多年前，
00:24
Mr. Ford predicted that flying cars
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福特先生（福特汽车创始人）就预见了
00:26
of some form would be available.
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会飞的汽车迟早会出现。
00:28
Now, 60 years later,
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现在，60年过去了
00:30
I'm here to tell you why it's possible.
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我在这里告诉大家，为什么会飞的汽车可能成为现实。
00:32
When I was about five years old,
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当我大概是5岁的时候，
00:34
not very much -- about a year after
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不久，就1年以后，
00:36
Mr. Ford made his predictions,
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福特先生预见了飞天车的出现。
00:38
I was living in a rural part of Canada,
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那时我生活在加拿大的郊区，
00:41
on the side of a mountain in a very isolated area.
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在一座山旁边，那是一个很偏僻的地方。
00:46
Getting to school, for a kid that was actually pretty short for his age,
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在寒冷的加拿大冬天，
00:50
through the Canadian winter, was not a pleasant experience.
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去上学可不是一件愉快的事情。
00:53
It was a trying and scary thing
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对一个小孩子来说，
00:57
for a young kid to be going through.
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那简直就是一件必须去尝试的恐怖的事情。
01:00
At the end of my first year in school, in the summer of that year,
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在我一年级末的那个夏天
01:05
I discovered a couple hummingbirds
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在我们家附近的一个库房里
01:08
that were caught in a shed near my home.
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我发现了一些被困住的蜂鸟
01:10
They'd worn themselves out,
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它们使出浑身的力气
01:12
beating themselves against the window,
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往窗户上撞
01:14
and, well, they were easy to capture.
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所以它们很容易被捉住
01:16
I took them outside and as I let them go, that split second, even though they were very tired,
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但是当我把它们放出来的时候，虽然它们已经很疲惫了，
01:20
that second I let them go they hovered for a second,
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它们用不到一秒钟的时间里飞出来，盘旋一下
01:22
then zipped off into the distance.
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然后猛地一转身，消失在我的视线里。
01:24
I thought, what a great way to get to school.
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当时我想，天啊，这是多么好的方式去上学啊！
01:26
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
01:29
For a kid at that age, this was like infinite speed, disappearing,
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对那个年龄的小孩来说，那个速度真的是超级快！
01:33
and I was very inspired by that.
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我的灵感就来源于此。
01:35
And so the next -- over the next
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所以，在后来的
01:37
six decades, believe it or not,
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60年里
01:39
I've built a number of aircraft,
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我造了很多飞行器，
01:42
with the goal of creating something that could do for you, or me,
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希望创造某种交通工具可以带给你，或者我，
01:46
what the hummingbird does,
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像蜂鸟一样的速度
01:48
and give you that flexibility.
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和灵活性。
01:51
I've called this vehicle, generically, a volantor,
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给这种交通工具我起名叫——沃蓝特
01:55
after the Latin word "volant," meaning,
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源于拉丁语“volant”，意思是
01:57
to fly in a light, nimble manner.
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像光一般灵活的飞行。
02:00
Volantor-like helicopter, perhaps.
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或者说光一般灵活飞行的直升机。
02:02
The FAA, the controlling body above all,
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联邦航空管理局，管理空中飞行和飞行器的组织
02:05
calls it a "powered lift aircraft."
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把它叫做“动力提升的飞行器”
02:08
And they've actually issued a pilot's license --
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而且，联邦航空管理局已经颁发了特殊的飞行执照
02:11
a powerlift pilot's license -- for this type of aircraft.
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“动力提升飞行员执照”——专门为这种飞行器。
02:15
It's closer than you think. It's kind of remarkable when you consider that
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事实上飞天车的发展远比你们想象地要快。试想一下：
02:18
there are no operational powered lift aircraft.
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现在还没有可以操纵和投入飞行的“动力提升飞行器”。
02:21
So for once, perhaps, the government is ahead of itself.
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所以，可以说，政府的这一步是超前的。
02:25
The press calls my particular volantor a "Skycar."
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媒体把我设计的沃蓝特叫做“飞天车”。
02:30
This is a little bit earlier version of it,
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这是一个早期的飞天车
02:33
that's why it's given the X designation,
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所以它的标号有X
02:35
but it's a four-passenger aircraft
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它是一个可以容纳4人的飞行器
02:37
that could take off vertically, like a helicopter --
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而且可以垂直起飞，就像直升飞机
02:39
therefore it doesn't need an airfield.
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所以它不需要机场
02:41
On the ground, it's powered electrically.
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当在陆地上是，它是电力驱动的。
02:45
It's actually classified as a motorcycle
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事实上，它的确被划分为机动车
02:48
because of the three wheels, which is a great asset
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因为它有3个轮子
02:50
because it allows you, theoretically, to use this on the highways
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理论上可以在高速公路上行驶
02:52
in most states, and actually in all cities.
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在美国大部分州和所有城市。
02:55
So that's an asset because if you've got to deal with the crash protection issues
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所以它是一个优点，如果你考虑给汽车买保险的话
02:58
of the automobile, forget it -- you're never going to fly it.
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算了，你永远不会用它来飞行。
03:02
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
03:07
One could say that a helicopter
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有人会说直升飞机
03:09
does pretty much what the hummingbird does,
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正是模拟了蜂鸟的飞行
03:12
and gets around in much the same way, and it's true,
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并且像蜂鸟一样到处飞，的确如此
03:14
but a helicopter is a very complex device.
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但是，直升飞机是一个非常复杂的设备。
03:18
It's expensive --
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第一，昂贵
03:20
so expensive that very few people could own or use it.
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如此昂贵所以很少人买得起或者用得起。
03:24
It's often been described because of its fragile nature and its complexity,
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第二，复杂但脆弱
03:28
as a series of parts -- a large number of parts --
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有人说直升飞机就是一大堆零件
03:30
flying in formation.
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的编队飞行。
03:32
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
03:37
Another difference, and I have to describe this,
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飞天车和直升飞机的另一个不同之处在于，这一点我必须指出
03:39
because it's very personal,
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飞天车是个人交通工具，非常私人的东西。
03:41
another great difference between the helicopter
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还有一个不同，直升飞机
03:43
and the volantor --
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和沃蓝特
03:45
in my case the Skycar volantor --
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我的飞天车
03:47
is the experience that I've had
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就是乘坐时的不同体验
03:49
in flying both of those.
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我有幸坐过直升飞机和飞天车。
03:51
In a helicopter you feel -- and it's still a remarkable sensation --
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在直升飞机里 - 乘坐直升飞机能仍然给人不寻常的感受
03:54
you feel like you're being hauled up from above
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你感觉你是被旋转的螺旋桨
03:57
by a vibrating crane.
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从上面提起来的
03:59
When you get in the Skycar -- and I can tell you,
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但是你如果在飞天车里——我可以告诉你
04:01
there's only one other person that's flown it, but he had the same sensation --
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只有一位其他的人坐过飞天车，但他也有相同的体验
04:04
you really feel like you're being lifted up
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你会感觉你是被举起来的
04:06
by a magic carpet,
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被一种充满魔力的地毯
04:09
without any vibration whatsoever. The sensation is unbelievable.
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绝对没有震动。那种感觉简直让人难以置信。
04:12
And it's been a great motivator.
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这种感觉也是我研究飞天车的一个很大的动力。
04:14
I only get to fly this vehicle occasionally,
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我也只是偶尔飞一下飞天车
04:17
and only when I can persuade my stockholders
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只有得到我的股东们
04:19
to let me do so,
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同意我飞行。
04:21
but it's still one of those wonderful experiences
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但是，那种飞行的体验太棒了
04:24
that reward you for all that time.
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让我觉得花在飞天车上所有的时间都是值得的。
04:30
What we really need is something to replace the automobile
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其实我们真正需要的是一种交通工具来替代汽车
04:33
for those 50-plus mile trips.
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完成50英里以上的交通出行。
04:36
Very few people realize that 50 mile-plus trips
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很少人意识到在美国50英里以上的交通出行
04:38
make up 85 percent of the miles traveled in America.
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占据了85%以上的出行里程。
04:41
If we can get rid of that,
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如果我们可以不用汽车完成50英里以上的出行
04:43
then the highways will now be useful to you,
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那么高速公路会是非常有用的，
04:46
as contrasted by what's happening
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而不是现在
04:48
in many parts of the world today.
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世界很多地方正在发生的那样（拥堵）。
04:52
On this next slide, is an interesting history
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下一张幻灯片是一个很有趣的故事
04:56
of what we really have seen in infrastructure,
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这是交通基础设施的发展历史，
05:00
because whether I give you a perfect Skycar,
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因为不管我是否给你一辆完美的飞天车
05:03
the perfect vehicle for use, it's going to have very little value to you
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它都将是无用的
05:06
unless you've got a system to use it in.
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除非我们有这样的交通基础设施来供我们使用。
05:08
I'm sure any of you have asked the question,
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肯定你们都有这样一个问题：
05:10
yeah, are there great things up there -- what am I going to do, get up there?
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有什么东西吸引我把汽车开到空中？
05:12
It's bad enough on a highway, what's it going to be like to be in the air?
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在高速路上已经够糟糕了，空中交通会是什么样子？
05:15
This world that you're going to be talking about tomorrow
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我们在这里讨论的未来交通
05:18
is going to be completely integrated. You're not going to be a pilot,
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将会是完全整合了的交通。你不用成为飞行员
05:20
you're going to be a passenger.
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你将只是乘客。
05:22
And it's the infrastructure that really determines whether this process goes forward.
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交通基础设施将决定飞天车是否能得到发展。
05:25
I can tell you, technically we can build Skycars --
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我可以说，技术上我们完全可以制造飞天车——
05:27
my God, we went to the moon!
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天呢，我们已经登上过月球了！
05:29
The technology there was much more difficult than what I'm dealing with here.
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交通设施的建设将会比我发明飞天车要难得多。
05:32
But we have to have these priority changes,
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但是我们必须要思考这个问题，
05:34
we have to have infrastructure to go with this.
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我们必须在研究飞天车的同时建设与之相适应的基础设施。
05:36
Historically you see that we got around
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历史上，
05:38
200 years ago by canals,
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200年前我们使用航运，
05:40
and as that system disappeared, were replaced by railroads.
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后来铁路代替了航运，
05:43
As that disappeared we came in with highways.
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在后来高速公路代替了铁路。
05:45
But if you look at that top corner -- the highway system --
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但是如果你注意到右上角——高速公路系统——
05:48
you see where we are today. Highways are no longer being built,
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你看到我们现在的位置。现在我们已经不再建设新的高速公路了。
05:52
and that's a fact. You won't see any additional highways
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这是一个事实。你将不会看到任何新的高速公路的建设
05:55
in the next 10 years.
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在未来10年里都不会。
05:57
However, the next 10 years, if like the last 10 years,
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但是，在未来10年内，就像过去的10年一样，
05:59
we're going to see 30 percent more traffic.
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会有30%的交通量增长。
06:02
And where is that going to lead you to?
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这会带给我们什么？
06:04
So the issue then, I've often asked, is
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因此，我常常问，
06:06
when is it going to happen?
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飞天车的时代何时来临？
06:09
When are we going to be able to have these vehicles?
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什么时候我们将开始拥有和使用这样的飞天车？
06:12
And of course, if you ask me, I'm going to give you a really optimistic view.
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当然如果你问我，我会给你一个很乐观的估计。
06:15
After all, I've been spending 60 years here believing it's going to happen tomorrow.
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毕竟，过去60年里我都一直坚信飞天车的时代就在明天。
06:18
So, I'm not going to quote myself on this.
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所以，我的观点不具有代表性。
06:21
I'd prefer to quote someone else,
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我得引用别人的话来回答这个问题。
06:23
who testified with me before Congress,
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这个人和我一起在国会参加过听证会，
06:25
and in his position as head of NASA
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他当时是国家航空和宇宙航行局局长。
06:29
put forward this particular vision
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他也预见
06:31
of the future of this type of aircraft.
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飞天车将是未来的发展趋势。
06:35
Now I would argue, actually, if you look at the fact that on the highways today,
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所以我要指出的是，如果你看一看公路交通的现状——
06:38
you're only averaging about 30 miles per hour --
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平均时速只有30英里每小时
06:41
on average, according to the DOT --
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根据交通部的数据——
06:44
the Skycar travels at over 300 miles an hour,
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而飞天车的速度可以超过300英里每小时，
06:46
up to 25,000 feet.
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飞行高度可以达到25000英尺。
06:49
And so, in effect, you could see perhaps a tenfold increase
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所以，飞天车可以带给我们10倍于现在的
06:51
in the ability to get around
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交通能力
06:54
as far as speed is concerned.
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如果仅从从速度上来讲的话。
07:01
Unbeknownst to many of you,
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很多人都不知道
07:04
the highway in the sky that I'm talking about here
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其实我所说的“空中之路”
07:06
has been under construction for 10 years.
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已经被建设了10年。
07:09
It makes use of the GPS -- you're familiar with GPS in your automobile,
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空中之路利用GPS——你们很熟悉汽车使用的GPS
07:12
but you may not be familiar with the fact that there's a GPS U.S.,
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但是你们可能不熟悉这样的事实：不仅有美国GPS
07:15
there's a Russian GPS,
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还有俄罗斯GPS，
07:17
and there's a new GPS system
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另外有一个新的GPS系统
07:19
going to Europe, called Galileo.
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即欧洲的伽利略GPS系统。
07:21
With those three systems,
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用这3套系统，
07:23
you have what is always necessary --
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你就有了空中交通所必须的
07:25
a level of redundancy that says,
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某种程度上的冗余度
07:27
if one system fails, you'll still have a way
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就是说，如果一套系统失效，你还有其他系统
07:29
to make sure that you're being controlled.
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来保证你的飞天车得到控制
07:31
Because if you're in this world, where computers are controlling what you're doing,
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因为在这个用计算机控制一切的世界
07:34
it's going to be very critical that something can't fail on you.
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可靠性至关重要。
07:39
How would a trip in a Skycar work?
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那么，用飞天车怎样出行？
07:41
Well, you can't right now
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当然，现在你还不能够
07:43
take off from your home because it's too noisy.
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在家里起飞，因为噪音太大
07:46
I mean to be able to take off from your home, you'd have to be extremely quiet.
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我的意思是说，如果要从家里起飞的话，必须非常安静
07:49
But it's still fairly quiet.
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其实飞天车也没有太大的噪音。
07:51
You'd motor, electrically, to a vertiport,
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起飞，首先需要把飞天车开到一个供垂直升降的机场
07:55
which may be a few blocks, maybe even a few miles away.
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可能要过几条街，或者几英里外
07:57
This is clearly, as I said earlier, a roadable aircraft,
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我已经说过，飞天车是一种可以旋转的飞行器，
08:00
and you're not going to spend that much time on the road.
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因此你并不希望花太多的时间在公路上
08:02
After all, if you can fly like that,
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毕竟，如果你可以飞，
08:04
why are you going to drive around on a highway?
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为什么还要在陆地上驾驶？
08:06
Go to a local vertiport,
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到附近的一个机场
08:08
plug in your destination,
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输入你的目的地
08:11
delivered almost like a passenger.
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你就像一个乘客一样（不需要驾驶）
08:15
You can play computer games, you can sleep, you can read on the way.
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在途中你可以玩电子游戏，睡觉，或者读书。
08:19
This is the world -- there won't be you as a pilot. And I know the pilots in the audience aren't going to like that --
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这是一个不需要飞行员的世界。——我知道飞行员们不喜欢我听到这个消息
08:22
and I've had a lot of bad feedback
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我也的确听到了一些不好的反馈
08:24
from people who want to be up there, flying around
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因为有些人想“驾驶”飞天车
08:26
and experiencing that.
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去体验在空中开车的感觉。
08:29
And of course, I suppose like recreational parks you can still do that.
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当然，我想将来会有一些像游乐场一样的地方允许你“驾驶”飞天车。
08:32
But the vehicle itself is going to be a very, very controlled environment.
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但是飞天车本身就是一个非常先进的控制系统
08:36
Or it's going to have no use to you as a person who might use such a system.
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或者说飞天车将是非常容易操作的。
08:40
We flew the first vehicle for the international press
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我们第一次试飞是为国际传媒
08:43
in 1965, when I really got it started.
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那是1965年，我刚开始设计飞天车。
08:45
I was a professor at the U.C. Davis System,
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我当时是加州大学戴维斯分校的教授，
08:47
and I got a lot of excitement around this,
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第一次飞行令我兴奋不已
08:49
and I was able to fund the initiation of the program back in that time.
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而且我争取到了资金来启动这个项目。
08:53
And then through the various years
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在后来的许多年里
08:55
we invented various vehicles.
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我们又发明了各种各样的飞天车。
08:57
Actually the critical point was in 1989,
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事实上，1989年是重要的一年
09:00
when we demonstrated the stability of this vehicle --
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我们证明了飞天车的稳定性——
09:02
how completely stable it was in all circumstances,
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在各种不同条件下完全稳定，
09:05
which is of course very critical.
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这非常重要。
09:07
Still not a practical vehicle during all of this,
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虽然飞天车还没有到可以商业化操作的阶段，
09:10
but moving in the right direction, we believe.
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但我们相信我们在向正确的方向前进。
09:14
Finally, in the early part of --
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最后， 在2002年初
09:17
or actually the middle of 2002,
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或者是2002年中
09:21
we flew the 400 -- M400, which was the four-passenger vehicle.
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我们试飞了M400——容纳4人的飞天车。
09:25
In this case here, we're flying it remotely, as we always did at the beginning.
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这一次，我们仍然是遥控飞行（在试验初期我们一般采取这种方法）
09:29
And we had very small power plants in it at this time.
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那时我们的动力装置功率很小。
09:32
We are now installing larger powerplants,
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现在我们正在安装更大功率的动力装置，
09:34
which will make it possible for me to get back on board.
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希望下次飞行时我可以坐上飞天车。
09:36
A vertical-takeoff aircraft
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垂直升降的飞行器
09:38
is not the safest vehicle during the test flight program.
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不是最安全的，这点已经在试飞阶段得到验证。
09:42
There's an old adage that applied for the years
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有一句格言
09:45
between 1950s and 1970s,
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在1950年到1970年被广为流传。
09:48
when every aeronautical company
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当时每一家航空公司
09:50
was working on vertical-takeoff aircraft.
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都在研究垂直起飞的飞机。
09:54
A vertical-takeoff aircraft
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垂直起飞的飞行器
09:56
needs an artificial stabilization system --
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需要一套平衡稳定系统
09:58
that's essential.
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这非常重要。
10:00
At least for the hover,
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至少是对直升机
10:02
and the low-speed flight.
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和低速飞行的飞机。
10:06
If that single-stability system,
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如果这套唯一的平衡稳定系统，
10:08
that brain that flies that aircraft, fails, or if the engine fails,
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或者说控制飞行器的大脑不工作了，或者引擎失灵了
10:12
that vehicle crashes. There is no option to that.
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那么飞机必然坠毁。别无选择。
10:15
And the adage that I'm referring to,
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我说的这句格言
10:17
that applied at that time,
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应用于那个时候的格言
10:19
was that nothing comes down faster
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就是：没有任何东西
10:21
than a VTOL aircraft upside down.
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比一架失灵的垂直升降飞机坠得快！
10:23
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
10:25
That's a macabre comment because we lost a lot of pilots.
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那是一句可怕的格言，因为我们为此失去了很多飞行员。
10:28
In fact, the aircraft companies gave up on
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事实上，飞机制造公司一度放弃了
10:30
vertical-takeoff aircraft
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垂直升降飞机
10:32
more or less for a number of years.
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差不多几十年。
10:34
And there's really only one operational aircraft in the world today
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现在世界上投入运行的
10:37
that's a vertical-takeoff aircraft -- as distinct from a helicopter --
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可以垂直升降的飞机——不算直升飞机——
10:39
and that's the Hawker Harrier jump jet.
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只有一种，就是“鹞”式飞机。
10:47
A vertical-takeoff aircraft,
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垂直升降飞机，
10:49
like the hummingbird,
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就像蜂鸟一样
10:51
has a very high metabolism,
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新陈代谢速度非常快
10:53
which means it requires a lot of energy.
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这意味着它们需要很多能量。
10:56
Getting that energy is very, very difficult. It all comes down
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要获得这么多能量非常困难。
10:59
to that power plant -- how to get a large amount of power in a small package.
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这一切都归结到发动机——如何在那么小的空间里提供那么大的动力。
11:05
Fortunately, Dr. Felix Wankel
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幸运地是，Felix Wankel 博士(一位德国工程师）
11:07
invented the rotary engine.
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发明了旋转引擎。
11:10
A very unique engine -- it's round,
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一种非常特别的引擎——圆形，
11:12
it's small, it's vibration-free.
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体积小，没有震动。
11:15
It fits exactly where we need to fit it,
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旋转引擎正好适合飞天车，
11:17
right in the center of the hubs of the ducts in the system --
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安装在轮毂的中央
11:20
very critical. In fact that engine --
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这非常重要。事实上这种引擎——
11:22
for those who are into the automobile --
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熟悉汽车行业的人知道——
11:24
know that it recently is applied to the RX8 --
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最近被应用在了RX8上
11:26
the Mazda.
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RX8是马自达赛车。
11:28
And that sportscar won Sports Car of the Year.
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而且正是这辆赛车被评为“年度最佳赛车”。
11:32
Wonderful engine.
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旋转引擎是非常棒的引擎。
11:34
In that application, it generates one horsepower per pound,
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应用在马自达赛车上的引擎提供1马力/磅
11:36
which is twice as good as your car engine today,
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那是现在普通汽车马力的两倍，
11:39
but only half of what we need.
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但是也只提供了我们需要的马力的一半。
11:41
My company has spent 35 years
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我的公司花了35年
11:44
and many millions of dollars taking that rotary engine,
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和数百万美元来研究旋转引擎
11:47
which was invented in the late '50s, and getting it to the point that we get
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把这个50年代末发明的东西改造成我们需要的
11:50
over two horsepower per pound, reliably, and critical.
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能够提供超过2马力/磅，可靠的引擎。
11:53
We actually get 175 horsepower
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我们已经能够得到每立方英尺
11:56
into one cubic foot.
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175 马力。
11:59
We have eight engines in this vehicle.
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我们安装了8台这样的引擎在这辆飞天车上。
12:01
We have four computers. We have two parachutes.
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同时安装了4台电脑，2个降落伞。
12:05
Redundancy is the critical issue here.
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在这里冗余度非常重要。
12:07
If you want to stay alive you've got to have backups.
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如果你不想发生任何意外的话你必须要有后备计划。
12:09
And we have actually flown this vehicle and lost an engine,
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实际上我们在飞行过程中的确有一个引擎失灵，
12:11
and continued to hover.
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但是我们仍然可以飞行。
12:13
The computers back up each other. There's a voting system --
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4台计算机可以相互补充。这里还有一套投票系统——
12:16
if one computer is not agreeing with the other three,
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如果一台计算机不同意其他3天，
12:20
it's kicked out of the system.
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那么这台计算机就被系统否决了。
12:21
And then you have three -- you still have the triple redundancy.
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然后你还有3台计算机——3倍冗余。
12:24
If one of those fails, you still have a second chance.
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如果3台中又有一台失灵了，你还有第二次机会。
12:27
If you stick around, then good luck.
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如果你被滞留在空中了，那么我只能说祝你好运了。
12:29
There won't be a third chance.
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不会再有第三次机会。
12:33
The parachutes are there -- hopefully,
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当然还有降落伞
12:35
more for psychological than real reasons, but
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其实降落伞更多是心理上给人安全感
12:38
they will be an ultimate backup if it comes to that.
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那将是最后的选择，到万不得已的时候才用。
12:41
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
12:44
I'd like to show you an animation in this next one,
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下面我要给大家看一个动画
12:46
which is one element
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这也是飞天车的
12:48
of the Skycar's use,
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用途之一。
12:50
but it's one that demonstrates how it could be used.
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动画演示了如何应用飞天车。
12:52
You could think of it personally in your own terms,
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你可以试想如果你有一辆飞天车
12:54
of how you might use it.
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你将如何使用它。
12:56
Video: Skycar dispatched, launch rescue vehicle for San Francisco.
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飞天车被派出，到旧金山执行营救任务。
13:28
Paul Moller: I believe that personal transportation
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我相信私人交通工具
13:30
in something like the Skycar,
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就像飞天车这样
13:32
probably in another volantor form as well,
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或者其他形式的飞天车，
13:35
will be a significant part of our lives,
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将会是我们生活中一个重要的部分
13:38
as Dr. Goldin says, within the next 10 years.
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就在未来10年内，如Goldin博士所预见。
13:41
And it's going to change the demographics in a very significant way.
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到那时，飞天车将大大地改变人口的分布。
13:45
If you can live 75 miles from San Francisco and get there in 15 minutes,
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试想：如果你可以住在离旧金山75英里外的地方并且在15分钟内到达旧金山，
13:49
you're going to sell your 700,000-dollar apartment,
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你肯定会卖掉价值70万美元的公寓，
13:53
buy an upscale home on the side of a mountain,
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在山边买一套房子
13:55
buy a Skycar,
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和一辆飞天车，
13:57
which I think would be priced at that time perhaps
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我想到那时的价格总共只需要
13:59
in the area of 100,000 dollars, put money in the bank ...
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10万美元，然后把其他的钱存进银行。
14:02
that's a very significant incentive for getting out of San Francisco.
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这将成为你存钱在银行的动机。。。
14:06
But you better be the first one out of town as the real estate values go to hell.
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但是你得是第一个搬出来的人，在房价飞涨之前。
14:09
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
14:14
Developing the Skycar has been a real challenge.
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飞天车的研究是一个非常大的挑战。
14:17
Obviously I'm dependent on a lot of other people
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很明显我依靠许多人
14:19
believing in what I'm doing -- both financially and in technical help.
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那些相信飞天车的人——经济上和技术上的帮助。
14:23
And that has --
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同时
14:25
you run into situations where you have this great acceptance of what you're doing,
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你也会发现你处于一种境地：很多人支持你的想法，
14:29
and a lot of rejection of the same kind of thing.
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也有很多人反对你得想法。
14:32
I characterized this emerging technology
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关于新兴科技
14:36
in an aphorism,
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我有一句格言
14:38
as it's described,
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它的内容
14:41
which really talks about what I've experienced,
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真正反映了我的经历
14:43
and I'm sure what other people may have experienced
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我肯定它也反映了其他很多人的经历
14:45
in emerging technologies.
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研究新兴科技的经历。
14:53
There's an interesting poll that came out recently
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最近有一项很有趣的民意调查
14:55
under NAS --
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国家科学院的调查
14:57
I think it's MSNBC --
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我想是微软国家广播公司做的调查
14:59
in which they asked the question,
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调查中问到：
15:01
"Are you in the market for a volantor?"
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“你会买飞天车吗？”
15:04
Twenty-three percent said, "Yes, as soon as possible."
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23%的人回答“是，越快越好”
15:07
Forty-seven percent -- yes, as soon as they could -- price could come down.
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47%的人回答“是，等价格降下来后”
15:10
Twenty-three percent said, "As soon as it's proven safe."
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23%的人回答：“等到安全性被证明后”
15:13
Only seven percent said
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只有7%的人说
15:15
that they wouldn't consider buying a Skycar.
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他们绝对不会买飞天车。
15:18
I'm encouraged by that. At least it makes me feel like,
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这个调查大大地鼓励了我。至少它让我感觉到
15:22
to some extent, it is becoming self-evident.
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飞天车从某种程度上讲是无须怀疑的趋势。
15:25
That we need an alternative to the automobile,
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我们的确需要一种交通工具来替代汽车
15:27
at least for those 50-mile trips and more,
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至少是代替50英里以上的出行
15:29
so that the highways become usable in today's world.
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那样的话公路交通会更加有效
15:32
Thank you.
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谢谢大家
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Moller - InventorWith a team of engineers, Paul Moller works on the Skycar, a combination car and jet, as well as the M200, a saucer-shaped hovering car. He also develops next-generation engines to power these and other amazing vehicles.
Why you should listen
Paul Moller is the president, CEO and chair of Moller International, a company devoted to engineering the combination of automobile and jet known as the Moller Skycar. His company also works on the M200, a low-flying disc, or volantor, that may go into production later in 2009. (As cool as it looks, the M200 has serious applications as a rescue vehicle.) A partner company, Freedom Motors, builds the Rotapower engine.
Moller developed the Aeronautical Engineering program at UC Davis while a professor there from 1963 to 1975. In 1972 he founded SuperTrapp Industries, and also led the group that developed the Davis Research Park Complex between 1975 and 1983. He's been working on VTOL (vertical takeoff and landing) personal vehicles since the late 1960s.
Paul Moller | Speaker | TED.com