TED2018
Steven Pinker: Is the world getting better or worse? A look at the numbers
史蒂文 · 平克: 世界变得更好还是更糟了？数字会告诉我们答案
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2017 年真是是史上最糟糕的一年吗？通过对凶杀率，战争，贫穷，污染及其他近期数据的分析，心理学家史蒂文 · 平克发现，我们在这些方面做得比 30 年前都要好。但进步并非理所当然，也不意味着对任何时候的每个人都变得更好。史蒂文 · 平克指出，进步是关于解决问题，我们应该关注气候变化，核战争这些等待解决的问题，而不是坐以待毙。他指出，“我们永远不会拥有完美的世界，寻找完美的世界是危险的”。“但如果将知识用于提升人类福祉，我们获取更美好事物的能力就是无限的”。
Steven Pinker - Psychologist
Steven Pinker is a professor of cognitive science (the study of the human mind) who writes about language, mind and human nature. Full bio
Steven Pinker is a professor of cognitive science (the study of the human mind) who writes about language, mind and human nature. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Many people face the news each morning
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每天早晨，很多人都面对着
00:16
with trepidation and dread.
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充满不安和恐惧的新闻。
00:18
Every day, we read of shootings,
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每天，我们都会读到枪击案，
00:21
inequality, pollution, dictatorship,
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不平等、污染、独裁统治、
00:25
war and the spread of nuclear weapons.
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战争和核武器扩散的消息。
00:28
These are some of the reasons
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这些是 2016 年
00:30
that 2016 was called
the "Worst. Year. Ever."
the "Worst. Year. Ever."
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被称为“史上最糟糕的一年”的部分原因。
00:35
Until 2017 claimed that record --
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直到 2017 年再创新高——
00:38
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
00:39
and left many people longing
for earlier decades,
for earlier decades,
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这使得很多人不禁
怀念几十年前的日子，
怀念几十年前的日子，
00:42
when the world seemed safer,
cleaner and more equal.
cleaner and more equal.
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那时世界看来更安全，清净和平等。
00:46
But is this a sensible way
to understand the human condition
to understand the human condition
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但这是理解 21 世纪人类生存状况的
00:50
in the 21st century?
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合理方式吗？
00:52
As Franklin Pierce Adams pointed out,
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就如富兰克林 · 皮尔斯 · 亚当斯指出的那样：
00:54
"Nothing is more responsible
for the good old days
for the good old days
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“怀念往昔美好时光的人的记忆
00:57
than a bad memory."
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一定糟透了。“
00:58
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
如果你拿现在的新闻头条
01:01
You can always fool yourself
into seeing a decline
into seeing a decline
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01:05
if you compare bleeding
headlines of the present
headlines of the present
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跟过去玫瑰色的图片相对比，
01:07
with rose-tinted images of the past.
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你就总会以为自己
正面临着世风日下的局面。
正面临着世风日下的局面。
01:10
What does the trajectory
of the world look like
of the world look like
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当我们用恒定的尺度
来衡量幸福感时，
来衡量幸福感时，
01:13
when we measure well-being over time
using a constant yardstick?
using a constant yardstick?
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世界的变化轨迹会是什么样呢？
01:17
Let's compare the most recent
data on the present
data on the present
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让我们用同样的方法
来比较最新的数据
来比较最新的数据
01:20
with the same measures 30 years ago.
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和 30 年前的数据。
01:23
Last year, Americans killed each other
at a rate of 5.3 per hundred thousand,
at a rate of 5.3 per hundred thousand,
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去年，美国每 10 万人中有
5.3 人死于凶杀，
5.3 人死于凶杀，
01:28
had seven percent
of their citizens in poverty
of their citizens in poverty
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7%的贫困人口，
01:31
and emitted 21 million tons
of particulate matter
of particulate matter
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排放了 2100 万吨的微粒物质，
01:35
and four million tons of sulfur dioxide.
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以及 400 万吨的二氧化硫。
01:38
But 30 years ago, the homicide rate
was 8.5 per hundred thousand,
was 8.5 per hundred thousand,
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而 30 年前，每 10 万人中
有 8.5 人死于凶杀，
有 8.5 人死于凶杀，
01:42
poverty rate was 12 percent
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贫困率为 12 %，
01:44
and we emitted 35 million tons
of particulate matter
of particulate matter
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我们排放了 3500 万吨的微粒物质，
01:47
and 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide.
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以及 2000 万吨的二氧化硫。
01:51
What about the world as a whole?
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那么世界整体情况如何？
01:53
Last year, the world had 12 ongoing wars,
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去年，全球共有 12 场战争，
01:56
60 autocracies,
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60 个独裁政权，
01:59
10 percent of the world population
in extreme poverty
in extreme poverty
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10% 的极端贫穷人口
02:02
and more than 10,000 nuclear weapons.
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以及超过 1 万件核武器。
02:05
But 30 years ago, there were 23 wars,
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而 30 年前，一共有 23 场战争，
02:08
85 autocracies,
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85 个独裁政权，
02:10
37 percent of the world population
in extreme poverty
in extreme poverty
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37 %的全球人口极度贫困
以及超过 6 万件核武器。
02:13
and more than 60,000 nuclear weapons.
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02:17
True, last year was a terrible year
for terrorism in Western Europe,
for terrorism in Western Europe,
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的确，去年是西欧恐怖主义
十分猖獗的一年，
十分猖獗的一年，
02:21
with 238 deaths,
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共造成 238 人死亡，
02:24
but 1988 was worse with 440 deaths.
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但 1988 年更糟，有 440 人死亡。
02:28
What's going on?
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这是怎么回事？
02:30
Was 1988 a particularly bad year?
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1988 年是尤其糟糕的一年吗？
02:33
Or are these improvements a sign
that the world, for all its struggles,
that the world, for all its struggles,
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或者，这是世界进步的迹象，
在挣扎中，越变越好？
02:37
gets better over time?
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02:39
Might we even invoke the admittedly
old-fashioned notion of progress?
old-fashioned notion of progress?
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我们是否可以援引
公认的过时了进步观念？
公认的过时了进步观念？
02:45
To do so is to court
a certain amount of derision,
a certain amount of derision,
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这样做会招来一些嘲笑，
02:49
because I have found
that intellectuals hate progress.
that intellectuals hate progress.
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因为我发现知识分子憎恨进步。
02:53
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:54
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
02:57
And intellectuals who call themselves
progressive really hate progress.
progressive really hate progress.
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自称进步的知识分子真的讨厌进步。
03:01
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
03:02
Now, it's not that they hate
the fruits of progress, mind you.
the fruits of progress, mind you.
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请注意，我并不是说
他们讨厌进步的成果。
他们讨厌进步的成果。
03:05
Most academics and pundits
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大多数学者和专家
03:08
would rather have their surgery
with anesthesia than without it.
with anesthesia than without it.
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做手术时还是会选择用麻醉，
而非什么都不用。
而非什么都不用。
03:13
It's the idea of progress
that rankles the chattering class.
that rankles the chattering class.
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让这些喋喋不休的人不满的，
是进步的观点。
是进步的观点。
03:17
If you believe that humans
can improve their lot, I have been told,
can improve their lot, I have been told,
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如果你相信人类可以改善命运，
正如我被告知的那样，
正如我被告知的那样，
03:21
that means that you have a blind faith
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这意味着你有着盲目的信仰，
03:23
and a quasi-religious belief
in the outmoded superstition
in the outmoded superstition
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一种类似宗教的落后迷信，
相信对不可阻挡的进步神话的
03:28
and the false promise
of the myth of the onward march
of the myth of the onward march
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03:31
of inexorable progress.
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虚假承诺。
03:34
You are a cheerleader
for vulgar American can-doism,
for vulgar American can-doism,
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你是粗俗的美国佬的啦啦队长，
03:39
with the rah-rah spirit
of boardroom ideology,
of boardroom ideology,
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拥有董事会的意识形态，硅谷和商会的
03:42
Silicon Valley
and the Chamber of Commerce.
and the Chamber of Commerce.
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拉拉队精神。
03:45
You are a practitioner of Whig history,
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你是辉格历史的实践者，
03:48
a naive optimist, a Pollyanna
and, of course, a Pangloss,
and, of course, a Pangloss,
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一位天真的乐观主义者，
你就像是潘格劳斯，
你就像是潘格劳斯，
03:52
alluding to the Voltaire
character who declared,
character who declared,
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伏尔泰小说里的角色，曾宣称：
03:55
"All is for the best
in the best of all possible worlds."
in the best of all possible worlds."
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“在理想的最美好的世界中，
一切都是为最美好的目的而设。“
一切都是为最美好的目的而设。“
03:58
Well, Professor Pangloss,
as it happens, was a pessimist.
as it happens, was a pessimist.
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好吧，潘格劳斯教授
碰巧是个悲观主义者。
碰巧是个悲观主义者。
04:01
A true optimist believes
there can be much better worlds
there can be much better worlds
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一个真正的乐观主义者相信
存在着比我们今天拥有的
存在着比我们今天拥有的
更好的世界。
04:04
than the one we have today.
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04:06
But all of this is irrelevant,
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但所有这些都无关紧要，
04:07
because the question
of whether progress has taken place
of whether progress has taken place
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因为进步是否发生
与信念无关，
04:10
is not a matter of faith
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04:12
or having an optimistic temperament
or seeing the glass as half full.
or seeing the glass as half full.
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也不取决于是否拥有乐观气质，
或是看到了半杯水（而不是半个空杯子）。
或是看到了半杯水（而不是半个空杯子）。
04:16
It's a testable hypothesis.
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而是一个可检验的假设。
04:18
For all their differences,
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尽管各有分歧，
04:20
people largely agree
on what goes into human well-being:
on what goes into human well-being:
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在很大程度上人们会一致认为，
人类的幸福包括以下因素：
人类的幸福包括以下因素：
04:24
life, health, sustenance, prosperity,
peace, freedom, safety, knowledge,
peace, freedom, safety, knowledge,
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生命、健康、生计、繁荣、
和平、自由、安全、知识、
和平、自由、安全、知识、
休闲、快乐。
04:30
leisure, happiness.
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04:32
All of these things can be measured.
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这些东西都可以测量。
04:34
If they have improved over time,
that, I submit, is progress.
that, I submit, is progress.
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如果它们随时间得到改善，
我认为就是进步。
我认为就是进步。
04:38
Let's go to the data,
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让我们看看数据。
04:40
beginning with the most
precious thing of all, life.
precious thing of all, life.
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从最珍贵的东西开始，生命。
04:43
For most of human history,
life expectancy at birth was around 30.
life expectancy at birth was around 30.
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在人类历史长河的大部分时期中，
预期寿命为 30 岁上下。
预期寿命为 30 岁上下。
04:48
Today, worldwide, it is more than 70,
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今天，全球平均寿命超过了70岁，
04:51
and in the developed parts of the world,
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在发达国家，
则超过80岁。
04:53
more than 80.
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04:55
250 years ago, in the richest
countries of the world,
countries of the world,
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250 年前，在全球最富有的国家，
04:58
a third of the children
did not live to see their fifth birthday,
did not live to see their fifth birthday,
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在风险被降低一百倍之前，
05:02
before the risk was brought
down a hundredfold.
down a hundredfold.
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1/3 的儿童活不到五岁。
今天，婴儿死亡率在全球最贫穷的国家
05:05
Today, that fate befalls
less than six percent of children
less than six percent of children
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05:08
in the poorest countries of the world.
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也已经降低到 6 %以下。
05:11
Famine is one of the Four Horsemen
of the Apocalypse.
of the Apocalypse.
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饥荒是世界末日的四骑士之一。
它可以给世界上任何地方带来毁灭。
05:15
It could bring devastation
to any part of the world.
to any part of the world.
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05:18
Today, famine has been banished
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今天，饥荒已经被驱逐至
最偏远和饱受战争蹂躏的地区。
05:20
to the most remote
and war-ravaged regions.
and war-ravaged regions.
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05:23
200 years ago, 90 percent
of the world's population
of the world's population
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200 年前，90 %的世界人口
05:26
subsisted in extreme poverty.
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处于极端贫困。
今天只有不到 10 %的人如此。
05:29
Today, fewer than 10 percent of people do.
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05:32
For most of human history,
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在人类大部分的历史中，
05:34
the powerful states and empires
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强大的国家和帝国
05:36
were pretty much always
at war with each other,
at war with each other,
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总是彼此交战，
05:38
and peace was a mere
interlude between wars.
interlude between wars.
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而和平只是战争之间的插曲。
05:42
Today, they are never
at war with each other.
at war with each other.
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今天，他们不再彼此开战。
05:44
The last great power war
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上一场大国之间的战争
05:46
pitted the United States
against China 65 years ago.
against China 65 years ago.
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发生在 65 年前的中国和美国。
05:50
More recently, wars of all kinds
have become fewer and less deadly.
have become fewer and less deadly.
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最近，各种各样的战争发生得
越来越少，伤亡人数也有所下降。
越来越少，伤亡人数也有所下降。
05:54
The annual rate of war has fallen from
about 22 per hundred thousand per year
about 22 per hundred thousand per year
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每年的战争死亡率
从 50 年代的 10 万分之 22
从 50 年代的 10 万分之 22
05:59
in the early '50s to 1.2 today.
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下降至今天的 10 万分之 1.2。
06:03
Democracy has suffered obvious setbacks
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民主在委内瑞拉，俄罗斯，土耳其
06:05
in Venezuela, in Russia, in Turkey
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遭受了明显的挫折，
06:09
and is threatened by the rise
of authoritarian populism
of authoritarian populism
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并在东欧和美国受到了
06:12
in Eastern Europe and the United States.
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来自独裁民粹主义崛起的威胁。
06:15
Yet the world has never been
more democratic
more democratic
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但是相比过去的时代，
06:17
than it has been in the past decade,
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世界从来没有如此民主，
06:19
with two-thirds of the world's people
living in democracies.
living in democracies.
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全球 2/3 的人口生活在民主国家。
06:24
Homicide rates plunge whenever anarchy
and the code of vendetta
and the code of vendetta
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每当无政府状态和仇杀行为
被法治取代时，
被法治取代时，
06:28
are replaced by the rule of law.
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凶杀犯罪率就会下降。
06:30
It happened when feudal Europe was brought
under the control of centralized kingdoms,
under the control of centralized kingdoms,
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这发生在封建的欧洲
被中央王国控制时，
被中央王国控制时，
06:35
so that today a Western European
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所以今天西欧人
06:37
has 1/35th the chance of being murdered
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被谋杀的几率是
06:39
compared to his medieval ancestors.
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他们中世纪祖先的 1/35。
06:42
It happened again in colonial New England,
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这也发生在新英格兰的殖民地，
06:44
in the American Wild West
when the sheriffs moved to town,
when the sheriffs moved to town,
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治安官进驻后的美国西部小镇，
06:48
and in Mexico.
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以及墨西哥等地。
06:50
Indeed, we've become safer
in just about every way.
in just about every way.
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我们的确在各个方面
都变得更安全了。
都变得更安全了。
06:54
Over the last century,
we've become 96 percent less likely
we've become 96 percent less likely
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上个世纪以来，
我们死于交通事故的概率
我们死于交通事故的概率
06:58
to be killed in a car crash,
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降低了 96 %。
07:00
88 percent less likely
to be mowed down on the sidewalk,
to be mowed down on the sidewalk,
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在人行道上被撞倒的概率
降低了88 %。
降低了88 %。
07:04
99 percent less likely
to die in a plane crash,
to die in a plane crash,
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飞机事故死亡率下降了 99 %。
07:08
95 percent less likely
to be killed on the job,
to be killed on the job,
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因公殉职的概率也降低了 95 %。
07:11
89 percent less likely
to be killed by an act of God,
to be killed by an act of God,
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死于大自然因素的
概率也降低了 89 %，
概率也降低了 89 %，
07:15
such as a drought, flood,
wildfire, storm, volcano,
wildfire, storm, volcano,
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比如干旱，洪水，野火，风暴，火山，
07:19
landslide, earthquake or meteor strike,
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山崩、地震或流星撞击。
07:22
presumably not because God
has become less angry with us
has become less angry with us
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应该不是因为
上帝对我们不再那么生气了，
上帝对我们不再那么生气了，
07:25
but because of improvements
in the resilience of our infrastructure.
in the resilience of our infrastructure.
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而是因为我们的基础设施的
应变能力提高了。
应变能力提高了。
07:30
And what about
the quintessential act of God,
the quintessential act of God,
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那么，典型的天灾，
07:33
the projectile hurled by Zeus himself?
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宙斯自己投掷的炮弹呢？
没错，我们被闪电击中的
概率降低了 97 %。
概率降低了 97 %。
07:36
Yes, we are 97 percent less likely
to be killed by a bolt of lightning.
to be killed by a bolt of lightning.
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07:43
Before the 17th century,
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17 世纪以前，
不到 15 %的欧洲人能读会写。
07:45
no more than 15 percent of Europeans
could read or write.
could read or write.
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07:48
Europe and the United States
achieved universal literacy
achieved universal literacy
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欧洲和美国在 20 世纪中叶
就消灭了文盲，
07:51
by the middle of the 20th century,
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07:53
and the rest of the world is catching up.
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世界其他地方也在陆续跟上。
07:56
Today, more than 90 percent
of the world's population
of the world's population
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今天，全球年龄在 25 岁以下的人中，
07:59
under the age of 25 can read and write.
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超过 90 %的人口能读会写。
08:03
In the 19th century, Westerners
worked more than 60 hours per week.
worked more than 60 hours per week.
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在 19 世纪，西方人每周工作时间
远远超过 60 个小时。
远远超过 60 个小时。
08:07
Today, they work fewer than 40.
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今天，这个数字已经低于 40 小时。
08:10
Thanks to the universal penetration
of running water and electricity
of running water and electricity
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得益于发达国家
自来水和电的普及，
08:14
in the developed world
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08:16
and the widespread adoption
of washing machines, vacuum cleaners,
of washing machines, vacuum cleaners,
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以及洗衣机，真空吸尘器，
08:20
refrigerators, dishwashers,
stoves and microwaves,
stoves and microwaves,
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冰箱、洗碗机、炉子和
微波炉的广泛使用，
微波炉的广泛使用，
08:24
the amount of our lives
that we forfeit to housework
that we forfeit to housework
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我们花费在家务上的时间
08:27
has fallen from 60 hours a week
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从一周 60 个小时
08:29
to fewer than 15 hours a week.
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下降至每周不到 15 小时。
08:32
Do all of these gains in health,
wealth, safety, knowledge and leisure
wealth, safety, knowledge and leisure
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在健康、财富、安全、知识
和休闲方面的这些进步
和休闲方面的这些进步
让我们更加幸福了吗？
08:37
make us any happier?
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08:39
The answer is yes.
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答案是肯定的。
08:40
In 86 percent of the world's countries,
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全球 86 %的国家中，
08:42
happiness has increased in recent decades.
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幸福指数在最近几十年来都在增长。
08:45
Well, I hope to have convinced you
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好了，我希望我已经说服你们
08:47
that progress is not a matter
of faith or optimism,
of faith or optimism,
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进步无关信念或乐观，
08:51
but is a fact of human history,
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而是人类历史的事实，
08:53
indeed the greatest fact in human history.
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确实是人类历史上最伟大的事实。
08:56
And how has this fact
been covered in the news?
been covered in the news?
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而这些事实是如何
被新闻媒体报道的呢？
被新闻媒体报道的呢？
08:59
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
09:03
A tabulation of positive and negative
emotion words in news stories
emotion words in news stories
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新闻故事中积极和消极的情绪词汇表
09:07
has shown that during the decades
in which humanity has gotten healthier,
in which humanity has gotten healthier,
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已证明，在过去几十年里
人类变得更健康，
人类变得更健康，
09:11
wealthier, wiser, safer and happier,
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更富有，更聪明，更安全，更快乐。
09:13
the "New York Times"
has become increasingly morose
has become increasingly morose
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《纽约时报》的措辞却变得越来越阴郁，
全球的广播节目的腔调
也变得越来越阴沉。
也变得越来越阴沉。
09:18
and the world's broadcasts too
have gotten steadily glummer.
have gotten steadily glummer.
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09:22
Why don't people appreciate progress?
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为什么人们不感激这些进步？
09:25
Part of the answer comes
from our cognitive psychology.
from our cognitive psychology.
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部分答案来自于我们的认知心理学。
09:28
We estimate risk using a mental shortcut
called the "availability heuristic."
called the "availability heuristic."
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我们用一个名为“可得性启发”的
心理捷径来估计危险。
心理捷径来估计危险。
09:33
The easier it is to recall
something from memory,
something from memory,
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一件越容易被回忆起来的事，
我们就越可能认为它就是那样。
09:36
the more probable we judge it to be.
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09:39
The other part of the answer
comes from the nature of journalism,
comes from the nature of journalism,
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另外一部分答案来自于新闻业的本质，
09:42
captured in this satirical headline
from "The Onion,"
from "The Onion,"
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这个讽刺性的头条取自“洋葱新闻“，
09:46
"CNN Holds Morning Meeting to Decide
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“美国有线电视新闻网 CNN 开早会决定
09:48
What Viewers Should
Panic About For Rest of Day."
Panic About For Rest of Day."
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观众在这一天应当对什么感到恐慌。“
09:50
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
09:52
(Applause)
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（掌声）
09:57
News is about stuff that happens,
not stuff that doesn't happen.
not stuff that doesn't happen.
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新闻是报道那些正在发生的事，
而不是没有发生的事。
而不是没有发生的事。
10:01
You never see a journalist who says,
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你从没见过一个记者说，
10:03
"I'm reporting live from a country
that has been at peace for 40 years,"
that has been at peace for 40 years,"
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4216
“我正在一个40年来
局势都很稳定的国家直播”，
局势都很稳定的国家直播”，
10:07
or a city that has not
been attacked by terrorists.
been attacked by terrorists.
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或者在一个从来没有被
恐怖分子袭击的城市直播。
恐怖分子袭击的城市直播。
10:10
Also, bad things can happen quickly,
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另外，坏事可能会瞬间发生，
10:13
but good things aren't built in a day.
191
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但是好事却不是一天能成的。
新闻媒体可以在
过去25年中。每天都使用
过去25年中。每天都使用
10:15
The papers could have run the headline,
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1896
10:17
"137,000 people escaped
from extreme poverty yesterday"
from extreme poverty yesterday"
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4376
“昨天有 13 万 7 千人脱离了极端贫困”
10:22
every day for the last 25 years.
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这个标题。
10:24
That's one and a quarter billion people
leaving poverty behind,
leaving poverty behind,
195
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4216
也就是说，总共有 12.5 亿人脱离了贫困，
10:29
but you never read about it.
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2016
但是你从来没有看到过这一条新闻。
10:31
Also, the news capitalizes
on our morbid interest
on our morbid interest
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而且，新闻报道还会利用我们对
哪里会出现问题的病态兴趣，
10:34
in what can go wrong,
198
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10:35
captured in the programming policy,
"If it bleeds, it leads."
"If it bleeds, it leads."
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4336
其规划政策是“越血腥越吸睛”。
10:40
Well, if you combine our cognitive biases
with the nature of news,
with the nature of news,
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如果将我们的认知偏差和
新闻的本质相结合，
新闻的本质相结合，
10:43
you can see why the world
has been coming to an end
has been coming to an end
201
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你就可以了解为什么这个世界
的确是在很久以前
就开始走向末日了。
就开始走向末日了。
10:46
for a very long time indeed.
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1960
10:50
Let me address
some questions about progress
some questions about progress
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让我提出几个关于进步的问题，
豪无疑问这些进步
在你们很多人身上都发生过。
在你们很多人身上都发生过。
10:52
that no doubt have occurred
to many of you.
to many of you.
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10:56
First, isn't it good to be pessimistic
205
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2736
首先，成为一个悲观主义者，
10:59
to safeguard against complacency,
206
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2416
可以防范自满、清清除糟粕，
11:01
to rake the muck, to speak truth to power?
207
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向当权者说实话，这有什么不好吗？
11:04
Well, not exactly.
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1976
其实，这样未必好。
11:06
It's good to be accurate.
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1976
能做到精确是很好的。
11:08
Of course we should be aware
of suffering and danger
of suffering and danger
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当然我们都应当知道
痛苦和危险发生的地方，
11:10
wherever they occur,
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11:12
but we should also be aware
of how they can be reduced,
of how they can be reduced,
212
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但是我们也应当知道
如何去减少它们。
如何去减少它们。
因为不分青红皂白的
悲观主义是危险的。
悲观主义是危险的。
11:15
because there are dangers
to indiscriminate pessimism.
to indiscriminate pessimism.
213
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11:18
One of them is fatalism.
214
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其中一个例子就是宿命论。
11:20
If all our efforts at improving the world
215
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如果我们所有
推动这个世界进步的努力
推动这个世界进步的努力
11:22
have been in vain,
216
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都是徒劳的，
11:23
why throw good money after bad?
217
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1856
为什么我们还要去做无用功？
11:25
The poor will always be with you.
218
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反正贫穷无论如何都会一直跟随你。
11:28
And since the world will end soon --
219
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并且既然这个世界
很快就要完蛋了——
很快就要完蛋了——
11:30
if climate change doesn't kill us all,
220
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1856
如果气候变化没有将我们全都干掉，
11:32
then runaway artificial
intelligence will --
intelligence will --
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那么失控的人工智能也会——
11:34
a natural response is
to enjoy life while we can,
to enjoy life while we can,
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自然的反应就是，乐在当下吧，
11:38
eat, drink and be merry,
for tomorrow we die.
for tomorrow we die.
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吃喝玩乐，同时坐以待毙。
11:42
The other danger of thoughtless
pessimism is radicalism.
pessimism is radicalism.
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轻率的悲观主义的
另一个危险是激进主义。
另一个危险是激进主义。
11:46
If our institutions are all failing
and beyond hope for reform,
and beyond hope for reform,
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694160
4016
如果我们的机构都失败了，
改革的希望也破灭了，
改革的希望也破灭了，
11:50
a natural response
is to seek to smash the machine,
is to seek to smash the machine,
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自然的反应就是砸烂机器，
11:53
drain the swamp,
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1216
抽干沼泽，
11:55
burn the empire to the ground,
228
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1776
把帝国烧成灰烬，
11:56
on the hope that whatever
rises out of the ashes
rises out of the ashes
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抱着灰烬中无论长出什么
12:00
is bound to be better
than what we have now.
than what we have now.
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都要好于当下的幻想。
12:03
Well, if there is
such a thing as progress,
such a thing as progress,
231
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那么，如果真的有进步这个东西，
12:06
what causes it?
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是什么导致了进步呢？
12:07
Progress is not some mystical force
or dialectic lifting us ever higher.
or dialectic lifting us ever higher.
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5176
进步并不是某种神秘力量或辩证法，
可以将我们推向更高的境界。
可以将我们推向更高的境界。
12:12
It's not a mysterious arc of history
bending toward justice.
bending toward justice.
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它不是一条屈服于正义的神秘弧线。
12:16
It's the result of human efforts
governed by an idea,
governed by an idea,
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3736
进步是人类在一种思想
指引下努力的结果。
指引下努力的结果。
12:19
an idea that we associate
with the 18th century Enlightenment,
with the 18th century Enlightenment,
236
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4016
这个思想与 18 世纪的启蒙运动有关，
12:23
namely that if we apply reason and science
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4336
那就是，如果我们运用理性和科学
12:28
that enhance human well-being,
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来提高人类的幸福水平，
12:30
we can gradually succeed.
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我们就可以逐渐取得成功。
12:32
Is progress inevitable? Of course not.
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进步是不可避免的吗?
当然不是。
当然不是。
12:36
Progress does not mean
that everything becomes better
that everything becomes better
241
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3016
进步并不意味着所有人在任何地方，
任何时候都能变得更好。
12:39
for everyone everywhere all the time.
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2936
12:42
That would be a miracle,
and progress is not a miracle
and progress is not a miracle
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那就算得上是一个奇迹，
但进步并不是奇迹，
但进步并不是奇迹，
12:45
but problem-solving.
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1200
而是解决问题的过程。
12:47
Problems are inevitable
245
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问题不可避免，
12:49
and solutions create new problems
which have to be solved in their turn.
which have to be solved in their turn.
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3680
解决问题的方案还会带来新的问题，
这些问题在未来必须解决。
这些问题在未来必须解决。
12:53
The unsolved problems
facing the world today are gargantuan,
facing the world today are gargantuan,
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当今世界面临的
未解决的问题是巨大的，
未解决的问题是巨大的，
12:57
including the risks of climate change
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2776
包括气候变化
13:00
and nuclear war,
249
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1616
和核武战争的风险。
13:01
but we must see them
as problems to be solved,
as problems to be solved,
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2536
我们必须将其视为需要解决的问题，
13:04
not apocalypses in waiting,
251
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不能坐以待毙，
13:06
and aggressively pursue solutions
252
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2256
而要积极寻求解决之道，
13:09
like Deep Decarbonization
for climate change
for climate change
253
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2856
比如以深脱碳技术对应气候变化，
13:12
and Global Zero for nuclear war.
254
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2200
和全球零核战。
13:15
Finally, does the Enlightenment
go against human nature?
go against human nature?
255
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3896
最后一点，启蒙运动
是否违背了人类的本性？
是否违背了人类的本性？
13:19
This is an acute question for me,
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这对我来说是个尖锐的问题，
13:22
because I'm a prominent advocate
of the existence of human nature,
of the existence of human nature,
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3416
因为我是人类本性天然存在
这一观点的主要倡导者，
这一观点的主要倡导者，
13:25
with all its shortcomings
and perversities.
and perversities.
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3416
尽管其中存在许多的缺点和不足。
13:28
In my book "The Blank Slate,"
259
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1416
在我的书《白板》中，
13:30
I argued that the human prospect
is more tragic than utopian
is more tragic than utopian
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4136
我认为人类的前景比乌托邦更悲惨，
13:34
and that we are not stardust,
we are not golden
we are not golden
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2736
我们不是星尘，我们不是金色的，
13:37
and there's no way
we are getting back to the garden.
we are getting back to the garden.
262
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2536
我们不可能回到伊甸园。
13:39
(Laughter)
263
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2496
（笑声）
13:42
But my worldview has lightened up
264
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2296
但是我的世界观
13:44
in the 15 years since
"The Blank Slate" was published.
"The Blank Slate" was published.
265
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2936
随着 15 年前《白板》的出版改变了。
13:47
My acquaintance with
the statistics of human progress,
the statistics of human progress,
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2936
我对人类进步的统计数据的接触——
13:50
starting with violence
267
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1336
从暴力开始，
13:51
but now encompassing
every other aspect of our well-being,
every other aspect of our well-being,
268
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3776
到现在涵盖了我们幸福的每一个方面——
13:55
has fortified my belief
269
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1576
强化了我的信念，
13:57
that in understanding
our tribulations and woes,
our tribulations and woes,
270
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3176
即我们的困难和困境，
14:00
human nature is the problem,
271
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1776
人性是主要的问题，
14:02
but human nature, channeled
by Enlightenment norms and institutions,
by Enlightenment norms and institutions,
272
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4336
但是人性，在启蒙运动的
规范和制度引导下，
规范和制度引导下，
14:06
is also the solution.
273
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1200
也可以是解决方案。
14:09
Admittedly, it's not easy
to replicate my own data-driven epiphany
to replicate my own data-driven epiphany
274
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4896
不可否认，让人类普遍复制
我通过数据得到的洞察
我通过数据得到的洞察
14:14
with humanity at large.
275
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2336
并不容易。
14:16
Some intellectuals have responded
276
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1816
有些学者愤怒地反击
14:18
with fury to my book "Enlightenment Now,"
277
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2696
我的书《当下的启蒙》说：
14:21
saying first how dare he claim
that intellectuals hate progress,
that intellectuals hate progress,
278
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4256
首先，他怎么敢宣称
知识分子痛恨进步，
知识分子痛恨进步，
14:25
and second, how dare he claim
that there has been progress.
that there has been progress.
279
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第二，他怎么敢宣称
世界已经取得了进步。
世界已经取得了进步。
14:28
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
14:32
With others, the idea of progress
just leaves them cold.
just leaves them cold.
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和其他人一样，
进步的概念对他们毫无意义。
进步的概念对他们毫无意义。
14:35
Saving the lives of billions,
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拯救数十亿人的生命，
14:37
eradicating disease, feeding the hungry,
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消灭疾病，养活饥民，
14:40
teaching kids to read?
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教孩子识字？
14:42
Boring.
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太无聊了。
14:44
At the same time, the most common response
I have received from readers is gratitude,
I have received from readers is gratitude,
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同时，我得到的最常见的
反馈是读者的感谢，
反馈是读者的感谢，
14:49
gratitude for changing
their view of the world
their view of the world
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为改变了他们对世界的看法而感激，
14:51
from a numb and helpless fatalism
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从麻木和无助的宿命论
14:54
to something more constructive,
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变得更具建设性，
14:55
even heroic.
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甚至更英勇。
14:57
I believe that the ideals
of the Enlightenment
of the Enlightenment
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我相信启蒙运动的理想
14:59
can be cast a stirring narrative,
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可以是一种激动人心的叙述。
15:01
and I hope that people
with greater artistic flare
with greater artistic flare
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我希望那些比我拥有
更丰富的艺术灵感
更丰富的艺术灵感
15:04
and rhetorical power than I
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和修辞力量的人，
15:06
can tell it better and spread it further.
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能够把这个故事讲述得更好，
并传播得更远。
并传播得更远。
15:09
It goes something like this.
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听起来就像这样：
15:12
We are born into a pitiless universe,
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我们生于无情的宇宙，
15:14
facing steep odds
against life-enabling order
against life-enabling order
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面对着维持生命秩序的巨大挑战，
15:18
and in constant jeopardy of falling apart.
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并不断陷入分裂的危险之中。
15:21
We were shaped by a process
that is ruthlessly competitive.
that is ruthlessly competitive.
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我们成长于残酷的竞争过程。
15:25
We are made from crooked timber,
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我们是弯木头做的，
15:27
vulnerable to illusions, self-centeredness
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容易幻想，以自我为中心，
15:30
and at times astounding stupidity.
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有时愚蠢到令人发指。
15:33
Yet human nature has also
been blessed with resources
been blessed with resources
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然而，人类本性也被赋予了资源，
15:36
that open a space
for a kind of redemption.
for a kind of redemption.
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为一种救赎打开了空间。
15:39
We are endowed with the power
to combine ideas recursively,
to combine ideas recursively,
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我们被赋予了以递归的方式
组合思想的力量，
组合思想的力量，
15:42
to have thoughts about our thoughts.
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能够对个人的想法进行自省。
15:45
We have an instinct for language,
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我们有语言的本能，
15:47
allowing us to share the fruits
of our ingenuity and experience.
of our ingenuity and experience.
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让我们可以分享智慧和经验成果。
15:51
We are deepened
with the capacity for sympathy,
with the capacity for sympathy,
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我们因拥有怜悯、想象、
15:54
for pity, imagination,
compassion, commiseration.
compassion, commiseration.
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慈悲、同理心的能力而深化。
15:59
These endowments have found ways
to magnify their own power.
to magnify their own power.
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这些天赐的能力也找到了
扩大其作用的方法。
扩大其作用的方法。
16:03
The scope of language has been augmented
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语言的覆盖范围因手写，
16:05
by the written, printed
and electronic word.
and electronic word.
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印刷和电子文字而增加。
16:09
Our circle of sympathy has been expanded
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我们的同情圈
因历史，新闻和叙事艺术而扩大。
16:11
by history, journalism
and the narrative arts.
and the narrative arts.
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16:15
And our puny rational faculties
have been multiplied
have been multiplied
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通过理性的规范和制度，
16:18
by the norms and institutions of reason,
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好奇心，公开辩论，
16:20
intellectual curiosity, open debate,
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对权威和教条的怀疑，
16:24
skepticism of authority and dogma
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以及与现实对抗来验证想法的举证责任，
16:26
and the burden of proof to verify ideas
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我们微小的理性思考能力
16:29
by confronting them against reality.
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就会成倍增加。
16:32
As the spiral of recursive improvement
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随着递归改进的螺旋上升的
16:34
gathers momentum,
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势头不断增强，
16:36
we eke out victories
against the forces that grind us down,
against the forces that grind us down,
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3536
我们战胜了让我们沮丧的力量，
16:40
not least the darker parts
of our own nature.
of our own nature.
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3256
尤其是本性中较黑暗的部分。
16:43
We penetrate the mysteries
of the cosmos, including life and mind.
of the cosmos, including life and mind.
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我们深入宇宙的奥秘，
包括生命和心灵。
包括生命和心灵。
16:48
We live longer, suffer less, learn more,
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我们活得更久，遭遇更少，学得更多，
16:52
get smarter and enjoy more small pleasures
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变得更聪明，享受更多的小乐趣
16:54
and rich experiences.
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以及更丰富的体验。
16:57
Fewer of us are killed,
assaulted, enslaved, exploited
assaulted, enslaved, exploited
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更少的人被杀害，被袭击，
被奴役，被剥削，
被奴役，被剥削，
17:01
or oppressed by the others.
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或被人压迫。
17:03
From a few oases, the territories
with peace and prosperity are growing
with peace and prosperity are growing
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从最初的几块绿洲，
和平与繁荣的领土正在增长，
和平与繁荣的领土正在增长，
17:08
and could someday encompass the globe.
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终有一天，世界将会被其包围。
17:11
Much suffering remains
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苦难依旧，
17:13
and tremendous peril,
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危险尚存，
17:15
but ideas on how to reduce them
have been voiced,
have been voiced,
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但减少它们的方法已经被提出，
17:18
and an infinite number of others
are yet to be conceived.
are yet to be conceived.
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还有无数其他的方法仍在孕育中。
17:22
We will never have a perfect world,
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我们永远不会拥有完美的世界，
17:24
and it would be dangerous to seek one.
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寻找完美世界的过程危机重重。
17:26
But there's no limit
to the betterments we can attain
to the betterments we can attain
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2535
如果我们继续将知识用于人类福祉，
17:29
if we continue to apply knowledge
to enhance human flourishing.
to enhance human flourishing.
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3879
就会源源不断的获得更美好的东西。
17:34
This heroic story
is not just another myth.
is not just another myth.
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这个英雄故事不是另一个神话。
17:37
Myths are fictions, but this one is true,
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神话是虚构的，但这是真的。
17:41
true to the best of our knowledge,
which is the only truth we can have.
which is the only truth we can have.
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这是我们所知道的最好的真理，
也是我们唯一能拥有的真理。
也是我们唯一能拥有的真理。
17:44
As we learn more,
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当我们懂得更多，
17:46
we can show which parts of the story
continue to be true and which ones false,
continue to be true and which ones false,
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4456
我们就可以展示故事的哪些部分
继续为真，哪些为假，
继续为真，哪些为假，
17:50
as any of them might be
and any could become.
and any could become.
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而这一结果是随机的。
17:54
And this story belongs not to any tribe
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这个故事不属于任何一个部落，
17:56
but to all of humanity,
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而属于全人类，
17:58
to any sentient creature
with the power of reason
with the power of reason
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属于任何拥有离职和情感，
18:02
and the urge to persist in its being,
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以及维系自己生命的欲望的生物。
18:05
for it requires only the convictions
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因为它只需要相信
18:07
that life is better than death,
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活着好过死亡，
18:09
health is better than sickness,
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健康好过疾病，
18:11
abundance is better than want,
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富足好于渴求，
18:13
freedom is better than coercion,
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自由好于强迫，
18:16
happiness is better than suffering
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幸福好于痛苦，
18:18
and knowledge is better
than ignorance and superstition.
than ignorance and superstition.
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知识胜于无知和迷信。
18:22
Thank you.
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谢谢。
18:23
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Pinker - PsychologistSteven Pinker is a professor of cognitive science (the study of the human mind) who writes about language, mind and human nature.
Why you should listen
Steven Pinker grew up in the English-speaking community of Montreal but has spent his adult life bouncing back and forth between Harvard and MIT. He is interested in all aspects of human nature: how we see, hear, think, speak, remember, feel and interact.
To be specific: he developed the first comprehensive theory of language acquisition in children, used verb meaning as a window into cognition, probed the limits of neural networks and showed how the interaction between memory and computation shapes language. He has used evolution to illuminate innuendo, emotional expression and social coordination. He has documented historical declines in violence and explained them in terms of the ways that the violent and peaceable components of human nature interact in different eras. He has written books on the language instinct, how the mind works, the stuff of thought and the doctrine of the blank slate, together with a guide to stylish writing that is rooted in psychology.
In his latest book, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress, he writes about progress -- why people are healthier, richer, safer, happier and better educated than ever. His other books include The Language Instinct, How the Mind Works, The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature, The Stuff of Thought, and The Better Angels of Our Nature.
Steven Pinker | Speaker | TED.com