TEDGlobal 2012
Clay Shirky: How the Internet will (one day) transform government
克雷。夏尔基：互联网将如何（在某一天）转变政府
Filmed:
Readability: 4.4
1,294,633 views
开放资源的世界已学会了如何使用像Github一样的网络托管服务去处理大量新的，通常分歧的想法 - 那么，为什么政府不能呢？在这个热烈的探讨中，克雷。夏尔基展示了民主国家该如何向互联网学习，变的不仅仅应当是透明度，并更应当同时从所有公民中汲取知识。
Clay Shirky - Social Media Theorist
Clay Shirky argues that the history of the modern world could be rendered as the history of ways of arguing, where changes in media change what sort of arguments are possible -- with deep social and political implications. Full bio
Clay Shirky argues that the history of the modern world could be rendered as the history of ways of arguing, where changes in media change what sort of arguments are possible -- with deep social and political implications. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I want to talk to you today about something
0
276
1945
今天我想要探讨一些事情
00:18
the open-source programming world can teach democracy,
1
2221
3015
从开放代码的网络世界中感受民主
00:21
but before that, a little preamble.
2
5236
1635
在此之前，先来点开胃菜
00:22
Let's start here.
3
6871
1820
我们以此开始
00:24
This is Martha Payne. Martha's a 9-year-old Scot
4
8691
3395
这是玛莎。佩恩，一个九岁的苏格兰小女孩
00:27
who lives in the Council of Argyll and Bute.
5
12086
2021
她住在阿盖尔-比特区的康斯尔
00:30
A couple months ago, Payne started a food blog
6
14107
2693
几个月前，佩恩开了一个关于美食的博客
00:32
called NeverSeconds, and she would take her camera
7
16800
2873
叫做“独一无二”，然后她每天…
00:35
with her every day to school to document
8
19673
2280
都带着相机去学校，记录下
00:37
her school lunches.
9
21953
2014
学校的午餐
00:39
Can you spot the vegetable? (Laughter)
10
23967
1889
你能辨认出蔬菜吗？
00:41
And, as sometimes happens,
11
25856
3754
然后，发生了一些有意思的事，
00:45
this blog acquired first dozens of readers,
12
29610
2590
刚开始她的博客吸引了十几个读者
00:48
and then hundreds of readers,
13
32200
1680
然后有了几百个读者
00:49
and then thousands of readers, as people tuned in
14
33880
2586
然后又有了几千个读者，人们乐于
00:52
to watch her rate her school lunches,
15
36466
1668
看她对学校午餐的评价
00:54
including on my favorite category,
16
38134
1525
包括我最爱做的事之一
00:55
"Pieces of hair found in food." (Laughter)
17
39659
3592
”食物里有几根头发“（笑声）
00:59
This was a zero day. That's good.
18
43251
3471
这天的午餐得到零分。幸好
01:02
And then two weeks ago yesterday, she posted this.
19
46722
3194
然而，两周前的一天，她发了一篇日志
01:05
A post that read: "Goodbye."
20
49916
1911
日志里写到：“再见了”
01:07
And she said, "I'm very sorry to tell you this, but
21
51827
3214
然后她说：很抱歉的告诉你们，但是
01:10
my head teacher pulled me out of class today and told me
22
55041
2744
我的班主任把我叫出教室，告诉我
01:13
I'm not allowed to take pictures in the lunch room anymore.
23
57785
2996
我被禁止在食堂里拍照
01:16
I really enjoyed doing this.
24
60781
1726
我真的很喜欢做这件事
01:18
Thank you for reading. Goodbye."
25
62507
3230
感谢你们的浏览，再见了
01:21
You can guess what happened next, right? (Laughter)
26
65737
5178
你们可以猜到后来发生了什么，是吧？
01:26
The outrage was so swift, so voluminous, so unanimous,
27
70915
5918
民愤一瞬间就被点燃了，一时间群情激愤，各种谴责不绝于耳，
01:32
that the Council of Argyll and Bute reversed themselves
28
76833
2931
当局随之撤销了之前的决定
01:35
the same day and said, "We would,
29
79779
1286
就是在同一天，他们辩解到：我们绝对…
01:36
we would never censor a nine-year-old." (Laughter)
30
81065
2166
绝对不会审查一个九岁小孩的博客
01:39
Except, of course, this morning. (Laughter)
31
83231
2477
当然，除了今天早上
01:41
And this brings up the question,
32
85708
4413
这就产生了一个问题
01:46
what made them think they could get away
33
90121
2214
他们凭什么认为
01:48
with something like that? (Laughter)
34
92335
2050
他们能逃避这样的事
01:50
And the answer is, all of human history prior to now.
35
94385
4717
答案就是，人类自古以来就是如此
01:55
(Laughter) So,
36
99102
3548
所以
01:58
what happens when a medium suddenly puts
37
102650
3925
当媒体突然把一堆新观点公之于众的时候
02:02
a lot of new ideas into circulation?
38
106575
3704
会发生一些什么
02:06
Now, this isn't just a contemporaneous question.
39
110279
2105
如今，这不是当代才有的问题
02:08
This is something we've faced several times
40
112384
2000
这个问题在过去的几个世纪里
02:10
over the last few centuries.
41
114384
1356
我们已经面对了无数次
02:11
When the telegraph came along, it was clear
42
115740
1985
当电报问世的时候，很明显…
02:13
that it was going to globalize the news industry.
43
117725
2218
它意味着全球化新闻产业
02:15
What would this lead to?
44
119943
1489
这会带来什么？
02:17
Well, obviously, it would lead to world peace.
45
121432
3564
很显然，这一定会让世界和平
02:20
The television, a medium that allowed us not just to hear
46
124996
2810
电视作为一个媒介，不仅让我们听世界
02:23
but see, literally see, what was going on
47
127806
2767
还有看世界，是直接地看到世界上…
02:26
elsewhere in the world, what would this lead to?
48
130573
2317
正在发生着什么，这些事件又导致了什么？
02:28
World peace. (Laughter)
49
132890
2240
就是世界和平
02:31
The telephone?
50
135130
957
那么电话呢？
02:31
You guessed it: world peace.
51
136087
2595
你猜得没错：世界和平
02:34
Sorry for the spoiler alert, but no world peace. Not yet.
52
138682
4974
抱歉剧透了，但是世界尚未和平，暂时还没有
02:39
Even the printing press, even the printing press
53
143656
2479
甚至还有印刷机
02:42
was assumed to be a tool that was going to enforce
54
146135
3129
被视为促使天主教知识霸权
02:45
Catholic intellectual hegemony across Europe.
55
149264
3653
散布到欧洲的工具
02:48
Instead, what we got was Martin Luther's 95 Theses,
56
152917
2484
但是由此，我们得到的却是《马丁.路德的95条论纲》
02:51
the Protestant Reformation, and, you know,
57
155401
2020
新教改革，你知道的…
02:53
the Thirty Years' War. All right,
58
157421
2358
三十年的战争，对吧，
02:55
so what all of these predictions of world peace got right
59
159779
4231
那么世界和平的预言有多少可信？
02:59
is that when a lot of new ideas suddenly
60
164010
2531
只有许多的新观念迅速地
03:02
come into circulation, it changes society.
61
166541
2926
开始被传播，社会才会改变
03:05
What they got exactly wrong was what happens next.
62
169467
3532
但他们想错的是接下来发生的事
03:08
The more ideas there are in circulation,
63
172999
2549
越多的观点被传播
03:11
the more ideas there are for any individual to disagree with.
64
175548
4708
就意味着更多的观点被反对
03:16
More media always means more arguing.
65
180256
4773
媒体越多，争议越多
03:20
That's what happens when the media's space expands.
66
185029
2920
这就是媒体扩张时代带来的结果
03:23
And yet, when we look back on the printing press
67
187949
2903
然后我们回首一下印刷机的时代
03:26
in the early years, we like what happened.
68
190852
3379
在过去的日子里，我们挺喜欢所发生的事情
03:30
We are a pro-printing press society.
69
194231
3244
我们处在一个速印时代。
03:33
So how do we square those two things,
70
197475
1970
所以，我们如何平衡这两件事：
03:35
that it leads to more arguing, but we think it was good?
71
199445
2756
更多争议；但我们认为这有益社会
03:38
And the answer, I think, can be found in things like this.
72
202201
2599
至于答案，我想可以通过这样的事情来得出
03:40
This is the cover of "Philosophical Transactions,"
73
204800
3285
这是《哲学学报》
03:43
the first scientific journal ever published in English
74
208085
2622
第一本英语的科学读物
03:46
in the middle of the 1600s,
75
210707
1882
发行于16世纪中期
03:48
and it was created by a group of people who had been
76
212589
1827
”它由一个自称为隐形
03:50
calling themselves "The Invisible College,"
77
214416
1637
隐形学院“的团体创办
03:51
a group of natural philosophers who only later
78
216053
2204
这群自然派哲学家
03:54
would call themselves scientists,
79
218257
2605
后来称自己为科学家
03:56
and they wanted to improve the way
80
220862
3544
他们致力于提升
04:00
natural philosophers argued with each other,
81
224406
2657
自然派哲学家之间争辩的方式
04:02
and they needed to do two things for this.
82
227063
1990
他们需要做的有两件事
04:04
They needed openness. They needed to create a norm
83
229053
2484
他们需要开诚公布，他们需要创造基准
04:07
which said, when you do an experiment,
84
231537
1859
换句话说，当你要进行一个实验的时候
04:09
you have to publish not just your claims,
85
233396
2685
你不能只是公开你的结论
04:11
but how you did the experiment.
86
236081
1426
也要公开实验的过程
04:13
If you don't tell us how you did it, we won't trust you.
87
237507
2797
如果你不告诉我们你做了什么，我们就无法信任你
04:16
But the other thing they needed was speed.
88
240304
2360
另一件他们所需的事情，就是速度
04:18
They had to quickly synchronize what
89
242664
2305
他们必须同步掌握
04:20
other natural philosophers knew. Otherwise,
90
244969
2454
其他自然派科学家的资讯，否则
04:23
you couldn't get the right kind of argument going.
91
247423
2857
你就会错过正在开展的辩论
04:26
The printing press was clearly the right medium for this,
92
250280
2950
印刷是一个清楚传达信息的正确媒介
04:29
but the book was the wrong tool. It was too slow.
93
253230
2586
但是书籍却是一个错误的工具。传播得太慢
04:31
And so they invented the scientific journal
94
255816
2862
所以他们创造了科学期刊
04:34
as a way of synchronizing the argument
95
258678
2786
借此来传播自然派科学家
04:37
across the community of natural scientists.
96
261464
2554
对于社会的争辩
04:39
The scientific revolution wasn't created by the printing press.
97
264018
3498
科学革命不是因为印刷机而起的
04:43
It was created by scientists,
98
267516
2146
是因为科学家而起的
04:45
but it couldn't have been created if they didn't have
99
269662
1859
但是如果没有印刷机这个工具
04:47
a printing press as a tool.
100
271521
2170
这场革命也不可能兴起
04:49
So what about us? What about our generation,
101
273691
2240
那么我们呢？我们这一代
04:51
and our media revolution, the Internet?
102
275931
2003
我们的传媒革命呢，互联网？
04:53
Well, predictions of world peace? Check. (Laughter)
103
277934
4119
那么，对于世界和平的预测呢？当然！
04:57
More arguing? Gold star on that one. (Laughter)
104
282053
8583
更多的争论？这个观点可以加一颗星！（笑声）
05:06
(Laughter)
105
290636
1311
（笑声）
05:07
I mean, YouTube is just a gold mine. (Laughter)
106
291947
4347
我的意思是，YouTube就是一个金库（笑声）
05:12
Better arguing? That's the question.
107
296294
4095
更好地争辩？这也是一个问题
05:16
So I study social media, which means,
108
300389
2044
我所研究的社会传媒学
05:18
to a first approximation, I watch people argue.
109
302433
2611
最接近的解释就是：我从旁观察人们的争论
05:20
And if I had to pick a group that I think is
110
305044
4107
如果我要选择一个群体，代表
05:25
our Invisible College, is our generation's collection of people
111
309151
3793
我们这一代的隐形学院，那么他们
05:28
trying to take these tools and to press it into service,
112
312944
3159
尝试使用各种工具
05:32
not for more arguments, but for better arguments,
113
316103
2781
并不是为了更多的争论，而是更有益的争论
05:34
I'd pick the open-source programmers.
114
318884
2395
我选择了开放源代码的程序
05:37
Programming is a three-way relationship
115
321279
2262
这个程序有一个三方的关联
05:39
between a programmer, some source code,
116
323541
2284
有程序设计师还有一些源代码
05:41
and the computer it's meant to run on, but computers
117
325825
2614
以及电脑的运行，不过电脑
05:44
are such famously inflexible interpreters of instructions
118
328439
4702
需要固定的程式还进行解读和操作
05:49
that it's extraordinarily difficult to write out a set
119
333141
4023
所以要明确写出一套让电脑知道如何去运行的程序
05:53
of instructions that the computer knows how to execute,
120
337164
3038
真的很难很难很难
05:56
and that's if one person is writing it.
121
340202
1866
尤其是当这仅由一个人去撰写的时候
05:57
Once you get more than one person writing it,
122
342068
2099
当撰写程序的人超过一个的时候
06:00
it's very easy for any two programmers to overwrite
123
344167
3084
如果他们用相同文件进行操作，要写出2个程序或者
06:03
each other's work if they're working on the same file,
124
347251
2661
互相充实各自的程序会变得很容易
06:05
or to send incompatible instructions
125
349912
2182
否则传输一个没有完成的程序
06:07
that simply causes the computer to choke,
126
352094
2441
很容让电脑当机
06:10
and this problem grows larger
127
354535
2959
问题会变得很严重
06:13
the more programmers are involved.
128
357494
2769
会有更多的程序被牵连其中
06:16
To a first approximation, the problem of managing
129
360263
3347
最近有一次，有一个大型的管理软件
06:19
a large software project is the problem
130
363610
2726
产生了一点问题
06:22
of keeping this social chaos at bay.
131
366336
3656
在海湾区造成了社会的动乱
06:25
Now, for decades there has been a canonical solution
132
369992
2475
如今的几十年里，有一个标准的
06:28
to this problem, which is to use something called
133
372467
1654
解决问题的办法，就是使用 “视频监控系统”
06:30
a "version control system,"
134
374121
1980
“视频监控系统”
06:32
and a version control system does what is says on the tin.
135
376101
2209
这个系统会丝毫不差地做你要它做的事
06:34
It provides a canonical copy of the software
136
378310
3394
它能提供在服务器上
06:37
on a server somewhere.
137
381704
1552
软件运行的备份
06:39
The only programmers who can change it are people
138
383256
2906
唯一能能对此系统作出调整的程预员
06:42
who've specifically been given permission to access it,
139
386162
3531
只能是有特别受权的人
06:45
and they're only allowed to access the sub-section of it
140
389693
3767
他们也只被允许去读取子部分的档案
06:49
that they have permission to change.
141
393460
2430
他们也要被授权去进行修改
06:51
And when people draw diagrams of version control systems,
142
395890
3185
人们把系统运行的图示画出来
06:54
the diagrams always look something like this.
143
399075
2365
就好像这样
06:57
All right. They look like org charts.
144
401440
2878
类似于组织结构图
07:00
And you don't have to squint very hard
145
404318
1407
其实不用很费力地
07:01
to see the political ramifications of a system like this.
146
405725
3465
你就可以看出这个系统产生的社会分流
07:05
This is feudalism: one owner, many workers.
147
409190
4476
这其实就是封建制度：一个所有者，无数工人
07:09
Now, that's fine for the commercial software industry.
148
413666
3324
对于商务软件产业来说这都是可行的
07:12
It really is Microsoft's Office. It's Adobe's Photoshop.
149
416990
5390
必然微软，即以Adobe公司的Photoshop
07:18
The corporation owns the software.
150
422380
2832
集团企业拥有这些软件
07:21
The programmers come and go.
151
425212
2314
程序员却是进进出出
07:23
But there was one programmer who decided
152
427526
3373
但是有一个程序员决定
07:26
that this wasn't the way to work.
153
430899
2988
工作不应该这样
07:29
This is Linus Torvalds.
154
433887
1262
这个人就是林納斯.托瓦茲
07:31
Torvalds is the most famous open-source programmer,
155
435149
2152
托瓦茲是著名的开放源代码的程序员
07:33
created Linux, obviously, and Torvalds looked at the way
156
437301
5301
开发了Linux操作协同，很显然，托瓦茲着眼于
07:38
the open-source movement had been dealing with this problem.
157
442602
3512
用开放源代码举动来处理这个问题
07:42
Open-source software, the core promise of the open-source license,
158
446114
4624
开放了源代码的软件，其核心就是授权
07:46
is that everybody should have access to all the source code
159
450738
3746
是不是每一个人都可以使用开放的源代码
07:50
all the time, but of course, this creates
160
454484
3253
随时随地都可以？当然了，这样的创举
07:53
the very threat of chaos you have to forestall
161
457737
3307
也有可能在你试图让程序运作的时候
07:56
in order to get anything working.
162
461044
1578
带来极大的混乱
07:58
So most open-source projects just held their noses
163
462622
2482
所以，大部分开放源代码的程序，硬着头皮地
08:01
and adopted the feudal management systems.
164
465104
2680
采用封闭管理系统。
08:03
But Torvalds said, "No, I'm not going to do that."
165
467784
2508
托瓦茲说：我绝不会这么做
08:06
His point of view on this was very clear.
166
470292
3565
他的观点非常明确
08:09
When you adopt a tool, you also adopt
167
473857
2533
当你接受使用一种工具，你也要接受
08:12
the management philosophy embedded in that tool,
168
476390
3589
这种工具所包含的管理理念
08:15
and he wasn't going to adopt anything that didn't work
169
479979
3136
他不会接受没有操作性的方式
08:19
the way the Linux community worked.
170
483115
2309
而Linux操作系统却得到实现了
08:21
And to give you a sense of how enormous
171
485424
2532
为了让你们更直接的感受到
08:23
a decision like this was, this is a map
172
487956
3668
这样的决定带来的巨大影响，这里有一张地图
08:27
of the internal dependencies within Linux,
173
491624
3489
显示了Linux的内部关系
08:31
within the Linux operating system, which sub-parts
174
495113
2607
在Linux系统运行的时候，一个个子部门…
08:33
of the program rely on which other sub-parts to get going.
175
497720
4445
都依赖于另一些子部门才能运作
08:38
This is a tremendously complicated process.
176
502165
3578
这是极其庞大而复杂的工序
08:41
This is a tremendously complicated program,
177
505743
2792
这是极其庞大而复杂的程序
08:44
and yet, for years, Torvalds ran this
178
508535
2665
很多年下来，托瓦茲在运营这个系统
08:47
not with automated tools but out of his email box.
179
511200
3904
并不是使用自动化的工具，而是他的电子邮箱
08:51
People would literally mail him changes
180
515104
2473
人们会把每一个他们所认同地改变逐字逐句写给他
08:53
that they'd agreed on, and he would merge them by hand.
181
517577
4119
然后他会自己着手去合并这些改变。
08:57
And then, 15 years after looking at Linux and figuring out
182
521696
4746
十五年后，回顾Linux的运行
09:02
how the community worked, he said, "I think I know
183
526442
2810
他指出：我想我知道了
09:05
how to write a version control system for free people."
184
529252
4167
如何撰写一个版本控制系统，让人们去免费使用
09:09
And he called it "Git." Git is distributed version control.
185
533419
5895
他称之为Git，即分布式版本控制系统
09:15
It has two big differences
186
539314
3024
它与传统的版本控制系统
09:18
with traditional version control systems.
187
542338
2063
有两大不同
09:20
The first is that it lives up to the philosophical promise
188
544401
3147
首先他要遵守一个理念
09:23
of open-source. Everybody who works on a project
189
547548
3286
就是开放源代码，每一个为此项目工作的人
09:26
has access to all of the source code all of the time.
190
550834
3671
都可以随时使用全部的代码
09:30
And when people draw diagrams of Git workflow,
191
554505
2674
当人们绘制Git流程图的时候
09:33
they use drawings that look like this.
192
557179
2937
就会像这样
09:36
And you don't have to understand what the circles
193
560116
2318
你必须要理解这些循环
09:38
and boxes and arrows mean to see that this is a far more
194
562434
3679
方块和箭头的意义，这远远比
09:42
complicated way of working than is supported
195
566113
3095
传统的版本控制系统
09:45
by ordinary version control systems.
196
569208
2721
要复杂的多
09:47
But this is also the thing that brings the chaos back,
197
571929
4309
当然也会带来一些混乱
09:52
and this is Git's second big innovation.
198
576238
3050
这就是Git的第二个改革
09:55
This is a screenshot from GitHub, the premier Git hosting service,
199
579288
3996
这是GitHub的截图，这是Git的首要主机伺服
09:59
and every time a programmer uses Git
200
583284
3350
每当程序员使用Git
10:02
to make any important change at all,
201
586634
3161
去进行任何改变
10:05
creating a new file, modifying an existing one,
202
589795
3309
都会构建新的文件，修改现存文件
10:09
merging two files, Git creates this kind of signature.
203
593104
4674
合并多个文件，Git就会生成这么个签名
10:13
This long string of numbers and letters here
204
597778
3143
这是一串由字幕和数字组成的代码
10:16
is a unique identifier tied to every single change,
205
600921
5075
每一个改变都会有其独一无二的代码
10:21
but without any central coordination.
206
605996
2857
而且并不会经过其他程序的处理
10:24
Every Git system generates this number the same way,
207
608853
4489
每一个Git的系统以相同的方式生成这些代码
10:29
which means this is a signature tied directly
208
613342
3342
也就是说这些签名是直接
10:32
and unforgeably to a particular change.
209
616684
3150
连接到每一个独立的改变上的
10:35
This has the following effect:
210
619834
1936
这会带来如下影响：
10:37
A programmer in Edinburgh and a programmer in Entebbe
211
621770
3678
一个在爱丁堡的程序员和一个在乌干达恩德培德程序员
10:41
can both get the same -- a copy of the same piece of software.
212
625448
3702
可以得到相同的软件的的备份
10:45
Each of them can make changes and they can merge them
213
629150
3826
每个人都可以进行修改，然后整合
10:48
after the fact even if they didn't know
214
632976
2935
即使他们互相不知道
10:51
of each other's existence beforehand.
215
635911
2959
彼此的存在也没关系
10:54
This is cooperation without coordination.
216
638870
3499
这是不需要协调的合作
10:58
This is the big change.
217
642369
2936
这就是巨大的改革
11:01
Now, I tell you all of this not to convince you that it's great
218
645305
5210
我之所以告诉你们这些，不是想要你们觉得
11:06
that open-source programmers now have a tool
219
650515
3697
这些开放源码程式设计师这下有了好工具
11:10
that supports their philosophical way of working,
220
654212
3093
可以帮助实践他们的工作哲学，真是太棒了
11:13
although I think that is great.
221
657305
2104
虽然我真的觉得这的确很棒
11:15
I tell you all of this because of what I think it means
222
659409
2768
我告訴你们这些，是因为我从中看到了
11:18
for the way communities come together.
223
662177
2194
这对不同社群间的整合产生的意义
11:20
Once Git allowed for cooperation without coordination,
224
664371
6319
自从Git的开创了“互相合作而不需居中整合”的方式
11:26
you start to see communities form
225
670690
2940
你就会开始看到非常巨大
11:29
that are enormously large and complex.
226
673630
4252
而且复杂的社群形式
11:33
This is a graph of the Ruby community.
227
677882
2279
这是一个Ruby的社群的图示
11:36
It's an open-source programming language,
228
680161
1529
红宝石是一种开放原始码程式语言
11:37
and all of the interconnections between the people --
229
681690
2998
而在其中人们之间的关系 - -
11:40
this is now not a software graph, but a people graph,
230
684688
2399
这不是一个软体图示，而是人际的图示
11:42
all of the interconnections among the people
231
687087
2102
所有在同一个企划共同工作的人们
11:45
working on that project —
232
689189
2343
这是他们之间的连结
11:47
and this doesn't look like an org chart.
233
691532
2990
而这一点都不像个组织结构图
11:50
This looks like a dis-org chart, and yet,
234
694522
3420
还比较像个反组织结构图，然而
11:53
out of this community, but using these tools,
235
697942
2608
从这个社群里，而不单单只是使用那些工具
11:56
they can now create something together.
236
700550
2286
人们可以一起合作，制作程式
11:58
So there are two good reasons to think that
237
702836
4365
所以现在有两个很好的理由这样想：
12:03
this kind of technique can be applied
238
707201
4173
这种方式可以应用在
12:07
to democracies in general and in particular to the law.
239
711374
4533
普遍的民主制度，尤其是在法律上
12:11
When you make the claim, in fact,
240
715907
1858
但事实上，当你这样告诉别人：
12:13
that something on the Internet is going to be good
241
717765
2958
网路上有些东西对民主制度是好的
12:16
for democracy, you often get this reaction.
242
720723
2441
你通常会得到这样的反应
12:19
(Music) (Laughter)
243
723164
5924
（音乐）（笑声）
12:24
Which is, are you talking about the thing
244
729088
2526
意思是，你是指像会唱歌的猫
12:27
with the singing cats? Like, is that the thing
245
731614
2411
这类东西吗？这就是你说的
12:29
you think is going to be good for society?
246
734025
2629
对社会有帮助的事物吗？
12:32
To which I have to say, here's the thing
247
736654
2135
我必须说，像唱歌的猫这种东西
12:34
with the singing cats. That always happens.
248
738789
3361
总是会有的
12:38
And I don't just mean that always happens with the Internet,
249
742150
1733
我并不只是指这总是发生在网路上
12:39
I mean that always happens with media, full stop.
250
743883
2580
我是指任何媒体都会产生这类事情。
12:42
It did not take long after the rise
251
746463
2040
在商业性印刷兴起后
12:44
of the commercial printing press before someone
252
748503
2676
没多久就有人发现
12:47
figured out that erotic novels were a good idea. (Laughter)
253
751179
3313
印制色情小说是门好生意（笑声）
12:50
You don't have to have an economic incentive to sell books
254
754492
3042
你不必靠经济诱因来卖书单价，卖多久
12:53
very long before someone says, "Hey, you know what I bet
255
757534
3021
就会有人说：“欸，想知道我赌多少在
12:56
people would pay for?" (Laughter)
256
760555
2168
大家愿意花多少钱买这些书吗？“（笑声）
12:58
It took people another 150 years to even think
257
762723
3550
人们甚至还要多花150年才想到
13:02
of the scientific journal, right? So -- (Laughter) (Applause)
258
766273
6760
创办科学杂志，对吧？所以 - （笑声，掌声）
13:08
So the harnessing by the Invisible College
259
773033
3038
所以“无形学院”利用印刷机
13:11
of the printing press to create the scientific journal
260
776071
2385
创办了科学杂志
13:14
was phenomenally important, but it didn't happen big,
261
778456
2911
这是个重要事件，但并不是个划时代的里程碑
13:17
and it didn't happen quick, and it didn't happen fast, so
262
781367
2759
而且它发展的速度不快
13:20
if you're going to look for where the change is happening,
263
784126
3298
所以如果你想知道改变发生在哪里
13:23
you have to look on the margins.
264
787424
2016
你必须从边缘地带寻找
13:25
So, the law is also dependency-related.
265
789440
5464
法律也是互相依赖的
13:30
This is a graph of the U.S. Tax Code,
266
794904
3409
这是一张美国税法的图示
13:34
and the dependencies of one law on other laws
267
798313
3080
显示法规与法规之间的依赖关系
13:37
for the overall effect.
268
801393
2398
以及其整体效果
13:39
So there's that as a site for source code management.
269
803791
3432
所以，我们有了管理程式码的网站
13:43
But there's also the fact that law is another place
270
807223
1902
但是事实上，法律也是一个
13:45
where there are many opinions in circulation,
271
809125
2274
供许多不同意见传播的地方
13:47
but they need to be resolved to one canonical copy,
272
811399
3508
但是它们最终都必须变成一个标准版本
13:50
and when you go onto GitHub, and you look around,
273
814907
2577
而当你到GitHub上上看看
13:53
there are millions and millions of projects,
274
817484
2069
你会看到难以计数的制作计画
13:55
almost all of which are source code,
275
819553
1354
几乎全部都是程式码
13:56
but if you look around the edges, you can see people
276
820907
2685
但如果你往网路边缘找，你会发现
13:59
experimenting with the political ramifications
277
823592
2209
有人正在实验这种系统的
14:01
of a system like that.
278
825801
1613
政治效应
14:03
Someone put up all the Wikileaked cables
279
827414
1810
有人把维基解密发布的美国国务院电报
14:05
from the State Department, along with software used
280
829224
2265
和用来解读的软体一起放上网路
14:07
to interpret them, including my favorite use ever
281
831489
3189
包括一种我最爱用在他们公布的
14:10
of the Cablegate cables, which is a tool for detecting
282
834678
2371
国务院电报的软体，那是种专门用来侦测
14:12
naturally occurring haiku in State Department prose.
283
837049
3015
国务院电报里自然产生的俳句的工具
14:15
(Laughter)
284
840064
5896
（笑声）
14:21
Right. (Laughter)
285
845960
3072
是啊（笑声）
14:24
The New York Senate has put up something called
286
849032
2799
纽约州参议院设立了名为
14:27
Open Legislation, also hosting it on GitHub,
287
851831
2407
“公开立法”法案，也使用GitHub上的服务
14:30
again for all of the reasons of updating and fluidity.
288
854238
2386
同样是为了更新速度与流畅度
14:32
You can go and pick your Senator and then you can see
289
856624
2666
你可以上去浏览你们区的参议员
14:35
a list of bills they have sponsored.
290
859290
2035
就可以看到他们支持的法案
14:37
Someone going by Divegeek has put up the Utah code,
291
861325
3632
有人透过Divegeek发布了犹他法规
14:40
the laws of the state of Utah, and they've put it up there
292
864957
2765
就是犹他州的州法，而他们这么做
14:43
not just to distribute the code,
293
867722
1449
并不是只为了
14:45
but with the very interesting possibility that this could
294
869171
3198
也为了可以将这个用在进一步
14:48
be used to further the development of legislation.
295
872369
4555
发展立法过程的有趣可能性
14:52
Somebody put up a tool during the copyright debate
296
876924
3839
去年参议院的著作权辩论里
14:56
last year in the Senate, saying, "It's strange that Hollywood
297
880763
4186
有人发布了一样工具，说：
15:00
has more access to Canadian legislators
298
884949
3124
“好莱坞比加拿大公民有更多接触
15:03
than Canadian citizens do. Why don't we use GitHub
299
888073
3816
加拿大立法委员的管道，这非常奇怪。我们来用GitHub上
15:07
to show them what a citizen-developed bill might look like?"
300
891889
4476
让他们看看一个公民规划的法案会是什么样子。“
15:12
And it includes this very evocative screenshot.
301
896365
3752
而这张非常令人震撼的截图也包含在内
15:16
This is a called a "diff," this thing on the right here.
302
900117
2978
右边这块称为“差异”
15:18
This shows you, for text that many people are editing,
303
903095
2970
这部分是给你看许多人一起编辑的内容
15:21
when a change was made, who made it,
304
906065
2201
什么时候改的，谁改的
15:24
and what the change is.
305
908266
1003
以及改动的内容是什么
15:25
The stuff in red is the stuff that got deleted.
306
909269
1455
红色是被删除的东西
15:26
The stuff in green is the stuff that got added.
307
910724
2692
绿色则是多加进去的东西
15:29
Programmers take this capability for granted.
308
913416
2782
程式设计师真是物尽其用了
15:32
No democracy anywhere in the world offers this feature
309
916198
2925
世上没有任何民主国家可以提供
15:35
to its citizens for either legislation or for budgets,
310
919123
3815
公民这样的机会，不论是关于立法或预算
15:38
even though those are the things done
311
922938
2530
就算那些事是在我们的
15:41
with our consent and with our money.
312
925468
3139
同意和金钱之下通过的
15:44
Now, I would love to tell you that the fact
313
928607
3238
如果可以的话，我很想告诉你们
15:47
that the open-source programmers have worked out
314
931845
3172
开源程式设计师已经想出了
15:50
a collaborative method that is large scale, distributed,
315
935017
3671
一种规模广大的合作方式
15:54
cheap, and in sync with the ideals of democracy, I would love
316
938688
3465
便宜而且和民主的理想一致，我很想告诉
15:58
to tell you that because those tools are in place,
317
942153
2171
你们，这些工具都已经准备好了
16:00
the innovation is inevitable. But it's not.
318
944324
4331
因此改革是必然的，但事实并不是这样
16:04
Part of the problem, of course, is just a lack of information.
319
948655
2993
当然，部分的原因只是出在缺乏资讯
16:07
Somebody put a question up on Quora saying,
320
951648
1903
有人在问答网站上问了一个问题
16:09
"Why is it that lawmakers don't use
321
953551
2092
“为什么立法的人
16:11
distributed version control?"
322
955643
1407
不使用分散式版本控制的方式吗？“
16:12
This, graphically, was the answer. (Laughter)
323
957050
3621
这个则是图像示的答案（笑声）（图中文字 左：拥有Github 帐号的人 右：律师）
16:16
(Laughter) (Applause)
324
960671
2091
（笑声，掌声）
16:18
And that is indeed part of the problem, but only part.
325
962762
5022
这的确是一部分的问题，但只是一部分而已
16:23
The bigger problem, of course, is power.
326
967784
3177
当然，更大的问题出在权力
16:26
The people experimenting with participation don't have
327
970961
3170
那些实际参与以实验这个政治效应的人
16:30
legislative power, and the people who have legislative
328
974131
2569
并没有立法权，而有立法权的人
16:32
power are not experimenting with participation.
329
976700
3963
却不去参与这个实验
16:36
They are experimenting with openness.
330
980663
1545
这些实验是关于公开性
16:38
There's no democracy worth the name that doesn't have
331
982208
1860
如果没有公开透明的程序
16:39
a transparency move, but transparency is openness
332
984068
2928
那就不叫做民主，但是透明性只不过是
16:42
in only one direction, and being given a dashboard
333
986996
3905
公开性的一种面向，而给一艘
16:46
without a steering wheel has never been the core promise
334
990901
3170
沒有舵的船，也並不是民主国家
16:49
a democracy makes to its citizens.
335
994071
3411
对人民的中心承諾
16:53
So consider this.
336
997482
2350
所以想想看这些
16:55
The thing that got Martha Payne's opinions
337
999832
2586
玛莎。佩恩的想法能传达给大众
16:58
out into the public was a piece of technology,
338
1002418
3691
是因为一点科技的幫助
17:02
but the thing that kept them there was political will.
339
1006109
3634
但让它持续曝光的是政治意愿
17:05
It was the expectation of the citizens
340
1009743
2274
大众期望著
17:07
that she would not be censored.
341
1012017
3535
她不用接受审查
17:11
That's now the state we're in with these collaboration tools.
342
1015552
5328
这才是我们目前和这些合作性工具的发展情況
17:16
We have them. We've seen them. They work.
343
1020880
4007
我们拥有过，见识过过它们。它们可用。
17:20
Can we use them?
344
1024887
1051
我们可以利用它们吗？
17:21
Can we apply the techniques that worked here to this?
345
1025938
5126
我们可以将左边的方式应用在右边这里吗？
17:26
T.S. Eliot once said, "One of the most momentous things
346
1031064
3717
T.S.艾略特曾说：”一个文化里
17:30
that can happen to a culture
347
1034781
2080
所能发生的最重大的事
17:32
is that they acquire a new form of prose."
348
1036861
3643
是发现新的散文形式。“
17:36
I think that's wrong, but -- (Laughter)
349
1040504
2248
我不这么认为，不过 --（笑声）
17:38
I think it's right for argumentation. Right?
350
1042752
3659
这是一个正确的理论方式，对吧？
17:42
A momentous thing that can happen to a culture
351
1046411
3355
一个文化里能发生的最重大的事情是
17:45
is they can acquire a new style of arguing:
352
1049766
2814
他们可以发展出新的论辩方式：
17:48
trial by jury, voting, peer review, now this. Right?
353
1052580
6670
法官审判、投票、同侪审查、然后是这个，对吧？
17:55
A new form of arguing has been invented in our lifetimes,
354
1059296
3069
在我们的人生里，一种新的论辩方式已被发明
17:58
in the last decade, in fact.
355
1062365
1887
而且其实是在过去十年里发生的
18:00
It's large, it's distributed, it's low-cost,
356
1064252
4053
它规模巨大、很广泛、低成本
18:04
and it's compatible with the ideals of democracy.
357
1068305
3299
而且它很适合实现民主制度的理想
18:07
The question for us now is, are we going to let
358
1071604
1986
而现在的问题是：我们要继续只让
18:09
the programmers keep it to themselves?
359
1073590
1526
这些程式设计师使用它吗？
18:11
Or are we going to try and take it and press it into service
360
1075116
2049
或者，我们可以试着使用它、让它
18:13
for society at large?
361
1077165
2152
为社会大众服务？
18:15
Thank you for listening. (Applause)
362
1079317
2600
感谢大家出席聆听（掌声）
18:17
(Applause)
363
1081917
4138
（掌声）
18:21
Thank you. Thank you. (Applause)
364
1086055
5137
谢谢，谢谢（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Clay Shirky - Social Media TheoristClay Shirky argues that the history of the modern world could be rendered as the history of ways of arguing, where changes in media change what sort of arguments are possible -- with deep social and political implications.
Why you should listen
Clay Shirky's work focuses on the rising usefulness of networks -- using decentralized technologies such as peer-to-peer sharing, wireless, software for social creation, and open-source development. New technologies are enabling new kinds of cooperative structures to flourish as a way of getting things done in business, science, the arts and elsewhere, as an alternative to centralized and institutional structures, which he sees as self-limiting. In his writings and speeches he has argued that "a group is its own worst enemy."
Shirky is an adjunct professor in New York Universityʼs graduate Interactive Telecommunications Program, where he teaches a course named “Social Weather.” Heʼs the author of several books. This spring at the TED headquarters in New York, he gave an impassioned talk against SOPA/PIPA that saw 1 million views in 48 hours.
Clay Shirky | Speaker | TED.com