ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com
TED2014

Dan Gilbert: The psychology of your future self

丹•吉伯特: 未来自我的心理

Filmed:
5,798,493 views

“人类还处在发展变化的过程中,却错误的以为他们不会发生任何改变了。”丹•吉伯特分享了他最近关于一种他称作“历史错觉的终止”现象的研究,描述的是我们会不自觉地认为若干年后的自己跟现在不会有什么不同。小提示:事实并非如此。
- Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
At every一切 stage阶段 of our lives生活
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在我们生命的每个阶段,
00:14
we make decisions决定 that will profoundly深深 influence影响
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我们都会做出一些决定,
这些决定会深刻影响
00:18
the lives生活 of the people we're going to become成为,
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未来我们自己的生活,
00:20
and then when we become成为 those people,
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当我们成为未来的自己时,
00:21
we're not always thrilled高兴 with the decisions决定 we made制作.
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我们并不总是对过去
做过的决定感到高兴。
00:24
So young年轻 people pay工资 good money
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所以年轻人花很多钱
00:26
to get tattoos纹身 removed去除 that teenagers青少年
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洗去当还是青少年时
00:29
paid支付 good money to get.
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花了很多钱做上的纹身。
00:30
Middle-aged中年 people rushed to divorce离婚 people
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中年人急着跟
00:33
who young年轻 adults成年人 rushed to marry结婚.
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年轻时迫不及待想结婚的人离婚。
00:35
Older年长 adults成年人 work hard to lose失去
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老年人很努力的挥霍着
00:38
what middle-aged中年 adults成年人 worked工作 hard to gain获得.
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作为中年人时不停工作所赚的钱。
00:41
On and on and on.
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如此没完没了。
00:42
The question is, as a psychologist心理学家,
that fascinates着迷 me is,
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作为一个心理学家,
让我感兴趣的问题是,
00:45
why do we make decisions决定
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为什么我们会做出
00:47
that our future未来 selves自我 so often经常 regret后悔?
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让自己将来常常后悔的决定?
00:50
Now, I think one of the reasons原因 --
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我认为其中一个原因——
00:52
I'll try to convince说服 you today今天
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而我今天想说服你们的——,
00:54
is that we have a fundamental基本的 misconception误解
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就是我们对时间的力量
00:56
about the power功率 of time.
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有个基本的错误概念。
00:59
Every一切 one of you knows知道 that the rate of change更改
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你们每个人都知道变化的速度
01:01
slows减缓 over the human人的 lifespan寿命,
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随着人的年龄增长不断放慢,
01:03
that your children孩子 seem似乎 to change更改 by the minute分钟
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孩子们好像每分钟都有变化,
01:06
but your parents父母 seem似乎 to change更改 by the year.
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而父母们的变化则要慢得多。
01:09
But what is the name名称 of this magical神奇 point in life
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那么生命中这个让变化
01:12
where change更改 suddenly突然 goes
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突然间从飞速变得缓慢的
01:14
from a gallop驰骋 to a crawl爬行?
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神奇转折点应该叫什么呢?
01:16
Is it teenage青少年 years年份? Is it middle中间 age年龄?
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是青少年时期吗?是中年时期吗?
01:19
Is it old age年龄? The answer回答, it turns out,
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是老年阶段吗?
其实对大多数人来说,
01:22
for most people, is now,
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答案是,现在,
01:24
wherever哪里 now happens发生 to be.
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无论现在发生在什么。
01:27
What I want to convince说服 you today今天
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今天我想让大家明白的是,
01:29
is that all of us are walking步行 around with an illusion错觉,
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我们所有人都在围绕着
一种错觉生活,
01:32
an illusion错觉 that history历史, our personal个人 history历史,
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这种错觉就是,我们每个人的过去,
01:35
has just come to an end结束,
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都已经结束了,
01:37
that we have just recently最近 become成为
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我们已经成为了
01:39
the people that we were always meant意味着 to be
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我们应该成为的那种人,
01:42
and will be for the rest休息 of our lives生活.
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在余下的生命中也都会如此。
01:44
Let me give you some data数据 to back up that claim要求.
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我想给你们展示一些数据
来支持这个观点。
01:46
So here's这里的 a study研究 of change更改 in people's人们
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这是一项关于人们的个人价值观
01:49
personal个人 values over time.
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随时间变化的研究。
01:51
Here's这里的 three values.
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这里有3种价值观。
01:53
Everybody每个人 here holds持有 all of them,
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每个人的生活都与这三个价值观相关,
01:54
but you probably大概 know that as you grow增长,
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但是你们可能知道,
随着你们慢慢长大,
01:56
as you age年龄, the balance平衡 of these values shifts转变.
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变老,这三个价值观的平衡点
会不断变化。
02:00
So how does it do so?
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到底是怎么回事呢?
02:02
Well, we asked thousands数千 of people.
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我们询问了数千人。
02:04
We asked half of them to predict预测 for us
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我们让他们当中一半的人预测了一下
02:05
how much their values would
change更改 in the next下一个 10 years年份,
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在未来10年中,
他们的价值观会发生多大的改变,
02:08
and the others其他 to tell us
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让另一半人告诉我们
02:10
how much their values had
changed in the last 10 years年份.
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在过去的10年中,
他们的价值观发生了多大的变化。
02:13
And this enabled启用 us to do a really
interesting有趣 kind of analysis分析,
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这项调查可以让我们做一个很有趣的分析,
02:16
because it allowed允许 us to compare比较 the predictions预测
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因为它可以让我们将
02:19
of people, say, 18 years年份 old,
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大约18岁左右的人的预测同
02:21
to the reports报告 of people who were 28,
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大约28岁左右的人的答案相比较,
02:23
and to do that kind of analysis分析
throughout始终 the lifespan寿命.
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这项分析可以贯穿人的一生。
02:25
Here's这里的 what we found发现.
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这是我们的发现。
02:27
First of all, you are right,
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首先,你们是对的,
02:28
change更改 does slow down as we age年龄,
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随着我们年龄的增长,变化会减缓。
02:31
but second第二, you're wrong错误,
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第二,你们错了,
02:33
because it doesn't slow nearly几乎 as much as we think.
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因为这种变化并不像我们想象的那么慢。
02:36
At every一切 age年龄, from 18 to 68 in our data数据 set,
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在我们的数据库从18岁到68岁的
每一个年龄段中,
02:40
people vastly大大 underestimated低估 how much change更改
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人们大大的低估了在未来的10年
02:44
they would experience经验 over the next下一个 10 years年份.
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他们会经历多少变化。
02:47
We call this the "end结束 of history历史" illusion错觉.
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我们把这叫做“历史终止”错觉。
02:50
To give you an idea理念 of the magnitude大小 of this effect影响,
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为了让你们了解这种影响有多大,
02:52
you can connect these two lines线,
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你们可以把这两条线连接起来,
02:53
and what you see here is that 18-year-olds- 年的孩子
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你们现在看到的是18岁的人群
02:56
anticipate预料 changing改变 only as much
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预期的改变仅仅和
02:58
as 50-year-olds- 年的孩子 actually其实 do.
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50岁的人群实际经历的一样。
03:01
Now it's not just values. It's all sorts排序 of other things.
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现在不仅仅是价值观了。
其他的方面都也有变化。
03:05
For example, personality个性.
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比如说,人格。
03:07
Many许多 of you know that psychologists心理学家 now claim要求
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你们当中的很多人知道现在心理学家们认为
03:09
that there are five fundamental基本的
dimensions尺寸 of personality个性:
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人格可以分为五个基本维度:
03:13
neuroticism神经质, openness透明度 to experience经验,
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神经质性,经验汲取度,
03:15
agreeableness宜人, extraversion外向性, and conscientiousness自觉性.
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协调性,外向性和道德感。
03:19
Again, we asked people how much they expected预期
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回到原来的话题,
我们问人们他们期待未来的10年中
03:21
to change更改 over the next下一个 10 years年份,
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自己会有多大的变化,
03:23
and also how much they had
changed over the last 10 years年份,
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以及他们在过去的10年中发生了多少变化,
03:26
and what we found发现,
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我们发现了,
03:27
well, you're going to get used to
seeing眼看 this diagram over and over,
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你们会习惯不断地看到这个图表,
03:30
because once一旦 again the rate of change更改
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因为又一次,变化速率随着我们的年龄增长
03:32
does slow as we age年龄,
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减慢了。
03:33
but at every一切 age年龄, people underestimate低估
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但是在每一个年龄阶段,人们都低估了
03:37
how much their personalities个性 will change更改
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在未来的十年中
03:39
in the next下一个 decade.
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他们的人格会发生多大的改变。
03:41
And it isn't just ephemeral短暂的 things
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而且不光是像价值观和人格这样的
03:44
like values and personality个性.
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临时性的特质。
03:45
You can ask people about their likes喜欢 and dislikes不喜欢,
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你们可以问问人们关于他们喜好和厌恶的事,
03:48
their basic基本 preferences优先.
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他们基本的偏好。
03:50
For example, name名称 your best最好 friend朋友,
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比如说,说出你最好朋友的名字,
03:53
your favorite喜爱 kind of vacation假期,
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你最喜欢什么样的假期,
03:54
what's your favorite喜爱 hobby爱好,
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你最大的爱好是什么,
03:56
what's your favorite喜爱 kind of music音乐.
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你最喜欢什么样的音乐。
03:58
People can name名称 these things.
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人们可以说出这些事情。
03:59
We ask half of them to tell us,
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我们让他们当中的一半人告诉我们,
04:01
"Do you think that that will
change更改 over the next下一个 10 years年份?"
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“你认为这在未来10年内会改变吗?”
04:05
and half of them to tell us,
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让另一半告诉我们,
04:06
"Did that change更改 over the last 10 years年份?"
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“这个在过去十年内变化了吗?”
04:09
And what we find, well, you've seen看到 it twice两次 now,
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我们的发现是,
嗯,这个图你们已经看过2次了,
04:11
and here it is again:
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再展示一次:
04:13
people predict预测 that the friend朋友 they have now
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人们推测他们现在的朋友
04:16
is the friend朋友 they'll他们会 have in 10 years年份,
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在未来10年中还会是他们的朋友,
04:18
the vacation假期 they most enjoy请享用 now is the one
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他们喜欢的度假之地在未来10年内
04:20
they'll他们会 enjoy请享用 in 10 years年份,
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还会是他们喜欢的地方,
04:21
and yet然而, people who are 10 years年份 older旧的 all say,
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然而,年长10岁的人都会说:
04:24
"Eh, you know, that's really changed."
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“嗯,你知道,这确实不一样了。”
04:27
Does any of this matter?
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这有什么关系吗?
04:28
Is this just a form形成 of mis-prediction误预测
that doesn't have consequences后果?
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这只是一种
并不会有什么后果的错误的预测吗?
04:31
No, it matters事项 quite相当 a bit, and
I'll give you an example of why.
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不,这有很大的关系,
我会举例告诉你们为什么。
04:34
It bedevilsbedevils our decision-making做决定 in important重要 ways方法.
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它在很多重要的方面困扰着我们做决定。
04:38
Bring带来 to mind心神 right now for yourself你自己
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现在想想你们此时此刻
04:39
your favorite喜爱 musician音乐家 today今天
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最喜欢的音乐人,
04:42
and your favorite喜爱 musician音乐家 10 years年份 ago.
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还有10年前你们最喜欢的音乐人。
04:44
I put mine up on the screen屏幕 to help you along沿.
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我把我的答案放在大屏幕上作为提示。
04:46
Now we asked people
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现在我们让人们
04:48
to predict预测 for us, to tell us
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预测一下,告诉我们
04:50
how much money they would pay工资 right now
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他们现在愿意付多少钱
04:53
to see their current当前 favorite喜爱 musician音乐家
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来参加他们现在最喜欢的音乐人
04:55
perform演出 in concert音乐会 10 years年份 from now,
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从现在起10年后的音乐会,
04:58
and on average平均, people said they would pay工资
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平均来讲,人们会说他们会付
05:00
129 dollars美元 for that ticket.
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129美元买票。
05:03
And yet然而, when we asked them
how much they would pay工资
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然而,当我们问他们
05:06
to see the person who was their favorite喜爱
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愿意付多少钱去看
05:08
10 years年份 ago perform演出 today今天,
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他们10年前喜欢的人现在的演出,
05:10
they say only 80 dollars美元.
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他们说只有80块。
05:12
Now, in a perfectly完美 rational合理的 world世界,
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那么,在一个完全理性的世界里,
05:14
these should be the same相同 number,
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这两个数字应该是相同的,
05:16
but we overpay多付 for the opportunity机会
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但是我们为沉浸于当前喜好中
05:18
to indulge放纵 our current当前 preferences优先
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的机会付了更多的钱,
05:20
because we overestimate估计过高 their stability稳定性.
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因为我们高估了它们的持久性。
05:24
Why does this happen发生? We're not entirely完全 sure,
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为什么会发生这样的变化呢?
我们也不是很确定,
05:26
but it probably大概 has to do
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不过这可能与
05:28
with the ease缓解 of remembering记忆
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记忆的消逝和
05:30
versus the difficulty困难 of imagining想象.
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想象的难度相关。
05:32
Most of us can remember记得
who we were 10 years年份 ago,
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我们中的大多数人都能记得
10年前的我们是什么样子,
05:35
but we find it hard to imagine想像 who we're going to be,
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但是要想像我们会成为什么样的人就困难了,
05:38
and then we mistakenly think
that because it's hard to imagine想像,
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然后我们会错误地认为因为很难想象,
05:41
it's not likely容易 to happen发生.
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就不太可能会发生。
05:43
Sorry, when people say "I can't imagine想像 that,"
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很遗憾,当人们说“我可想象不出来”,
05:46
they're usually平时 talking about
their own拥有 lack缺乏 of imagination想像力,
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他们通常是在表达他们缺乏想象力,
05:49
and not about the unlikelihood
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而不是他们所描述的
05:50
of the event事件 that they're describing说明.
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不可能发生的事情。
05:53
The bottom底部 line线 is, time is a powerful强大 force.
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总而言之,时间是一种强大的力量。
05:57
It transforms变换 our preferences优先.
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它改变了我们的喜好。
05:59
It reshapes重塑 our values.
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它重塑了我们的价值观。
06:01
It alters变造 our personalities个性.
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它改变了我们的人格。
06:02
We seem似乎 to appreciate欣赏 this fact事实,
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我们似乎会感激这个事实,
06:05
but only in retrospect回想起来.
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但是只在回想过去的时候。
06:06
Only when we look backwards向后 do we realize实现
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只有在我们回首过去的时候我们才会认识到
06:09
how much change更改 happens发生 in a decade.
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在过去的十年里发生了多么大的变化。
06:12
It's as if, for most of us,
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好像,对我们大多数人来说,
06:14
the present当下 is a magic魔法 time.
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当前是个有魔力的时刻。
06:16
It's a watershed分水岭 on the timeline时间线.
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2017
它是时间轴上的分水岭。
06:18
It's the moment时刻 at which哪一个 we finally最后
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它是一个使我们最终成为
06:20
become成为 ourselves我们自己.
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我们自己的时刻。
06:23
Human人的 beings众生 are works作品 in progress进展
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人类还处在发展变化的过程中,
06:25
that mistakenly think they're finished.
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却错误地以为他们不会发生任何改变了。
06:28
The person you are right now
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现在的你
06:30
is as transient短暂的, as fleeting流年 and as temporary临时
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只是处于过渡中,转瞬即逝,
暂时的的状态而已,
06:34
as all the people you've ever been.
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就像所有那些过去的你。
06:36
The one constant不变 in our life is change更改.
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在我们的生命中唯一不变的就是,
变化。
06:40
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
06:42
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
Reviewed by Yuanqing Edberg

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com

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