ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com
TED2014

Dan Gilbert: The psychology of your future self

Dan Gilbert: A psicologia do nosso "eu" futuro

Filmed:
5,798,493 views

"Os seres humanos são obras em progresso que equivocadamente pensam que estão prontos." Dan Gilbert compartilha uma pesquisa recente sobre um fenômeno que ele chama de "ilusão do fim da história", onde nós, de alguma forma, imaginamos que a pessoa que somos agora é a pessoa que seremos até o fim da vida. Dica: não é bem assim.
- Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
At every stage of our lives
0
668
1950
Em todas as fases de nossas vidas
00:14
we make decisions that will profoundly influence
1
2618
3568
tomamos decisões que
influenciarão profundamente
as vidas das pessoas que nos tornaremos,
00:18
the lives of the people we're going to become,
2
6186
1886
00:20
and then when we become those people,
3
8072
1620
e, quando nos tornamos essas pessoas,
00:21
we're not always thrilled with the decisions we made.
4
9692
2418
nem sempre nos empolgamos
com as decisões que tomamos.
00:24
So young people pay good money
5
12110
2514
Pessoas jovens pagam caro
00:26
to get tattoos removed that teenagers
6
14624
2704
para remover tatuagens que os adolescentes
00:29
paid good money to get.
7
17328
1370
pagaram caro para fazer.
00:30
Middle-aged people rushed to divorce people
8
18698
2508
Pessoas de meia idade
correm para divorciarem-se
00:33
who young adults rushed to marry.
9
21206
2617
daqueles que os jovens adultos
correram para casar.
00:35
Older adults work hard to lose
10
23823
2637
Adultos mais velhos
se esforçam para perder
00:38
what middle-aged adults worked hard to gain.
11
26460
2700
o que adultos de meia idade
se esforçaram para ganhar.
00:41
On and on and on.
12
29160
1116
É sempre a mesma coisa.
00:42
The question is, as a psychologist,
that fascinates me is,
13
30276
3032
Como psicólogo, a pergunta
que me fascina é:
00:45
why do we make decisions
14
33308
1752
por que tomamos decisões
00:47
that our future selves so often regret?
15
35060
3696
das quais nos arrependeremos no futuro?
00:50
Now, I think one of the reasons --
16
38756
1852
Bem, eu acho que uma das razões --
vou tentar convencê-los hoje --
00:52
I'll try to convince you today —
17
40608
1452
00:54
is that we have a fundamental misconception
18
42060
2560
é que temos uma ideia
fundamentalmente errada
00:56
about the power of time.
19
44620
2832
a respeito do poder do tempo.
00:59
Every one of you knows that the rate of change
20
47452
2480
Todos vocês sabem que a taxa de mudança
01:01
slows over the human lifespan,
21
49932
1922
desacelera ao longo da vida humana,
01:03
that your children seem to change by the minute
22
51854
2858
que nossos filhos parecem
mudar a cada minuto,
01:06
but your parents seem to change by the year.
23
54712
2754
mas nossos pais parecem mudar a cada ano.
01:09
But what is the name of this magical point in life
24
57466
3420
Mas qual é o nome desse
ponto mágico na vida,
01:12
where change suddenly goes
25
60886
2036
onde a mudança de repente passa
01:14
from a gallop to a crawl?
26
62922
1782
de um galope para um rastejo?
01:16
Is it teenage years? Is it middle age?
27
64704
2736
Seria a adolescência? A meia idade?
01:19
Is it old age? The answer, it turns out,
28
67440
2670
A terceira idade?
Ao que parece, a resposta
01:22
for most people, is now,
29
70110
2530
para a maioria das pessoas é "agora",
01:24
wherever now happens to be.
30
72640
2951
onde quer que esteja o "agora".
01:27
What I want to convince you today
31
75591
2002
O que eu quero convencê-los hoje
01:29
is that all of us are walking around with an illusion,
32
77593
3019
é de que todos nós estamos
andando por aí com uma ilusão,
01:32
an illusion that history, our personal history,
33
80612
3218
uma ilusão de que a história,
nossa história pessoal,
01:35
has just come to an end,
34
83830
1614
acabou de chegar ao fim,
01:37
that we have just recently become
35
85444
1607
de que recentemente nos tornamos
01:39
the people that we were always meant to be
36
87051
3155
a pessoa que estávamos destinados a ser,
01:42
and will be for the rest of our lives.
37
90206
2446
e seremos pelo resto de nossas vidas.
Vou lhes mostrar alguns dados
para apoiar essa afirmação.
01:44
Let me give you some data to back up that claim.
38
92652
2104
01:46
So here's a study of change in people's
39
94756
3154
Eis um estudo de mudanças no valor pessoal
01:49
personal values over time.
40
97910
2032
das pessoas ao longo do tempo.
01:51
Here's three values.
41
99942
1199
Aqui estão três valores.
01:53
Everybody here holds all of them,
42
101141
1515
Todos aqui possuem todos eles,
01:54
but you probably know that as you grow,
43
102656
2158
mas vocês devem saber
que, conforme você cresce,
01:56
as you age, the balance of these values shifts.
44
104814
3359
à medida que envelhece,
o equilíbrio destes valores muda.
02:00
So how does it do so?
45
108173
1909
Então como acontece?
02:02
Well, we asked thousands of people.
46
110082
2008
Bem, nós perguntamos
a milhares de pessoas.
02:04
We asked half of them to predict for us
47
112090
1787
Pedimos à metade delas que previssem
02:05
how much their values would
change in the next 10 years,
48
113877
3010
o quanto seus valores mudariam
nos próximos 10 anos,
e aos outros que nos dissessem
02:08
and the others to tell us
49
116887
1376
02:10
how much their values had
changed in the last 10 years.
50
118263
3250
o quanto seus valores tinham
mudado nos últimos 10 anos.
02:13
And this enabled us to do a really
interesting kind of analysis,
51
121513
3467
E isso nos permitiu fazer um
tipo de análise bem interessante,
02:16
because it allowed us to compare the predictions
52
124980
2211
porque nos permitiu comparar as previsões
02:19
of people, say, 18 years old,
53
127191
1994
de pessoas, digamos, de 18 anos
02:21
to the reports of people who were 28,
54
129185
2112
com os relatos de pessoas de 28,
02:23
and to do that kind of analysis
throughout the lifespan.
55
131297
2620
e fazer esse tipo de análise
para toda a vida.
02:25
Here's what we found.
56
133917
1331
Eis o que descobrimos.
02:27
First of all, you are right,
57
135248
1293
Primeiro, você está certo,
02:28
change does slow down as we age,
58
136541
2848
a mudança realmente desacelera
à medida que envelhecemos,
02:31
but second, you're wrong,
59
139389
1892
mas em segundo lugar você está errado,
02:33
because it doesn't slow nearly as much as we think.
60
141281
3398
porque ela não desacelera
nem de perto o quanto pensamos.
02:36
At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set,
61
144679
3863
Em todas as idades, de 18 a 68
em nosso conjunto de dados,
02:40
people vastly underestimated how much change
62
148542
3710
as pessoas subestimaram muito
o quanto de mudança
02:44
they would experience over the next 10 years.
63
152252
2919
elas sofreriam
durante os próximos 10 anos.
02:47
We call this the "end of history" illusion.
64
155171
2934
Nós chamamos isso
de ilusão do "fim da história".
02:50
To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect,
65
158105
2383
Para lhes dar uma ideia
da magnitude desse efeito,
02:52
you can connect these two lines,
66
160488
1222
podemos conectar essas duas linhas
02:53
and what you see here is that 18-year-olds
67
161710
2764
e o que vemos aqui é que jovens de 18 anos
02:56
anticipate changing only as much
68
164474
2469
antecipam a mudança somente tanto quanto
02:58
as 50-year-olds actually do.
69
166943
2985
pessoas de 50 anos o fazem.
03:01
Now it's not just values. It's all sorts of other things.
70
169928
3554
E não são só os valores.
São todos os tipos de coisas.
03:05
For example, personality.
71
173482
1818
Por exemplo, personalidade.
03:07
Many of you know that psychologists now claim
72
175300
2666
Muitos de vocês sabem
que agora os psicólogos dizem
03:09
that there are five fundamental
dimensions of personality:
73
177966
3294
que há 5 dimensões
fundamentais de personalidade:
03:13
neuroticism, openness to experience,
74
181260
2267
neuroticismo, abertura a experiência,
03:15
agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness.
75
183527
3848
amabilidade, extroversão e consciência.
De novo, perguntamos às pessoas
o quanto elas esperavam
03:19
Again, we asked people how much they expected
76
187375
2247
03:21
to change over the next 10 years,
77
189622
1576
mudar nos próximos 10 anos,
03:23
and also how much they had
changed over the last 10 years,
78
191198
3361
e também o quanto tinham
mudado nos últimos 10 anos,
03:26
and what we found,
79
194559
916
e o que descobrimos...
03:27
well, you're going to get used to
seeing this diagram over and over,
80
195475
2555
vocês vão se acostumar
com este diagrama,
03:30
because once again the rate of change
81
198030
2039
porque novamente, a taxa de mudança
03:32
does slow as we age,
82
200069
1610
desacelera à medida que envelhecemos.
03:33
but at every age, people underestimate
83
201679
3888
Mas em todas as idades,
as pessoas subestimam
03:37
how much their personalities will change
84
205567
2333
o quanto sua personalidade vai mudar
03:39
in the next decade.
85
207900
1784
na próxima década.
03:41
And it isn't just ephemeral things
86
209684
2321
E não são somente coisas efêmeras
03:44
like values and personality.
87
212005
1854
como valores e personalidade.
03:45
You can ask people about their likes and dislikes,
88
213859
3015
Podemos perguntar sobre
seus gostos e desgostos,
03:48
their basic preferences.
89
216874
1454
suas preferências básicas.
03:50
For example, name your best friend,
90
218328
2802
Por exemplo, quem é seu melhor amigo,
03:53
your favorite kind of vacation,
91
221130
1416
seu tipo favorito de férias,
03:54
what's your favorite hobby,
92
222546
1766
seu hobby favorito,
03:56
what's your favorite kind of music.
93
224312
1811
seu tipo favorito de música.
As pessoas conseguem dizer isso.
03:58
People can name these things.
94
226123
1437
03:59
We ask half of them to tell us,
95
227560
2360
Pedimos à metade delas para nos dizer:
04:01
"Do you think that that will
change over the next 10 years?"
96
229920
3393
"Você acha que isso vai mudar
nos próximos 10 anos?"
e à outra metade para nos dizer:
04:05
and half of them to tell us,
97
233313
1154
04:06
"Did that change over the last 10 years?"
98
234467
2691
"Isso mudou nos últimos 10 anos?"
04:09
And what we find, well, you've seen it twice now,
99
237158
2583
E o que descobrimos, bem,
já vimos isso duas vezes
04:11
and here it is again:
100
239741
1842
e aqui vai de novo:
04:13
people predict that the friend they have now
101
241583
3080
as pessoas preveem
que o amigo que têm agora
04:16
is the friend they'll have in 10 years,
102
244663
1548
é o amigo que terão em 10 anos,
04:18
the vacation they most enjoy now is the one
103
246211
2105
as férias de que mais gostam agora
é a mesma de que gostarão em 10 anos,
04:20
they'll enjoy in 10 years,
104
248316
1332
04:21
and yet, people who are 10 years older all say,
105
249648
2742
e ainda assim, todas as pessoas
10 anos mais velhas dizem:
04:24
"Eh, you know, that's really changed."
106
252390
2929
"Eh, sabe, isso mudou mesmo."
Qual é a importância disso?
04:27
Does any of this matter?
107
255319
1156
04:28
Is this just a form of mis-prediction
that doesn't have consequences?
108
256475
3160
Será apenas um erro de previsão
que não tem consequências?
04:31
No, it matters quite a bit, and
I'll give you an example of why.
109
259635
2922
Não, é muito importante,
e vou lhes dar um exemplo do motivo.
04:34
It bedevils our decision-making in important ways.
110
262557
3465
Isso influencia nossa tomada
de decisão, de forma importante.
04:38
Bring to mind right now for yourself
111
266022
1705
Pensem agora
04:39
your favorite musician today
112
267727
2273
no seu músico favorito hoje,
04:42
and your favorite musician 10 years ago.
113
270000
2368
e seu músico favorito 10 anos atrás.
04:44
I put mine up on the screen to help you along.
114
272368
2559
Eu coloquei os meus na tela
para ajudá-los.
04:46
Now we asked people
115
274927
1603
Então pedimos às pessoas
04:48
to predict for us, to tell us
116
276530
2237
que predissessem, que nos dissessem
04:50
how much money they would pay right now
117
278767
2887
quanto elas pagariam agora
04:53
to see their current favorite musician
118
281654
2336
para ver seu músico favorito atual
04:55
perform in concert 10 years from now,
119
283990
2517
em um show daqui a 10 anos
e, em média, elas
disseram que pagariam
04:58
and on average, people said they would pay
120
286507
2047
05:00
129 dollars for that ticket.
121
288554
2717
129 dólares pelo ingresso.
05:03
And yet, when we asked them
how much they would pay
122
291271
2927
E quando perguntamos
quanto elas pagariam
05:06
to see the person who was their favorite
123
294198
2321
para ver num show, hoje, a pessoa
05:08
10 years ago perform today,
124
296519
2039
que era seu favorito 10 anos atrás,
05:10
they say only 80 dollars.
125
298558
1842
elas disseram apenas 80 dólares.
05:12
Now, in a perfectly rational world,
126
300400
1838
Num mundo perfeitamente racional
05:14
these should be the same number,
127
302238
2114
esses números deveriam ser iguais,
05:16
but we overpay for the opportunity
128
304352
2511
mas pagamos mais pela oportunidade
05:18
to indulge our current preferences
129
306863
2103
de satisfazer nossas preferências atuais
05:20
because we overestimate their stability.
130
308966
3320
porque superestimamos sua estabilidade.
05:24
Why does this happen? We're not entirely sure,
131
312286
2448
Por que isso acontece? Não temos certeza,
05:26
but it probably has to do
132
314734
1546
mas provavelmente tem a ver
05:28
with the ease of remembering
133
316280
2179
com a facilidade de lembrar
05:30
versus the difficulty of imagining.
134
318459
2521
contra a dificuldade de imaginar.
A maioria de nós consegue lembrar
quem éramos há 10 anos,
05:32
Most of us can remember
who we were 10 years ago,
135
320980
2469
05:35
but we find it hard to imagine who we're going to be,
136
323449
2739
mas temos dificuldade
em imaginar quem seremos,
05:38
and then we mistakenly think
that because it's hard to imagine,
137
326188
3005
então pensamos erroneamente que
porque é difícil de imaginar,
05:41
it's not likely to happen.
138
329193
2074
é improvável que aconteça.
05:43
Sorry, when people say "I can't imagine that,"
139
331267
3255
Desculpem, quando as pessoas dizem:
"Não consigo imaginar",
05:46
they're usually talking about
their own lack of imagination,
140
334522
2948
normalmente estão falando
de sua própria falta de imaginação,
05:49
and not about the unlikelihood
141
337470
1492
e não da improbabilidade
05:50
of the event that they're describing.
142
338962
2990
do evento que estão descrevendo.
05:53
The bottom line is, time is a powerful force.
143
341952
3567
A questão é que o tempo
é uma força poderosa.
05:57
It transforms our preferences.
144
345519
1643
Ele transforma nossas preferências
05:59
It reshapes our values.
145
347162
2118
reformula nossos valores,
altera nossas personalidades.
06:01
It alters our personalities.
146
349280
1343
06:02
We seem to appreciate this fact,
147
350623
2567
Parece que apreciamos isso,
06:05
but only in retrospect.
148
353190
1561
mas somente em retrospecto.
06:06
Only when we look backwards do we realize
149
354751
2495
Só quando olhamos para trás, percebemos
06:09
how much change happens in a decade.
150
357246
3272
quanta mudança ocorre em uma década.
06:12
It's as if, for most of us,
151
360518
1679
É como se, para a maioria de nós,
06:14
the present is a magic time.
152
362197
2169
o presente fosse um tempo mágico.
06:16
It's a watershed on the timeline.
153
364366
2017
É um divisor de águas na linha do tempo.
06:18
It's the moment at which we finally
154
366383
2344
É o momento em que finalmente
06:20
become ourselves.
155
368727
2503
tornamo-nos nós mesmos.
06:23
Human beings are works in progress
156
371230
2693
Os seres humanos são obras em progresso,
06:25
that mistakenly think they're finished.
157
373923
2923
que equivocadamente
pensam que estão prontos.
06:28
The person you are right now
158
376846
1790
A pessoa que você é agora
06:30
is as transient, as fleeting and as temporary
159
378636
3702
é tão transiente,
tão fugaz e tão temporária
06:34
as all the people you've ever been.
160
382338
2659
quanto todas as pessoas que você já foi.
06:36
The one constant in our life is change.
161
384997
3548
A única constante
em nossa vida é a mudança.
06:40
Thank you.
162
388545
2096
Obrigado.
(Aplausos)
06:42
(Applause)
163
390641
1753
Translated by Gustavo Rocha
Reviewed by Andrea Mussap

▲Back to top

ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com

Data provided by TED.

This site was created in May 2015 and the last update was on January 12, 2020. It will no longer be updated.

We are currently creating a new site called "eng.lish.video" and would be grateful if you could access it.

If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to write comments in your language on the contact form.

Privacy Policy

Developer's Blog

Buy Me A Coffee