TED2010
George Whitesides: Toward a science of simplicity
走向简单的本质
Filmed:
Readability: 3.5
691,339 views
简单：见到即被理解。但是，它确切地是指什么？在这个幽默而又富含哲理的演讲中，George Whitesides找到了一个答案。
George Whitesides - Chemist
In his legendary career in chemistry, George Whitesides has been a pioneer in microfabrication and nanoscale self-assembly. Now, he's fabbing a diagnostic lab on a chip. Full bio
In his legendary career in chemistry, George Whitesides has been a pioneer in microfabrication and nanoscale self-assembly. Now, he's fabbing a diagnostic lab on a chip. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
Most of the talks
0
3000
2000
大多数的演讲
00:20
that you've heard in the last several fabulous days
1
5000
3000
你在前几天那些美妙的日子听到的
00:23
have been from people who have the characteristic
2
8000
2000
都是来自一些很有特点的人
00:25
that they have thought about something,
3
10000
2000
就是他们都已经思考过一些事
00:27
they are experts, they know what's going on.
4
12000
3000
他们都是这方面的专家，他们知道这个领域的现状
00:31
All of you know about the topic
5
16000
2000
你们都知道
00:33
that I'm supposed to talk about.
6
18000
2000
今天我要谈的这个话题
00:35
That is, you know what simplicity is,
7
20000
2000
的确，你知道简洁是什么
00:37
you know what complexity is.
8
22000
2000
你也知道复杂是什么
00:39
The trouble is, I don't.
9
24000
2000
问题是，我不知道
00:41
And what I'm going to do is share with you
10
26000
2000
我接下来要做的就是和你们交流一下
00:43
my ignorance on this subject.
11
28000
2000
我对这个话题不清楚的地方
00:46
I want you to read this,
12
31000
2000
我希望你来读这些
00:48
because we're going to come back to it in a moment.
13
33000
3000
因为我们过一会将重新回到这个问题上来
00:53
The quote is from
14
38000
2000
这段引文来自
00:55
the fabled Potter Stewart
15
40000
2000
传说中的Potter Stewart
00:59
opinion on pornography.
16
44000
3000
关于色情文学的观点
01:02
And let me just read it,
17
47000
2000
我来读一下
01:04
the important details here:
18
49000
2000
重要的细节
01:06
"Shorthand description, ['hardcore pornography'];
19
51000
3000
简化的描述，赤裸裸的色情
01:09
and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly defining it.
20
54000
3000
可能我从来都不能给它下一个容易理解的定义。
01:12
But I know it when I see it."
21
57000
2000
但是我一看见这句话我就明白它的意思
01:14
I'm going to come back to that in a moment.
22
59000
3000
我们一会就会重新回到这里
01:17
So, what is simplicity?
23
62000
2000
那，什么事简洁？
01:19
It's good to start with some examples.
24
64000
2000
举一些例子作为开头可能会好一些。
01:22
A coffee cup -- we don't think about coffee cups,
25
67000
3000
一个咖啡杯。我们不去想它们
01:25
but it's much more interesting than one might think --
26
70000
2000
但是这可能比去想更有意义。
01:27
a coffee cup is a device,
27
72000
3000
咖啡杯是个物件，是的
01:30
which has a container and a handle.
28
75000
3000
它是一个容器，是的，还带一个把手，没错。
01:33
The handle enables you to hold it
29
78000
3000
把手可以使你拿起它
01:36
when the container is filled with hot liquid.
30
81000
3000
当咖啡杯里装满热的液体时，嗯~
01:39
Why is that important?
31
84000
2000
为什么这很重要？
01:41
Well, it enables you to drink coffee.
32
86000
2000
因为，这能让你喝咖啡。
01:43
But also, by the way, the coffee is hot,
33
88000
2000
但是，提醒一下，咖啡是热的，
01:45
the liquid is sterile;
34
90000
2000
液体是无菌的。
01:47
you're not likely to get cholera that way.
35
92000
2000
这样你就不大可能会感染霍乱。
01:49
So the coffee cup, or the cup with a handle,
36
94000
3000
所以咖啡杯，或者是一个有把手的杯子
01:52
is one of the tools used by society
37
97000
3000
是被人类社会应用的一种工具
01:55
to maintain public health.
38
100000
2000
来维护公众健康
01:57
Scissors are your clothes,
39
102000
2000
剪刀成就你的衣服。
01:59
glasses enable you to see things
40
104000
2000
眼镜让你看清东西
02:01
and keep you from being eaten by cheetahs
41
106000
2000
防止你被猎豹吃掉
02:03
or run down by automobiles,
42
108000
2000
或者被汽车撞到
02:05
and books are, after all, your education.
43
110000
3000
最后，书籍，是你们的教育。
02:08
But there's another class of simple things,
44
113000
2000
但是还有另外一类简单的东西
02:10
which are also very important.
45
115000
2000
它们也很重要
02:12
Simple in function,
46
117000
2000
在功能上很简单
02:14
but not at all simple in how they're constructed.
47
119000
3000
但是它们的构造上上却一点都不简单。
02:17
And the two here are just examples.
48
122000
3000
这里有两个例子
02:20
One is the cellphone, which we use every day.
49
125000
3000
一个是手机，我们每天都用
02:23
And it rests on a complexity,
50
128000
2000
它依赖于一个复杂系统
02:25
which has some characteristics
51
130000
2000
有一些特性
02:27
very different from those that my friend
52
132000
2000
与我朋友Benoit Mandelbrot
02:29
Benoit Mandelbrot discussed,
53
134000
2000
说的非常的不同
02:31
but are very interesting.
54
136000
2000
但是非常有趣
02:33
And the other, of course, is a birth control pill,
55
138000
3000
另一个例子，当然，是避孕药
02:36
which, in a very simple way,
56
141000
2000
一个非常简单的方式
02:38
fundamentally changed the structure of society
57
143000
2000
它却从根本上改变了社会的结构
02:40
by changing the role of women in it
58
145000
3000
通过改变女人在社会中的角色
02:43
by providing to them
59
148000
2000
通过给她们提供
02:45
the opportunity to make reproductive choices.
60
150000
2000
选择是否怀孕生子
02:50
So, there are two ways of thinking about this word, I think.
61
155000
3000
我认为有两种方式来看待这个词
02:53
And here I've corrupted
62
158000
2000
而且我在这里曲解
02:55
the Potter Stewart quotation
63
160000
3000
Potter Stewart的引言
02:58
by saying that we can think about something --
64
163000
2000
通过举例说我们可以想一些事情
03:00
which spans all the way from scissors
65
165000
2000
一些从剪刀跨度
03:02
to the cell phone,
66
167000
2000
到手机的各种方式
03:04
Internet and birth control pills --
67
169000
2000
从网络到避孕药
03:06
by saying that they're simple,
68
171000
3000
通过谈他们是简单的
03:09
the functions are simple,
69
174000
2000
功能是简单的
03:11
and we recognize what that simplicity is
70
176000
2000
然后我们认识到什么事简洁
03:13
when we see it.
71
178000
2000
当我们看到的时候
03:15
Or there may be another way of doing it,
72
180000
3000
又或，可能有另一种方式来解释
03:19
which is to think about the problem in terms of what --
73
184000
3000
即根据什么来考虑这个问题
03:22
if you associate with moral philosophers --
74
187000
3000
如果你与思想哲学家交往
03:25
is called the teapot problem.
75
190000
3000
被称作茶壶问题
03:29
The teapot problem I'll pose this way.
76
194000
3000
茶壶问题，我来解释一下
03:32
Suppose you see a teapot,
77
197000
2000
假设你看见一个茶壶
03:34
and the teapot is
78
199000
3000
并且这个茶壶
03:37
filled with hot water.
79
202000
2000
装满了热水
03:39
And you then ask the question:
80
204000
2000
然后你问了个问题
03:41
Why is the water hot?
81
206000
2000
为什么水是热的？
03:43
And that's a simple question.
82
208000
2000
这是个简单的问题
03:45
It's like, what is simplicity?
83
210000
2000
就像：什么事简洁？
03:47
One answer would be:
84
212000
2000
其中一个答案可能是
03:49
because the kinetic energy of the water molecules is high
85
214000
2000
因为水分子的动能很高
03:51
and they bounce against things rapidly --
86
216000
2000
使得他们之间迅速碰撞
03:53
that's a kind of physical science argument.
87
218000
3000
这是个物理学要讨论的问题
03:56
A second argument would be:
88
221000
2000
第二个答案可能是
03:58
because it was sitting on a stove with the flame on --
89
223000
3000
因为它仍然在点着火的火炉上
04:01
that's an historical argument.
90
226000
2000
那是个时间上的论点
04:03
A third is that I wanted hot water
91
228000
2000
第三个解释是，我想要热水
04:05
for tea --
92
230000
2000
来泡茶
04:07
that's an intentional argument.
93
232000
2000
那是个内在意识的问题
04:09
And, since this is coming from a moral philosopher,
94
234000
2000
然而，来自道德哲学家的答案
04:11
the fourth would be that it's part of God's plan for the universe.
95
236000
3000
即第四可能是，那是上帝对宇宙计划的一部分
04:14
All of these are possibilities.
96
239000
2000
所有的这些答案都是可能的
04:16
The point is that you get into trouble
97
241000
3000
问题是，你陷入了麻烦
04:19
when you ask a single question
98
244000
2000
当你问一个问题
04:21
with a single box for an answer,
99
246000
2000
只能有一个答案
04:23
in which that single question actually is many questions
100
248000
3000
然而这一个问题实际上是许多的问题
04:26
with quite different meanings,
101
251000
2000
这些问题有不同的含义
04:28
but with the same words.
102
253000
3000
却能用相同的文字描述
04:31
Asking, "What is simplicity?" I think falls in that category.
103
256000
3000
问题，什么事简洁？我认为应归于类别范畴
04:35
What is the state of science?
104
260000
2000
什么是科学的国度？
04:37
And, interestingly, complexity
105
262000
2000
完整，复杂
04:39
is very highly evolved.
106
264000
2000
是高端的进化
04:41
We have a lot of interesting information
107
266000
2000
我们有很多关于复杂是什么的
04:43
about what complexity is.
108
268000
2000
有趣信息
04:45
Simplicity, for reasons
109
270000
2000
简洁，由于
04:47
that are a little bit obscure,
110
272000
2000
它有些模糊
04:49
is almost not pursued,
111
274000
2000
所以几乎不能达到
04:51
at least in the academic world.
112
276000
2000
至少在学术界很难实现
04:53
We academics -- I am an academic --
113
278000
2000
我们的一些学者--我也是学者
04:55
we love complexity.
114
280000
2000
我们喜欢复杂
04:57
You can write papers about complexity,
115
282000
2000
我们可以写关于复杂的论文
04:59
and the nice thing about complexity is
116
284000
2000
关于复杂有趣的是
05:01
it's fundamentally intractable in many ways,
117
286000
2000
在许多方面它从根本上难以把握
05:03
so you're not responsible for outcomes. (Laughter)
118
288000
3000
因此，你不必为结果负责
05:06
Simplicity -- all of you really would like
119
291000
3000
简洁---你们大家喜欢的
05:09
your Waring Blender in the morning
120
294000
2000
早上你的搅拌机
05:11
to make whatever a Waring Blender does,
121
296000
2000
来做搅拌机该做的
05:13
but not explode or play Beethoven.
122
298000
3000
但绝不是爆炸或者演奏贝多芬曲目
05:16
You're not interested in the limits of these things.
123
301000
3000
你对这些东西的局限性不感兴趣
05:19
So what one is interested in
124
304000
2000
你感兴趣的是
05:21
has a lot to do with the rewards of the system.
125
306000
3000
这个系统的许多好处
05:24
And there's a lot of rewards in thinking
126
309000
2000
去思考一下
05:26
about complexity and emergence,
127
311000
2000
复杂和紧急情况将会有很多好处
05:28
not so much in thinking about simplicity.
128
313000
3000
而去想简单就没有那么什么好处
05:31
One of the things I want to do
129
316000
2000
其中我想做的一件事是
05:33
is to help you with a very important task --
130
318000
3000
是帮助你完成一项重要的工作
05:36
which you may not know that you have very often --
131
321000
3000
这项工作你可能没有意识到呢经常做
05:39
which is to understand
132
324000
2000
那就是理解
05:41
how to sit next to a physicist at a dinner party
133
326000
3000
在晚宴中怎样坐在物理学家旁边
05:44
and have a conversation. (Laughter)
134
329000
2000
怎样和他交谈
05:46
And the words that I would like you to focus on
135
331000
3000
我想让你把焦点集中在这两个词上
05:49
are complexity and emergence,
136
334000
2000
复杂 和紧急
05:51
because these will enable you to start the conversation
137
336000
3000
因为它们会让你开始一段对话
05:54
and then daydream about other things.
138
339000
2000
然后幻想其它事情
05:56
(Laughter)
139
341000
3000
（笑）
05:59
All right, what is complexity in this view of things,
140
344000
3000
好了，观察下这件事什么是复杂的？
06:02
and what is emergence?
141
347000
2000
什么是紧急的？
06:04
We have, actually, a pretty good working definition of complexity.
142
349000
3000
事实上我们已经有了一个很好的关于复杂的定义
06:07
It is a system, like traffic,
143
352000
2000
它是一个系统，就像交通
06:09
which has components.
144
354000
2000
有很多的组成部分
06:11
The components interact with one another.
145
356000
2000
这些部分整合在一起形成一个整体
06:13
These are cars and drivers. They dissipate energy.
146
358000
3000
有汽车和司机。他们消耗能量
06:16
It turns out that, whenever you have that system,
147
361000
2000
结果是，无论何时，你拥有那个系统
06:18
weird stuff happens,
148
363000
2000
奇怪的事情都会发生
06:20
and you in Los Angeles
149
365000
2000
可能身处洛杉矶的你
06:22
probably know this better than anyone.
150
367000
3000
知道这个比任何一个都好
06:25
Here's another example,
151
370000
2000
这里还有个例子
06:27
which I put up because
152
372000
2000
我举这个例子是因为
06:29
it's an example of really important current science.
153
374000
3000
这是个现代科学中一个真实而重要的例子
06:32
You can't possibly read that. It's not intended that you read it,
154
377000
3000
你不可能读过。你不会想去读。
06:35
but that's a tiny part
155
380000
2000
但是这只是发生在体内
06:37
of the chemical reactions going on
156
382000
2000
每个细胞中的化学反应的
06:39
in each of your cells at any given moment.
157
384000
3000
一小部分
06:42
And it's like the traffic that you see.
158
387000
3000
这就像你看到的交通
06:45
The amazing thing about the cell is that
159
390000
2000
关于细胞让人不可思议的是
06:47
it actually does maintain a fairly stable
160
392000
2000
它确确实实与其它细胞保持
06:49
working relationship with other cells,
161
394000
3000
稳定的工作协同关系
06:52
but we don't know why.
162
397000
2000
但是我们不知道原因
06:54
Anyone who tells you that we understand life,
163
399000
2000
任何告诉你我们理解生命人
06:56
walk away.
164
401000
2000
请走开
06:59
And let me reduce this to the simplest level.
165
404000
3000
接着，让我把这件事降到最简单的水平
07:02
We've heard from Bill Gates recently.
166
407000
2000
我们曾经收到Bill Gates 的来信
07:04
All of us, to some extent, study
167
409000
2000
我们所有的人，在某种程度上，
07:06
this thing called a Bill Gates.
168
411000
2000
学习Bill Gates
07:08
Terrific. You learn everything you can about that.
169
413000
2000
非常好！你学习到了你能学到的东西
07:10
And then there's another kind of thing that you might study,
170
415000
3000
然后又有一些其它方面的东西你可以学
07:13
and you study that hard.
171
418000
2000
你努力的学习
07:15
That's a Bono, this is a Bono.
172
420000
2000
那是Bono,这是Bono
07:17
But then, if you know everything you can know about those two things,
173
422000
3000
但是然后，假如你了解了你可以了解的关于这两样东西的所有细节
07:20
and you put them together,
174
425000
2000
又把他们总结在一起
07:22
what can you say about this combination?
175
427000
2000
那么，你能对这种结合说些什么呢？
07:24
The answer is, not a lot.
176
429000
2000
答案是：并不多！
07:26
And that's complexity.
177
431000
2000
那就是复杂
07:28
Now, imagine building that up to a city, or to a society,
178
433000
3000
现在，想象一下一个城市一个社会的建立
07:31
and you've got, obviously, an interesting problem.
179
436000
3000
很明显，你发现了一个有趣的问题
07:34
All right, so let me give you an example
180
439000
3000
好的，现在让我给你们举个
07:37
of simplicity
181
442000
2000
简单的例子
07:39
of a particular kind.
182
444000
2000
详细说明
07:41
And I want to introduce a word
183
446000
2000
然后我想介绍一个词
07:43
that I think is very useful,
184
448000
2000
我想这个词很有用
07:45
which is stacking.
185
450000
2000
就是堆积
07:47
And I'm going to use stacking for a kind of simplicity
186
452000
3000
我要简单的堆叠一下
07:50
that has the characteristic
187
455000
2000
这是很典型的
07:52
that it is so simple
188
457000
2000
它简单
07:54
and so reliable
189
459000
2000
又可行
07:56
that I can build things with it.
190
461000
2000
我可以用它来组合东西
07:58
Or I'm going to use simple to mean
191
463000
2000
或者说我要用简单的东西来实现
08:00
reliable, predictable, repeatable.
192
465000
3000
可靠性，可预言性和可重复性
08:05
And I'm going to use as an example the Internet,
193
470000
2000
我想用一个例子，互联网
08:07
because it's a particularly good example
194
472000
2000
因为它是个特别好的关于
08:09
of stacked simplicity.
195
474000
3000
堆积简单的例子
08:12
We call it a complex system, which it is,
196
477000
2000
我们就称之为复杂系统
08:14
but it's also something else.
197
479000
3000
但是也意味着其它
08:17
The Internet starts with mathematics,
198
482000
3000
互联网起始于数学
08:20
it starts with binary.
199
485000
2000
起始于二进制法则
08:22
And if you look at the list of things on the bottom,
200
487000
3000
如果你看下底部的菜单
08:25
we are familiar with the Arabic numbers
201
490000
2000
有我们熟知的阿拉伯数字
08:27
one to 10 and so on.
202
492000
2000
1到10等
08:29
In binary, one is 0001,
203
494000
3000
在二进制中，1用001表示
08:32
seven is 0111.
204
497000
3000
7用0111表示
08:35
The question is: Why is binary
205
500000
2000
问题是：为什么二进制
08:37
simpler than Arabic?
206
502000
2000
比阿拉伯数字简单？
08:39
And the answer is, simply,
207
504000
2000
答案是，简单
08:41
that if I hold up three fingers, you can count that easily,
208
506000
3000
如果你举起三个手指，你可以很容易的数清
08:44
but if I hold up this,
209
509000
2000
但是如果你举起这个
08:46
it's sort of hard to say that I just did seven.
210
511000
2000
就很难这是7
08:48
The virtue of binary is that it's the simplest possible way
211
513000
3000
它的优点是这可能是表示数字
08:51
of representing numbers.
212
516000
2000
最简单的方式
08:53
Anything else is more complicated.
213
518000
2000
其它都是复杂的
08:55
You can catch errors with it,
214
520000
2000
你可能会犯错
08:57
it's unambiguous in its reading,
215
522000
2000
在读取时很模糊
08:59
there are lots of good things about binary.
216
524000
2000
关于二进制还有很多好的方面
09:01
So it is very, very simple
217
526000
2000
因此它非常非常简单
09:03
once you learn how to read it.
218
528000
2000
只要你知道怎么去读
09:05
Now, if you like to represent
219
530000
2000
现在如果你想表示
09:07
this zero and one of binary,
220
532000
2000
一下二进制的和1
09:09
you need a device.
221
534000
2000
你需要一个工具
09:11
And think of things in your life
222
536000
2000
想象一下你生活中
09:13
that are binary,
223
538000
2000
是用二进制表示的东西
09:15
one of them is light switches.
224
540000
2000
其中一个是电灯开关
09:17
They can be on and off. That's binary.
225
542000
2000
它们可以是开或关，这是二元的
09:19
Now wall switches, we all know, fail.
226
544000
3000
我们都知道，墙体开关，会失败
09:23
But our friends who are condensed matter physicists
227
548000
2000
但是我们的高分子物理学家朋友们
09:25
managed to come up, some 50 years ago,
228
550000
3000
可以做到，在50多年前
09:28
with a very nice device, shown under that bell jar,
229
553000
3000
用一种很好的设备，就是钟罩
09:31
which is a transistor.
230
556000
2000
它是一种晶体管
09:33
A transistor is nothing more than a wall switch.
231
558000
2000
晶体管于墙体开关没有区别
09:35
It turns things on and off,
232
560000
2000
它也是开或关
09:37
but it does so without moving parts
233
562000
2000
但是，它做到这一点不用动任何一部分
09:39
and it doesn't fail, basically, for a very long period of time.
234
564000
3000
基本上，可以保持很长一段时间，不会失效
09:42
So the second layer of simplicity
235
567000
3000
因此，第二简单的
09:45
was the transistor in the Internet.
236
570000
3000
是晶体管和互联网
09:48
So, since the transistor is so simple,
237
573000
3000
因此，既然晶体管如此简单
09:51
you can put lots of them together.
238
576000
2000
你可以将大量的晶体管组合在一起
09:53
And you put lots of them together and you come with
239
578000
2000
组合在一起后，你可以组成
09:55
something called integrated circuits.
240
580000
2000
完整的集成电路
09:57
And a current integrated circuit
241
582000
2000
集成电路
09:59
might have in each one of these chips
242
584000
2000
可能存在于这些芯片之中
10:01
something like a billion transistors,
243
586000
2000
像是十亿个晶体管
10:03
all of which have to work perfectly every time.
244
588000
3000
它们每次都必须以完美的状态工作
10:06
So that's the next layer of simplicity,
245
591000
3000
这是另一个层次的简洁
10:09
and, in fact, integrated circuits
246
594000
2000
并且,实际上,集成电路
10:11
are really simple in the sense that they,
247
596000
2000
确实是简单的
10:13
in general, work really well.
248
598000
2000
就它们总体上运转的很好来说
10:15
With integrated circuits, you can build cellphones.
249
600000
3000
用集成电路,你可以制造出手机
10:18
You all are accustomed to having your cellphones work
250
603000
3000
你们早已习惯于手机
10:21
the large majority of the time.
251
606000
2000
在大部分时间都能正常工作
10:23
In Boston ... Boston is a little bit like Namibia
252
608000
2000
在波士顿,波士顿与纳米比亚有些相似
10:25
in its cell phone coverage, (Laughter)
253
610000
2000
在她们的手机信号覆盖方面
10:27
so that we're not accustomed to that all the time,
254
612000
2000
所以我们还并不总是那么适应
10:29
but some of the time.
255
614000
3000
只是一段时间
10:32
But, in fact, if you have cell phones,
256
617000
2000
但是,实际上,如果你有手机
10:34
you can now go to this nice lady
257
619000
2000
你现在可以看这位美女
10:36
who's somewhere like Namibia,
258
621000
2000
她像是个纳米比亚人
10:38
and who is extremely happy with the fact
259
623000
2000
并且她非常激动
10:40
that although she does not have
260
625000
2000
尽管她没有
10:42
an master's degree in
261
627000
2000
一个麻省理工
10:44
electrical engineering from MIT,
262
629000
2000
电子工程硕士学位
10:46
she's nonetheless able to hack her cell phone
263
631000
2000
但她还是能够修改她的手机
10:48
to get power in some funny way.
264
633000
3000
使它能以某种滑稽的方式充电
10:51
And from that comes the Internet.
265
636000
2000
放下手机，我们来看看因特网
10:53
And this is a map of bitflows across the continent.
266
638000
3000
这是一幅大洲之间数据流量的图
10:56
The two blobs that are light in the middle there
267
641000
3000
图中非常亮的两块区域
10:59
are the United States and Europe.
268
644000
2000
分别是美国和欧洲
11:01
And then back to simplicity again.
269
646000
3000
然后，我们回到有关简单的讨论
11:04
So here we have what I think is one of the great ideas,
270
649000
3000
我们现在有Google
11:07
which is Google.
271
652000
2000
我认为那是最伟大的点子之一
11:09
Which, in this simple portal
272
654000
2000
在它简洁的页面中
11:11
makes the claim
273
656000
2000
Google称
11:13
that it makes accessible
274
658000
2000
可以使用户访问
11:15
all of the world's information.
275
660000
2000
全世界的信息
11:17
But the point is that
276
662000
2000
然而，要点是
11:19
that extraordinary simple idea
277
664000
3000
这个非凡的简单创意
11:22
rests on layers of simplicity
278
667000
3000
是基于若干简单的底层
11:25
each compounded into a complexity
279
670000
2000
而每层叠加起来就成为了一个复杂的东西
11:27
that is itself simple,
280
672000
2000
但就其可靠程度而言
11:29
in the sense that it is completely reliable.
281
674000
3000
它自身也确实是简单的
11:33
All right, let me then finish off
282
678000
2000
好了，让我来总结一下
11:35
with four general statements,
283
680000
3000
总共有四个陈述
11:39
an example and two aphorisms.
284
684000
3000
一个例子和两条格言
11:42
The characteristics, which I think
285
687000
2000
我想到了一些特征
11:44
are useful to think about for simple things:
286
689000
3000
它们有助于我们思考简洁的事物
11:47
First, they are predictable.
287
692000
3000
首先，它们是可预测的
11:51
Their behavior is predictable.
288
696000
2000
它们的行为是可以预测的
11:53
Now, one of the nice characteristics
289
698000
2000
这样，简洁的事物
11:55
of simple things
290
700000
2000
具有的一个很好的特征就是
11:57
is you know what it's going to do, in general.
291
702000
2000
你通常知道它会去做什么
11:59
So simplicity and predictability
292
704000
2000
所以说，简洁和可预测
12:01
are characteristics of simple things.
293
706000
3000
是简单事物的特点
12:04
The second is, and this is a real world statement,
294
709000
3000
第二点，是源于实际的一点
12:07
they're cheap.
295
712000
2000
它们要便宜
12:09
If you have things that are cheap enough,
296
714000
2000
如果你手中的东西足够廉价
12:11
people will find uses for them,
297
716000
2000
人们就会去寻找它们的用途
12:13
even if they seem very primitive.
298
718000
2000
即使它看起来相当原始
12:15
So, for example, stones.
299
720000
2000
比如石头
12:17
You can build cathedrals out of stones,
300
722000
3000
你可以用石头建成教堂
12:20
you just have to know what it does.
301
725000
2000
你只需要知道它用来做什么
12:22
You carve them in blocks and then you
302
727000
2000
你将石头削成砖，然后你
12:24
pile them on top of one another,
303
729000
2000
将它们一个一个垒起来
12:26
and they support weight.
304
731000
2000
然后它们就能承重
12:28
So there has to be function, the function has to be predictable
305
733000
3000
所以说，它们要有一定的功能，功能要可以想得到
12:31
and the cost has to be low.
306
736000
2000
此外开销也必须低廉
12:33
What that means is
307
738000
2000
这就意味着
12:35
that you have to have a high performance
308
740000
2000
必须要有良好的性能
12:37
or value for cost.
309
742000
3000
或者价值成本
12:41
And then I would propose
310
746000
2000
然后，我会提出
12:43
as this last component
311
748000
2000
最后一个要素
12:45
that they serve, or have the potential to serve,
312
750000
3000
即它们能作为，或者有潜力成为
12:48
as building blocks.
313
753000
2000
构成的要素
12:50
That is, you can stack them.
314
755000
2000
那就是说，你可以堆砌它们
12:52
And stack can mean this way, or it can mean this way,
315
757000
3000
所说的堆砌可以是这样的，也可以是那样的
12:55
or it can mean in some arbitrary n-dimensional space.
316
760000
3000
再或者意味着任意的n维空间
12:58
But if you have something that has a function,
317
763000
2000
但是如果你有些具有某种功能的东西
13:00
and it's really cheap,
318
765000
2000
而且它非常便宜
13:02
people will find new ways of putting it together
319
767000
2000
人们就会找到新的方法将它们组合
13:04
to make new things.
320
769000
2000
来制作出新的事物
13:06
Cheap, functional, reliable things
321
771000
3000
廉价、有一定功能并且可靠的东西
13:09
unleash the creativity of people
322
774000
2000
解放了人们的创造力
13:11
who then build stuff that you could not imagine.
323
776000
3000
那些人之后制作出你想象不到的事物
13:14
There's no way of predicting the Internet
324
779000
3000
若是基于第一个晶体管
13:17
based on the first transistor.
325
782000
2000
肯定将没有办法预测因特网
13:19
It just is not possible.
326
784000
2000
它就是不可能
13:21
So these are the components.
327
786000
3000
以上就是这些要素
13:24
Now, the example
328
789000
2000
现在我想展示的
13:26
is something that I want to give you
329
791000
2000
这个例子是
13:28
from the work that we ourselves do.
330
793000
3000
来源于我们进行的工作
13:31
We are very interested in
331
796000
3000
我们致力于
13:34
delivering health care in the developing world,
332
799000
3000
对第三世界提供医疗援助
13:37
and one of the things that we wish to do in this particular business
333
802000
3000
并且我们在这件事情上想完成的
13:40
is to find a way of doing medical diagnosis
334
805000
3000
是尽可能找到
13:43
at as close to zero cost
335
808000
2000
一种几乎是零费用的
13:45
as we can manage.
336
810000
2000
医疗诊断方法
13:47
So, how does one do that?
337
812000
2000
嗯，一个人怎么才能做到这些？
13:49
This is a world in which there's no electricity,
338
814000
2000
第三世界没有电力
13:51
there's no money, there's no medical competence.
339
816000
3000
那里没有资金，没有医疗能力
13:54
And I don't want to spend your time in going through the details,
340
819000
3000
我不想用过程的细节浪费大家的时间
13:57
but in the lower right-hand corner,
341
822000
2000
但在右下角
13:59
you see an example of the kind of thing that we have.
342
824000
3000
你们可以看到我们现有的方案
14:02
It's a little paper chip.
343
827000
2000
那是一个很小的纸芯片
14:04
It has a few things printed on it
344
829000
2000
上面印了一些东西
14:06
using the same technology
345
831000
2000
印刷技术与
14:08
that you use for making comic books,
346
833000
2000
印制漫画书的相同
14:10
which was the inspiration for this particular idea.
347
835000
3000
正是这项技术为我们提供了灵感
14:13
And you put a drop, in this case, of urine at the bottom.
348
838000
3000
你滴一滴液体，对于这个纸芯片来说要滴上尿液
14:16
It wicks its way up into these little branches.
349
841000
3000
它被吸上去，进入这些小分支
14:19
You know, no power required.
350
844000
2000
你要知道，不需要其它能量
14:21
It turns colors. In this particular case,
351
846000
2000
它会变色。在这个特定情况下
14:23
you're reading kidney function.
352
848000
3000
正在看的是肾功能读数
14:26
And, since the health care worker
353
851000
3000
另外，由于这个地方的
14:29
of much of this part of the world
354
854000
2000
医疗工作者
14:31
is an 18 year-old with an AK-47,
355
856000
3000
通常是18岁左右，手拿AK-47
14:34
who happens to be out of work and is willing
356
859000
2000
碰巧没有工作，并且愿意
14:36
to go around and do this sort of thing,
357
861000
2000
四处转转然后做这类事情
14:38
he can take a picture of it with his cellphone,
358
863000
2000
他可以用自己的手机拍张照片
14:40
send the picture back to where there is a doctor,
359
865000
2000
而后将照片送回有医生的地方
14:42
and the doctor can look at it.
360
867000
2000
这样医生就能看到结果
14:44
So what you've done is to take a technology,
361
869000
3000
所以说，你所做的就是，用一种
14:47
which is available everywhere,
362
872000
2000
在任何地方都能用上的技术
14:49
make a device, which is extremely cheap,
363
874000
3000
做出一种极为廉价的装置
14:52
and make it in such a fashion
364
877000
2000
并且做成这种样子
14:54
that it is very, very reliable.
365
879000
2000
使它非常非常可靠
14:56
If we can pull this off,
366
881000
2000
如果我们能成功做到这些
14:58
if we can build more function,
367
883000
2000
如果我们可以加入更多功能
15:00
it will be stackable.
368
885000
2000
它将会是可以堆叠的
15:02
That is to say, if we can make the basic technology
369
887000
3000
那就是说，如果我们可以使一两样东西中
15:05
of one or two things work,
370
890000
2000
基本的技术生效
15:07
it will be applicable to a very, very
371
892000
2000
那它将可以适用于
15:09
large variety of human conditions,
372
894000
2000
各种不同的个人条件下
15:11
and hence, extendable in both
373
896000
2000
因此，也就具有延伸的潜力
15:13
vertical and horizontal directions.
374
898000
3000
无论是在水平、纵深方向
15:16
Part of my interest in this, I have to say,
375
901000
2000
不得不说，我的兴趣一部分
15:18
is that I would like to -- how do I put this politely? --
376
903000
3000
是我希望，或者说的客气一点
15:21
change the way, or maybe eviscerate,
377
906000
2000
改变，或者去除美国医疗体制
15:23
the capital structure of the U.S. health care system,
378
908000
3000
中资本就够的本质部分
15:26
which I think is fundamentally broken.
379
911000
3000
我认为那是从根本上坏掉的
15:29
So, let me close --
380
914000
2000
让我以--
15:31
(Applause)
381
916000
3000
（掌声）
15:34
Let me close with my two aphorisms.
382
919000
2000
让我以这两句警语作为结束
15:36
One of them is from Mr. Einstein,
383
921000
2000
其中一条来自爱因斯坦
15:38
and he says, "Everything should be made
384
923000
2000
他说，“所有的事物都要做到
15:40
as simple as possible, but not simpler."
385
925000
3000
尽量简洁但又不过分简单。”
15:43
And I think that's a very good way of thinking about the problem.
386
928000
3000
我认为那是思考这个问题非常好的方式
15:46
If you take too much out
387
931000
2000
如果你从简单的东西里
15:48
of something that's simple, you lose function.
388
933000
2000
去除太多，你就失去了它的功能
15:50
You have to have low cost,
389
935000
2000
你必须要做到低开销
15:52
but you also have to have a function.
390
937000
2000
但是你还需要功能
15:54
So you can't make it too simple.
391
939000
2000
所以说你不可以做得过于简单
15:56
And the second is a design issue,
392
941000
2000
第二条是设计的事情
15:58
and it's not directly relevant, but it's a nice statement.
393
943000
3000
它并不是那么相关，但它却是很好的叙述
16:01
This is by de Saint-Exupery.
394
946000
3000
这是de Saint-Exupery说的
16:04
And he says, "You know you've achieved perfection in design,
395
949000
3000
他说道：“你知道你的设计达到完美
16:07
not when you have nothing more to add,
396
952000
3000
不是因为你没有什么可以加上去，
16:10
but when you have nothing more to take away."
397
955000
2000
而是当你当你不能再去除些什么的时候。”
16:12
And that certainly is going in the right direction.
398
957000
3000
这句话的方向当然是对的
16:16
So, what I think one can begin to do
399
961000
3000
这是一个人可以用到并以之为开始的
16:19
with this kind of
400
964000
3000
就我所想，
16:22
cut at the word simplicity,
401
967000
2000
以简洁为目的
16:24
which doesn't cover Brancusi,
402
969000
2000
的精简
16:26
it doesn't answer the question of
403
971000
2000
这解释不了为什么说
16:28
why Mondrian is better or worse
404
973000
3000
蒙德里安的画比梵高的好还是坏
16:31
or simpler or less simpler than Van Gogh,
405
976000
2000
或者是比梵高的画简单还是复杂
16:33
and certainly doesn't address the question
406
978000
2000
而且也没有解释
16:35
of whether Mozart is simpler than Bach.
407
980000
3000
莫扎特的音乐是不是比巴赫的简单
16:38
But it does make a point --
408
983000
2000
但它确实明确了一点
16:40
which is one which, in a sense,
409
985000
2000
就是，在某种意义上
16:42
differentiates the real world of people who make things,
410
987000
3000
区分开制造的人
16:45
and the world of people who think about things,
411
990000
3000
和考虑这些东西的人
16:48
which is, there is an intellectual merit
412
993000
3000
这意味着，提出
16:51
to asking: How do we make things
413
996000
2000
“如何才能制造出
16:53
as simple as we can,
414
998000
2000
尽可能简单
16:55
as cheap as we can, as functional as we can
415
1000000
3000
尽可能廉价，尽量能发挥机能
16:58
and as freely interconnectable as we can?
416
1003000
3000
并能尽可能自由联系的东西”有了科学意义
17:01
If we make that kind of simplicity in our technology
417
1006000
3000
如果我们在技术中加入这种简洁
17:04
and then give it to you guys,
418
1009000
2000
然后将其传给你们
17:06
you can go off and do all kinds of fabulous things with it.
419
1011000
3000
你们离开之后就可以利用它做各种精彩纷呈的东西
17:09
Thank you very much.
420
1014000
2000
非常感谢
17:11
(Applause)
421
1016000
9000
（掌声）
17:20
Chris Anderson: Quick question.
422
1025000
2000
Chris Anderson: 问几个问题
17:22
So can you picture
423
1027000
3000
你能想象一下
17:25
that a science of simplicity
424
1030000
2000
有关简单的科学
17:27
might get to the point where
425
1032000
2000
可以切中要害，不管
17:29
you could look out at various systems --
426
1034000
2000
你查看的是什么样系统，
17:31
say a financial system or a legal system, health system -- and say,
427
1036000
3000
比如说，财政系统或者法律系统、医疗系统，再比如说
17:34
"That has got to the point of danger
428
1039000
2000
若是这些系统到了危险的境地
17:36
or dysfunctionality for the following reasons,
429
1041000
2000
或者因为某些原因无法工作
17:38
and this is how we might simplify it"?
430
1043000
2000
这是我们应该简化的方法么？
17:40
George Whitesides: Yes, I think you could. Because if you look
431
1045000
2000
George Whitesides:是的，我想你可以，因为如果你
17:42
at the components from which the system is made
432
1047000
2000
查看系统的组成部分
17:44
and examine their fragility, or their stability,
433
1049000
3000
并且检查它们的脆弱度，或者是它们的牢固度
17:47
you can probably build a kind of risk assessment based on that basis.
434
1052000
3000
你没准可以在那些基础之上建立起一种风险评估方式
17:50
CA: Have you started to do that?
435
1055000
2000
CA:你开始做这些了么？
17:52
I mean, with the health system, you got a sort of
436
1057000
2000
我的意思是，对于医疗系统，你有一种
17:54
radical solution on the cost side,
437
1059000
2000
在财政方面的根本方法
17:56
but in terms of the system itself?
438
1061000
2000
但是对于这个系统自身呢？
17:58
GW: Well, no.
439
1063000
2000
GW:厄，没有
18:00
How do I put that simply? No.
440
1065000
2000
我怎么去把它变得简单，不可能
18:02
CA: That was a simple, powerful answer. GW: Yes.
441
1067000
3000
CA:这是个简单、有力的回答。 GW:是的
18:05
CA: So, in terms of
442
1070000
2000
CA:那么，对于
18:07
that diagnostic technology that you've got,
443
1072000
2000
你所掌握的诊断技术而言
18:09
where is that, and when do you see that
444
1074000
2000
什么时候，并且你认为什么时候
18:11
maybe getting rolled out to scale.
445
1076000
2000
这种诊断方式会规模壮大
18:13
GW: That's coming out soon. I mean, the systems work,
446
1078000
3000
GW:那即将出现，我的意思是，那个系统开始工作
18:16
and we have to find out how to manufacture them and do things of this kind,
447
1081000
2000
并且我们必须找出怎么去制造出它们，并做这一类的事情
18:18
but the basic technology works.
448
1083000
2000
但是最基本的技术起了作用
18:20
CA: You've got a company set up to ...
449
1085000
2000
CA:你已经建立了一家公司来--
18:22
GW: A foundation, a foundation. Not-for-profit.
450
1087000
3000
GW:是一个基金会，基金会，非盈利的
18:25
CA: All right. Well, thank you so much for your talk. Thank you. (Applause)
451
1090000
3000
CA:好的，非常感谢您的演讲，谢谢
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
George Whitesides - ChemistIn his legendary career in chemistry, George Whitesides has been a pioneer in microfabrication and nanoscale self-assembly. Now, he's fabbing a diagnostic lab on a chip.
Why you should listen
Someday Harvard chemistry professor George Whitesides will take the time to look back on the 950 scientific articles he's coauthored, the dozen companies he's co-founded or the 50-plus patents on which he's named. (He works in four main areas: biochemistry, materials science, catalysis and physical organic chemistry.) In the meantime, he's trying to invent a future where medical diagnosis can be done by anyone for little or no cost. He's co-founded a nonprofit called Diagnostics for All that aims to provide dirt-cheap diagnostic devices, to provide healthcare in a world where cost is everything.
Among his solutions is a low-cost "lab-on-a-chip," made of paper and carpet tape. The paper wicks bodily fluids -- urine, for example -- and turns color to provide diagnostic information, such as how much glucose or protein is present. His goal is to distribute these simple paper diagnostic systems to developing countries, where people with basic training can administer tests and send results to distant doctors via cameraphone.
George Whitesides | Speaker | TED.com