TED2013
Andrew McAfee: What will future jobs look like?
Andrew McAfee: 未來的工作是什麼樣子？
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經濟學家 Andrew McAfee 提出，未來機械人可能會搶走許多我們現有的工作。在這次遠見卓識的講話中，他想透了未來的工作會是如何，並指出如何教育下一代應對。
Andrew McAfee - Management theorist
Andrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society. Full bio
Andrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
The writer George Eliot cautioned us that,
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作家喬治‧艾略特 (George Eliot)
曾警告我們，
曾警告我們，
00:15
among all forms of mistake,
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在所有類型的錯誤之中，
00:17
prophesy is the most gratuitous.
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預言是最沒根據的，
00:19
The person that we would all acknowledge
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我們都要感謝這位作家。
00:21
as her 20th-century counterpart, Yogi Berra, agreed.
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就是二十世紀的
尤吉‧貝拉 (Yogi Berra) 也同意，
尤吉‧貝拉 (Yogi Berra) 也同意，
00:25
He said, "It's tough to make predictions,
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他說：「預測很困難，
00:27
especially about the future."
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尤其對未來的預測。」
00:30
I'm going to ignore their cautions
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我不理會他們的警告，
00:32
and make one very specific forecast.
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而且作出一項特別的預測。
00:34
In the world that we are creating very quickly,
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現今的我們創造步調很快，
00:36
we're going to see more and more things
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我們將要看到，
00:38
that look like science fiction,
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像科幻小說一樣的東西越來越多
00:40
and fewer and fewer things that look like jobs.
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而像工作的事越來越少
00:43
Our cars are very quickly going to start driving themselves,
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在不久將來，汽車懂得自行駕駛，
00:46
which means we're going to need fewer truck drivers.
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意味著我們需要更少的貨車司機，
00:48
We're going to hook Siri up to Watson
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我們把 Siri 虛擬個人助理
與 IBM 超級電腦華生連接起來，
與 IBM 超級電腦華生連接起來，
00:51
and use that to automate a lot of the work
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並使用這些虛擬助理，
自動執行大量工作，
自動執行大量工作，
00:53
that's currently done by customer service reps
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而現時這些工作須由客服處理、
00:55
and troubleshooters and diagnosers,
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解答疑難問題和診斷。
00:58
and we're already taking R2D2,
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我們已經使用阿凸（R2D2），
01:00
painting him orange, and putting him to work
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替他塗上橙色，把他投入工作，
01:04
carrying shelves around warehouses,
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叫他到倉庫拿貨，
01:06
which means we need a lot fewer people
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意味著我們不需要那麼多的工人
01:08
to be walking up and down those aisles.
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在走道上走來走去。
01:10
Now, for about 200 years,
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約二百年來人們一直在說的，
01:14
people have been saying exactly what I'm telling you --
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同時也是我現在告訴你們的 —
01:16
the age of technological unemployment is at hand —
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這年代因科技而產生的失業問題，
就在眼前 —
就在眼前 —
01:19
starting with the Luddites smashing looms in Britain
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由英國勒德分子 (Luddites)
搗毀織布機開始，
搗毀織布機開始，
01:22
just about two centuries ago,
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大約兩個世紀前，
01:23
and they have been wrong.
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他們一直是錯的。
01:25
Our economies in the developed world have coasted along
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已發展國家的經濟
01:28
on something pretty close to full employment.
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幾乎無法實現全民就業。
01:30
Which brings up a critical question:
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這帶出了一條關鍵問題：
01:32
Why is this time different, if it really is?
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為什麼這次不一樣了，
真的不一樣嗎？
真的不一樣嗎？
01:35
The reason it's different is that, just in the past few years,
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不一樣的原因是，
在過去的幾年，
在過去的幾年，
01:38
our machines have started demonstrating skills
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我們的機器開始有了
01:40
they have never, ever had before:
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一些前所未見的能力
01:43
understanding, speaking, hearing, seeing,
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理解、說話、聆聽、觀看、
01:46
answering, writing, and they're still acquiring new skills.
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答問、書寫，他們仍在學習新的技巧，
01:50
For example, mobile humanoid robots
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例如：行動人型機器人
01:53
are still incredibly primitive,
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仍是令人難以置信的原始，
01:55
but the research arm of the Defense Department
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但是國防部的研究部門
01:57
just launched a competition
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剛剛發起了一場競賽，
01:58
to have them do things like this,
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使他們製造一些類似東西，
02:00
and if the track record is any guide,
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如果跟據過往成績紀錄以作參考，
02:02
this competition is going to be successful.
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這樣的競賽將會成功。
02:05
So when I look around, I think the day is not too far off at all
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現在看起來，
我猜想這日子離我們不遠了
我猜想這日子離我們不遠了
02:08
when we're going to have androids
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人型機器人將會做很多的事，
02:10
doing a lot of the work that we are doing right now.
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做很多目前人們在的工作
02:13
And we're creating a world where there is going to be
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我們正在創造一個世界，那裡擁有
02:17
more and more technology and fewer and fewer jobs.
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的科技越來越多，職位卻越來越少，
02:21
It's a world that Erik Brynjolfsson and I are calling
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艾瑞克‧班恩約福森 (Erik Brynjolfsson)
和我叫這世界為
和我叫這世界為
02:23
"the new machine age."
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「新機器時代」。
02:24
The thing to keep in mind is that
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我們要牢記
02:27
this is absolutely great news.
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這絕對是個好消息，
02:29
This is the best economic news on the planet these days.
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這些日子裡，在這顆星球上，
最大的經濟新聞。
最大的經濟新聞。
02:32
Not that there's a lot of competition, right?
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並不是那麼多競爭，對嗎？
02:36
This is the best economic news we have these days
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就是這些裡最大的經濟新聞，
02:38
for two main reasons.
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原因有二：
02:39
The first is, technological progress is what allows us
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首先，科技進步容許我們
02:42
to continue this amazing recent run that we're on
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繼續這項驚人的運作，
而運作正進行中，
而運作正進行中，
02:46
where output goes up over time,
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產量已持續上升了一段時間，
02:49
while at the same time, prices go down,
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而同一時間，價格卻在下降，
02:52
and volume and quality just continue to explode.
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數量和質量不斷爆發。
02:56
Now, some people look at this and talk about
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現在，有些人看看這個情況，
並且談論起
並且談論起
02:58
shallow materialism,
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墮落物質主義，
03:00
but that's absolutely the wrong way to look at it.
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但是，這絕對是錯誤的看法，
03:02
This is abundance, which is exactly
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我們的經濟體系提供
數量龐大的供應，
數量龐大的供應，
03:05
what we want our economic system to provide.
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這也正是我們所期待的。
03:08
The second reason that the new machine age
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新機器時代是一項好消息的
03:11
is such great news is that, once the androids
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第二個原因為，一旦人型機器人
03:14
start doing jobs, we don't have to do them anymore,
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開始做這些工作，那麼我們不需要
做同樣的工作了，
做同樣的工作了，
03:17
and we get freed up from drudgery and toil.
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可從苦差和勞碌工作中得到釋放。
03:21
Now, when I talk about this with my friends
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現在當我和身在劍橋 (麻省)
03:23
in Cambridge and Silicon Valley, they say,
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和矽谷的朋友們說起這話題時，
他們說：
他們說：
03:25
"Fantastic. No more drudgery, no more toil.
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「極好的。再沒有苦差，
再沒有勞碌的工作。
再沒有勞碌的工作。
03:27
This gives us the chance to imagine
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這樣就給我們機會去想像
03:29
an entirely different kind of society,
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一個完全不同的社會，
03:32
a society where the creators and the discoverers
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在這裡，創作人、發現者、
03:35
and the performers and the innovators
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表演者、創新者、
03:36
come together with their patrons and their financiers
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與他們的贊助者和融資者一起，
03:40
to talk about issues, entertain, enlighten,
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談及不同議題，並款待、開導、
03:43
provoke each other."
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挑釁彼此。」
03:45
It's a society really, that looks a lot like the TED Conference.
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這樣的社會看起來真的就像一場
TED 研習會，
TED 研習會，
03:49
And there's actually a huge amount of truth here.
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而事實上這裡有許多真理。
03:52
We are seeing an amazing flourishing taking place.
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我們看到令人驚異的百花齊放，
03:55
In a world where it is just about as easy
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在這世界，產生一件物體
03:57
to generate an object as it is to print a document,
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就像打印一份文件那麼的容易，
04:00
we have amazing new possibilities.
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我們有異乎尋常的新可能，
04:02
The people who used to be craftsmen and hobbyists
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過往的技工、業餘愛好者，
04:06
are now makers, and they're responsible
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現在成為了製造業者，他們負責
04:08
for massive amounts of innovation.
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大量的創新，
04:10
And artists who were formerly constrained
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而藝術家過往因種種制約
04:13
can now do things that were never, ever possible
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而未能做到的事，
04:16
for them before.
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現在可做到了。
04:18
So this is a time of great flourishing,
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所以，現在就是繁華昌盛的年代，
04:20
and the more I look around, the more convinced I become
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我越看得多，我更加堅信
04:23
that this quote, from the physicist Freeman Dyson,
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物理學家弗里曼‧戴森
(Freeman Dyson) 所說的
(Freeman Dyson) 所說的
04:26
is not hyperbole at all.
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根本不是誇飾，
04:28
This is just a plain statement of the facts.
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只是簡單清楚的事實陳述。
04:31
We are in the middle of an astonishing period.
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我們正處於令人驚訝的時期當中。
04:32
["Technology is a gift of God. After the gift of life it is perhaps the greatest of God's gifts. It is the mother of civilizations, of arts and of sciences." — Freeman Dyson]
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「科技是上帝賜予的禮物。繼生命的
禮物之後，這可是上帝賜予的最大
禮物。這是一切文明、藝術、科學
之母。」 — 弗里曼‧戴森
禮物之後，這可是上帝賜予的最大
禮物。這是一切文明、藝術、科學
之母。」 — 弗里曼‧戴森
04:33
Which brings up another great question:
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這帶來另一個大問題，
04:36
What could possibly go wrong in this new machine age?
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在這個新機器時代，可會在什麼樣
的情況下出錯呢？
的情況下出錯呢？
04:39
Right? Great, hang up, flourish, go home.
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對嗎？很好、拖延、繁榮、回家，
04:42
We're going to face two really thorny sets of challenges
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我們正面對兩項相當棘手的挑戰，
04:45
as we head deeper into the future that we're creating.
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尤其當我們朝著我們創造的未來
一步步前進，
一步步前進，
04:48
The first are economic, and they're really nicely summarized
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第一是經濟上的，
一個未經證實的故事
一個未經證實的故事
04:51
in an apocryphal story about a back-and-forth
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貼切地做了總結
04:54
between Henry Ford II and Walter Reuther,
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那是亨利‧福特二世與華特‧魯瑟之間
的反覆答問，
的反覆答問，
04:57
who was the head of the auto workers union.
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華特‧魯瑟是汽車工會領袖，
05:00
They were touring one of the new modern factories,
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他們在新的現代化工廠巡視中，
05:02
and Ford playfully turns to Reuther and says,
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福特以開玩笑的口吻對魯瑟說：
05:05
"Hey Walter, how are you going to get these robots
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「你如何要這些機械人們
05:07
to pay union dues?"
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向你的工會交會費？」
05:09
And Reuther shoots back, "Hey Henry,
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魯瑟連珠發炮般回應對方：「嘿，亨利，
05:11
how are you going to get them to buy cars?"
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你怎樣使它們購買你的汽車？」
05:15
Reuther's problem in that anecdote
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這段趣聞軼事中魯瑟的問題是，
05:18
is that it is tough to offer your labor to an economy
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你很難向一個經濟體提供勞動力，
05:22
that's full of machines,
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而這個經濟體滿是機械人。
05:24
and we see this very clearly in the statistics.
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統計讓我們看清楚這件事，
05:26
If you look over the past couple decades
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如果你回望過去幾十年的
05:29
at the returns to capital -- in other words, corporate profits --
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資本收益率，換句話說
即是企業利潤，
即是企業利潤，
05:32
we see them going up,
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我們見到持續上升，
05:34
and we see that they're now at an all-time high.
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現在利潤看起來是空前的高，
05:36
If we look at the returns to labor, in other words
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如果我們看一下工作回報，簡言之，
05:39
total wages paid out in the economy,
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在整個經濟裡，資方所給付的總工資，
05:41
we see them at an all-time low
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我們看到工資卻是空前的低，
05:43
and heading very quickly in the opposite direction.
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而且兩者快速向相反方向而行，
05:46
So this is clearly bad news for Reuther.
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所以對魯瑟來說，這真是一則壞消息，
05:48
It looks like it might be great news for Ford,
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對福特來說，看起來倒像是一則好消息，
05:52
but it's actually not. If you want to sell
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然而實際上並不是好消息。如果你想
05:54
huge volumes of somewhat expensive goods to people,
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向人們銷售大批價格稍微
高一點的貨品，
高一點的貨品，
05:57
you really want a large, stable, prosperous middle class.
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你就真的想要一群穩定的、富足的、
為數可觀的中產階級，
為數可觀的中產階級，
06:01
We have had one of those in America
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在美國我們就有這樣的一群，
06:03
for just about the entire postwar period.
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約在整段戰後的時期，
06:06
But the middle class is clearly under huge threat right now.
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然而中產階級明顯地
正遭逢巨大的威脅，
正遭逢巨大的威脅，
06:10
We all know a lot of the statistics,
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我們都知道許多的統計資料，
06:12
but just to repeat one of them,
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這裡只是重複一項罷，
06:14
median income in America has actually gone down
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事實上，美國的收入中位數
06:17
over the past 15 years,
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在過去 15 年都下跌了，
06:18
and we're in danger of getting trapped
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而我們身在危險中，
06:20
in some vicious cycle where inequality and polarization
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受困於惡性的循環，
不平等現象和兩極分化
不平等現象和兩極分化
06:24
continue to go up over time.
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經過一段時間後繼續往上走，
06:27
The societal challenges that come along
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我們要留意那些社會上的不公平。
06:30
with that kind of inequality deserve some attention.
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我們要留意那些社會上的不公平。
06:32
There are a set of societal challenges
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事實上我並不擔心
06:34
that I'm actually not that worried about,
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那一連串的社會挑戰，
06:36
and they're captured by images like this.
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他們被這樣形容，
06:38
This is not the kind of societal problem
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但這並不是我所關心的
06:40
that I am concerned about.
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社會問題種類。
06:42
There is no shortage of dystopian visions
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反烏托邦的願景並不短缺，
06:45
about what happens when our machines become self-aware,
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當我們的機器變為擁有自我意識時，
06:48
and they decide to rise up and coordinate attacks against us.
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而機械人決定揭竿起義，
並聯合起來攻擊我們，
並聯合起來攻擊我們，
06:51
I'm going to start worrying about those
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我開始擔心終有一天，
06:53
the day my computer becomes aware of my printer.
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我的電腦察覺到我的印表機，
06:56
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(笑聲) (掌聲)
07:00
So this is not the set of challenges we really need to worry about.
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所以這不是我們真正需要擔心的挑戰，
07:03
To tell you the kinds of societal challenges
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為了告訴你在新機器時代
07:06
that are going to come up in the new machine age,
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將面對的各種社會挑戰，
07:08
I want to tell a story about two stereotypical American workers.
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我想告訴你一個故事，
是關於兩個陳規定型的美國工人，
是關於兩個陳規定型的美國工人，
07:12
And to make them really stereotypical,
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為使故事讀來真的是刻板印象的，
07:13
let's make them both white guys.
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就當他們是兩個白種男人罷，
07:15
And the first one is a college-educated
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第一個是受過大學教育的，
07:19
professional, creative type, manager,
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專業、創作型的、經理、
07:22
engineer, doctor, lawyer, that kind of worker.
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工程師、醫師、律師、那類型的工作者，
07:25
We're going to call him "Ted."
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我們稱他為「泰德」，
07:28
He's at the top of the American middle class.
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他位處美國中產階級的頂端。
07:30
His counterpart is not college-educated
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另一個並沒有接受大學教育，
07:33
and works as a laborer, works as a clerk,
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他是一個勞動者、普通文員、
07:36
does low-level white collar or blue collar work in the economy.
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做一些低級白領或藍領階級的工作，
07:39
We're going to call that guy "Bill."
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我們稱他為「比爾」。
07:41
And if you go back about 50 years,
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如果你回到大約五十年前，
07:44
Bill and Ted were leading remarkably similar lives.
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比爾和泰德過著極其相似的生活，
07:47
For example, in 1960 they were both very likely
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例如：在 1960 年，他們倆極有可能
07:50
to have full-time jobs, working at least 40 hours a week.
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同樣得到全職職位，
每週工作總時數至少四十小時，
每週工作總時數至少四十小時，
07:53
But as the social researcher Charles Murray has documented,
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但是社會研究員查爾斯‧麥瑞
(Charles Murray) 用文件證明了，
(Charles Murray) 用文件證明了，
07:57
as we started to automate the economy,
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當我們開始建立自動化時，
07:59
and 1960 is just about when computers started to be used by businesses,
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而 1960 年就是我們在日常工作中
剛剛開始使用電腦的時候，
剛剛開始使用電腦的時候，
08:04
as we started to progressively inject technology
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我們開始逐步向市場經濟
08:07
and automation and digital stuff into the economy,
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注入科技、自動化、數位化的東西，
08:09
the fortunes of Bill and Ted diverged a lot.
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比爾和泰德兩人的財富
就此各走各路。
就此各走各路。
08:12
Over this time frame, Ted has continued
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經過一段時間後，泰德繼續
08:14
to hold a full-time job. Bill hasn't.
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持有一份全職工作，
比爾則沒有全職工作，
比爾則沒有全職工作，
08:17
In many cases, Bill has left the economy entirely,
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在許多情況下，比爾完全
離開了經濟體系，
離開了經濟體系，
08:21
and Ted very rarely has.
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而泰德則很少離開。
08:24
Over time, Ted's marriage has stayed quite happy.
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過了一段時間後，泰德的婚姻
仍然幸福美滿，
仍然幸福美滿，
08:27
Bill's hasn't.
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比爾的卻不美滿，
08:29
And Ted's kids have grown up in a two-parent home,
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泰德的小孩在健全
完整的家庭中長大，
完整的家庭中長大，
08:32
while Bill's absolutely have not over time.
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然而長時間來看, 比爾的小孩卻不是。
08:35
Other ways that Bill is dropping out of society?
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那麼比爾是否退出了社會？
08:38
He's decreased his voting in presidential elections,
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他總統選舉的投票次數減少了
08:41
and he's started to go to prison a lot more often.
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而他更開始進出監獄，次數漸多，
08:45
So I cannot tell a happy story about these social trends,
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我並不是在陳述一個令人開心的社會潮流
08:49
and they don't show any signs of reversing themselves.
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他們沒有任何可扭轉人生的機會
08:52
They're also true no matter which ethnic group
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無論哪個民族
08:55
or demographic group we look at,
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或人口的數量分布結構，
他們也都如此，
他們也都如此，
08:57
and they're actually getting so severe
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實際上，他們變得如此嚴重，
08:59
that they're in danger of overwhelming
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有覆沒的危險，
09:00
even the amazing progress we made with the Civil Rights Movement.
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即使我們在民權運動取得
驚人的進展。
驚人的進展。
09:04
And what my friends in Silicon Valley
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而我在矽谷和在劍橋(麻省)的朋友
09:07
and Cambridge are overlooking is that they're Ted.
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所忽略的，就是他們是泰德，
09:12
They're living these amazingly busy, productive lives,
202
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他們過著這些異常忙碌
兼有意義的生活，
兼有意義的生活，
09:15
and they've got all the benefits to show from that,
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2390
從那裡看到，他們得到了所有優勢，
09:18
while Bill is leading a very different life.
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而比爾則過著非常不同的生活。
09:20
They're actually both proof of how right Voltaire was
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實際上他們都證實了伏爾泰
談到工作的好處，
談到工作的好處，
09:22
when he talked about the benefits of work,
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他所說的都是正確，
09:25
and the fact that it saves us from not one but three great evils.
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事實是工作救我們脫離不只一種
而是三種大惡，
而是三種大惡，
09:28
["Work saves a man from three great evils: boredom, vice and need." — Voltaire]
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997
「工作使人遠離三種罪惡：無聊、惡習
和匱乏。」 — 伏爾泰如是說。
和匱乏。」 — 伏爾泰如是說。
09:29
So with these challenges, what do we do about them?
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所以我們面對這些挑戰時
應做什麼呢？
應做什麼呢？
09:32
The economic playbook is surprisingly clear,
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2583
經濟劇本是出奇的清晰，
09:35
surprisingly straightforward, in the short term especially.
211
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3140
出奇的直截了當，特別是短期內，
09:38
The robots are not going to take all of our jobs in the next year or two,
212
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2892
在未來一至兩年，機械人不會拿走
我們所有的職位，
我們所有的職位，
09:41
so the classic Econ 101 playbook is going to work just fine:
213
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4468
所以經典的經濟學 101 劇本仍可
有效運用於實際情況，
有效運用於實際情況，
09:46
Encourage entrepreneurship,
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2152
鼓勵創業、
09:48
double down on infrastructure,
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雙倍減低基礎設施的投資、
09:50
and make sure we're turning out people
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確定我們教育系統培養出來的學生
09:52
from our educational system with the appropriate skills.
217
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配搭適合的技能，
09:55
But over the longer term, if we are moving into an economy
218
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3277
但就長遠來看，即將來臨的經濟是
09:58
that's heavy on technology and light on labor,
219
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2652
注重科技而看輕勞工，
10:01
and we are, then we have to consider
220
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2428
我們必須考慮
10:04
some more radical interventions,
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1784
一些較為激進的干預，
10:05
for example, something like a guaranteed minimum income.
222
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3199
例如：類似最低薪資保障的事物，
10:09
Now, that's probably making some folk in this room uncomfortable,
223
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3712
現在也許使這房間裡的一些人
感到不舒服，
感到不舒服，
10:12
because that idea is associated with the extreme left wing
224
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3857
因為這意念與極端左翼相關聯的，
10:16
and with fairly radical schemes for redistributing wealth.
225
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3219
也與財富重新分配的激進計劃有所關聯。
10:19
I did a little bit of research on this notion,
226
607818
1953
我對這概念做了些少的研究，
10:21
and it might calm some folk down to know that
227
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2455
也許使那些人平靜下來，
10:24
the idea of a net guaranteed minimum income
228
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最低薪資保障是受到
10:26
has been championed by those frothing-at-the-mouth socialists
229
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3162
口吐白沫的社會主義者維護支持 -
10:30
Friedrich Hayek, Richard Nixon and Milton Friedman.
230
618035
5473
弗里德里希‧海耶克、理察‧尼克森、
米爾頓‧弗里德曼。
米爾頓‧弗里德曼。
10:35
And if you find yourself worried
231
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1879
如果你擔心
10:37
that something like a guaranteed income
232
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薪資保障類似的事物
10:40
is going to stifle our drive to succeed
233
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2275
會扼殺我們的成功驅動力，
10:42
and make us kind of complacent,
234
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1764
並使我們自滿，
10:44
you might be interested to know that social mobility,
235
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2790
你或許有興趣知道，
10:47
one of the things we really pride ourselves on in the United States,
236
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2675
我們在美國確實感到自豪的
其中一件事就是，
其中一件事就是，
10:50
is now lower than it is in the northern European countries
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3340
社會流動性較北歐國家來得低，
10:53
that have these very generous social safety nets.
238
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3199
其社會安全網可算是非常慷慨的，
10:56
So the economic playbook is actually pretty straightforward.
239
644739
2792
所以其經濟劇本實際上
非常簡單直接，
非常簡單直接，
10:59
The societal one is a lot more challenging.
240
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3056
社會劇本更為富有挑戰。
11:02
I don't know what the playbook is
241
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2148
我並不知道什麼劇本
11:04
for getting Bill to engage and stay engaged throughout life.
242
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3828
使比爾一生中從事什麼職業，
11:08
I do know that education is a huge part of it.
243
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2504
我只知道教育佔了很重要一部分，
11:11
I witnessed this firsthand.
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1780
我直接見證了這點。
11:12
I was a Montessori kid for the first few years of my education,
245
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3756
在最初頭幾年，我接受教育時，
我是一位蒙特梭利小孩，
我是一位蒙特梭利小孩，
11:16
and what that education taught me
246
664603
1529
學校教導了我，
11:18
is that the world is an interesting place
247
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2091
這個世界是一塊有趣的地方，
11:20
and my job is to go explore it.
248
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2641
我的職責就是去探索它。
11:22
The school stopped in third grade,
249
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1701
在小學三年級時，這學校停辦了，
11:24
so then I entered the public school system,
250
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2068
於是我進入了公立學校體系，
11:26
and it felt like I had been sent to the Gulag.
251
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4366
感覺就像被送到古拉格 (Gulag)，
11:30
With the benefit of hindsight, I now know the job
252
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2901
事後看來，我現在才知道，
他們要
他們要
11:33
was to prepare me for life as a clerk or a laborer,
253
681900
2514
使我終生成為普通文員或
體力勞動者，
體力勞動者，
11:36
but at the time it felt like the job was to kind of
254
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2330
但是他們當時的工作就像
11:38
bore me into some submission with what was going on around me.
255
686744
3824
要使我厭煩，並使我屈服於
周遭發生的事。
周遭發生的事。
11:42
We have to do better than this.
256
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1348
我們要做得更好，
11:43
We cannot keep turning out Bills.
257
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3676
我們不能老是成為比爾，
11:47
So we see some green shoots that things are getting better.
258
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2344
我們看見一些新枝嫩芽，
也看到事情變得更好，
也看到事情變得更好，
11:49
We see technology deeply impacting education
259
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2824
我們看見科技對教育帶來
相當大的衝擊，
相當大的衝擊，
11:52
and engaging people, from our youngest learners
260
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2528
並吸引著不同的人，
從最年輕的學習者
從最年輕的學習者
11:55
up to our oldest ones.
261
703288
1764
到最年老的。
11:57
We see very prominent business voices telling us
262
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2620
我們聽到最傑出的商界聲音，
11:59
we need to rethink some of the things that we've been holding dear for a while.
263
707672
3216
告訴我們，我們需要重新思考
那些已看重了一段時間的事情，
那些已看重了一段時間的事情，
12:02
And we see very serious and sustained
264
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2260
而我們看見一些很認真的、持續的、
12:05
and data-driven efforts to understand
265
713148
2804
受數據驅動的努力去理解
12:07
how to intervene in some of the most troubled communities that we have.
266
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3543
如何介入其中最麻煩的社區。
12:11
So the green shoots are out there.
267
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2209
新枝嫩芽都在那裡，
12:13
I don't want to pretend for a minute
268
721704
1434
就算是一分鐘,我也無法謊稱
12:15
that what we have is going to be enough.
269
723138
1942
我們所有的已經足夠，
12:17
We're facing very tough challenges.
270
725080
2142
我們面對十分艱苦的挑戰，
12:19
To give just one example, there are about five million Americans
271
727222
3106
舉個例子來說，約五百萬美國人
12:22
who have been unemployed for at least six months.
272
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2814
處於失業狀態最少六個月，
12:25
We're not going to fix things for them
273
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1342
我們不打算幫助他們解決件事，
12:26
by sending them back to Montessori.
274
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2443
把他們送回蒙特梭利。
12:28
And my biggest worry is that we're creating a world
275
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2355
我最大的憂慮就是我們
創造了一方世界，
創造了一方世界，
12:31
where we're going to have glittering technologies
276
739282
2549
在那裡我們擁有閃閃發光的科技，
12:33
embedded in kind of a shabby society
277
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2305
嵌入在破舊簡陋的社會，
12:36
and supported by an economy that generates inequality
278
744136
2967
並支持一個經濟體系，
以帶來不平等，
以帶來不平等，
12:39
instead of opportunity.
279
747103
1481
而不是機會。
12:40
But I actually don't think that's what we're going to do.
280
748584
2752
但是我並不認為我們將會這樣做，
12:43
I think we're going to do something a lot better
281
751336
1629
我認為我們將會做些
好得多的事情，
好得多的事情，
12:44
for one very straightforward reason:
282
752965
2110
原因非常簡單直接，
12:47
The facts are getting out there.
283
755075
1968
事實就擺在那裡，
12:49
The realities of this new machine age
284
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2042
這新機器時代的現實
12:51
and the change in the economy are becoming more widely known.
285
759085
3315
和經濟上的變化更廣為人知，
12:54
If we wanted to accelerate that process, we could do things
286
762400
2851
如果我們想加速這過程，我們可以
12:57
like have our best economists and policymakers
287
765251
2766
做一些事情，例如：我們把
最好的經濟學家和政策制定者
最好的經濟學家和政策制定者
13:00
play "Jeopardy!" against Watson.
288
768017
2419
與 IBM 超級電腦華生一起
玩「Jeopardy!」，一決高下，
玩「Jeopardy!」，一決高下，
13:02
We could send Congress on an autonomous car road trip.
289
770436
3550
我們可以送國會一趟
自動化汽車之旅程，
自動化汽車之旅程，
13:05
And if we do enough of these kinds of things,
290
773986
1653
如果我們做這樣的事情足夠地多，
13:07
the awareness is going to sink in that things are going to be different.
291
775639
3404
意識就要沉入潛意識，
事情就會有所不同，
事情就會有所不同，
13:11
And then we're off to the races,
292
779043
1771
然後我們走去競爭，
13:12
because I don't believe for a second
293
780814
2430
因為我從不相信，
13:15
that we have forgotten how to solve tough challenges
294
783244
2968
我們已忘記了如何解決嚴峻的挑戰，
13:18
or that we have become too apathetic or hard-hearted to even try.
295
786212
4350
或者我們已經變得無動於衷
或鐵石心腸，不再去嘗試。
或鐵石心腸，不再去嘗試。
13:22
I started my talk with quotes from wordsmiths
296
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2394
開始時我引述了舞文弄墨者的文字，
13:24
who were separated by an ocean and a century.
297
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我們和他們相隔距離以海洋計
以世紀計，
以世紀計，
13:27
Let me end it with words from politicians
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讓我以政治家的說話作總結，
13:29
who were similarly distant.
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他們和我們同樣遙遠。
13:31
Winston Churchill came to my home of MIT in 1949,
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在 1949 年，溫斯頓‧邱吉爾來到
我的家麻省理工學院，
我的家麻省理工學院，
13:34
and he said, "If we are to bring the broad masses
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他說：「如果我們要把每塊土地上
13:37
of the people in every land to the table of abundance,
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的廣大群眾富裕，
13:40
it can only be by the tireless improvement
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我們只可以孜孜不倦地追求改進
13:43
of all of our means of technical production."
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所有的技術生產。」
13:46
Abraham Lincoln realized there was one other ingredient.
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亞伯拉罕‧林肯意識到還有另一成分。
13:49
He said, "I am a firm believer in the people.
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他說：「我對人們有堅定的信念。
13:52
If given the truth, they can be depended upon
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如果事實放在眼前，
他們可以受到社會的信賴
他們可以受到社會的信賴
13:54
to meet any national crisis.
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去面對任何的國家危機，
13:57
The great point is to give them the plain facts."
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重點是給他們簡單的事實。」
13:59
So the optimistic note, great point that I want to leave you with
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我把這樂觀的好點子留給你們，
14:02
is that the plain facts of the machine age are becoming clear,
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就是新機器時代這個簡單的事實
變得更加明確，
變得更加明確，
14:06
and I have every confidence that we're going to use them
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我十分有信心我們將會使用他們
14:08
to chart a good course into the challenging,
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展開一段不錯的旅程，就是
14:11
abundant economy that we're creating.
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我們會創造富足的經濟
14:14
Thank you very much.
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謝謝
14:15
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Andrew McAfee - Management theoristAndrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society.
Why you should listen
Andrew McAfee studies the ways that information technology (IT) affects businesses, business as a whole, and the larger society. His research investigates how IT changes the way companies perform, organize themselves and compete. At a higher level, his work also investigates how computerization affects competition, society, the economy and the workforce.
He's a principal research scientist at the Center for Digital Business at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His books include Enterprise 2.0 and Race Against the Machine (with Erik Brynjolfsson). Read more on his blog.
Andrew McAfee | Speaker | TED.com