TED2010
Michael Specter: The danger of science denial
Michael Specter: 否定科學的危險
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施打疫苗導致自閉症? 應該禁止「科學怪人食品」? 讓我們跟上草藥療法的風潮? 這一切都表明公眾對科學與理性日漸升高的恐懼（而且有時近乎完全否定），Michael Specter 是這麼說的。他警告: 這個趨勢將為人類的進步帶來災難性的後果。
Michael Specter - Writer
Michael Specter is a staff writer for the New Yorker. His new book, Denialism, asks why we have increasingly begun to fear scientific advances instead of embracing them. Full bio
Michael Specter is a staff writer for the New Yorker. His new book, Denialism, asks why we have increasingly begun to fear scientific advances instead of embracing them. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Let's pretend right here we have a machine.
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想像一下這裡有一臺機器，
00:18
A big machine, a cool, TED-ish machine,
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一臺巨大的、炫麗的、很 TED 的機器，
00:20
and it's a time machine.
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它是一個時間機器，
00:22
And everyone in this room has to get into it.
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在這房間裡的每一個人都要走進這個時間機器
00:24
And you can go backwards, you can go forwards;
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你可以選擇回到過去、或走向未來
00:26
you cannot stay where you are.
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你就是不能停在當下
00:28
And I wonder what you'd choose, because I've been asking my friends
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我在想你們會怎麼選，因為最近我問我朋友，
00:30
this question a lot lately and they all want to go back.
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他們的回答都是「回到過去」
00:33
I don't know. They want to go back before there were automobiles
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我不知道。他們想要回到沒有汽車、
00:35
or Twitter or "American Idol."
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沒有 Twitter 或《美國偶像》（American Idol）的年代
00:37
I don't know.
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我搞不懂
00:39
I'm convinced that there's some sort of pull
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我肯定他們心裡有種懷舊的情愫
00:41
to nostalgia, to wishful thinking.
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或是癡心妄想
00:43
And I understand that.
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這我能理解
00:45
I'm not part of that crowd, I have to say.
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但我必須承認，我跟他們不是同一掛的
00:48
I don't want to go back, and it's not because I'm adventurous.
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我不想回到過去，不是因為我喜歡冒險 --
00:50
It's because possibilities on this planet,
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而是因為，這個地球的可能性
00:52
they don't go back, they go forward.
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無法從過去獲得，你要向未來前進
00:54
So I want to get in the machine, and I want to go forward.
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也就是說，我想走進這個機器，走到未來
00:57
This is the greatest time there's ever been on this planet
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這個時代是最美好的時代，
01:00
by any measure that you wish to choose:
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不管你用何種方式來衡量，如：
01:02
health, wealth,
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健康、財富、
01:04
mobility, opportunity,
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流動性、機遇、
01:06
declining rates of disease ...
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患病率不斷下降
01:08
There's never been a time like this.
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從未有過這麼好的時代
01:10
My great-grandparents died, all of them,
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我的曾祖父母
01:12
by the time they were 60.
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在60歲的時候過世
01:14
My grandparents pushed that number to 70.
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我的祖父母多一些，他們在70多歲時離去
01:16
My parents are closing in on 80.
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我的父母過世時已經80幾歲了
01:18
So there better be
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所以，我希望我死去的時候
01:21
a nine at the beginning of my death number.
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是在一個9數字開頭左右的時候
01:24
But it's not even about people like us,
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但這並不只和我們有關
01:26
because this is a bigger deal than that.
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這關係著更多人的生命
01:29
A kid born in New Delhi today
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今天，在新德里出生的某個小孩
01:31
can expect to live as long as
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可以擁有100年前
01:33
the richest man in the world did 100 years ago.
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世界上最富有的人一樣長的壽命
01:35
Think about that, it's an incredible fact.
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你想想，這是個多麼了不起的事!
01:37
And why is it true?
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為什麼會出現這樣的事?
01:39
Smallpox. Smallpox killed billions
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是因為我們消滅了天花
01:41
of people on this planet.
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天花曾奪走地球上數以億計人的生命
01:43
It reshaped the demography of the globe
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它重塑了地球的人口結構
01:45
in a way that no war ever has.
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任何戰爭也無以比擬
01:47
It's gone. It's vanished.
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但今天，它消失了
01:49
We vanquished it. Puff.
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我們克服了它
01:51
In the rich world,
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在當今富裕世界裡
01:53
diseases that threatened millions of us just a generation ago
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那曾經威脅上個世代數百萬人的疾病
01:56
no longer exist, hardly.
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幾乎不再出現了
01:58
Diphtheria, rubella, polio ...
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白喉、德國麻疹、小兒麻痹......
02:00
does anyone even know what those things are?
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有人知道這些是什麼嗎?
02:03
Vaccines, modern medicine,
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疫苗、現代醫學、
02:06
our ability to feed billions of people,
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以及人類為數百萬人提供食品的能力
02:08
those are triumphs of the scientific method.
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這些都是科學法則的勝利
02:10
And to my mind, the scientific method --
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在我看來，科學方法
02:12
trying stuff out,
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就是不斷嘗試、
02:14
seeing if it works, changing it when it doesn't --
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檢驗、改變的過程
02:17
is one of the great accomplishments of humanity.
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它是人類最偉大的成就之一
02:19
So that's the good news.
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因此這些都是好消息
02:21
Unfortunately, that's all the good news
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但不幸的是，好消息就這麼多
02:23
because there are some other problems, and they've been mentioned many times.
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因為我們遇到其他一些難題，它們也被提過很多次
02:26
And one of them is that
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其中一個就是
02:28
despite all our accomplishments,
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儘管我們取得進步，
02:30
a billion people go to bed hungry
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但目前，世界上還有10億人挨餓著
02:32
in this world every day.
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每天，他們都忍受著饑餓的折磨
02:34
That number's rising, and it's rising really rapidly, and it's disgraceful.
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這數字還在上升，上升的速度很快，令人感到羞愧
02:37
And not only that, we've used our imagination
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除此之外，我們還使用自身的想像力
02:40
to thoroughly trash this globe.
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給地球帶來巨大的垃圾
02:42
Potable water, arable land,
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飲用水、可耕地、
02:44
rainforests, oil, gas:
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熱帶雨林、石油、天然氣:
02:46
they're going away, and they're going away soon,
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這些資源都在流失，並且即將消失殆盡
02:49
and unless we innovate our way out of this mess,
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除非我們懂得創新
02:52
we're going away too.
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否則我們也會跟著滅亡
02:54
So the question is: Can we do that? And I think we can.
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問題是: 我們做得到嗎? 我想我們可以
02:57
I think it's clear that we can make food
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我認為我們可以產出足以養活數十億人的糧食
02:59
that will feed billions of people without raping the land that they live on.
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而不會損害他們賴以維生的土地
03:02
I think we can power this world with energy
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我認為，我們可以找到對環境友善的能源
03:04
that doesn't also destroy it.
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而不會毀壞環境
03:06
I really do believe that, and, no, it ain't wishful thinking.
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我確實是這麼相信的，絕非一廂情願
03:09
But here's the thing that keeps me up at night --
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然而，有些事讓我輾轉難眠 --
03:12
one of the things that keeps me up at night:
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其中一個讓我徹夜難眠的事
03:16
We've never needed progress in science more than we need it right now. Never.
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在我們的歷史上，從來沒有如今天這般急需科技的進步。從來沒有。
03:19
And we've also never been in a position
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在歷史上，我們也從未有過今天這樣的時機，
03:21
to deploy it properly in the way that we can today.
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讓我們可以按照自己的意願使用這些科技
03:23
We're on the verge of amazing, amazing events
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在許多領域中，我們都正處於
03:26
in many fields,
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驚人發現的時刻
03:28
and yet I actually think we'd have to go back
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儘管如此，事實上，我認為我們必須回頭看看
03:30
hundreds, 300 years, before the Enlightenment,
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回到300年前，回到啓蒙時代以前
03:33
to find a time when we battled progress,
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只有在那個年代，才有人抵抗進步
03:36
when we fought about these things
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才有人比我們今天更加
03:38
more vigorously, on more fronts, than we do now.
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猛烈地抗拒科技的進步
03:41
People wrap themselves in their beliefs,
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人們總愛把自己放置於信仰裡
03:43
and they do it so tightly that you can't set them free.
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他們捆綁自己，使自己無法脫身
03:46
Not even the truth will set them free.
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即便是真理也無法使他們獲得自由
03:48
And, listen, everyone's entitled to their opinion;
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聽著，每個人都有權抱持他的觀點，
03:51
they're even entitled to their opinion about progress.
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他們甚至有權聲稱他們關於進步的意見
03:53
But you know what you're not entitled to?
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但你知道你沒有權利做什麽嗎?
03:55
You're not entitled to your own facts. Sorry, you're not.
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你無權堅稱你自己所知道的事實。抱歉，你就是無法。
03:58
And this took me awhile to figure out.
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我也是花了一段時間才領悟出來的
04:00
About a decade ago, I wrote a story about vaccines
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大約十年前，我在《紐約客》上寫一篇
04:02
for The New Yorker. A little story.
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關於疫苗的小故事
04:04
And I was amazed to find opposition:
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但我驚訝地發現，竟然有那麼多人反對我
04:06
opposition to what is, after all,
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他們反對的是
04:09
the most effective public health measure in human history.
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人類史上最有效的公共衛生預防措施
04:12
I didn't know what to do,
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我當時不知該怎麼做
04:14
so I just did what I do: I wrote a story and I moved on.
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我就只做自己該做的。故事寫完，繼續搞其他事
04:17
And soon after that,
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不久之後，
04:20
I wrote a story about genetically engineered food.
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我寫了一個關於基因轉殖食物的文章
04:22
Same thing, only bigger.
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同樣地，我又收到大量的反對聲浪，比上次還要大
04:24
People were going crazy.
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人們簡直瘋了
04:26
So I wrote a story about that too,
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於是，我也就此寫了一篇文章
04:28
and I couldn't understand why
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我實在搞不懂
04:30
people thought this was "Frankenfoods,"
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為何人們會把這看作「科學怪人食物」?
04:32
why they thought moving molecules around
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我不理解: 為何人們會認為，以特定的方式移動生物分子
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in a specific, rather than a haphazard way,
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而非按任意的方式，
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was trespassing on nature's ground.
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就是在玩弄自然
04:40
But, you know, I do what I do. I wrote the story, I moved on.
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不過，你知道，我還是做我該做的。故事寫完，我就不管了。
04:42
I mean, I'm a journalist.
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我是個記者，
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We type, we file, we go to dinner. It's fine.
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我們的工作就是打字、發表、吃飯，就這樣。
04:47
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
04:50
But these stories bothered me,
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但，這些故事還是困擾著我
04:52
and I couldn't figure out why, and eventually I did.
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我也不知道是什麼原因，直到後來我才知道爲什麽。
04:54
And that's because those fanatics that were driving me crazy
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因為，那些曾把我逼瘋的狂熱分子
04:57
weren't actually fanatics at all.
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事實上並非狂熱分子
04:59
They were thoughtful people, educated people, decent people.
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他們都是有想法的人、受過教育的人、正經人。
05:02
They were exactly like the people in this room.
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他們完全就像這房裡的所有人，
05:06
And it just disturbed me so much.
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這實在讓我傷透腦筋...
05:08
But then I thought, you know, let's be honest.
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但後來我想，不如打開天窗說亮話吧:
05:11
We're at a point in this world
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在我們今天所處的時代
05:13
where we don't have the same relationship to progress that we used to.
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我們與進步的關係已經不同於以往了，
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We talk about it ambivalently.
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我們現在以一種矛盾的情緒談論它，
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We talk about it in ironic terms with little quotes around it:
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我們以諷刺的口吻來引用進步:
05:20
"progress."
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“進步” (加上引號)
05:23
Okay, there are reasons for that, and I think we know what those reasons are.
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好吧，我想這是有原因的，我們也知道原因是什麼
05:26
We've lost faith in institutions,
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我們對於政府機構
05:28
in authority,
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已失去信任，
05:30
and sometimes in science itself,
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有時對科學本身也是，
05:32
and there's no reason we shouldn't have.
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我們確實有不信任的理由，
05:34
You can just say a few names
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說出幾個名字
05:36
and people will understand.
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你就知道原因為何了
05:38
Chernobyl, Bhopal, the Challenger,
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車諾比、博帕爾、挑戰者號、
05:41
Vioxx, weapons of mass destruction,
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Vioxx 抗關節炎藥、大規模殺傷性武器，
05:44
hanging chads.
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充滿太多爭議
05:46
You know, you can choose your list.
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你可以列出自己的清單
05:49
There are questions and problems
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我們過去深深確信的
05:51
with the people we used to believe were always right,
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現在都出問題了
05:53
so be skeptical.
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所以，還是保持懷疑吧
05:56
Ask questions, demand proof, demand evidence.
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詢問問題、要求證據、
05:59
Don't take anything for granted.
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千萬別凡事信以為真
06:01
But here's the thing: When you get proof,
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但要注意一點: 當你取得證據時
06:04
you need to accept the proof, and we're not that good at doing that.
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你必須接受那樣的證據。我們卻並不善於這麼做。
06:07
And the reason that I can say that is because
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究其原因，我認為
06:09
we're now in an epidemic of fear
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我們現在都得了一種恐懼傳染病
06:11
like one I've never seen and hope never to see again.
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一種我從未見過的、以後也不想再見的恐懼傳染病
06:14
About 12 years ago, there was a story published,
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大約十二年前，媒體報導一則消息
06:16
a horrible story,
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一個非常可怕的故事
06:18
that linked the epidemic of autism
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它把自閉症
06:21
to the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine shot.
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和注射麻疹、腮腺炎、德國麻疹等疫苗連結在一起
06:24
Very scary.
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非常可怕
06:26
Tons of studies were done to see if this was true.
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爲了查明此事，人們展開大量研究
06:29
Tons of studies should have been done; it's a serious issue.
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是有必要做這些大量研究，因為那確實是一個嚴重的議題
06:32
The data came back.
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最後資料出來了
06:34
The data came back from the United States, from England,
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來自美國、英國、
06:36
from Sweden, from Canada,
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瑞典、加拿大的資料檢驗出同樣的結論:
06:38
and it was all the same: no correlation,
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自閉症和疫苗二者之間沒有關聯，
06:40
no connection, none at all.
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毫無聯繫，根本毫不相關
06:42
It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter
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但這個結果對大眾沒多大意義
06:44
because we believe anecdotes,
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因為我們相信小道消息，
06:46
we believe what we see, what we think we see,
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我們相信眼睛看到的、相信心裡所見到的、
06:48
what makes us feel real.
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相信那些讓我們覺得真實的東西
06:50
We don't believe a bunch of documents
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就是不相信一堆化驗資料
06:52
from a government official giving us data,
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不相信來自政府部門的檔案
06:54
and I do understand that, I think we all do.
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而我也理解這一點，我想我們所有人都理解這點
06:56
But you know what?
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可是你知道嗎?
06:58
The result of that has been disastrous.
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這導致了災難性的後果
07:00
Disastrous because here's a fact:
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說它災難，因為這裡有個事實:
07:03
The United States is one of the only countries in the world
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美國是世界上唯一一個
07:05
where the vaccine rate for measles is going down.
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麻疹接種率正在下降的國家
07:08
That is disgraceful,
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這實在令人羞愧
07:10
and we should be ashamed of ourselves.
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我們應該為此感到慚愧
07:12
It's horrible.
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這很可怕
07:14
What kind of a thing happened
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到底發生什麼事
07:16
that we could do that?
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才使我們這麼做?
07:18
Now, I understand it. I do understand it.
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現在，我明白了。真的明白了。
07:21
Because, did anyone have measles here?
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請問這裡有人得過麻疹嗎?
07:23
Has one person in this audience ever seen someone die of measles?
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你們當中，有人看過某人罹患麻疹死去嗎?
07:26
Doesn't happen very much.
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不經常發生吧
07:28
Doesn't happen in this country at all,
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事實上它也不會發生在這個國家
07:30
but it happened 160,000 times in the world last year.
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然而，過去一年裡，有十六萬人罹患麻疹而死去
07:32
That's a lot of death of measles --
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這是一個非常大量的麻疹致死率
07:34
20 an hour.
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基本上，每小時有20人因此死去
07:36
But since it didn't happen here, we can put it out of our minds,
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但因為它不在我們生活周遭，我們可以不管這件事
07:39
and people like Jenny McCarthy
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像 Jenny McCarthy 那樣的人
07:41
can go around preaching messages
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依然能夠在
07:43
of fear and illiteracy from platforms
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歐普拉和賴瑞·金的節目上
07:45
like "Oprah" and "Larry King Live."
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散播恐懼和無知的資訊
07:48
And they can do it because
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他們之所以這麼做
07:50
they don't link causation and correlation.
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是因為，他們沒有把原因與關聯性連結在一起
07:52
They don't understand that these things seem the same,
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他們不瞭解這些看起來似是而非的東西
07:55
but they're almost never the same.
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事實上從來都不是相同的東西
07:57
And it's something we need to learn, and we need to learn it really soon.
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我們必須從中汲取教訓，越早越好
08:00
This guy was a hero, Jonas Salk.
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這位先生是個英雄， Jonas Salk
08:03
He took one of the worst scourges of mankind away from us.
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他發明小兒麻痹的疫苗，使我們避免了最嚴重的禍害
08:06
No fear, no agony. Polio -- puff, gone.
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再也沒有恐懼，再也沒有痛楚，小兒麻痹消失了
08:09
That guy in the middle, not so much.
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中間那個男人就沒那麼風光了 (圖標: 恐怖分子)
08:12
His name is Paul Offit.
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他叫 Paul Offit
08:14
He just developed a rotavirus vaccine with a bunch of other people.
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他與其他一票同仁一起發明了輪狀病毒疫苗
08:16
It'll save the lives of 400 to 500,000 kids
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這疫苗每年可以在發展中國家
08:19
in the developing world every year.
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拯救四億五十萬孩子的生命
08:21
Pretty good, right?
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聽起來是好事，不是嗎?
08:23
Well, it's good, except that Paul goes around talking about vaccines
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確實很好，除了Paul 到處宣傳這一疫苗
08:25
and says how valuable they are
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說它有多好
08:27
and that people ought to just stop the whining.
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並稱人們從此可以告別苦楚
08:29
And he actually says it that way.
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他確實是這麼說的
08:31
So, Paul's a terrorist.
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於是，我們把 Paul 當成恐怖分子
08:34
When Paul speaks in a public hearing,
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當 Paul 公開作證時
08:36
he can't testify without armed guards.
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他身邊必須要有武裝保安
08:38
He gets called at home
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他在家裡會接到恐嚇電話
08:40
because people like to tell him
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因為，有人會跟他說
08:42
that they remember where his kids go to school.
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他們知道他孩子在哪上學
08:44
And why? Because Paul made a vaccine.
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為什麼? 因為 Paul 發明了一種疫苗
08:47
I don't need to say this, but vaccines are essential.
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我本不需要講這個的，但疫苗確實極其重要，
08:50
You take them away, disease comes back,
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一旦停止疫苗注射，疾病又會捲土重來，
08:52
horrible diseases. And that's happening.
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並且是非常可怕的疾病，這樣的事正在發生
08:55
We have measles in this country now.
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現在美國也出現麻疹了
08:57
And it's getting worse, and pretty soon kids
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而且情況越來越糟
08:59
are going to die of it again because it's just a numbers game.
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不久之後，就會有孩子罹患此病而死，因為這只是數字遊戲罷了
09:01
And they're not just going to die of measles.
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不僅僅是麻疹，
09:03
What about polio? Let's have that. Why not?
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還有小兒麻痹症呢! 誰敢說它不會重新出現?
09:05
A college classmate of mine wrote me a couple weeks ago and said
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幾個星期前，我的一位大學同學寫信給我說
09:08
she thought I was a little strident.
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她覺得我現在有點太張揚了
09:10
No one's ever said that before.
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以前沒人這麼說過
09:13
She wasn't going to vaccinate her kid against polio,
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她說她不打算給孩子接種小兒麻痹症疫苗
09:15
no way.
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絕對不會
09:17
Fine.
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好吧
09:19
Why? Because we don't have polio. And you know what?
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為什麼? 因為這個國家沒有小兒麻痹症。但你知道嗎?
09:21
We didn't have polio in this country yesterday.
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昨天，我們沒有這個傳染病
09:24
Today, I don't know, maybe a guy got on a plane in Lagos this morning,
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但今天? 我不知道，也許某人今早從 Lagos 上了飛機
09:27
and he's flying to LAX, right now he's over Ohio.
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飛到洛杉磯機場，現在差不多抵達俄亥俄州
09:29
And he's going to land in a couple of hours, he's going to rent a car,
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幾個小時後，他的飛機就要降落，他會租一輛車
09:32
and he's going to come to Long Beach,
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來到 Long Beach
09:34
and he's going to attend one of these fabulous TED dinners tonight.
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來到這裡參加今晚其中一場超棒的 TED 晚宴
09:37
And he doesn't know that he's infected with a paralytic disease,
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他不知道自己感染了小兒麻痹症
09:40
and we don't either because that's the way the world works.
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我們也不知道，因為這就是世界運作的方式
09:43
That's the planet we live on. Don't pretend it isn't.
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這就是地球運轉的方式。別假裝它不是。
09:46
Now, we love to wrap ourselves in lies. We love to do it.
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如今，我們喜歡相信謊言。我們超愛這麼做
09:49
Everyone take their vitamins this morning?
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你們每個人早上都吃了維他命嗎?
09:51
Echinacea, a little antioxidant
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或者紫錐花? 或是一點的抗氧化劑?
09:53
to get you going.
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吞了那些你才感覺比較清醒
09:55
I know you did because half of Americans do every day.
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你之所以這麼做，是因為每天有半數的美國人也這麼做
09:58
They take the stuff, and they take alternative medicines,
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他們會吃這些東西，也會吃替代藥物
10:01
and it doesn't matter how often
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而且不管我們都已經知道
10:03
we find out that they're useless.
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事實上這些東西是無效的
10:05
The data says it all the time.
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資料是這麼說的
10:07
They darken your urine. They almost never do more than that.
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吃這些只會使得你的尿液顏色變深。除此以外，它們起不了任何作用
10:10
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
10:12
It's okay, you want to pay 28 billion dollars for dark urine?
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假如你願意花280億美元獲得一些深色尿液，
10:15
I'm totally with you.
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我一點也不反對
10:17
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
10:19
Dark urine. Dark.
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深色的尿液，深色...
10:22
Why do we do that? Why do we do that?
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我們幹嘛這麼做? 為什麼要做這些?
10:24
Well, I think I understand, we hate Big Pharma.
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嗯，我想我能理解，我們都討厭大藥商
10:26
We hate Big Government. We don't trust the Man.
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我們都討厭大政府，我們不信任這些人
10:28
And we shouldn't: Our health care system sucks.
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而我們也不需要。我們的健保系統很爛
10:31
It's cruel to millions of people.
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對幾百萬人來說，這是一個殘酷的系統
10:33
It's absolutely astonishingly cold
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而對於那些能夠支付起的人們來說
10:36
and soul-bending to those of us who can even afford it.
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這也絕對是一個非常冷酷無情的系統
10:39
So we run away from it, and where do we run?
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於是我們就想辦法逃離。但要逃到哪裡去呢?
10:42
We leap into the arms of Big Placebo.
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我們投入巨大安慰劑的懷抱之中。
10:44
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
10:47
That's fantastic. I love Big Placebo.
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了不起。我喜歡大安慰劑。
10:49
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
10:54
But, you know, it's really a serious thing
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但你知道，這真是一件嚴重的事
10:57
because this stuff is crap,
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因為這東西是一個爛貨
10:59
and we spend billions of dollars on it.
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但我們卻花了數以億計的美元來購買安慰劑
11:01
And I have all sorts of little props here.
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我也帶來了各種各樣的樣品
11:04
None of it ... ginkgo, fraud;
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它們當中，沒有一樣是有效的，無論是銀杏、
11:06
echinacea, fraud;
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紫錐花、
11:08
acai -- I don't even know what that is
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巴西紫莓...都沒用。我甚至不知道這是什麼，
11:10
but we're spending billions of dollars on it -- it's fraud.
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但我們花數十億美元購買它們，這簡直是詐騙
11:13
And you know what? When I say this stuff, people scream at me,
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但你知道嗎? 當我說到這時，人們對我大吼
11:15
and they say, "What do you care? Let people do what they want to do.
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他們說:「你管他們幹嘛? 讓人們做自己要做的事就好啦，
11:18
It makes them feel good."
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這至少讓他們心裡感到舒服啊。」
11:20
And you know what? You're wrong.
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但你知道嗎? 你錯了。
11:22
Because I don't care
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因為我一點也不在乎
11:24
if it's the secretary of HHS
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假使美國健康與公共事業部部長
11:26
who's saying, "Hmm, I'm not going to take the evidence
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說:「呃，我才不管專家
11:29
of my experts on mammograms,"
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找到的關於乳房X線照片的證據呢，」
11:31
or some cancer quack who wants to treat his patient
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或是一個癌症庸醫想通過
11:34
with coffee enemas.
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咖啡灌腸來醫治他的病人。
11:36
When you start down the road
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假如你相信信仰和魔術
11:38
where belief and magic replace evidence and science,
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而非證據與科學的話，
11:41
you end up in a place you don't want to be.
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你最終只會來到一個你不想去的地方
11:43
You end up in Thabo Mbeki South Africa.
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你最終會來到姆貝基的南非 (Thabo Mbeki: 南非前總統)
11:45
He killed 400,000 of his people
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對於治療愛滋病，他因為堅信
11:48
by insisting that beetroot,
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甜菜、蒜頭、和檸檬油
11:50
garlic and lemon oil
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比我們所知的可延緩愛滋病的
11:52
were much more effective than the antiretroviral drugs
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抗逆轉錄病毒藥物更有效
11:54
we know can slow the course of AIDS.
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而殺死了40萬人
11:56
Hundreds of thousands of needless deaths
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成千上萬的人
11:58
in a country that has been plagued
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因此而死
12:01
worse than any other by this disease.
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那裡剛好又是全球愛滋病最為蔓延的地區
12:03
Please, don't tell me
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請別告訴我
12:05
there are no consequences to these things.
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這些不會產生嚴重後果
12:07
There are. There always are.
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後果是有的 ，終究會有
12:09
Now, the most mindless epidemic
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現在，我們所遇到最無知的傳染病
12:11
we're in the middle of right now
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就是基因轉殖作物
12:13
is this absurd battle
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與有機菁英食品
12:15
between proponents of genetically engineered food
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兩個陣營之間的
12:18
and the organic elite.
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愚蠢對抗
12:20
It's an idiotic debate. It has to stop.
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這也是一個愚蠢的爭論，我們必須停止。
12:22
It's a debate about words, about metaphors.
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因為這個辯論只是針對字眼和隱喻
12:25
It's ideology, it's not science.
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是關於意識形態的爭辯，而不是科學。
12:27
Every single thing we eat, every grain of rice,
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我們吃進肚子裡的每一樣東西，每一顆穀物或飯粒
12:29
every sprig of parsley,
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每一根香菜
12:31
every Brussels sprout
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每一顆球芽甘欖菜
12:33
has been modified by man.
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都曾被人類改變過
12:35
You know, there weren't tangerines in the garden of Eden.
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你知道，在伊甸園裡本來是沒有橘子的、
12:37
There wasn't any cantaloupe. (Laughter)
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沒有哈密瓜、
12:39
There weren't Christmas trees. We made it all.
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更不會有聖誕樹，這些都是人造出來的
12:42
We made it over the last 11,000 years.
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人類在過去一萬一千年裡造出了這些東西
12:45
And some of it worked, and some of it didn't.
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有些實驗成功，有些失敗
12:47
We got rid of the stuff that didn't.
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那些失敗的嘗試就被拋棄
12:49
Now we can do it in a more precise way --
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而現在我們可以以一種更為精確的方式來做實驗
12:51
and there are risks, absolutely --
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這絕對會有風險
12:53
but we can put something like vitamin A into rice,
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但我們可以把維他命A置入水稻裡，
12:56
and that stuff can help millions of people,
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這會幫助數百萬人
12:59
millions of people, prolong their lives.
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延長他們的壽命
13:02
You don't want to do that?
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你不願做這件事嗎?
13:04
I have to say, I don't understand it.
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我必須說，我實在搞不懂。
13:07
We object to genetically engineered food.
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我們反對基因作物
13:09
Why do we do that?
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為什麼?
13:11
Well, the things I constantly hear are:
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嗯，我經常聽到的理由是:
13:13
Too many chemicals,
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含有太多化學成分、
13:15
pesticides, hormones,
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太多農藥、荷爾蒙、
13:17
monoculture, we don't want giant fields
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單一作物、我們不要巨大單一的農田
13:19
of the same thing, that's wrong.
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確實，那樣不好
13:21
We don't companies patenting life.
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我們不想讓大公司申請作物專利
13:23
We don't want companies owning seeds.
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我們也不想讓大公司壟斷種子
13:25
And you know what my response to all of that is?
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你知道我對所有這些意見的回應是什麽嗎?
13:27
Yes, you're right. Let's fix it.
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對，猜對了，我們一起來解決這些問題
13:30
It's true, we've got a huge food problem,
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的確，我們遇到一個非常嚴重的食物問題，
13:32
but this isn't science.
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但這不是科學，
13:34
This has nothing to do with science.
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這與科學無關
13:36
It's law, it's morality, it's patent stuff.
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這是法律、倫理、專利法的問題
13:39
You know science isn't a company.
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要知道，科學並非一家公司，
13:41
It's not a country.
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也不是一個國家，
13:43
It's not even an idea; it's a process.
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甚至不是一個想法，它是一個過程
13:46
It's a process, and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't,
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這過程有時成功，有時失敗，
13:49
but the idea that we should not allow
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但由於我們畏懼
13:52
science to do its job
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而認為我們不該讓科學家
13:54
because we're afraid,
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去做深入研究工作的這個想法
13:56
is really very deadening,
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是非常可怕的，
13:58
and it's preventing millions of people
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這也會阻礙數百萬人
14:00
from prospering.
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走向繁榮
14:02
You know, in the next 50 years
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你知道嗎? 未來的五十年
14:04
we're going to have to grow 70 percent more food than we do right now,
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我們需要比現在種植
14:07
70 percent.
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70%更多的糧食
14:09
This investment in Africa over the last 30 years.
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這是過去三十年在非洲的農業投資總額
14:12
Disgraceful. Disgraceful.
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令人慚愧，令人慚愧
14:14
They need it, and we're not giving it to them.
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他們需要，我們卻偏偏不給
14:16
And why? Genetically engineered food.
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為什麼? 因為那是基因食物
14:19
We don't want to encourage people
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我們不鼓勵人們去
14:21
to eat that rotten stuff, like cassava for instance.
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吃腐爛的食物，比如，壞掉的木薯
14:24
Cassava's something that half a billion people eat.
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世界上有五千萬人是靠吃木薯為生的
14:26
It's kind of like a potato.
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那是一種類似馬鈴薯的作物
14:28
It's just a bunch of calories. It sucks.
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就只有一堆卡路里，非常難吃
14:30
It doesn't have nutrients, it doesn't have protein,
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沒有營養，也沒有蛋白質，
14:32
and scientists are engineering
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而現在，有科學家正嘗試
14:34
all of that into it right now.
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把這些營養素加到木薯裡
14:36
And then people would be able to eat it and they'd be able to not go blind.
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吃到這些改良木薯的人就以避免失明
14:39
They wouldn't starve, and you know what?
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也不再挨餓。你知道嗎?
14:41
That would be nice. It wouldn't be Chez Panisse,
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這是好事。雖然比不上 Chez Panisse (高檔餐廳)
14:44
but it would be nice.
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但也是好事一樁
14:48
And all I can say about this is:
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我只能說，
14:50
Why are we fighting it?
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為什麼我們要反對呢?
14:52
I mean, let's ask ourselves: Why are we fighting it?
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請大家問問自己: 我們為何要反對?
14:54
Because we don't want to move genes around?
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因為我們不想移動基因組嗎?
14:56
This is about moving genes around. It's not about chemicals.
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這只是移動一些基因組罷了，不是添加化學物質
14:59
It's not about our ridiculous passion for hormones,
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跟我們荒謬熱愛的荷爾蒙也毫無瓜葛
15:02
our insistence on having bigger food,
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我們總是要求獲得更大的食物、
15:04
better food, singular food.
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更好的食物、更專一的食物
15:06
This isn't about Rice Krispies,
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這和 Rice Krispies (棉花糖米香) 無關，
15:08
this is about keeping people alive,
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而是試著讓人活下來
15:10
and it's about time we started to understand what that meant.
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現在是我們認真理解這件事的時刻了
15:13
Because, you know something?
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因為，你知道嗎?
15:15
If we don't, if we continue to act the way we're acting,
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假如我們不這麼做，而是堅持現在的做法，
15:18
we're guilty of something that I don't think we want to be guilty of:
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我們未來將會因為一些我們不希望發生的事情而感到負罪感
15:21
high-tech colonialism.
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高科技殖民主義
15:23
There's no other way to describe what's going on here.
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沒有其他別的詞語更合適於描述這一狀況了
15:25
It's selfish, it's ugly,
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這是自私的、骯髒的
15:27
it's beneath us,
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使我們變得卑劣
15:29
and we really have to stop it.
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我們必須停止這麼做
15:32
So after this amazingly fun conversation,
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好了，在這麼一場超級有趣的對話之後，
15:35
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
15:37
you might want to say, "So, you still want to get in this
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你也許會說:「你還想走進這臺荒謬的時間機器，
15:39
ridiculous time machine and go forward?"
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駛入未來嗎?」
15:41
Absolutely. Absolutely, I do.
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那當然，我絕對會那麼做。
15:44
It's stuck in the present right now,
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這機器現在停在當下，
15:46
but we have an amazing opportunity.
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但我們遇到非常好的機會
15:48
We can set that time machine on anything we want.
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我們可以按自己的意願設置時間機器
15:51
We can move it where we want to move it,
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想去哪就去哪
15:53
and we're going to move it where we want to move it.
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我們可以抵達我們真正要去的地方
15:55
We have to have these conversations and we have to think,
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我們需要開展對話，我們需要思考，
15:58
but when we get in the time machine and we go ahead,
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當我們進入時間機器，並且走向未來時，
16:01
we're going to be happy we do.
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我們會為我們的選擇感到高興，
16:03
I know that we can,
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我相信我們可以，
16:05
and as far as I'm concerned,
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而就我的理解，
16:07
that's something the world needs right now.
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這就是現在世界所需要的東西。
16:10
(Applause)
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謝謝大家
16:12
Thank you.
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（掌聲）
16:15
Thank you.
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謝謝
16:17
Thank you. Thank you.
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Specter - WriterMichael Specter is a staff writer for the New Yorker. His new book, Denialism, asks why we have increasingly begun to fear scientific advances instead of embracing them.
Why you should listen
Michael Specter's new book, Denialism: How Irrational Thinking Hinders Scientific Progress, Harms the Planet and Threatens Our Lives, dives into a worrisome strain of modern life -- a vocal anti-science bias that may prevent us from making the right choices for our future. Specter studies how the active movements against vaccines, genetically engineered food, science-based medicine and biotechnological solutions to climate change may actually put the world at risk. (For instance, anti-vaccination activists could soon trigger the US return of polio, not to mention the continuing rise of measles.) More insidiously, the chilling effect caused by the new denialism may prevent useful science from being accomplished.
Specter has been a writer for the New Yorker for more than a decade; before that, he was a science writer and then the Moscow bureau chief for the New York Times. He writes about science and politics for the New Yorker, with a fascinating sideline in biographical profiles.
Michael Specter | Speaker | TED.com