TEDSalon London 2010
Martin Jacques: Understanding the rise of China
Martin Jacques: At forstå Kinas fremgang
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I en tale ved en TED Salon i London, spørger økonom Martin Jacques: Hvordan får vi i Vesten Kina og dets fænomenale fremgang til at give mening? Forfatteren til "When China Rules the World," undersøger, hvorfor Vesten ofte bliver forvirret over Kinas økonomis voksende styrke og tilbyder tre byggeklodser til at forstå, hvordan Kina er og vil blive.
Martin Jacques - Writer, columnist
Martin Jacques is the author of "When China Rules the World," and a columnist for the Guardian and New Statesman. He was a co-founder of the think tank Demos. Full bio
Martin Jacques is the author of "When China Rules the World," and a columnist for the Guardian and New Statesman. He was a co-founder of the think tank Demos. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
The world is changing
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Verden forandrer sig
00:17
with really remarkable speed.
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med virkelig anseelig fart.
00:20
If you look at the chart at the top here,
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Hvis I ser på diagrammet øverst,
00:22
you'll see that in 2025,
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vil I se, at i 2025
00:24
these Goldman Sachs projections
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anslår disse Goldman Sachs prognoser,
00:26
suggest that the Chinese economy
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at den kinesiske økonomi
00:28
will be almost the same size as the American economy.
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næsten vil være på størrelse med den amerikanske økonomi.
00:31
And if you look at the chart
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Og hvis I ser på diagrammet
00:34
for 2050,
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over 2050,
00:36
it's projected that the Chinese economy
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forudsiges det, at den kinesiske økonomi
00:39
will be twice the size of the American economy,
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vil være dobbelt så stor som den amerikanske økonomi,
00:42
and the Indian economy will be almost the same size
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og den indiske økonomi vil næsten være på størrelse
00:44
as the American economy.
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med den amerikanske økonomi.
00:47
And we should bear in mind here
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Og vi bør her huske,
00:49
that these projections were drawn up
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at disse prognoser blev lavet
00:51
before the Western financial crisis.
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før den vestlige finanskrise.
00:54
A couple of weeks ago,
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For et par uger siden
00:56
I was looking at the latest projection
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kiggede jeg på den seneste prognose
00:58
by BNP Paribas
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af BNP Paribas
01:00
for when China
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for, hvornår Kina
01:03
will have a larger economy
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vil have en større økonomi
01:05
than the United States.
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end USA.
01:07
Goldman Sachs projected 2027.
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Goldman Sachs forudsagde 2027.
01:11
The post-crisis projection
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Post-kriseprognosen
01:14
is 2020.
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siger 2020.
01:17
That's just a decade away.
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Det er blot et årti væk.
01:19
China is going to change the world
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Kina vil forandre verden
01:23
in two fundamental respects.
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på to fundamentale måder.
01:26
First of all,
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For det første
01:28
it's a huge developing country
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er det et enormt udviklingsland
01:30
with a population of 1.3 billion people,
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med en befolkning på 1,3 milliarder mennesker,
01:34
which has been growing for over 30 years
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der har været voksende i over 30 år
01:37
at around 10 percent a year.
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med omkring 10 procent om året.
01:39
And within a decade,
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Og inden for et årti
01:41
it will have the largest economy in the world.
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vil det have verdens største økonomi.
01:45
Never before in the modern era
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Aldrig før i den moderne æra
01:48
has the largest economy in the world
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har verdens største økonomi
01:51
been that of a developing country,
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været et udviklingslands
01:53
rather than a developed country.
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i stedet for et udviklet lands.
01:57
Secondly,
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For det andet
01:59
for the first time in the modern era,
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for første gang i den moderne æra
02:01
the dominant country in the world --
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vil det dominerende land i verden --
02:03
which I think is what China will become --
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hvilket jeg tror, er hvad Kina vil blive --
02:06
will be not from the West
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ikke være fra Vesten
02:09
and from very, very different civilizational roots.
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og med meget, meget forskellig civilisationsmæssige rødder.
02:13
Now, I know it's a widespread assumption in the West
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Nu ved jeg, det er en udbredt antagelse i Vesten,
02:17
that as countries modernize,
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at, som lande moderniserer,
02:20
they also westernize.
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vestliggøres de også.
02:22
This is an illusion.
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Dette er en illusion.
02:24
It's an assumption that modernity
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Det er en antagelse, at modernitet
02:26
is a product simply of competition, markets and technology.
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simpelthen er et produkt af konkurrence, markeder og teknologi.
02:29
It is not. It is also shaped equally
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Det er det ikke; det er også formet lige så meget
02:31
by history and culture.
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af historie og kultur.
02:33
China is not like the West,
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Kina er ikke som Vesten,
02:36
and it will not become like the West.
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og det bliver ikke som Vesten.
02:39
It will remain in very fundamental respects
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Det vil forblive på meget fundamentale måder
02:41
very different.
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meget anderledes.
02:43
Now the big question here is obviously,
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Nu er det store spørgsmål her selvfølgelig,
02:46
how do we make sense of China?
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hvordan får vi Kina til at give mening?
02:48
How do we try to understand what China is?
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Hvordan skal vi forsøge at forstå, hvad Kina er?
02:50
And the problem we have in the West at the moment, by and large,
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Og problemet, vi har i Vesten for tiden i det store og hele,
02:53
is that the conventional approach
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er, at den almindelige tilgang
02:55
is that we understand it really in Western terms,
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er, at vi forstår det virkelig på Vestlige vilkår
02:57
using Western ideas.
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ved at bruge Vestlige idéer.
03:00
We can't.
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Det kan vi ikke.
03:02
Now I want to offer you
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Nu vil jeg gerne tilbyde jer
03:04
three building blocks
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tre byggeklodser
03:06
for trying to understand what China is like,
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til at forsøge at forstå, hvordan Kina er --
03:09
just as a beginning.
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bare til en begyndelse.
03:11
The first is this:
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Den første er dette,
03:13
that China is not really a nation-state.
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at Kina ikke rigtigt er en nationalstat.
03:16
Okay, it's called itself a nation-state
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Okay, det har kaldt sig selv en nationalstat
03:18
for the last hundred years,
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i de sidste hundrede år.
03:20
but everyone who knows anything about China
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Men enhver, der kender noget som helst om Kina,
03:22
knows it's a lot older than this.
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ved, det er meget ældre end dette.
03:24
This was what China looked like with the victory of the Qin Dynasty
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Sådan her så Kina ud med Qin-dynastiets sejr
03:27
in 221 B.C. at the end of the warring-state period --
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i 221 f.kr. ved slutningen af de stridende staters periode --
03:30
the birth of modern China.
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det moderne Kinas fødsel.
03:32
And you can see it against the boundaries of modern China.
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Og I kan se det sammenlignet med det moderne Kinas grænser.
03:35
Or immediately afterward, the Han Dynasty,
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Eller straks efter, Han-dynastiet,
03:37
still 2,000 years ago.
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stadig 2.000 år siden.
03:39
And you can see already it occupies
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Og I kan se, det allerede dækker
03:41
most of what we now know as Eastern China,
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det meste af, hvad vi nu kender som det Østlige Kina,
03:43
which is where the vast majority of Chinese lived then
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hvilket er, hvor det store fleral af kinesere boede dengang
03:46
and live now.
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og bor nu.
03:48
Now what is extraordinary about this
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Det, der er specielt ved dette,
03:50
is, what gives China its sense of being China,
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er, at det, der giver Kina dets fornemmelse af at være Kina,
03:53
what gives the Chinese
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det, der giver kineserne
03:56
the sense of what it is to be Chinese,
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fornemmelsen af, hvordan det er, at være kineser,
03:59
comes not from the last hundred years,
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ikke kommer fra de sidste hundrede år,
04:01
not from the nation-state period,
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ikke fra nationalstatsperioden,
04:03
which is what happened in the West,
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hvilket er, hvad der skete i Vesten,
04:06
but from the period, if you like,
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men fra perioden, om man vil,
04:08
of the civilization-state.
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af civilisationsstaten.
04:10
I'm thinking here, for example,
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Her tænker jeg for eksempel
04:13
of customs like ancestral worship,
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på traditioner som slægtstilbedelse,
04:16
of a very distinctive notion of the state,
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på en meget karakteristisk opfattelse af staten,
04:19
likewise, a very distinctive notion of the family,
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og ligeså en meget karakteristisk opfattelse af familien,
04:22
social relationships like guanxi,
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sociale forhold som guanxi,
04:24
Confucian values and so on.
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konfucianske værdier og så videre.
04:26
These are all things that come
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Disse er alle ting, der stammer
04:28
from the period of the civilization-state.
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fra civilisationsstatens periode.
04:31
In other words, China, unlike the Western states and most countries in the world,
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Med andre ord er Kina ulig vestlige stater og de fleste lande i verden
04:34
is shaped by its sense of civilization,
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formet af dets opfattelse af civilisation,
04:37
its existence as a civilization-state,
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dets eksistens som en civilisationsstat
04:39
rather than as a nation-state.
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frem for en nationalstat.
04:41
And there's one other thing to add to this, and that is this:
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Og der er én ting at tilføje til dette, og det er:
04:44
Of course we know China's big, huge,
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Selvfølgelig ved vi, at Kina er stor, enorm,
04:46
demographically and geographically,
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demografisk og geografisk
04:49
with a population of 1.3 billion people.
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med en befolkning på 1,3 milliarder mennesker.
04:52
What we often aren't really aware of
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Det, vi ofte ikke rigtig er opmærksomme på,
04:55
is the fact
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er det faktum,
04:57
that China is extremely diverse
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at Kina er ekstremt forskelligartet
04:59
and very pluralistic,
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og meget pluralistisk
05:01
and in many ways very decentralized.
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og på mange måder meget decentraliseret.
05:03
You can't run a place on this scale simply from Beijing,
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Man kan ikke styre et noget i denne størrelsesorden blot fra Beijing,
05:06
even though we think this to be the case.
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selvom vi tror, at det er tilfældet her.
05:09
It's never been the case.
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Det har aldrig være tilfældet.
05:13
So this is China, a civilization-state,
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Så dette er Kina, en civilisationsstat,
05:15
rather than a nation-state.
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frem for en nationalstat.
05:17
And what does it mean?
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Og hvad betyder det?
05:19
Well, I think it has all sorts of profound implications.
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Altså jeg tror, det har alle mulige slags dybtliggende implicationer.
05:21
I'll give you two quick ones.
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Jeg skal give jer to hurtige.
05:23
The first is that
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Den første er, at
05:25
the most important political value for the Chinese
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den vigtigste politiske værdi for en kineser
05:29
is unity,
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er sammenhold,
05:31
is the maintenance
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er opretholdelsen
05:33
of Chinese civilization.
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af kinesisk civilisation.
05:35
You know, 2,000 years ago, Europe:
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I ved for 2.000 år siden i Europa:
05:38
breakdown -- the fragmentation of the Holy Roman Empire.
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sammenbrud, opdelingen af det Hellige Romerrige [Romerriget].
05:41
It divided, and it's remained divided ever since.
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Det deltes, og det er forblevet delt lige siden.
05:44
China, over the same time period,
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Kina i den samme tidsperiode
05:46
went in exactly the opposite direction,
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gik i den præcis modsatte retning
05:48
very painfully holding this huge civilization,
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og meget smertefuldt holdt denne enorme civilisation
05:51
civilization-state, together.
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civilisationsstat sammen.
05:54
The second
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Den anden
05:56
is maybe more prosaic,
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er måske mere prosaisk,
05:58
which is Hong Kong.
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hvilket er Hong Kong.
06:00
Do you remember the handover of Hong Kong
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Husker I overleveringen af Hong Kong
06:03
by Britain to China in 1997?
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af England til Kina i 1997?
06:05
You may remember
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I husker måske,
06:07
what the Chinese constitutional proposition was.
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hvad det kinesiske konstitutionelle forslag var.
06:09
One country, two systems.
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Et land, to systemer.
06:11
And I'll lay a wager
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Og jeg vil vædde på,
06:13
that barely anyone in the West believed them.
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at stort set ingen i Vesten troede dem.
06:15
"Window dressing.
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"Spil for galleriet.
06:17
When China gets its hands on Hong Kong,
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Når Kina får kløerne i Hong Kong,
06:19
that won't be the case."
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vil dét ikke være tilfældet."
06:21
Thirteen years on,
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13 år senere
06:23
the political and legal system in Hong Kong
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er det politiske og lovmæssige system i Hong Kong
06:25
is as different now as it was in 1997.
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så forskellig, som det var i 1997.
06:28
We were wrong. Why were we wrong?
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Vi tog fejl. Hvorfor tog vi fejl?
06:31
We were wrong because we thought, naturally enough,
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Vi tog fejl, fordi vi naturligt nok tænkte
06:34
in nation-state ways.
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i nationalstatsbaner.
06:36
Think of German unification, 1990.
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Tænk på den tyske genforening, 1990.
06:38
What happened?
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Hvad skete der?
06:40
Well, basically the East was swallowed by the West.
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Altså, Østen blev stort set slugt af Vesten.
06:42
One nation, one system.
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En nation, et system.
06:44
That is the nation-state mentality.
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Det er nationalstatsmentaliteten.
06:47
But you can't run a country like China,
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Men man kan ikke styre et land som Kina,
06:50
a civilization-state,
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en civilisationsstat,
06:52
on the basis of one civilization, one system.
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på én civilisations præmisser, ét system.
06:55
It doesn't work.
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Det virker ikke.
06:57
So actually the response of China
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Så faktisk var Kinas svar
07:00
to the question of Hong Kong --
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på spørgsmålet om Hong Kong --
07:02
as it will be to the question of Taiwan --
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som det vil være på spørgsmålet om Taiwan --
07:04
was a natural response:
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et naturligt svar:
07:06
one civilization, many systems.
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en civilisation, mange systemer.
07:09
Let me offer you another building block
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Lad mig tilbyde jer endnu en byggeklods
07:11
to try and understand China --
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til at forsøge og forstå Kina --
07:13
maybe not sort of a comfortable one.
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måske ikke en så behagelig en.
07:16
The Chinese have a very, very different
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Kineserne har en meget, meget anderledes
07:18
conception of race
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opfattelse af race
07:20
to most other countries.
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i forhold til andre lande.
07:23
Do you know,
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Ved I,
07:25
of the 1.3 billion Chinese,
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at af de 1,3 milliarder kinesere
07:28
over 90 percent of them
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mener over 90 procent af dem,
07:30
think they belong to the same race,
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at de tilhører den samme race,
07:33
the Han?
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han-kineserne.
07:35
Now, this is completely different
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Dette er fuldstændig forskelligt
07:37
from the world's [other] most populous countries.
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fra de andre af verdens mest befolkede lande.
07:40
India, the United States,
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Indien, USA,
07:42
Indonesia, Brazil --
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Indonesien, Brasilien --
07:45
all of them are multiracial.
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de er alle flerracesamfund.
07:48
The Chinese don't feel like that.
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Kineserne har det ikke på samme på måde.
07:51
China is only multiracial
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Kina er kun et flerracesamfund
07:53
really at the margins.
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i margenerne.
07:56
So the question is, why?
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Så spørgsmålet er, hvorfor?
07:58
Well the reason, I think, essentially
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Altså grunden er, tror jeg, grundlæggende
08:00
is, again, back to the civilization-state.
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igen tilbage til civilisationsstaten.
08:03
A history of at least 2,000 years,
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En historie på mindst 2.000 år,
08:06
a history of conquest, occupation,
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en historie om erobring, besættelse,
08:08
absorption, assimilation and so on,
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absorbering, assimilering og så videre,
08:10
led to the process by which,
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ledte til processen igennem hvilken
08:12
over time, this notion of the Han emerged --
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over tid, denne opfattelse af han-kineseren kom frem --
08:15
of course, nurtured
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selvfølgelig næret
08:17
by a growing and very powerful sense
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af en voksende og meget stærk følelse
08:20
of cultural identity.
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af kulturel identitet.
08:23
Now the great advantage of this historical experience
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Nu har den store fordel ved denne historiske erfaring
08:26
has been that, without the Han,
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været, at uden han-kineserne
08:30
China could never have held together.
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kunne Kina aldrig have holdt sammen.
08:32
The Han identity has been the cement
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Han-identiteten har været cementen,
08:35
which has held this country together.
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der har holdt dette land sammen.
08:38
The great disadvantage of it
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Den store ulempe ved den
08:40
is that the Han have a very weak conception
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er, at han-kineserne har en meget svag forestilling
08:42
of cultural difference.
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om kulturel forskel.
08:44
They really believe
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De tror virkelig
08:47
in their own superiority,
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på deres egen overlegenhed,
08:49
and they are disrespectful
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og de er respektløse
08:51
of those who are not.
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over for dem, der ikke er.
08:53
Hence their attitude, for example,
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Derfor deres attitude for eksempel
08:55
to the Uyghurs and to the Tibetans.
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over for uighurerne og tibetanerne.
08:59
Or let me give you my third building block,
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Eller lad mig give jer min tredje byggeklods,
09:01
the Chinese state.
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den kinesiske stat.
09:03
Now the relationship
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Nu er forholdet
09:05
between the state and society in China
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mellem staten og samfundet i Kina
09:08
is very different from that in the West.
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meget forskellig fra det i Vesten.
09:12
Now we in the West
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Nu lader vi i Vesten
09:14
overwhelmingly seem to think -- in these days at least --
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overvejende at synes, -- i disse dage i hvert fald --
09:16
that the authority and legitimacy of the state
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at statens autoritet og legitimitet
09:20
is a function of democracy.
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er en funktion af demokrati.
09:23
The problem with this proposition
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Problemet med denne antagelse
09:25
is that the Chinese state
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er, at den kinesiske stat
09:29
enjoys more legitimacy
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nyder mere legitimitet
09:31
and more authority
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og mere autoritet
09:33
amongst the Chinese
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blandt kineserne,
09:36
than is true
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end det er tilfældet
09:38
with any Western state.
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for nogen vestlig stat.
09:42
And the reason for this
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Og grunden til dette
09:44
is because --
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er, at --
09:46
well, there are two reasons, I think.
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altså, der er to grunde, tror jeg.
09:48
And it's obviously got nothing to do with democracy,
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Og det har tydeligvis intet med demokrati at gøre,
09:50
because in our terms the Chinese certainly don't have a democracy.
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for efter vores opfattelse har kineserne bestemt ikke et demokrati.
09:53
And the reason for this is,
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Og grunden til dette er,
09:55
firstly, because the state in China
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for det første fordi staten i Kina
09:58
is given a very special --
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bliver tillagt en meget speciel --
10:01
it enjoys a very special significance
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den nyder en meget speciel vigtighed
10:03
as the representative,
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som repræsentant,
10:05
the embodiment and the guardian
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legemliggørelsen og vogteren
10:08
of Chinese civilization,
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af kinesisk civilisation,
10:10
of the civilization-state.
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af civilisationsstaten.
10:13
This is as close as China gets
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Dette er så tæt som Kina kommer
10:15
to a kind of spiritual role.
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på en form for spirituel rolle.
10:19
And the second reason is because,
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Og den anden grund er fordi,
10:21
whereas in Europe
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hvor i Europa
10:23
and North America,
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og Nordamerika
10:25
the state's power is continuously challenged --
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statens magt gentagne gange bliver udfordret --
10:28
I mean in the European tradition,
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jeg mener i den europæiske tradition,
10:30
historically against the church,
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historisk af kirken,
10:32
against other sectors of the aristocracy,
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af andre dele af aristokratiet,
10:34
against merchants and so on --
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af købmænd og så videre --
10:36
for 1,000 years,
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i 1.000 år
10:38
the power of the Chinese state
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er den kinesiske stats magt
10:40
has not been challenged.
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ikke blevet udfordret.
10:42
It's had no serious rivals.
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Den har ikke haft nogen seriøse rivaler.
10:46
So you can see
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Så I kan se,
10:48
that the way in which power has been constructed in China
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at måden, hvorpå magten er blevet opbygget i Kina,
10:52
is very different from our experience
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er meget forskellig fra vores erfaring
10:54
in Western history.
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i vestlig historie.
10:57
The result, by the way,
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Resultatet er forresten,
10:59
is that the Chinese have a very different view of the state.
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at kineserne har et meget anderledes syn på staten.
11:04
Whereas we tend to view it as an intruder,
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Hvor vi ofte anser det som en indtrængende,
11:07
a stranger,
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en fremmed,
11:10
certainly an organ
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uden tvivl et organ,
11:12
whose powers need to be limited
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hvis magt skal begrænses
11:15
or defined and constrained,
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eller defineres eller indskrænkes,
11:17
the Chinese don't see the state like that at all.
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ser kineserne overhovedet ikke sådan på staten.
11:19
The Chinese view the state
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Kineserne ser staten
11:22
as an intimate -- not just as an intimate actually,
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som en nær ven -- ikke bare som en nær ven faktisk,
11:25
as a member of the family --
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som et medlem af familien --
11:27
not just in fact as a member of the family,
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faktisk ikke bare som et medlem af familien,
11:29
but as the head of the family,
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men som familiens overhoved,
11:31
the patriarch of the family.
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familiens patriark.
11:33
This is the Chinese view of the state --
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Det er kinesernes syn på staten --
11:36
very, very different to ours.
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meget, meget forskellig fra vores.
11:38
It's embedded in society in a different kind of way
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Den er forankret i samfundet på en helt anden måde,
11:41
to what is the case
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end det er tilfældet
11:43
in the West.
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i Vesten.
11:45
And I would suggest to you that actually what we are dealing with here,
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Og jeg ville foreslå jer, at faktisk er det, vi har med at gøre her
11:48
in the Chinese context,
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i kinesisk sammenhæng,
11:51
is a new kind of paradigm,
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en ny slags paradigme,
11:53
which is different from anything
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der er forskellig fra noget,
11:55
we've had to think about in the past.
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vi har skullet forholde os til i fortiden.
11:59
Know that China believes in the market and the state.
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Vid, at Kina tror på markedet og staten.
12:02
I mean, Adam Smith,
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Jeg mener, Adam Smith,
12:04
already writing in the late 18th century, said,
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der allerede skrev i det sene 18. århundrede, sagde,
12:07
"The Chinese market is larger and more developed
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"Det kinesiske marked er større og mere udviklet
12:09
and more sophisticated
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og mere sofistikeret
12:11
than anything in Europe."
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end noget i Europa."
12:13
And, apart from the Mao period,
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Og bortset fra Mao-perioden
12:15
that has remained more or less the case ever since.
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har det mere eller mindre været tilfældet lige siden.
12:17
But this is combined
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Men det er kombineret
12:19
with an extremely strong and ubiquitous state.
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med en ekstremt stærk og allestedsnærværende stat.
12:23
The state is everywhere in China.
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Staten er overalt i Kina.
12:25
I mean, it's leading firms --
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Jeg mener, den leder firmaer,
12:27
many of them are still publicly owned.
295
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mange af dem er stadig offentligt ejede.
12:30
Private firms, however large they are, like Lenovo,
296
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Private firmaer, uanset hvor store de er, som Lenovo,
12:33
depend in many ways on state patronage.
297
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er på mange måder afhængig af statens støtte.
12:35
Targets for the economy and so on
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Mål for økonomien og så videre
12:37
are set by the state.
299
742000
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bliver sat af staten.
12:39
And the state, of course, its authority flows into lots of other areas --
300
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Og statens autoritet flyder selvfølgelig ind på mange andre områder --
12:41
as we are familiar with --
301
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som vi er bekendt med --
12:43
with something like the one-child policy.
302
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med noget som etbarnspolitikken.
12:45
Moreover, this is a very old state tradition,
303
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Desuden er dette en meget gammel statstradition,
12:48
a very old tradition of statecraft.
304
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en meget gammel tradition i statskunst.
12:50
I mean, if you want an illustration of this,
305
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Jeg mener, hvis I vil have et eksempel på det,
12:53
the Great Wall is one.
306
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er Den Kinesiske Mur et.
12:55
But this is another, this is the Grand Canal,
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Men dette er et andet, dette er Kejserkanalen,
12:57
which was constructed in the first instance
308
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der blev bygget på første gang
12:59
in the fifth century B.C.
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i det femte århundrede f.kr.
13:01
and was finally completed
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og endelig stod færdig
13:03
in the seventh century A.D.
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i det syvende århundrede e.kr.
13:05
It went for 1,114 miles,
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4000
Den strakte sig 1793 km
13:09
linking Beijing
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2000
og forbandt Beijing
13:11
with Hangzhou and Shanghai.
314
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3000
med Hangzhou og Shanghai.
13:14
So there's a long history
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Så der er en lang historie
13:16
of extraordinary state infrastructural projects
316
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3000
for usædvanlige statsstyrede infrastrukturprojekter
13:19
in China,
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i Kina,
13:21
which I suppose helps us to explain what we see today,
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hvilket, tror jeg, hjælper os med at forklare det, vi ser i dag,
13:24
which is something like the Three Gorges Dam
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for eksempel noget som De Tre Slugters Dæmning
13:26
and many other expressions
320
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og mange andre udtryk
13:28
of state competence
321
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for statskompetence
13:30
within China.
322
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2000
i Kina.
13:32
So there we have three building blocks
323
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Så der har vi tre byggeklodser
13:35
for trying to understand the difference that is China --
324
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til at forsøge at forstå forskellen forskelligheden, som Kina er --
13:38
the civilization-state,
325
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civilisationsstaten,
13:41
the notion of race
326
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opfattelsen af race
13:43
and the nature of the state
327
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og statens natur
13:45
and its relationship to society.
328
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og dens forhold til samfundet.
13:48
And yet we still insist, by and large,
329
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Og alligevel insisterer vi i det store og hele
13:51
in thinking that we can understand China
330
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4000
på at tro, at vi kan forstå Kina
13:55
by simply drawing on Western experience,
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ved simpelthen at trække på vestlige erfaringer,
13:58
looking at it through Western eyes,
332
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at se på det gennem vestlige øjne,
14:01
using Western concepts.
333
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at bruge vestlige begreber.
14:03
If you want to know why
334
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Hvis I vil vide, hvorfor
14:05
we unerringly seem to get China wrong --
335
830000
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vi med usvigelig sikkerhed misforstår Kina --
14:08
our predictions about what's going to happen to China are incorrect --
336
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vores forudsigelser om, hvad der sker med Kina, er ukorrekte --
14:11
this is the reason.
337
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er dette grunden.
14:15
Unfortunately, I think,
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Desværre tror jeg,
14:17
I have to say that I think
339
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jeg er nødt til at sige, at jeg tror,
14:20
attitude towards China
340
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vores attitude over for Kina
14:22
is that of a kind of little Westerner mentality.
341
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er en slags lille vesterlændings mentalitet.
14:25
It's kind of arrogant.
342
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Den er lidt arrogant.
14:27
It's arrogant in the sense
343
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Den er arrogant på den måde,
14:29
that we think that we are best,
344
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at vi tror, at vi er bedst,
14:31
and therefore we have the universal measure.
345
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og derfor skal alt måles mod os.
14:35
And secondly, it's ignorant.
346
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Og for det andet er den ignorant.
14:37
We refuse to really address
347
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Vi afviser virkelig at tage fat på
14:40
the issue of difference.
348
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forskellighedsproblemet.
14:42
You know, there's a very interesting passage
349
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I ved, der er en meget interessant passage
14:44
in a book by Paul Cohen, the American historian.
350
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i en bog af Paul Cohen, den amerikanske historiker.
14:47
And Paul Cohen argues
351
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Og Paul Cohen argumenterer for,
14:50
that the West thinks of itself
352
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at Vesten anser sig selv
14:54
as probably the most cosmopolitan
353
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som sandsynligvis den mest kosmopolitiske
14:56
of all cultures.
354
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af alle kulturer.
14:58
But it's not.
355
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Men det er den ikke.
15:00
In many ways,
356
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2000
På mange måder
15:02
it's the most parochial,
357
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er den den mest snæversynede,
15:04
because for 200 years,
358
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3000
fordi i 200 år
15:07
the West has been so dominant in the world
359
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3000
har Vesten været så dominerende i verden,
15:10
that it's not really needed
360
895000
2000
at den ikke rigtig har haft brug for
15:12
to understand other cultures,
361
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3000
at forstå andre kulturer,
15:15
other civilizations.
362
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andre civilisationer.
15:17
Because, at the end of the day,
363
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For til syvende og sidst
15:19
it could, if necessary by force,
364
904000
3000
kunne den, om nødvendigt med magt,
15:22
get its own way.
365
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2000
få det på sin måde.
15:24
Whereas those cultures --
366
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Hvorimod de kulturer, --
15:26
virtually the rest of the world, in fact,
367
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3000
praktisk talt resten af verden faktisk --
15:29
which have been in a far weaker position, vis-a-vis the West --
368
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3000
der har været i en langt svagere position vis-a-vis Vesten,
15:32
have been thereby forced to understand the West,
369
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3000
har derfor været nødsagede til at forstå Vesten,
15:35
because of the West's presence in those societies.
370
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3000
på grund af Vestens tilstedeværelse i disse samfund.
15:38
And therefore, they are, as a result,
371
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3000
Og derfor er resultatet, at de
15:41
more cosmopolitan in many ways than the West.
372
926000
3000
på mange måder er mere kosmopolitiske end Vesten.
15:44
I mean, take the question of East Asia.
373
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2000
Jeg mener, se på spørgsmålet om Østasien.
15:46
East Asia: Japan, Korea, China, etc. --
374
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3000
Østasien: Japan, Korea, Kina, etc. --
15:49
a third of the world's population lives there.
375
934000
2000
en tredjedel af verdens befolkning bor der,
15:51
Now the largest economic region in the world.
376
936000
2000
nu det største økonomiske område i verden.
15:53
And I'll tell you now,
377
938000
2000
Og jeg siger jer nu,
15:55
that East Asianers, people from East Asia,
378
940000
2000
at Østasiatere, folk fra Østasien,
15:57
are far more knowledgeable
379
942000
2000
ved langt mere
15:59
about the West
380
944000
2000
om Vesten,
16:01
than the West is about East Asia.
381
946000
4000
end Vesten gør om Østasien.
16:05
Now this point is very germane, I'm afraid,
382
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3000
Nu er denne pointe meget relevant, er jeg bange for,
16:08
to the present.
383
953000
2000
for nutiden.
16:10
Because what's happening? Back to that chart at the beginning,
384
955000
3000
For hvad sker der? Tilbage til diagrammet i starten --
16:13
the Goldman Sachs chart.
385
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2000
Goldman Sachs-diagrammet.
16:15
What is happening
386
960000
2000
Det, der sker,
16:17
is that, very rapidly in historical terms,
387
962000
3000
er, at meget hurtigt historisk set
16:20
the world is being driven
388
965000
3000
bliver verden drevet
16:23
and shaped,
389
968000
2000
og formet
16:25
not by the old developed countries,
390
970000
2000
ikke af de gamle udviklede lande,
16:27
but by the developing world.
391
972000
2000
men af udviklingslandene.
16:29
We've seen this
392
974000
2000
Vi har set dette
16:31
in terms of the G20
393
976000
2000
ved blandt andet G20 --
16:33
usurping very rapidly the position of the G7,
394
978000
3000
der meget hurtigt tilraner sig G7's position
16:36
or the G8.
395
981000
3000
eller G8's.
16:40
And there are two consequences of this.
396
985000
3000
Og der er to konsekvenser for dette.
16:43
First, the West
397
988000
2000
Først, Vesten
16:45
is rapidly losing
398
990000
2000
mister hastigt
16:47
its influence in the world.
399
992000
2000
sin indflydelse i verden.
16:49
There was a dramatic illustration of this actually a year ago --
400
994000
3000
Der var faktisk et dramatisk eksempel på dette for et år siden --
16:52
Copenhagen, climate change conference.
401
997000
2000
København, klimaforandringskonferencen.
16:54
Europe was not at the final negotiating table.
402
999000
2000
Europa sad ikke ved det endelige forhandlingsbord.
16:56
When did that last happen?
403
1001000
2000
Hvornår skete det sidst?
16:58
I would wager it was probably about 200 years ago.
404
1003000
3000
Jeg vil gætter på, det sandsynligvis var for omkring 200 år siden.
17:01
And that is what is going to happen in the future.
405
1006000
3000
Og det er det, der vil ske i fremtiden.
17:04
And the second implication
406
1009000
2000
Og den anden implikation
17:06
is that the world will inevitably, as a consequence,
407
1011000
3000
er, at verden uundgåeligt som en konsekvens vil
17:09
become increasingly unfamiliar to us,
408
1014000
4000
blive tiltagende fremmed for os,
17:13
because it'll be shaped by cultures and experiences and histories
409
1018000
3000
fordi den vil blive formet af kulturer og erfaringer og historier,
17:16
that we are not really familiar with,
410
1021000
3000
som vi ikke rigtig kender
17:19
or conversant with.
411
1024000
2000
eller er fortrolige med.
17:21
And at last, I'm afraid -- take Europe;
412
1026000
2000
Og endelig er jeg bange for -- tag Europa,
17:23
America is slightly different --
413
1028000
2000
Amerika er lidt anderledes --
17:25
but Europeans by and large, I have to say,
414
1030000
3000
men europæere i det store og hele, er jeg nødt til at sige,
17:28
are ignorant,
415
1033000
3000
er uvidende,
17:31
are unaware
416
1036000
2000
er uopmærksomme
17:33
about the way the world is changing.
417
1038000
3000
på måden, verden forandrer sig.
17:36
Some people -- I've got an English friend in China,
418
1041000
3000
Nogle mennesker -- jeg har en engelsk ven i Kina,
17:39
and he said, "The continent is sleepwalking into oblivion."
419
1044000
3000
og han sagde, "Kontinentet går i søvne ind i glemsel."
17:44
Well, maybe that's true,
420
1049000
2000
Nå, måske er det sandt,
17:46
maybe that's an exaggeration.
421
1051000
2000
måske er det en overdrivelse.
17:48
But there's another problem which goes along with this --
422
1053000
3000
Men der er et andet problem, der følger med dette --
17:51
that Europe is increasingly out of touch with the world --
423
1056000
3000
at Europa i stigende grad mister kontakten med verden --
17:54
and that is a sort of
424
1059000
3000
og det er en slags
17:57
loss of a sense of the future.
425
1062000
2000
tab af fornemmelse for fremtiden.
17:59
I mean, Europe once, of course, once commanded the future
426
1064000
3000
Jeg mener, Europa dominerede engang fremtiden
18:02
in its confidence.
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i sin tiltro.
18:04
Take the 19th century, for example.
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Tag for eksempel det 19. århundrede.
18:07
But this, alas, is no longer true.
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Men dette er, ak, ikke længere tilfældet.
18:10
If you want to feel the future, if you want to taste the future,
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Hvis man vil føle fremtiden, hvis man vil smage på fremtiden,
18:13
try China -- there's old Confucius.
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prøv Kina -- der er gamle Konfutse.
18:16
This is a railway station
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Det her er en togstation,
18:18
the likes of which you've never seen before.
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hvis lige I aldrig har set før.
18:20
It doesn't even look like a railway station.
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Den ligner ikke engang en togstation.
18:22
This is the new [Wuhan] railway station
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Dette er den nye Guangzhou togstation
18:24
for the high-speed trains.
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til højhastighedstog.
18:26
China already has a bigger network
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Kina har allerede et større netværk
18:28
than any other country in the world
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end noget andet land i verden
18:30
and will soon have more than all the rest of the world put together.
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og vil snart have mere end resten af verden lagt sammen.
18:34
Or take this: now this is an idea,
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Eller hvad med denne: Dette er en idé,
18:36
but it's an idea to be tried out shortly
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men det er en idé der skal afprøves snart
18:39
in a suburb of Beijing.
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i en forstad til Beijing.
18:41
Here you have a megabus,
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Her har I en megabus,
18:44
on the upper deck carries about 2,000 people.
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der på øverste etage bærer omkring 2.000 mennesker.
18:47
It travels on rails
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Den kører på skinner
18:49
down a suburban road,
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ned ad en forstadsvej,
18:51
and the cars travel underneath it.
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og bilerne kører nedenunder den.
18:54
And it does speeds of up to about 100 miles an hour.
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Og den kan komme op på en fart af omkring 160 km i timen.
18:57
Now this is the way things are going to move,
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Og det er sådan tingene vil foregå,
19:00
because China has a very specific problem,
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for Kina har et meget specifikt problem,
19:02
which is different from Europe
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der er forskellig fra Europa
19:04
and different from the United States:
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og forskellig fra USA.
19:06
China has huge numbers of people and no space.
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Kina har enorme mængder af mennesker og ingen plads.
19:09
So this is a solution to a situation
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Så dette er en løsning på en situation,
19:11
where China's going to have
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hvor Kina vil have
19:13
many, many, many cities
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mange, mange, mange byer
19:15
over 20 million people.
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med over 20 millioner indbyggere.
19:17
Okay, so how would I like to finish?
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Okay, så hvordan vil jeg gerne slutte?
19:20
Well, what should our attitude be
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Altså hvordan burde vores attitude være
19:23
towards this world
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over for denne verden,
19:26
that we see
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som vi ser,
19:28
very rapidly developing
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der hastigt udvikler sig
19:30
before us?
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for øjnene af os?
19:33
I think there will be good things about it and there will be bad things about it.
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Jeg tror, der vil være gode ting ved det, og der vil være dårlige ting ved det.
19:36
But I want to argue, above all,
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Men jeg vil gerne fremsætte over alt andet
19:38
a big-picture positive for this world.
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et stort positivt billede for verden.
19:43
For 200 years,
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I 200 år
19:45
the world was essentially governed
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blev verden virkelig regeret
19:51
by a fragment of the human population.
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af en brøkdel af menneskeheden.
19:55
That's what Europe and North America represented.
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Det er det, Europa og Nordamerika repræsenterede.
19:59
The arrival of countries
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Ankomsten af lande
20:01
like China and India --
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som Kina og Indien --
20:03
between them 38 percent of the world's population --
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mellem dem 38 procent af verdens befolkning --
20:05
and others like Indonesia and Brazil and so on,
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og andre som Indonesien og Brasilien og så videre
20:11
represent the most important single act
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repræsenterer den vigtigste enkelte
20:14
of democratization
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demokratiserende handling
20:16
in the last 200 years.
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i de sidste 200 år.
20:18
Civilizations and cultures,
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Civilisationer og kulturer,
20:20
which had been ignored, which had no voice,
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der var blevet ignoreret, der ingen stemme havde,
20:23
which were not listened to, which were not known about,
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der ikke blev lyttet til, der ikke var kendt til,
20:25
will have a different sort
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vil have en ny slags
20:27
of representation in this world.
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repræsentation i verden.
20:30
As humanists, we must welcome, surely,
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Som humanister må vi selvfølgelig hilse
20:32
this transformation,
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denne forandring velkommen.
20:34
and we will have to learn
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Og vi bliver nødt til at lære
20:36
about these civilizations.
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om disse civilisationer.
20:38
This big ship here
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Dette kæmpe skib
20:41
was the one sailed in by Zheng He
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var det, Zheng He sejlede med
20:43
in the early 15th century
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i det tidlige 15. århundrede
20:45
on his great voyages
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på sine store rejser
20:47
around the South China Sea, the East China Sea
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rundt i det Sydkinesiske Hav, det Østkinesiske Hav
20:50
and across the Indian Ocean to East Africa.
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og på tværs af det Indiske Ocean til Østafrika.
20:53
The little boat in front of it
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Den lille båd foran det
20:57
was the one in which, 80 years later,
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var den i hvilken 80 år senere
20:59
Christopher Columbus crossed the Atlantic.
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Christoffer Columbus krydsede Atlanten.
21:02
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
21:04
Or, look carefully
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Eller kig grundigt
21:06
at this silk scroll
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på denne silkerulle
21:08
made by ZhuZhou
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lavet af ZhuZhou
21:11
in 1368.
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i 1368.
21:14
I think they're playing golf.
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Jeg tror, de spiller golf.
21:16
Christ, the Chinese even invented golf.
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Åh Gud, kineserne opfandt endda golf.
21:19
Welcome to the future. Thank you.
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Velkommen til fremtiden. Tak.
21:22
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Martin Jacques - Writer, columnistMartin Jacques is the author of "When China Rules the World," and a columnist for the Guardian and New Statesman. He was a co-founder of the think tank Demos.
Why you should listen
Martin Jacques is the author of When China Rules the World: The Rise of the Middle Kingdom and the End of the Western World. He is a Senior Fellow at the Department of Politics and International Studies, Cambridge University, and a Visiting Professor at Tsinghua University, Beijing. He is also a non-resident Fellow at the Transatlantic Academy, Washington DC. He is a columnist for the Guardian and the New Statesman.
His interest in East Asia began in 1993 with a holiday in China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia. After that, he found every reason or excuse he could find to spend time in the region, be it personal, for newspaper articles or television programs. In 1977, he became editor of Marxism Today, a post he held for fourteen years, transforming what was an obscure and dull journal into the most influential political publication in Britain, read and respected on the right and left alike.
In 1991, he closed Marxism Today and in 1994 became the deputy editor of the Independent newspaper, a post he held until 1996. In 1993 he co-founded the think-tank Demos.
Martin Jacques | Speaker | TED.com