ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Peter Hirshberg - Entrepreneur, marketer
A Silicon Valley executive, entrepreneur and marketing specialist, Peter Hirshberg might just be the definitive voice on how new technology affects business and culture.

Why you should listen

The Internet would change everything: it's a truism now, but for some, this took years to sink in. Not for Peter Hirshberg. A marketing specialist at the epicenter of emerging technology, he has spent a quarter of a century charting the reverberations of all things high tech in culture and in business. (It's big business, too.)

Hirshberg first helped bring Apple into the online services arena., then acted as strategic adviser to Microsoft, AOL and NBC. Along the way, he was CEO of Gloss.com and Elemental Software. He's built a deep understanding of the fundamentals of content production and consumption -- and how they've changed, both online and off.

Hirshberg is a trustee of the Computer History Museum and a Henry Crown Fellow of the Aspen Institute. He serves on the advisory board of Technorati and keeps up a lively blog on disruptive culture.

More profile about the speaker
Peter Hirshberg | Speaker | TED.com
EG 2007

Peter Hirshberg: The web is more than "better TV"

Filmed:
283,024 views

In this absorbing look at emerging media and tech history, Peter Hirshberg shares some crucial lessons from Silicon Valley and explains why the web is so much more than "better TV."
- Entrepreneur, marketer
A Silicon Valley executive, entrepreneur and marketing specialist, Peter Hirshberg might just be the definitive voice on how new technology affects business and culture. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:16
Well, good morning.
0
0
2000
00:18
You know, the computer and television both recently turned 60,
1
2000
4000
00:22
and today I'd like to talk about their relationship.
2
6000
4000
00:26
Despite their middle age, if you've been following the themes
3
10000
2000
00:28
of this conference or the entertainment industry,
4
12000
3000
00:31
it's pretty clear that one has been picking on the other.
5
15000
3000
00:34
So it's about time that we talked about how the computer ambushed television,
6
18000
5000
00:39
or why the invention of the atomic bomb
7
23000
3000
00:42
unleashed forces that lead to the writers' strike.
8
26000
3000
00:45
And it's not just what these are doing to each other,
9
29000
3000
00:48
but it's what the audience thinks that really frames this matter.
10
32000
4000
00:52
To get a sense of this,
11
36000
1000
00:53
and it's been a theme we've talked about all week,
12
37000
2000
00:55
I recently talked to a bunch of tweeners.
13
39000
2000
00:57
I wrote on cards: "television," "radio," "MySpace," "Internet," "PC."
14
41000
5000
01:02
And I said, just arrange these, from what's important to you
15
46000
2000
01:04
and what's not, and then tell me why.
16
48000
2000
01:06
Let's listen to what happens when they get to the portion
17
50000
3000
01:09
of the discussion on television.
18
53000
2000
01:11
(Video) Girl 1: Well, I think it's important but, like, not necessary
19
55000
7000
01:18
because you can do a lot of other stuff with your free time than watch programs.
20
62000
6000
01:24
Peter Hirshberg: Which is more fun, Internet or TV?
21
68000
2000
01:26
Girls: Internet.
22
70000
2000
01:28
Girl 2: I think we -- the reasons, one of the reasons we put computer before TV
23
72000
3000
01:31
is because nowadays, like, we have TV shows on the computer.
24
75000
4000
01:35
(Girl 3: Oh, yeah.)
25
79000
1000
01:36
Girl 2: And then you can download onto your iPod.
26
80000
1000
01:37
PH: Would you like to be the president of a TV network?
27
81000
4000
01:41
Girl 4: I wouldn't like it.
28
85000
2000
01:43
Girl 2: That would be so stressful.
29
87000
2000
01:45
Girl 5: No.
30
89000
1000
01:46
PH: How come?
31
90000
1000
01:47
Girl 5: Because they're going to lose all their money eventually.
32
91000
3000
01:50
Girl 3: Like the stock market, it goes up and down and stuff.
33
94000
3000
01:53
I think right now the computers will be at the top
34
97000
2000
01:55
and everything will be kind of going down and stuff.
35
99000
3000
01:58
PH: There's been an uneasy relationship between the TV business
36
102000
6000
02:04
and the tech business, really ever since they both turned about 30.
37
108000
3000
02:07
We go through periods of enthrallment,
38
111000
4000
02:11
followed by reactions in boardrooms, in the finance community
39
115000
3000
02:14
best characterized as, what's the finance term? Ick pooey.
40
118000
5000
02:19
Let me give you an example of this. The year is 1976,
41
123000
2000
02:21
and Warner buys Atari because video games are on the rise.
42
125000
3000
02:24
The next year they march forward and they introduce Qube,
43
128000
3000
02:27
the first interactive cable TV system,
44
131000
3000
02:30
and the New York Times heralds this
45
134000
2000
02:32
as telecommunications moving to the home,
46
136000
2000
02:34
convergence, great things are happening.
47
138000
2000
02:36
Everybody in the East Coast gets in the pictures --
48
140000
2000
02:38
Citicorp, Penney, RCA -- all getting into this big vision.
49
142000
3000
02:41
By the way, this is about when I enter the picture.
50
145000
2000
02:43
I'm going to do a summer internship at Time Warner.
51
147000
2000
02:45
That summer I'm all -- I'm at Warner that summer --
52
149000
2000
02:47
I'm all excited to work on convergence, and then the bottom falls out.
53
151000
4000
02:51
Doesn't work out too well for them, they lose money.
54
155000
3000
02:54
And I had a happy brush with convergence
55
158000
3000
02:57
until, kind of, Warner basically has to liquidate the whole thing.
56
161000
4000
03:01
That's when I leave graduate school, and I can't work in New York
57
165000
4000
03:05
on kind of entertainment and technology
58
169000
2000
03:07
because I have to be exiled to California, where the remaining jobs are,
59
171000
4000
03:11
almost to the sea, to go to work for Apple Computer.
60
175000
3000
03:14
Warner, of course, writes off more than 400 million dollars.
61
178000
4000
03:18
Four hundred million dollars, which was real money back in the '70s.
62
182000
4000
03:22
But they were onto something and they got better at it.
63
186000
3000
03:25
By the year 2000, the process was perfected. They merged with AOL,
64
189000
4000
03:29
and in just four years, managed to shed about 200 billion dollars
65
193000
5000
03:34
of market capitalization, showing that they'd actually mastered the art
66
198000
5000
03:39
of applying Moore's law of successive miniaturization
67
203000
4000
03:43
to their balance sheet.
68
207000
2000
03:45
(Laughter)
69
209000
1000
03:46
Now, I think that one reason that the media and the entertainment communities,
70
210000
5000
03:51
or the media community, is driven so crazy by the tech community
71
215000
4000
03:55
is that tech folks talk differently.
72
219000
2000
03:57
You know, for 50 years, we've talked about changing the world,
73
221000
3000
04:00
about total transformation.
74
224000
2000
04:02
For 50 years, it's been about hopes and fears
75
226000
2000
04:04
and promises of a better world. And I got to thinking,
76
228000
3000
04:07
you know, who else talks that way?
77
231000
3000
04:10
And the answer is pretty clearly --
78
234000
2000
04:12
it's people in religion and in politics.
79
236000
3000
04:15
And so I realized that actually the tech world is best understood,
80
239000
4000
04:19
not as a business cycle, but as a messianic movement.
81
243000
2000
04:21
We promise something great, we evangelize it,
82
245000
3000
04:24
we're going to change the world. It doesn't work out too well,
83
248000
3000
04:27
and so we actually go back to the well and start all over again,
84
251000
4000
04:31
as the people in New York and L.A. look on in absolute, morbid astonishment.
85
255000
5000
04:36
But it's this irrational view of things that drives us on to the next thing.
86
260000
3000
04:39
So, what I'd like to ask is, if the computer is becoming a principal tool
87
263000
4000
04:43
of media and entertainment, how did we get here?
88
267000
3000
04:46
I mean, how did a machine that was built for accounting
89
270000
2000
04:48
and artillery morph into media?
90
272000
3000
04:51
Of course, the first computer was built just after World War II
91
275000
2000
04:53
to solve military problems, but things got really interesting
92
277000
5000
04:58
just a couple of years later -- 1949 with Whirlwind,
93
282000
5000
05:03
built at MIT's Lincoln Lab. Jay Forrester was building this for the Navy,
94
287000
5000
05:08
but you can't help but see that the creator of this machine had in mind
95
292000
3000
05:11
a machine that might actually be a potential media star.
96
295000
4000
05:15
So take a look at what happens when the foremost journalist
97
299000
3000
05:18
of early television meets one of the foremost computer pioneers,
98
302000
4000
05:22
and the computer begins to express itself.
99
306000
2000
05:24
(Video) Journalist: It's a Whirlwind electronic computer.
100
308000
3000
05:27
With considerable trepidation,
101
311000
2000
05:29
we undertake to interview this new machine.
102
313000
2000
05:31
Jay Forrester: Hello New York, this is Cambridge.
103
315000
4000
05:35
And this is the oscilloscope of the Whirlwind electronic computer.
104
319000
4000
05:39
Would you like if I used the machine?
105
323000
2000
05:41
Journalist: Yes, of course. But I have an idea, Mr. Forrester.
106
325000
3000
05:44
Since this computer was made
107
328000
1000
05:45
in conjunction with the Office of Naval Research,
108
329000
2000
05:47
why don't we switch down to the Pentagon in Washington
109
331000
2000
05:49
and let the Navy's research chief, Admiral Bolster,
110
333000
3000
05:52
give Whirlwind the workout?
111
336000
2000
05:54
Calvin Bolster: Well, Ed, this problem concerns the Navy's Viking rocket.
112
338000
5000
05:59
This rocket goes up 135 miles into the sky.
113
343000
4000
06:03
Now, at the standard rate of fuel consumption,
114
347000
3000
06:06
I would like to see the computer trace the flight path of this rocket
115
350000
4000
06:10
and see how it can determine, at any instant,
116
354000
4000
06:14
say at the end of 40 seconds, the amount of fuel remaining,
117
358000
4000
06:18
and the velocity at that set instant.
118
362000
3000
06:21
JF: Over on the left-hand side,
119
365000
2000
06:23
you will notice fuel consumption decreasing as the rocket takes off.
120
367000
4000
06:27
And on the right-hand side, there's a scale
121
371000
2000
06:29
that shows the rocket's velocity.
122
373000
2000
06:31
The rocket's position is shown by the trajectory
123
375000
4000
06:35
that we're now looking at.
124
379000
2000
06:37
And as it reaches the peak of its trajectory,
125
381000
4000
06:41
the velocity, you will notice, has dropped off to a minimum.
126
385000
2000
06:43
Then, as the rocket dives down, velocity picks up again
127
387000
5000
06:48
toward a maximum velocity and the rocket hits the ground.
128
392000
3000
06:51
How's that?
129
395000
1000
06:52
Journalist: What about that, Admiral?
130
396000
3000
06:55
CB: Looks very good to me.
131
399000
2000
06:57
JF: And before leaving, we would like to show you another kind of
132
401000
3000
07:00
mathematical problem that some of the boys have worked out
133
404000
3000
07:03
in their spare time, in a less serious vein, for a Sunday afternoon. (Music)
134
407000
5000
07:14
Journalist: Thank you very much indeed, Mr. Forrester and the MIT lab.
135
418000
5000
07:19
PH: You know, so much was worked out: the first real-time interaction,
136
423000
4000
07:23
the video display, pointing a gun. It lead to the microcomputer,
137
427000
5000
07:28
but unfortunately, it was too pricey for the Navy,
138
432000
4000
07:32
and all of this would have been lost
139
436000
2000
07:34
if it weren't for a happy coincidence.
140
438000
2000
07:36
Enter the atomic bomb.
141
440000
3000
07:39
We're threatened by the greatest weapon ever,
142
443000
2000
07:41
and knowing a good thing when it sees it,
143
445000
2000
07:43
the Air Force decides it needs the biggest computer ever to protect us.
144
447000
4000
07:47
They adapt Whirlwind to a massive air defense system,
145
451000
3000
07:50
deploy it all across the frozen north,
146
454000
2000
07:52
and spend nearly three times as much on this computer
147
456000
4000
07:56
as was spent on the Manhattan Project
148
460000
2000
07:58
building the A-Bomb in the first place.
149
462000
2000
08:00
Talk about a shot in the arm for the computer industry.
150
464000
2000
08:02
And you can imagine that the Air Force became a pretty good salesman.
151
466000
4000
08:06
Here's their marketing video.
152
470000
2000
08:17
(Video) Narrator: In a mass raid, high-speed bombers could be in on us
153
481000
4000
08:21
before we could determine their tracks.
154
485000
2000
08:23
And then it would be too late to act.
155
487000
2000
08:32
We cannot afford to take that chance.
156
496000
4000
08:36
It is to meet this threat that the Air Force has been developing SAGE,
157
500000
5000
08:41
the Semi-Automatic Ground Environment system,
158
505000
3000
08:44
to strengthen our air defenses.
159
508000
3000
08:47
This new computer, built to become the nerve center of a defense network,
160
511000
4000
08:51
is able to perform all the complex mathematical problems
161
515000
4000
08:55
involved in countering a mass enemy raid.
162
519000
3000
08:58
It is provided with its own powerhouse
163
522000
3000
09:01
containing large diesel-driven generators,
164
525000
3000
09:04
air-conditioning equipment, and cooling towers
165
528000
3000
09:07
required to cool the thousands of vacuum tubes in the computer.
166
531000
5000
09:12
PH: You know, that one computer was huge.
167
536000
3000
09:15
There's an interesting marketing lesson from it,
168
539000
2000
09:17
which is basically, when you market a product,
169
541000
2000
09:19
you can either say, this is going to be wonderful,
170
543000
2000
09:21
it will make you feel better and enliven you.
171
545000
3000
09:24
Or there's one other marketing proposition: if you don't use our product, you'll die.
172
548000
4000
09:28
This is a really good example of that.
173
552000
2000
09:30
This had the first pointing device. It was distributed,
174
554000
3000
09:33
so it worked out -- distributed computing and modems --
175
557000
2000
09:35
so all these things could talk to each other.
176
559000
2000
09:37
About 20 percent of all the nation's programmers were wrapped up in this thing,
177
561000
4000
09:41
and it led to an awful lot of what we have today. It also used vacuum tubes.
178
565000
6000
09:47
You saw how huge it was, and to give you a sense for this --
179
571000
3000
09:50
because we've talked a lot about Moore's law and making things small
180
574000
2000
09:52
at this conference, so let's talk about making things large.
181
576000
4000
09:56
If we took Whirlwind and put it in a place that you all know,
182
580000
3000
09:59
say, Century City, it would fit beautifully.
183
583000
2000
10:01
You'd kind of have to take Century City out, but it could fit in there.
184
585000
4000
10:05
But like, let's imagine we took the latest Pentium processor,
185
589000
4000
10:09
the latest Core 2 Extreme, which is a four-core processor
186
593000
3000
10:12
that Intel's working on, it will be our laptop tomorrow.
187
596000
3000
10:15
To build that, what we'd do with Whirlwind technology is
188
599000
4000
10:19
we'd have to take up roughly from the 10 to Mulholland,
189
603000
4000
10:23
and from the 405 to La Cienega just with those Whirlwinds.
190
607000
4000
10:27
And then, the 92 nuclear power plants
191
611000
3000
10:30
that it would take to provide the power
192
614000
3000
10:33
would fill up the rest of Los Angeles.
193
617000
2000
10:35
That's roughly a third more nuclear power than all of France creates.
194
619000
3000
10:38
So, the next time they tell you they're on to something, clearly they're not.
195
622000
3000
10:41
So -- and we haven't even worked out the cooling needs.
196
625000
3000
10:44
But it gives you the kind of power that people have, that the audience has,
197
628000
3000
10:47
and the reasons these transformations are happening.
198
631000
2000
10:49
All of this stuff starts moving into industry.
199
633000
2000
10:51
DEC kind of reduces all this and makes the first mini-computer.
200
635000
4000
10:55
It shows up at places like MIT, and then a mutation happens.
201
639000
4000
10:59
Spacewar! is built, the first computer game, and all of a sudden,
202
643000
4000
11:03
interactivity and involvement and passion is worked out.
203
647000
4000
11:07
Actually, many MIT students stayed up all night long working on this thing,
204
651000
4000
11:11
and many of the principles of gaming today were worked out.
205
655000
2000
11:13
DEC knew a good thing about wasting time.
206
657000
4000
11:17
It shipped every one of its computers with that game.
207
661000
3000
11:20
Meanwhile, as all of this is happening, by the mid-'50s,
208
664000
3000
11:23
the business model of traditional broadcasting and cinema
209
667000
4000
11:27
has been busted completely.
210
671000
2000
11:29
A new technology has confounded radio men and movie moguls
211
673000
4000
11:33
and they're quite certain that television is about to do them in.
212
677000
4000
11:37
In fact, despair is in the air.
213
681000
2000
11:39
And a quote that sounds largely reminiscent
214
683000
3000
11:42
from everything I've been reading all week.
215
686000
2000
11:44
RCA had David Sarnoff, who basically commercialized radio,
216
688000
4000
11:48
said this, "I don't say that radio networks must die.
217
692000
4000
11:52
Every effort has been made and will continue to be made
218
696000
2000
11:54
to find a new pattern, new selling arrangements
219
698000
3000
11:57
and new types of programs that may arrest the declining revenues.
220
701000
4000
12:01
It may yet be possible to eke out a poor existence for radio,
221
705000
3000
12:04
but I don't know how."
222
708000
2000
12:06
And of course, as the computer industry develops interactively,
223
710000
3000
12:09
producers in the emerging TV business actually hit on the same idea.
224
713000
5000
12:14
And they fake it.
225
718000
2000
12:29
(Video) Jack Berry: Boys and girls, I think you all know how to get your magic windows
226
733000
3000
12:32
up on the set, you just get them out.
227
736000
2000
12:34
First of all, get your Winky Dink kits out.
228
738000
2000
12:36
Put out your Magic Window and your erasing glove, and rub it like this.
229
740000
3000
12:39
That's the way we get some of the magic into it, boys and girls.
230
743000
3000
12:42
Then take it and put it right up against the screen of your own television set,
231
746000
2000
12:44
and rub it out from the center to the corners, like this.
232
748000
4000
12:48
Make sure you keep your magic crayons handy, your Winky Dink crayons
233
752000
2000
12:50
and your erasing glove,
234
754000
2000
12:52
because you'll be using them during the show to draw like that.
235
756000
2000
12:54
You all set? OK, let's get right to the first story about Dusty Man.
236
758000
4000
12:58
Come on into the secret lab.
237
762000
1000
12:59
PH: It was the dawn of interactive TV, and you may have noticed
238
763000
3000
13:02
they wanted to sell you the Winky Dink kits.
239
766000
2000
13:04
Those are the Winky Dink crayons. I know what you're saying.
240
768000
3000
13:07
"Pete, I could use any ordinary open-source crayon,
241
771000
3000
13:10
why do I have to buy theirs?"
242
774000
2000
13:12
I assure you, that's not the case.
243
776000
3000
13:15
Turns out they told us directly that these are the only crayons
244
779000
3000
13:18
you should ever use with your Winky Dink Magic Window,
245
782000
3000
13:21
other crayons may discolor or hurt the window.
246
785000
4000
13:25
This proprietary principle of vendor lock-in
247
789000
4000
13:29
would go on to be perfected with great success
248
793000
3000
13:32
as one of the enduring principles of windowing systems everywhere.
249
796000
4000
13:36
It led to lawsuits --
250
800000
2000
13:38
(Laughter) --
251
802000
1000
13:39
federal investigations, and lots of repercussions,
252
803000
3000
13:42
and that's a scandal we won't discuss today.
253
806000
3000
13:45
But we will discuss this scandal, because this man, Jack Berry, the host of "Winky Dink,"
254
809000
5000
13:50
went on to become the host of "Twenty One," one of the most important quiz shows ever.
255
814000
5000
13:55
And it was rigged, and it became unraveled when this man,
256
819000
3000
13:58
Charles van Doren, was outed after an unnatural winning streak,
257
822000
3000
14:01
ending Berry's career.
258
825000
2000
14:03
And actually, ending the career of a lot of people at CBS.
259
827000
3000
14:06
It turns out there was a lot to learn
260
830000
3000
14:09
about how this new medium worked.
261
833000
2000
14:11
And 50 years ago, if you'd been at a meeting like this
262
835000
2000
14:13
and were trying to understand the media,
263
837000
3000
14:16
there was one prophet and only but one you wanted to hear from,
264
840000
3000
14:19
Professor Marshall McLuhan.
265
843000
2000
14:21
He actually understood something about a theme
266
845000
2000
14:23
that we've been discussing all week. It's the role of the audience
267
847000
4000
14:27
in an era of pervasive electronic communications.
268
851000
3000
14:30
Here he is talking from the 1960s.
269
854000
2000
14:32
(Video) Marshall McLuhan: If the audience can become involved in the actual process
270
856000
5000
14:37
of making the ad, then it's happy. It's like the old quiz shows.
271
861000
5000
14:42
They were great TV because it gave the audience a role, something to do.
272
866000
4000
14:46
They were horrified when they discovered
273
870000
2000
14:48
they'd really been left out all the time because the shows were rigged.
274
872000
3000
14:51
Now, then, this was a horrible misunderstanding of TV
275
875000
3000
14:54
on the part of the programmers.
276
878000
2000
14:56
PH: You know, McLuhan talked about the global village.
277
880000
2000
14:58
If you substitute the word blogosphere, of the Internet today,
278
882000
4000
15:02
it is very true that his understanding is probably
279
886000
3000
15:05
very enlightening now. Let's listen in to him.
280
889000
2000
15:07
(Video) MM: The global village is a world
281
891000
2000
15:09
in which you don't necessarily have harmony.
282
893000
2000
15:11
You have extreme concern with everybody else's business
283
895000
4000
15:15
and much involvement in everybody else's life.
284
899000
3000
15:18
It's a sort of Ann Landers' column writ large.
285
902000
3000
15:21
And it doesn't necessarily mean harmony and peace and quiet,
286
905000
5000
15:26
but it does mean huge involvement in everybody else's affairs.
287
910000
5000
15:31
And so the global village is as big as a planet,
288
915000
3000
15:34
and as small as a village post office.
289
918000
4000
15:38
PH: We'll talk a little bit more about him later.
290
922000
1000
15:39
We're now right into the 1960s.
291
923000
3000
15:42
It's the era of big business and data centers for computing.
292
926000
3000
15:45
But all that was about to change.
293
929000
2000
15:47
You know, the expression of technology
294
931000
2000
15:49
reflects the people and the time of the culture it was built in.
295
933000
3000
15:52
And when I say that code expresses our hopes and aspirations,
296
936000
3000
15:55
it's not just a joke about messianism, it's actually what we do.
297
939000
4000
15:59
But for this part of the story, I'd actually like to throw it
298
943000
2000
16:01
to America's leading technology correspondent, John Markoff.
299
945000
4000
16:05
(Video) John Markoff: Do you want to know what the counterculture
300
949000
2000
16:07
in drugs, sex, rock 'n' roll and the anti-war movement
301
951000
2000
16:09
had to do with computing? Everything.
302
953000
2000
16:11
It all happened within five miles of where I'm standing,
303
955000
3000
16:14
at Stanford University, between 1960 and 1975.
304
958000
4000
16:18
In the midst of revolution in the streets
305
962000
2000
16:20
and rock and roll concerts in the parks,
306
964000
3000
16:23
a group of researchers led by people like John McCarthy,
307
967000
3000
16:26
a computer scientist at the Stanford Artificial Intelligence Lab,
308
970000
3000
16:29
and Doug Engelbart, a computer scientist at SRI, changed the world.
309
973000
4000
16:33
Engelbart came out of a pretty dry engineering culture,
310
977000
4000
16:37
but while he was beginning to do his work,
311
981000
3000
16:40
all of this stuff was bubbling on the mid-peninsula.
312
984000
3000
16:43
There was LSD leaking out of Kesey's Veterans' Hospital experiments
313
987000
6000
16:49
and other areas around the campus,
314
993000
3000
16:52
and there was music literally in the streets.
315
996000
2000
16:54
The Grateful Dead was playing in the pizza parlors.
316
998000
2000
16:56
People were leaving to go back to the land.
317
1000000
2000
16:58
There was the Vietnam War. There was black liberation.
318
1002000
3000
17:01
There was women's liberation.
319
1005000
2000
17:03
This was a remarkable place, at a remarkable time.
320
1007000
3000
17:06
And into that ferment came the microprocessor.
321
1010000
3000
17:09
I think it was that interaction that led to personal computing.
322
1013000
3000
17:12
They saw these tools that were controlled by the establishment
323
1016000
4000
17:16
as ones that could actually be liberated and put to use
324
1020000
3000
17:19
by these communities that they were trying to build.
325
1023000
2000
17:21
And most importantly, they had this ethos of sharing information.
326
1025000
5000
17:26
I think these ideas are difficult to understand,
327
1030000
2000
17:28
because when you're trapped in one paradigm,
328
1032000
3000
17:31
the next paradigm is always like a science fiction universe -- it makes no sense.
329
1035000
5000
17:36
The stories were so compelling that I decided to write a book about them.
330
1040000
4000
17:40
The title of the book is, "What the Dormouse Said:
331
1044000
2000
17:42
How the '60s Counterculture Shaped the Personal Computer Industry."
332
1046000
4000
17:46
The title was taken from the lyrics
333
1050000
1000
17:47
to a Jefferson Airplane song. The lyrics go,
334
1051000
3000
17:50
"Remember what the dormouse said.
335
1054000
2000
17:52
Feed your head, feed your head, feed your head." (Music)
336
1056000
2000
18:42
PH: By this time, computing had kind of leapt into media territory,
337
1106000
3000
18:45
and in short order much of what we're doing today was imagined
338
1109000
3000
18:48
in Cambridge and Silicon Valley.
339
1112000
1000
18:49
Here's the Architecture Machine Group,
340
1113000
2000
18:51
the predecessor of the Media Lab, in 1981.
341
1115000
3000
18:54
Meanwhile, in California, we were trying to commercialize a lot of this stuff.
342
1118000
4000
18:58
HyperCard was the first program
343
1122000
2000
19:00
to introduce the public to hyperlinks,
344
1124000
2000
19:02
where you could randomly hook to any kind of picture,
345
1126000
3000
19:05
or piece of text, or data across a file system,
346
1129000
3000
19:08
and we had no way of explaining it.
347
1132000
2000
19:10
There was no metaphor. Was it a database?
348
1134000
2000
19:12
A prototyping tool? A scripted language?
349
1136000
3000
19:15
Heck, it was everything. So we ended up writing a marketing brochure.
350
1139000
3000
19:18
We asked a question about how the mind works,
351
1142000
3000
19:21
and we let our customers play the role of so many blind men filling out the elephant.
352
1145000
4000
19:25
A few years later, we then hit on the idea
353
1149000
5000
19:30
of explaining to people the secret of, how do you get the content you want,
354
1154000
4000
19:34
the way you want it and the easy way?
355
1158000
3000
19:37
Here's the Apple marketing video.
356
1161000
2000
19:39
(Video) James Burke: You'll be pleased to know, I'm sure, that there are several ways
357
1163000
3000
19:42
to create a HyperCard interactive video.
358
1166000
3000
19:45
The most involved method is to go ahead
359
1169000
2000
19:47
and produce your own videodisc
360
1171000
2000
19:49
as well as build your own HyperCard stacks.
361
1173000
3000
19:52
By far the simplest method is to buy a pre-made videodisc
362
1176000
3000
19:55
and HyperCard stacks from a commercial supplier.
363
1179000
3000
19:58
The method we illustrate in this video
364
1182000
2000
20:00
uses a pre-made videodisc but creates custom HyperCard stacks.
365
1184000
4000
20:04
This method allows you to use existing videodisc materials
366
1188000
3000
20:07
in ways which suit your specific needs and interests.
367
1191000
3000
20:10
PH: I hope you realize how subversive that is.
368
1194000
2000
20:12
That's like a Dick Cheney speech.
369
1196000
2000
20:14
You think he's a nice balding guy, but he's just declared war
370
1198000
3000
20:17
on the content business. Find the commercial stuff,
371
1201000
4000
20:21
mash it up, tell the story your way.
372
1205000
2000
20:23
Now, as long as we confine this to the education market,
373
1207000
2000
20:25
and a personal matter between the computer and the file system,
374
1209000
3000
20:28
that's fine, but as you can see, it was about to leap out and upset Jack Valenti
375
1212000
4000
20:32
and a lot of other people.
376
1216000
2000
20:34
By the way, speaking of the filing system, it never occurred to us
377
1218000
3000
20:37
that these hyperlinks could go beyond the local area network.
378
1221000
3000
20:40
A few years later, Tim Berners-Lee worked that out.
379
1224000
3000
20:43
It became a killer app of links, and today, of course,
380
1227000
2000
20:45
we call that the World Wide Web.
381
1229000
3000
20:48
Now, not only was I instrumental in helping Apple miss the Internet,
382
1232000
4000
20:52
but a couple of years later, I helped Bill Gates do the same thing.
383
1236000
3000
20:55
The year is 1993
384
1239000
4000
20:59
and he was working on a book and I was working on a video
385
1243000
4000
21:03
to help him kind of explain where we were all heading and how to popularize all this.
386
1247000
5000
21:08
We were plenty aware that we were messing with media,
387
1252000
3000
21:11
and on the surface, it looks like we predicted a lot of the right things,
388
1255000
3000
21:14
but we also missed an awful lot. Let's take a look.
389
1258000
3000
21:27
(Video) Narrator: The pyramids, the Colosseum, the New York subway system
390
1271000
6000
21:33
and TV dinners, ancient and modern wonders of the man-made world all.
391
1277000
8000
21:41
Yet each pales to insignificance with the completion
392
1285000
3000
21:44
of that magnificent accomplishment of twenty-first-century technology,
393
1288000
4000
21:48
the Digital Superhighway.
394
1292000
3000
21:51
Once it was only a dream of technoids and a few long-forgotten politicians.
395
1295000
6000
21:57
The Digital Highway arrived in America's living rooms late in the twentieth century.
396
1301000
5000
22:04
Let us recall the pioneers who made this technical marvel possible.
397
1308000
5000
22:09
The Digital Highway would follow the rutted trail
398
1313000
3000
22:12
first blazed by Alexander Graham Bell.
399
1316000
3000
22:25
Though some were incredulous ... Man 1: The phone company!
400
1329000
3000
22:28
Narrator: Stirred by the prospects of mass communication
401
1332000
3000
22:31
and making big bucks on advertising,
402
1335000
3000
22:34
David Sarnoff commercializes radio.
403
1338000
3000
22:37
Man 2: Never had scientists been put under such pressure and demand.
404
1341000
4000
22:41
Narrator: The medium introduced America to new products.
405
1345000
3000
22:44
Voice 1: Say, mom, Windows for Radio means more enjoyment
406
1348000
4000
22:48
and greater ease of use for the whole family.
407
1352000
2000
22:50
Be sure to enjoy Windows for Radio at home and at work.
408
1354000
5000
22:55
Narrator: In 1939, the Radio Corporation of America introduced television.
409
1359000
7000
23:02
Man 2: Never had scientists been put under such pressure and demand.
410
1366000
3000
23:05
Narrator: Eventually, the race to the future took on added momentum
411
1369000
3000
23:08
with the breakup of the telephone company.
412
1372000
3000
23:11
And further stimulus came
413
1375000
2000
23:13
with the deregulation of the cable television industry,
414
1377000
4000
23:17
and the re-regulation of the cable television industry.
415
1381000
4000
23:21
Ted Turner: We did the work to build this, this cable industry,
416
1385000
2000
23:23
now the broadcasters want some of our money. I mean, it's ridiculous.
417
1387000
5000
23:28
Narrator: Computers, once the unwieldy tools of accountants and other geeks,
418
1392000
5000
23:33
escaped the backrooms to enter the media fracas.
419
1397000
4000
23:37
The world and all its culture reduced to bits,
420
1401000
3000
23:40
the lingua franca of all media.
421
1404000
4000
23:44
And the forces of convergence exploded.
422
1408000
4000
23:48
Finally, four great industrial sectors combined.
423
1412000
4000
23:52
Telecommunications, entertainment, computing and everything else.
424
1416000
6000
23:58
Man 3: We'll see channels for the gourmet
425
1422000
3000
24:01
and we'll see channels for the pet lover.
426
1425000
2000
24:03
Voice 2: Next on the gourmet pet channel,
427
1427000
2000
24:05
decorating birthday cakes for your schnauzer.
428
1429000
2000
24:07
Narrator: All of industry was in play, as investors flocked to place their bets.
429
1431000
5000
24:12
At stake: the battle for you, the consumer,
430
1436000
4000
24:16
and the right to spend billions to send a lot of information into the parlors of America. (Music)
431
1440000
9000
25:15
PH: We missed a lot. You know, you missed, we missed the Internet,
432
1499000
3000
25:18
the long tail, the role of the audience, open systems, social networks.
433
1502000
5000
25:23
It just goes to show how tough it is to come up with the right uses of media.
434
1507000
3000
25:26
Thomas Edison had the same problem.
435
1510000
2000
25:28
He wrote a list of what the phonograph might be good for when he invented it,
436
1512000
4000
25:32
and kind of only one of his ideas
437
1516000
2000
25:34
turned out to have been the right early idea.
438
1518000
2000
25:36
Well, you know where we're going on from here.
439
1520000
3000
25:39
We come into the era of the dotcom, the World Wide Web,
440
1523000
4000
25:43
and I don't need to tell you about that
441
1527000
1000
25:44
because we all went through that bubble together.
442
1528000
2000
25:46
But when we emerge from this and what we call Web 2.0,
443
1530000
3000
25:49
things actually are quite different.
444
1533000
2000
25:51
And I think it's the reason that TV's so challenged.
445
1535000
2000
25:53
If Internet one was about pages, now it's about people.
446
1537000
4000
25:57
It's a customer, it's an audience, it's a person who's participating.
447
1541000
5000
26:02
It's the formidable thing that is changing entertainment now.
448
1546000
4000
26:06
(Video) MM: Because it gave the audience a role, something to do.
449
1550000
3000
26:09
PH: In my own company, Technorati,
450
1553000
2000
26:11
we see something like 67,000 blog posts an hour come in.
451
1555000
5000
26:16
That's about 2,700 fresh, connective links
452
1560000
4000
26:20
across about 112 million blogs that are out there.
453
1564000
3000
26:23
And it's no wonder that as we head into the writers' strike, odd things happen.
454
1567000
3000
26:26
You know, it reminds me of that old saw in Hollywood,
455
1570000
2000
26:28
that a producer is anyone who knows a writer.
456
1572000
3000
26:31
I now think a network boss is anyone who has a cable modem.
457
1575000
4000
26:35
But it's not a joke. This is a real headline.
458
1579000
2000
26:37
"Websites attract striking writers:
459
1581000
3000
26:40
operators of sites like MyDamnChannel.com
460
1584000
3000
26:43
could benefit from labor disputes."
461
1587000
2000
26:45
Meanwhile, you have the TV bloggers going out on strike,
462
1589000
3000
26:48
in sympathy with the television writers.
463
1592000
3000
26:51
And then you have TV Guide, a Fox property,
464
1595000
2000
26:53
which is about to sponsor the online video awards --
465
1597000
2000
26:55
but cancels it out of sympathy with traditional television,
466
1599000
4000
26:59
not appearing to gloat.
467
1603000
2000
27:01
To show you how schizophrenic this all is,
468
1605000
3000
27:04
here's the head of MySpace, or Fox Interactive, a News Corp company,
469
1608000
5000
27:09
being asked, well, with the writers' strike,
470
1613000
2000
27:11
isn't this going to hurt News Corp and help you online?
471
1615000
4000
27:15
(Video) Man: But I, yeah, I think there's an opportunity. As the strike continues,
472
1619000
3000
27:18
there's an opportunity for more people to experience
473
1622000
2000
27:20
video on places like MySpace TV.
474
1624000
3000
27:23
PH: Oh, but then he remembers he works for Rupert Murdoch.
475
1627000
3000
27:26
(Video) Man: Yes, well, first, you know, I'm part of News Corporation
476
1630000
2000
27:28
as part of Fox Entertainment Group.
477
1632000
2000
27:30
Obviously, we hope that the strike is --
478
1634000
2000
27:32
that the issues are resolved as quickly as possible.
479
1636000
3000
27:35
PH: One of the great things that's going on here is
480
1639000
2000
27:37
the globalization of content really is happening.
481
1641000
3000
27:40
Here is a clip from a video, from a piece of animation
482
1644000
5000
27:45
that was written by a writer in Hollywood,
483
1649000
2000
27:47
animation worked out in Israel, farmed out to Croatia and India,
484
1651000
4000
27:51
and it's now an international series.
485
1655000
2000
27:57
(Video) Narrator: The following takes place between the minutes of 2:15 p.m. and 2:18 p.m.,
486
1661000
4000
28:01
in the months preceding the presidential primaries.
487
1665000
4000
28:05
Voice 1: You'll have to stay here in the safe house
488
1669000
2000
28:07
until we get word the terrorist threat is over.
489
1671000
3000
28:10
Voice 2: You mean we'll have to live here, together?
490
1674000
4000
28:14
Voices 2, 3 and 4: With her?
491
1678000
2000
28:16
Voice 2: Well, there goes the neighborhood.
492
1680000
2000
28:18
PH: The company that created this, Aniboom, is an interesting example
493
1682000
3000
28:21
of where this is headed. Traditional TV animation costs, say,
494
1685000
3000
28:24
between 80,000 and 10,000 dollars a minute.
495
1688000
3000
28:27
They're producing things for between 1,500 and 800 dollars a minute.
496
1691000
4000
28:31
And they're offering their creators 30 percent of the back end,
497
1695000
3000
28:34
in a much more entrepreneurial manner. So, it's a different model.
498
1698000
4000
28:38
What the entertainment business is struggling with,
499
1702000
2000
28:40
the world of brands is figuring out.
500
1704000
2000
28:42
For example, Nike now understands that Nike Plus is not just a device in its shoe,
501
1706000
6000
28:48
it's a network to hook its customers together.
502
1712000
2000
28:50
And the head of marketing at Nike says, "People are coming to our site
503
1714000
3000
28:53
an average of three times a week. We don't have to go to them."
504
1717000
4000
28:57
Which means television advertising is down 57 percent for Nike.
505
1721000
5000
29:02
Or, as Nike's head of marketing says,
506
1726000
2000
29:04
"We're not in the business of keeping media companies alive.
507
1728000
3000
29:07
We're in the business of connecting with consumers."
508
1731000
2000
29:09
And media companies realize the audience is important also.
509
1733000
3000
29:12
Here's a man announcing the new Market Watch from Dow Jones,
510
1736000
4000
29:16
powered 100 percent by the user experience on the home page --
511
1740000
3000
29:19
user-generated content married up with traditional content.
512
1743000
3000
29:22
It turns out you have a bigger audience and more interest if you hook up with them.
513
1746000
3000
29:25
Or, as Geoffrey Moore once told me,
514
1749000
3000
29:28
it's intellectual curiosity that's the trade that brands need
515
1752000
4000
29:32
in the age of the blogosphere.
516
1756000
1000
29:33
And I think this is beginning to happen in the entertainment business.
517
1757000
3000
29:36
One of my heroes is songwriter, Ally Willis,
518
1760000
2000
29:38
who just wrote "The Color Purple" and has been an R and --
519
1762000
4000
29:42
rhythm and blues writer, and this is what she said
520
1766000
3000
29:45
about where songwriting's going.
521
1769000
1000
29:46
Ally Willis: Where millions of collaborators wanted the song,
522
1770000
4000
29:50
because to look at them strictly as spam
523
1774000
3000
29:53
is missing what this medium is about.
524
1777000
4000
29:57
PH: So, to wrap up, I'd love to throw it back to Marshall McLuhan,
525
1781000
4000
30:01
who, 40 years ago, was dealing with audiences
526
1785000
3000
30:04
that were going through just as much change,
527
1788000
2000
30:06
and I think that, today, traditional Hollywood and the writers
528
1790000
3000
30:09
are framing this perhaps in the way that it was being framed before.
529
1793000
3000
30:12
But I don't need to tell you this, let's throw it back to him.
530
1796000
4000
30:16
(Video) Narrator: We are in the middle of a tremendous clash between the old and the new.
531
1800000
7000
30:23
MM: The medium does things to people
532
1807000
3000
30:26
and they are always completely unaware of this.
533
1810000
3000
30:29
They don't really notice the new medium that is wrapping them up.
534
1813000
5000
30:34
They think of the old medium,
535
1818000
2000
30:36
because the old medium is always the content of the new medium,
536
1820000
5000
30:41
as movies tend to be the content of TV,
537
1825000
3000
30:44
and as books used to be the content,
538
1828000
2000
30:46
novels used to be the content of movies.
539
1830000
2000
30:48
And so every time a new medium arrives,
540
1832000
2000
30:50
the old medium is the content, and it is highly observable,
541
1834000
4000
30:54
highly noticeable, but the real, real roughing up and massaging
542
1838000
4000
30:58
is done by the new medium, and it is ignored.
543
1842000
2000
31:00
PH: I think it's a great time of enthrallment.
544
1844000
2000
31:02
There's been more raw DNA of communications and media
545
1846000
3000
31:05
thrown out there. Content is moving from shows to particles
546
1849000
4000
31:09
that are batted back and forth, and part of social communications,
547
1853000
4000
31:13
and I think this is going to be a time of great renaissance and opportunity.
548
1857000
5000
31:18
And whereas television may have gotten beat up,
549
1862000
3000
31:21
what's getting built is a really exciting new form of communication,
550
1865000
3000
31:24
and we kind of have the merger of the two industries
551
1868000
4000
31:28
and a new way of thinking to look at it.
552
1872000
2000
31:30
Thanks very much.
553
1874000
1000

▲Back to top

ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Peter Hirshberg - Entrepreneur, marketer
A Silicon Valley executive, entrepreneur and marketing specialist, Peter Hirshberg might just be the definitive voice on how new technology affects business and culture.

Why you should listen

The Internet would change everything: it's a truism now, but for some, this took years to sink in. Not for Peter Hirshberg. A marketing specialist at the epicenter of emerging technology, he has spent a quarter of a century charting the reverberations of all things high tech in culture and in business. (It's big business, too.)

Hirshberg first helped bring Apple into the online services arena., then acted as strategic adviser to Microsoft, AOL and NBC. Along the way, he was CEO of Gloss.com and Elemental Software. He's built a deep understanding of the fundamentals of content production and consumption -- and how they've changed, both online and off.

Hirshberg is a trustee of the Computer History Museum and a Henry Crown Fellow of the Aspen Institute. He serves on the advisory board of Technorati and keeps up a lively blog on disruptive culture.

More profile about the speaker
Peter Hirshberg | Speaker | TED.com

Data provided by TED.

This site was created in May 2015 and the last update was on January 12, 2020. It will no longer be updated.

We are currently creating a new site called "eng.lish.video" and would be grateful if you could access it.

If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to write comments in your language on the contact form.

Privacy Policy

Developer's Blog

Buy Me A Coffee