TED2014
Nicholas Negroponte: A 30-year history of the future
尼葛洛庞帝: 未来的 30 年历史
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MIT 媒体实验室的创始人尼古拉斯 内格罗蓬特带你走上一个游览历史 30 年科技发展的旅程。 这个完美的语言者强调了他在 20 世纪的 70 和 80 年代所看到的那些当时被忽略却现在普及生活的操作界面和发明创兴。他还给你留下了对于未来 30 年的一个预测。
Nicholas Negroponte - Tech visionary
The founder of the MIT Media Lab, Nicholas Negroponte pushed the edge of the information revolution as an inventor, thinker and angel investor. He's the driving force behind One Laptop per Child, building computers for children in the developing world. Full bio
The founder of the MIT Media Lab, Nicholas Negroponte pushed the edge of the information revolution as an inventor, thinker and angel investor. He's the driving force behind One Laptop per Child, building computers for children in the developing world. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
（视频）尼葛洛庞帝：我们能调到视频光碟么？
00:12
(Video) Nicholas Negroponte:
Can we switch to the video disc,
Can we switch to the video disc,
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00:15
which is in play mode?
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播放模式是什么？
00:17
I'm really interested in how you put people and computers together.
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我对于你如何把人和和电脑放在一起非常感兴趣。
我们将会用电视屏幕或类似的东西
00:22
We will be using the TV screens or their equivalents
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00:25
for electronic books of the future.
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来当做未来的书籍。
00:30
(Music, crosstalk)
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（音乐，电信频道之间的串话干扰）
00:50
Very interested in touch-sensitive displays,
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对于触摸屏幕，
00:52
high-tech, high-touch, not having
to pick up your fingers to use them.
to pick up your fingers to use them.
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高科技，高触感，不需要拿起手指就可以操纵它们。
有另外一种方式电脑和人可以相互接触
00:56
There is another way where computers
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00:58
touch people: wearing, physically wearing.
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穿戴高科技的物品。
01:08
Suddenly on September 11th,
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突然，在 9 月 11 日。
01:10
the world got bigger.
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世界变大了。
01:13
NN: Thank you. (Applause)
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谢谢。（掌声）
01:16
Thank you.
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谢谢
01:18
When I was asked to do this,
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当我被请来做这个的时候。
01:20
I was also asked to look at all 14 TED Talks
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我还被要求观看 14 个 TED 演讲
01:24
that I had given,
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这些演讲
01:26
chronologically.
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都是按时间顺序的。
01:28
The first one was actually two hours.
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第一个有两小时。
01:30
The second one was an hour,
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第二个有两小时，
01:31
and then they became half hours,
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接着变成了半个小时，
01:33
and all I noticed was my bald spot getting bigger.
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我还注意到了我的秃顶越来越严重了。
01:37
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
01:38
Imagine seeing your life, 30 years of it, go by,
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想象你看到你30年的是如何经过的，
01:43
and it was, to say the least,
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至少对于我来说
01:46
for me, quite a shocking experience.
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是非常震惊的一次经历。
01:50
So what I'm going to do in my time
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在这次的演讲中呢
01:52
is try and share with you what happened
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我将与你们分享
01:54
during the 30 years,
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这三十年发生了什么，
01:55
and then also make a prediction,
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并且对未来做一个预知，
01:58
and then tell you a little bit
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还告诉你们
02:00
about what I'm doing next.
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我将要做的一些事情。
02:03
And I put on a slide
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我把我第一次 TED 演讲发生的时间，
02:06
where TED 1 happened in my life.
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标注在了 PPT 里。
02:10
And it's rather important
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这是非常重要的
02:12
because I had done 15 years of research before it,
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因为在那次演讲之前我做了 15 年的调查，
02:16
so I had a backlog, so it was easy.
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我有自己的知识储备，所以并不难。
02:18
It's not that I was Fidel Castro
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不是因为我是菲德尔·卡斯特罗，或是
02:20
and I could talk for two hours,
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富勒巴基
02:22
or Bucky Fuller.
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可以说上两个小时。
02:23
I had 15 years of stuff,
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是因为我有 15 年的经验积累，
02:25
and the Media Lab was about to start.
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并且媒体实验室在那时也即将开始。
02:27
So that was easy.
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这才是简单的原因。
02:29
But there are a couple of things
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但是在那个时期，
02:32
about that period
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发生的事情。
02:33
and about what happened that are
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这些发生的事
02:36
really quite important.
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是非常重要的。
02:37
One is that
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其中一个就是
02:40
it was a period when computers
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那是一个当电脑
02:43
weren't yet for people.
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还没有普及的时代。
02:45
And the other thing that sort of happened
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还有一件在那个时期左右
02:49
during that time is that
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发生的事情是
02:52
we were considered sissy computer scientists.
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我们被认作为毫无价值的电脑科学家。
02:55
We weren't considered the real thing.
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我们不被关注。
02:57
So what I'm going to show you is, in retrospect,
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所以我要向你们展示的是
03:01
a lot more interesting and a lot more accepted
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一个更加有趣
03:03
than it was at the time.
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更加被接受的东西。
03:05
So I'm going to characterize the years
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我将要要描述的
03:08
and I'm even going to go back
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我那时的一些
03:10
to some very early work of mine,
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工作成果，
03:12
and this was the kind of stuff I was doing in the '60s:
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这就是一些我在 60 年代研究的技术：
03:15
very direct manipulation,
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直接控制电脑，
03:17
very influenced as I studied architecture
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在我学习摩西·萨夫迪的建筑学时
03:19
by the architect Moshe Safdie,
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那是非常有影响力的，
03:22
and you can see that we even built robotic things
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你还可以看到我们甚至建造
03:24
that could build habitat-like structures.
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可以建造栖息环境类似结构的机器类东西。
03:27
And this for me was
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但这对于我来说
03:29
not yet the Media Lab,
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还不算是媒体实验室，
03:31
but was the beginning of what I'll call
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但这是我将要称作为
03:33
sensory computing,
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感官计算的雏形，
03:35
and I pick fingers
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我选择手指
03:37
partly because everybody thought it was ridiculous.
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部分原因是因为所有人都认为这是荒唐的。
03:41
Papers were published
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关于使用手指控制是多么愚蠢的
03:43
about how stupid it was to use fingers.
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论文被发表。
03:47
Three reasons: One was they were low-resolution.
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有三个原因：第一个是因为低分辨率。
03:50
The other is your hand would occlude
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其次是手指会挡住
03:52
what you wanted to see,
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你想要看的，
03:54
and the third, which was the winner,
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第三个，也是这三个之中最重要的，
03:55
was that your fingers would get the screen dirty,
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你的手指会弄脏屏幕，
03:59
and hence, fingers would never be
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因此手指
04:01
a device that you'd use.
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将永不会是你要使用的设备。
04:03
And this was a device we built in the '70s,
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这是一个我们在 70 年代建造的设备，
04:06
which has never even been picked up.
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但从未再继续被继续建造。
04:08
It's not just touch sensitive,
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这不是触摸感应，
04:10
it's pressure sensitive.
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而是压敏感应。
04:12
(Video) Voice: Put a yellow circle there.
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（视频）声音：在哪里放一个黄色的圈。
04:14
NN: Later work, and again this was before TED 1 —
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尼古拉斯 内格罗蓬特：这是之后的研究，但仍然在 TED 1 之前
04:17
(Video) Voice: Move that west of the diamond.
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尼古拉斯 内格罗蓬特：把那移到菱形西边。
04:20
Create a large green circle there.
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在那里画一个大的绿色圆圈。
04:23
Man: Aw, shit.
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男人：哦，该死。
04:25
NN: — was to sort of do interface concurrently,
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尼古拉斯 内格罗蓬特：这就像多界面的同时操控，
04:29
so when you talked and you pointed
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当你说的同时你指向某一点
04:31
and you had, if you will,
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这也就是
04:34
multiple channels.
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多通道感应。
04:35
Entebbe happened.
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恩德培发生过一企事件。
04:37
1976, Air France was hijacked,
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在 1974 年，法国航空被劫机，
04:41
taken to Entebbe,
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被带到恩德培，
04:43
and the Israelis not only did an extraordinary rescue,
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以色列人不仅进行了一次完美的救援，
04:48
they did it partly because they had practiced
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因为他们
04:50
on a physical model of the airport,
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在实际模型上排练过，
04:52
because they had built the airport,
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因为他们造了这个机场，
04:53
so they built a model in the desert,
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在沙漠里建造了一个模型
04:55
and when they arrived at Entebbe,
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当他们到达恩德培时，
04:57
they knew where to go because
they had actually been there.
they had actually been there.
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他们知道该往哪里走，因为他们在模型里演练过。
05:00
The U.S. government asked some of us, '76,
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在 76 年美国政府问我们中的一些人
05:03
if we could replicate that computationally,
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我们是否可以以电脑的方式复制出那个东西，
05:06
and of course somebody like myself says yes.
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像我这样的人肯定是说了可以。
05:08
Immediately, you get a contract,
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立刻你便得到一份合同，
05:10
Department of Defense,
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防御部门，
05:11
and we built this truck and this rig.
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我们之后便造了这个卡车和其配备。
05:14
We did sort of a simulation,
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我们大概的做了模拟测试，
05:16
because you had video discs,
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因为你有视频碟片，
05:18
and again, this is '76.
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而且这仍然还是 76 年的事。
05:21
And then many years later,
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在过了些年，
05:23
you get this truck,
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就有了这个货车，
05:25
and so you have Google Maps.
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和谷歌地图。
05:28
Still people thought,
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但仍有人们想
05:29
no, that was not serious computer science,
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那不算是严谨的电脑科学，
05:33
and it was a man named Jerry Wiesner,
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但是恰好 MIT 的校长
05:35
who happened to be the president of MIT,
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杰里·威斯纳
05:38
who did think it was computer science.
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相信这是电脑科学。
05:40
And one of the keys for anybody
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一个人想在
05:43
who wants to start something in life:
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生活中做出点成就的关键
05:46
Make sure your president is part of it.
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是确保你的校长支持你。
05:49
So when I was doing the Media Lab,
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当我开始媒体实验室的时候，
05:52
it was like having a gorilla in the front seat.
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感觉就像坐在前排的大猩猩。
05:56
If you were stopped for speeding
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如果我们因为超速被拦截
05:58
and the officer looked in the window
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交警向车窗内看
06:00
and saw who was in the passenger seat,
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看到了座位里坐的是誰的时候，
06:02
then, "Oh, continue on, sir."
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他会说：“哦，请您继续开吧。”
06:04
And so we were able,
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因此我们就可以这样去做，
06:06
and this is a cute, actually, device, parenthetically.
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这也确实是一个非常可爱的设备。
06:09
This was a lenticular photograph of Jerry Wiesner
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这是杰里威斯纳的透镜照片
06:13
where the only thing that changed in the photograph
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照片里唯一能够变化的是
06:15
were the lips.
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是他的嘴唇。
06:16
So when you oscillated that little piece
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当你振荡那小小的
06:19
of lenticular sheet with his photograph,
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一片透镜时，
06:22
it would be in lip sync
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他就通过零带宽(Zero bandwidth)
06:24
with zero bandwidth.
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进行同步
06:27
It was a zero-bandwidth teleconferencing system
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这是当时零带宽
06:29
at the time.
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的一个远程会议系统。
06:31
So this was the Media Lab's —
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这是我们的媒体实验室，
06:35
this is what we said we'd do,
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这也是我们说的所要做的，
06:37
that the world of computers, publishing,
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电脑，出版等不同的领域
06:39
and so on would come together.
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将会融合到一起。
06:42
Again, not generally accepted,
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虽然再一次没有被广泛接受，
06:44
but very much part of TED in the early days.
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但是早期TED大会的一个重要部分。
06:49
And this is really where we were headed.
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这也是我们那时真正迈进的。
06:52
And that created the Media Lab.
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也就是创建媒体实验室的初衷。
06:54
One of the things about age
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关于年代
06:58
is that I can tell you with great confidence,
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我可以自信的告诉你
07:03
I've been to the future.
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我去过未来。
07:05
I've been there, actually, many times.
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实际上我去过那里很多次。
07:08
And the reason I say that is,
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我这样说的原因是
07:10
how many times in my life have I said,
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我在一生中说过太多
07:12
"Oh, in 10 years, this will happen,"
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“哦，在 10 年内，这个会成为现实的，”
07:14
and then 10 years comes.
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十年过去后。
07:16
And then you say, "Oh, in
five years, this will happen."
five years, this will happen."
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然后你说：“哦，在 5 年内这会成为现实的。”
07:18
And then five years comes.
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五年又过去了。
07:20
So I say this a little bit with having felt
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我这样说是因为我稍稍感到
07:23
that I'd been there a number of times,
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我已经去过那里几次了，
07:26
and one of the things that is most quoted
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我所说的
07:29
that I've ever said
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最频繁被人们所引用的是
07:30
is that computing is not about computers,
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电脑计算不仅仅是关于电脑，
07:33
and that didn't quite get enough traction,
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但那时没有引起人们的太多注意，
07:36
and then it started to.
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但之后便开始了。
07:38
It started to because people caught on
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它的开始是因为人们认识到
07:42
that the medium wasn't the message.
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媒体不是信息。
07:45
And the reason I show this car
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我向你展示这辆车
07:47
in actually a rather ugly slide
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在这不美观的图片中
07:50
is just again to tell you the kind of story
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是为了再次告诉你
07:52
that characterized a little bit of my life.
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能够描述我生活的一个故事。
07:55
This is a student of mine
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这是我的一个学生
07:57
who had done a Ph.D. called "Backseat Driver."
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他完成了一个叫做“后座驾驶者”的博士任务。
08:01
It was in the early days of GPS,
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那时是GPS初生的时代，
08:03
the car knew where it was,
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车子知道其位置，
08:04
and it would give audio instructions
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他回向驾驶者提出指令
08:06
to the driver, when to turn right,
when to turn left and so on.
when to turn left and so on.
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什么时候右转，或什么时候左转，等等。
08:10
Turns out, there are a lot of things
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在那时
08:11
in those instructions that back in that period
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很多那些指令
08:14
were pretty challenging,
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否是非常具有挑战性的,
08:16
like what does it mean, take the next right?
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比如：之后右转是代表什么意思？
08:19
Well, if you're coming up on a street,
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如果你来到一个街口，
08:21
the next right's probably the one after,
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下一个右转也许指的是再下一个右边，
08:23
and there are lots of issues,
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这是有非常多问题的，
08:24
and the student did a wonderful thesis,
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这个学生做了一个非常好的课题，
08:26
and the MIT patent office said "Don't patent it.
186
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然而 MIT 的专利处说：“不要申请这项专利。
08:31
It'll never be accepted.
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他永远不会通过。
08:33
The liabilities are too large.
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因为设计责任会很大。
08:35
There will be insurance issues.
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会有保险问题。
08:37
Don't patent it."
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不要申请专利。“
08:38
So we didn't,
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我们便没有申请，
08:40
but it shows you how people, again, at times,
192
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这再一次展示了人们
08:43
don't really look at what's happening.
193
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看不清眼前正在发生的事。
08:47
Some work, and I'll just go
through these very quickly,
through these very quickly,
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有不少事可以说，我在这里快速的过一下，
08:50
a lot of sensory stuff.
195
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有很多比较敏感的话题。
08:52
You might recognize a young Yo-Yo Ma
196
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你可能认出年轻的马友友（大提琴演奏家）
08:54
and tracking his body for playing
197
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并跟踪他身体
08:58
the cello or the hypercello.
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演奏提琴的动作。
09:01
These fellows literally walked
around like that at the time.
around like that at the time.
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那些人在那时候像是这样走路的。
09:05
It's now a little bit more discreet
200
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现在便变得有些
09:07
and more commonplace.
201
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松散和正常了。
09:09
And then there are at least three heroes
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现在我想想你们介绍
09:12
I want to quickly mention.
203
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三位英雄。
09:13
Marvin Minsky, who taught me a lot
204
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马文·明斯基，他教了我很多
09:15
about common sense,
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关于常识的知识，
09:17
and I will talk briefly about Muriel Cooper,
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我再来简单介绍一下穆里尔·库珀，
09:20
who was very important to Ricky Wurman
207
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她对瑞奇·吴曼和 TED 都很重要
09:23
and to TED, and in fact, when she got onstage,
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而且事实上当她上舞台时
09:26
she said, the first thing she said was,
209
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1947
她说的第一句话是
09:28
"I introduced Ricky to Nicky."
210
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2154
”我向尼基介绍瑞奇。“
09:30
And nobody calls me Nicky
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从未有人叫过我尼基，
09:32
and nobody calls Richard Ricky,
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也没有人把理查德叫做瑞奇，
09:34
so nobody knew who she was talking about.
213
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3402
所以人们都不知道她在说什么。
09:37
And then, of course, Seymour Papert,
214
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2397
然后，西摩·帕尔特
09:40
who is the person who said,
215
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1505
那个说过
09:41
"You can't think about thinking
216
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1415
“你不能去思考什么是思考，
09:43
unless you think about thinking about something."
217
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除非你想去思考某个事情。“的人。
09:45
And that's actually — you can unpack that later.
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事实上待会你就明白什么意思了。
09:51
It's a pretty profound statement.
219
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这是一个相当深奥的说法。
09:55
I'm showing some slides
220
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1740
我正在展示的是一些
09:57
that were from TED 2,
221
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2086
来自 TED 2 的 ppt，
09:59
a little silly as slides, perhaps.
222
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看起来也许有些傻。
10:02
Then I felt television really was about displays.
223
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那时我真的感觉电视就是关于屏幕。
10:08
Again, now we're past TED 1,
224
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现在是在 TED 1 之后，
10:11
but just around the time of TED 2,
225
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在 TED 2 发生前后，
10:14
and what I'd like to mention here is,
226
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我想要提到的是，
10:16
even though you could imagine
227
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2115
即使你可以想象
10:18
intelligence in the device,
228
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2054
设备里的智能，
10:20
I look today at some of the work
229
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1432
现在我看看
10:22
being done about the Internet of Things,
230
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互联网上的东西，
10:24
and I think it's kind of tragically pathetic,
231
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我觉得真的是非常悲剧，
10:27
because what has happened is people take
232
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2430
因为正在发生的是
10:29
the oven panel and put it on your cell phone,
233
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3498
人们将烤箱面板放到了手机上，
10:33
or the door key onto your cell phone,
234
621418
1789
或是将要是放到了手机上，
10:35
just taking it and bringing it to you,
235
623207
2173
直接把它带给你，
10:37
and in fact that's actually what you don't want.
236
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2721
但事实上那不是你们想要的。
10:40
You want to put a chicken in the oven,
237
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2058
当你想把一只鸡放在烤箱里时，
10:42
and the oven says, "Aha, it's a chicken,"
238
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2328
烤箱说：”啊哈，这是只鸡。“
10:44
and it cooks the chicken.
239
632487
1149
然后便开始烹饪。
10:45
"Oh, it's cooking the chicken for Nicholas,
240
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1766
”哦，他在为尼古拉斯烧鸡，
10:47
and he likes it this way and that way."
241
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1834
他喜欢这样那样的烹调方式。“
10:49
So the intelligence, instead of being in the device,
242
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3053
这样一来我们现在开始将智能，
10:52
we have started today
243
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1709
并非实体的存在物
10:53
to move it back onto the cell phone
244
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2112
移回到手机上
10:56
or closer to the user,
245
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2370
和使用者更近，
10:58
not a particularly enlightened view
246
646480
2188
但这并不是一个互联网内
11:00
of the Internet of Things.
247
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2741
非有启发性的东西。
11:03
Television, again, television what I said today,
248
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3464
电视，我今天所说的电视
11:06
that was back in 1990,
249
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2622
那是在1990年的时候，
11:09
and the television of tomorrow
250
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1470
而未来的电视
11:10
would look something like that.
251
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2323
可能会像是这样。
11:13
Again, people, but they laughed cynically,
252
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3544
然而那时人们讽刺的笑了
11:16
they didn't laugh with much appreciation.
253
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5251
不带任何的欣赏。
11:22
Telecommunications in the 1990s,
254
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2650
在 20 世纪 90 年代，
11:24
George Gilder decided that he would call this diagram
255
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5700
乔治 吉尔德决定叫这个示意图为
11:30
the Negroponte switch.
256
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2429
内格罗蓬特开关。
11:32
I'm probably much less famous than George,
257
680862
2006
也许我远没有乔治有名，
11:34
so when he called it the Negroponte switch, it stuck,
258
682868
3607
所以当他把这个叫做内格罗蓬特开关时，就没有什么变动了，
11:38
but the idea of things that came in the ground
259
686475
2665
但是这东西的主意
11:41
would go in the air and stuff in the air
260
689140
1715
在地上和空中
11:42
would go into the ground
261
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1459
漂浮不定
11:44
has played itself out.
262
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1885
已经将自己展示出来了。
11:46
That is the original slide from that year,
263
694199
4745
这是当年的原始PPT，
11:50
and it has worked in lockstep obedience.
264
698944
3375
而且一直都因循守旧地运行着。
11:54
We started Wired magazine.
265
702319
2167
我们发行了《千奇百怪》杂志。
11:56
Some people, I remember we shared
266
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3736
有些和我曾一起
12:00
the reception desk periodically,
267
708222
2722
在招待会上定期坐一桌的人
12:02
and some parent called up irate that his son
268
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4058
和一些家长风怒的表达他的儿子
12:07
had given up Sports Illustrated
269
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2229
已经不再订阅体育画报
12:09
to subscribe for Wired,
270
717231
1879
而改定了《千奇百怪》。
12:11
and he said, "Are you some
porno magazine or something?"
porno magazine or something?"
271
719110
3197
他还说：“你们这是色情书刊还是什么鬼玩意？“
12:14
and couldn't understand why his son
272
722307
2584
非常不理解为什么
12:16
would be interested in Wired, at any rate.
273
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3899
他的儿子会对《千奇百怪》感兴趣。
12:20
I will go through this a little quicker.
274
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2604
我会快一些的把这事描述一下。
12:23
This is my favorite, 1995,
275
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3499
这是我最喜欢的，在 1995 年，
12:26
back page of Newsweek magazine.
276
734893
3037
新闻周刊杂志的背面。
12:29
Okay. Read it. (Laughter)
277
737930
1969
好的。读一下它。（笑声）
12:31
["Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we'll soon buy books and newspapers straight over the Internet. Uh, sure."
—Clifford Stoll, Newsweek, 1995]
—Clifford Stoll, Newsweek, 1995]
278
739899
1901
MIT 媒体实验室的领导人尼古拉斯 内格罗蓬特预测：“人们很快就会在互联网上购买书籍和报纸了。好啊，可以啊 （胆子不小，你尽敢这样说）。”
12:33
You must admit that gives you,
279
741800
1645
你必须得承认这给了你，
12:35
at least it gives me pleasure
280
743445
2227
当别人说你比错误一的时候
12:37
when somebody says how dead wrong you are.
281
745672
3758
至少这给了我快感。
12:41
"Being Digital" came out.
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2146
“数字化”推出了。
12:43
For me, it gave me an opportunity
283
751576
2641
对于我来说，这给了我机会
12:46
to be more in the trade press
284
754217
2202
在印刷行业发展
12:48
and get this out to the public,
285
756419
3271
并将这带入社会，
12:51
and it also allowed us to build the new Media Lab,
286
759690
3015
同事还让我们建造了新的媒体实验室，
12:54
which if you haven't been to, visit,
287
762705
1933
如果你还没去过，你可以去参观一下，
12:56
because it's a beautiful piece of architecture
288
764638
3019
因为它除了是一个工作的好地方
12:59
aside from being a wonderful place to work.
289
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2825
还是一个非常美丽的建筑物。
13:02
So these are the things we were saying in those TEDs.
290
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2695
这些便是我们在之前的 TED 所讨论的。
13:05
[Today, multimedia is a desktop or living room experience, because the apparatus is so clunky. This will change dramatically with small, bright, thin, high-resolution displays. — 1995]
291
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【今天，多媒体是一个在桌面和起居室中的体验，因为那些设备非常粗笨。将来会被更加小而智能的而取代。】
13:06
We came to them.
292
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1492
我来到它们那里。
13:08
I looked forward to it every year.
293
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1992
我每年都看看它。
13:10
It was the party that Ricky Wurman never had
294
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3052
那是对瑞奇 沃尔曼一个从意义上来说
13:13
in the sense that he invited many of his old friends,
295
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2909
从未有过的聚会
13:16
including myself.
296
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1659
而他在聚会中邀请了很多他的老朋友，还包括我。
13:17
And then something for me changed
297
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2392
之后我
13:20
pretty profoundly.
298
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1469
发生了一个潜在的改变。
13:21
I became more involved with computers and learning
299
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3953
我和电脑的接触和学习更多了
13:25
and influenced by Seymour,
300
793662
2462
也被西摩深刻的影响，
13:28
but particularly looking at learning
301
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2615
但是主要专注于
13:30
as something that is best approximated
302
798739
3910
以电脑编程的方式
13:34
by computer programming.
303
802649
1754
去学习。
13:36
When you write a computer program,
304
804403
2014
当你编程时，
13:38
you've got to not just list things out
305
806417
2795
你不能只将东西列出来
13:41
and sort of take an algorithm
306
809212
1728
大概的去用一种算法
13:42
and translate it into a set of instructions,
307
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2876
或是仅仅将其翻译成一套教程，
13:45
but when there's a bug, and all programs have bugs,
308
813816
2683
但是当程序有漏洞时（所有的程序都有漏洞），
13:48
you've got to de-bug it.
309
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1709
你得去消除漏洞。
13:50
You've got to go in, change it,
310
818208
1990
你得进入程序中，改编，
13:52
and then re-execute,
311
820198
1622
并重新执行，
13:53
and you iterate,
312
821820
1804
然后你进行迭代
13:55
and that iteration is really
313
823624
2907
而且那个迭代的过程
13:58
a very, very good approximation of learning.
314
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2903
是一个非常好的类似学习。
14:01
So that led to my own work with Seymour
315
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3667
那也让我在像是柬埔寨的地方
14:05
in places like Cambodia
316
833101
2358
开始我与西摩的工作
14:07
and the starting of One Laptop per Child.
317
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2904
并启动了一个孩子一台笔记本电脑的项目。
14:10
Enough TED Talks on One Laptop per Child,
318
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2814
关于此项目的 TED 演讲有足够多，
14:13
so I'll go through it very fast,
319
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1761
我就快速地过一下，
14:14
but it did give us the chance
320
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3925
但是我们确实获得了
14:18
to do something at a relatively large scale
321
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3506
在一个较大的范围上
14:22
in the area of learning, development and computing.
322
850369
3993
为学习，发展和电脑计算做些贡献的机会。
14:26
Very few people know that One Laptop per Child
323
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2817
很少有人知道一个孩子一台笔记本电脑
14:29
was a $1 billion project,
324
857179
2635
是一个价值 10 亿美元的项目，
14:31
and it was, at least over the seven years I ran it,
325
859814
2647
至少有七年我都置身于该项目，
14:34
but even more important, the World Bank
326
862461
2146
但更重要的是，
14:36
contributed zero, USAID zero.
327
864607
3115
世界银行和 USAID 都作出零贡献。
14:39
It was mostly the countries
using their own treasuries,
using their own treasuries,
328
867722
4155
大多数都是国家使用自己国库资金
14:43
which is very interesting,
329
871877
1603
这是非常有趣的，
14:45
at least to me it was very interesting
330
873480
1356
至少对我未来要做的事
14:46
in terms of what I plan to do next.
331
874836
3144
来说非常有趣。
14:49
So these are the various places it happened.
332
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3025
这些是那些发生了这些事的地方。
14:53
I then tried an experiment,
333
881005
2902
我接着尝试了一个实验，
14:55
and the experiment happened in Ethiopia.
334
883907
4281
试验地点在埃塞俄比亚。
15:00
And here's the experiment.
335
888188
2642
这里边是这个实验。
15:02
The experiment is,
336
890830
1631
实验是这样的，
15:04
can learning happen where there are no schools.
337
892461
3780
没有学校的地方人们可以学习么。
15:08
And we dropped off tablets
338
896241
2530
我们便发放平板电脑
15:10
with no instructions
339
898771
2243
但不给出使用说明
15:13
and let the children figure it out.
340
901014
3273
让孩子们自己搞明白怎么用。
15:16
And in a short period of time,
341
904287
3647
在很短的一段时间内，
15:19
they not only
342
907934
2098
他们不仅知道如何开机，而且 5 五天内
15:22
turned them on and were using 50 apps per child
343
910032
3072
每个孩子至少
15:25
within five days,
344
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2102
使用了 50 个应用程，
15:27
they were singing "ABC" songs within two weeks,
345
915206
2934
在两周内他们便学会了唱 ”ABC“，
15:30
but they hacked Android within six months.
346
918140
3893
但是他们花了 6 个月破解了安卓系统。
15:34
And so that seemed sufficiently interesting.
347
922033
3518
这些事足够有趣。
15:37
This is perhaps the best picture I have.
348
925551
2559
这也许是我手头上最好的照片。
15:40
The kid on your right
349
928110
4151
你们右手的孩子
15:44
has sort of nominated himself as teacher.
350
932261
2475
把他自己任命为了老师。
15:46
Look at the kid on the left, and so on.
351
934736
2520
看左手边的孩子，等等。
15:49
There are no adults involved in this at all.
352
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3150
没有任何成年人的参与。
15:52
So I said, well can we do this
353
940406
1424
我问：“我们可以
15:53
at a larger scale?
354
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1597
大规模地进行这个实验么？”
15:55
And what is it that's missing?
355
943427
2481
但又缺少了什么呢？
15:57
The kids are giving a press conference at this point,
356
945908
2269
孩子们这个时候正在开发布会了，
16:00
and sort of writing in the dirt.
357
948177
2685
貌似在土中鞋子。
16:02
And the answer is, what is missing?
358
950862
3445
答案是：缺少了什么？
16:06
And I'm going to skip over my prediction, actually,
359
954307
2536
我要跳过我的预测，
16:08
because I'm running out of time,
360
956843
1528
因为我时间不够了，
16:10
and here's the question, is what's going to happen?
361
958371
3968
问题是：未来会发生什么呢?
16:14
I think the challenge
362
962339
1487
我认为未来的挑战是
16:15
is to connect the last billion people,
363
963826
2628
区连接剩下的 10 亿人，
16:18
and connecting the last billion
364
966454
2651
将剩下 10 亿连接起来
16:21
is very different than connecting the next billion,
365
969105
3397
和连接下 10 亿个是不一样的，
16:24
and the reason it's different
366
972502
1394
原因是不同的
16:25
is that the next billion
367
973896
1864
下个 10 亿
16:27
are sort of low-hanging fruit,
368
975760
1950
像是触手可及的水果，
16:29
but the last billion are rural.
369
977710
3367
但是那剩下的 10 亿则是在乡村。
16:33
Being rural and being poor
370
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3752
乡村和平穷
16:36
are very different.
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是非常不同的。
16:37
Poverty tends to be created by our society,
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平穷是由社会所创造出的，
16:41
and the people in that community are not poor
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但是同样的方式下
16:47
in the same way at all.
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那个社区里的人们是一点都不穷的。
16:48
They may be primitive,
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他们也许很原始，
16:50
but the way to approach it and to connect them,
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但是靠近和连接它们的方式
16:54
the history of One Laptop per Child,
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一个孩子一台笔记本电脑的项目的历史，
16:56
and the experiment in Ethiopia,
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以及在埃塞俄比亚的实验，
17:00
lead me to believe that we can in fact
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让我相信
17:03
do this in a very short period of time.
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我们可以在很短的时间内实现。
17:06
And so my plan,
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所以我的计划
17:08
and unfortunately I haven't been able
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很不幸，此时此刻我不能
17:10
to get my partners at this point
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找我的伙伴
17:13
to let me announce them,
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去让我在这里介绍他们，
17:14
but is to do this with a stationary satellite.
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但是将用一个同步卫星实现这件事。
17:19
There are many reasons
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这是有很多原因的，
17:22
that stationary satellites aren't the best things,
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同步卫星不是最佳的选择，
17:26
but there are a lot of reasons why they are,
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但是有很多原因可以解释它们为什么最优，
17:29
and for two billion dollars,
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而且 20 亿美元
17:32
you can connect a lot more than 100 million people,
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我们可以连接远超过 1 亿人，
17:36
but the reason I picked two,
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第二个理由
17:39
and I will leave this as my last slide,
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我把它留到最后再说，
17:42
is two billion dollars
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20 亿美元
17:44
is what we were spending
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是我们在阿富汗
17:47
in Afghanistan
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每周耗费的
17:49
every week.
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金额。
17:51
So surely if we can connect
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所以如果我们可以
17:54
Africa and the last billion people
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用那样的开销
17:57
for numbers like that,
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将非洲和那剩下的 10 亿人连接起来
17:58
we should be doing it.
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我们应该已经在做这件事情了。
18:00
Thank you very much.
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非常好感谢。
18:02
(Applause)
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（掌声）
18:05
Chris Anderson: Stay up there. Stay up there.
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克里斯·安德森：先别走，等一会。
18:10
NN: You're going to give me extra time?
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尼葛洛庞帝：你要给我读一点时间么？
18:12
CA: No. That was wickedly clever, wickedly clever.
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克里斯·安德森：那真是说的太好了，太好了。
18:14
You gamed it beautifully.
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你的挑战的非常漂亮。
18:16
Nicholas, what is your prediction?
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尼葛洛庞帝，你对未来的预测是什么？
18:19
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
18:21
NN: Thank you for asking.
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尼葛洛庞帝：谢谢你问我。
18:23
I'll tell you what my prediction is,
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我马上告诉你我的预测是什么，
18:26
and my prediction, and this is a prediction,
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这是我的预测
18:29
because it'll be 30 years. I won't be here.
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因为这是未来 30 年的预测，那时我不会在这里了。
18:31
But one of the things about learning how to read,
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但是有一点关于学习如何阅读
18:36
we have been doing a lot of consuming
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我们一直都在用双眼
18:39
of information going through our eyes,
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大量社区信息，
18:41
and so that may be a very inefficient channel.
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而且那是个非常低效的方法。
18:44
So my prediction is that we are
going to ingest information
going to ingest information
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所以我的预测是我们将会摄取信息。
18:49
You're going to swallow a pill and know English.
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你们会吃下一个药丸便知道如何说英语。
18:52
You're going to swallow a
pill and know Shakespeare.
pill and know Shakespeare.
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你将会吃下一个药丸便通晓莎士比亚。
18:55
And the way to do it is through the bloodstream.
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而实现它的方法是用过血流。
18:58
So once it's in your bloodstream,
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一旦它进入到你的血液中，
19:00
it basically goes through it and gets into the brain,
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它基本上就会到达大脑，
19:02
and when it knows that it's in the brain
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当它知道他到达了大脑
19:04
in the different pieces,
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在不同的地方，
19:05
it deposits it in the right places.
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它便在正确的地方注入。
19:08
So it's ingesting.
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所以这是摄取。
19:09
CA: Have you been hanging out
with Ray Kurzweil by any chance?
with Ray Kurzweil by any chance?
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克里斯·安德森：你有和雷库兹威尔聊过么？
19:12
NN: No, but I've been hanging
around with Ed Boyden
around with Ed Boyden
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尼葛洛庞帝：没有，但是我经常和埃德宝鼎聊天
19:15
and hanging around with one of the speakers
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还有这里的一位演讲者之一
19:17
who is here, Hugh Herr,
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休·赫尔，
19:19
and there are a number of people.
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有很多人。
19:21
This isn't quite as far-fetched,
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对于未来的 30 年，
19:22
so 30 years from now.
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这不是很牵强。
19:25
CA: We will check it out.
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克里斯·安德森：我们会亲眼鉴识的。
19:27
We're going to be back and we're going
to play this clip 30 years from now,
to play this clip 30 years from now,
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我们将会倒退，30 年后再放出这个视频
19:29
and then all eat the red pill.
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你们所有都吃着红色药丸。
19:32
Well thank you for that.
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好的谢谢你的好意。
19:34
Nicholas Negroponte.
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尼葛洛庞帝
19:36
NN: Thank you.
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谢谢
19:37
(Applause)
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(掌声)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Nicholas Negroponte - Tech visionaryThe founder of the MIT Media Lab, Nicholas Negroponte pushed the edge of the information revolution as an inventor, thinker and angel investor. He's the driving force behind One Laptop per Child, building computers for children in the developing world.
Why you should listen
A pioneer in the field of computer-aided design, Negroponte founded (and was the first director of) MIT's Media Lab, which helped drive the multimedia revolution and now houses more than 500 researchers and staff across a broad range of disciplines. An original investor in Wired (and the magazine's "patron saint"), for five years he penned a column exploring the frontiers of technology -- ideas that he expanded into his 1995 best-selling book Being Digital. An angel investor extraordinaire, he's funded more than 40 startups, and served on the boards of companies such as Motorola and Ambient Devices.
But his latest effort, the One Laptop per Child project, may prove his most ambitious. The organization is designing, manufacturing and distributing low-cost, wireless Internet-enabled computers costing roughly $100 and aimed at children. Negroponte hopes to put millions of these devices in the hands of children in the developing world.
Nicholas Negroponte | Speaker | TED.com