TED2008
Irwin Redlener: How to survive a nuclear attack
伊文·雷德莱纳: 如何在核袭击中生存
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核恐怖已经随着冷战的结束而减弱，但是灾难医学专家伊文·雷德莱纳提醒我们这个威胁依然存在。他回顾了历史上一些荒谬的关于应对核袭击的对策，并给出了一些切实可行的在核袭击中生存的建议。
Irwin Redlener - Physician, disaster-preparedness activist
Dr. Irwin Redlener spends his days imagining the worst: He studies how humanity might survive natural or human-made disasters of unthinkable severity. He's been an outspoken critic of half-formed government recovery plans (especially after Katrina). Full bio
Dr. Irwin Redlener spends his days imagining the worst: He studies how humanity might survive natural or human-made disasters of unthinkable severity. He's been an outspoken critic of half-formed government recovery plans (especially after Katrina). Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So, a big question that we're facing now
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我们现在面临一个大问题
00:15
and have been for quite a number of years now:
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这个问题已经持续了很多年：
00:18
are we at risk of a nuclear attack?
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我们是否处于遭受核袭击的危险之中呢？
00:21
Now, there's a bigger question
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现在，有一个更大的问题
00:23
that's probably actually more important than that,
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这个问题可能比刚刚提到的那个问题更重要
00:26
is the notion of permanently eliminating
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那就是，我们能不能永久地消除
00:30
the possibility of a nuclear attack,
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核袭击的可能性
00:32
eliminating the threat altogether.
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能不能将这种威胁完全消除
00:34
And I would like to make a case to you that
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我想给大家举个例子
00:37
over the years since we first developed atomic weaponry,
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从核武器被发明以来的这些年间
00:40
until this very moment,
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直到此时此刻
00:42
we've actually lived in a dangerous nuclear world
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我们其实一直生活在一个危险的核世界
00:45
that's characterized by two phases,
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这可以分为两个阶段
00:48
which I'm going to go through with you right now.
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我现在和大家一起来回顾一下
00:51
First of all, we started off the nuclear age in 1945.
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首先，我们从1945年开始正式进入核时代
00:55
The United States had developed a couple of atomic weapons
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美国通过曼哈顿计划
00:57
through the Manhattan Project,
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成功研制出了核武器
00:59
and the idea was very straightforward:
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目的非常明确
01:01
we would use the power of the atom
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我们将动用核武器的力量
01:03
to end the atrocities and the horror
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来结束无休止的二战
01:05
of this unending World War II
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所带来的残暴与恐惧
01:07
that we'd been involved in in Europe and in the Pacific.
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我们当时被卷入了欧洲和太平洋战场
01:10
And in 1945,
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在1945年
01:13
we were the only nuclear power.
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我们是唯一的有核国家
01:15
We had a few nuclear weapons,
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我们有一定数量的核武器
01:17
two of which we dropped on Japan, in Hiroshima,
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其中一枚投在了日本广岛市
01:19
a few days later in Nagasaki, in August 1945,
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另一枚几天之后扔在了长崎，这些发生在1945年8月
01:22
killing about 250,000 people between those two.
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这两枚原子弹一共造成25万人死亡
01:25
And for a few years,
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之后的一些年间
01:27
we were the only nuclear power on Earth.
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我们一直是地球上唯一的有核国家
01:30
But by 1949, the Soviet Union had decided
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但是1949年，苏联认为
01:34
it was unacceptable to have us as the only nuclear power,
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只有美国拥有核武器是一件无法接受的事情
01:37
and they began to match what the United States had developed.
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他们开始和美国一样发展核武器
01:41
And from 1949 to 1985
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从1949年到1985年
01:44
was an extraordinary time
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这是一个特殊时期
01:47
of a buildup of a nuclear arsenal
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一个核武器逐步发展的时期
01:50
that no one could possibly have imagined
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如果是在40年代
01:52
back in the 1940s.
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没有人可能会想到
01:54
So by 1985 -- each of those red bombs up here
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到1985年的时候，地图上每一个红色炸弹标志
01:57
is equivalent of a thousands warheads --
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都代表着1000枚核弹头
02:00
the world had
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整个世界
02:02
65,000 nuclear warheads,
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一共有65000枚核弹头
02:05
and seven members of something
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有7个国家先后拥有了核武器
02:07
that came to be known as the "nuclear club."
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成为了一个叫做“核俱乐部”组织的成员
02:10
And it was an extraordinary time,
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这是一个特殊时期
02:12
and I am going to go through some of the mentality
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我一会儿将讨论一下
02:14
that we -- that Americans and the rest of the world were experiencing.
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美国人以及其他国家的人对此的思考
02:17
But I want to just point out to you that 95 percent
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但我想先向大家指出
02:20
of the nuclear weapons at any particular time
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自1985年以来的任何一个时间点
02:23
since 1985 -- going forward, of course --
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全世界百分之九十五的
02:25
were part of the arsenals
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核武器被储存在
02:27
of the United States and the Soviet Union.
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美国和苏联的军火库中
02:30
After 1985, and before the break up of the Soviet Union,
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从1985年到苏联解体的这段时间
02:33
we began to disarm
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我们在核武器这方面
02:35
from a nuclear point of view.
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开始削减军备
02:37
We began to counter-proliferate,
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我们开始反核扩散
02:39
and we dropped the number of nuclear warheads in the world
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我们全世界的核弹头数量减少到了
02:41
to about a total of 21,000.
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大约21000枚
02:44
It's a very difficult number to deal with,
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这是一个非常难理解的数目
02:45
because what we've done is
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因为我们所做的
02:47
we've quote unquote "decommissioned" some of the warheads.
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只是使一些核弹头“退役”了
02:50
They're still probably usable. They could be "re-commissioned,"
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它们可能还可以使用，并且可以“再次服役"
02:52
but the way they count things, which is very complicated,
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但是军方用一种很复杂的技术方法统计得出结论：
02:55
we think we have about a third
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我们以为全世界只留有相比以前
02:57
of the nuclear weapons we had before.
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三分之一的核武器
02:59
But we also, in that period of time,
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但与此同时，我们的
03:01
added two more members to the nuclear club:
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”核俱乐部“又新增了两个成员
03:03
Pakistan and North Korea.
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巴基斯坦和北朝鲜
03:06
So we stand today with a still fully armed nuclear arsenal
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因此我们今天仍处于一个
03:10
among many countries around the world,
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很多国家都拥有核武器的时期
03:12
but a very different set of circumstances.
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但情况却和以前非常不同
03:14
So I'm going to talk about
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我接下来会分两个时期讨论
03:17
a nuclear threat story in two chapters.
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关于核威胁的历史
03:19
Chapter one is 1949 to 1991,
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第一个时期从1949年到
03:22
when the Soviet Union broke up,
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1991年苏联解体
03:24
and what we were dealing with, at that point and through those years,
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我们要关注的是在这些年间
03:27
was a superpowers' nuclear arms race.
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有一场超级大国之间的核军备竞赛
03:30
It was characterized by
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这场核军备竞赛最主要的特点就是
03:32
a nation-versus-nation,
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国家之间的对立导致
03:34
very fragile standoff.
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核战争一触即发
03:36
And basically,
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基本上
03:38
we lived for all those years,
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可以毫不夸张地说
03:40
and some might argue that we still do,
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我们那些年就像走在
03:42
in a situation of
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世界末日的悬崖边
03:44
being on the brink, literally,
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有些人认为
03:46
of an apocalyptic, planetary calamity.
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直至今日情况仍然如此
03:50
It's incredible that we actually lived through all that.
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我们能活到现在简直是难以置信
03:53
We were totally dependent during those years
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这些年我们（之所以能活下来）完全是依赖于
03:55
on this amazing acronym, which is MAD.
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这个神奇的叫做MAD的东西
03:58
It stands for mutually assured destruction.
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它是“确保相互毁灭”的缩写
04:01
So it meant
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它的意思是，如果...
04:03
if you attacked us, we would attack you
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如果你袭击我，我也会袭击你
04:05
virtually simultaneously,
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双方几乎同时发动袭击
04:07
and the end result would be a destruction
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这样做的结果就是
04:09
of your country and mine.
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你我两国同时被摧毁
04:11
So the threat of my own destruction
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因此由于担心我自己被毁灭
04:13
kept me from launching
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我不会发射（核武器）
04:15
a nuclear attack on you. That's the way we lived.
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来对你进行核打击。这就是我们为什么能活下来
04:19
And the danger of that, of course, is that
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不过这么做的危险就是
04:21
a misreading of a radar screen
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雷达的一次误报
04:24
could actually cause a counter-launch,
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就可能引发一次反击
04:26
even though the first country had not actually launched anything.
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即使另一个国家事实上根本没有发射任何东西
04:29
During this chapter one,
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在这个时期
04:31
there was a high level of public awareness
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民众很清楚地意识到
04:33
about the potential of nuclear catastrophe,
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确实可能发生潜在的核灾难
04:36
and an indelible image was implanted
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一个难以抹掉的画面出现在
04:38
in our collective minds
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每个人的脑海中
04:40
that, in fact, a nuclear holocaust
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那就是一次核灾难
04:42
would be absolutely globally destructive
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将带来全球性的毁灭
04:45
and could, in some ways, mean the end of civilization as we know it.
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而且，从某个角度来说，这也意味着人类文明将走到尽头
04:48
So this was chapter one.
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这就是第一个时期
04:51
Now the odd thing is that even though
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不过奇怪的是，即使
04:53
we knew that there would be
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我们知道可能会发生
04:55
that kind of civilization obliteration,
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这种文明灭绝
04:58
we engaged in America in a series --
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我们美国人正忙于一系列－
05:00
and in fact, in the Soviet Union --
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事实上苏联也一样－
05:02
in a series of response planning.
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一系列应对措施
05:04
It was absolutely incredible.
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这简直让人难以置信
05:06
So premise one is we'd be destroying the world,
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一方面是我们随时都可能毁灭世界
05:08
and then premise two is, why don't we get prepared for it?
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另一方面我们却在考虑如何为此做好准备？
05:11
So what
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所以，我们－
05:13
we offered ourselves
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我们提出了
05:15
was a collection of things. I'm just going to go skim through a few things,
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一堆方案。我将只回顾其中的几个
05:17
just to jog your memories.
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只是为了唤起你们的回忆
05:19
If you're born after 1950, this is just --
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如果你是1950年之后出生的，你可以把这些
05:21
consider this entertainment, otherwise it's memory lane.
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当作娱乐，或者是怀旧
05:24
This was Bert the Turtle. (Video)
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这是那只叫贝尔的乌龟
05:42
This was basically an attempt
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这个算是尝试着
05:44
to teach our schoolchildren
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教正在上学的孩子们
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that if we did get engaged
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如果我们真的被卷入
05:48
in a nuclear confrontation and atomic war,
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一次核冲突或者核战争
05:51
then we wanted our school children
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我们希望我们的孩子们
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to kind of basically duck and cover.
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迅速躲到桌子下面
05:55
That was the principle. You --
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这就是基本的原则
05:57
there would be a nuclear conflagration
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核突击袭来时
05:59
about to hit us, and if you get under your desk,
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如果你趴在桌子底下
06:01
things would be OK.
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一切就没事了
06:03
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
06:05
I didn't do all that well
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我在医学院的时候
06:07
in psychiatry in medical school, but I was interested,
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“精神病学”学得并不是很好，但是我很感兴趣
06:09
and I think this was seriously delusional.
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而我真的认为这样的措施完全是患有妄想症的表现
06:12
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
06:14
Secondly, we told people
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另外，我们告诉人们
06:16
to go down in their basements
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躲到地下室去
06:18
and build a fallout shelter.
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把那里作为一个放射性微粒掩蔽所
06:20
Maybe it would be a study when we weren't having an atomic war,
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也许我们可以好好研究研究，如果没有发生核战争
06:23
or you could use it as a TV room, or, as many teenagers found out,
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我们也许可以把那里当作看电视的房间，又或者，很多青少年会发现
06:26
a very, very safe place for a little privacy with your girlfriend.
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这一个绝佳的和女朋友呆在一起的私密环境
06:29
And actually -- so there are multiple uses of the bomb shelters.
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事实上，这个防空洞可以又很多用处
06:32
Or you could buy a prefabricated bomb shelter
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或者你可以买一个组装式的防空洞
06:35
that you could simply bury in the ground.
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你需要的只是把它埋到地里
06:37
Now, the bomb shelters at that point --
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说到防空洞
06:39
let's say you bought a prefab one -- it would be a few hundred dollars,
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假如你买了一个组装式的，这可能要花几百美元
06:41
maybe up to 500, if you got a fancy one.
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如果你买一个好点儿的可能要花掉500美元
06:43
Yet, what percentage of Americans
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但是你们认为有百分之多少的美国人
06:45
do you think ever had a bomb shelter in their house?
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曾经在他们的房子下面建有一个防空洞呢？
06:47
What percentage lived in a house with a bomb shelter?
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有百分之多少的人住在有防空洞的房子里呢？
06:50
Less than two percent. About 1.4 percent
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少于总人口百分之二，只有大概百分之一点四的人
06:53
of the population, as far as anyone knows,
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就我们目前所知
06:55
did anything,
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曾采取过措施
06:57
either making a space in their basement
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不管是腾出地下室作为避难所也好
06:59
or actually building a bomb shelter.
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或者是真的建了一个防空洞也好
07:02
Many buildings, public buildings, around the country --
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很多建筑－全国各地的公共建筑
07:04
this is New York City -- had these little civil defense signs,
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这是在纽约－有这样的民防系统标志
07:07
and the idea was that you would
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这个想法是说如果大家
07:09
run into one of these shelters and be safe
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跑到这些避难所里就会安全
07:11
from the nuclear weaponry.
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不会受到核武器的威胁
07:13
And one of the greatest governmental delusions
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政府有史以来
07:16
of all time was something that happened
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最大的幻想之一
07:18
in the early days of
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是由早期的
07:20
the Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA, as we now know,
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联邦紧急情况管理署（FEMA）提出的
07:23
and are well aware of their behaviors from Katrina.
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我们在卡特里娜飓风的时候已经领教过FEMA的本事了
07:26
Here is their first big public
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这就是第一次
07:29
announcement.
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大范围的公告
07:31
They would propose --
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政府提出
07:33
actually there were about six volumes written on this --
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事实上他们给出了一个长达六本书的预案
07:35
a crisis relocation plan
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一个应急转移计划
07:37
that was dependent upon
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这个预案的前提是
07:39
the United States having three to four days warning
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美国能够提前三到四天得知
07:42
that the Soviets were going to attack us.
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苏联将要对我们发动袭击
07:44
So the goal was to evacuate the target cities.
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预案的目标是从这些可能遭到袭击的城市中撤离
07:47
We would move people out of the target cities
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将这些城市的居民转移出来
07:49
into the countryside.
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转移到乡村
07:51
And I'm telling you, I actually testified at the Senate
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我可以告诉大家，我曾经在参议院作证
07:54
about the absolute ludicrous idea
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对于这个荒谬至极的想法
07:57
that we would actually evacuate,
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如果我们真的有能力疏散群众
07:58
and actually have three or four days' warning.
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并且可以提前三到四天预警
08:00
It was just completely off the wall.
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这也太扯了吧
08:02
Turns out that they had another idea
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其实政府有另一个目的
08:05
behind it, even though this was --
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虽然对公众说
08:07
they were telling the public it was to save us.
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这是为了保护大家
08:09
The idea was that we would force the Soviets
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其实真正的目的是逼迫苏联
08:11
to re-target their nuclear weapons -- very expensive --
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重新设定核袭击的目标－这是一笔非常大的开销－
08:14
and potentially double their arsenal,
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甚至逼迫他们将核武器数量提升一倍
08:16
to not only take out the original site,
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从而（使核武器的攻击范围）不仅覆盖以前就覆盖到的地方
08:18
but take out sites where people were going.
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还覆盖到那些人们前往避难的地方
08:21
This was what apparently, as it turns out, was behind all this.
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这显然就是这个计划背后的目的
08:24
It was just really, really frightening.
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这实在是太可怕了
08:27
The main point here is we were dealing with
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我主要想说明的一点是：我们一直都在做一些
08:29
a complete disconnect from reality.
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和现实情况不相关的事情
08:32
The civil defense programs were disconnected
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民防系统和一场全面爆发的核战争
08:35
from the reality of what we'd see in all-out nuclear war.
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完全不相符合
08:37
So organizations like Physicians for Social Responsibility,
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因此，一些组织，比如“社会责任医师组织”（PSR）
08:41
around 1979, started saying this a lot publicly.
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在1979年左右，开始向公众进行宣传
08:44
They would do a bombing run. They'd go to your city,
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他们会做轰炸演习，比如来到你的城市，
08:47
and they'd say, "Here's a map of your city.
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给你一张城市的地图，
08:49
Here's what's going to happen if we get a nuclear hit."
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如果我们被核弹袭击了这里都会发生什么”
08:52
So no possibility of medical response to,
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告诉你：如果真的发生一场全面的核战争
08:54
or meaningful preparedness for
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医疗救援将根本不可能实现
08:56
all-out nuclear war.
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而且也无法实现进行有效的准备
08:58
So we had to prevent nuclear war
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所以我们必须避免发生核战争
09:00
if we expected to survive.
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如果我们想活命的话
09:02
This disconnect was never actually resolved.
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这个方案与现实脱节的问题一直没有得到根本解决
09:05
And what happened was --
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而现实是
09:07
when we get in to chapter two
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当我们进入1945年开始的
09:09
of the nuclear threat era,
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核威胁时期的
09:12
which started back in 1945.
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第二阶段
09:14
Chapter two starts in 1991.
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第二个阶段是从1991年开始的
09:16
When the Soviet Union broke up,
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当苏联解体之后
09:18
we effectively lost that adversary
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美国实际上上失去了竞争对手
09:20
as a potential attacker of the United States, for the most part.
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这个长久以来潜在的袭击者基本不复存在了
09:23
It's not completely gone. I'm going to come back to that.
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但苏联的威胁也不是完全消失了，我一会儿会再提到这一点
09:25
But from 1991
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从1991年开始
09:27
through the present time,
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直到现在
09:29
emphasized by the attacks of 2001,
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尤其是2001年的”9.11“事件说明
09:31
the idea of an all-out nuclear war
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全面爆发的核战争的可能性
09:34
has diminished and the idea of a single event,
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已经逐渐减小，
09:37
act of nuclear terrorism
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取而代之的
09:39
is what we have instead.
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是单独的核恐怖袭击活动
09:41
Although the scenario has changed
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情况虽然和以前大不一样
09:44
very considerably, the fact is
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但事实是
09:46
that we haven't changed our mental image
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我们头脑里对于核战争的理解
09:48
of what a nuclear war means.
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并未改变
09:50
So I'm going to tell you what the implications of that are in just a second.
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我一会儿会说明这意味着什么
09:53
So, what is a nuclear terror threat?
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那么，什么是核恐怖袭击呢？
09:55
And there's four key ingredients to describing that.
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它有四个关键组成部分
09:58
First thing is that the global nuclear weapons,
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第一个是全球范围内核武器
10:01
in the stockpiles that I showed you in those original maps,
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就是我之前给大家看的那张地图所显示的核武器储备
10:03
happen to be not uniformly secure.
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其实并不是全部都处于安全状态
10:06
And it's particularly not secure
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尤其是那些前苏联所拥有的核武器
10:08
in the former Soviet Union, now in Russia.
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现在这些核武器在俄罗斯手中
10:10
There are many, many sites where warheads are stored
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这些核弹头储存在很多地方
10:13
and, in fact, lots of sites where fissionable materials,
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可事实上，这其中又很多地方对于储存
10:16
like highly enriched uranium and plutonium,
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如高浓缩铀和钚这样的裂变物质而言
10:19
are absolutely not safe.
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并不安全
10:21
They're available to be bought, stolen, whatever.
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这些核弹头可能被贩卖或是被偷窃
10:24
They're acquirable, let me put it that way.
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换句话说，它们可以被其他人得到
10:27
From 1993 through 2006,
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从1993年到2006年
10:30
the International Atomic Energy Agency
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国际原子能机构
10:32
documented 175 cases of nuclear theft,
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记录在案的核失窃案件就有175起
10:35
18 of which involved highly enriched uranium or plutonium,
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其中18起和高浓缩铀和钚有关
10:39
the key ingredients to make a nuclear weapon.
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这些是制造核武器的关键原料
10:43
The global stockpile of highly enriched uranium
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全球的高浓缩铀储备
10:46
is about 1,300, at the low end,
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大约为1300吨
10:48
to about 2,100 metric tons.
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到2100吨之间
10:51
More than 100 megatons of this
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其中至少有100吨
10:53
is stored in particularly insecure
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储存在非常不安全的
10:56
Russian facilities.
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俄罗斯的储备设施中
10:59
How much of that do you think it would take
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大家觉得造一个一万吨级当量的核弹
11:01
to actually build a 10-kiloton bomb?
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大约需要多少高浓缩铀呢？
11:03
Well, you need about 75 pounds of it.
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你需要大约75磅高浓缩铀
11:07
So, what I'd like to show you
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所以，我想给大家展示一下
11:10
is
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那就是
11:12
what it would take to hold 75 pounds
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75磅高浓缩铀
11:15
of highly enriched uranium.
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大约是多少呢？
11:18
This is not a product placement. It's just --
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我这可不是在做软广告。这只是...
11:20
in fact, if I was Coca Cola, I'd be pretty distressed about this --
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事实上，如果我是可口可乐公司，我一定为此非常郁闷
11:22
(Laughter)
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笑声
11:25
-- but
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但是
11:27
basically, this is it.
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基本上，就是这么多
11:30
This is what you would need to steal or buy
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你只要从那100吨没有被安全储存的原料中
11:33
out of that 100-metric-ton stockpile
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偷取或者购买这么多就够了
11:35
that's relatively insecure
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储存设施偷取的高浓缩铀总量
11:37
to create the type of bomb
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从而制造出一个核弹
11:39
that was used in Hiroshima.
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威力相当于在广岛爆炸的那枚核弹
11:41
Now you might want to look at plutonium
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现在你们可能想看看如果是钚
11:43
as another fissionable material that you might use in a bomb.
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另一种可用于制造核弹的裂变物质
11:46
That -- you'd need 10 to 13 pounds of plutonium.
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你需要10到13磅钚
11:50
Now, plutonium, 10 to 13 pounds:
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钚，10到13磅
11:53
this. This is enough plutonium
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这是这么多，这些钚足以
11:56
to create a Nagasaki-size atomic weapon.
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制造一个威力相当于在长崎爆炸的那枚原子弹
12:01
Now this situation, already I --
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对于这个情况
12:03
you know, I don't really like thinking about this,
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你们知道，我并不愿意去想这个问题
12:06
although somehow I got myself a job
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虽然我阴差阳错地得到了一份工作
12:08
where I have to think about it. So
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使我不得不去想
12:10
the point is that we're very, very insecure
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重点是，我们发展这些裂变物质是
12:13
in terms of developing this material.
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非常非常不安全的
12:16
The second thing is, what about the know-how?
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第二个组成部分是，制造技术
12:18
And there's a lot of controversy about
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有很多关于恐怖组织
12:20
whether terror organizations have the know-how
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是否真的掌握了
12:23
to actually make a nuclear weapon.
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核武器制造技术的争论
12:26
Well, there's a lot of know-how out there.
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好吧，其实到处都能找到制造技术
12:28
There's an unbelievable amount of know-how out there.
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而且关于这些制造技术的资料多得令人难以置信
12:31
There's detailed information on how to assemble
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这其中有如何将各个部件组装起来
12:33
a nuclear weapon from parts.
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成为一个核武器的详细信息
12:36
There's books about how to build a nuclear bomb.
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有教你如何制造核弹的书籍
12:39
There are plans for how to create a terror farm
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甚至还有建造一个“恐怖农场”所需的详细计划
12:42
where you could actually manufacture and develop
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在那儿你可以加工制造
12:44
all the components and assemble it.
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所有的部件并进行组装
12:47
All of this information is relatively available.
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所有这些信息都是相对而言容易找到的
12:50
If you have an undergraduate degree in physics,
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只要你有一个物理学本科学历
12:52
I would suggest --
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我猜-
12:54
although I don't, so maybe it's not even true --
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虽然我没有...所以我说也不一定对－
12:56
but something close to that would allow you,
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不过我想有一定物理水平的人
12:58
with the information that's currently available,
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在这些可获得的信息帮助下
13:00
to actually build a nuclear weapon.
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事实上是可以制造出核武器的
13:04
The third element of the nuclear terror threat
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第三个核恐怖袭击的要素是
13:08
is that, who would actually do such a thing?
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谁可能会做出这样的事情？
13:11
Well, what we're seeing now is a level of terrorism
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我们现在面对的是恐怖主义已经进入一个新的阶段
13:14
that involves individuals who are highly organized.
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他们有严密的组织
13:17
They are very dedicated and committed.
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他们极具献身精神并且异常忠诚
13:19
They are stateless.
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他们没有国籍
13:21
Somebody once said, Al Qaeda
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有人曾说，“基地”组织
13:23
does not have a return address,
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并没有一个“回信”地址
13:25
so if they attack us with a nuclear weapon,
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那么如果他们向我们发射核武器
13:27
what's the response, and to whom is the response?
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我们怎么反击？反击谁？
13:30
And they're retaliation-proof.
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他们不怕报复
13:32
Since there is no real retribution possible
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因为要对他们进行有效的惩罚
13:35
that would make any difference,
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事实上是非常困难的
13:37
since there are people willing to actually give up their lives
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由于有人愿意牺牲自己
13:40
in order to do a lot of damage to us,
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去摧毁别人
13:42
it becomes apparent
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情况变得显而易见
13:44
that the whole notion
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“确保相互毁灭”这个概念
13:46
of this mutually assured destruction would not work.
323
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将不再适用
13:48
Here is Sulaiman Abu Ghaith,
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这是苏莱曼·阿布·吉斯
13:50
and Sulaiman was a key lieutenant of Osama Bin Laden.
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苏莱曼是乌萨马·本·拉登的左膀右臂
13:53
He wrote many, many times statements to this effect:
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他发表过很多言论说：
13:55
"we have the right to kill four million Americans,
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”我们有权利杀死四百万美国人，
13:58
two million of whom should be children."
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其中两百万是儿童。”
14:00
And we don't have to go overseas
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我们不用出国门都能找到
14:02
to find people willing to do harm, for whatever their reasons.
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愿意发动袭击的人，不管是他们这么做的目的是什么
14:04
McVeigh and Nichols, and the Oklahoma City attack
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麦克威和尼克斯，俄克拉荷马城恐怖袭击
14:07
in the 1990s
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发生在90年代
14:09
was a good example of homegrown terrorists.
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这是一个很好的关于在美国长大的恐怖分子的例子
14:11
What if they had gotten their hands on a nuclear weapon?
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如果他们手中有核武器会发生什么？
14:13
The fourth element
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第四个要素
14:15
is that the high-value U.S. targets
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那就是袭击对美国而言重要的目标
14:17
are accessible, soft and plentiful.
337
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这些目标不仅可以靠近，而且脆弱，数量众多
14:20
This would be a talk for another day, but the level of the preparedness
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这可以作为另外一个演讲来讨论，但只在如何应对这个层面上来说
14:22
that the United States has achieved
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美国在2001年“9/11”之后
14:24
since 9/11 of '01
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所做的努力
14:26
is unbelievably inadequate.
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简直是难以置信的不足
14:28
What you saw after Katrina
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我们所看到的在“卡特里娜”飓风过后的情况
14:30
is a very good indicator
343
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就能很好地说明
14:32
of how little prepared the United States is
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美国的准备是何等地不充分
14:35
for any kind of major attack.
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在面临任何大规模地袭击的时候
14:37
Seven million ship cargo containers
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每年有七百万集装箱货船
14:39
come into the United States every year.
347
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驶入美国
14:41
Five to seven percent only are inspected --
348
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其中只有百分之五到七接受了检查－
14:44
five to seven percent.
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百分之五到七
14:47
This is Alexander Lebed,
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这是亚历山大·列别德
14:50
who was a general that worked with Yeltsin,
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他是和叶利钦时代的将军
14:52
who talked about, and presented to Congress,
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他向国会介绍并展示了
14:55
this idea that the Russians had developed --
353
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俄罗斯设计的一种方案
14:58
these suitcase bombs. They were very low yield --
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这些手提箱炸弹似乎并不厉害
15:00
0.1 to one kiloton,
355
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每个只有0.1到1千吨当量
15:03
Hiroshima was around 13 kilotons --
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在广岛爆炸的那枚可是一万三千吨当量的
15:05
but enough to do an unbelievable amount of damage.
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但它们还是足以造成难以想象的破坏
15:08
And Lebed came to the United States
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列别德曾来到美国
15:10
and told us that many, many --
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告诉我们有很多很多的－
15:13
more than 80 of the suitcase bombs
360
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超过80个这样的手提箱炸弹
15:15
were actually not accountable.
361
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事实上是不受控制的
15:17
And they look like this. They're basically very simple arrangements.
362
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它们看起来就是这个样子。本质上来说结构非常简单。
15:19
You put the elements into a suitcase.
363
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你把这些部件放进一只手提箱
15:22
It becomes very portable.
364
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炸弹就变得非常便携。
15:24
The suitcase can be conveniently dropped
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这些手提箱非常容易就能放入
15:26
in your trunk of your car.
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你的汽车后备箱
15:28
You take it wherever you want to take it, and you can detonate it.
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你可以把它带到任何你想去地方然后引爆它
15:30
You don't want to build a suitcase bomb,
368
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如果你不想制造这种手提箱炸弹
15:33
and you happen to get one of those insecure
369
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而你又碰巧得到了一个因为安全措施没做好
15:35
nuclear warheads that exist.
370
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而被人偷出来的核弹头
15:37
This is the size of
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这是那枚在广岛爆炸的
15:39
the "Little Boy" bomb that was dropped at Hiroshima.
372
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“小男孩”核弹的大小
15:41
It was 9.8 feet long,
373
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长3米
15:43
weighed 8,800 pounds. You go down to
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重达4吨。你可以联系
15:45
your local rent-a-truck
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你周围的卡车出租公司
15:48
and for 50 bucks or so,
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花大概50美元
15:50
you rent a truck that's got the right capacity,
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租一辆容量正好的卡车
15:52
and you take your bomb,
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你带上你的核弹
15:54
you put it in the truck and you're ready to go.
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把它装进卡车，然后你就可以出发了
15:57
It could happen. But what it would mean and who would survive?
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这些是可能发生的。但重要的是这意味着什么，以及谁可以逃过这一劫
16:00
You can't get an exact number for that kind of probability,
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你没法得知这件事的可能性究竟是多少
16:03
but what I'm trying to say is that
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但是我要说的是
16:05
we have all the elements of that happening.
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以上所说的所有要素现在其实都满足了
16:07
Anybody who dismisses the thought
384
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任何对自己说
16:09
of a nuclear weapon
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核武器不会被恐怖分子使用的人
16:11
being used by a terrorist is kidding themselves.
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其实是在欺骗自己
16:13
I think there's a lot of people in the intelligence community --
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我想很多情报部门的人
16:16
a lot of people who deal with this work in general
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那些经常和这些工作打交道的人
16:19
think it's almost inevitable, unless we do certain things
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都认为这些袭击是不可避免的，除非我们采取某些措施
16:22
to really try to defuse the risk,
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去尽可能地规避危险
16:25
like better interdiction, better prevention,
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比如更好的管制，更好的防范
16:27
better fixing, you know, better screening
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更好的监测－或者说，更好的筛查
16:29
of cargo containers that are coming into the country and so forth.
393
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那些进口货物集装箱等等
16:32
There's a lot that can be done to make us a lot safer.
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许许多多能让我们变得更安全的举措有待实施
16:35
At this particular moment,
395
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此时此刻
16:37
we actually could end up
396
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我们完全有可能
16:39
seeing a nuclear detonation in one of our cities.
397
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目睹核弹在我们的城市中爆炸
16:42
I don't think we would see an all-out nuclear war
398
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我不认为我们在近期内会遇到全面爆发的核战争
16:45
any time soon, although even that is not completely off the table.
399
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虽然这也不是完全不可能
16:48
There's still enough nuclear weapons
400
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各个超级大国里的军火库里
16:50
in the arsenals of the superpowers
401
998000
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有足够的核武器
16:52
to destroy the Earth many, many times over.
402
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可以毁灭地球很多很多次
16:55
There are flash points in India and Pakistan,
403
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印巴冲突一触即发
16:58
in the Middle East, in North Korea,
404
1006000
2000
在中东，在北朝鲜
17:00
other places where the use of nuclear weapons,
405
1008000
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或者其他地方
17:03
while initially locally,
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虽然刚开始可能只在区域范围内使用核武器
17:05
could very rapidly
407
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2000
但有可能很快地
17:07
go into a situation
408
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发展并上升到
17:09
where we'd be facing all-out nuclear war.
409
1017000
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一场全面核战争
17:12
It's very unsettling.
410
1020000
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非常让人不安
17:15
Here we go. OK.
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好的，我们来亲眼看看吧
17:17
I'm back in my truck, and we drove over the Brooklyn Bridge.
412
1025000
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回到我刚才提到的卡车，我们把它开到布鲁克林大桥
17:20
We're coming down,
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我们一路开往市中心
17:22
and we bring that truck
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我们把车开到
17:24
that you just saw
415
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你刚看到的
17:26
somewhere in here, in the Financial District.
416
1034000
3000
金融区的某个地方
17:40
This is a 10-kiloton bomb,
417
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有一个一万吨级当量的核弹
17:43
slightly smaller than was used
418
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只比广岛爆炸的那枚核弹小一点
17:45
in Hiroshima. And I want to just conclude this
419
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我希望通过下面这个总结
17:48
by just giving you some information. I think --
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提供给大家一些信息，我想－
17:50
"news you could use" kind of concept here.
421
1058000
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可以说是一些“实用新闻”
17:53
So, first of all, this would be horrific
422
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首先，这可能听上去有些吓人
17:55
beyond anything we can possibly imagine.
423
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这可能超越了我们能够想象的范围
17:57
This is the ultimate.
424
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这是终极的危险
17:59
And if you're in the half-mile radius
425
1067000
2000
如果你位于距离爆炸中心
18:01
of where this bomb went off,
426
1069000
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半英里的范围内
18:03
you have a 90 percent chance of not making it.
427
1071000
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你面临的将是九死一生的情况
18:05
If you're right where the bomb went off,
428
1073000
2000
如果你就位于爆炸中心
18:07
you will be vaporized. And that's --
429
1075000
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你会被汽化，而这－
18:09
I'm just telling you, this is not good.
430
1077000
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我不得不说，非常遗憾
18:11
(Laughter)
431
1079000
2000
（笑声）
18:13
You assume that.
432
1081000
2000
假设
18:15
Two-mile radius, you have a 50 percent chance
433
1083000
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在半径两英里的范围内，
18:18
of being killed,
434
1086000
2000
你有百分之五十的机会生还
18:20
and up to about eight miles away --
435
1088000
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如果把范围扩大到八英里－
18:22
now I'm talking about killed instantly --
436
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我现在讨论的是立刻死亡的情况－
18:24
somewhere between a 10 and 20 percent
437
1092000
2000
估计死亡的概率
18:26
chance of getting killed.
438
1094000
2000
在百分之十到百分之二十之间
18:28
The thing about this is that
439
1096000
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事情是这样的
18:30
the experience of the nuclear detonation is --
440
1098000
4000
关于核弹爆炸，
18:34
first of all, tens of millions of degrees Fahrenheit
441
1102000
3000
首先，爆炸中心温度高达
18:37
at the core here, where it goes off,
442
1105000
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数千度，并且以
18:39
and an extraordinary amount of energy
443
1107000
2000
极高的热能
18:41
in the form of heat, acute radiation
444
1109000
3000
强烈的辐射
18:44
and blast effects.
445
1112000
2000
以及剧烈的爆炸等形式扩散
18:46
An enormous hurricane-like wind,
446
1114000
2000
在这个黄色区域内会产生
18:48
and destruction of buildings almost totally,
447
1116000
3000
一股像龙卷风一般的风暴
18:51
within this yellow circle here.
448
1119000
2000
所有建筑将几乎被全部摧毁
18:53
And what I'm going to focus on, as I come to conclusion here,
449
1121000
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在这个总结中我要重点强调的是
18:55
is that, what happens to you
450
1123000
3000
如果你在这儿
18:58
if you're in here?
451
1126000
2000
将会发生什么
19:00
Well, if we're talking about the old days
452
1128000
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如果我们说的是以前
19:02
of an all-out nuclear attack,
453
1130000
2000
所面临的那种全面核战争
19:04
you, up here,
454
1132000
1000
你，如果站在这儿
19:05
are as dead as the people here. So it was a moot point.
455
1133000
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和黄圈里的人一样难逃一劫。所以，（但对于现在而言）这是一个值得讨论的地方
19:08
My point now, though, is that there is a lot
456
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我现在所讲的重点是
19:10
that we could do for you who are in here,
457
1138000
2000
如果你身处这个区域内并在最初的爆炸中生还
19:12
if you've survived the initial blast.
458
1140000
2000
我有很多可以教你的东西
19:14
You have, when the blast goes off --
459
1142000
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当爆炸过后－
19:16
and by the way, if it ever comes up, don't look at it.
460
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顺便说一句，如果这些真的发生了，千万别用肉眼去看
19:18
(Laughter)
461
1146000
2000
（笑声）
19:20
If you look at it, you're going to be blind,
462
1148000
2000
如果你用肉眼去看，你将会失明
19:22
either temporarily or permanently.
463
1150000
2000
不管是暂时性的还是永久性的
19:24
So if there's any way that you can avoid,
464
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因此，如果可能避免的话
19:26
like, avert your eyes, that would be a good thing.
465
1154000
3000
比如，把目光移开，那将是一个很好的选择
19:29
If you find yourself alive, but
466
1157000
2000
如果你发现自己还活着，但是
19:31
you're in the vicinity of a nuclear weapon,
467
1159000
3000
你处在一个核武器爆炸中心的附近
19:34
you have -- that's gone off --
468
1162000
2000
你有－在爆炸发生之后－
19:36
you have 10 to 20 minutes, depending on the size
469
1164000
2000
你有10到20分钟的逃生时间
19:38
and exactly where it went off,
470
1166000
2000
具体时间取决于爆炸规模以及爆炸地点
19:40
to get out of the way before
471
1168000
2000
在升起的蘑菇云所带来的
19:42
a lethal amount of radiation
472
1170000
2000
致命的强辐射到来之前
19:44
comes straight down from the mushroom cloud that goes up.
473
1172000
3000
逃离那个区域
19:47
In that 10 to 15 minutes, all you have to do --
474
1175000
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在这10到15分钟内，你唯一需要做的－
19:49
and I mean this seriously --
475
1177000
2000
我说真的－
19:51
is go about a mile
476
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2000
就是跑一英里
19:53
away from the blast.
477
1181000
2000
远离爆炸点
19:55
And what happens is -- this is --
478
1183000
2000
接下来将要发生的－这是－
19:57
I'm going to show you now some fallout plumes. Within 20 minutes,
479
1185000
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我现在要向大家演示放射性坠尘。在20分钟内
19:59
it comes straight down. Within 24 hours,
480
1187000
2000
坠尘直线下落；24小时内，
20:01
lethal radiation is going out with prevailing winds,
481
1189000
3000
致命的辐射将随着盛行风飘散
20:04
and it's mostly in this particular direction --
482
1192000
2000
基本上沿着某一特定方向
20:06
it's going northeast.
483
1194000
2000
向东北方飘去
20:08
And if you're in this vicinity, you've got to get away.
484
1196000
3000
如果你在这附近，就得设法逃离
20:11
So you're feeling the wind --
485
1199000
2000
如果你感觉到了风
20:13
and there's tremendous wind now
486
1201000
2000
感觉到这股强劲的风
20:15
that you're going to be feeling -- and you want to go
487
1203000
2000
你就应该
20:17
perpendicular to the wind
488
1205000
2000
沿着垂直与风向的方向逃走
20:19
[not upwind or downwind].
489
1207000
2000
[不是侧风或顺风的方向]
20:21
if you are in fact able to see where the blast was in front of you.
490
1209000
3000
如果你能看到爆炸发生的地方的话
20:24
You've got to get out of there.
491
1212000
2000
你必须赶快离开那儿
20:26
If you don't get out of there, you're going to be exposed
492
1214000
2000
如果你没有迅速离开，你很快就会近距离
20:28
to lethal radiation in very short order.
493
1216000
2000
暴露在致命的辐射中
20:30
If you can't get out of there,
494
1218000
2000
如果你无法离开那里
20:32
we want you to go into a shelter and stay there.
495
1220000
3000
我希望你能找一个避难所躲起来
20:35
Now, in a shelter in an urban area means
496
1223000
3000
躲在城市里的避难所指的是
20:38
you have to be either in a basement as deep as possible,
497
1226000
3000
要么躲在地下室，越深越好
20:41
or you have to be on a floor -- on a high floor --
498
1229000
3000
要么躲在楼上，越高越好
20:44
if it's a ground burst explosion, which it would be,
499
1232000
3000
如果是爆炸发生在地面上（通常都是如此）
20:47
higher than the ninth floor. So you have to be tenth floor or higher,
500
1235000
2000
辐射尘可能会到达9楼。所以
你需要跑到10楼或者更高的楼层
你需要跑到10楼或者更高的楼层
20:49
or in the basement.
501
1237000
2000
或者躲到地下室
20:52
But basically, you've got to get out of town as quickly as possible.
502
1240000
3000
但总的来说，你需要尽快离开这座城市，越快越好
20:55
And if you do that,
503
1243000
2000
如果你这么做了
20:57
you actually can survive a nuclear blast.
504
1245000
4000
你其实是可以在一次核爆炸中生还的
21:01
Over the next few days to a week,
505
1249000
2000
在之后的几天到一周内
21:03
there will be a radiation cloud,
506
1251000
2000
如有辐射云－
21:05
again, going with the wind, and settling down
507
1253000
2000
同样随着风，然后下落
21:07
for another 15 or 20 miles out --
508
1255000
2000
继续往前推进15到20英里
21:09
in this case, over Long Island.
509
1257000
2000
在这个例子中会飘过长岛
21:11
And if you're in the direct fallout zone here,
510
1259000
3000
如果你处于放射性坠尘经过的区域
21:14
you really have to either be sheltered or you have to get out of there,
511
1262000
2000
你真的需要躲进避难所或者尽快离开
21:16
and that's clear. But if you are sheltered,
512
1264000
3000
这很明显。但那是如果你能躲进避难所
21:19
you can actually survive.
513
1267000
2000
你确实可以生还
21:21
The difference between knowing information
514
1269000
2000
每个人是否知道
21:23
of what you're going to do personally,
515
1271000
2000
应该如何逃生
21:25
and not knowing information, can save your life,
516
1273000
2000
所带来的区别
21:27
and it could mean the difference between
517
1275000
2000
影响了最终的死亡人数
21:29
150,000 to 200,000 fatalities
518
1277000
2000
是15万还是20万
21:31
from something like this
519
1279000
3000
在这个例子中
21:34
and half a million to 700,000 fatalities.
520
1282000
3000
将意味着死亡人数
能否从70万减少到50万
能否从70万减少到50万
21:37
So, response planning in the twenty-first century
521
1285000
3000
所以，21世纪的核应急预案
21:40
is both possible and is essential.
522
1288000
2000
不仅是可能的而且是必须的
21:42
But in 2008, there isn't one single American city
523
1290000
4000
但是直到2008年，全美国没有一个城市
21:46
that has done effective plans
524
1294000
2000
拥有有效的应急预案
21:48
to deal with a nuclear detonation disaster.
525
1296000
3000
来应对一次核爆炸灾难
21:51
Part of the problem is that
526
1299000
2000
部分原因是
21:53
the emergency planners themselves, personally,
527
1301000
2000
应急预案的制定者，他们自己
21:55
are overwhelmed psychologically by the thought
528
1303000
2000
都已经被核灾难这一想法
21:57
of nuclear catastrophe.
529
1305000
2000
从心理上击溃了
21:59
They are paralyzed.
530
1307000
2000
他们不知所措。
22:01
You say "nuclear" to them, and they're thinking,
531
1309000
2000
你如果和他们说起“核”，他们会想，
22:03
"Oh my God, we're all gone. What's the point? It's futile."
532
1311000
3000
“天啊，我们全都得死。
还有什么可说的呢？这都是徒劳。”
还有什么可说的呢？这都是徒劳。”
22:06
And we're trying to tell them, "It's not futile.
533
1314000
2000
我们所尝试的就是告诉他们这其实并非徒劳：
22:08
We can change the survival rates
534
1316000
2000
我们可以通过做一些常识普及的工作
22:10
by doing some commonsensical things."
535
1318000
3000
来提高生还比例
22:13
So the goal here is to minimize fatalities.
536
1321000
3000
我们的目标是将死亡人数降至最低
22:16
And I just want to leave you with the personal points
537
1324000
2000
我希望留给大家一些个人的看法
22:18
that I think you might be interested in.
538
1326000
2000
我认为你们可能会感兴趣的。
22:20
The key to surviving a nuclear blast
539
1328000
2000
在核爆炸中生存的关键
22:22
is getting out,
540
1330000
2000
就是逃出去
22:24
and not going into harm's way.
541
1332000
3000
并且不要误入危险区域
22:27
That's basically all we're going to be talking about here.
542
1335000
2000
这基本上就是我们接下来要讨论的全部内容
22:29
And the farther you are away in distance,
543
1337000
3000
你距离爆炸点的距离越远越好
22:32
the longer it is in time
544
1340000
2000
距离爆炸的时间
22:34
from the initial blast;
545
1342000
2000
越长越好
22:36
and the more separation between you
546
1344000
2000
尽可能地将自己
22:38
and the outside atmosphere, the better.
547
1346000
2000
和外界隔绝开来
22:40
So separation -- hopefully with dirt or concrete,
548
1348000
3000
所以，与外界隔绝隔绝－最好是用泥土和水泥隔绝
22:43
or being in a basement --
549
1351000
2000
或者躲在地下室－
22:45
distance and time is what will save you.
550
1353000
2000
保持距离，长时间远离，这些可以拯救你
22:47
So here's what you do. First of all,
551
1355000
2000
这些是你应该做的。第一，
22:49
as I said, don't stare at the light flash,
552
1357000
2000
正如我所说的，不要用肉眼看爆炸发出的光
22:51
if you can. I don't know you could possibly resist doing that.
553
1359000
2000
如果可能的话－我其实不太相信你们能忍住不看。
22:53
But let's assume, theoretically, you want to do that.
554
1361000
2000
让我们假设，从理论上而言，你会很想看。
22:55
You want to keep your mouth open, so your eardrums
555
1363000
2000
你最好让嘴巴保持张开的状态，这样你的鼓膜
22:57
don't burst from the pressures.
556
1365000
3000
不会在压力下破裂
23:00
If you're very close to what happened, you actually do have to duck and cover,
557
1368000
3000
如果你距离爆炸发生的地方很近，你需要迅速低头并且找掩体躲起来
23:03
like Bert told you, Bert the Turtle.
558
1371000
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正如贝尔告诉你的那样－就是那只叫贝尔的乌龟
23:05
And you want to get under something so that you're not injured
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可能的话，你最好躲在某些东西下面
23:08
or killed by objects, if that's at all possible.
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避免受伤或致死
23:10
You want to get away from the initial fallout mushroom cloud,
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你需要远离最初爆炸形成的放射性坠尘蘑菇云
23:12
I said, in just a few minutes.
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我刚刚说过，这些必须在几分钟内完成
23:14
And shelter and place. You want to move [only]
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并且躲到合适的地方。你需要沿着风的方向
23:17
crosswind for 1.2 miles.
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或者垂直于风的方向跑1.2英里
23:19
You know, if you're out there and you see buildings horribly destroyed
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你们知道，如果你看到在那边的建筑
23:22
and down in that direction,
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发生严重的损毁
23:24
less destroyed here,
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但是这边的建筑损毁得没有那么严重
23:26
then you know that it was over there, the blast, and you're going this way,
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那么你就可以知道爆炸发生在那边，
而你应该朝着这个方向走
而你应该朝着这个方向走
23:28
as long as you're going crosswise to the wind.
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同时注意垂直于风的方向走
23:32
Once you're out and evacuating,
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每当你在户外或者在转移过程中
23:34
you want to keep as much of your skin,
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你需要尽可能地用东西盖住自己的皮肤
23:36
your mouth and nose covered, as long as that covering
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以及口鼻，只要这些覆盖物
23:38
doesn't impede you moving and getting out of there.
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不会影响到你的移动和撤离
23:41
And finally, you want to get decontaminated as soon as possible.
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最后，你需要尽快去除身上的放射性污染
23:44
And if you're wearing clothing, you've taken off your clothing,
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如果你穿着衣服，最好找个地方把衣服脱掉
23:46
you're going to get showered down some place
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并且洗个澡
23:48
and remove the radiation that would be --
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从而去除辐射污染
23:50
the radioactive material that might be on you.
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这些辐射物质这时候可能已经附着在你身上
23:53
And then you want to stay in shelter for 48 to 72 hours minimum,
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之后你需要在避难所里呆上至少48到72小时
23:57
but you're going to wait hopefully -- you'll have your little wind-up,
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接下来就是等待了，最好的情况你能有个小型的
23:59
battery-less radio,
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不需要电池的发条式收音机
24:01
and you'll be waiting for people to tell you
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一直等到有人告诉你
24:03
when it's safe to go outside. That's what you need to do.
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什么时候外面已经安全了。
然后再走到外面来
然后再走到外面来
24:05
In conclusion,
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总结一下，
24:07
nuclear war is less likely than before,
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核战争已经不想以前那样了
24:09
but by no means out of the question, and it's not survivable.
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从前的核战争是几乎不能从中生还的。
24:12
Nuclear terrorism is possible -- it may be probable --
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现在的核恐怖袭击是可能发生的，
甚至可以说很有可能发生的
甚至可以说很有可能发生的
24:15
but is survivable.
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但是我们是有可能生还的
24:17
And this is Jack Geiger, who's one of the heroes
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这是杰克·盖格，
24:19
of the U.S. public health community.
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他是美国公众健康界的英雄之一
24:22
And Jack said the only way to deal
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杰克说解决核问题的
24:24
with nuclear anything,
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唯一方法
24:26
whether it's war or terrorism,
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不管是核战争还是核恐怖袭击
24:28
is abolition of nuclear weapons.
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就是废除核武器
24:30
And you want something to work on once you've fixed global warming,
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如果你想在全球变暖被解决后找点事情做
24:33
I urge you to think about the fact that
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我强烈建议你思考一下这个事实
24:35
we have to do something about this
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我们必须采取一些行动来解决
24:37
unacceptable, inhumane
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这些不能被容忍的，不人道的
24:39
reality of nuclear weapons
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核武器给我们这个世界
24:41
in our world.
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所带来的问题
24:43
Now, this is my favorite civil defense slide, and I --
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这是我最喜欢的民事防御的宣传画
24:45
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
24:47
-- I don't want to be indelicate, but
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我不想成为一个粗鄙的人，不过－
24:49
this --
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这个－
24:51
he's no longer in office. We don't really care, OK.
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他已经不在任了，所以我们没必要认真，对吧。
24:54
This was sent to me by somebody
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这是某个人给我的
24:56
who is an aficionado of civil defense procedures,
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这个人非常热衷于民事防御建设
24:59
but the fact of the matter is that
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但真正重要的事实是
25:01
America's gone through a very hard time.
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美国已经经历了一段非常艰难的时期
25:03
We've not been focused, we've not done what we had to do,
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我们没有能够专注地去完成那些我们必须完成的事情
25:06
and now we're facing the potential of
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而现在我们面对的是
25:09
bad, hell on Earth.
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可能将人间变成地狱的潜在危险
25:11
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Irwin Redlener - Physician, disaster-preparedness activistDr. Irwin Redlener spends his days imagining the worst: He studies how humanity might survive natural or human-made disasters of unthinkable severity. He's been an outspoken critic of half-formed government recovery plans (especially after Katrina).
Why you should listen
After 9/11, Irwin Redlener emerged as a powerful voice in disaster medicine -- the discipline of medical care following natural and human-made catastrophes. He was a leading face of the relief effort after hurricanes Katrina and Rita, and is the author of Americans at Risk: Why We Are Not Prepared for Megadisasters and What We Can Do Now. He's the associate dean, professor of Clinical Public Health and director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia's Mailman School of Public Health.
His parallel passion is addressing the American disaster that happens every day: millions of kids living without proper health care. He and Paul Simon are the co-founders of the Children's Health Fund, which raises money and awareness toward health care for homeless, neglected and poor children.
Irwin Redlener | Speaker | TED.com