ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Johnson - Writer
Steven Berlin Johnson examines the intersection of science, technology and personal experience.

Why you should listen

Steven Johnson is a leading light of today's interdisciplinary and collaborative approach to innovation. His writings have influenced everything from cutting-edge ideas in urban planning to the battle against 21st-century terrorism. Johnson was chosen by Prospect magazine as one of the top ten brains of the digital future, and The Wall Street Journal calls him "one of the most persuasive advocates for the role of collaboration in innovation."

Johnson's work on the history of innovation inspired the Emmy-nominated six-part series on PBS, "How We Got To Now with Steven Johnson," which aired in the fall of 2014. The book version of How We Got To Now was a finalist for the PEN/E.O. Wilson Literary Science Writing Award. His new book, Wonderland: How Play Made the Modern World, revolves around the creative power of play and delight: ideas and innovations that set into motion many momentous changes in science, technology, politics and society. 

Johnson is also the author of the bestselling Where Good Ideas Come From: The Natural History of Innovation, one of his many books celebrating progress and innovation. Others include The Invention of Air and The Ghost Map. Everything Bad Is Good For You, one of the most discussed books of 2005, argued that the increasing complexity of modern media is training us to think in more complex ways. Emergence and Future Perfect explore the power of bottom-up intelligence in both nature and contemporary society.

An innovator himself, Johnson has co-created three influential sites: the pioneering online magazine FEED, the Webby-Award-winning community site, Plastic.com, and the hyperlocal media site outside.in, which was acquired by AOL in 2011.

Johnson is a regular contributor to WIRED magazine, as well as the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and many other periodicals. He has appeared on many high-profile television programs, including "The Charlie Rose Show," "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" and "The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer."


More profile about the speaker
Steven Johnson | Speaker | TED.com
TED2003

Steven Johnson: The Web as a city

史蒂夫.约翰逊:互联网就像一个城市

Filmed:
395,928 views

史蒂夫.约翰逊说互联网就像一个城市:许多人曾参与它的修建,但没有人能完全控制它,其内的各个部分错综复杂的相互联系却又可以独立运行。当灾难在一处发生发生,别处的生活依然继续。
- Writer
Steven Berlin Johnson examines the intersection of science, technology and personal experience. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:18
I want to take you back basically基本上 to my hometown家乡,
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我想先让你们看看我居住的地方
00:21
and to a picture图片 of my hometown家乡 of the week
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及那地方的一张照片
00:23
that "Emergence紧急情况" came来了 out.
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拍摄于我的书《涌现现象:蚂蚁、大脑、城市、和电脑软件的生命连接》(以下简称《涌现现象》)出版的那一周
00:25
And it's a picture图片 we've我们已经 seen看到 several一些 times.
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其实这是一张我们见过多次的照片
00:33
Basically基本上, "Emergence紧急情况" was published发表 on 9/11.
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因为《涌现现象》正好在9.11那一天出版
00:36
I live生活 right there in the West西 Village,
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我就住在这儿,西村(一个曼哈顿的街区,以波希米亚风格出名)
00:41
so the plume was luckily blowing west西, away from us.
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事故造成的巨大烟雾向西边飘去,所幸远离了我住的地方。
00:46
We had a two-and-a-half-day-old两个和一个半日龄 baby宝宝 in the house that was ours我们的 --
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那时我们家刚有一个出生2天半的婴儿。这当然是我们的孩子,
00:53
we hadn't有没有 taken采取 it from somebody else其他.
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不是从别人那儿带走的。
00:55
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
00:57
And one of the thoughts思念 that I had dealing交易 with these two separate分离 emergencesemergences
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我当时需要同时处理新书和新生儿这两件不同的事,
01:04
of a book and a baby宝宝, and having this event事件 happen发生 so close --
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而发生911的地方离我这么近,
01:08
that my first thought, when I was still kind of in the apartment公寓 looking out at it all
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当我从我家公寓王望出去
01:12
or walking步行 out on the street and looking out on it just in front面前 of our building建造,
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或者在公寓前面的街道边看出去,
01:15
was that I'd made制作 a terrible可怕 miscalculation失算 in the book that I'd just written书面.
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我的第一个念头是:完了,我刚在新书中提出一个很糟糕的论断。
01:20
Because so much of that book was a celebration庆典 of the power功率
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因为那本书花了很多笔墨去赞扬人口高密度的力量
01:24
and creative创作的 potential潜在 of density密度, of largely大部分 urban城市的 density密度,
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和创新潜能,准确的说是城市人口的高密度。
01:28
of connecting people and putting them together一起 in one place地点,
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赞扬它把人们联系起来并置于同一场所
01:31
and putting them on sidewalks人行道 together一起 and having them share分享 ideas思路
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或同一街道,让人们交换信息
01:34
and share分享 physical物理 space空间 together一起.
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并分享一起相处的物理空间。
01:36
And it seemed似乎 to me looking at that -- that tower burning燃烧 and then falling落下,
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当看着世贸大厦燃烧和坍塌
01:39
those towers burning燃烧 and falling落下 -- that in fact事实, one of the lessons教训
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对我来说,学到的一课就是
01:41
here was that density密度 kills杀死.
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高人口密度反而会带来伤害
01:43
And that of all the technologies技术 that were exploited利用
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如果说所以曾被开发的技术
01:46
to make that carnage大屠杀 come into being存在,
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都是被用在这场人类的悲剧中,
01:51
probably大概 the single group of technologies技术 that cost成本 the most lives生活
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也许可以让最多生命消失的技术
01:57
were those that enable启用 50,000 people to live生活 in two buildings房屋
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就是建造出2栋可以同时容纳五万人
02:01
110 stories故事 above以上 the ground地面.
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并且有110层高的大楼的技术。
02:03
If they hadn't有没有 been crowded --
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如果那里不是塞满了人,
02:05
you compare比较 the loss失利 of life at the Pentagon五角大楼 to the Twin双胞胎 Towers,
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你对比一下五角大楼和世贸的死亡人数,
02:08
and you can see that very powerfully有力.
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就可以意识到高密度的悲剧程度。
02:10
And so I started开始 to think, well, you know, density密度, density密度 --
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因此我开始想高密度
02:13
I'm not sure if, you know, this was the right call.
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是否是一个正确的提议。我不确定。
02:17
And I kind of ruminated沉思 on that for a couple一对 of days.
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好多天里我都陷入这样的沉思
02:20
And then about two days later后来, the wind started开始 to change更改 a little bit,
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几天后,风向开始变化,
02:24
and you could sense that the air空气 was not healthy健康.
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依然可以感到空气不是那么干净
02:27
And so even though虽然 there were no cars汽车 still in the West西 Village
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即使在西村的街上依然没有半辆车,
02:31
where we lived生活, my wife妻子 sent发送 me out to buy购买 a, you know,
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我老婆还是让我去
02:34
a large air空气 filter过滤 at the Bed Bath and Beyond,
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Bed Bath & Beyond (美国家居装饰零售巨头) 买个大点的空气过滤器。
02:38
which哪一个 was located位于 about 20 blocks away, north.
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最近的店就在20个街区以北。
02:41
And so I went out.
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我只得出门。
02:43
And obviously明显 I'm physically物理 a very strong强大 person, as you can tell -- (Laughter笑声) --
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很显然像我这样体格健壮的人,
02:47
so I wasn't worried担心 about carrying携带 this thing 20 blocks.
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根本不担心提着那鬼东西步行20个街区。
02:50
And I walked out, and this really miraculous神奇 thing happened发生 to me
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我出门后发现了巨神奇的事情,
02:54
as I was walking步行 north to buy购买 this air空气 filter过滤,
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在我去买空气净化器的路上
02:57
which哪一个 was that the streets街道 were completely全然 alive with people.
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发现所有的街道都很有人气。
03:02
There was an incredible难以置信 -- it was, you know, a beautiful美丽 day,
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这很不可思议。那天天气很好,
03:05
as it was for about a week after,
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也是911发生一周后
03:07
and the West西 Village had never seemed似乎 more lively活泼.
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西村从未显得如此有活力过。
03:10
I walked up along沿 Hudson哈德森 Street --
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我沿着哈德逊街走,
03:12
where Jane Jacobs雅各布斯 had lived生活 and written书面 her great book
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简.雅各布斯大妈曾在住那里写出了她那本《美国大城市的死于生》(城市规划专业的必读书,书中简大妈把美国60年代的城市规划批了个底朝天)
03:14
that so influenced影响 what I was writing写作 in "Emergence紧急情况" --
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那本书也对我的著作《涌现现象》有很大的影响
03:16
past过去 the White白色 Horse Tavern酒馆,
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经过白马酒馆 (在五、六十年代以波希米亚风闻名,很多作家,艺术家,及文艺女青常在此闲逛聚会),
03:18
that great old bar酒吧 where Dylan迪伦 Thomas托马斯 drank himself他自己 to death死亡,
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狄兰·托马斯(英国超现实主义诗人)曾在这个古老的酒馆喝到挂,
03:21
and the Bleecker布利克 Street playground操场 was filled填充 with kids孩子.
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许多孩子在布立克街(曼哈顿著名的夜店街)的儿童乐园玩耍
03:24
And all the people who lived生活 in the neighborhood邻里,
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所有人包括这里的居民
03:26
who owned拥有的 restaurants餐馆 and bars酒吧 in the neighborhood邻里,
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和餐馆酒吧的老板们
03:28
were all out there -- had them all open打开.
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都钻了出来,所有的餐厅和酒吧也都在营业
03:30
People were out.
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人们都钻了出来。
03:32
There were no cars汽车, so it seemed似乎 even better, in some ways方法.
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街区没有车辆经过,从某种方面来说,甚至更好。
03:34
And it was a beautiful美丽 urban城市的 day,
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那一天人们有着舒服的城市生活
03:37
and the incredible难以置信 thing about it was that the city was working加工.
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另外一件不可思议的就是城市依旧在正常的运转
03:41
The city was there.
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城市依旧存在。
03:43
All the things that make a great city successful成功
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所有让一个城市变得成功的因素,
03:45
and all the things that make a great city stimulating刺激 --
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所有让一个城市变得动感的因素,
03:47
they were all on display显示 there on those streets街道.
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都在那些街道上一一展现。
03:49
And I thought, well, this is the power功率 of a city.
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我想这就是城市的力量
03:53
I mean, the power功率 of the city --
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我想,
03:55
we talked about cities城市 as being存在 centralized集中 in space空间,
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当说起城市,我们都认为它们是在空间上集中并逐步中心化。
03:57
but what makes品牌 them so strong强大 most of the time
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但是很多时候让城市如此强大
03:59
is they're decentralized分散 in function功能.
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是它们非中心化的活动
04:01
They don't have a center中央 executive行政人员 branch that you can take out
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城市没有一个可以让你拿掉的枢纽中心
04:03
and cause原因 the whole整个 thing to fail失败.
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从而造成所有活动停止
04:05
If they did, it probably大概 was right there at Ground地面 Zero.
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如果真有,它可能就是世贸中心。
04:08
I mean, you know, the emergency bunker掩体 was right there,
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我的意思是, 紧急地下防空洞就在那里
04:10
was destroyed销毁 by the attacks攻击,
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被袭击所毁灭
04:12
and obviously明显 the damage损伤 doneDONE to the building建造 and the lives生活.
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对建筑和生命造成了明显的伤害。
04:14
But nonetheless尽管如此,, just 20 blocks north, two days later后来,
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但是2天后,在距它以北二十个街区的地方,
04:18
the city had never looked看着 more alive.
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城市好似从未如此的充满活力
04:21
If you'd gone走了 into the minds头脑 of the people,
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如果你进入人们的内心
04:23
well, you would have seen看到 a lot of trauma外伤,
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许多心灵的创伤依然尚未平复。
04:25
and you would have seen看到 a lot of heartache心痛,
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许多悲痛依然尚未消失。
04:27
and you would have seen看到 a lot of things that would take a long time to recover恢复.
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人们还需要长时间的恢复。
04:30
But the system系统 itself本身 of this city was thriving.
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但是这个城市自身的系统却在发展壮大。
04:33
So I took heart in seeing眼看 that.
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我仔细的想了想
04:36
So I wanted to talk a little bit about the reasons原因 why that works作品 so well,
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我想讲一点关于这个系统运行如此良好的原理
04:42
and how some of those reasons原因 kind of map地图
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和如何运用这些原理
04:44
on to where the Web卷筒纸 is going right now.
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使得互联网发展到今天这个地步。
04:47
The question that I found发现 myself asking to people
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我发现自己在问别人问题时,
04:49
when I was talking about the book afterwards之后 is --
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当我说到这《涌现现象》本书
04:51
when you've talked about emergent应急 behavior行为,
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当说到涌现现象
04:53
when you've talked about collective集体 intelligence情报,
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当说到群体智慧
04:55
the best最好 way to get people to kind of wrap their heads around that
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让人们听懂的最好方式
04:57
is to ask, who builds建立 a neighborhood邻里?
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就是用城市作为比喻,询问他们谁造就了这些城市中街区?
05:00
Who decides决定 that Soho苏荷 should have this personality个性
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谁让Soho有这样的个性?
05:03
and that the Latin拉丁 Quarter25美分硬币 should have this personality个性?
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让拉丁区有那样的特点?
05:05
Well, there are some kind of executive行政人员 decisions决定,
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固然其中有一些高层的战略决定
05:07
but mostly大多 the answer回答 is -- everybody每个人 and nobody没有人.
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但答案却是每个人和没有人
05:09
Everybody每个人 contributes有助于 a little bit.
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每人都对它们都有一点贡献
05:11
No single person is really the ultimate最终 actor演员
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却没有人真正是这个街区
05:15
behind背后 the personality个性 of a neighborhood邻里.
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的终极塑造者
05:17
Same相同 thing to the question of, who was keeping保持 the streets街道 alive
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同样的,如果问到,在911的悲剧之后,是谁还让我所居住的社区
05:20
post-9/11 in my neighborhood邻里?
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和街道充满了活力?
05:22
Well, it was the whole整个 city.
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对,就是整个城市本身。
05:24
The whole整个 system系统 kind of working加工 on it,
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整个系统使得它运转
05:26
and everybody每个人 contributing贡献 a small little part部分.
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每个人都有一点点贡献。
05:28
And this is increasingly日益 what we're starting开始 to see on the Web卷筒纸
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我们把注意力转移到互联网上,
05:31
in a bunch of interesting有趣 ways方法 --
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现在可以看到越来越多有趣的事情。
05:33
most of which哪一个 weren't around, actually其实,
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但当《涌现现象》出版之前后,
05:35
except in very experimental试验 things,
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除了某些实验性的东西之外,
05:37
when I was writing写作 "Emergence紧急情况" and when the book came来了 out.
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这些有趣的事情和现象大多还不具备普遍性。
05:39
So it's been a very optimistic乐观 time, I think,
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所以这是一个令人乐观的年代,
05:41
and I want to just talk about a few少数 of those things.
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我只想讲其中的几件事。
05:43
I think that there is effectively有效 a new kind of model模型 of interactivity互动
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我相信在网络上开始出现了一种
05:47
that's starting开始 to emerge出现 online线上 right now.
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新的互动模式
05:49
And the old one looked看着 like this.
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旧的模式是这样的
05:54
This is not the future未来 King国王 of England英国, although虽然 it looks容貌 like it.
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这不是未来英伦之王,虽然看起来像
05:58
It's some guy, it's a GeoCities地球村 homepage主页 of some guy that I found发现 online线上
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这只是一男的,我在GeoCities(一个失败的网络产品,2009雅虎将其关闭)的主页上找到的。
06:01
who's谁是 interested有兴趣, if you look at the bottom底部, in soccer足球 and Jesus耶稣
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在下方你会看到,他对足球和耶稣感兴趣
06:04
and Garth加思 Brooks布鲁克斯 and Clint克林特 Beckham贝克汉姆 and "my hometown家乡" -- those are his links链接.
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以及加思·布鲁克斯(美国乡村音乐的天王),Clint Bickham(美国配音演员),还有我的家乡。这些是他网站的链接
06:07
But nothing really says
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毋庸置疑
06:09
this model模型 of interactivity互动 -- which哪一个 was so exciting扣人心弦 and captures捕获 the real真实,
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这种曾让人兴奋而如此真实的互动模式
06:13
the Web卷筒纸 Zeitgeist时代精神 of 1995 -- than
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类似于1995年的网络新潮玩意儿
06:16
"Click点击 here for a picture图片 of my dog."
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不像类似 "看我狗的照片请点这里"
06:18
That is -- you know, there's no sentence句子
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这里没有任何句子
06:20
that kind of conjures浮现 up that period better than that, I think,
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我认为没有比这东西更能唤起对那个时代的想象
06:24
which哪一个 is that you suddenly突然 have the power功率 to put up a picture图片 of your dog
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因为突然你有能力把你家狗的照片
06:27
and link链接 to it, and somebody reading the page
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链接上互联网,而其他人如果正在网上
06:30
has the power功率 to click点击 on that link链接 or not click点击 on that link链接.
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也有权力点击或不点击这个链接。
06:33
And, you know, I don't want to belittle贬低 that. That, in a sense --
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我不想瞧不起这玩意儿。在某种程度上来说,
06:36
to reference参考 what Jeff杰夫 was talking about yesterday昨天 --
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如果引用杰夫昨天说的话,
06:39
that was, in a sense, the kind of interface接口 electricity电力 that
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这是基本上是一种电子界面
06:41
powered动力 a lot of the explosion爆炸 of interest利益 in the Web卷筒纸:
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极大的增加了人们对互联网的兴趣。
06:44
that you could put up a link链接, and somebody could click点击 on it,
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你放上一个链接,其他人就可以去点击它
06:46
and it could take you anywhere随地 you wanted to go.
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你也可以去任何你想去的网站。
06:48
But it's still a very one-to-one一到一个 kind of relationship关系.
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但这依然只是一对一的关系
06:50
There's one person putting up the link链接, and there's another另一个 person
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有人放一个链接,其他人在另外一边
06:52
on the other end结束 trying to decide决定 whether是否 to click点击 on it or not.
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决定着点击或不点击
06:57
The new model模型 is much more like this,
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新的模式却更像是这样的
06:59
and we've我们已经 already已经 seen看到 a couple一对 of references引用 to this.
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我们已经见过好几个例子
07:01
This is what happens发生 when you search搜索 "Steven史蒂芬 Johnson约翰逊" on Google谷歌.
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当你在Google上搜索史蒂夫.约翰逊的时候,就会这样
07:05
About two months个月 ago, I had the great breakthrough突破 --
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2个月前,我有了巨大的突破
07:09
one of my great, kind of shining闪亮的 achievements成就 --
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我想这会是我最大的成就之一
07:12
which哪一个 is that my website网站 finally最后 became成为 a top最佳 result结果 for "Steven史蒂芬 Johnson约翰逊."
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我的个人网站终于排在了搜索结果的第一位
07:15
There's some theoretical理论 physicist物理学家 at MITMIT named命名 Steven史蒂芬 Johnson约翰逊
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这里有个叫史蒂夫.约翰逊的麻省理工理论物理学家
07:21
who has dropped下降 two spots斑点, I'm happy快乐 to say.
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他降了两位。我很开心。
07:24
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑)
07:25
And, you know, I mean, I'll look at a couple一对 of things like this,
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我以后还会再做类似的事情。
07:29
but Google谷歌 is obviously明显 the greatest最大 technology技术 ever invented发明 for navel gazing凝视.
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对于这样的自我陶醉者,Google绝对是迄今最好用的技术
07:33
It's just that there are so many许多 other people in your navel when you gaze凝视.
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只是你会在沉醉中也同时看到很多其他人的名字
07:36
Because effectively有效, what's happening事件 here,
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因为事实上
07:41
what's creating创建 this page, obviously明显 -- and we all know this,
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创造这个搜索页面的,虽然我们都知道是怎么回事
07:43
but it's worth价值 just thinking思维 about it --
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但是还是值得想一想
07:45
is not some person deciding决定 that I am the number one answer回答 for Steven史蒂芬 Johnson约翰逊,
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并不是某个人。不是他来决定要让我出现在‘史蒂夫.约翰逊’的众多搜索结果中的头一个。
07:49
but rather somehow不知何故 the entire整个 web卷筒纸 of people
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而是所有的网民
07:53
putting up pages网页 and deciding决定 to link链接 to my page or not link链接 to it,
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我架上我的网页,网民决定着点击或不点击。
07:56
and Google谷歌 just sitting坐在 there and running赛跑 the numbers数字.
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Google只是在家算着数字而已。
07:59
So there's this collective集体 decision-making做决定 that's going on.
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所以这是即时的群体决策。
08:03
This page is effectively有效, collectively authored创作 by the Web卷筒纸,
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整个互联网的网民集体编著了这个页面
08:06
and Google谷歌 is just helping帮助 us
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Google只是帮助大家
08:08
kind of to put the authorship作者 in one kind of coherent相干 place地点.
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把这个‘著作’清晰的表现出来。
08:11
Now, they're more innovative创新 -- well, Google's谷歌的 pretty漂亮 innovative创新 --
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现在它们更创新的,当然Google一直都很具创新性。
08:14
but there are some new twists曲折 on this.
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我发现有一些在这基础上的新的技术。
08:17
There's this incredibly令人难以置信 interesting有趣 new site现场 -- TechnoratiTechnorati的 --
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有个非常有趣的新网站 - 叫Technorati (一家专门搜索博客的搜索网站)
08:19
that's filled填充 with lots of little widgets小部件 that are expanding扩大 on these.
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充满了各种网络小应用程序并逐步扩展他们。
08:23
And these are looking in the blog博客 world世界 and the world世界 of weblogs博客.
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它关注的是整个博客世界。
08:27
He's analyzed分析 basically基本上 all the weblogs博客 out there that he's tracking追踪.
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简单的说,就是分析他追踪所有博客
08:31
And he's tracking追踪 how many许多 other weblogs博客 linked关联 to those weblogs博客,
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同时也追踪有多少其他博客链接到之前所追踪的博客。
08:34
and so you have kind of an authority权威 --
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因此得出一个所谓的权威榜
08:36
a weblog博客 that has a lot of links链接 to it
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一个被其他博客链接许多次的博客
08:38
is more authoritative权威性 than a weblog博客 that has few少数 links链接 to it.
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比一个只被链接几次而已的博客更具权威性。
08:43
And so at any given特定 time, on any given特定 page on the Web卷筒纸, actually其实,
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所以在任何时间,任何网页上,
08:45
you can say, what does the weblog博客 community社区 think about this page?
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如果你想知道博客界如何看待这个网页。
08:48
And you can get a list名单.
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你就可以得到这份列表。
08:50
This is what they think about my site现场; it's ranked排名 by blog博客 authority权威.
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这里可以看到博客界如何看我的网站 - 这是根据博客权威性的排名
08:53
You can also rank it by the latest最新 posts帖子.
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也可以根据更新的帖子排名
08:55
So when I was talking in "Emergence紧急情况,"
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在《涌现现象》中
08:58
I talked about the limitations限制 of the one-way单程 linking链接 architecture建筑
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我提到单向链接的局限性
09:00
that, basically基本上, you could link链接 to somebody else其他
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基本上就是你可以链接到任何人
09:02
but they wouldn't不会 necessarily一定 know that you were pointing指点 to them.
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但他们却对你的连接毫不知情。
09:04
And that was one of the reasons原因 why the web卷筒纸
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这也是为什么互联网
09:07
wasn't quite相当 as emergent应急 as it could be
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还不具备本该有的涌现性。
09:09
because you needed需要 two-way双向 linking链接, you needed需要 that kind of feedback反馈 mechanism机制
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因为只有双向的链接和互动机制
09:11
to be able能够 to really do interesting有趣 things.
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才能真正做到一些牛逼的事情。
09:13
Well, something like TechnoratiTechnorati的 is supplying供应 that.
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因此像Technorati类似的网站提供了这样服务
09:16
Now what's interesting有趣 here is that this is a quote引用 from Dave戴夫 Weinberger温伯格,
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这里有段来自大卫•温伯格(美国著名的网络思想家)的话
09:19
where he talks会谈 about everything being存在 purposive立意 in the Web卷筒纸 --
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他认为所有互联网上的事物都是有目的性的
09:23
there's nothing artificial人造.
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都是人为而非自然的
09:25
He has this line线 where he says, you know, you're going to put up a link链接 there,
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他说,如果现在有一个链接在这里
09:27
if you see a link链接, somebody decided决定 to put it there.
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你看见那个链接是因为另外一个人决定放在这里,
09:30
And he says, the link链接 to one site现场 didn't just grow增长 on the other page "like a tree fungus."
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一个网页的链接不会像树菌一样在另外一个网页上长出来。
09:35
And in fact事实, I think that's not entirely完全 true真正 anymore.
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但我不认为这个理论完全正确
09:38
I could put up a feed饲料 of all those links链接 generated产生 by TechnoratiTechnorati的
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如果在我主页右边
09:42
on the right-hand右手 side of my page,
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放一个来自Technorati所有链接的订阅点(feed)
09:44
and they would change更改 as the overall总体 ecology生态 of the Web卷筒纸 changes变化.
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它会随着整个互联网的生态变化而变化
09:47
That little list名单 there would change更改.
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这个列表会变化
09:49
I wouldn't不会 really be directly in control控制 of it.
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我却不能直接按照我的意志控制它
09:51
So it's much closer接近, in a way, to a data数据 fungus, in a sense,
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在某种程度上来看,这更像一个数据似的真菌
09:54
wrapped包裹 around that page, than it is to a deliberate商榷 link链接 that I've placed放置 there.
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在我的网页上不断的生长,而非一个我刻意放在这边并由我操控的的链接
10:00
Now, what you're having here is basically基本上 a global全球 brain
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这基本上就是个全球脑(地球是一个脑,每个人是一个神经元的理论)
10:03
that you're able能够 to do lots of kind of experiments实验 on to see what it's thinking思维.
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基于此你可以做很多不同的实验,看看这个‘脑’在想些什么。
10:06
And there are all these interesting有趣 tools工具.
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现在有很多好玩的工具
10:08
Google谷歌 does the Google谷歌 Zeitgeist时代精神,
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Google开发了Google Zeitgeist (google网络查询分析程序,分析搜索的关键词和热门网站)
10:10
which哪一个 looks容貌 at search搜索 requests要求 to test测试 what's going on, what people are interested有兴趣 in,
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可以通过搜索的信息观察发生的事情和人们的喜好
10:15
and they publish发布 it with lots of fun开玩笑 graphs.
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最后发布一些有趣的数据图像。
10:17
And I'm saying a lot of nice不错 things about Google谷歌,
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我一直在为Google背书,
10:19
so I'll be I'll be saying one little critical危急 thing.
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但现在我要提出一点批评
10:20
There's a problem问题 with the Google谷歌 Zeitgeist时代精神,
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Google Zeitgeist的一个问题
10:22
which哪一个 is it often经常 comes back with news新闻 that a lot of people are searching搜索
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就是通过它得到的信息往往都是众人都在搜索
10:26
for Britney布兰妮 Spears布兰妮 pictures图片, which哪一个 is not necessarily一定 news新闻.
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艳照门的照片,但这已经不是什么新知了。
10:30
The Columbia哥伦比亚 blows打击 up, suddenly突然 there are a lot of searches搜索 on Columbia哥伦比亚.
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当哥伦比亚号航天飞机遇难后,突然出现很多关于哥伦比亚号的搜索
10:34
Well, you know, we should expect期望 to see that.
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当然我们可以预估到它的发生
10:36
That's not necessarily一定 something we didn't know already已经.
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这不是我们以前未知的。
10:38
So the key thing in terms条款 of these new tools工具
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这些新工具
10:40
that are kind of plumbing水暖 the depths深处 of the global全球 brain,
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它们可以探测‘全球脑’的深度
10:43
that are sending发出 kind of trace跟踪 dyes染料 through通过 that whole整个 bloodstream血液 --
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也可以释放类似于染色原料在血液循环系统中,去追踪和分析趋势。
10:47
the question is, are you finding发现 out something new?
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但问题的关键是,我们是不是可以从中找到一些新的东西?
10:49
And one of the things that I experimented试验 with is this thing called Google谷歌 Share分享
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我曾经试过的一个叫GoogleShare的新玩意儿。
10:52
which哪一个 is basically基本上, you take an abstract抽象 term术语,
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实际上就是你放一个词
10:56
and you search搜索 Google谷歌 for that term术语,
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在google上搜索,
10:59
and then you search搜索 the results结果 that you get back for somebody's某人的 name名称.
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然后把这个词和某人名字再一起搜索。
11:02
So basically基本上, the number of pages网页 that mention提到 this term术语,
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所以这个词的搜索页面数
11:06
that also mention提到 this page, the percentage百分比 of those pages网页
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和它加了到某人名字的搜索页面数的百分比
11:09
is that person's人的 Google谷歌 Share分享 of that term术语.
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即为这个人的关于这个词的GoogleShare.(其实就是这个人和这个词的关联度)
11:11
So you can do kind of interesting有趣 contests竞赛.
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你可以搞个有趣的比赛
11:13
Like for instance, this is a Google谷歌 Share分享 of the TEDTED Conference会议.
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比如TED大会的GoogleShare
11:17
So Richard理查德 Saul索尔 Wurman沃尔曼
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理查德·沃尔曼(TED大会的创始人)
11:20
has about a 15 percent百分 Google谷歌 Share分享 of the TEDTED conference会议.
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拥有15%TED大会的GoogleShare
11:24
Our good friend朋友 Chris克里斯 has about a six percent百分 -- but with a bullet子弹, I might威力 add.
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我们的好朋友克里斯也占有6%,但我也许会加一个小数点
11:29
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
11:31
But the interesting有趣 thing is, you can broaden扩大 the search搜索 a little bit.
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好玩的是,如果你把搜索扩展一点
11:34
And it turns out, actually其实, that 42 percent百分 is the Mola莫拉 mola莫拉 fish.
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会发现曼波魚居然占42%。
11:37
I had no idea理念.
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我被雷到了。
11:39
No, that's not true真正.
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你们被忽悠了。
11:40
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
11:43
I made制作 that up because I just wanted to put up a slide滑动
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这是我编的,因为我只想放一张
11:45
of the Mola莫拉 mola莫拉 fish.
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曼波魚的照片
11:47
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
11:49
I also did -- and I don't want to start开始 a little fight斗争 in the next下一个 panel面板 --
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我不想和下一组人马打起来,
11:52
but I did a Google谷歌 Share分享 analysis分析 of evolution演化 and natural自然 selection选择.
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但我在Google Share中做了一个进化与物竞天择的分析
11:55
So right here -- now this is a big category类别, you have smaller percentages百分比,
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你可以看到,由于这是个很大的范畴,所以只得到很小的百分比。
12:00
so this is 0.7 percent百分 -- Dan Dennett丹尼特, who'll谁就会 be speaking请讲 shortly不久.
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Dan Dennett(美国感知哲学教授)占0.7%,他等会儿会登台演说。
12:05
Right below下面 him, 0.5 percent百分, Steven史蒂芬 Pinker平克.
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在他之后,Steven Pinker(美国心理学届大牛)占0.5%
12:10
So Dennett's丹尼特的 in the lead a little bit there.
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所以Dannett领先一点点。
12:12
But what's interesting有趣 is you can then broaden扩大 the search搜索
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如果把搜索的结果扩展一些,
12:14
and actually其实 see interesting有趣 things and get a sense of what else其他 is out there.
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实际上你会看到一些有趣的搜索结果
12:18
So Gary加里 Bauer鲍尔 is not too far behind背后 --
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比如Gary Bauer(美国政治家,和基督教关系密切)的百分比只落后一点点
12:21
has slightly different不同 theories理论 about evolution演化 and natural自然 selection选择.
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当然他对进化论和自然选择有不同的见解
12:26
And right behind背后 him is L. Ron罗恩 Hubbard哈伯德. So --
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在他下面就是L. Ron Hubbard(美国的李大师),所以。。。
12:29
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
12:31
you can see we're in the ascot阿斯科特, which哪一个 is always good.
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我们好像置身于赛马场,
12:33
And by the way, Chris克里斯, that would've会一直 been a really good panel面板,
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多说一句,克里斯,这会是非常好的一组演讲者。
12:35
I think, right there.
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我想,现在...
12:36
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
12:41
Hubbard哈伯德 apparently显然地 started开始 to reach达到, but besides除了 that,
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除了这,Hubbard显然已经开始着手准备了。
12:43
I think it would be good next下一个 year.
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我想明年的大会将很有趣
12:45
Another另一个 quick thing -- this is a slightly different不同 thing,
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另外一件事,和这个主题有点不同的事
12:47
but this analysis分析 some of you may可能 have seen看到.
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你们可能已经看过这个分析报告。
12:49
It just came来了 out. This is bursty突发 words,
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它才被发表。就是关于热门词。
12:51
looking at the historical历史的 record记录 of State of the Union联盟 Addresses地址.
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关于历届美国国情咨文的演说的热门词。
12:56
So these are words that suddenly突然 start开始 to appear出现 out of nowhere无处,
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这些次不知从哪里突然冒出来的
13:00
so they're kind of, you know, memes模因 that start开始 taking服用 off,
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好像随机显示储存的信息似的。
13:02
that didn't have a lot of historical历史的 precedent先例 before.
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却在历史上没有什么先例。
13:05
So the first one is -- these are the bursty突发 words around 1860s --
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第一组,这是1860年热门词。
13:08
slaves奴隶, emancipation解放, slavery奴隶制度, rebellion暴动, Kansas堪萨斯.
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奴隶,解放,奴隶制,反抗,堪萨斯
13:11
That's Britney布兰妮 Spears布兰妮. I mean, you know, OK, interesting有趣.
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这是那个年代的‘艳照门’(2008搜索热门词)。
13:13
They're talking about slavery奴隶制度 in 1860.
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1860年他们关心的是奴隶制,很有趣。
13:15
1935 -- relief浮雕, depression萧条, recovery复苏 banks银行.
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1935年,解脱,抑郁,银行业复苏
13:18
And OK, I didn't learn学习 anything new there as well -- that's pretty漂亮 obvious明显.
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我没有了解到什么新的东西,因为这太显而易见了。
13:21
1985, right at the center中央 of the Reagan里根 years年份 --
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1985年,里根执政期间,
13:25
that's, we're, there's, we've我们已经, it's.
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‘那是’、‘我们是’、’这里是‘、‘我们曾经’、‘它是’
13:28
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
13:30
Now, there's one way to interpret this, which哪一个 is to say that
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用一种方式来解读它们
13:33
"emancipation解放" and "depression萧条" and "recovery复苏" all have a lot of syllables音节.
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就是‘解放’、‘抑郁’、‘复苏’这些词都有很多音节
13:36
So you know, you can actually其实 download下载 -- it's hard to remember记得 those.
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可以下载存储,但很难人为的记住它们。
13:41
But seriously认真地, actually其实, what you can see there,
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但另一方面,你可以看到
13:43
in a way that would be very hard to detect检测 otherwise除此以外,
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当然这方面很难察觉到的
13:45
is Reagan里根 reinventing重塑 the political政治 language语言 of the country国家
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是里根重新改造这个国家的政治语言。
13:48
and shifting to a much more intimate亲密, much more folksy平易近人, much more telegenic上镜 --
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逐步过渡到更亲切,更简单,更适于广播
13:52
contracting承包 all those verbs动词.
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的口语动词
13:54
You know, 20 years年份 before it was still, "Ask not what you can do,"
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20年前,大家喜欢嚷嚷着‘不要问国家为你做了什么...’(肯尼迪总统的名言)
13:56
but with Reagan里根, it's, "that's where, there's Nancy南希 and I," that kind of language语言.
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但里根却喜欢用 ‘那是’、‘那是’、这里有南希和我‘,这类的语句。
14:01
And so something we kind of knew知道,
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我们也许知道这些
14:04
but you didn't actually其实 notice注意 syntactically语法 what he was doing.
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但你根本不会在语法上注意到他是这样使用的。
14:06
I'll go very quickly很快.
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我会说的非常快。
14:08
The question now -- and this is the really interesting有趣 question --
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现在的问题是,这是一个相当有趣的问题:
14:10
is, what kind of higher-level更高层次 shape形状 is emerging新兴 right now
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怎样的一种更高级的形态
14:14
in the overall总体 Web卷筒纸 ecosystem生态系统 -- and particularly尤其 in the ecosystem生态系统 of the blogs博客
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正在兴起在整个网络生态系统中,特别是在博客的生态系统中
14:18
because they are really kind of at the cutting切割 edge边缘.
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因为它们似乎真正处在最前沿
14:21
And I think what happens发生 there will also happen发生 in the wider更宽的 system系统.
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我认为发生在博客界的事,将来也会发生在外部的系统中。
14:23
Now there was a very interesting有趣 article文章 by Clay粘土 Shirky舍基
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克莱·舍基(写《未来是湿的》的那位帅哥)写了一篇很有趣的文章
14:26
that got a lot of attention注意 about a month ago,
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在近一个月内吸引了很多眼球,
14:28
and this is basically基本上 the distribution分配 of links链接
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之后这篇文章分散出很多网络链接
14:30
on the web卷筒纸 to all these various各个 different不同 blogs博客.
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链接到不同的博客上。
14:35
It follows如下 a power功率 law, so that there are a few少数 extremely非常 well-linked以及联 to, popular流行 blogs博客,
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它也遵循了冪次法则(长尾理论和80/20定律的数学原理),因此少数出名的博客被大量很多链接,
14:40
and a long tail尾巴 of blogs博客 with very few少数 links链接.
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而大部分博客只被极少链接。
14:44
So 20 percent百分 of the blogs博客 get 80 percent百分 of the links链接.
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所以20%的博客有拥有80%的链接
14:47
Now this is a very interesting有趣 thing.
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这是一件有趣的事©
14:49
It's caused造成 a lot of controversy争议
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也引起许多争议
14:51
because people thought that this was the ultimate最终 kind of one man,
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因为人们认为互联网是一种现代民主的终极形式,
14:53
one modem调制解调器 democracy民主, where anybody任何人 can get out there and get their voice语音 heard听说.
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每个人在其中都可以发出自己的声音并让这个世界听到。
14:57
And so the question is, "Why is this happening事件?"
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所以我们不仅会问,‘这样的现象为什么会发生?’
14:59
It's not being存在 imposed征收 by fiat菲亚特 from above以上.
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这不是外界强加的秩序,
15:03
It's an emergent应急 property属性 of the blogosphere博客 right now.
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而是当今博客界出现的一种涌现现象。
15:06
Now, what's great about it is that people are working加工 on --
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现在,很棒现象就是人们持续的作着贡献。
15:09
within seconds of Clay粘土 publishing出版 this piece, people started开始 working加工 on changing改变
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在克莱·舍基发表那篇文章几秒钟后,人们开始持续改变
15:14
the underlying底层 rules规则 of the system系统 so that a different不同 shape形状 would start开始 appearing出现.
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系统的潜在规则,因此一个不同的形状开始呈现。
15:17
And basically基本上, the shape形状 appears出现
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这样的形状出现的原因是
15:19
largely大部分 because of a kind of a first-mover第一个动的 advantage优点.
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基于先下手为强的原则。
15:21
if you're the first site现场 there, everybody每个人 links链接 to you.
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如果你是第一个站点,每个人都会链接到你。
15:23
If you're the second第二 site现场 there, most people link链接 to you.
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如果你是第二个,大多数人都会链接到你。
15:25
And so very quickly很快 you can accumulate积累 a bunch of links链接,
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你可以在很短时间内积累一大堆链接,
15:28
and it makes品牌 it more likely容易 for newcomers新人 to link链接 to you in the future未来,
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并使得未来的新进者很有可能也链接到你的站点上。
15:30
and then you get this kind of shape形状.
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然后我们可以看到这样的形状出现。
15:32
And so what Dave戴夫 Sifry希夫瑞 at TechnoratiTechnorati的 started开始 working加工 on,
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大卫·西弗里 (Technorati的创始人)在Technorati开始做的
15:35
literally按照字面 as Shirky舍基 started开始 -- after he published发表 his piece --
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就是在克莱·舍基发表那篇文章之后
15:38
was something that basically基本上 just gave a new kind of priority优先 to newcomers新人.
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把链接优先权给新来者。
15:42
And he started开始 looking at interesting有趣 newcomers新人 that don't have a lot of links链接,
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他开始着眼于一些没有太多链接的新来者
15:45
that suddenly突然 get a bunch of links链接 in the last 24 hours小时.
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随之这些新来者在24小时内获得大堆链接。
15:49
So in a sense, bursty突发 weblogs博客 coming未来 from new voices声音.
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所以在某种意义上,热门的博客来自于新人。
15:52
So he's working加工 on a tool工具 right there that can actually其实 change更改 the overall总体 system系统.
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因此他实际在开发一种可以改变整个体系的工具
15:57
And it creates创建 a kind of planned计划 emergence紧急情况.
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一种预设的涌现现象
15:59
You're not totally完全 in control控制,
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虽然你依旧不能完全控制,
16:01
but you're changing改变 the underlying底层 rules规则 in interesting有趣 ways方法
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但是你在从有趣的方式改变着游戏规则
16:03
because you have an end结束 result结果 which哪一个 is
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因为你最终看到的也许
16:05
maybe a more democratic民主的 spread传播 of voices声音.
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是一个更民主的方式传播大众的声音。
16:07
So the most amazing惊人 thing about this -- and I'll end结束 on this note注意 --
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所以这件事最牛逼的地方在于,我的演说会结束在这里
16:09
is, most emergent应急 systems系统, most self-organizing自组织 systems系统
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这样最具涌现性,最有内在组织性的系统
16:12
are not made制作 up of component零件 parts部分 that are capable of looking at the overall总体 pattern模式
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却不存在特定的组成部分和具有窥探到博客链接形成的型态全貌的能力。
16:17
and changing改变 their behavior行为 based基于 on whether是否 they like the pattern模式 or not.
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并基于喜欢这个形状与否去相应的改变他们的行为
16:21
So the most wonderful精彩 thing, I think, about this whole整个 debate辩论
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所以关于这场讨论,最爽的事情
16:23
about power功率 laws法律 and software软件 that could change更改 it
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如果幂法则和软件可以改变它
16:25
is the fact事实 that we're having the conversation会话.
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就是事实上我们正在对话
16:28
I hope希望 it continues继续 here.
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我希望对话从这里继续下去
16:30
Thanks谢谢 a lot.
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非常感谢
Translated by Ray Chen
Reviewed by Tony Yet

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Johnson - Writer
Steven Berlin Johnson examines the intersection of science, technology and personal experience.

Why you should listen

Steven Johnson is a leading light of today's interdisciplinary and collaborative approach to innovation. His writings have influenced everything from cutting-edge ideas in urban planning to the battle against 21st-century terrorism. Johnson was chosen by Prospect magazine as one of the top ten brains of the digital future, and The Wall Street Journal calls him "one of the most persuasive advocates for the role of collaboration in innovation."

Johnson's work on the history of innovation inspired the Emmy-nominated six-part series on PBS, "How We Got To Now with Steven Johnson," which aired in the fall of 2014. The book version of How We Got To Now was a finalist for the PEN/E.O. Wilson Literary Science Writing Award. His new book, Wonderland: How Play Made the Modern World, revolves around the creative power of play and delight: ideas and innovations that set into motion many momentous changes in science, technology, politics and society. 

Johnson is also the author of the bestselling Where Good Ideas Come From: The Natural History of Innovation, one of his many books celebrating progress and innovation. Others include The Invention of Air and The Ghost Map. Everything Bad Is Good For You, one of the most discussed books of 2005, argued that the increasing complexity of modern media is training us to think in more complex ways. Emergence and Future Perfect explore the power of bottom-up intelligence in both nature and contemporary society.

An innovator himself, Johnson has co-created three influential sites: the pioneering online magazine FEED, the Webby-Award-winning community site, Plastic.com, and the hyperlocal media site outside.in, which was acquired by AOL in 2011.

Johnson is a regular contributor to WIRED magazine, as well as the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and many other periodicals. He has appeared on many high-profile television programs, including "The Charlie Rose Show," "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" and "The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer."


More profile about the speaker
Steven Johnson | Speaker | TED.com