TED2003
Steven Johnson: The Web as a city
史蒂夫.约翰逊：互联网就像一个城市
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史蒂夫.约翰逊说互联网就像一个城市：许多人曾参与它的修建，但没有人能完全控制它，其内的各个部分错综复杂的相互联系却又可以独立运行。当灾难在一处发生发生，别处的生活依然继续。
Steven Johnson - Writer
Steven Berlin Johnson examines the intersection of science, technology and personal experience. Full bio
Steven Berlin Johnson examines the intersection of science, technology and personal experience. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
I want to take you back basically to my hometown,
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我想先让你们看看我居住的地方
00:21
and to a picture of my hometown of the week
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及那地方的一张照片
00:23
that "Emergence" came out.
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拍摄于我的书《涌现现象：蚂蚁、大脑、城市、和电脑软件的生命连接》（以下简称《涌现现象》）出版的那一周
00:25
And it's a picture we've seen several times.
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其实这是一张我们见过多次的照片
00:33
Basically, "Emergence" was published on 9/11.
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因为《涌现现象》正好在9.11那一天出版
00:36
I live right there in the West Village,
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我就住在这儿，西村（一个曼哈顿的街区，以波希米亚风格出名）
00:41
so the plume was luckily blowing west, away from us.
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事故造成的巨大烟雾向西边飘去，所幸远离了我住的地方。
00:46
We had a two-and-a-half-day-old baby in the house that was ours --
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那时我们家刚有一个出生2天半的婴儿。这当然是我们的孩子，
00:53
we hadn't taken it from somebody else.
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不是从别人那儿带走的。
00:55
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
00:57
And one of the thoughts that I had dealing with these two separate emergences
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我当时需要同时处理新书和新生儿这两件不同的事，
01:04
of a book and a baby, and having this event happen so close --
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而发生911的地方离我这么近，
01:08
that my first thought, when I was still kind of in the apartment looking out at it all
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当我从我家公寓王望出去
01:12
or walking out on the street and looking out on it just in front of our building,
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或者在公寓前面的街道边看出去，
01:15
was that I'd made a terrible miscalculation in the book that I'd just written.
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我的第一个念头是：完了，我刚在新书中提出一个很糟糕的论断。
01:20
Because so much of that book was a celebration of the power
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因为那本书花了很多笔墨去赞扬人口高密度的力量
01:24
and creative potential of density, of largely urban density,
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和创新潜能，准确的说是城市人口的高密度。
01:28
of connecting people and putting them together in one place,
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赞扬它把人们联系起来并置于同一场所
01:31
and putting them on sidewalks together and having them share ideas
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或同一街道，让人们交换信息
01:34
and share physical space together.
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并分享一起相处的物理空间。
01:36
And it seemed to me looking at that -- that tower burning and then falling,
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当看着世贸大厦燃烧和坍塌
01:39
those towers burning and falling -- that in fact, one of the lessons
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对我来说，学到的一课就是
01:41
here was that density kills.
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高人口密度反而会带来伤害
01:43
And that of all the technologies that were exploited
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如果说所以曾被开发的技术
01:46
to make that carnage come into being,
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都是被用在这场人类的悲剧中，
01:51
probably the single group of technologies that cost the most lives
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也许可以让最多生命消失的技术
01:57
were those that enable 50,000 people to live in two buildings
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就是建造出2栋可以同时容纳五万人
02:01
110 stories above the ground.
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并且有110层高的大楼的技术。
02:03
If they hadn't been crowded --
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如果那里不是塞满了人，
02:05
you compare the loss of life at the Pentagon to the Twin Towers,
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你对比一下五角大楼和世贸的死亡人数，
02:08
and you can see that very powerfully.
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就可以意识到高密度的悲剧程度。
02:10
And so I started to think, well, you know, density, density --
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因此我开始想高密度
02:13
I'm not sure if, you know, this was the right call.
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是否是一个正确的提议。我不确定。
02:17
And I kind of ruminated on that for a couple of days.
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好多天里我都陷入这样的沉思
02:20
And then about two days later, the wind started to change a little bit,
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几天后，风向开始变化，
02:24
and you could sense that the air was not healthy.
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依然可以感到空气不是那么干净
02:27
And so even though there were no cars still in the West Village
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即使在西村的街上依然没有半辆车，
02:31
where we lived, my wife sent me out to buy a, you know,
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我老婆还是让我去
02:34
a large air filter at the Bed Bath and Beyond,
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Bed Bath & Beyond (美国家居装饰零售巨头) 买个大点的空气过滤器。
02:38
which was located about 20 blocks away, north.
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最近的店就在20个街区以北。
02:41
And so I went out.
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我只得出门。
02:43
And obviously I'm physically a very strong person, as you can tell -- (Laughter) --
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很显然像我这样体格健壮的人，
02:47
so I wasn't worried about carrying this thing 20 blocks.
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根本不担心提着那鬼东西步行20个街区。
02:50
And I walked out, and this really miraculous thing happened to me
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我出门后发现了巨神奇的事情，
02:54
as I was walking north to buy this air filter,
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在我去买空气净化器的路上
02:57
which was that the streets were completely alive with people.
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发现所有的街道都很有人气。
03:02
There was an incredible -- it was, you know, a beautiful day,
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这很不可思议。那天天气很好，
03:05
as it was for about a week after,
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也是911发生一周后
03:07
and the West Village had never seemed more lively.
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西村从未显得如此有活力过。
03:10
I walked up along Hudson Street --
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我沿着哈德逊街走,
03:12
where Jane Jacobs had lived and written her great book
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简.雅各布斯大妈曾在住那里写出了她那本《美国大城市的死于生》（城市规划专业的必读书，书中简大妈把美国60年代的城市规划批了个底朝天）
03:14
that so influenced what I was writing in "Emergence" --
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那本书也对我的著作《涌现现象》有很大的影响
03:16
past the White Horse Tavern,
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经过白马酒馆 (在五、六十年代以波希米亚风闻名，很多作家，艺术家，及文艺女青常在此闲逛聚会),
03:18
that great old bar where Dylan Thomas drank himself to death,
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狄兰·托马斯（英国超现实主义诗人）曾在这个古老的酒馆喝到挂,
03:21
and the Bleecker Street playground was filled with kids.
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许多孩子在布立克街（曼哈顿著名的夜店街）的儿童乐园玩耍
03:24
And all the people who lived in the neighborhood,
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所有人包括这里的居民
03:26
who owned restaurants and bars in the neighborhood,
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和餐馆酒吧的老板们
03:28
were all out there -- had them all open.
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都钻了出来，所有的餐厅和酒吧也都在营业
03:30
People were out.
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人们都钻了出来。
03:32
There were no cars, so it seemed even better, in some ways.
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街区没有车辆经过，从某种方面来说，甚至更好。
03:34
And it was a beautiful urban day,
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那一天人们有着舒服的城市生活
03:37
and the incredible thing about it was that the city was working.
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另外一件不可思议的就是城市依旧在正常的运转
03:41
The city was there.
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城市依旧存在。
03:43
All the things that make a great city successful
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所有让一个城市变得成功的因素，
03:45
and all the things that make a great city stimulating --
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所有让一个城市变得动感的因素，
03:47
they were all on display there on those streets.
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都在那些街道上一一展现。
03:49
And I thought, well, this is the power of a city.
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我想这就是城市的力量
03:53
I mean, the power of the city --
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我想，
03:55
we talked about cities as being centralized in space,
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当说起城市，我们都认为它们是在空间上集中并逐步中心化。
03:57
but what makes them so strong most of the time
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但是很多时候让城市如此强大
03:59
is they're decentralized in function.
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是它们非中心化的活动
04:01
They don't have a center executive branch that you can take out
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城市没有一个可以让你拿掉的枢纽中心
04:03
and cause the whole thing to fail.
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从而造成所有活动停止
04:05
If they did, it probably was right there at Ground Zero.
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如果真有，它可能就是世贸中心。
04:08
I mean, you know, the emergency bunker was right there,
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我的意思是， 紧急地下防空洞就在那里
04:10
was destroyed by the attacks,
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被袭击所毁灭
04:12
and obviously the damage done to the building and the lives.
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对建筑和生命造成了明显的伤害。
04:14
But nonetheless, just 20 blocks north, two days later,
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但是2天后，在距它以北二十个街区的地方，
04:18
the city had never looked more alive.
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城市好似从未如此的充满活力
04:21
If you'd gone into the minds of the people,
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如果你进入人们的内心
04:23
well, you would have seen a lot of trauma,
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许多心灵的创伤依然尚未平复。
04:25
and you would have seen a lot of heartache,
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许多悲痛依然尚未消失。
04:27
and you would have seen a lot of things that would take a long time to recover.
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人们还需要长时间的恢复。
04:30
But the system itself of this city was thriving.
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但是这个城市自身的系统却在发展壮大。
04:33
So I took heart in seeing that.
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我仔细的想了想
04:36
So I wanted to talk a little bit about the reasons why that works so well,
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我想讲一点关于这个系统运行如此良好的原理
04:42
and how some of those reasons kind of map
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和如何运用这些原理
04:44
on to where the Web is going right now.
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使得互联网发展到今天这个地步。
04:47
The question that I found myself asking to people
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我发现自己在问别人问题时，
04:49
when I was talking about the book afterwards is --
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当我说到这《涌现现象》本书
04:51
when you've talked about emergent behavior,
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当说到涌现现象
04:53
when you've talked about collective intelligence,
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当说到群体智慧
04:55
the best way to get people to kind of wrap their heads around that
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让人们听懂的最好方式
04:57
is to ask, who builds a neighborhood?
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就是用城市作为比喻，询问他们谁造就了这些城市中街区？
05:00
Who decides that Soho should have this personality
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谁让Soho有这样的个性？
05:03
and that the Latin Quarter should have this personality?
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让拉丁区有那样的特点？
05:05
Well, there are some kind of executive decisions,
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固然其中有一些高层的战略决定
05:07
but mostly the answer is -- everybody and nobody.
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但答案却是每个人和没有人
05:09
Everybody contributes a little bit.
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每人都对它们都有一点贡献
05:11
No single person is really the ultimate actor
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却没有人真正是这个街区
05:15
behind the personality of a neighborhood.
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的终极塑造者
05:17
Same thing to the question of, who was keeping the streets alive
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同样的，如果问到，在911的悲剧之后，是谁还让我所居住的社区
05:20
post-9/11 in my neighborhood?
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和街道充满了活力？
05:22
Well, it was the whole city.
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对，就是整个城市本身。
05:24
The whole system kind of working on it,
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整个系统使得它运转
05:26
and everybody contributing a small little part.
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每个人都有一点点贡献。
05:28
And this is increasingly what we're starting to see on the Web
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我们把注意力转移到互联网上，
05:31
in a bunch of interesting ways --
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现在可以看到越来越多有趣的事情。
05:33
most of which weren't around, actually,
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但当《涌现现象》出版之前后，
05:35
except in very experimental things,
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除了某些实验性的东西之外，
05:37
when I was writing "Emergence" and when the book came out.
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这些有趣的事情和现象大多还不具备普遍性。
05:39
So it's been a very optimistic time, I think,
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所以这是一个令人乐观的年代，
05:41
and I want to just talk about a few of those things.
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我只想讲其中的几件事。
05:43
I think that there is effectively a new kind of model of interactivity
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我相信在网络上开始出现了一种
05:47
that's starting to emerge online right now.
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新的互动模式
05:49
And the old one looked like this.
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旧的模式是这样的
05:54
This is not the future King of England, although it looks like it.
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这不是未来英伦之王，虽然看起来像
05:58
It's some guy, it's a GeoCities homepage of some guy that I found online
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这只是一男的，我在GeoCities（一个失败的网络产品，2009雅虎将其关闭）的主页上找到的。
06:01
who's interested, if you look at the bottom, in soccer and Jesus
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在下方你会看到，他对足球和耶稣感兴趣
06:04
and Garth Brooks and Clint Beckham and "my hometown" -- those are his links.
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以及加思·布鲁克斯（美国乡村音乐的天王），Clint Bickham（美国配音演员），还有我的家乡。这些是他网站的链接
06:07
But nothing really says
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毋庸置疑
06:09
this model of interactivity -- which was so exciting and captures the real,
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这种曾让人兴奋而如此真实的互动模式
06:13
the Web Zeitgeist of 1995 -- than
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类似于1995年的网络新潮玩意儿
06:16
"Click here for a picture of my dog."
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不像类似 "看我狗的照片请点这里"
06:18
That is -- you know, there's no sentence
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这里没有任何句子
06:20
that kind of conjures up that period better than that, I think,
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我认为没有比这东西更能唤起对那个时代的想象
06:24
which is that you suddenly have the power to put up a picture of your dog
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因为突然你有能力把你家狗的照片
06:27
and link to it, and somebody reading the page
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链接上互联网，而其他人如果正在网上
06:30
has the power to click on that link or not click on that link.
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也有权力点击或不点击这个链接。
06:33
And, you know, I don't want to belittle that. That, in a sense --
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我不想瞧不起这玩意儿。在某种程度上来说，
06:36
to reference what Jeff was talking about yesterday --
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如果引用杰夫昨天说的话，
06:39
that was, in a sense, the kind of interface electricity that
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这是基本上是一种电子界面
06:41
powered a lot of the explosion of interest in the Web:
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极大的增加了人们对互联网的兴趣。
06:44
that you could put up a link, and somebody could click on it,
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你放上一个链接，其他人就可以去点击它
06:46
and it could take you anywhere you wanted to go.
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你也可以去任何你想去的网站。
06:48
But it's still a very one-to-one kind of relationship.
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但这依然只是一对一的关系
06:50
There's one person putting up the link, and there's another person
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有人放一个链接，其他人在另外一边
06:52
on the other end trying to decide whether to click on it or not.
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决定着点击或不点击
06:57
The new model is much more like this,
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新的模式却更像是这样的
06:59
and we've already seen a couple of references to this.
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我们已经见过好几个例子
07:01
This is what happens when you search "Steven Johnson" on Google.
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当你在Google上搜索史蒂夫.约翰逊的时候，就会这样
07:05
About two months ago, I had the great breakthrough --
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2个月前，我有了巨大的突破
07:09
one of my great, kind of shining achievements --
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我想这会是我最大的成就之一
07:12
which is that my website finally became a top result for "Steven Johnson."
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我的个人网站终于排在了搜索结果的第一位
07:15
There's some theoretical physicist at MIT named Steven Johnson
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这里有个叫史蒂夫.约翰逊的麻省理工理论物理学家
07:21
who has dropped two spots, I'm happy to say.
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他降了两位。我很开心。
07:24
(Laughter)
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（笑）
07:25
And, you know, I mean, I'll look at a couple of things like this,
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我以后还会再做类似的事情。
07:29
but Google is obviously the greatest technology ever invented for navel gazing.
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对于这样的自我陶醉者，Google绝对是迄今最好用的技术
07:33
It's just that there are so many other people in your navel when you gaze.
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只是你会在沉醉中也同时看到很多其他人的名字
07:36
Because effectively, what's happening here,
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因为事实上
07:41
what's creating this page, obviously -- and we all know this,
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创造这个搜索页面的，虽然我们都知道是怎么回事
07:43
but it's worth just thinking about it --
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但是还是值得想一想
07:45
is not some person deciding that I am the number one answer for Steven Johnson,
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并不是某个人。不是他来决定要让我出现在‘史蒂夫.约翰逊’的众多搜索结果中的头一个。
07:49
but rather somehow the entire web of people
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而是所有的网民
07:53
putting up pages and deciding to link to my page or not link to it,
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我架上我的网页，网民决定着点击或不点击。
07:56
and Google just sitting there and running the numbers.
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Google只是在家算着数字而已。
07:59
So there's this collective decision-making that's going on.
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所以这是即时的群体决策。
08:03
This page is effectively, collectively authored by the Web,
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整个互联网的网民集体编著了这个页面
08:06
and Google is just helping us
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Google只是帮助大家
08:08
kind of to put the authorship in one kind of coherent place.
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把这个‘著作’清晰的表现出来。
08:11
Now, they're more innovative -- well, Google's pretty innovative --
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现在它们更创新的，当然Google一直都很具创新性。
08:14
but there are some new twists on this.
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我发现有一些在这基础上的新的技术。
08:17
There's this incredibly interesting new site -- Technorati --
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有个非常有趣的新网站 - 叫Technorati （一家专门搜索博客的搜索网站）
08:19
that's filled with lots of little widgets that are expanding on these.
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充满了各种网络小应用程序并逐步扩展他们。
08:23
And these are looking in the blog world and the world of weblogs.
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它关注的是整个博客世界。
08:27
He's analyzed basically all the weblogs out there that he's tracking.
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简单的说，就是分析他追踪所有博客
08:31
And he's tracking how many other weblogs linked to those weblogs,
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同时也追踪有多少其他博客链接到之前所追踪的博客。
08:34
and so you have kind of an authority --
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因此得出一个所谓的权威榜
08:36
a weblog that has a lot of links to it
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一个被其他博客链接许多次的博客
08:38
is more authoritative than a weblog that has few links to it.
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比一个只被链接几次而已的博客更具权威性。
08:43
And so at any given time, on any given page on the Web, actually,
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所以在任何时间，任何网页上，
08:45
you can say, what does the weblog community think about this page?
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如果你想知道博客界如何看待这个网页。
08:48
And you can get a list.
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你就可以得到这份列表。
08:50
This is what they think about my site; it's ranked by blog authority.
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这里可以看到博客界如何看我的网站 - 这是根据博客权威性的排名
08:53
You can also rank it by the latest posts.
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也可以根据更新的帖子排名
08:55
So when I was talking in "Emergence,"
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在《涌现现象》中
08:58
I talked about the limitations of the one-way linking architecture
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我提到单向链接的局限性
09:00
that, basically, you could link to somebody else
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基本上就是你可以链接到任何人
09:02
but they wouldn't necessarily know that you were pointing to them.
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但他们却对你的连接毫不知情。
09:04
And that was one of the reasons why the web
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这也是为什么互联网
09:07
wasn't quite as emergent as it could be
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还不具备本该有的涌现性。
09:09
because you needed two-way linking, you needed that kind of feedback mechanism
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因为只有双向的链接和互动机制
09:11
to be able to really do interesting things.
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才能真正做到一些牛逼的事情。
09:13
Well, something like Technorati is supplying that.
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因此像Technorati类似的网站提供了这样服务
09:16
Now what's interesting here is that this is a quote from Dave Weinberger,
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这里有段来自大卫•温伯格(美国著名的网络思想家）的话
09:19
where he talks about everything being purposive in the Web --
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他认为所有互联网上的事物都是有目的性的
09:23
there's nothing artificial.
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都是人为而非自然的
09:25
He has this line where he says, you know, you're going to put up a link there,
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他说，如果现在有一个链接在这里
09:27
if you see a link, somebody decided to put it there.
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你看见那个链接是因为另外一个人决定放在这里，
09:30
And he says, the link to one site didn't just grow on the other page "like a tree fungus."
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一个网页的链接不会像树菌一样在另外一个网页上长出来。
09:35
And in fact, I think that's not entirely true anymore.
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但我不认为这个理论完全正确
09:38
I could put up a feed of all those links generated by Technorati
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如果在我主页右边
09:42
on the right-hand side of my page,
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放一个来自Technorati所有链接的订阅点(feed)
09:44
and they would change as the overall ecology of the Web changes.
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它会随着整个互联网的生态变化而变化
09:47
That little list there would change.
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这个列表会变化
09:49
I wouldn't really be directly in control of it.
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我却不能直接按照我的意志控制它
09:51
So it's much closer, in a way, to a data fungus, in a sense,
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在某种程度上来看，这更像一个数据似的真菌
09:54
wrapped around that page, than it is to a deliberate link that I've placed there.
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在我的网页上不断的生长，而非一个我刻意放在这边并由我操控的的链接
10:00
Now, what you're having here is basically a global brain
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这基本上就是个全球脑（地球是一个脑，每个人是一个神经元的理论）
10:03
that you're able to do lots of kind of experiments on to see what it's thinking.
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基于此你可以做很多不同的实验，看看这个‘脑’在想些什么。
10:06
And there are all these interesting tools.
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现在有很多好玩的工具
10:08
Google does the Google Zeitgeist,
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Google开发了Google Zeitgeist (google网络查询分析程序，分析搜索的关键词和热门网站）
10:10
which looks at search requests to test what's going on, what people are interested in,
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可以通过搜索的信息观察发生的事情和人们的喜好
10:15
and they publish it with lots of fun graphs.
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最后发布一些有趣的数据图像。
10:17
And I'm saying a lot of nice things about Google,
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我一直在为Google背书，
10:19
so I'll be I'll be saying one little critical thing.
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但现在我要提出一点批评
10:20
There's a problem with the Google Zeitgeist,
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Google Zeitgeist的一个问题
10:22
which is it often comes back with news that a lot of people are searching
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就是通过它得到的信息往往都是众人都在搜索
10:26
for Britney Spears pictures, which is not necessarily news.
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艳照门的照片，但这已经不是什么新知了。
10:30
The Columbia blows up, suddenly there are a lot of searches on Columbia.
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当哥伦比亚号航天飞机遇难后，突然出现很多关于哥伦比亚号的搜索
10:34
Well, you know, we should expect to see that.
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当然我们可以预估到它的发生
10:36
That's not necessarily something we didn't know already.
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这不是我们以前未知的。
10:38
So the key thing in terms of these new tools
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这些新工具
10:40
that are kind of plumbing the depths of the global brain,
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它们可以探测‘全球脑’的深度
10:43
that are sending kind of trace dyes through that whole bloodstream --
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也可以释放类似于染色原料在血液循环系统中，去追踪和分析趋势。
10:47
the question is, are you finding out something new?
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但问题的关键是，我们是不是可以从中找到一些新的东西？
10:49
And one of the things that I experimented with is this thing called Google Share
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我曾经试过的一个叫GoogleShare的新玩意儿。
10:52
which is basically, you take an abstract term,
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实际上就是你放一个词
10:56
and you search Google for that term,
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在google上搜索,
10:59
and then you search the results that you get back for somebody's name.
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然后把这个词和某人名字再一起搜索。
11:02
So basically, the number of pages that mention this term,
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所以这个词的搜索页面数
11:06
that also mention this page, the percentage of those pages
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和它加了到某人名字的搜索页面数的百分比
11:09
is that person's Google Share of that term.
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即为这个人的关于这个词的GoogleShare.（其实就是这个人和这个词的关联度）
11:11
So you can do kind of interesting contests.
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你可以搞个有趣的比赛
11:13
Like for instance, this is a Google Share of the TED Conference.
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比如TED大会的GoogleShare
11:17
So Richard Saul Wurman
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理查德·沃尔曼（TED大会的创始人）
11:20
has about a 15 percent Google Share of the TED conference.
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拥有15%TED大会的GoogleShare
11:24
Our good friend Chris has about a six percent -- but with a bullet, I might add.
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我们的好朋友克里斯也占有6%，但我也许会加一个小数点
11:29
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
11:31
But the interesting thing is, you can broaden the search a little bit.
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好玩的是，如果你把搜索扩展一点
11:34
And it turns out, actually, that 42 percent is the Mola mola fish.
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会发现曼波魚居然占42%。
11:37
I had no idea.
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我被雷到了。
11:39
No, that's not true.
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你们被忽悠了。
11:40
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
11:43
I made that up because I just wanted to put up a slide
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这是我编的，因为我只想放一张
11:45
of the Mola mola fish.
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曼波魚的照片
11:47
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
11:49
I also did -- and I don't want to start a little fight in the next panel --
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我不想和下一组人马打起来，
11:52
but I did a Google Share analysis of evolution and natural selection.
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但我在Google Share中做了一个进化与物竞天择的分析
11:55
So right here -- now this is a big category, you have smaller percentages,
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你可以看到，由于这是个很大的范畴，所以只得到很小的百分比。
12:00
so this is 0.7 percent -- Dan Dennett, who'll be speaking shortly.
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Dan Dennett（美国感知哲学教授）占0.7%，他等会儿会登台演说。
12:05
Right below him, 0.5 percent, Steven Pinker.
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在他之后，Steven Pinker（美国心理学届大牛）占0.5%
12:10
So Dennett's in the lead a little bit there.
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所以Dannett领先一点点。
12:12
But what's interesting is you can then broaden the search
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如果把搜索的结果扩展一些，
12:14
and actually see interesting things and get a sense of what else is out there.
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实际上你会看到一些有趣的搜索结果
12:18
So Gary Bauer is not too far behind --
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比如Gary Bauer（美国政治家，和基督教关系密切）的百分比只落后一点点
12:21
has slightly different theories about evolution and natural selection.
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当然他对进化论和自然选择有不同的见解
12:26
And right behind him is L. Ron Hubbard. So --
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在他下面就是L. Ron Hubbard（美国的李大师），所以。。。
12:29
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
12:31
you can see we're in the ascot, which is always good.
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我们好像置身于赛马场，
12:33
And by the way, Chris, that would've been a really good panel,
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多说一句，克里斯，这会是非常好的一组演讲者。
12:35
I think, right there.
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我想，现在...
12:36
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
12:41
Hubbard apparently started to reach, but besides that,
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除了这，Hubbard显然已经开始着手准备了。
12:43
I think it would be good next year.
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我想明年的大会将很有趣
12:45
Another quick thing -- this is a slightly different thing,
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另外一件事，和这个主题有点不同的事
12:47
but this analysis some of you may have seen.
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你们可能已经看过这个分析报告。
12:49
It just came out. This is bursty words,
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它才被发表。就是关于热门词。
12:51
looking at the historical record of State of the Union Addresses.
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关于历届美国国情咨文的演说的热门词。
12:56
So these are words that suddenly start to appear out of nowhere,
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这些次不知从哪里突然冒出来的
13:00
so they're kind of, you know, memes that start taking off,
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好像随机显示储存的信息似的。
13:02
that didn't have a lot of historical precedent before.
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却在历史上没有什么先例。
13:05
So the first one is -- these are the bursty words around 1860s --
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第一组，这是1860年热门词。
13:08
slaves, emancipation, slavery, rebellion, Kansas.
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奴隶，解放，奴隶制，反抗，堪萨斯
13:11
That's Britney Spears. I mean, you know, OK, interesting.
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这是那个年代的‘艳照门’（2008搜索热门词）。
13:13
They're talking about slavery in 1860.
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1860年他们关心的是奴隶制，很有趣。
13:15
1935 -- relief, depression, recovery banks.
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1935年，解脱，抑郁，银行业复苏
13:18
And OK, I didn't learn anything new there as well -- that's pretty obvious.
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我没有了解到什么新的东西，因为这太显而易见了。
13:21
1985, right at the center of the Reagan years --
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1985年，里根执政期间，
13:25
that's, we're, there's, we've, it's.
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‘那是’、‘我们是’、’这里是‘、‘我们曾经’、‘它是’
13:28
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
13:30
Now, there's one way to interpret this, which is to say that
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用一种方式来解读它们
13:33
"emancipation" and "depression" and "recovery" all have a lot of syllables.
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就是‘解放’、‘抑郁’、‘复苏’这些词都有很多音节
13:36
So you know, you can actually download -- it's hard to remember those.
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可以下载存储，但很难人为的记住它们。
13:41
But seriously, actually, what you can see there,
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但另一方面，你可以看到
13:43
in a way that would be very hard to detect otherwise,
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当然这方面很难察觉到的
13:45
is Reagan reinventing the political language of the country
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是里根重新改造这个国家的政治语言。
13:48
and shifting to a much more intimate, much more folksy, much more telegenic --
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逐步过渡到更亲切，更简单，更适于广播
13:52
contracting all those verbs.
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的口语动词
13:54
You know, 20 years before it was still, "Ask not what you can do,"
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20年前，大家喜欢嚷嚷着‘不要问国家为你做了什么...’（肯尼迪总统的名言）
13:56
but with Reagan, it's, "that's where, there's Nancy and I," that kind of language.
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但里根却喜欢用 ‘那是’、‘那是’、这里有南希和我‘，这类的语句。
14:01
And so something we kind of knew,
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我们也许知道这些
14:04
but you didn't actually notice syntactically what he was doing.
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但你根本不会在语法上注意到他是这样使用的。
14:06
I'll go very quickly.
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我会说的非常快。
14:08
The question now -- and this is the really interesting question --
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现在的问题是，这是一个相当有趣的问题：
14:10
is, what kind of higher-level shape is emerging right now
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怎样的一种更高级的形态
14:14
in the overall Web ecosystem -- and particularly in the ecosystem of the blogs
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正在兴起在整个网络生态系统中，特别是在博客的生态系统中
14:18
because they are really kind of at the cutting edge.
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因为它们似乎真正处在最前沿
14:21
And I think what happens there will also happen in the wider system.
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我认为发生在博客界的事，将来也会发生在外部的系统中。
14:23
Now there was a very interesting article by Clay Shirky
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克莱·舍基（写《未来是湿的》的那位帅哥）写了一篇很有趣的文章
14:26
that got a lot of attention about a month ago,
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在近一个月内吸引了很多眼球，
14:28
and this is basically the distribution of links
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之后这篇文章分散出很多网络链接
14:30
on the web to all these various different blogs.
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链接到不同的博客上。
14:35
It follows a power law, so that there are a few extremely well-linked to, popular blogs,
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它也遵循了冪次法则（长尾理论和80/20定律的数学原理），因此少数出名的博客被大量很多链接，
14:40
and a long tail of blogs with very few links.
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而大部分博客只被极少链接。
14:44
So 20 percent of the blogs get 80 percent of the links.
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所以20%的博客有拥有80%的链接
14:47
Now this is a very interesting thing.
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这是一件有趣的事©
14:49
It's caused a lot of controversy
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也引起许多争议
14:51
because people thought that this was the ultimate kind of one man,
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因为人们认为互联网是一种现代民主的终极形式，
14:53
one modem democracy, where anybody can get out there and get their voice heard.
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每个人在其中都可以发出自己的声音并让这个世界听到。
14:57
And so the question is, "Why is this happening?"
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所以我们不仅会问，‘这样的现象为什么会发生？’
14:59
It's not being imposed by fiat from above.
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这不是外界强加的秩序，
15:03
It's an emergent property of the blogosphere right now.
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而是当今博客界出现的一种涌现现象。
15:06
Now, what's great about it is that people are working on --
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现在，很棒现象就是人们持续的作着贡献。
15:09
within seconds of Clay publishing this piece, people started working on changing
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在克莱·舍基发表那篇文章几秒钟后，人们开始持续改变
15:14
the underlying rules of the system so that a different shape would start appearing.
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系统的潜在规则，因此一个不同的形状开始呈现。
15:17
And basically, the shape appears
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这样的形状出现的原因是
15:19
largely because of a kind of a first-mover advantage.
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基于先下手为强的原则。
15:21
if you're the first site there, everybody links to you.
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如果你是第一个站点，每个人都会链接到你。
15:23
If you're the second site there, most people link to you.
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如果你是第二个，大多数人都会链接到你。
15:25
And so very quickly you can accumulate a bunch of links,
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你可以在很短时间内积累一大堆链接，
15:28
and it makes it more likely for newcomers to link to you in the future,
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并使得未来的新进者很有可能也链接到你的站点上。
15:30
and then you get this kind of shape.
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然后我们可以看到这样的形状出现。
15:32
And so what Dave Sifry at Technorati started working on,
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大卫·西弗里 （Technorati的创始人）在Technorati开始做的
15:35
literally as Shirky started -- after he published his piece --
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就是在克莱·舍基发表那篇文章之后
15:38
was something that basically just gave a new kind of priority to newcomers.
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把链接优先权给新来者。
15:42
And he started looking at interesting newcomers that don't have a lot of links,
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他开始着眼于一些没有太多链接的新来者
15:45
that suddenly get a bunch of links in the last 24 hours.
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随之这些新来者在24小时内获得大堆链接。
15:49
So in a sense, bursty weblogs coming from new voices.
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所以在某种意义上，热门的博客来自于新人。
15:52
So he's working on a tool right there that can actually change the overall system.
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因此他实际在开发一种可以改变整个体系的工具
15:57
And it creates a kind of planned emergence.
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一种预设的涌现现象
15:59
You're not totally in control,
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虽然你依旧不能完全控制，
16:01
but you're changing the underlying rules in interesting ways
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但是你在从有趣的方式改变着游戏规则
16:03
because you have an end result which is
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因为你最终看到的也许
16:05
maybe a more democratic spread of voices.
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是一个更民主的方式传播大众的声音。
16:07
So the most amazing thing about this -- and I'll end on this note --
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所以这件事最牛逼的地方在于，我的演说会结束在这里
16:09
is, most emergent systems, most self-organizing systems
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这样最具涌现性，最有内在组织性的系统
16:12
are not made up of component parts that are capable of looking at the overall pattern
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却不存在特定的组成部分和具有窥探到博客链接形成的型态全貌的能力。
16:17
and changing their behavior based on whether they like the pattern or not.
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并基于喜欢这个形状与否去相应的改变他们的行为
16:21
So the most wonderful thing, I think, about this whole debate
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所以关于这场讨论，最爽的事情
16:23
about power laws and software that could change it
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如果幂法则和软件可以改变它
16:25
is the fact that we're having the conversation.
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就是事实上我们正在对话
16:28
I hope it continues here.
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我希望对话从这里继续下去
16:30
Thanks a lot.
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非常感谢
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Johnson - WriterSteven Berlin Johnson examines the intersection of science, technology and personal experience.
Why you should listen
Steven Johnson is a leading light of today's interdisciplinary and collaborative approach to innovation. His writings have influenced everything from cutting-edge ideas in urban planning to the battle against 21st-century terrorism. Johnson was chosen by Prospect magazine as one of the top ten brains of the digital future, and The Wall Street Journal calls him "one of the most persuasive advocates for the role of collaboration in innovation."
Johnson's work on the history of innovation inspired the Emmy-nominated six-part series on PBS, "How We Got To Now with Steven Johnson," which aired in the fall of 2014. The book version of How We Got To Now was a finalist for the PEN/E.O. Wilson Literary Science Writing Award. His new book, Wonderland: How Play Made the Modern World, revolves around the creative power of play and delight: ideas and innovations that set into motion many momentous changes in science, technology, politics and society.
Johnson is also the author of the bestselling Where Good Ideas Come From: The Natural History of Innovation, one of his many books celebrating progress and innovation. Others include The Invention of Air and The Ghost Map. Everything Bad Is Good For You, one of the most discussed books of 2005, argued that the increasing complexity of modern media is training us to think in more complex ways. Emergence and Future Perfect explore the power of bottom-up intelligence in both nature and contemporary society.
An innovator himself, Johnson has co-created three influential sites: the pioneering online magazine FEED, the Webby-Award-winning community site, Plastic.com, and the hyperlocal media site outside.in, which was acquired by AOL in 2011.
Johnson is a regular contributor to WIRED magazine, as well as the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and many other periodicals. He has appeared on many high-profile television programs, including "The Charlie Rose Show," "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" and "The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer."
Steven Johnson | Speaker | TED.com