TED2006
Robert Wright: Progress is not a zero-sum game
罗伯特.怀特谈乐观主义
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作者罗伯特解释了"非零和效应"是如何在机缘与合作的互动中，引导了我们的进化，以及我们应该如何利用它来拯救今天的人类世界。
Robert Wright - Journalist, philosopher
The best-selling author of "Nonzero," "The Moral Animal" and "The Evolution of God," Robert Wright draws on his wide-ranging knowledge of science, religion, psychology, history and politics to figure out what makes humanity tick -- and what makes us moral. Full bio
The best-selling author of "Nonzero," "The Moral Animal" and "The Evolution of God," Robert Wright draws on his wide-ranging knowledge of science, religion, psychology, history and politics to figure out what makes humanity tick -- and what makes us moral. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
I've got apparently 18 minutes
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我大概有18分钟的时间
00:27
to convince you that history has a direction, an arrow;
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来说服你们历史发展是有方向的---如一个箭头。
00:30
that in some fundamental sense, it's good;
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本质上来说，这是个好事。
00:33
that the arrow points to something positive.
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箭头指向着一些积极的事物。
00:36
Now, when the TED people first approached me about giving this upbeat talk --
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当初TED来找我做个乐观的演讲
00:40
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
00:41
-- that was before the cartoon of Muhammad had triggered global rioting.
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-- 那时穆斯林还没有在世界各地引发暴乱
00:47
It was before the avian flu had reached Europe.
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禽流感还未登录欧洲
00:49
It was before Hamas had won the Palestinian election,
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哈马斯还未赢得巴勒斯坦大选
00:51
eliciting various counter-measures by Israel.
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以色列也还未对之采取一系列对抗政策
00:55
And to be honest, if I had known when I was asked to give this upbeat talk
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说实话，如果当初接受邀请时
00:59
that even as I was giving the upbeat talk,
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我能预见知道现在
01:02
the apocalypse would be unfolding --
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老天还没打开启示录的话
01:05
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
01:06
-- I might have said, "Is it okay if I talk about something else?"
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我也许会说，“我能不能说点别的？”
01:10
But I didn't, OK. So we're here. I'll do what I can. I'll do what I can.
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不过我当时没说，那么好吧，我只能尽力试试看了。
01:16
I've got to warn you:
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我必须先警告你们
01:18
the sense in which my worldview is upbeat has always been kind of subtle,
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我世界观的积极意义很难被理解
01:25
sometimes even elusive.
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甚至可以说是晦涩难懂
01:27
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
01:28
The sense in which I can be uplifting and inspiring --
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当我说：“我可以变得很乐观“，
01:31
I mean, there's always been a kind of a certain grim dimension
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我想，我尝试去乐观这件事
01:34
to the way I try to uplift, so if grim inspiration --
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本来就带着点悲观色彩，所以-
01:38
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
01:39
-- if grim inspiration is not a contradiction in terms, that is, I'm afraid,
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--如果“悲观的乐观主义精神“不算自相矛盾的话，恐怕
01:43
the most you can hope for. OK, today -- that's if I succeed.
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这就是今天你们可以从我这儿得到的，最乐观的东西了。
01:47
I'll see what I can do. OK?
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我会尽力的。
01:49
Now, in one sense,
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首先，
01:51
the claim that history has a direction is not that controversial.
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历史发展有一定方向性这个观点，不会引起太多异议。
01:54
If you're just talking about social structure,
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比如我们来看看社会的结构
01:57
OK, clearly that's gotten more complex
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很显然，在过去的一万年里
01:59
a little over the last 10,000 years -- has reached higher and higher levels.
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社会结构越来越复杂，也越来越高级
02:02
And in fact, that's actually sustaining
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事实上，
02:04
a long-standing trend that predates human beings, OK,
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这个远期的趋势在人类出现之前就定好了
02:08
that biological evolution was doing for us.
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这是生物进化的客观规律所决定的
02:11
Because what happened in the beginning, this stuff encases itself in a cell,
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生命起源，从一个细胞开始，
02:16
then cells start hanging out together in societies.
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然后细胞们逐渐成群结队了
02:19
Eventually they get so close, they form multicellular organisms,
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最后它们彼此亲近，构成了多细胞组织
02:22
then you get complex multicellular organisms; they form societies.
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然后有了更复杂些的多细胞组织；这可以理解为社群的一种形式。
02:27
But then at some point, one of these multicellular organisms
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某个时间点，某一个多细胞组织
02:30
does something completely amazing with this stuff, which is
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发生了一些奇妙的事情
02:33
it launches a whole second kind of evolution: cultural evolution.
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启动了一种全新的进化过程：文化进化。
02:38
And amazingly, that evolution sustains the trajectory
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更奇妙的是，这种进化所遵循的轨迹
02:41
that biological evolution had established toward greater complexity.
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与生物进化是一致的---越来越复杂
02:46
By cultural evolution we mean the evolution of ideas.
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文化进化，是指思想的演化过程。
02:49
A lot of you have heard the term "memes." The evolution of technology,
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你们中的很多人都听说过“文化基因“这个词。
02:52
I pay a lot of attention to, so, you know,
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一直以来，我还很关注技术进化，
02:54
one of the first things you got was a little hand axe.
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我们从一把小小的斧片开始，
02:58
Generations go by, somebody says, hey, why don't we put it on a stick?
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代代相传，直到某人说，我们为什么不把斧片安在棍子上呢？
03:03
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
03:06
Just absolutely delights the little ones.
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这大大方便了那些个子比较矮的人。
03:09
Next best thing to a video game.
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另一个例子，电视游戏。
03:11
This may not seem to impress,
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看上去它好像没什么了不起的。
03:13
but technological evolution is progressive, so another 10, 20,000 years,
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但是技术进化是一个持续的过程，所以过了一两万年，
03:17
and armaments technology takes you here.
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到今天，我们拥有了强大的武器装备。
03:19
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
03:20
Impressive. And the rate of technological evolution speeds up,
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技术进化也是一个加速进化，
03:24
so a mere quarter of a century after this, you get this, OK.
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所以再过250年，我们有了这个。
03:28
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
03:30
And this.
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还有这个。
03:32
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
03:33
I'm sorry -- it was a cheap laugh, but I wanted to find a way
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不好意思--这个笑话很冷，我只是
03:36
to transition back to this idea of the unfolding apocalypse,
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想找到一种解释默示录的方法，
03:39
and I thought that might do it.
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我以为讲些笑话能有些帮助。
03:41
(Applause)
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（掌声）
03:48
So, what threatens to happen with this unfolding apocalypse
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当今世界社会体系的崩溃，
03:53
is the collapse of global social organization.
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冥冥中预示着默示录的秘密
03:57
Now, first let me remind you how much work it took to get us where we are,
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首先，我们来看看，世界上的社会体系
04:00
to be on the brink of true global social organization.
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是如何演化到今天的样子的。
04:03
Originally, you had the most complex societies, the hunter-gatherer village.
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起初，是一个复杂的、靠狩猎与采集维生的村落。
04:09
Stonehenge is the remnant of a chiefdom,
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然后是酋长社会，代表遗迹---巨石阵，
04:11
which is what you get with the invention of agriculture: multi-village polity
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在酋长社会，出现了农业，这是一种
04:14
with centralized rule.
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有中央集权的多村落群体制。
04:17
With the invention of writing, you start getting cities. This is blurry. I kind of like that
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随着书写的发明，城市出现了。这个关系看上去有点牵强。但是我很喜欢，
04:22
because it makes it look like a one-celled organism and reminds you
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整个过程就像刚才所讲的单细胞组织的进化过程，
04:25
how many levels organic organization has already moved through
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有机体经过层层演化，
04:29
to get to this point. And then you get to, you know, you get empires.
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才成了今天的样子。接下来的，你们一定猜到，是帝国。
04:35
I want to stress, you know, social organization can transcend political bounds.
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我必须强调一下，社会组织是不受政治界限约束的。
04:39
This is the Silk Road connecting the Chinese Empire and the Roman Empire.
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丝绸之路，贯通了古中国与古罗马帝国。
04:43
So you had social complexity spanning the whole continent,
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我们在整片亚欧大陆上看到了一致的社会属性，
04:46
even if no polity did similarly. Today, you've got nation states.
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即使政体不同。今天，有那么多国家，
04:51
Point is: there's obviously collaboration and organization going on
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但很显然，各种组织与合作蓬勃发展着，
04:54
beyond national bounds.
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超越了国界。
04:56
This is actually just a picture of the earth at night,
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这张图片显示了深夜里地球的样子，
04:59
and I'm just putting it up because I think it's pretty.
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我认为它非常漂亮，
05:01
Does kind of convey the sense that this is an integrated system.
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传递着一种整体感。
05:06
Now, I explained this growth of complexity by reference to something
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现在，我要用“非零和效应“
05:12
called "non-zero sumness."
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来解释这类演化。
05:16
Assuming that a few of you did not do the assigned reading, very quickly,
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考虑到有些人可能没有看过阅读资料，
05:21
the key idea is the distinction between zero-sum games, in which correlations
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在零和博弈中，博弈者的关系是对立的：
05:26
are inverse: always a winner and a loser.
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一个赢家，一个输家。
05:29
Non-zero-sum games in which correlations can be positive, OK.
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而非零和博弈，这种关系可以是双赢的。
05:33
So like in tennis, usually it's win-lose;
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就像在网球赛中，通常是有输赢的，
05:37
it always adds up to zero-zero-sum. But if you're playing doubles,
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比分总是零和的，但是在双打赛中，
05:40
the person on your side of the net, they're in the same boat as you,
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你的搭档，与你站在同一战线，
05:42
so you're playing a non-zero-sum game with them.
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因此你与你的搭档之间，是一种非零和游戏。
05:44
It's either for the better or for the worse, OK.
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你们总是有福同享，有难同当。
05:47
A lot of forms of non-zero-sum behavior in the realm of economics and so on
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在经济学领域，非零和博弈
05:52
in everyday life often leads to cooperation.
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往往会带来合作。
05:56
The argument I make is basically that, well,
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我想说的是，
05:58
non-zero-sum games have always been part of life.
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非零和博弈始终是我们生活的一部分。
06:00
You have them in hunter-gatherer societies,
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在人类采集狩猎的时代，就有非零和博弈。
06:02
but then through technological evolution, new forms of technology arise
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然而随着技术进步，新的技术不断兴起，
06:07
that facilitate or encourage the playing of non-zero-sum games,
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促进了非零和博弈的发生。
06:12
involving more people over larger territory.
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参与其中的博弈者，其分布也越来越广。
06:15
Social structure adapts to accommodate this possibility and
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为了适应这种可能性，社会的结构不断改变，
06:19
to harness this productive potential, so you get cities, you know,
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来保证我们有这样的生产潜力，所以出现了你所熟知的城市，
06:22
and you get all the non-zero-sum games you don't think about
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以及你所不熟知的非零和博弈，
06:25
that are being played across the world.
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你可能并未意识到非零和博弈在世界每个角落都在发生。
06:26
Like, have you ever thought when you buy a car,
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举个例子，当你买车的时候，
06:29
how many people on how many different continents contributed
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你有没有想过，有多少身处各大洲的人，
06:31
to the manufacture of that car? Those are people in effect
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涉及了这辆车的制造过程？这些相关人士，
06:36
you're playing a non-zero-sum game with.
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就是你进行非零和游戏的对象。
06:38
I mean, there are certainly plenty of them around.
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显然，他们人数众多。
06:45
Now, this sounds like an intrinsically upbeat worldview in a way,
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某种程度上来讲，这实际上是一种非常j积极乐观的世界观，
06:48
because when you think of non-zero, you think win-win, you know,
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因为当你提到零和时，你所考虑的是双赢的结果，
06:51
that's good. Well, there are a few reasons
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这很不错。不过，我也认为，
06:53
that actually it's not intrinsically upbeat.
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本质上，它也并不是那么令人乐观。
06:56
First of all, it can accommodate; it doesn't deny the existence
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首先，它并没有否定
07:00
of inequality exploitation war.
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不平等的剥削战争的存在。
07:03
But there's a more fundamental reason
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还有一个更深层的原因，
07:05
that it's not intrinsically upbeat, because a non-zero-sum game,
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因为非零和博弈，
07:08
all it tells you for sure is that the fortunes will be correlated for better or worse.
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它只能保证结果要么是都好，要么是都坏，
07:12
It doesn't necessarily predict a win-win outcome.
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它不能保证最后的结果是双赢的。
07:18
So, in a way, the question is: on what grounds
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那么，我到底凭什么
07:20
am I upbeat at all about history? And the answer is,
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对整个历史进程保持乐观的态度呢？答案如下，
07:24
first of all, on balance I would say people have played their games
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第一，总的来说，我认为
07:28
to more win-win outcomes than lose-lose outcomes. On balance,
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人们总是能更多的得到双赢结果。
07:32
I think history is a net positive in the non-zero-sum game department.
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我认为历史进程，在非零和博弈里，净结果是正的。
07:38
And a testament to this is the thing that most amazes me,
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对这个结论，有一个最令我惊异的实际证明，
07:43
most impresses me, and most uplifts me,
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它给我留下了深刻的印象，也非常激励我：
07:45
which is that there is a moral dimension to history;
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历史进程，本身包含了一个道德维度，
07:50
there is a moral arrow. We have seen moral progress over time.
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存在一个道德指向。可以看到，道德也是随着时间而发展的。
07:53
2,500 years ago, members of one Greek city-state
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2500年钱，希腊城邦里的人，
07:57
considered members of another Greek city-state subhuman
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认为其他希腊城邦里的人，都是次等人，
08:00
and treated them that way. And then this moral revolution arrived,
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用对待此等人的方式对待他们。随着道德革命的开始，
08:05
and they decided that actually, no, Greeks are human beings.
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他们改变了主意，所有的希腊人都是人类。
08:09
It's just the Persians who aren't fully human
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只有波斯人是次等人，
08:12
and don't deserve to be treated very nicely.
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不应该对他们太好了，
08:14
But this was progress -- you know, give them credit. And now today,
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但这至少是个进步--呵呵，给希腊人一个小表扬。今天，
08:17
we've seen more progress. I think -- I hope -- most people here would say
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这个进步就更大了。我认为--我也希望--在座的大部分人，
08:20
that all people everywhere are human beings,
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都会承认，世界各地的人都是同类，
08:23
deserve to be treated decently,
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所有人都应该被平等对待，
08:26
unless they do something horrendous, regardless of race or religion.
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除非他们做了令人厌恶的事情，不论什么种族什么宗教。
08:30
And you have to read your ancient history to realize what a revolution that has been,
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你应该去读读古代史，然后才能明白这是怎样一个革命。
08:34
OK. This was not a prevalent view,
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这个观点并未被广泛接受，
08:36
few thousand years ago, and I attribute it to this non-zero-sum dynamic.
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我认为正式因为非零和效应，几千年前的人类，
08:41
I think that's the reason there is as much tolerance toward nationalities,
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就学会了包容国籍、
08:45
ethnicities, religions as there is today. If you asked me,
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种族和宗教方面的差异，这与现在的情况无异。如果你问我，
08:50
you know, why am I not in favor of bombing Japan,
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为什么我不支持向日本投放原子弹，
08:52
well, I'm only half-joking when I say they built my car.
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如果我说那是因为日本人造了我的车，那是半开玩笑的。
08:55
We have this non-zero-sum relationship,
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我们之间存在一种非零和关系，
08:57
and I think that does lead to a kind of a tolerance to the extent that you realize
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我认为，这种关系确实促进我们彼此包容，
09:03
that someone else's welfare is positively correlated with yours --
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因为其他人的福利确实与你的福利正相关。
09:07
you're more likely to cut them a break.
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你可能更愿意给他们一个机会。
09:09
I kind of think this is a kind of a business-class morality.
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我想这是一种商务仓的道德准则。
09:14
Unfortunately, I don't fly trans-Atlantic business class often enough
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不幸的是，我不常坐trans-Atlantics公司的商务仓，
09:18
to know, or any other kind of business class really,
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也真不太了解其他航空公司的商务仓了。
09:21
but I assume that in business class, you don't hear many expressions of, you know,
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我暂且认定，在商务仓，你不会听到太多
09:25
bigotry about racial groups or ethnic groups,
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关于种族的偏执言论，
09:28
because the people who are flying trans-Atlantic business class
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因为坐商务仓的人，
09:31
are doing business with all these people; they're making money
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与各种各样的人进行交易；
09:33
off all these people. And I really do think that, in that sense at least,
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他们只想从这些人手里赚钱。因此我认为，至少在这个层面，
09:37
capitalism has been a constructive force,
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资本主义是一股有助益的力量，
09:40
and more fundamentally, it's a non-zero-sumness
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它是非零纯和的，
09:42
that has been a constructive force in expanding people's realm
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它帮助人们扩张了
09:46
of moral awareness. I think the non-zero-sum dynamic,
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道德意识的领域。我认为非零和机制，
09:51
which is not only economic by any means -- it's not always commerce --
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不只是说经济--任何事都不能只归到经济利益--
09:55
but it has driven us to the verge of a moral truth,
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非零和机制带领我们逼近了道德真相的边缘，
10:00
which is the fundamental equality of everyone. It has done that.
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那就是人人平等。
10:03
As it has moved global, moved us toward a global level of social organization,
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当我们进入一个全球层面的社会机构，
10:08
it has driven us toward moral truth.
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我们必须面对道德真相。
10:10
I think that's wonderful.
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这太棒了。
10:13
Now, back to the unfolding apocalypse.
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现在，回到那本未开启的启示录。
10:16
And you may wonder, OK, that's all fine,
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好吧，你可能会好奇，
10:18
sounds great -- moral direction in history --
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听起来不错--历史的道德维度--
10:20
but what about this so-called clash of civilizations? Well, first of all,
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但是怎么解释那些不同文明之间的冲突？首先，
10:29
I would emphasize that it fits into the non-zero-sum framework,
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我要强调一下，这些冲突的发生也是符合非零和机制的，
10:32
OK. If you look at the relationship
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如果我们仔细看看
10:34
between the so-called Muslim world and Western world --
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所谓的穆斯林世界与西方世界的关系--
10:37
two terms I don't like, but can't really avoid;
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这两个词是我不喜欢用的，但是又无法避免使用它们--
10:40
in such a short span of time, they're efficient if nothing else --
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在这么短的时间内，没什么比这两个词更高效了。
10:44
it is non-zero-sum. And by that I mean,
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这个关系是非零和的。我是说，
10:47
if people in the Muslim world get more hateful, more resentful,
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如果穆斯林世界的人怀着更多的敌意、更多的憎恨，
10:51
less happy with their place in the world,
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对他们在世界上的位置更不满意，
10:52
it'll be bad for the West. If they get more happy, it'll be good for the West.
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这对西方世界来说，也是不利的。反之，如果他们更快乐，对西方世界也是有益处的。
10:56
So that is a non-zero-sum dynamic.
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所以这是一种非零和机制。
11:01
And I would say the non-zero-sum dynamic is only going to grow more intense over time
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这种机制，会因为科技的发展趋势，
11:05
because of technological trends, but more intense in a kind of negative way.
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这种非零和机制，会向负面方向进行的越来越激烈。
11:10
It's the downside correlation of their fortunes that will become more and more possible.
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他们未来的命运，将越来越可能呈现负面的相关性。
11:16
And one reason is because of something I call the "growing lethality of hatred."
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我称其为憎恨的破坏性积累效应。
11:21
More and more, it's possible for grassroots hatred abroad
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基层草根很有可能以在美国发动更频繁的、有组织的暴力
11:25
to manifest itself in the form of organized violence on American soil.
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来发泄他们对异族的强烈憎恨。
11:30
And that's pretty new, and I think it's probably going to get a lot worse
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我认为这种状况很有可能继续恶化，
11:33
-- this capacity -- because of
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--我之所以这么说--
11:36
trends in information technology, in technologies that can be used
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是因为信息技术的迅猛发展，
11:40
for purposes of munitions like biotechnology and nanotechnology.
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生物技术和纳米技术也正在更多地被运用在军火上。
11:46
We may be hearing more about that today.
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我们时常能听到新技术在军事上的新应用。
11:48
And there's something I worry about especially, which is that
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我尤其忧虑的是，
11:51
this dynamic will lead to a kind of a feedback cycle that puts us on a slippery slope.
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这种动态变化会导致一种回馈循环，逼迫我们走上陡坡。
11:57
What I have in mind is: terrorism happens here; we overreact to it.
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我的想法是：恐怖主义已经发生了；我们的反应过于激烈。
12:00
That, you know, we're not sufficiently surgical in our retaliation
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我们对于恐怖主义的复仇，并不是那么理智，
12:04
leads to more hatred abroad, more terrorism.
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这只会让外族更憎恨我们，导致更猖狂的恐怖主义。
12:06
We overreact because being human, we feel like retaliating,
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当我们感到被憎恨时，我们的反应会更加激烈，这是人的本性，
12:10
and it gets worse and worse and worse.
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这是一种恶性循环。
12:12
You could call this the positive feedback of negative vibes,
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你可以称之为负面情绪的正向反馈效应，
12:16
but I think in something so spooky,
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这在我看来非常可怕，
12:18
we really shouldn't have the word positive there at all, even in a technical sense.
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我们甚至不该使用“正向”这个词，即使只是术语的表达。
12:21
So let's call it the death spiral of negativity.
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所以让我们称之为负面情绪的死亡螺旋效应。
12:24
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
12:26
I assure you if it happens, at the end, both the West
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我敢说，一旦这个效应开始作用，到头来，
12:28
and the Muslim world will have suffered.
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西方世界和穆斯林世界都要受罪。
12:31
So, what do we do? Well, first of all, we can do a lot more with arms control,
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所以我们到底该怎么办？首先，我们要做的远远不只是武装控制，
12:37
the international regulation of dangerous technologies.
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或者什么对威胁性技术的国际公约。
12:39
I have a whole global governance sermon
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我想给你们讲一大堆道理，
12:41
that I will spare you right now,
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讲讲整个地球该怎么治理，
12:43
because I don't think that's going to be enough anyway, although it's essential.
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虽然我其实觉得怎么讲都不嫌多，这还是很有必要的。
12:46
I think we're going to have to have a major round
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我认为，
12:48
of moral progress in the world.
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一轮新的道德进化即将开始。
12:50
I think you're just going to have to see less hatred among groups,
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我认为，不同群体---不同的种族、宗教，任何有差异的群体，
12:55
less bigotry, and, you know, racial groups, religious groups, whatever.
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他们之间的厌恶会减少，偏执的行为会减少，
13:01
I've got to admit I feel silly saying that.
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好吧我必须承认当我这么说时，我也觉得自己很傻。
13:03
It sounds so kind of Pollyannaish. I feel like Rodney King, you know,
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听起来我好像在盲目乐观，好像罗德尼 金当年说，
13:06
saying, why can't we all just get along?
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我们为什么就不能一起混？
13:08
But hey, I don't really see any alternative, given the way I read the situation.
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但是，就我目前的处境看，我没有其他选择了。
13:14
There's going to have to be moral progress.
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道德进化一定要发生。
13:17
There's going to have to be a lessening of the amount of hatred in the world,
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整个世界上弥漫的仇恨一定要减少，
13:21
given how dangerous it's becoming.
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因为现在这个世界是如此岌岌可危。
13:25
In my defense, I'd say, as naive as this may sound,
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尽管听起来很无知，但我还是要维护自己一下，
13:28
it's ultimately grounded in cynicism.
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即使一大堆冷嘲热讽依然存在。
13:31
That is to say --
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也就是说--
13:32
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
13:33
-- thank you, thank you. That is to say, remember: my whole view
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--谢谢，谢谢。也就是说，请记住：
13:38
of morality is that it boils down to self-interest.
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我讲所有的道德，都归结于自我利益。
13:41
It's when people's fortunes are correlated.
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当人们的命运彼此相连，
13:43
It's when your welfare conduces to mine, that I decide, oh yeah,
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当你的福利也能带给我福利，那么行呀，
13:46
I'm all in favor of your welfare. That's what's responsible
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我绝对为你的福利着想。
13:50
for this growth of this moral progress so far,
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这个就是道德进步的源动力。
13:53
and I'm saying we once again have a correlation of fortunes,
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我再强调一遍，我们的命运紧紧相连。
13:56
and if people respond to it intelligently, we will see
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如果人们采取明智的回应，
14:00
the development of tolerance and so on --
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我们将看到更多的包容，以及
14:03
the norms that we need, you know.
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其他我们所需要的东西。
14:06
We will see the further evolution of this kind of business-class morality.
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我们讲看到此类公务舱道德的再次进化。
14:10
So, these two things, you know, if they get people's attention
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所以这两个方面--人们注意到并且认可这种正相关性，
14:16
and drive home the positive correlation and people do what's in their self-interests,
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并且他们从自己的利益出发--
14:19
which is further the moral evolution,
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促成了道德的进一步发展，
14:23
then they could actually have a constructive effect.
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那么，可以看到一些建设性作用。
14:26
And that's why I lump growing lethality of hatred
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这就是我为什么把“增强的憎恨的破坏性效应“
14:29
and death spiral of negativity under the general rubric,
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和“负面效应的死亡螺旋效应“放在一个大标题下：
14:32
reasons to be cheerful.
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这值得高兴。
14:34
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
14:36
Doing the best I can, OK.
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我已经很尽力了，好嘛。
14:38
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
14:39
I never called myself Mr. Uplift.
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我从来不叫自己“乐观先生”。
14:41
I'm just doing what I can here.
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我确实很尽力了。
14:44
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
14:45
Now, launching a moral revolution has got to be hard, right?
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好吧，道德进化的展开，确实是非常困难的，对吧？
14:48
I mean, what do you do?
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你们要怎么做？
14:50
And I think the answer is a lot of different people
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我的回答是，
14:52
are going to have to do a lot of different things.
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我们所有人各尽其责。
14:55
We all start where we are. Speaking as an American
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我们就从眼下开始。作为一个美国人，
15:00
who has children whose security 10, 20, 30 years down the road
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我们的孩子有10年，20年，30年的保障，
15:04
I worry about -- what I personally want to start out doing
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我的忧虑在于--我个人设定的起点--
15:07
is figuring out why so many people around the world hate us, OK.
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是想清楚为什么这个世界上，有这么多人讨厌我们。
15:11
I think that's a worthy research project myself.
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我个人认为这是个很值得研究的课题。
15:15
I also like it because it's an intrinsically kind of morally redeeming exercise.
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基本上，这也可以算做一个道德拯救的小练习。
15:20
Because to understand why somebody
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因为要弄理解那些
15:22
in a very different culture does something --
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不同文化背景的人所做的事--
15:24
somebody you're kind of viewing as alien,
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这些人对你来说简直就是外星人--
15:26
who's doing things you consider strange
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他们的所作所为在你看来奇怪极了，
15:28
in a culture you consider strange -- to really understand why they do
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在这样一个奇怪的文化背景下，真正能理解他们，
15:32
the things they do is a morally redeeming accomplishment,
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是一个道德救赎方面的大成就，
15:36
because you've got to relate their experience to yours.
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你必须把他们的经历与你的联系起来，
15:38
To really understand it, you've got to say, "Oh, I get it.
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才能真正明白，才能说，“啊，我懂了。
15:42
So when they feel resentful, it's kind of like
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因此当他们感到愤恨时，
15:44
the way I feel resentful when this happens,
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我似乎也能感到愤恨，
15:46
and for somewhat the same reasons." That's true understanding.
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出于完全一致的理由。“这才是真正的理解。
15:50
And I think that is an expansion of your moral compass when you manage to do that.
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我认为，你应该把这种理解，添加到你的道德范畴中。
15:56
It's especially hard to do when people hate you, OK,
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当对方憎恨你时，这变的尤其困难了，对吧，
15:59
because you don't really, in a sense, want
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因为确实没有人会愿意，
16:02
to completely understand why people hate you.
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去完整地搞清楚为什么有人憎恨你。
16:04
I mean, you want to hear the reason, but you don't want to be able to relate to it.
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我是说，你当然想知道原因，但是你不会愿意把前后两者联系起来。
16:06
You don't want it to make sense, right? (Laughter)
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你不想承认这个因果关系，对吗？
16:08
You don't want to say, "Well, yeah, I can kind of understand
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你不想说，“好吧好吧，我明白了，
16:10
how a human being in those circumstances
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为什么一个处于那种环境下的人，
16:12
would hate the country I live in." That's not a pleasant thing,
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会讨厌我所在的国家。”这毕竟是件别扭的事情，
16:15
but I think it's something that we're going to have to get used to and
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但我想我们不得不渐渐去适应。
16:21
work on. Now, I want to stress that to understand, you know --
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我想强调一下，之所以，
16:32
there are people who don't like this whole business of understanding
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某些人并不喜欢我这一整套理解草根的玩意儿，
16:35
the grassroots, the root causes of things; they don't want to know
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根本原因是：他们不想知道
16:39
why people hate us. I want to understand it.
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为什么人们讨厌我们。但是我想了解。
16:42
The reason you're trying to understand why they hate us,
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只有弄明白他们为什么讨厌我们，
16:44
is to get them to quit hating us. The idea
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我们才能让他们不再讨厌我们，对吧。
16:47
when you go through this moral exercise of really coming to appreciate
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当我们通过这种道德反思，去真正体谅
16:51
their humanity and better understand them, is part of an effort
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他们的人性，去更理解他们，
16:56
to get them to appreciate your humanity in the long run.
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他们才能更体谅我们的想法。
16:58
I think it's the first step toward that. That's the long-term goal.
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这是第一步。这是个需要长期努力才能实现的目标。
17:02
There are people who worry about this, and in fact,
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有些人有顾虑，大家都知道，
17:07
I, myself, apparently, was denounced on national TV
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就几天前，我在国家电视台上被公开指责，
17:12
a couple of nights ago because of an op-ed I'd written.
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起因是我在专栏里所写的东西。
17:16
It was kind of along these lines, and the allegation was
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我所写的字句，被指控为，
17:18
that I have, quote, "affection for terrorists."
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引用他们的话，“对恐怖主义的感情。”
17:22
Now, the good news is that the person who said it was Ann Coulter.
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好消息是，至少念出这个指控的人是安妮库尔特。
17:25
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
17:27
(Applause)
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（掌声）
17:29
I mean, if you've got to have an enemy, do make it Ann Coulter.
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如果你一定要树个敌，那么就找安妮库尔特吧。
17:31
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
17:32
But it's not a crazy concern, OK, because understanding behavior
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他们不是杞人忧天。
17:36
can lead to a kind of empathy,
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尝试理解恐怖主义，引起了某种共鸣，
17:38
and it can make it a little harder to deliver tough love, and so on.
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使得传达这种纠结的情感变得更为困难。
17:41
But I think we're a lot closer to erring on the side of not comprehending
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但我也认为，选择不去理解，会是个更大的错误，
17:48
the situation clearly enough, than in comprehending it so clearly
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情况已经很清楚了，
17:52
that we just can't, you know, get the army out to kill terrorists.
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我们不能再让士兵去杀害恐怖分子了。
17:55
So I'm not really worried about it. So --
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我并不真在乎这个问题。所以--
17:58
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
18:00
-- I mean, we're going to have to work on a lot of fronts,
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--我是说，我们必须再采取些更直接更勇敢的措施，
18:05
but if we succeed -- if we succeed -- then once again,
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一旦我们成功了--那么，
18:12
non-zero-sumness and the recognition of non-zero-sum dynamics
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非零和效应将再一次被认可，非零和机制将再一次被接受，
18:16
will have forced us to a higher moral level.
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我们的道德水准无疑将进入新的水平。
18:20
And a kind of saving higher moral level,
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某种意义上的，拯救性的，更高的道德水准，
18:25
something that kind of literally saves the world.
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可以拯救世界。
18:27
If you look at the word "salvation" in the Bible --
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如果你看看圣经里的“救赎”这个词--
18:30
the Christian usage that we're familiar with --
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我们已很熟悉它在基督教中的用法--
18:33
saving souls, that people go to heaven -- that's actually a latecomer.
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拯救灵魂，带人们上天堂--这其实是后人给的解释了。
18:36
The original meaning of the word "salvation" in the Bible is about saving the social system.
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救赎在圣经里最原始的意思是，拯救社会系统。
18:42
"Yahweh is our Savior" means "He has saved the nation of Israel,"
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“耶和华是我们的救世主，”是指“他拯救了以色列人的国，”
18:45
which at the time, was a pretty high-level social organization.
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那个时候，以色列已经是个很高级的社会组织了。
18:48
Now, social organization has reached the global level, and I guess,
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现在，整个地球都是一个社会组织，所以我猜想，
18:52
if there's good news I can say I'm bringing you, it's just that
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如果我说我能带给你们什么好消息的话，
18:56
all the salvation of the world requires is the intelligent pursuit
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只要以规范而谨慎的方式，明智地追求自我利益，
19:02
of self-interests in a disciplined and careful way.
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就能拯救这个世界。
19:08
It's going to be hard. I say we give it a shot anyway
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这很难。但我们无论如何要试试看，
19:11
because we've just come too far to screw it up now.
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因为如今我们已无法回头。
19:14
Thanks.
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谢谢。
19:16
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robert Wright - Journalist, philosopherThe best-selling author of "Nonzero," "The Moral Animal" and "The Evolution of God," Robert Wright draws on his wide-ranging knowledge of science, religion, psychology, history and politics to figure out what makes humanity tick -- and what makes us moral.
Why you should listen
Author Robert Wright thinks the crises the human species now faces are moral in nature, and that our salvation lies in the intelligent pursuit of self-interest. In his book Nonzero, Wright argues that life depends on a non-zero-sum dynamic. While a zero-sum game depends on a winner and loser, all parties in a non-zero-sum game win or lose together, so players will more likely survive if they cooperate. This points to an optimistic future of ultimate cooperation among humans -- if we recognize the game.
Well-respected for his erudition and original thinking (Bill Clinton hailed him as a genius), Wright draws from multiple disciplines -- including science, religion, history and politics -- in his search for big-picture perspectives on today's problems, particularly terrorism, while offering guarded hope for where we might be headed. A Schwartz Senior Fellow at the New America Foundation, Wright also hosts an interview series with celebrated thinkers at Meaningoflifetv.com.
Wright's newest book, The Evolution of God, explores the history of the idea of God in the three Abrahamic religions, Judaism, Islam and Christianity.
Robert Wright | Speaker | TED.com