TED2006
Robert Wright: Progress is not a zero-sum game
Robert Wright o optimizmu
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Autor Robert Wright objašnjava "zbroj-nejednak-nuli" - mrežu povezanih sudbina i suradnje koja je vodila našu evoluciju k ovoj točki - i kako to možemo koristiti da bismo pomogli spasiti čovječanstvo danas.
Robert Wright - Journalist, philosopher
The best-selling author of "Nonzero," "The Moral Animal" and "The Evolution of God," Robert Wright draws on his wide-ranging knowledge of science, religion, psychology, history and politics to figure out what makes humanity tick -- and what makes us moral. Full bio
The best-selling author of "Nonzero," "The Moral Animal" and "The Evolution of God," Robert Wright draws on his wide-ranging knowledge of science, religion, psychology, history and politics to figure out what makes humanity tick -- and what makes us moral. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
I've got apparently 18 minutes
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Navodno imam 18 minuta
00:27
to convince you that history has a direction, an arrow;
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da vas uvjerim da povijest ima smjer - strelicu.
00:30
that in some fundamental sense, it's good;
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Da je to u nekom fundamentalnom smislu dobro,
00:33
that the arrow points to something positive.
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da strelica upućuje na nešto pozitivno.
00:36
Now, when the TED people first approached me about giving this upbeat talk --
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Kad su mi TED-ovci prvi put predložili da dam ovaj optimistični govor -
00:40
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:41
-- that was before the cartoon of Muhammad had triggered global rioting.
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- to je bilo prije nego je strip o Muhamedu pokrenuo globalne pobune.
00:47
It was before the avian flu had reached Europe.
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Prije nego je ptičja gripa došla u Europu.
00:49
It was before Hamas had won the Palestinian election,
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Prije nego je Hamas pobijedio na palestinskim izborima,
00:51
eliciting various counter-measures by Israel.
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izazivajući razne protumjere od strane Izraela.
00:55
And to be honest, if I had known when I was asked to give this upbeat talk
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I iskreno, da sam znao kad sam zamoljen da održim optimističan govor
00:59
that even as I was giving the upbeat talk,
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da će se čak i dok držim optimističan govor
01:02
the apocalypse would be unfolding --
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apokalipsa otkrivati -
01:05
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:06
-- I might have said, "Is it okay if I talk about something else?"
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- mogao sam reći: "Je li u redu ako govorim o nečem drugom?"
01:10
But I didn't, OK. So we're here. I'll do what I can. I'll do what I can.
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Ali nisam. Sad smo tu. Učinit ću koliko mogu. Učinit ću koliko mogu.
01:16
I've got to warn you:
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Moram vas upozoriti:
01:18
the sense in which my worldview is upbeat has always been kind of subtle,
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smisao u kojem je moj pogled na svijet optimističan je uvijek bio suptilan,
01:25
sometimes even elusive.
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ponekad čak i neuhvatljiv.
01:27
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:28
The sense in which I can be uplifting and inspiring --
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Smisao u kojem mogu biti poticajan i inspirirajući -
01:31
I mean, there's always been a kind of a certain grim dimension
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Mislim, uvijek je postojala određena sumorna dimenzija
01:34
to the way I try to uplift, so if grim inspiration --
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u načinu na koji pokušavam potaknuti, pa ako sumorna inspiracija -
01:38
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:39
-- if grim inspiration is not a contradiction in terms, that is, I'm afraid,
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- to jest, ako izraz sumorna inspiracija nije sam po sebi proturječan,
01:43
the most you can hope for. OK, today -- that's if I succeed.
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bojim se da je to najviše čemu se možete nadati. Danas - ako uspijem.
01:47
I'll see what I can do. OK?
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Vidjet ću što mogu oko toga. U redu?
01:49
Now, in one sense,
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Sad, na jedan način,
01:51
the claim that history has a direction is not that controversial.
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tvrdnja da povijest ima smjer nije toliko kontroverzna.
01:54
If you're just talking about social structure,
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Ako govorite samo o društvenoj strukturi,
01:57
OK, clearly that's gotten more complex
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OK, očito je to postalo složenije
01:59
a little over the last 10,000 years -- has reached higher and higher levels.
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u oko zadnjih 10 tisuća godina - dostižu se sve više razine.
02:02
And in fact, that's actually sustaining
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U stvari, tako se održava
02:04
a long-standing trend that predates human beings, OK,
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dugotrajan trend koji je stariji od ljudskih bića,
02:08
that biological evolution was doing for us.
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a koji biološka evolucija obavlja za nas.
02:11
Because what happened in the beginning, this stuff encases itself in a cell,
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Jer što se dogodilo u početku, ova stvar se zatvorila u stanicu,
02:16
then cells start hanging out together in societies.
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onda su se stanice počele družiti u društvima.
02:19
Eventually they get so close, they form multicellular organisms,
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Postupno su se toliko približile da su oblikovale mnogostanične organizme,
02:22
then you get complex multicellular organisms; they form societies.
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i onda ste dobili složene mnogostanične organizme, a oni formiraju društva.
02:27
But then at some point, one of these multicellular organisms
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Ali u jednom trenu, jedan od ovih mnogostaničnih organizama
02:30
does something completely amazing with this stuff, which is
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napravi nešto sasvim čudesno s ovom stvari, a to je
02:33
it launches a whole second kind of evolution: cultural evolution.
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da je pokrenuo sasvim drukčiju vrstu evolucije: kulturnu evoluciju.
02:38
And amazingly, that evolution sustains the trajectory
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Nevjerojatno, ta evolucija podržava putanju
02:41
that biological evolution had established toward greater complexity.
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prema većoj složenosti koju je ustanovila biološka evolucija.
02:46
By cultural evolution we mean the evolution of ideas.
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Pod kulturnom evolucijom mislimo na evoluciju ideja.
02:49
A lot of you have heard the term "memes." The evolution of technology,
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Mnogo vas je čulo za izraz "meme". Evolucija tehnologije,
02:52
I pay a lot of attention to, so, you know,
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njoj poklanjam puno pažnje, tako da, znate,
02:54
one of the first things you got was a little hand axe.
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jedna od prvih stvari koje ste dobili je bila mala ručna sjekira.
02:58
Generations go by, somebody says, hey, why don't we put it on a stick?
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Kako generacije prolaze, netko kaže, hej, zašto je ne stavimo na štap?
03:03
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:06
Just absolutely delights the little ones.
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To jednostavno oduševljava malene.
03:09
Next best thing to a video game.
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Gotovo bolje od video igara.
03:11
This may not seem to impress,
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Ovo možda ne zvuči impresivno,
03:13
but technological evolution is progressive, so another 10, 20,000 years,
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ali tehnološka evolucija napreduje, tako da još 10, 20 tisuća godina,
03:17
and armaments technology takes you here.
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i tehnologija naoružanja vas odvede tu.
03:19
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:20
Impressive. And the rate of technological evolution speeds up,
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Impresivno. I s brzinom napredovanja tehnološke evolucije,
03:24
so a mere quarter of a century after this, you get this, OK.
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samo četvrt stoljeća nakon toga, dobijete ovo.
03:28
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:30
And this.
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I ovo.
03:32
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:33
I'm sorry -- it was a cheap laugh, but I wanted to find a way
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Žao mi je - to je bio jeftin trik, ali htio sam pronaći način
03:36
to transition back to this idea of the unfolding apocalypse,
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da prijeđem natrag na ideju o apokalipsi koja se razvija,
03:39
and I thought that might do it.
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i mislio sam da bi ovo moglo pomoći.
03:41
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
03:48
So, what threatens to happen with this unfolding apocalypse
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Dakle, ono što nam prijeti s apokalipsom u razvoju
03:53
is the collapse of global social organization.
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je kolaps globalne društvene organizacije.
03:57
Now, first let me remind you how much work it took to get us where we are,
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Najprije, podsjetit ću vas koliko nam je trebalo da dospijemo tu gdje jesmo,
04:00
to be on the brink of true global social organization.
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na rub stvarne globalne društvene organizacije.
04:03
Originally, you had the most complex societies, the hunter-gatherer village.
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U početku, imali ste najsloženija društva, sela lovaca - sakupljača.
04:09
Stonehenge is the remnant of a chiefdom,
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Stonehenge je ostatak plemenskog vodstva,
04:11
which is what you get with the invention of agriculture: multi-village polity
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koje dobijete izumom poljoprivrede: društvena vlast od više sela
04:14
with centralized rule.
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sa centraliziranom vlašću.
04:17
With the invention of writing, you start getting cities. This is blurry. I kind of like that
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Nakon izuma pisma, počnete dobivati gradove. Ovo je mutno. Sviđa mi se
04:22
because it makes it look like a one-celled organism and reminds you
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zato što izgleda kao jednostanični organizam i podsjeća vas
04:25
how many levels organic organization has already moved through
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kroz koliko je razina organska organizacija prošla
04:29
to get to this point. And then you get to, you know, you get empires.
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da bi stigla tu. I onda dođete do, znate, dobijete carstva.
04:35
I want to stress, you know, social organization can transcend political bounds.
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Želim naglasiti da društvena organizacija može nadići političke veze.
04:39
This is the Silk Road connecting the Chinese Empire and the Roman Empire.
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Ovo je Put svile koji povezuje Kinesko i Rimsko Carstvo.
04:43
So you had social complexity spanning the whole continent,
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Tako se društvena složenost protezala preko cijelog kontinenta,
04:46
even if no polity did similarly. Today, you've got nation states.
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što nije mogla ni jedna društvena vlast. Danas, postoje nacionalne države.
04:51
Point is: there's obviously collaboration and organization going on
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Bit je da se očito odvija suradnja i organizacija
04:54
beyond national bounds.
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iznad nacionalnih granica.
04:56
This is actually just a picture of the earth at night,
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Ovo je u stvari samo slika zemlje u noći,
04:59
and I'm just putting it up because I think it's pretty.
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i stavio sam je samo zato što mislim da je lijepa.
05:01
Does kind of convey the sense that this is an integrated system.
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U neku ruku stvara sliku da je ovo integrirani sustav.
05:06
Now, I explained this growth of complexity by reference to something
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Dakle, objasnio sam rast složenosti pomoću reference
05:12
called "non-zero sumness."
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na nešto što se zove zbroj-nejednak-nuli.
05:16
Assuming that a few of you did not do the assigned reading, very quickly,
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Ako pretpostavimo da dio vas nije pročitao što je bilo zadano,
05:21
the key idea is the distinction between zero-sum games, in which correlations
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na brzinu, glavna ideja je razlika između igara sa zbrojem-jednakim-nuli,
05:26
are inverse: always a winner and a loser.
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u kojoj su veze suprotne: uvijek postoji pobjednik i gubitnik.
05:29
Non-zero-sum games in which correlations can be positive, OK.
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U igrama sa zbojem-nejednakim-nuli veze mogu biti pozitivne, u redu?
05:33
So like in tennis, usually it's win-lose;
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Pa kao i u tenisu, obično postoji pobjeda - poraz,
05:37
it always adds up to zero-zero-sum. But if you're playing doubles,
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zbroj uvijek iznosi nula-naspram-nule, ali ako igrate parove,
05:40
the person on your side of the net, they're in the same boat as you,
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osoba s vaše strane mreže dijeli vašu sudbinu,
05:42
so you're playing a non-zero-sum game with them.
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tako da s tom osobom igrate igru sa zbrojem-nejednakim-nuli.
05:44
It's either for the better or for the worse, OK.
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U dobru i zlu.
05:47
A lot of forms of non-zero-sum behavior in the realm of economics and so on
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Mnogi oblici ponašanja sa zbrojem-nejednakim-nuli u carstvu ekonomije
05:52
in everyday life often leads to cooperation.
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u svakodnevnom životu često vode suradnji.
05:56
The argument I make is basically that, well,
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Argument je, u osnovi,
05:58
non-zero-sum games have always been part of life.
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da su igre sa zbrojem-nejednakim-nuli uvijek bile dio života.
06:00
You have them in hunter-gatherer societies,
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Postoje u društvima lovaca - sakupljača,
06:02
but then through technological evolution, new forms of technology arise
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ali kroz tehnološku evoluciju, rađaju se novi oblici tehnologije
06:07
that facilitate or encourage the playing of non-zero-sum games,
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a koji olakšavaju ili potiču igre sa zbrojem-nejednakim-nuli,
06:12
involving more people over larger territory.
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i uključuju više ljudi na većem teritoriju.
06:15
Social structure adapts to accommodate this possibility and
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Društvena struktura se prilagođava da bi ugradila ovu mogućnost
06:19
to harness this productive potential, so you get cities, you know,
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i upregnula produktivni potencijal, tako da, znate, dobijete gradove,
06:22
and you get all the non-zero-sum games you don't think about
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i nastanu igre sa zbrojem-nejednakim-nuli o kojima niste ni pomišljali
06:25
that are being played across the world.
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a koje se igraju diljem svijeta.
06:26
Like, have you ever thought when you buy a car,
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Na primjer, jeste li ikad pomislili, dok ste kupovali auto,
06:29
how many people on how many different continents contributed
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koliko je ljudi iz koliko različitih kontinenata pridonijelo
06:31
to the manufacture of that car? Those are people in effect
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izradi tog auta? Ti ljudi su u stvari
06:36
you're playing a non-zero-sum game with.
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oni s kojime igrate igre sa zbrojem-nejednakim-nuli.
06:38
I mean, there are certainly plenty of them around.
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Mislim, sigurno ih ima puno svugdje naokolo.
06:45
Now, this sounds like an intrinsically upbeat worldview in a way,
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Dakle, ovo zapravo na neki način zvuči optimistično,
06:48
because when you think of non-zero, you think win-win, you know,
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jer kad pomislite na nejednako-nuli, mislite na rezultat pobjeda-pobjeda,
06:51
that's good. Well, there are a few reasons
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to je dobro. Pa, evo nekoliko razloga
06:53
that actually it's not intrinsically upbeat.
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zašto to nije zapravo optimistično.
06:56
First of all, it can accommodate; it doesn't deny the existence
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Kao prvo, može se prilagoditi: ne poriče postojanje
07:00
of inequality exploitation war.
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rata koji iskorištava nejednakost.
07:03
But there's a more fundamental reason
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Ali postoji dublji razlog
07:05
that it's not intrinsically upbeat, because a non-zero-sum game,
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zašto to nije zapravo optimistično: zato što igre sa zbrojem-nejednakim-nuli,
07:08
all it tells you for sure is that the fortunes will be correlated for better or worse.
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sve što vam zasigurno kažu jest da će sudbine biti povezane i u dobru i u zlu.
07:12
It doesn't necessarily predict a win-win outcome.
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Ne predviđa zasigurno rezultat pobjeda-pobjeda.
07:18
So, in a way, the question is: on what grounds
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Na neki način, pitanje jest, na kojim temeljima
07:20
am I upbeat at all about history? And the answer is,
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sam ja uopće optimističan u vezi povijesti? A odgovor je,
07:24
first of all, on balance I would say people have played their games
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kao prvo, sve u svemu bih rekao da su ljudi igrali igre
07:28
to more win-win outcomes than lose-lose outcomes. On balance,
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s više rezultata pobjeda-pobjeda nego poraz-poraz. Sve u svemu,
07:32
I think history is a net positive in the non-zero-sum game department.
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smatram da je povijest mreža pozitivna po pitanju igara sa zbrojem-nejednakim-nuli.
07:38
And a testament to this is the thing that most amazes me,
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Zaključak ovome je ono što me najviše očarava,
07:43
most impresses me, and most uplifts me,
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što me najviše impresionira, i najviše veseli,
07:45
which is that there is a moral dimension to history;
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a to je da postoji moralna dimenzija povijesti,
07:50
there is a moral arrow. We have seen moral progress over time.
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postoji moralna strelica. Svjedočili smo moralnom napretku kroz vrijeme.
07:53
2,500 years ago, members of one Greek city-state
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Prije 2.500 godina, članovi jednog grčkog grada-države
07:57
considered members of another Greek city-state subhuman
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su smatrali članove drugog grčkog grada-države manjima od ljudi
08:00
and treated them that way. And then this moral revolution arrived,
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i na taj način su s njima postupali. Kad je nastupila moralna revolucija,
08:05
and they decided that actually, no, Greeks are human beings.
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odlučili su da zapravo, ne, Grci su ljudska bića.
08:09
It's just the Persians who aren't fully human
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Perzijanci su oni koji nisu u potpunosti ljudi
08:12
and don't deserve to be treated very nicely.
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i ne zaslužuju da se s njima lijepo postupa.
08:14
But this was progress -- you know, give them credit. And now today,
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Ali ovo je bio napredak, znate - priznajte im toliko. I danas,
08:17
we've seen more progress. I think -- I hope -- most people here would say
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vidimo još napretka. Mislim - nadam se - većina ljudi ovdje bi rekla
08:20
that all people everywhere are human beings,
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da su svi ljudi svugdje ljudska bića,
08:23
deserve to be treated decently,
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da zaslužuju da se s njima s tim u skladu postupa,
08:26
unless they do something horrendous, regardless of race or religion.
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osim ako ne učine nešto grozno, bez obzira na rasu ili vjeru.
08:30
And you have to read your ancient history to realize what a revolution that has been,
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Morate proučavati prapovijest da biste uvidjeli kolika je to bila revolucija.
08:34
OK. This was not a prevalent view,
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To nije bilo prevladavajuće mišljenje
08:36
few thousand years ago, and I attribute it to this non-zero-sum dynamic.
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prije nekoliko tisuća godina, i ja ovo pripisujem dinamici zbroja-nejednakog-nuli.
08:41
I think that's the reason there is as much tolerance toward nationalities,
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Mislim da je to razlog zašto postoji toliko tolerancije prema nacionalnostima,
08:45
ethnicities, religions as there is today. If you asked me,
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narodnostima, vjerama, koliko je ima danas. Ako mene pitate,
08:50
you know, why am I not in favor of bombing Japan,
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znate, zašto ne podržavam bombardiranje Japana,
08:52
well, I'm only half-joking when I say they built my car.
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pa, samo se na pola šalim kad kažem da zato što su napravili moj auto.
08:55
We have this non-zero-sum relationship,
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Mi smo u vezi sa zbrojem-nejednakim-nuli,
08:57
and I think that does lead to a kind of a tolerance to the extent that you realize
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i mislim da to stvarno vodi vrsti tolerancije u tolikoj mjeri da shvatite
09:03
that someone else's welfare is positively correlated with yours --
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da je nečija tuđa dobrobit pozitivno povezana s vašom.
09:07
you're more likely to cut them a break.
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Skloniji ste popustiti im.
09:09
I kind of think this is a kind of a business-class morality.
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Na neki način mislim da je to poslovna vrsta moralnosti.
09:14
Unfortunately, I don't fly trans-Atlantic business class often enough
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Nažalost, ne letim u ekonomskoj klasi preko Atlantika dovoljno često
09:18
to know, or any other kind of business class really,
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da bih znao, ili, zapravo, bilo kojom drugom ekonomskom klasom.
09:21
but I assume that in business class, you don't hear many expressions of, you know,
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Ali, pretpostavljam da u ekonomskoj klasi, ne čujete mnogo izraza
09:25
bigotry about racial groups or ethnic groups,
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fanatizma o rasnim i etničkim grupama
09:28
because the people who are flying trans-Atlantic business class
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zato što ljudi koji lete ekonomskom klasom preko Atlantika
09:31
are doing business with all these people; they're making money
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posluju sa svim tim ljudima, zarađuju novac
09:33
off all these people. And I really do think that, in that sense at least,
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od svih tih ljudi. I stvarno vjerujem da je, barem u tom smislu,
09:37
capitalism has been a constructive force,
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kapitalizam bio konstruktivna sila,
09:40
and more fundamentally, it's a non-zero-sumness
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i osnovnije, da je zbroj-nejednak-nuli
09:42
that has been a constructive force in expanding people's realm
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bio konstruktivna sila u širenju ljudskog carstva
09:46
of moral awareness. I think the non-zero-sum dynamic,
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moralne svjesnosti. Mislim da je dinamika zbroja-nejednakog-nuli,
09:51
which is not only economic by any means -- it's not always commerce --
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koji ni slučajno nije samo ekonomska - nije uvijek komercijalna -
09:55
but it has driven us to the verge of a moral truth,
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nego nas je dovela do ruba moralne istine,
10:00
which is the fundamental equality of everyone. It has done that.
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a koja je u osnovi jednakost za sve. Učinila je to.
10:03
As it has moved global, moved us toward a global level of social organization,
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I pošto je postala globalna, povela nas je prema globalnoj razini društvene organizacije,
10:08
it has driven us toward moral truth.
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povela nas je prema moralnoj istini.
10:10
I think that's wonderful.
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Mislim da je to divno.
10:13
Now, back to the unfolding apocalypse.
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A sad da se vratimo na razvoj apokalipse.
10:16
And you may wonder, OK, that's all fine,
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Možda se pitate, da, sve je to OK,
10:18
sounds great -- moral direction in history --
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zvuči super - moralni pravac u povijesti -
10:20
but what about this so-called clash of civilizations? Well, first of all,
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ali što u vezi takozvanog sukoba civilizacija? Kao prvo,
10:29
I would emphasize that it fits into the non-zero-sum framework,
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naglasio bih da to ulazi u okvir zbroja-nejednakog-nuli.
10:32
OK. If you look at the relationship
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Ako promotrite vezu
10:34
between the so-called Muslim world and Western world --
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između takozvanog muslimanskog svijeta i zapadnog svijeta -
10:37
two terms I don't like, but can't really avoid;
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dva izraza koja mi se ne sviđaju, ali koje ne mogu izbjeći -
10:40
in such a short span of time, they're efficient if nothing else --
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u tako kratkom rasponu vremena, ako ništa drugo, barem su učinkoviti.
10:44
it is non-zero-sum. And by that I mean,
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To je zbroj-nejednak-nuli. Pod time mislim,
10:47
if people in the Muslim world get more hateful, more resentful,
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ako ljudi u muslimanskom svijetu počnu više mrziti, više zamjerati,
10:51
less happy with their place in the world,
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ako postanu manje zadovoljni sa svojim mjestom u svijetu,
10:52
it'll be bad for the West. If they get more happy, it'll be good for the West.
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to će biti loše za Zapad. Ako postanu sretniji, to će biti dobro za Zapad.
10:56
So that is a non-zero-sum dynamic.
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Tako da je to dinamika zbroja-nejednakog-nuli.
11:01
And I would say the non-zero-sum dynamic is only going to grow more intense over time
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Rekao bih da će dinamika zbroja-nejednakog-nuli s vremenom postati samo intenzivnija
11:05
because of technological trends, but more intense in a kind of negative way.
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zbog tehnoloških trendova, ali intenzivnija na negativan način.
11:10
It's the downside correlation of their fortunes that will become more and more possible.
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Mogućnost negativne veze njihovih sudbina će biti sve sigurnija.
11:16
And one reason is because of something I call the "growing lethality of hatred."
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Jedan od razloga je nešto što nazivam rastuća smrtonosnost mržnje.
11:21
More and more, it's possible for grassroots hatred abroad
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Sve više i više, moguće je da se korijeni mržnje iz inozemstva
11:25
to manifest itself in the form of organized violence on American soil.
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manifestiraju u obliku organiziranog nasilja na američkom tlu.
11:30
And that's pretty new, and I think it's probably going to get a lot worse
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To je dosta novo, i mislim da će vjerojatno postati mnogo gore
11:33
-- this capacity -- because of
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- ova mogućnost - zbog
11:36
trends in information technology, in technologies that can be used
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trendova u informacijskoj tehnologiji, u tehnologijama koje se mogu koristititi
11:40
for purposes of munitions like biotechnology and nanotechnology.
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u svrhe vojnih zaliha poput biotehnologije i nanotehnologije.
11:46
We may be hearing more about that today.
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Vjerojatno ćemo danas o tome sve češće slušati.
11:48
And there's something I worry about especially, which is that
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Postoji nešto što me posebno brine,
11:51
this dynamic will lead to a kind of a feedback cycle that puts us on a slippery slope.
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da će ova dinamika voditi vrsti ciklusa povratne reakcije koja nas stavlja na klizavo tlo.
11:57
What I have in mind is: terrorism happens here; we overreact to it.
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Što imam na umu je: terorizam se dogodio ovdje, a mi smo pretjerano reagirali.
12:00
That, you know, we're not sufficiently surgical in our retaliation
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Znate, nismo dovoljno precizni u svojoj odmazdi
12:04
leads to more hatred abroad, more terrorism.
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i to vodi većoj mržnji izvana, do više terorizma.
12:06
We overreact because being human, we feel like retaliating,
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Pretjerano smo reagirali zato što smo ljudi, skloni smo odmazdi,
12:10
and it gets worse and worse and worse.
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i to postaje sve gore i gore i gore.
12:12
You could call this the positive feedback of negative vibes,
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Mogli biste to nazvati pozitivnom povratnom reakcijom negativnih vibri,
12:16
but I think in something so spooky,
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ali smatram da u nečem tako strašnom,
12:18
we really shouldn't have the word positive there at all, even in a technical sense.
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uopće ne bismo smjeli koristiti riječ pozitivno, čak ni u tehničkom smislu.
12:21
So let's call it the death spiral of negativity.
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Nazovimo to onda smrtonosnom spiralnom negativnosti.
12:24
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
12:26
I assure you if it happens, at the end, both the West
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Uvjeravam vas da ako se to dogodi, na kraju će i Zapad
12:28
and the Muslim world will have suffered.
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i muslimanski svijet patiti.
12:31
So, what do we do? Well, first of all, we can do a lot more with arms control,
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Pa, što onda činimo? Kao prvo, možemo mnogo više učiniti s kontrolom naoružanja,
12:37
the international regulation of dangerous technologies.
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međunarodnom regulacijom opasnih tehnologija.
12:39
I have a whole global governance sermon
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Imam cijelu globalnu propovijed o državnoj vlasti,
12:41
that I will spare you right now,
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ali poštedit ću vas toga zasada,
12:43
because I don't think that's going to be enough anyway, although it's essential.
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jer ionako ne mislim da bi to bilo dovoljno, iako je neophodno.
12:46
I think we're going to have to have a major round
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Mislim da ćemo morati imati veliku rundu
12:48
of moral progress in the world.
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moralnog napretka u svijetu.
12:50
I think you're just going to have to see less hatred among groups,
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Mislim da ćete vjerojatno morati vidjeti manje mržnje među grupama,
12:55
less bigotry, and, you know, racial groups, religious groups, whatever.
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manje fanatizma, i, znate, rasnih ili vjerskih skupina, nije važno.
13:01
I've got to admit I feel silly saying that.
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Moram priznati da se osjećam glupo što sam to rekao.
13:03
It sounds so kind of Pollyannaish. I feel like Rodney King, you know,
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Zvuči tako naivno. Osjećam se kao Rodney King,
13:06
saying, why can't we all just get along?
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kad kažem: zašto se svi jednostavno ne možemo slagati?
13:08
But hey, I don't really see any alternative, given the way I read the situation.
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Gle, ne vidim drugog načina, uzevši u obzir kako vidim ovu situaciju.
13:14
There's going to have to be moral progress.
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Moralni napredak će morati postojati.
13:17
There's going to have to be a lessening of the amount of hatred in the world,
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Morat će doći do smanjenja količine mržnje u svijetu,
13:21
given how dangerous it's becoming.
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s obzirom koliko opasno to postaje.
13:25
In my defense, I'd say, as naive as this may sound,
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U svoju obranu, rekao bih, naivno kolikogod to zvučalo,
13:28
it's ultimately grounded in cynicism.
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da je to na kraju utemeljeno na cinizmu.
13:31
That is to say --
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To jest -
13:32
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
13:33
-- thank you, thank you. That is to say, remember: my whole view
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- hvala vam, hvala. To jest, zapamtite: cijelo moje stajalište
13:38
of morality is that it boils down to self-interest.
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o moralnosti je da se svodi na vlastiti interes.
13:41
It's when people's fortunes are correlated.
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Kad se ljudske sudbine povežu.
13:43
It's when your welfare conduces to mine, that I decide, oh yeah,
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Kad se vaša dobrobit svede na moju, odlučim, o da,
13:46
I'm all in favor of your welfare. That's what's responsible
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sav sam za vašu dobrobit. To je ono što je odgovorno
13:50
for this growth of this moral progress so far,
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za dosadašnji rast moralnog napretka,
13:53
and I'm saying we once again have a correlation of fortunes,
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i ponavljam da opet imamo povezanost sudbina.
13:56
and if people respond to it intelligently, we will see
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Ako ljudi tome odgovore inteligentno, vidjet ćemo
14:00
the development of tolerance and so on --
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razvoj tolerancije i sličnoga -
14:03
the norms that we need, you know.
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normi koje trebamo, znate.
14:06
We will see the further evolution of this kind of business-class morality.
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Vidjet ćemo daljnju evoluciju ove vrste poslovne moralnosti.
14:10
So, these two things, you know, if they get people's attention
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Dakle, ove dvije stvari, ako one privuku pažnju ljudi
14:16
and drive home the positive correlation and people do what's in their self-interests,
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i uspostave pozitivnu povezanost i ako ljudi čine ono što im je u interesu,
14:19
which is further the moral evolution,
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a to je da unaprijede moralnu evoluciju,
14:23
then they could actually have a constructive effect.
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onda bi stvarno mogli postići konstruktivan efekt.
14:26
And that's why I lump growing lethality of hatred
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Zato odbacujem rastuću smrtnost mržnje
14:29
and death spiral of negativity under the general rubric,
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i smrtonosnu spiralu negativnosti pod opću rubriku:
14:32
reasons to be cheerful.
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razlozi da bi se bio sretan.
14:34
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
14:36
Doing the best I can, OK.
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To je najbolje što mogu.
14:38
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
14:39
I never called myself Mr. Uplift.
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Nikad se nisam nazvao gdin. Oduševljenje.
14:41
I'm just doing what I can here.
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Činim koliko mogu u ovom trenu.
14:44
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
14:45
Now, launching a moral revolution has got to be hard, right?
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Dakle, pokretanje moralne revolucije mora biti teško, zar ne?
14:48
I mean, what do you do?
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Mislim, što da napravite?
14:50
And I think the answer is a lot of different people
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Mislim da je odgovor da će mnogo različitih ljudi
14:52
are going to have to do a lot of different things.
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morati napraviti mnogo različitih stvari.
14:55
We all start where we are. Speaking as an American
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Svi počinjemo tu gdje jesmo. Govoreći kao Amerikanac
15:00
who has children whose security 10, 20, 30 years down the road
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s djecom za čiju se sigurnost za 20, 30 godina brinem -
15:04
I worry about -- what I personally want to start out doing
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ono što osobno želim početi činiti
15:07
is figuring out why so many people around the world hate us, OK.
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je da shvatim zašto nas toliko mnogo ljudi diljem svijeta mrzi.
15:11
I think that's a worthy research project myself.
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Mislim da je to vrijedan projekt za istraživanje.
15:15
I also like it because it's an intrinsically kind of morally redeeming exercise.
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Sviđa mi se i zato što je to intrinzična moralno iskupljujuća vježba,
15:20
Because to understand why somebody
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jer da bismo razumjeli zašto netko
15:22
in a very different culture does something --
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u jako drukčijoj kulturi čini nešto -
15:24
somebody you're kind of viewing as alien,
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netko koga vidite skoro kao svemirca -
15:26
who's doing things you consider strange
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koji čini stvari koje su vama neobične
15:28
in a culture you consider strange -- to really understand why they do
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u kulturi koju smatrate neobičnom, da biste stvarno razumjeli zašto oni čine
15:32
the things they do is a morally redeeming accomplishment,
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stvari koje čine je postignuće moralnog iskupljenja
15:36
because you've got to relate their experience to yours.
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zato što morate povezati njihovo iskustvo sa svojim.
15:38
To really understand it, you've got to say, "Oh, I get it.
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Da biste stvarno razumjeli, morate reći:"Aha, kužim.
15:42
So when they feel resentful, it's kind of like
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Kad su oni puni zamjerki, to je nešto kao
15:44
the way I feel resentful when this happens,
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kad sam ja pun zamjerki kad se ovo dogodi,
15:46
and for somewhat the same reasons." That's true understanding.
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i zbog donekle sličnih razloga." To je pravo razumijevanje.
15:50
And I think that is an expansion of your moral compass when you manage to do that.
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Smatram da je proširenje vašeg moralnog kompasa kad to uspijete.
15:56
It's especially hard to do when people hate you, OK,
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To je posebno teško kad vas ljudi mrze,
15:59
because you don't really, in a sense, want
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zato što ne želite zapravo
16:02
to completely understand why people hate you.
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u potpunosti razumjeti zašto vas ljudi mrze.
16:04
I mean, you want to hear the reason, but you don't want to be able to relate to it.
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Mislim, želiš čuti razlog, ali ne želiš se moći povezati s njim.
16:06
You don't want it to make sense, right? (Laughter)
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Ne želiš da razlog ima smisla, jel'da?
16:08
You don't want to say, "Well, yeah, I can kind of understand
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Ne želiš reći: "Pa, da, donekle mogu razumjeti
16:10
how a human being in those circumstances
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kako ljudsko biće u tim okolnostima
16:12
would hate the country I live in." That's not a pleasant thing,
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može mrziti zemlju u kojoj živim." To nije ugodno,
16:15
but I think it's something that we're going to have to get used to and
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ali mislim da ćemo se na to morati naviknuti
16:21
work on. Now, I want to stress that to understand, you know --
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i na čemu ćemo morati raditi. Želim naglasiti da za razumjeti,
16:32
there are people who don't like this whole business of understanding
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postoje ljudi kojima se ne sviđa cijelo ovo razumijevanje korijena,
16:35
the grassroots, the root causes of things; they don't want to know
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korijena stvari, oni ne žele znati
16:39
why people hate us. I want to understand it.
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zašto nas ljudi mrze. Ja to želim razumjeti.
16:42
The reason you're trying to understand why they hate us,
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Razlog zbog kojeg pokušavate razumjeti zašto nas mrze
16:44
is to get them to quit hating us. The idea
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je da biste ih natjerali da nas prestanu mrziti.
16:47
when you go through this moral exercise of really coming to appreciate
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Kad prolazite moralnu vježbu da stvarno počnete cijeniti
16:51
their humanity and better understand them, is part of an effort
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njihovu ljudskost i da ih bolje razumijete, dugoročno je ta ideja
16:56
to get them to appreciate your humanity in the long run.
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dio truda da ih natjerate da cijene vašu ljudskost.
16:58
I think it's the first step toward that. That's the long-term goal.
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Mislim da je to prvi korak. To je dugoročni cilj.
17:02
There are people who worry about this, and in fact,
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Postoje ljudi koji se brinu o ovome, u stvari,
17:07
I, myself, apparently, was denounced on national TV
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ja sam, čini se, bio prozvan na nacionalnoj televiziji
17:12
a couple of nights ago because of an op-ed I'd written.
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prije par večeri zbog otvorenog pisma koje sam napisao.
17:16
It was kind of along these lines, and the allegation was
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Išlo je nekako ovako, i tvrdili su da imam,
17:18
that I have, quote, "affection for terrorists."
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citiram: "sklonost prema teroristima".
17:22
Now, the good news is that the person who said it was Ann Coulter.
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Dobra vijest je da je osoba koja je to rekla bila Ann Coulter.
17:25
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
17:27
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
17:29
I mean, if you've got to have an enemy, do make it Ann Coulter.
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Mislim, ako morate imati neprijatelja, neka to bude Ann Coulter.
17:31
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
17:32
But it's not a crazy concern, OK, because understanding behavior
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Ali nije to isprazna zabrinutost, jer razumijevanje ponašanja
17:36
can lead to a kind of empathy,
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može voditi vrsti empatije,
17:38
and it can make it a little harder to deliver tough love, and so on.
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i može malo otežati dobronamjernu strogost.
17:41
But I think we're a lot closer to erring on the side of not comprehending
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Mislim da smo mnogo bliže pogrešci u vezi nedovoljnog
17:48
the situation clearly enough, than in comprehending it so clearly
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razumijevanja situacije, nego u vezi razumijevanja situacije tako jasno
17:52
that we just can't, you know, get the army out to kill terrorists.
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da jednostavno ne možemo poslati vojsku da ubije teroriste.
17:55
So I'm not really worried about it. So --
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Tako da uopće nisam zabrinut. Dakle -
17:58
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
18:00
-- I mean, we're going to have to work on a lot of fronts,
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- mislim morat ćemo raditi na mnogo polja,
18:05
but if we succeed -- if we succeed -- then once again,
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ali ako uspijemo - ako uspijemo - onda još jednom
18:12
non-zero-sumness and the recognition of non-zero-sum dynamics
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zbroj-nejednak-nuli i prepoznavanje dinamike zbroja-nejednakog-nuli
18:16
will have forced us to a higher moral level.
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će nas prisiliti na višu moralnu razinu.
18:20
And a kind of saving higher moral level,
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I na neki način spašavanje visoke moralne razine,
18:25
something that kind of literally saves the world.
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što na nekin način spašava svijet.
18:27
If you look at the word "salvation" in the Bible --
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Ako u Bibliji potražite riječ spasenje -
18:30
the Christian usage that we're familiar with --
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kršćanska upotreba s kojom smo upoznati,
18:33
saving souls, that people go to heaven -- that's actually a latecomer.
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spašavanja duša, ljudi idu u raj - je zapravo došlo kasnije.
18:36
The original meaning of the word "salvation" in the Bible is about saving the social system.
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Originalno značenje riječi spasenje u Bibliji je o spašavanju društvenog sustava.
18:42
"Yahweh is our Savior" means "He has saved the nation of Israel,"
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"Jahve je naš spastelj" znači "Spasio je narod Izrael,"
18:45
which at the time, was a pretty high-level social organization.
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što je u to vrijeme bila poprilično visoka razina društvene organizacije.
18:48
Now, social organization has reached the global level, and I guess,
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Društvena organizacija je dosegla globalnu razinu, i pretpostavljam,
18:52
if there's good news I can say I'm bringing you, it's just that
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da ako mogu reći da vam donosim dobre vijesti, one su
18:56
all the salvation of the world requires is the intelligent pursuit
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da spasenje svijeta zahtijeva inteligentnu potragu
19:02
of self-interests in a disciplined and careful way.
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za vlastitim interesima na discipliniran i pažljiv način.
19:08
It's going to be hard. I say we give it a shot anyway
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Bit će teško. Ja kažem, pokušajmo svejedno,
19:11
because we've just come too far to screw it up now.
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jer došli smo predaleko da bismo sad zaribali.
19:14
Thanks.
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Hvala.
19:16
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robert Wright - Journalist, philosopherThe best-selling author of "Nonzero," "The Moral Animal" and "The Evolution of God," Robert Wright draws on his wide-ranging knowledge of science, religion, psychology, history and politics to figure out what makes humanity tick -- and what makes us moral.
Why you should listen
Author Robert Wright thinks the crises the human species now faces are moral in nature, and that our salvation lies in the intelligent pursuit of self-interest. In his book Nonzero, Wright argues that life depends on a non-zero-sum dynamic. While a zero-sum game depends on a winner and loser, all parties in a non-zero-sum game win or lose together, so players will more likely survive if they cooperate. This points to an optimistic future of ultimate cooperation among humans -- if we recognize the game.
Well-respected for his erudition and original thinking (Bill Clinton hailed him as a genius), Wright draws from multiple disciplines -- including science, religion, history and politics -- in his search for big-picture perspectives on today's problems, particularly terrorism, while offering guarded hope for where we might be headed. A Schwartz Senior Fellow at the New America Foundation, Wright also hosts an interview series with celebrated thinkers at Meaningoflifetv.com.
Wright's newest book, The Evolution of God, explores the history of the idea of God in the three Abrahamic religions, Judaism, Islam and Christianity.
Robert Wright | Speaker | TED.com