TED2006
Robert Wright: Progress is not a zero-sum game
Robert Wright 談樂觀主義
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作家 Robert Wright 解釋"非零和效應"如何藉著機緣與合作影響了我們的進化趨勢，以及我們應該如何利用它來拯救今日的人類。
Robert Wright - Journalist, philosopher
The best-selling author of "Nonzero," "The Moral Animal" and "The Evolution of God," Robert Wright draws on his wide-ranging knowledge of science, religion, psychology, history and politics to figure out what makes humanity tick -- and what makes us moral. Full bio
The best-selling author of "Nonzero," "The Moral Animal" and "The Evolution of God," Robert Wright draws on his wide-ranging knowledge of science, religion, psychology, history and politics to figure out what makes humanity tick -- and what makes us moral. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
I've got apparently 18 minutes
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我有18分鐘的時間
00:27
to convince you that history has a direction, an arrow;
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來說服你們歷史發展是有方向的 － 像個箭頭
00:30
that in some fundamental sense, it's good;
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本質上來說，這是個好事。
00:33
that the arrow points to something positive.
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箭頭指向著一些積極的事物。
00:36
Now, when the TED people first approached me about giving this upbeat talk --
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當TED找上我做個樂觀的演講時......
00:40
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
00:41
-- that was before the cartoon of Muhammad had triggered global rioting.
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-- 當時那詆毀穆罕默德的漫畫尚未在世界各地引發暴亂
00:47
It was before the avian flu had reached Europe.
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禽流感尚未抵達歐洲
00:49
It was before Hamas had won the Palestinian election,
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哈馬斯尚未贏得巴勒斯坦大選
00:51
eliciting various counter-measures by Israel.
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以色列也尚未對他們採取一系列的反對政策
00:55
And to be honest, if I had known when I was asked to give this upbeat talk
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說實話，如果當初接受邀請時
00:59
that even as I was giving the upbeat talk,
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我能預知現在
01:02
the apocalypse would be unfolding --
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啟示錄正在上演的話
01:05
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
01:06
-- I might have said, "Is it okay if I talk about something else?"
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我也許會說，“我能不能說點別的?”
01:10
But I didn't, OK. So we're here. I'll do what I can. I'll do what I can.
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不過我當時沒說，那麼好吧，我只能盡力試試看了。
01:16
I've got to warn you:
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我必須先警告你們
01:18
the sense in which my worldview is upbeat has always been kind of subtle,
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我積極的世界觀非常溫和
01:25
sometimes even elusive.
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甚至可以說是晦澀難懂
01:27
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
01:28
The sense in which I can be uplifting and inspiring --
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當我說："我可以變得樂觀"，
01:31
I mean, there's always been a kind of a certain grim dimension
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說真的嘗試變得樂觀本身
01:34
to the way I try to uplift, so if grim inspiration --
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就有些陰暗，所以-
01:38
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
01:39
-- if grim inspiration is not a contradiction in terms, that is, I'm afraid,
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--如果“悲觀的樂觀主義精神“不算自相矛盾的話，恐怕
01:43
the most you can hope for. OK, today -- that's if I succeed.
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這就是今天你們可以從我這兒得到的，最樂觀的東西了。
01:47
I'll see what I can do. OK?
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我會盡力的。
01:49
Now, in one sense,
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首先，
01:51
the claim that history has a direction is not that controversial.
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歷史發展有一定方向性這個觀點，不會引起太多異議。
01:54
If you're just talking about social structure,
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如果我們談論的只是社會結構
01:57
OK, clearly that's gotten more complex
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很顯然，在過去的一萬年裡
01:59
a little over the last 10,000 years -- has reached higher and higher levels.
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社會結構越來越複雜，也越來越高級
02:02
And in fact, that's actually sustaining
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事實上，
02:04
a long-standing trend that predates human beings, OK,
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這個遠期的趨勢在人類出現之前就已經有了
02:08
that biological evolution was doing for us.
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這是生物進化的客觀規律所決定的
02:11
Because what happened in the beginning, this stuff encases itself in a cell,
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生命起源從一個細胞開始，
02:16
then cells start hanging out together in societies.
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然後細胞們逐漸結黨成群
02:19
Eventually they get so close, they form multicellular organisms,
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最後它們彼此親近，構成了多細胞組織
02:22
then you get complex multicellular organisms; they form societies.
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然後有了更複雜些的多細胞組織；他們組成了社群
02:27
But then at some point, one of these multicellular organisms
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某個時間點，某一個多細胞組織
02:30
does something completely amazing with this stuff, which is
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發生了一些奇妙的事情
02:33
it launches a whole second kind of evolution: cultural evolution.
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啟動了一種全新的進化過程：文化進化。
02:38
And amazingly, that evolution sustains the trajectory
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更奇妙的是，這種進化所遵循的軌跡
02:41
that biological evolution had established toward greater complexity.
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與生物進化是一致的: 越來越複雜
02:46
By cultural evolution we mean the evolution of ideas.
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文化進化，是指思想的演化過程。
02:49
A lot of you have heard the term "memes." The evolution of technology,
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你們中的很多人都聽說過"文化基因"這個詞。
02:52
I pay a lot of attention to, so, you know,
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一直以來，我還很關注技術進化，
02:54
one of the first things you got was a little hand axe.
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我們從一把小小的斧片開始，
02:58
Generations go by, somebody says, hey, why don't we put it on a stick?
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代代相傳，直到某人說，我們為什麼不把斧片安在棍子上呢？
03:03
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
03:06
Just absolutely delights the little ones.
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矮小的人都很開心
03:09
Next best thing to a video game.
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電動是另一個好例子
03:11
This may not seem to impress,
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看上去它好像沒什麼了不起的。
03:13
but technological evolution is progressive, so another 10, 20,000 years,
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但是技術進化是一個持續的過程，所以過了一兩萬年，
03:17
and armaments technology takes you here.
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我們的武器裝備看上去像這樣
03:19
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
03:20
Impressive. And the rate of technological evolution speeds up,
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隨著技術進化的速度越來越快
03:24
so a mere quarter of a century after this, you get this, OK.
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再過25年，我們有了這個。
03:28
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
03:30
And this.
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還有這個。
03:32
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
03:33
I'm sorry -- it was a cheap laugh, but I wanted to find a way
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不好意思--這個笑話很糟，我只是
03:36
to transition back to this idea of the unfolding apocalypse,
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想找到一個回到啓示錄的方法，
03:39
and I thought that might do it.
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有關我們是如何走到世界末日的
03:41
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
03:48
So, what threatens to happen with this unfolding apocalypse
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當今世界社會體系的崩潰，
03:53
is the collapse of global social organization.
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冥冥中預示著啓示錄的秘密
03:57
Now, first let me remind you how much work it took to get us where we are,
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首先，我們來看看，世界上的社會體系
04:00
to be on the brink of true global social organization.
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是如何演化到今天的樣子的。
04:03
Originally, you had the most complex societies, the hunter-gatherer village.
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起初，是一個複雜的、靠狩獵與採集維生的村落。
04:09
Stonehenge is the remnant of a chiefdom,
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然後是酋長社會，代表遺跡---巨石陣，
04:11
which is what you get with the invention of agriculture: multi-village polity
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在酋長社會，出現了農業，這是一種
04:14
with centralized rule.
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有中央集權的多村落群體制。
04:17
With the invention of writing, you start getting cities. This is blurry. I kind of like that
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隨著書寫的發明，城市出現了。這個關係看上去有點牽強。但是我很喜歡，
04:22
because it makes it look like a one-celled organism and reminds you
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整個過程就像剛才所講的單細胞組織的進化過程，
04:25
how many levels organic organization has already moved through
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有機體經過層層演化，
04:29
to get to this point. And then you get to, you know, you get empires.
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才成了今天的樣子。接下來的，你們一定猜到，是帝國。
04:35
I want to stress, you know, social organization can transcend political bounds.
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我必須重申，社會組織不受政治界限約束
04:39
This is the Silk Road connecting the Chinese Empire and the Roman Empire.
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絲路貫通了古中國與古羅馬帝國。
04:43
So you had social complexity spanning the whole continent,
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整個歐亞大陸上的社會複雜性是一致的
04:46
even if no polity did similarly. Today, you've got nation states.
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即使政體不同。今天，有那麼多國家，
04:51
Point is: there's obviously collaboration and organization going on
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但很顯然，各種組織與合作蓬勃發展著，
04:54
beyond national bounds.
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超越了國界。
04:56
This is actually just a picture of the earth at night,
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這是一張地球在夜裡的照片
04:59
and I'm just putting it up because I think it's pretty.
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我認為它非常漂亮，
05:01
Does kind of convey the sense that this is an integrated system.
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傳遞著一種整體互動的感覺
05:06
Now, I explained this growth of complexity by reference to something
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現在，我要用"非零和效應"
05:12
called "non-zero sumness."
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來解釋這類演化。
05:16
Assuming that a few of you did not do the assigned reading, very quickly,
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考慮到有些人可能沒有看過閱讀資料，
05:21
the key idea is the distinction between zero-sum games, in which correlations
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在零和遊戲中，參與者的關係是對立的：
05:26
are inverse: always a winner and a loser.
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一個贏家，一個輸家。
05:29
Non-zero-sum games in which correlations can be positive, OK.
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而非零和遊戲，這種關係可以是雙贏的。
05:33
So like in tennis, usually it's win-lose;
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就像在網球賽中，通常是有輸贏的，
05:37
it always adds up to zero-zero-sum. But if you're playing doubles,
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比分總是零和的，但是在雙打賽中，
05:40
the person on your side of the net, they're in the same boat as you,
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你的搭檔，與你站在同一戰線，
05:42
so you're playing a non-zero-sum game with them.
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因此你與你的搭檔之間，是一種非零和遊戲。
05:44
It's either for the better or for the worse, OK.
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你們總是有福同享，有難同當。
05:47
A lot of forms of non-zero-sum behavior in the realm of economics and so on
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在經濟學領域，發生在日常身上生活上的
05:52
in everyday life often leads to cooperation.
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非零和做法帶來合作
05:56
The argument I make is basically that, well,
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我想說的是，
05:58
non-zero-sum games have always been part of life.
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非零和遊戲始終是我們生活的一部分。
06:00
You have them in hunter-gatherer societies,
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在人類採集狩獵的時代就有這些合作。
06:02
but then through technological evolution, new forms of technology arise
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然而隨著技術進步，新的技術不斷興起，
06:07
that facilitate or encourage the playing of non-zero-sum games,
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促進了非零和遊戲的發生。
06:12
involving more people over larger territory.
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參與者越來越多，分佈也越來越廣。
06:15
Social structure adapts to accommodate this possibility and
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為了適應這種可能性，社會的結構不斷改變，
06:19
to harness this productive potential, so you get cities, you know,
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來保證我們有這樣的生產潛力，於是城市出現了
06:22
and you get all the non-zero-sum games you don't think about
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你沒想過的非零和遊戲合作
06:25
that are being played across the world.
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也開始發生在世界各地
06:26
Like, have you ever thought when you buy a car,
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舉個例子，當你買車的時候，
06:29
how many people on how many different continents contributed
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你有沒有想過，有多少身處各大洲的人，
06:31
to the manufacture of that car? Those are people in effect
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涉及了這輛車的製造過程？這些相關人士，
06:36
you're playing a non-zero-sum game with.
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就是你進行非零和遊戲的對象。
06:38
I mean, there are certainly plenty of them around.
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顯然，他們人數眾多。
06:45
Now, this sounds like an intrinsically upbeat worldview in a way,
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本質上這是一種非常積極的世界觀，
06:48
because when you think of non-zero, you think win-win, you know,
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因為當你提到零和時，你所考慮的是雙贏的結果，
06:51
that's good. Well, there are a few reasons
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這很不錯。不過，我也認為，
06:53
that actually it's not intrinsically upbeat.
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本質上，它也並不是那麼積極樂觀。
06:56
First of all, it can accommodate; it doesn't deny the existence
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首先，它並沒有否定
07:00
of inequality exploitation war.
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不平等的剝削戰爭的存在。
07:03
But there's a more fundamental reason
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還有一個更深層的原因，
07:05
that it's not intrinsically upbeat, because a non-zero-sum game,
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因為非零和遊戲，
07:08
all it tells you for sure is that the fortunes will be correlated for better or worse.
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它只能保證結果要麼是都好，要麼是都壞，
07:12
It doesn't necessarily predict a win-win outcome.
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它不能保證最後的結果是雙贏的。
07:18
So, in a way, the question is: on what grounds
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那麼，我到底憑什麼
07:20
am I upbeat at all about history? And the answer is,
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對整個歷史進程保持樂觀的態度呢？答案如下，
07:24
first of all, on balance I would say people have played their games
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第一，總的來說，我認為
07:28
to more win-win outcomes than lose-lose outcomes. On balance,
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雙贏是比同敗更多的
07:32
I think history is a net positive in the non-zero-sum game department.
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我認為在歷史進程的非零和遊戲裡，淨結果是正的。
07:38
And a testament to this is the thing that most amazes me,
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對這個結論，有一個最令我驚異的實際證明，
07:43
most impresses me, and most uplifts me,
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它給我留下了深刻的印象，也非常激勵我：
07:45
which is that there is a moral dimension to history;
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歷史進程，本身包含了一個道德維度，
07:50
there is a moral arrow. We have seen moral progress over time.
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存在一個道德指向。可以看到，道德也是隨著時間而發展的。
07:53
2,500 years ago, members of one Greek city-state
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2500年前，希臘城邦裡的人，
07:57
considered members of another Greek city-state subhuman
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認為其他希臘城邦裡的人，都是次等人，
08:00
and treated them that way. And then this moral revolution arrived,
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用對待此等人的方式對待他們。隨著道德革命的開始，
08:05
and they decided that actually, no, Greeks are human beings.
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他們改變了主意，所有的希臘人都是人類。
08:09
It's just the Persians who aren't fully human
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只有波斯人是次等人，
08:12
and don't deserve to be treated very nicely.
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用不著對他們太好，
08:14
But this was progress -- you know, give them credit. And now today,
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但這至少是個進步--給他們一些鼓勵
08:17
we've seen more progress. I think -- I hope -- most people here would say
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今日的進步就更大了。我認為--我也希望--在座的大部分人，
08:20
that all people everywhere are human beings,
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都會承認，世界各地的人都是同類，
08:23
deserve to be treated decently,
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所有人都應該被平等對待，
08:26
unless they do something horrendous, regardless of race or religion.
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除非他們做了一些恐怖的事，不論什麼種族什麼宗教。
08:30
And you have to read your ancient history to realize what a revolution that has been,
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你應該去讀讀古代史，然後才能明白這是怎樣一個革命。
08:34
OK. This was not a prevalent view,
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這個觀點並未被廣泛接受，
08:36
few thousand years ago, and I attribute it to this non-zero-sum dynamic.
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我認為正是因為非零和效應，幾千年前的人類，
08:41
I think that's the reason there is as much tolerance toward nationalities,
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就學會了包容國籍、
08:45
ethnicities, religions as there is today. If you asked me,
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種族和宗教方面的差異，這與現在的情況無異。如果你問我，
08:50
you know, why am I not in favor of bombing Japan,
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為什麼我不支持向日本投放原子彈，
08:52
well, I'm only half-joking when I say they built my car.
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如果我說那是因為日本人造了我的車，那是半開玩笑的。
08:55
We have this non-zero-sum relationship,
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我們之間存在一種非零和關係，
08:57
and I think that does lead to a kind of a tolerance to the extent that you realize
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我認為，這種關係確實促進我們彼此包容，
09:03
that someone else's welfare is positively correlated with yours --
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因為他人的福祉確實與你的福祉有關。
09:07
you're more likely to cut them a break.
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你可能更願意給他們一個機會。
09:09
I kind of think this is a kind of a business-class morality.
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我想這是一種商務艙的道德準則。
09:14
Unfortunately, I don't fly trans-Atlantic business class often enough
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不幸的是，我不常坐trans-Atlantics公司的商務艙，
09:18
to know, or any other kind of business class really,
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也真不太了解其他航空公司的商務艙
09:21
but I assume that in business class, you don't hear many expressions of, you know,
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我暫且認定，在商務艙，你不會聽到太多
09:25
bigotry about racial groups or ethnic groups,
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關於種族的不當言論，
09:28
because the people who are flying trans-Atlantic business class
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因為坐商務艙的人，
09:31
are doing business with all these people; they're making money
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與各種各樣的人進行交易；
09:33
off all these people. And I really do think that, in that sense at least,
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他們只想從這些人手裡賺錢。因此我認為，至少在這個層面，
09:37
capitalism has been a constructive force,
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資本主義是有建設性的
09:40
and more fundamentally, it's a non-zero-sumness
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它是非常非零和的，
09:42
that has been a constructive force in expanding people's realm
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它幫助人們擴張了
09:46
of moral awareness. I think the non-zero-sum dynamic,
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道德意識的領域。我認為非零和機制，
09:51
which is not only economic by any means -- it's not always commerce --
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不只是說經濟--任何事都不能只歸到經濟利益--
09:55
but it has driven us to the verge of a moral truth,
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非零和機制帶領我們逼近了道德真相的邊緣，
10:00
which is the fundamental equality of everyone. It has done that.
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那就是人人平等。
10:03
As it has moved global, moved us toward a global level of social organization,
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當我們進入一個全球層面的社會機構，
10:08
it has driven us toward moral truth.
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我們必須面對道德真相。
10:10
I think that's wonderful.
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這太棒了。
10:13
Now, back to the unfolding apocalypse.
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現在，回到那本正開啟的啟示錄。
10:16
And you may wonder, OK, that's all fine,
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好吧，你可能會好奇，
10:18
sounds great -- moral direction in history --
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聽起來不錯--歷史的道德維度--
10:20
but what about this so-called clash of civilizations? Well, first of all,
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但是怎麼解釋那些不同文明之間的衝突？首先，
10:29
I would emphasize that it fits into the non-zero-sum framework,
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我要強調一下，這些衝突的發生也是符合非零和機制的，
10:32
OK. If you look at the relationship
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如果我們仔細看看
10:34
between the so-called Muslim world and Western world --
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所謂的穆斯林世界與西方世界的關係--
10:37
two terms I don't like, but can't really avoid;
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這兩個詞是我不喜歡用的，但是又無法避免使用它們--
10:40
in such a short span of time, they're efficient if nothing else --
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在這麼短的時間內，沒什麼比這兩個詞更有用了。
10:44
it is non-zero-sum. And by that I mean,
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這個關係是非零和的。我是說，
10:47
if people in the Muslim world get more hateful, more resentful,
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如果穆斯林世界的人懷著更多的敵意、更多的憎恨，
10:51
less happy with their place in the world,
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對他們在世界上的位置更不滿意，
10:52
it'll be bad for the West. If they get more happy, it'll be good for the West.
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這對西方世界來說，也是不利的。反之，如果他們更快樂，對西方世界也是有益處的。
10:56
So that is a non-zero-sum dynamic.
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所以這是一種非零和機制。
11:01
And I would say the non-zero-sum dynamic is only going to grow more intense over time
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這種機制，會因為科技的發展趨勢，
11:05
because of technological trends, but more intense in a kind of negative way.
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這種非零和機制，會越來越激烈地向負面方向進行。
11:10
It's the downside correlation of their fortunes that will become more and more possible.
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他們未來的命運，將越來越可能呈現負面的相關性。
11:16
And one reason is because of something I call the "growing lethality of hatred."
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我稱其為憎恨的破壞性累積效應。
11:21
More and more, it's possible for grassroots hatred abroad
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很有可能，基層草根會在美國發動更頻繁、有組織的暴力
11:25
to manifest itself in the form of organized violence on American soil.
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來發洩他們對異族的強烈憎恨。
11:30
And that's pretty new, and I think it's probably going to get a lot worse
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我認為這種狀況很有可能繼續惡化，
11:33
-- this capacity -- because of
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我之所以這麼說，
11:36
trends in information technology, in technologies that can be used
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是因為資訊科技的迅速發展，
11:40
for purposes of munitions like biotechnology and nanotechnology.
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生物技術和奈米技術也正更多地被運用在軍火上。
11:46
We may be hearing more about that today.
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我們時常能聽到新技術在軍事上的新應用。
11:48
And there's something I worry about especially, which is that
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我尤其憂慮的是，
11:51
this dynamic will lead to a kind of a feedback cycle that puts us on a slippery slope.
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這種動態變化會導致一種回饋循環，逼迫我們走上陡坡。
11:57
What I have in mind is: terrorism happens here; we overreact to it.
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我的想法是：恐怖主義已經發生了；我們的反應過於激烈。
12:00
That, you know, we're not sufficiently surgical in our retaliation
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我們對於恐怖主義的複仇，並不是那麼理智，
12:04
leads to more hatred abroad, more terrorism.
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這只會讓外族更憎恨我們，導致更猖狂的恐怖主義。
12:06
We overreact because being human, we feel like retaliating,
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當我們感到被憎恨時，我們的反應會更加激烈，這是人的本性，
12:10
and it gets worse and worse and worse.
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這是一種惡性循環。
12:12
You could call this the positive feedback of negative vibes,
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你可以稱之為負面情緒的正向反饋效應，
12:16
but I think in something so spooky,
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這在我看來非常可怕，
12:18
we really shouldn't have the word positive there at all, even in a technical sense.
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我們甚至不該使用“正向”這個詞，即使只是術語的表達。
12:21
So let's call it the death spiral of negativity.
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所以讓我們稱之為負面情緒的死亡螺旋效應。
12:24
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
12:26
I assure you if it happens, at the end, both the West
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我敢說，一旦這個效應開始作用，到頭來，
12:28
and the Muslim world will have suffered.
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西方世界和穆斯林世界都要受罪。
12:31
So, what do we do? Well, first of all, we can do a lot more with arms control,
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所以我們到底該怎麼辦？首先，我們要做的遠遠不只是武裝控制，
12:37
the international regulation of dangerous technologies.
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或者什麼對威脅性技術的國際公約。
12:39
I have a whole global governance sermon
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我想給你們講一大堆道理，
12:41
that I will spare you right now,
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講講整個地球該怎麼治理，
12:43
because I don't think that's going to be enough anyway, although it's essential.
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但我覺得雖然必要，但怎麼講也講不完
12:46
I think we're going to have to have a major round
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我認為，
12:48
of moral progress in the world.
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我們應該展開新一輪的道德進化。
12:50
I think you're just going to have to see less hatred among groups,
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我認為，不同群體---不同的種族、宗教，任何有差異的群體，
12:55
less bigotry, and, you know, racial groups, religious groups, whatever.
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他們之間的厭惡會減少，偏執的行為會減少，
13:01
I've got to admit I feel silly saying that.
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好吧我必須承認當我這麼說時，我也覺得自己很傻。
13:03
It sounds so kind of Pollyannaish. I feel like Rodney King, you know,
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聽起來我好像在盲目樂觀，好像 Rodney King 當年說，
13:06
saying, why can't we all just get along?
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難道大家就不能就好好在一起嗎？
13:08
But hey, I don't really see any alternative, given the way I read the situation.
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但是，就目前的處境看，我沒有其他選擇了。
13:14
There's going to have to be moral progress.
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道德進化一定要發生。
13:17
There's going to have to be a lessening of the amount of hatred in the world,
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整個世界上瀰漫的仇恨一定要減少，
13:21
given how dangerous it's becoming.
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因為現在這個世界是如此岌岌可危。
13:25
In my defense, I'd say, as naive as this may sound,
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儘管聽起來很無知，但我還是要維護自己一下，
13:28
it's ultimately grounded in cynicism.
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即使一大堆冷嘲熱諷依然存在。
13:31
That is to say --
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也就是說--
13:32
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
13:33
-- thank you, thank you. That is to say, remember: my whole view
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--謝謝，謝謝。也就是說，請記住：
13:38
of morality is that it boils down to self-interest.
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我所有的道德，都歸結於自我利益。
13:41
It's when people's fortunes are correlated.
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當人們的命運彼此相連，
13:43
It's when your welfare conduces to mine, that I decide, oh yeah,
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當你的好處也能帶給我好處，那麼行呀，
13:46
I'm all in favor of your welfare. That's what's responsible
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我絕對為你著想。
13:50
for this growth of this moral progress so far,
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這個就是道德進步的原動力。
13:53
and I'm saying we once again have a correlation of fortunes,
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我再強調一遍，我們的命運緊緊相連。
13:56
and if people respond to it intelligently, we will see
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如果人們採取明智的回應，
14:00
the development of tolerance and so on --
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我們將看到更多的包容，以及
14:03
the norms that we need, you know.
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其他我們所需要的東西。
14:06
We will see the further evolution of this kind of business-class morality.
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我們講看到此類商務艙道德的再次進化。
14:10
So, these two things, you know, if they get people's attention
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所以這兩個方面--人們注意到並且認可這種正相關性，
14:16
and drive home the positive correlation and people do what's in their self-interests,
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並且他們從自己的利益出發--
14:19
which is further the moral evolution,
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促成了道德的進一步發展，
14:23
then they could actually have a constructive effect.
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那麼，可以看到一些建設性作用。
14:26
And that's why I lump growing lethality of hatred
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這就是我為什麼把"增強的憎恨的破壞性效應"
14:29
and death spiral of negativity under the general rubric,
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和"負面效應的死亡螺旋效應"放在一個大標題下：
14:32
reasons to be cheerful.
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這值得高興。
14:34
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
14:36
Doing the best I can, OK.
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我已經很盡力了，好嘛。
14:38
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
14:39
I never called myself Mr. Uplift.
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我從來不叫自己“樂觀先生”。
14:41
I'm just doing what I can here.
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我只是做我所能做的罷了
14:44
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
14:45
Now, launching a moral revolution has got to be hard, right?
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好吧，道德進化的展開，確實是非常困難的，對吧？
14:48
I mean, what do you do?
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你們要怎麼做？
14:50
And I think the answer is a lot of different people
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我的回答是，
14:52
are going to have to do a lot of different things.
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我們所有人各盡其責。
14:55
We all start where we are. Speaking as an American
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我們就從眼下開始。作為一個美國人，
15:00
who has children whose security 10, 20, 30 years down the road
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我們的孩子有10年，20年，30年的安全保障，
15:04
I worry about -- what I personally want to start out doing
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我的憂慮在於-- 我自己想要發現的是
15:07
is figuring out why so many people around the world hate us, OK.
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為什麼這個世界上，有這麼多人討厭我們。
15:11
I think that's a worthy research project myself.
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我個人認為這是個很值得研究的課題。
15:15
I also like it because it's an intrinsically kind of morally redeeming exercise.
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本質上，這也可以算做一個道德自救的小練習。
15:20
Because to understand why somebody
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因為要理解那些
15:22
in a very different culture does something --
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不同文化背景的人所做的事--
15:24
somebody you're kind of viewing as alien,
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這些人對你來說簡直就是外星人--
15:26
who's doing things you consider strange
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他們的所作所為在你看來奇怪極了，
15:28
in a culture you consider strange -- to really understand why they do
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在這樣一個奇怪的文化背景下，真正能理解他們，
15:32
the things they do is a morally redeeming accomplishment,
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是一個道德救贖方面的大成就，
15:36
because you've got to relate their experience to yours.
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你必須把他們的經歷與你的聯繫起來，
15:38
To really understand it, you've got to say, "Oh, I get it.
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才能真正明白，才能說，“啊，我懂了。
15:42
So when they feel resentful, it's kind of like
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因此當他們感到憤恨時，
15:44
the way I feel resentful when this happens,
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我似乎也能感到憤恨，
15:46
and for somewhat the same reasons." That's true understanding.
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出於完全一致的理由。" 這才是真正的理解。
15:50
And I think that is an expansion of your moral compass when you manage to do that.
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我認為，你應該把這種理解，添加到你的道德範疇中。
15:56
It's especially hard to do when people hate you, OK,
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當對方憎恨你時，這變的尤其困難了，對吧，
15:59
because you don't really, in a sense, want
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因為確實沒有人會願意，
16:02
to completely understand why people hate you.
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去完整地搞清楚為什麼有人憎恨你。
16:04
I mean, you want to hear the reason, but you don't want to be able to relate to it.
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我是說，你當然想知道原因，但是你不會願意把前後兩者聯繫起來。
16:06
You don't want it to make sense, right? (Laughter)
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你不想承認這個因果關係，對嗎？
16:08
You don't want to say, "Well, yeah, I can kind of understand
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你不想說，“好吧好吧，我明白了，
16:10
how a human being in those circumstances
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為什麼一個處於那種環境下的人，
16:12
would hate the country I live in." That's not a pleasant thing,
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會討厭我所在的國家。” 這畢竟是件彆扭的事情，
16:15
but I think it's something that we're going to have to get used to and
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但我想我們不得不漸漸去適應。
16:21
work on. Now, I want to stress that to understand, you know --
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我想強調一下，之所以，
16:32
there are people who don't like this whole business of understanding
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某些人並不喜歡我這一整套理解草根的玩意兒，
16:35
the grassroots, the root causes of things; they don't want to know
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根本原因是：他們不想知道
16:39
why people hate us. I want to understand it.
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為什麼人們討厭我們。但是我想了解。
16:42
The reason you're trying to understand why they hate us,
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只有弄明白他們為什麼討厭我們，
16:44
is to get them to quit hating us. The idea
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我們才能讓他們不再討厭我們，對吧。
16:47
when you go through this moral exercise of really coming to appreciate
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當我們通過這種道德反思，去真正體諒
16:51
their humanity and better understand them, is part of an effort
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他們的人性，去更理解他們，
16:56
to get them to appreciate your humanity in the long run.
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他們才能更體諒我們的想法。
16:58
I think it's the first step toward that. That's the long-term goal.
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這是第一步。這是個需要長期努力才能實現的目標。
17:02
There are people who worry about this, and in fact,
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有些人有顧慮，大家都知道，
17:07
I, myself, apparently, was denounced on national TV
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就幾天前，我在國家電視台上被公開指責，
17:12
a couple of nights ago because of an op-ed I'd written.
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起因是我在專欄裡所寫的東西。
17:16
It was kind of along these lines, and the allegation was
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我所寫的字句，被指控為，
17:18
that I have, quote, "affection for terrorists."
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引用他們的話，“對恐怖主義動情。”
17:22
Now, the good news is that the person who said it was Ann Coulter.
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好消息是，至少指控我的人是 Ann Coulter
17:25
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
17:27
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
17:29
I mean, if you've got to have an enemy, do make it Ann Coulter.
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如果你一定要樹敵，就找 Ann Coulter 好了
17:31
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
17:32
But it's not a crazy concern, OK, because understanding behavior
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他們不是杞人憂天。
17:36
can lead to a kind of empathy,
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嘗試理解恐怖主義，引起了某種共鳴，
17:38
and it can make it a little harder to deliver tough love, and so on.
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使得傳達這種糾結的情感變得更為困難。
17:41
But I think we're a lot closer to erring on the side of not comprehending
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但我也認為，選擇不去理解，會是個更大的錯誤，
17:48
the situation clearly enough, than in comprehending it so clearly
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情況已經很清楚了，
17:52
that we just can't, you know, get the army out to kill terrorists.
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我們不能再派士兵去殺害恐怖分子了。
17:55
So I'm not really worried about it. So --
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我並不真在乎這個問題。所以--
17:58
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
18:00
-- I mean, we're going to have to work on a lot of fronts,
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--我是說，我們必須再採取些更直接更勇敢的措施，
18:05
but if we succeed -- if we succeed -- then once again,
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一旦我們成功了--那麼，
18:12
non-zero-sumness and the recognition of non-zero-sum dynamics
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非零和效應將再一次被認可，非零和機制將再一次被接受，
18:16
will have forced us to a higher moral level.
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我們的道德水準無疑將進入新的水平。
18:20
And a kind of saving higher moral level,
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某種意義上，拯救性的，更高的道德水準，
18:25
something that kind of literally saves the world.
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可以拯救世界。
18:27
If you look at the word "salvation" in the Bible --
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如果你看看聖經裡的“救贖”這個詞--
18:30
the Christian usage that we're familiar with --
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我們已很熟悉它在基督教中的用法--
18:33
saving souls, that people go to heaven -- that's actually a latecomer.
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拯救靈魂，帶人們上天堂--這其實是後人給的解釋了。
18:36
The original meaning of the word "salvation" in the Bible is about saving the social system.
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救贖在聖經裡最原始的意思是，拯救社會系統。
18:42
"Yahweh is our Savior" means "He has saved the nation of Israel,"
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“耶和華是我們的救世主，”是指“他拯救了以色列人的國，”
18:45
which at the time, was a pretty high-level social organization.
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那個時候，以色列已經是個很高級的社會組織了。
18:48
Now, social organization has reached the global level, and I guess,
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現在，整個地球都是一個社會組織，所以我猜想，
18:52
if there's good news I can say I'm bringing you, it's just that
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如果我說我能帶給你們什麼好消息的話，
18:56
all the salvation of the world requires is the intelligent pursuit
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只要以規範而謹慎的方式，明智地追求自我利益，
19:02
of self-interests in a disciplined and careful way.
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就能拯救這個世界。
19:08
It's going to be hard. I say we give it a shot anyway
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這很難。但我們無論如何要試試看，
19:11
because we've just come too far to screw it up now.
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因為我們已經來得太遠，不能再犯錯了
19:14
Thanks.
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謝謝。
19:16
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robert Wright - Journalist, philosopherThe best-selling author of "Nonzero," "The Moral Animal" and "The Evolution of God," Robert Wright draws on his wide-ranging knowledge of science, religion, psychology, history and politics to figure out what makes humanity tick -- and what makes us moral.
Why you should listen
Author Robert Wright thinks the crises the human species now faces are moral in nature, and that our salvation lies in the intelligent pursuit of self-interest. In his book Nonzero, Wright argues that life depends on a non-zero-sum dynamic. While a zero-sum game depends on a winner and loser, all parties in a non-zero-sum game win or lose together, so players will more likely survive if they cooperate. This points to an optimistic future of ultimate cooperation among humans -- if we recognize the game.
Well-respected for his erudition and original thinking (Bill Clinton hailed him as a genius), Wright draws from multiple disciplines -- including science, religion, history and politics -- in his search for big-picture perspectives on today's problems, particularly terrorism, while offering guarded hope for where we might be headed. A Schwartz Senior Fellow at the New America Foundation, Wright also hosts an interview series with celebrated thinkers at Meaningoflifetv.com.
Wright's newest book, The Evolution of God, explores the history of the idea of God in the three Abrahamic religions, Judaism, Islam and Christianity.
Robert Wright | Speaker | TED.com