TED2007
Bill Stone: Inside the world's deepest caves
Bill Stone探索世界最深洞穴
Filmed:
Readability: 4.3
2,137,929 views
Bill Stone，特立獨行的洞穴探險家，他懸墜探索過地球上最深的地穴。他講述自己如何試圖開採月球上的冰作為航空燃料，以及製造一個自主機器人探索木星的月亮：木衛二。
Bill Stone - Explorer, inventor and outer space dreamer
Engineer and daredevil caver Bill Stone pushes the frontier -- through flooded tunnels, the remotest depths of the Earth and the limits of human endurance. Full bio
Engineer and daredevil caver Bill Stone pushes the frontier -- through flooded tunnels, the remotest depths of the Earth and the limits of human endurance. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:26
First place I'd like to take you
0
1000
1000
我要帶大家去的第一個地方
00:27
is what many believe will be the world's deepest natural abyss.
1
2000
4000
很多人相信是世界最深的天然地穴。
00:31
And I say believe because this process is still ongoing.
2
6000
3000
之所以說“相信”是因為這還是一個不斷發展探索的過程。
00:34
Right now there are major expeditions being planned for next year
3
9000
4000
目前我正為下一年籌畫幾次重要的考察，
00:38
that I'll talk a little bit about.
4
13000
2000
後面我會談到。
00:40
One of the things that's changed here,
5
15000
2000
在這個領域發生的一個變化就是，
00:42
in the last 150 years since Jules Verne
6
17000
3000
過去的150年裏，自從儒勒•凡爾納
00:45
had great science-fiction concepts of what the underworld was like,
7
20000
3000
提出了關於地底世界的偉大科幻理念以來，
00:48
is that technology has enabled us to go to these places
8
23000
4000
科技已經能夠使我們到達這些地方，
00:52
that were previously completely unknown and speculated about.
9
27000
4000
這些地方以前完全無法瞭解而只能靠估測。
00:56
We can now descend thousands of meters into the Earth with relative impunity.
10
31000
5000
現在我們能夠下到地下幾千米的地方，而且毫髮無傷。
01:01
Along the way we've discovered fantastic abysses and chambers so large
11
36000
6000
一路以來我們已經發現了很多了不起的地穴和巨大的洞窟，
01:07
that you can see for hundreds of meters
12
42000
2000
這些洞窟大到連綿數百米，
01:09
without a break in the line of sight.
13
44000
2000
中間看不到任何阻斷。
01:12
When you go on a thing like this, we can usually be in the field
14
47000
2000
當去考察這類地方時，我們常常在荒郊野外
01:14
for anywhere from two to four months,
15
49000
2000
天涯海角的一呆就是2到4個月，
01:16
with a team as small as 20 or 30, to as big as 150.
16
51000
4000
團隊人數小到二三十人，大到150個人。
01:21
And a lot of people ask me, you know,
17
56000
4000
好多人都問我，
01:25
what kind of people do you get for a project like this?
18
60000
2000
你需要找些什麽樣的人完成這樣的探險計畫？
01:27
While our selection process
19
62000
3000
雖然我們選人的過程
01:30
is not as rigorous as NASA, it's nonetheless thorough.
20
65000
3000
沒有NASA那麽嚴格，但是也是非常全面的。
01:33
We're looking for competence, discipline, endurance, and strength.
21
68000
5000
我們要求有專業能力、守紀律、耐力強，有力量。
01:38
In case you're wondering, this is our strength test.
22
73000
2000
如果你好奇的話，可以看看我們的力量測試。
01:40
(Laughter)
23
75000
2000
（觀衆笑聲）
01:42
But we also value esprit de corps
24
77000
3000
但是我們也很重視團隊精神
01:46
and the ability to diplomatically resolve inter-personal conflict
25
81000
4000
以及得體地解決人際衝突的能力。
01:50
while under great stress in remote locations.
26
85000
2000
尤其是在野外面對巨大壓力的情況下。
01:54
We have already gone far beyond the limits of human endurance.
27
89000
4000
我們早已遠遠超過了人類忍耐力的極限。
01:58
From the entrance, this is nothing like a commercial cave.
28
93000
3000
從入口看，這就像個適合商業旅遊的洞穴。
02:02
You're looking at Camp Two in a place called J2, not K2, but J2.
29
97000
4000
你現在看到的是位于J2地點的2號營地，不是K2，而是J2。
02:06
We're roughly two days from the entrance at that point.
30
101000
4000
從這點到洞口大約有兩天的路程。
02:10
And it's kind of like a high altitude mountaineering trip in reverse,
31
105000
4000
這就像反方向的高海拔登山，
02:14
except that you're now running a string of these things down.
32
109000
2000
除了你是吊在這些繩索上向下墜。
02:16
The idea is to try to provide some measure of physical comfort
33
111000
4000
關鍵在於當人在下面時能獲得某程度的舒適感，
02:20
while you're down there, otherwise in damp, moist, cold conditions in utterly dark places.
34
115000
6000
否則當我們在那裡時，就只有潮濕，沉悶，寒冷，一片漆黑。
02:26
I should mention that everything you're seeing here, by the way,
35
121000
3000
另外我還應該提一下，你們現在看到的所有東西，
02:29
is artificially illuminated at great effort.
36
124000
3000
都是費了九牛二虎之力人工照明的結果。
02:32
Otherwise it is completely dark in these places.
37
127000
2000
否則在這些地方就是漆黑一團。
02:34
The deeper you go, the more you run into a conflict with water.
38
129000
5000
下得越深，遇到的水的問題就越嚴重。
02:39
It's basically like a tree collecting water coming down.
39
134000
3000
基本上就像一棵樹向下收集水分。
02:43
And eventually you get to places where it is formidable and dangerous
40
138000
3000
然後慢慢你就到達一些非常可怕和危險的地方，
02:47
and unfortunately slides just don't do justice.
41
142000
3000
不幸的是，這些幻燈並不能把這些都展現出來。
02:50
So I've got a very brief clip here that was taken in the late 1980s.
42
145000
5000
這裡有一個很短的短片，拍攝於20世紀80年代。
02:55
So descend into Huautla Plateau in Mexico.
43
150000
3000
這裏所深入的是墨西哥的瓦烏特拉高原。
02:58
(Video)
44
153000
4000
（視頻）
03:02
Now I have to tell you that the techniques being shown here
45
157000
3000
現在我必須要告訴你們，這裡所看到的技術
03:05
are obsolete and dangerous.
46
160000
2000
都是過時而且危險的。
03:07
We would not do this today unless we were doing it for film.
47
162000
3000
我們今天是不會這樣做的，除非我們是在拍電影。
03:11
(Laughter)
48
166000
4000
（觀衆笑聲）
03:15
Along that same line, I have to tell you
49
170000
2000
還有，我必須要告訴大家，
03:17
that with the spate of Hollywood movies that came out last year,
50
172000
3000
像去年好萊塢拍的那堆電影裏出現的怪物
03:20
we have never seen monsters underground --
51
175000
4000
我們在地底從來沒見過。
03:24
at least the kind that eat you.
52
179000
2000
至少沒見過會吃人的那種。
03:26
If there is a monster underground,
53
181000
4000
如果地底真有怪物的話，
03:30
it is the crushing psychological remoteness
54
185000
3000
那就是心理上的極度疏離
03:33
that begins to hit every member of the team
55
188000
2000
開始衝擊到每個隊員，
03:35
once you cross about three days inbound from the nearest entrance.
56
190000
4000
一旦你離開最近的入口大約三天的路程後。
03:40
Next year I'll be leading an international team to J2.
57
195000
4000
明年我將帶領一個國際小隊前往J2。
03:44
We're going to be shooting from minus 2,600 meters --
58
199000
2000
我們將從地下2600米的深處開始拍攝——
03:46
that's a little over 8,600 feet down --
59
201000
3000
也就是地下8600英尺多深的地方——
03:49
at 30 kilometers from the entrance.
60
204000
2000
距離洞口30公里。
03:51
The lead crews will be underground for pushing 30 days straight.
61
206000
4000
先遣隊員將在地下連續停留30天。
03:55
I don't think there's been a mission like that in a long time.
62
210000
2000
我想已經有很長時間沒有這樣的考察活動了。
03:58
Eventually, if you keep going down in these things,
63
213000
2000
如果你不斷進入這類地方，最終
04:00
probability says that you're going to run into a place like this.
64
215000
3000
你會有機會碰見這樣的地方。
04:03
It's a place where there's a fold in the geologic stratum
65
218000
4000
這個地方是地質岩層上的一個褶皺，
04:07
that collects water and fills to the roof.
66
222000
2000
匯集了大量的水，直沒到頂。
04:09
And when you used to find these things,
67
224000
3000
以前當發現這种地方時，
04:12
they would put a label on a map that said terminal siphon.
68
227000
3000
他們會在地圖上標識出來，寫上：末端虹吸管。
04:15
Now I remember that term really well for two reasons.
69
230000
2000
我之所以能清楚地記得這個詞有兩個原因。
04:17
Number one, it's the name of my rock band, and second,
70
232000
3000
第一，這是我的搖滾樂隊的名字，第二，
04:20
is because the confrontation of these things
71
235000
3000
因爲踫到這種地形，
04:23
forced me to become an inventor.
72
238000
2000
迫使我成爲一個發明家。
04:25
And we've since gone on to develop
73
240000
3000
迄今爲止，我們已經發展出
04:28
many generations of gadgets for exploring places like this.
74
243000
3000
很多代的小機械，用以探索這類地方。
04:31
This is some life-support equipment closed-cycle.
75
246000
2000
這是某种閉合的維生裝備——
04:34
And you can use that now to go for many kilometers horizontally
76
249000
3000
使用它可以讓你在水下方圓幾公里
04:37
underwater and to depths of 200 meters straight down underwater.
77
252000
3000
及水下200米的深度活動。
04:41
When you do this kind of stuff it's like doing EVA.
78
256000
3000
干這個就好像EVA，
04:44
It's like doing extra-vehicular activity in space,
79
259000
3000
就是太空中的艙外活動，
04:47
but at much greater distances, and at much greater physical peril.
80
262000
4000
但活動的距離更長，所冒的生命危險更大。
04:51
So it makes you think about how to design your equipment
81
266000
2000
所以這會令你思考如何設計裝備
04:53
for long range, away from a safe haven.
82
268000
2000
使人能夠離開安全艙更遠。
04:56
Here's a clip from a National Geographic movie
83
271000
2000
這是國際地理電影的片斷，
04:58
that came out in 1999.
84
273000
2000
拍攝於1999年。
05:00
(Video) Narrator: Exploration is a physical process
85
275000
2000
（視頻講解）：探險是一個實實在在的歷程，
05:02
of putting your foot in places where humans have never stepped before.
86
277000
4000
踏足在人類從未到達的地方。
05:06
This is where the last little nugget of totally unknown territory remains on this planet.
87
281000
5000
這是這個星球上僅剩的最後一小片完全不為人知的地方。
05:11
To experience it is a privilege.
88
286000
2000
探索它是一種特權。
05:18
Bill Stone: That was taken in Wakulla Springs, Florida.
89
293000
3000
這個拍攝於佛羅里達的瓦庫拉泉。
05:22
Couple of things to note about that movie. Every piece of equipment
90
297000
4000
這個電影裏有這麽幾件事要注意：這裡你所看到的每一件裝備
05:26
that you saw in there did not exist before 1999.
91
301000
2000
是1999年以後才有的。
05:28
It was developed within a two-year period and used on actual exploratory projects.
92
303000
5000
它們是在兩年内設計並使用於實際的探險活動。
05:33
This gadget you see right here was called the digital wall mapper,
93
308000
3000
你看到的這裡這個小機器叫數字繪圖儀——
05:36
and it produced the first three-dimensional map anybody has ever done
94
311000
4000
它繪製出有史以來的第一張地洞的三維地圖，
05:40
of a cave, and it happened to be underwater in Wakulla Springs.
95
315000
3000
正好就是在瓦庫拉泉的水下。
05:43
It was that gadget that serendipitously opened a door
96
318000
4000
正是這個小東西偶然地打開了
05:47
to another unexplored world.
97
322000
1000
通往一個全然陌生世界的大門。
05:48
This is Europa.
98
323000
4000
這是木衛二。
05:52
Carolyn Porco mentioned another one called Enceladus the other day.
99
327000
4000
Carolyn Porco 之前提到過土衛二。
05:56
This is one of the places where planetary scientists
100
331000
3000
行星天文學家認為
05:59
believe there is a highest probability of the detection
101
334000
2000
最有可能探測到
06:01
of the first life off earth in the ocean that exists below there.
102
336000
4000
地球之外初級生命的地方之一，就是木衛二的海洋。
06:05
For those who have never seen this story,
103
340000
2000
爲了那些從未親眼目睹這一切的人們
06:07
Jim Cameron produced a really wonderful IMAX movie
104
342000
3000
Jim Cameron在兩年前製作了一個非常棒的IMAX電影
06:10
couple of years ago, called "Aliens of the Deep."
105
345000
2000
叫“深海異形”。
06:12
There was a brief clip --
106
347000
2000
這是一個片段——
06:16
(Video) Narrator: A mission to explore under the ice of Europa
107
351000
2000
（視頻）解說：探索木衛二冰下世界的任務
06:18
would be the ultimate robotic challenge.
108
353000
3000
將是對機器人的終極挑戰。
06:24
Europa is so far away that even at the speed of light,
109
359000
6000
木衛二非常遙遠，即便用光速
06:30
it would take more than an hour for the command just to reach the vehicle.
110
365000
3000
也要花上一個小時才能使指令到達飛行器。
06:34
It has to be smart enough to avoid terrain hazards
111
369000
3000
必須非常靈敏才能避開危險地帶
06:37
and to find a good landing site on the ice.
112
372000
2000
在冰面上找到一個良好的著陸點。
06:49
Now we have to get through the ice.
113
384000
2000
現在我們必須穿過冰層。
06:52
You need a melt probe.
114
387000
2000
你需要一個可以融化冰層的探頭。
06:54
It's basically a nuclear-heated torpedo.
115
389000
3000
基本上就是一個核熱能的魚雷。
07:07
The ice could be anywhere from three to 16 miles deep.
116
402000
3000
任何一個地方的冰層就可能厚達3到16英里。
07:11
Week after week, the melt probe will sink of its own weight
117
406000
3000
一個星期接著一個星期，融化探頭靠著自重下沉
07:14
through the ancient ice, until finally --
118
409000
3000
穿透古老的冰層，直至最終……
07:23
Now, what are you going to do when you reach the surface of that ocean?
119
418000
3000
現在，當你到達海洋表面時，你該怎麼辦？
07:29
You need an AUV, an autonomous underwater vehicle.
120
424000
4000
你需要一個AUV，自動水下作業車
07:34
It needs to be one smart puppy, able to navigate
121
429000
2000
它要像一條機靈的小狗，能夠四處探索，
07:36
and make decisions on its own in an alien ocean.
122
431000
3000
而且能在外星海洋裡獨立作業。
07:41
BS: What Jim didn't know when he released that movie
123
436000
2000
吉姆這部電影上映時，他并不知道
07:43
was that six months earlier NASA had funded a team I assembled
124
438000
5000
就在六個月前，NASA已經為我組建的一個小組撥款，
07:48
to develop a prototype for the Europa AUV.
125
443000
3000
研發用於木衛二的自動水下作業車的原型機。
07:51
I mean, I cut through three years of engineering meetings, design
126
446000
5000
就是說，我跳過三年的工程會議，設計
07:56
and system integration, and introduced DEPTHX --
127
451000
2000
和系統集成的過程，直接給大家介紹DEPTHX——
07:59
Deep Phreatic Thermal Explorer.
128
454000
2000
深水熱能勘探機。
08:01
And as the movie says, this is one smart puppy.
129
456000
3000
正如電影所說的，這是一個機靈的小狗。
08:04
It's got 96 sensors, 36 onboard computers,
130
459000
5000
它有96個傳感器，36個機載運算器，
08:09
100,000 lines of behavioral autonomy code,
131
464000
3000
十萬條行為自控代碼，
08:12
packs more than 10 kilos of TNT in electrical onboard equivalent.
132
467000
5000
裝備的電能當量超過10公斤TNT。
08:17
This is the target site,
133
472000
2000
這就是目的地，
08:19
the world's deepest hydrothermal spring at Cenote Zacaton in northern Mexico.
134
474000
5000
世界上最深的溫泉，位於墨西哥北部的薩卡通石灰岩洞。
08:24
It's been explored to a depth of 292 meters
135
479000
3000
迄今已探索到292米的深度，
08:27
and beyond that nobody knows anything.
136
482000
2000
再往下是怎樣的尚無人知。
08:30
This is part of DEPTHX's mission.
137
485000
2000
這也是DEPTHX的一部份任務。
08:32
There are two primary targets we're doing here.
138
487000
2000
這裡我們有兩個主要目標。
08:34
One is, how do you do science autonomy underground?
139
489000
2000
一個是當深入地下時，如何實現自主的科學研究？
08:36
How do you take a robot and turn it into a field microbiologist?
140
491000
4000
如何能派出一個機器人并把它變成一個野外微生物學家？
08:40
There are more stages involved here
141
495000
2000
這中間包含了很多步驟
08:42
than I've got time to tell you about, but basically we drive
142
497000
2000
但我沒有時間一一盡述，但是基本上，我們駕駛機器人
08:44
through the space, we populate it with environmental variables --
143
499000
4000
去各種地方，讓它適應不同的環境變數——
08:48
sulphide, halide, things like that.
144
503000
2000
硫化物，鹵化物之類的東西。
08:50
We calculate gradient surfaces, and drive the bot over to a wall
145
505000
3000
我們計算斜坡表面，然後駕駛機器人爬上一面峭壁，
08:53
where there's a high probability of life.
146
508000
2000
在那裡很可能找到生命。
08:55
We move along the wall, in what's called proximity operations,
147
510000
2000
我們沿著峭壁移動，也就是所謂的近距離操控，
08:57
looking for changes in color.
148
512000
2000
尋找顏色上的變化。
08:59
If we see something that looks interesting, we pull it into a microscope.
149
514000
3000
如果我們發現一些有趣的東西，就把它拖到顯微鏡下面。
09:02
If it passes the microscopic test, we go for a collection.
150
517000
4000
如果它通過了顯微測試，我們就進行採集。
09:06
We either draw in a liquid sample,
151
521000
2000
或是抽取一些液體樣品，
09:08
or we can actually take a solid core from the wall.
152
523000
3000
或者我們從石壁上採集一個實體的岩芯樣品。
09:11
No hands at the wheel.
153
526000
1000
無須全程地人手操作。
09:12
This is all behavioral autonomy here
154
527000
2000
全是機器人的自主行為。
09:14
that's being conducted by the robot on its own.
155
529000
2000
由機器人自己獨立完成。
09:17
The real hat trick for this vehicle, though,
156
532000
2000
但是這部機器真正厲害的地方
09:19
is a disruptive new navigation system we've developed,
157
534000
3000
在於我們開發的一種顛覆性的最新巡航系統，
09:22
known as 3D SLAM, for simultaneous localization and mapping.
158
537000
4000
叫作3D SLAM，用於同時定位和繪圖。
09:26
DEPTHX is an all-seeing eyeball.
159
541000
2000
DEPTHX是一個全視角的眼球。
09:28
Its sensor beams look both forward and backward at the same time,
160
543000
4000
它的感應光線可以同時向前和向後看，
09:32
allowing it to do new exploration
161
547000
3000
使它可以一邊進行新的探索，
09:35
while it's still achieving geometric sensor-lock
162
550000
2000
同時可以將幾何感應器鎖定在
09:37
on what it's gone through already.
163
552000
1000
它已經通過的地方。
09:38
What I'm going to show you next
164
553000
3000
下面我給大家看的
09:41
is the first fully autonomous robotic exploration underground
165
556000
4000
是首次全自主機器人的地下探索，
09:45
that's ever been done.
166
560000
3000
這是史無前例的。
10:36
This May, we're going to go from minus 1,000 meters in Zacaton,
167
611000
3000
今年5月，我們將從薩卡通地下1000米的地方開始，
10:39
and if we're very lucky, DEPTHX will bring back the first
168
614000
3000
如果夠幸運，DEPTHX將帶回第一個
10:42
robotically-discovered division of bacteria.
169
617000
2000
由機器人發現的細菌種類。
10:45
The next step after that is to test it in Antartica and then,
170
620000
3000
下一步就是要在南極進行測試，然後
10:48
if the funding continues and NASA has the resolution to go,
171
623000
3000
如果仍有撥款，而且NASA下定決心，
10:51
we could potentially launch by 2016, and by 2019
172
626000
4000
我們極有可能於2016年發射，到2019年，
10:55
we may have the first evidence of life off this planet.
173
630000
3000
就可能獲得第一個存在地外生命的證據。
10:59
What then of manned space exploration?
174
634000
3000
那麼載人的空間探索呢？
11:04
The government recently announced plans to return to the moon by 2024.
175
639000
3000
政府最近宣佈計畫於2024年重返 月球。
11:08
The successful conclusion of that mission will result
176
643000
3000
這一任務的勝利完成就是
11:11
in infrequent visitation of the moon by a small number
177
646000
4000
少數政府科學家和宇航員
11:15
of government scientists and pilots.
178
650000
2000
偶爾探訪月球。
11:17
It will leave us no further along in the general expansion
179
652000
4000
它對於人類探索宇宙空間的貢獻
11:21
of humanity into space than we were 50 years ago.
180
656000
2000
與50年前沒什麽不同。
11:24
Something fundamental has to change
181
659000
2000
必須有更為根本的變革，
11:26
if we are to see common access to space in our lifetime.
182
661000
3000
才能讓我們在有生之年看到對宇宙的更普遍的接觸。
11:29
What I'm going to show you next are a couple of controversial ideas.
183
664000
3000
下面將給大家看一些極富爭議的觀點。
11:33
And I hope you'll bear with me and have some faith
184
668000
2000
希望你們耐心聽下去，並且相信
11:35
that there's credibility behind what we're going to say here.
185
670000
4000
我們這裡所說的都是有可信度的。
11:39
There are three underpinnings of working in space privately.
186
674000
7000
私人進行宇宙探索事業有三大支柱。
11:46
One of them is the requirement
187
681000
2000
其一是需要
11:48
for economical earth-to-space transport.
188
683000
2000
地球—宇宙之間經濟節約的交通。
11:51
The Bert Rutans and Richard Bransons of this world
189
686000
3000
在這方面，Bert Rutans 和Richard Bransons
11:54
have got this in their sights and I salute them.
190
689000
2000
已經看到了這點，我向他們致敬，
11:56
Go, go, go.
191
691000
2000
加油！加油！
11:58
The next thing we need are places to stay on orbit.
192
693000
3000
其次我們需要可以在軌道上停留的地方。
12:01
Orbital hotels to start with, but workshops for the rest of us later on.
193
696000
3000
從軌道酒店開始，之後才輪到我們的工作站。
12:04
The final missing piece, the real paradigm-buster, is this:
194
699000
6000
最後一個環節，真正扭轉乾坤的是
12:10
a gas station on orbit.
195
705000
2000
軌道加油站。
12:13
It's not going to look like that.
196
708000
2000
當然不會是這樣的。
12:15
If it existed, it would change all future spacecraft design and space mission planning.
197
710000
6000
如果這能成為現實，它將改變未來所有航天器的設計，以及太空探索計畫。
12:21
Now, to give you a chance to understand
198
716000
3000
現在，爲了讓你們有機會理解
12:24
why there is power in that statement,
199
719000
3000
這個前景的魅力何在，
12:27
I've got to give you the basics of Space 101.
200
722000
2000
我要給你們上一堂太空基礎理論。
12:29
And the first thing is everything you do in space you pay by the kilogram.
201
724000
6000
你要知道的第一件事就是，在太空中做任何事都要按千克計算費用。
12:37
Anybody drink one of these here this week?
202
732000
2000
這星期有人喝過這東西么？
12:40
You'd pay 10,000 dollars for that in orbit.
203
735000
4000
在軌道上，你想喝瓶水要花一萬美元。
12:44
That's more than you pay for TED,
204
739000
2000
這比你付給TED的還要多，
12:46
if Google dropped their sponsorship.
205
741000
2000
如果GOOGLE停止他們的贊助的話。
12:48
(Laughter)
206
743000
2000
（笑聲）
12:51
The second is more than 90 percent of the weight of a vehicle is in propellant.
207
746000
5000
第二，一個航天器超過90%的重量都在於推進燃料。
12:56
Thus, every time you'd want to do anything in space,
208
751000
4000
因此，任何時候你想在太空中干點什麽的話，
13:00
you are literally blowing away enormous sums of money
209
755000
4000
你的的確確是在大把大把地燒錢，
13:04
every time you hit the accelerator.
210
759000
2000
只要你按一下加速器。
13:06
Not even the guys at Tesla can fight that physics.
211
761000
3000
即便是Telsa(極品電動跑車)的傢伙們也貴不過這條物理定律。
13:09
So, what if you could get your gas at a 10th the price?
212
764000
5000
因此，如果你能夠只用十分之一的價格就能獲得燃料呢？
13:15
There is a place where you can.
213
770000
3000
有個地方能讓你如願以償。
13:18
In fact, you can get it better -- you can get it at 14 times lower
214
773000
3000
事實上，更便宜——只需十四分之一的價格。
13:21
if you can find propellant on the moon.
215
776000
3000
如果你能在月球上找到燃料。
13:24
There is a little-known mission that was launched
216
779000
2000
有一個鮮為人知的任務，
13:26
by the Pentagon, 13 years ago now, called Clementine.
217
781000
4000
早在13年前五角大樓就開始啟動了，叫作橘子計畫。
13:30
And the most amazing thing that came out of that mission
218
785000
2000
這項任務最令人驚異的發現就是
13:33
was a strong hydrogen signature at Shackleton crater
219
788000
3000
在夏克頓環形山發現了氫的強烈跡象，
13:36
on the south pole of the moon.
220
791000
2000
就在月球的南極。
13:38
That signal was so strong,
221
793000
2000
這個信號非常明顯，
13:40
it could only have been produced by 10 trillion tons of water
222
795000
4000
唯一的可能就是有十萬億噸的水，
13:44
buried in the sediment, collected over millions and billions of years
223
799000
4000
經過億萬年的積攢，埋藏在沉積物中，
13:48
by the impact of asteroids and comet material.
224
803000
4000
主要來自小行星和彗星物質的撞擊。
13:55
If we're going to get that, and make that gas station possible,
225
810000
4000
如果我們想要得到這些水，并使加油站就成為可能，
13:59
we have to figure out ways to move large volumes of payload through space.
226
814000
3000
我們就必須設法可以在太空中移動大量的貨物。
14:02
We can't do that right now.
227
817000
2000
現在還無法做到。
14:04
The way you normally build a system right now is you have a tube stack
228
819000
3000
目前通常的做法是用一組管裝燃料，
14:07
that has to be launched from the ground,
229
822000
2000
必須從地面發射上去，
14:09
and resist all kinds of aerodynamic forces.
230
824000
2000
要對抗各種空氣阻力。
14:11
We have to beat that.
231
826000
2000
我們必須克服這個問題。
14:13
We can do it because in space there are no aerodynamics.
232
828000
3000
我們能夠做到因為在太空中沒有空氣阻力。
14:16
We can go and use inflatable systems for almost everything.
233
831000
4000
我們可以在幾乎所有的東西上都使用充氣系統。
14:20
This is an idea that, again, came out of Livermore back in 1989,
234
835000
4000
這個點子是1989年，Livermore（美國國家航天實驗室）
14:24
with Dr. Lowell Wood's group.
235
839000
2000
Lowell Wood博士的小組提出的。
14:26
And we can extend that now to just about everything.
236
841000
4000
而現在，我們能把這個方法應用到幾乎所有東西上。
14:30
Bob Bigelow currently has a test article in the orbit.
237
845000
2000
Bob Bigelow 目前正在軌道上進行一項實驗。
14:32
We can go much further.
238
847000
1000
我們能走得更遠。
14:33
We can build space tugs, orbiting platforms for holding cryogens and water.
239
848000
5000
我們可以製造太空拖船，軌道平臺，用以存放冷凍劑和水。
14:38
There's another thing.
240
853000
2000
還有一件事，
14:40
When you're coming back from the moon,
241
855000
2000
當你要從月亮上返回時，
14:42
you have to deal with orbital mechanics.
242
857000
2000
你必須對抗軌道力學。
14:44
It says you're moving 10,000 feet per second faster
243
859000
2000
也就是說，你要比你真正想要的速度每秒快一萬英尺，
14:46
than you really want to be to get back to your gas station.
244
861000
3000
才能返回你的加油站。
14:49
You got two choices.
245
864000
2000
你可以有兩種選擇。
14:51
You can burn rocket fuel to get there, or you can do something really incredible.
246
866000
4000
你可以耗費火箭燃料到達那裡，或者，你可以做一件非常不可思議的事，
14:55
You can dive into the stratosphere,
247
870000
2000
你可以沖入平流層，
14:57
and precisely dissipate that velocity, and come back out to the space station.
248
872000
4000
然後剛剛好使俯衝速度抵銷，然後返回到空間站。
15:01
It has never been done.
249
876000
1000
這個方法還沒實現過。
15:02
It's risky and it's going to be one hell of a ride --
250
877000
4000
它很冒險，它將會是一段驚險的旅程——
15:06
better than Disney.
251
881000
2000
不過好過迪斯尼。
15:08
The traditional approach to space exploration
252
883000
2000
傳統的太空探索方式是
15:10
has been that you carry all the fuel you need
253
885000
2000
你要帶上你返程所需要的全部燃料，
15:12
to get everybody back in case of an emergency.
254
887000
2000
包括任何不備之需。
15:14
If you try to do that for the moon,
255
889000
2000
如果你要前往 月球，
15:16
you're going to burn a billion dollars in fuel alone sending a crew out there.
256
891000
4000
光是把所有人員送到那裡就已經燒掉十億美元。
15:20
But if you send a mining team there,
257
895000
2000
但是如果你派一個採礦隊過去，
15:22
without the return propellant, first --
258
897000
2000
先不帶任何返程燃料，
15:24
(Laughter)
259
899000
4000
（笑聲）
15:29
Did any of you guys hear the story of Cortez?
260
904000
3000
誰聽過Cortez的故事？（美國科羅拉多州山區一偏遠小鎮，謠傳有UFO，結果是臺灣U2偵查機燃油耗光迫降）
15:33
This is not like that. I'm much more like Scotty.
261
908000
2000
這和那個不同。我可是個小氣鬼。
15:35
I like this equipment, you know, and I really value it
262
910000
3000
我喜歡這個飛行器，要知道，我真的很寶貝它。
15:38
so we're not going to burn the gear.
263
913000
2000
所以我們不想把它燒壞。
15:40
But, if you were truly bold you could get it there, manufacture it,
264
915000
4000
但是，如果你真的夠膽量，你能在那裡獲得燃料，生產燃料，
15:44
and it would be the most dramatic demonstration
265
919000
2000
那將是最戲劇性的場面，
15:46
that you could do something worthwhile off this planet
266
921000
2000
證明你做到了在地球以外最有價值的事，
15:48
that has ever been done.
267
923000
2000
這是前所未有的。
15:50
There's a myth that you can't do anything in space
268
925000
3000
有一個神話，號稱在太空中很難有所成就，
15:53
for less than a trillion dollars and 20 years.
269
928000
4000
除非有一萬億美元和20年的時間。
15:57
That's not true.
270
932000
1000
這不是真的。
15:58
In seven years, we could pull off
271
933000
2000
只要7年，我們就能完成
16:00
an industrial mission to Shackleton and demonstrate
272
935000
2000
前往夏克頓的工業計畫，并證明
16:02
that you could provide commercial reality out of this in low-earth orbit.
273
937000
4000
從此可以在近地軌道上具備商業活動的條件。
16:07
We're living in one of the most exciting times in history.
274
942000
3000
我們正處在人類歷史上最激動人心的時代之一。
16:10
We're at a magical confluence where private wealth
275
945000
2000
我們正處一個神奇的交匯點，在這裡個人財富
16:12
and imagination are driving the demand for access to space.
276
947000
4000
和想像力正推動向太空進發的渴求。
16:16
The orbital refueling stations I've just described
277
951000
3000
我所描述的軌道加油站
16:19
could create an entirely new industry and provide the final key
278
954000
3000
能夠創造一個全新的產業，并提供最後一把鑰匙
16:22
for opening space to the general exploration.
279
957000
4000
打開通往外空間進行更廣泛探索的大門。
16:26
To bust the paradigm a radically different approach is needed.
280
961000
4000
要破舊立新，就需要一個極為不同的進路。
16:30
We can do it by jump-starting with an industrial
281
965000
2000
我們可以從發起一次產業探險開始，
16:32
Lewis and Clark expedition to Shackleton crater,
282
967000
3000
就是前往夏克頓環形山的Lewis 與 Clark 遠征（1804年–1806年，美國國內首次橫越大陸西抵太平洋沿岸的往返考察活動）。
16:35
to mine the moon for resources, and demonstrate
283
970000
2000
開採月球上的資源，并證明，
16:37
they can form the basis for a profitable business on orbit.
284
972000
4000
這可以成為在軌道上開展有豐厚回報的商業活動的基礎。
16:41
Talk about space always seems to be hung on ambiguities
285
976000
3000
一說到太空，似乎老是讓人覺得從目標到時間安排
16:44
of purpose and timing.
286
979000
2000
都存在諸多變數，懸而未決。
16:46
I would like to close here by putting a stake in the sand at TED.
287
981000
4000
今天我想在TED這裡定下一個期限，
16:51
I intend to lead that expedition.
288
986000
2000
我願意發起這次遠征。
16:53
(Applause)
289
988000
8000
（掌聲）
17:01
It can be done in seven years with the right backing.
290
996000
3000
如果一切順利，可以在7年內完成。
17:04
Those who join me in making it happen will become a part of history
291
999000
4000
和我一起完成這次探險的人將
17:08
and join other bold individuals from time past
292
1003000
2000
和從前那些勇敢的先驅們一起被載入史冊，
17:10
who, had they been here today, would have heartily approved.
293
1005000
4000
如果他們今天也在這裡，肯定也會打心底裡贊成。
17:15
There was once a time when people did bold things to open the frontier.
294
1010000
5000
歷史上曾有過這樣的時代，人們敢於冒險開創新的未知領域。
17:20
We have collectively forgotten that lesson.
295
1015000
4000
我們卻把這一課集體遺忘了，
17:25
Now we're at a time when boldness is required to move forward.
296
1020000
4000
我們現在所處的時代，正是需要大膽前進的時代。
17:31
100 years after Sir Ernest Shackleton wrote these words,
297
1026000
4000
在夏克頓爵士（英國南極探險家）寫下這句話的一百年以後，
17:35
I intend to plant an industrial flag on the moon
298
1030000
2000
我打算將一面工業旗幟插上月球，
17:37
and complete the final piece
299
1032000
3000
以完成這最後一步，
17:40
that will open the space frontier, in our time, for all of us.
300
1035000
4000
在我們這個時代，為我們所有的人打開通往太空前沿的大門。
17:44
Thank you.
301
1039000
1000
謝謝大家。
17:45
(Applause)
302
1040000
8000
（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Stone - Explorer, inventor and outer space dreamerEngineer and daredevil caver Bill Stone pushes the frontier -- through flooded tunnels, the remotest depths of the Earth and the limits of human endurance.
Why you should listen
Engineer and daredevil explorer Bill Stone is obsessed with discovery. After years of crawling through the deepest unexplored caves on the planet, he's building robots to go where he can't. His company Stone Aerospace built DepthX, an autonomous robot, which descended 1,099 feet down Mexico's deepest watery sinkhole. In 2009, Stone and his team completed a successful mission to Antarctica. ENDURANCE, an expedition sponsored by NASA, was developed to explore and map under the ice of Lake Bonney in Antarctica. But this was just a test for the real mission (which is explained in a National Geographic documentary, Journey to an Alien Moon): building a probe with NASA to bore through miles of ice on Jupiter's moon Europa, then swim through the buried Europan sea in search of alien life.
He's also hoping to singlehandedly jump-start commercial human space exploration by offering spacefarers affordable fuels and consumables extracted from the moon. His new Shackleton Energy Company, or SEC, intends to raise $15 billion (as he points out, this is about the cost of a North Sea oil production platform complex) to mine ice thought to be trapped on the moon's southern pole at Shackleton Crater, and to sell derived products (including propellants and other consumables) on the moon and in low earth orbit (LEO) to international consumers.
Read about his 2014 expedition to the Chevé system, perhaps the deepest cave on Earth.
Bill Stone | Speaker | TED.com