TED1998
Paul MacCready: Nature vs. humans
保羅 麥可科羅地 之 自然與人類
Filmed:
Readability: 4
227,903 views
一九九八年，飛行器設計師保羅 麥可科羅地談論地球上人類極大程度上主宰自然的現象。他談到我們該如何維護自然的平衡。他曾參與設計製造過 太陽能飛機、高效滑翔機和電動汽車。
Paul MacCready - Engineer
Paul MacCready, an aircraft designer and environmentalist, is a pioneer of human-powered flight, alternative energy for transportation, and environmentally responsible design. Full bio
Paul MacCready, an aircraft designer and environmentalist, is a pioneer of human-powered flight, alternative energy for transportation, and environmentally responsible design. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
You hear that this is the era of environment -- or biology, or information technology ...
0
0
7000
現在是環境，或生物，或信息技術的時代
00:25
Well, it's the era of a lot of different things
1
7000
2000
當然，現在也是很多其他東西的時代
00:27
that we're in right now. But one thing for sure:
2
9000
2000
但是有一點是肯定的
00:29
it's the era of change. There's more change going on
3
11000
3000
現在是一個正在發生改變的時代
00:32
than ever has occurred in the history of human life on earth.
4
14000
6000
目前發生的變化是人類歷史上前所未有的
00:38
And you all sort of know it, but it's hard to get it
5
20000
3000
儘管我們知道變化存在，但是卻很難完全掌握它們
00:41
so that you really understand it.
6
23000
2000
以至於我們難於理解這些變化
00:43
And I've tried to put together something that's a good start for this.
7
25000
4000
我稍微分析了一下這個問題
00:48
I've tried to show in this -- though the color doesn't come out --
8
30000
4000
我試過用這個圖演示，但是效果並不明顯
00:52
that what I'm concerned with is the little 50-year time bubble
9
34000
4000
我很關心後邊這段50年的虛線，它和大家息息相關
00:56
that you are in. You tend to be interested in a generation past,
10
38000
4000
人們關心一代人的過去
01:00
a generation future -- your parents, your kids, things you can change
11
42000
4000
一代人的未來，你的父母，你的孩子，以及
01:04
over the next few decades -- and this 50-year time bubble
12
46000
2000
未來幾十年你能改變的實。
01:06
you kind of move along in. And in that 50 years,
13
48000
4000
而你則沿著這代表50年的虛線前進。在未來50年，
01:10
if you look at the population curve, you find the population of humans
14
52000
4000
從人口曲線上來看，和現在相比
01:14
on the earth more than doubles and we're up three-and-a-half times
15
56000
4000
地球上的人口會翻倍，而那時的人口和我出生的時候相比是
01:19
since I was born. When you have a new baby,
16
61000
3000
三倍還要多。如果你有個孩子
01:22
by the time that kid gets out of high school
17
64000
3000
到孩子上完高中的时候
01:26
more people will be added than existed on earth when I was born.
18
68000
3000
新增人口比我出生时的 已存人口还要多
01:30
This is unprecedented, and it's big.
19
72000
2000
这是史无前例的 也是无比巨大的改变
01:33
Where it goes in the future is questioned. So that's the human part.
20
75000
3000
人口的未来有很大的挑战。
01:37
Now, the human part related to animals: look at the left side of that.
21
79000
4000
下面是人类和动物的关系。请看左边
01:42
What I call the human portion -- humans and their livestock and pets --
22
84000
3000
我所謂的人類部份 就是 人類和人所畜養的牲畜和寵物
01:45
versus the natural portion -- all the other wild animals and just --
23
87000
4000
相對應的是自然部份 即 其他所有的野生動物
01:49
these are vertebrates and all the birds, etc.,
24
91000
4000
這些是脊椎動物和所有的鳥類 等等
01:53
in the land and air, not in the water. How does it balance?
25
95000
4000
在陸地上在空中 但是沒有水中的。 人類和自然是怎麼平衡的呢
01:57
Certainly, 10,000 years ago, the civilization's beginning,
26
99000
5000
在一萬年前，人類文明才剛剛開始的時候
02:02
the human portion was less than one tenth of one percent. Let's look at it now.
27
104000
5000
人類部份不到千分之一。我們現在來看一下
02:07
You follow this curve and you see the whiter spot in the middle --
28
109000
4000
請看這條曲線，中間有一個比較白的點
02:11
that's your 50-year time bubble. Humans, livestock and pets
29
113000
5000
這就是未來50年的虛線。人類，牲畜和寵物
02:16
are now 97 percent of that integrated total mass on earth
30
118000
3000
目前是地球上集合質量的百分之九十七
02:20
and all wild nature is three percent. We have won. The next generation
31
122000
4000
所有的野生自然部份只佔百分之三。人類壓倒性的勝利了。
02:24
doesn't even have to worry about this game -- it is over.
32
126000
2000
我們的下一代不需要擔心人類和自然的競爭了。它已經結束了。
02:27
And the biggest problem came in the last 25 years:
33
129000
4000
但是最近25年有最大的問題
02:31
it went from 25 percent up to that 97 percent.
34
133000
3000
人類的比例從25％直接躍升到97％
02:34
And this really is a sobering picture upon realizing that we, humans,
35
136000
5000
這很明確的揭示出 人類已經開始掌控地球上的生命
02:40
are in charge of life on earth; we're like the capricious Gods
36
142000
4000
我們就像希臘神話中變幻莫測的古神
02:44
of old Greek myths, kind of playing with life --
37
146000
4000
我們在玩弄操縱著生命
02:49
and not a great deal of wisdom injected into it.
38
151000
4000
並沒有運用智慧來控制生命
02:53
Now, the third curve is information technology.
39
155000
4000
下面是第三條曲線，關於信息技術發展的曲線
02:57
This is Moore's Law plotted here, which relates to density
40
159000
3000
圖上畫出了關於信息密度的摩爾定律
03:01
of information, but it has been pretty good for showing
41
163000
3000
但同時這張圖也很好的體現了
03:04
a lot of other things about information technology --
42
166000
2000
許多其他關於信息技術的內容
03:07
computers, their use, Internet, etc. And what's important
43
169000
3000
其中包括電腦的使用，互聯網等等。最總要的是，
03:11
is it just goes straight up through the top of the curve,
44
173000
3000
這張圖看起來就是一直向上，從圖上垂直的延伸出去了
03:14
and has no real limits to it. Now try and contrast these.
45
176000
5000
完全沒有一個真正的極限。但是我們對比一下
03:20
This is the size of the earth going through that same --
46
182000
2000
這是地球的尺寸。地球的尺寸可是一直沒變。（水平的）
03:22
(Laughter)
47
184000
2000
（笑聲）
03:24
-- frame. And to make it really clear, I've put all four on one graph.
48
186000
6000
為了更好說明這個問題，我把四張圖放到一起
03:30
There's no need to see the little detailed words on it.
49
192000
2000
我們不用看圖上具體的小字
03:33
That first one is humans-versus-nature;
50
195000
4000
第一張是人類和自然的對比
03:38
we've won, there's no more gain. Human population.
51
200000
3000
毫無疑問，我們贏了。 接著是人口圖
03:41
And so if you're looking for growth industries to get into,
52
203000
2000
如果考慮進工業增長的話
03:43
that's not a good one -- protecting natural creatures. Human population
53
205000
5000
就不太妙了，要保護野生的生物啊。
03:48
is going up; it's going to continue for quite a while.
54
210000
2000
人口還在增長。它將在很長一段時間保持增長
03:51
Good business in obstetricians, morticians, and farming, housing, etc. --
55
213000
5000
產科醫生，喪葬業者，農業，建築業的生意都會很紅火
03:57
they all deal with human bodies, which require being fed,
56
219000
5000
這些行業都是和人身體有關的：人的飲食，
04:02
transported, housed and so on. And the information technology,
57
224000
5000
人的交通，居住等等。 而信息技術
04:07
which connects to our brains, has no limit -- now, that is a wonderful
58
229000
3000
是和我們頭腦聯繫在一起的，它沒有極限。
04:11
field to be in. You're looking for growth opportunity?
59
233000
2000
如果你想找一個發展的機會的，這可是個極好的領域！
04:13
It's just going up through the roof.
60
235000
2000
這個領域的未來直上雲霄。
04:16
And then, the size of the Earth. Somehow making these all compatible
61
238000
3000
然而地球的尺寸 在某種程度上限制了所有這些
04:19
with the Earth looks like a pretty bad industry to be involved with.
62
241000
4000
這些發展一牽扯進地球好像就有問題了
04:24
So, that's the stage out of all this. I find,
63
246000
3000
所以這就是目前的狀況
04:28
for reasons I don't understand, I really do have a goal.
64
250000
3000
我發現了很多我不了解的原因，我有個目標
04:31
And the goal is that the world be desirable and sustainable
65
253000
4000
當我的孩子和我一個年齡的時候，
04:35
when my kids reach my age -- and I think that's -- in other words,
66
257000
4000
我希望這個世界變得理想且可持續。也就是說，為了下一代
04:39
the next generation. I think that's a goal that we probably all share.
67
261000
3000
我想這是所有人共同的目標
04:42
I think it's a hopeless goal. Technologically, it's achievable;
68
264000
3000
但我覺得希望渺茫。技術上是可實現的
04:45
economically, it's achievable; politically,
69
267000
3000
經濟上是可實現的，但政治上
04:48
it means sort of the habits, institutions of people -- it's impossible.
70
270000
4000
由於人的慣性和習慣，是不可能實現的。
04:53
The institutions of the past with all their inertia
71
275000
2000
過去的慣例都帶著慣性
04:55
are just irrelevant for the future, except they're there
72
277000
3000
這些慣例和未來不相干，但我們
04:59
and we have to deal with them. I spend about 15 percent of my time
73
281000
6000
還要解決掉它們。我用了15％的時間
05:05
trying to save the world, the other 85 percent, the usual --
74
287000
3000
去保護這個世界，85％的時間
05:08
and whatever else we devote ourselves to.
75
290000
3000
作平常的事
05:11
And in that 15 percent, the main focus is on human mind, thinking skills,
76
293000
5000
在15％的時間，我主要研究人思維的技能
05:17
somehow trying to unleash kids from the straightjacket of school,
77
299000
3000
嘗試將孩子從學校的束縛中釋放出來
05:20
which is putting information and dogma into them,
78
302000
3000
學校用信息和教條束縛孩子
05:23
get them so they really think, ask tough questions, argue
79
305000
3000
我想讓孩子會思考，問問題，討論
05:26
about serious subjects, don't believe everything that's in the book,
80
308000
4000
嚴肅的問題，不要盡信書
05:30
think broadly or creative. They can be.
81
312000
3000
視野寬廣而有創造性。這是可以實現的。
05:33
Our school systems are very flawed and do not reward you
82
315000
4000
我們的教育系統有很大問題。
05:37
for the things that are important in life
83
319000
2000
它不鼓勵那些對人生，或者文明發展
05:39
or for the survival of civilization; they reward you
84
321000
2000
有價值的東西。它鼓勵學生
05:41
for a lot of learning and sopping up stuff.
85
323000
4000
學東西，死記知識
05:46
We can't go into that today because there isn't time --
86
328000
4000
由於時間關係我今天就不說這個話題了
05:50
it's a broad subject. One thing for sure, in the future
87
332000
3000
這牽涉很多。但有一點是肯定的，未來，
05:53
there is an essential feature -- necessary, but not sufficient --
88
335000
7000
有一個基本特徵。必要但不充分。
06:00
which is doing more with less. We've got to be doing things
89
342000
3000
即 用更少的東西完成更多的事。 我們必須有
06:04
with more efficiency using less energy, less material.
90
346000
2000
更高的效率，用更少的能源，材料。
06:06
Your great-great grandparents got by on muscle power,
91
348000
3000
你的祖爺爺靠肌肉的力量生活
06:10
and yet we all think there's this huge power that's essential
92
352000
3000
而我們認為我們的生活也是有一種力量支持的
06:14
for our lifestyle. And with all the wonderful technology we have
93
356000
3000
在美妙科技的支持下
06:18
we can do things that are much more efficient: conserve, recycle, etc.
94
360000
7000
我們可以更有效率的生活：生態保護，循環利用等等
06:26
Let me just rush very quickly through things that we've done.
95
368000
3000
讓我快速談談我們已經取得的成就
06:29
Human-powered airplane -- Gossamer Condor sort of started me
96
371000
3000
人力飛機－“遊絲禿鷲”在1976 1977年
06:32
in this direction in 1976 and 77,
97
374000
5000
啓發了我
06:38
winning the Kremer prize in aviation history,
98
380000
1000
在飛行史上，它贏得了Ｋremer奖
06:40
followed by the Albatross. And we began
99
382000
2000
後來還有一個“信天翁". 接著我們
06:43
making various odd planes and creatures.
100
385000
3000
開始製造各種奇怪的飛機和仿生飛行器
06:46
Here's a giant flying replica of a pterosaur that has no tail.
101
388000
4000
這是一個摹仿 大型無尾儀隴的作品
06:51
Trying to have it fly straight is like trying to shoot an arrow
102
393000
3000
它像一隻箭一樣直線飛
06:54
with the feathered end forward. It was a tough job,
103
396000
3000
尾翼還有羽毛。這很難造
06:57
and boy it made me have a lot of respect for nature.
104
399000
3000
在過程中，我對自然產生了很多敬畏
07:00
This was the full size of the original creature.
105
402000
3000
它和原本生物的尺寸一樣
07:04
We did things on land, in the air, on water --
106
406000
2000
我們造了陸地，空中，水上
07:07
vehicles of all different kinds, usually with some electronics
107
409000
4000
的各種交通工具。通常帶有電子設備
07:11
or electric power systems in them. I find they're all the same,
108
413000
2000
或者電氣系統的。我發現都差不多。
07:14
whether its land, air or water.
109
416000
4000
不管事陸地 空中還是水上的。
07:18
I'll be focusing on the air here. This is a solar-powered airplane --
110
420000
4000
我著重講飛行器。這是一架太陽能驅動的飛機
07:22
165 miles carrying a person from France to England
111
424000
3000
它載著一個人飛了165英里 從法國飛到英國
07:25
as a symbol that solar power is going to be an important part
112
427000
3000
作為一個太陽能的象徵。太陽能未來會很重要
07:29
of our future. Then we did the solar car for General Motors --
113
431000
3000
我們為通用汽車GM做了太陽能車
07:32
the Sunracer -- that won the race in Australia.
114
434000
3000
在澳大利亞贏得了太陽能車的比賽
07:36
We got a lot of people thinking about electric cars,
115
438000
2000
我們很多人在想電動車
07:38
what you could do with them. A few years later, when we suggested to GM that
116
440000
3000
能做甚麼。幾年前，我們告訴通用汽車GM公司
07:41
now is the time and we could do a thing called the Impact,
117
443000
2000
現在是時候了，我們可以造一個叫“影響力”的車
07:44
they sponsored it, and here's the Impact that we developed with them
118
446000
3000
它們贊助了，這就是我們和他們一起開發的 車。
07:47
on their programs. This is the demonstrator. And they put huge effort
119
449000
4000
這是一個概念車。他們投入了很多
07:51
into turning it into a commercial product.
120
453000
3000
去把它變成一個商業產品
07:54
With that preamble, let's show the first two-minute videotape,
121
456000
5000
開場白結束，讓我們看一段兩分鐘的視頻
07:59
which shows a little airplane for surveillance
122
461000
2000
展示了一架小監察幾
08:02
and moving to a giant airplane.
123
464000
2000
怎麼變成一架巨型飛機的。
08:06
Narrator: A tiny airplane, the AV Pointer serves for surveillance --
124
468000
4000
（旁白）：小飛機，AV指針是起監察作用的
08:10
in effect, a pair of roving eyeglasses. A cutting-edge example
125
472000
4000
是一幅粗紗鏡片。一個極端的例子展示
08:14
of where miniaturization can lead if the operator is remote
126
476000
3000
如果操作員在遠處，先導作用的效果
08:17
from the vehicle. It is convenient to carry, assemble
127
479000
3000
它容易帶著，組裝
08:20
and launch by hand. Battery-powered, it is silent and rarely noticed.
128
482000
5000
手動發射。電池供能，很安靜，不容易被發現
08:26
It sends high-resolution video pictures back to the operator.
129
488000
3000
接受高分辨率圖像並發送回操作員
08:29
With onboard GPS, it can navigate autonomously,
130
491000
3000
帶有機載GPS，它可以自動導航
08:33
and it is rugged enough to self-land without damage.
131
495000
3000
很耐用，可以自主降落並沒有損傷。
08:38
The modern sailplane is superbly efficient.
132
500000
2000
現代滑翔機超級高效
08:41
Some can glide as flat as 60 feet forward for every foot of descent.
133
503000
4000
每降低一英尺可以向前平飛60英尺
08:46
They are powered only by the energy
134
508000
1000
它們僅僅靠來自
08:47
they can extract from the atmosphere --
135
509000
2000
大氣的能量。
08:50
an atmosphere nature stirs up by solar energy.
136
512000
3000
大氣被太陽能激起而產生的動能（風和各種空氣亂流）
08:53
Humans and soaring birds have found nature to be generous
137
515000
3000
自然很慷慨的給與人和鳥類
08:56
in providing replenishable energy. Sailplanes have flown
138
518000
4000
可再生的能源。滑翔機最多
09:00
over 1,000 miles, and the altitude record is over 50,000 feet.
139
522000
4000
飛過1000英里，高度紀錄超過50000英尺
09:04
(Music)
140
526000
5000
音樂
09:09
The Solar Challenger was made to serve as a symbol
141
531000
2000
“太陽挑戰者”飛機體現出
09:12
that photovoltaic cells can produce real power
142
534000
3000
光伏電池（太陽照射，產生電流）可以產生真的力量
09:15
and will be part of the world's energy future.
143
537000
2000
將成為世界能源未來的一部分
09:18
In 1981, it flew 163 miles from Paris to England,
144
540000
4000
1981年 它飛了163英里從巴黎到英國
09:22
solely on the power of sunbeams,
145
544000
2000
直利用太陽光束的能量
09:24
and established a basis for the Pathfinder.
146
546000
3000
並為“探路者”飛機打下基礎
09:27
(Music)
147
549000
3000
音樂
09:30
The message from all these vehicles is that ideas and technology
148
552000
4000
這些作品告訴我們 想法和技術
09:34
can be harnessed to produce remarkable gains in doing more with less --
149
556000
4000
可以被用來產生顯著的收益 用更少做更多。
09:39
gains that can help us attain a desirable balance
150
561000
3000
這些收益幫助我們維持一個理想的
09:42
between technology and nature. The stakes are high
151
564000
3000
技術與科技的平衡。 我們高速發展
09:45
as we speed toward a challenging future.
152
567000
2000
有著很大的風險
09:49
Buckminster Fuller said it clearly: "there are no passengers
153
571000
3000
Buckminister Fuller說得很清楚： 在地球這架宇宙艦上
09:52
on spaceship Earth, only crew. We, the crew,
154
574000
4000
沒有旅客，只有船員。我們就是船員，
09:56
can and must do more with less -- much less."
155
578000
4000
我們可以，必需用很少很少做很多的事
10:02
Paul MacCready: If we could have the second video, the one-minute,
156
584000
2000
我們很快的放一下第二個視頻
10:05
put in as quickly as you can, which -- this will show
157
587000
4000
一分鐘的視頻，展示
10:09
the Pathfinder airplane in some flights this past year in Hawaii,
158
591000
9000
探路者 飛機去年在夏威夷的幾個飛行
10:18
and will show a sequence of some of the beauty behind it
159
600000
4000
還有在它飛到71530英尺後
10:22
after it had just flown to 71,530 feet --
160
604000
4000
所留下的一系列美妙事情。
10:27
higher than any propeller airplane has ever flown.
161
609000
3000
它的飛行高度比任何螺旋槳飛機都高
10:30
It's amazing: just on the puny power of the sun --
162
612000
2000
這很奇妙，僅僅靠微薄的太陽能
10:33
by having a super lightweight plane, you're able to get it up there.
163
615000
3000
這家超級輕的飛機就能飛那麼高
10:38
It's part of a long-term program NASA sponsored.
164
620000
3000
它是一個NASA（美國宇航局）長期資助的項目
10:41
And we worked very closely with the whole thing being a team effort,
165
623000
5000
我們緊密的協作
10:47
and with wonderful results like that flight.
166
629000
4000
產生了這此美妙的飛行
10:52
And we're working on a bigger plane -- 220-foot span --
167
634000
2000
我們正在造更大的飛機 220英尺翼展
10:55
and an intermediate-size, one with a regenerative fuel cell
168
637000
2000
以及一個中尺寸的飛機 帶有重複充電燃料電池。
10:58
that can store excess energy during the day, feed it back at night,
169
640000
3000
它可以白天充電，晚上放電繼續使用
11:01
and stay up 65,000 feet for months at a time.
170
643000
3000
並一次保持65000英尺的高度一個月之久
11:05
(Music)
171
647000
5000
音樂
11:10
Ray Morgan's voice will come in here.
172
652000
2000
Ray Morgan會出現
11:12
There he's the project manager. Anything they do
173
654000
2000
他是項目經理。所有這一切都是
11:14
is certainly a team effort. He ran this program. Here's ...
174
656000
5000
團隊協作的結果。他負責這個項目
11:21
some things he showed as a celebration at the very end.
175
663000
3000
這是他在項目結束 慶祝時候說得：
11:25
Ray Morgan: We'd just ended a seven-month deployment of Hawaii.
176
667000
2000
我們剛剛結束在夏威夷一個月的部署
11:29
For those who live on the mainland, it was tough being away from home.
177
671000
3000
對於那些生活在大陸的人，遠離家鄉很難熬
11:35
The friendly support, the quiet confidence, congenial hospitality
178
677000
4000
夏威夷人和軍隊所展現的
11:39
shown by our Hawaiian and military hosts --
179
681000
2000
友好幫助，無聲的信任和適宜的款待
11:41
(Music)
180
683000
3000
音樂
11:44
this is starting --
181
686000
1000
這開始了－
11:45
made the experience enjoyable and unforgettable.
182
687000
2000
使得這個經歷有樂趣且難忘
11:48
PM: We have real-time IR scans going out through the Internet
183
690000
4000
在飛機飛的時候 我們進行了
11:52
while the plane is flying. And it's exploring
184
694000
3000
通過互聯網傳送的實時的紅外線掃描。
11:55
without polluting the stratosphere. That's its goal: the stratosphere,
185
697000
3000
它探測的時候，不會污染平流層。這是它的目的。
11:58
the blanket that really controls the radiation of the earth
186
700000
4000
平流層像一個毯子，保護地球免於輻射
12:02
and permits life on earth to be the success that it is --
187
704000
3000
使得生命在地球上得以繁衍
12:06
probing that is very important. And also we consider it
188
708000
5000
探測平流層很重要。我們還把它當作
12:11
as a sort of poor man's stationary satellite,
189
713000
4000
一種廉價的靜態衛星
12:15
because it can stay right overhead for months at a time,
190
717000
3000
因為它可以靜止在一個地方數月之久
12:19
2,000 times closer than the real GFC synchronous satellite.
191
721000
5000
比真正的同步軌道衛星，離地球近2000倍
12:24
We couldn't bring one here to fly it and show you.
192
726000
4000
我們不能把它帶到著 飛給你看
12:28
But now let's look at the other end.
193
730000
2000
但是來看另一方面。 好。 我給你看－
12:32
In the video you saw that nine-pound or eight-pound Pointer airplane
194
734000
4000
在那個視頻里 你看到了8，9磅重的
12:36
surveillance drone that Keenan has developed
195
738000
4000
Keenan開發的無人偵察機
12:41
and just done a remarkable job. Where some have servos
196
743000
3000
他幹得漂亮。有些飛機的輔助系統
12:44
that have gotten down to, oh, 18 or 25 grams,
197
746000
3000
下降到18或者25克
12:47
his weigh one-third of a gram. And what he's going to bring out here
198
749000
4000
他的僅僅重三分之一克。他要帶過來一個
12:52
is a surveillance drone that weighs about 2 ounces --
199
754000
4000
僅重2盎斯的偵察機
12:56
that includes the video camera, the batteries that run it,
200
758000
3000
其中包括了攝像頭，電池
12:59
the telemetry, the receiver and so on. And we'll fly it, we hope,
201
761000
7000
遙測器，接收機等等。 我們還會飛一下
13:06
with the same success that we had last night when we did the practice.
202
768000
3000
我們希望能和昨天晚上我們試飛的時候一樣成功
13:10
So Matt Keenan, just any time you're --
203
772000
3000
好，Matt Keenan, 等你準備好－
13:13
all right
204
775000
1000
好的
13:14
-- ready to let her go. But first, we're going to make sure
205
776000
4000
準備起飛。首先，我們要確保它的影響能
13:18
that it's appearing on the screen, so you see what it sees.
206
780000
4000
出現在屏幕上，你們能看到飛機看到的東西
13:22
You can imagine yourself being a mouse or fly inside of it,
207
784000
3000
你可以把自己想像成老鼠，在裡邊飛
13:26
looking out of its camera.
208
788000
1000
從攝像頭看出去
13:33
Matt Keenan: It's switched on.
209
795000
1000
開關打開了
13:35
PM: But now we're trying to get the video. There we go.
210
797000
5000
我們要弄好視頻。 好的。
13:41
MK: Can you bring up the house lights?
211
803000
2000
能開一下燈嗎？
13:43
PM: Yeah, the house lights and we'll see you all better
212
805000
2000
好 燈打開了 我們能看得更清楚
13:46
and be able to fly the plane better.
213
808000
1000
然後飛的更好一點
13:48
MK: All right, we'll try to do a few laps around and bring it back in.
214
810000
5000
好，我們飛幾圈就收起來
13:54
Here we go.
215
816000
1000
開始！
14:00
(Applause)
216
822000
8000
掌聲
14:08
PM: The video worked right for the first few and I don't know why it --
217
830000
4000
視頻開始還挺好，我不知道為甚麼－
14:14
there it goes.
218
836000
1000
好了！
14:21
Oh, that was only a minute, but I think you'd be safe
219
843000
4000
喔，只飛一分鐘，但我認為等降落的
14:25
to have that near the end of the flight, perhaps.
220
847000
2000
時候你們是安全的，或許吧。。
14:30
We get to do the classic.
221
852000
1000
我們得來經典得
14:35
All right.
222
857000
1000
好的！
14:36
If this hits you, it will not hurt you.
223
858000
1000
如果撞到你，你不會受傷
14:38
(Laughter)
224
860000
2000
笑聲
14:41
OK.
225
863000
1000
好
14:42
(Applause)
226
864000
16000
掌聲
14:58
Thank you very much. Thank you.
227
880000
1000
十分感謝，謝謝。
14:59
(Applause)
228
881000
7000
掌聲
15:06
But now, as they say in infomercials,
229
888000
2000
現在，如介紹里說得
15:09
we have something much better for you, which we're working on:
230
891000
3000
我們有更好的東西要展示，我們現在正研究的
15:13
planes that are only six inches -- 15 centimeters -- in size.
231
895000
4000
只有6英吋－15厘米的飛機
15:18
And Matt's plane was on the cover of Popular Science last month,
232
900000
5000
Matt的飛機上週是大眾科學的封面
15:24
showing what this can lead to. And in a while, something this size
233
906000
4000
展現了它的未來。很快，這個尺寸的飛機
15:28
will have GPS and a video camera in it. We've had one of these fly
234
910000
6000
就能有GPS和攝像頭了。我們曾經用這樣的飛機
15:34
nine miles through the air at 35 miles an hour
235
916000
3000
飛了9英里，時速35英里每小時
15:37
with just a little battery in it.
236
919000
2000
用一塊小電池
15:39
But there's a lot of technology going.
237
921000
1000
現在有各種技術
15:40
There are just milestones along the way of some remarkable things.
238
922000
5000
這只是通往偉大成就路上的小里程碑
15:45
This one doesn't have the video in it,
239
927000
3000
這架飛機沒有攝像頭
15:48
but you get a little feel from what it can do.
240
930000
3000
但你應該能知道它是做甚麼的
15:52
OK, here we go.
241
934000
2000
好了，起飛！
15:58
(Laughter)
242
940000
6000
（笑聲）
16:04
MK: Sorry.
243
946000
1000
抱歉。。
16:05
OK.
244
947000
1000
好的
16:06
(Applause)
245
948000
4000
（掌聲）
16:10
PM: If you can pass it down when you're done. Yeah, I think --
246
952000
4000
你看完可以傳給別人看。恩，我覺得
16:14
I lost a little orientation; I looked up into this light.
247
956000
3000
我剛才迷失方向了，我一直看光來著，但
16:18
It hit the building. And the building was poorly placed, actually.
248
960000
3000
它撞到房子了。房子位置不佳
16:22
(Laughter)
249
964000
2000
（笑聲）
16:24
But you're beginning to see what can be done.
250
966000
4000
大家現在可以看出來它能幹甚麼了
16:28
We're working on projects now -- even wing-flapping things
251
970000
2000
我們目前研究很多，包括拍打翅膀的東西
16:30
the size of hawk moths -- DARPA contracts, working with Caltech, UCLA.
252
972000
5000
蛾子大小的，DARPA合同的，和加州理工以及UCLA合作的項目
16:36
Where all this leads, I don't know. Is it practical? I don't know.
253
978000
3000
它們的方向是甚麼？我不知道。實用嗎？我還不知道。
16:39
But like any basic research, when you're really forced to do things
254
981000
4000
和基礎研究一樣，被迫做一些
16:43
that are way beyond existing technology,
255
985000
2000
超越現有科技的事情
16:45
you can get there with micro-technology, nanotechnology.
256
987000
3000
你能通過微技術，Nano技術實現。
16:49
You can do amazing things when you realize
257
991000
2000
只要明白自然所作的，你
16:51
what nature has been doing all along. As you get to these small scales,
258
993000
3000
就能完成一些奇妙的事。尺寸上的縮小，
16:54
you realize we have a lot to learn from nature -- not with 747s --
259
996000
4000
我們有很多要從自然學習－不是說747s－
16:58
but when you get down to the nature's realm,
260
1000000
2000
但當你到達自然的領域
17:01
nature has 200 million years of experience.
261
1003000
3000
自然有超過2億年的經驗
17:04
It never makes a mistake. Because if you make a mistake,
262
1006000
3000
它不犯錯。
17:07
you don't leave any progeny.
263
1009000
1000
因為你犯錯不會留下後裔。
17:09
We should have nothing but success stories from nature,
264
1011000
2000
但自然沒有失敗只有成功，對於人類或者鳥類
17:12
for you or for birds, and we're learning a lot
265
1014000
3000
我們正在學習自然
17:16
from its fascinating subjects.
266
1018000
2000
從各種吸引人的領域
17:18
In concluding, I want to get back to the big picture
267
1020000
6000
總結一下，我想宏觀的看問題
17:24
and I have just two final slides to try and put it in perspective.
268
1026000
6000
我有最後兩個幻燈片要展示 並說明一下
17:31
The first I'll just read. At last, I put in three sentences
269
1033000
4000
第一個我就念了。最後，我
17:35
and had it say what I wanted.
270
1037000
2000
把我要說的寫成三個句子
17:37
Over billions of years on a unique sphere, chance has painted
271
1039000
3000
幾十億年來，在這個獨一無二的星球，巧合畫出了
17:40
a thin covering of life -- complex, improbable, wonderful
272
1042000
4000
了無數生命的圖畫：複雜，意想不到，美好
17:44
and fragile. Suddenly, we humans -- a recently arrived species,
273
1046000
3000
且脆弱。突然，我們人類，一個最近產生的種族
17:47
no longer subject to the checks and balances inherent in nature --
274
1049000
4000
不再滿足於自然的現狀和平衡
17:51
have grown in population, technology and intelligence
275
1053000
3000
人口，科技和智慧急遽增長
17:55
to a position of terrible power. We now wield the paintbrush.
276
1057000
3000
擁有了巨大可怖的力量。我們揮舞著畫筆
17:59
And that's serious: we're not very bright. We're short on wisdom;
277
1061000
4000
這很眼中。我們不聰明。我們缺乏智慧
18:03
we're high on technology. Where's it going to lead?
278
1065000
3000
我們科技很強。現在將怎麼發展？
18:07
Well, inspired by the sentences, I decided to wield the paintbrush.
279
1069000
4000
受到這段話的啓發，我決定揮舞畫筆
18:11
Every 25 years I do a picture. Here's the one --
280
1073000
3000
每25年我畫一張圖。 這有一個
18:14
tries to show that the world isn't getting any bigger.
281
1076000
2000
說明地球不再變大
18:17
Sort of a timeline, very non-linear scale, nature rates
282
1079000
4000
一種時間線，非常不線形的刻度，自然比率。
18:21
and trilobites and dinosaurs, and eventually we saw some humans
283
1083000
4000
三葉蟲，恐龍，最後我們看到一些人類
18:25
with caves ... Birds were flying overhead, after pterosaurs.
284
1087000
4000
居住在山洞中的人。翼龍滅絕後，鳥類在飛
18:30
And then we get to the civilization above the little TV set
285
1092000
3000
接著，我們進入了文明時代。電視機上有把槍
18:33
with a gun on it. Then traffic jams, and power systems,
286
1095000
4000
交通堵塞，電力系統
18:37
and some dots for digital. Where it's going to lead -- I have no idea.
287
1099000
4000
點代表數碼。它在向哪裡去？我不知道
18:42
And so I just put robotic and natural cockroaches out there,
288
1104000
4000
所以我畫上了機器的和自然的蟑螂
18:46
but you can fill in whatever you want. This is not a forecast.
289
1108000
3000
不過你業可以畫任何你想的。這不是預測
18:49
This is a warning, and we have to think seriously about it.
290
1111000
4000
這是一個警示。我們需要認真想想
18:53
And that time when this is happening is not 100 years or 500 years.
291
1115000
4000
這不會發生在100或者500年後
18:57
Things are going on this decade, next decade;
292
1119000
5000
是這10年或者下個十年的事情
19:03
it's a very short time that we have to decide what we are going to do.
293
1125000
3000
我們有很短的時間決定向甚麼方向發展
19:08
And if we can get some agreement on where we want the world to be --
294
1130000
3000
如果我們能達成一致
19:12
desirable, sustainable when your kids reach your age --
295
1134000
2000
我們嚮往在孩子長大時，有一個可持續，理想的世界
19:15
I think we actually can reach it. Now, I said this was a warning,
296
1137000
4000
我認為我們能做到。我說這是個警示
19:19
not a forecast. That was before --
297
1141000
2000
不是一個預測。因為之前
19:21
I painted this before we started in on making robotic versions
298
1143000
4000
我畫的時候，我們還沒開始造
19:26
of hawk moths and cockroaches, and now I'm beginning to wonder
299
1148000
3000
機器鷹嘴和機器蟑螂。現在我想
19:30
seriously -- was this more of a forecast than I wanted?
300
1152000
2000
這是個預測而不是我想要得未來？
19:32
I personally think the surviving intelligent life form on earth
301
1154000
3000
我認為持續的智能生命不是碳基生命
19:35
is not going to be carbon-based; it's going to be silicon-based.
302
1157000
3000
而是硅基生命
19:39
And so where it all goes, I don't know.
303
1161000
5000
所以到底怎麼樣，我也不知道
19:45
The one final bit of sparkle we'll put in at the very end here
304
1167000
5000
最後一個靈感小火花
19:51
is an utterly impractical flight vehicle,
305
1173000
4000
是一個非常不實際的飛行器
19:55
which is a little ornithopter wing-flapping device that --
306
1177000
6000
一個小的拍打翅膀的裝置
20:02
rubber-band powered -- that we'll show you.
307
1184000
5000
是橡皮筋供能的。我展示一下
20:12
MK: 32 gram. Sorry, one gram.
308
1194000
2000
32克。錯了，是1克
20:24
PM: Last night we gave it a few too many turns
309
1206000
3000
夠了。昨晚轉太多圈了
20:27
and it tried to bash the roof out also. It's about a gram.
310
1209000
4000
然後它試圖衝出房頂。這1克左右
20:32
The tube there's hollow, about paper-thin.
311
1214000
5000
管子是中空的，和紙一樣厚
20:38
And if this lands on you, I assure you it will not hurt you.
312
1220000
2000
如果在你身上降落，我保證不會傷害你
20:41
But if you reach out to grab it or hold it, you will destroy it.
313
1223000
3000
如果你去抓它，你會毀了它
20:44
So, be gentle, just act like a wooden Indian or something.
314
1226000
5000
所以，溫柔點。
20:49
And when it comes down -- and we'll see how it goes.
315
1231000
3000
降落時候，我們會看到效果
20:55
We consider this to be sort of the spirit of TED.
316
1237000
5000
我把它當成一種TED的精神
21:00
(Applause)
317
1242000
5000
（掌聲）
21:05
And you wonder, is it practical? And it turns out if I had not been --
318
1247000
3000
你覺得，實用嗎？原來我沒有－
21:09
(Laughter)
319
1251000
6000
（笑聲）
21:15
(Applause)
320
1257000
6000
（掌聲）
21:21
Unfortunately, we have some light bulb changes.
321
1263000
3000
看來我們得換燈泡了
21:24
We can probably get it down,
322
1266000
1000
我們應該能把它弄下來
21:25
but it's possible it's gone up to a greater destiny up there --
323
1267000
3000
但可能它在上面是更好的命運吧
21:28
(Laughter)
324
1270000
1000
（笑聲）
21:29
-- than it ever had. And I wanted to make --
325
1271000
3000
－它所能有的命運。然後我想－
21:32
(Applause)
326
1274000
3000
(掌聲)
21:35
just --
327
1277000
1000
－就－
21:36
(Applause)
328
1278000
1000
（掌聲）
21:37
But I want to make just two points. One is, you think it's frivolous;
329
1279000
6000
我想再說兩點。一，你覺得它無足輕重
21:43
there's nothing to it. And yet if I had not been making ornithopters
330
1285000
3000
這東西沒有甚麼意義。但是如果我沒做那樣的撲翼飛機
21:46
like that, a little bit cruder, in 1939 -- a long, long time ago --
331
1288000
6000
稍微再簡陋一些，在1939年，很久以前
21:52
there wouldn't have been a Gossamer Condor,
332
1294000
2000
就不會有“遊絲禿鷲”
21:54
there wouldn't have been an Albatross, a Solar Challenger,
333
1296000
2000
也不會有“信天翁”，不會有“太陽挑戰者”
21:56
there wouldn't be an Impact car, there wouldn't be a mandate
334
1298000
2000
也不會有“影響力”汽車，在加州
21:58
on zero-emission vehicles in California.
335
1300000
3000
也不會有汽車零排放規定
22:01
A lot of these things -- or similar -- would have happened some time,
336
1303000
2000
很多東西，類似的，會在某些時候發生。
22:03
probably a decade later. I didn't realize at the time
337
1305000
3000
可能十年之後。當我和團隊在做調查實踐的時候
22:06
I was doing inquiry-based, hands-on things with teams,
338
1308000
4000
並沒有意識到
22:10
like they're trying to get in education systems.
339
1312000
3000
就像探索改進教育系統一樣
22:13
So I think that, as a symbol, it's important.
340
1315000
3000
所以我想，作為一個標緻是重要的
22:16
And I believe that also is important. You can think of it
341
1318000
3000
我也相信這本身也是重要的。你可以把它
22:19
as a sort of a symbol for learning and TED
342
1321000
7000
看成是TED的一種標誌和 [不清楚]
22:26
that somehow gets you thinking of technology and nature,
343
1328000
4000
它讓人思考科技和自然
22:31
and puts it all together in things that are --
344
1333000
2000
把它融為一體
22:34
that make this conference, I think, more important than any
345
1336000
2000
並創造出這次會議。我想，這才是這十年 這個國家
22:36
that's taken place in this country in this decade.
346
1338000
3000
最重要的事情。
22:39
Thank you. (Applause)
347
1341000
1000
谢谢觀賞。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul MacCready - EngineerPaul MacCready, an aircraft designer and environmentalist, is a pioneer of human-powered flight, alternative energy for transportation, and environmentally responsible design.
Why you should listen
Through his life, Paul MacCready turned his mind, energy and heart toward his two passions: flight and the Earth. His early training as a fighter and glider pilot (glider pilots still use the "MacCready speed ring" he developed after World War II) led him to explore nontraditional flight and nontraditional energy sources.
In the 1970s, he and his company, AeroVironment, designed and built two record-breaking human-powered planes: the Gossamer Condor, the first human-powered aircraft to complete a one-mile course set by the Kremer Prize, and the Gossamer Albatross, the first to cross the English Channel. The planes' avian names reveal the deep insight that MacCready brought to the challenge -- that large birds, in their wing shape and flying style, possess an elegant secret of flight.
He then turned his wide-ranging mind toward environmentally responsible design, informed by his belief that human expansion poses a grave threat to the natural world. His team at AeroVironment prototyped an electric car that became General Motors' pioneering EV-1. They explored alternative energy sources, including building-top wind turbines. And they developed a fleet of fascinating aircraft -- including his Helios solar-powered glider, built to fly in the very top 2 percent of Earth's atmosphere, and the 2005 Global Observer, the first unmanned plane powered by hydrogen cells.
Paul MacCready | Speaker | TED.com