ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Shai Agassi - Green auto pioneer
Shai Agassi wants to put you behind the wheel of an electric car -- but he doesn't want you to sacrifice convenience (or cash) to do it.

Why you should listen

When horrific climate-change scenarios elicit little but endless chatter from governments and entrenched special interests, the difference between talk and action represent an embarrassing gulf. Meet Shai Agassi, who has stepped fearlessly into that gap. His approach to solving the puzzle of electric automobiles could spark nothing short of an automotive revolution.

Agassi stunned the software industry in 2007 by resigning from SAP to focus on his vision for breaking the world's fossil-fuel habit, a cause he had championed since his fuse was lit at a Young Global Leaders conference in 2005. Through his enthusiastic persistence, Agassi's startup Better Place has signed up some impressive partners -- including Nissan-Renault and the countries of Israel and Denmark.

More profile about the speaker
Shai Agassi | Speaker | TED.com
TED2009

Shai Agassi: A new ecosystem for electric cars

夏伊‧阿格西對於電動車的大膽計畫

Filmed:
1,294,939 views

忘了油電混燃車 (Hybrid) 吧,夏伊‧阿格西認為,有效降低二氧化碳排放量的方法,就是使用電動車。他創立的公司 Better Place 有著不同凡響的計劃,讓整個國家在 2020 前,可以不用任何石油。
- Green auto pioneer
Shai Agassi wants to put you behind the wheel of an electric car -- but he doesn't want you to sacrifice convenience (or cash) to do it. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:18
So how would you run a whole整個 country國家 without oil?
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一個國家要是沒有石油會如何?
00:22
That's the question that sort分類 of hit擊中 me
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這問題是我四年前,
00:24
in the middle中間 of a Davos達沃斯 afternoon下午 about four years年份 ago.
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在達沃斯(瑞士)的一個下午突然想到的。
00:27
It never left my brain.
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這問題纏著我好久
00:29
And I started開始 playing播放 with it more like a puzzle難題.
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所以我開始解決這個謎題
00:32
The original原版的 thought I had: this must必須 be ethanol乙醇.
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我原本想,酒精是解決方式
00:34
So I went out and researched研究 ethanol乙醇,
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所以我做了酒精的研究
00:36
and found發現 out you need the Amazon亞馬遜 in your backyard後院 in every一切 country國家.
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發現,每個國家都得要有亞馬遜雨林,才有辦法成功
00:39
About six months個月 later後來 I figured想通 out it must必須 be hydrogen,
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半年後,我覺得氮氣是解決方式
00:42
until直到 some scientist科學家 told me the unfortunate不幸的 truth真相,
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直到一些科學家告訴我這個不幸的事實,
00:45
which哪一個 is, you actually其實 use more
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就是,如果用氮氣,
00:48
clean清潔 electrons電子 than the ones那些 you get
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那我用掉的乾淨電子會比
00:50
inside a car汽車, if you use hydrogen.
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汽車使用的電子還多。
00:52
So that is not going to be the path路徑 to go.
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所以這條路也行不通
00:55
And then sort分類 of through通過 a process處理 of
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所以一連串的嘗試
00:58
wandering飄零 around, I got to the thought
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我終於想到
01:00
that actually其實 if you could convert兌換 an entire整個 country國家 to electric電動 cars汽車,
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如果要整個國家都使用電動車
01:03
in a way that is convenient方便 and affordable實惠,
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那就要讓它方便、便宜
01:06
you could get to a solution.
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才有辦法解決這難題
01:09
Now I started開始 this from a point of view視圖 that
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所以我的出發點是,
01:12
it has to be something that scales en masse集體.
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這解決方式一定要大規模的
01:14
Not how do you build建立 one car汽車,
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跟汽車製造無關
01:16
but how do you scale規模 this so that it can become成為
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而是要讓它的規模大到
01:18
something that is used by 99 percent百分 of the population人口?
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99%的人口都使用
01:23
The thought that came來了 to mind心神 is that it needs需求 to be as good
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我的想法是,這東西一定要
01:26
as any car汽車 that you would have today今天.
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比現在汽車更好
01:28
So one, it has to be more convenient方便 than a car汽車.
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所以,第一:一定要比汽車方便
01:31
And two, it has be more affordable實惠 than today's今天的 cars汽車.
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第二:一定要比現在的車價便宜
01:34
Affordable經濟實惠 is not a 40,000 dollar美元 sedan四門轎車, right?
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一部轎車4萬可不叫便宜
01:37
Alright好的? That's not something that we can finance金融 or buy購買 today今天.
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對吧?這種價格普通人付不起
01:40
And convenient方便 is not something that you drive駕駛 for an hour小時 and charge收費 for eight.
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而開車1小時需充電8小時可不叫方便
01:44
So we're bound with the laws法律 of physics物理
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所以我們需要考慮到物理限制
01:47
and the laws法律 of economics經濟學.
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以及經濟限制
01:49
And so the thought that I started開始 with was
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所以我開始想著
01:52
how do you do this, still within the boundary邊界
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實際的計畫,還得要
01:55
of the science科學 we know today今天 --
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現在科學能達成才行
01:57
no time for science科學 fair公平, no time for playing播放 around with things
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否則我們沒有多餘時間
02:00
or waiting等候 for the magic魔法 battery電池 to show顯示 up.
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研究、等待魔術電池的發明
02:02
How do you do it within the economics經濟學 that we have today今天?
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那要怎麼在現今經濟下達成?
02:04
How do you do it from the power功率 of the consumer消費者 up?
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怎麼促進消費者自發的能力?
02:06
And not from the power功率 of an edict法令 down.
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而非從法令規定下手
02:09
On a random隨機 visit訪問 to Tesla特斯拉 on some afternoon下午,
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有次參觀特斯拉(Tesla美國電動車廠)時,
02:12
I actually其實 found發現 out that the answer回答 comes
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我終於發現,答案就是
02:14
from separating分離 between之間 the car汽車 ownership所有權
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車廠與電池廠的
02:17
and the battery電池 ownership所有權.
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區分機制
02:19
In a sense if you want to think about it this is the classic經典
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你想想就是經典的:
02:22
"batteries電池 not included包括."
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「本品不附電池」
02:25
Now if you separate分離 between之間 the two,
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如果你將兩者分開
02:27
you could actually其實 answer回答 the need for a convenient方便 car汽車
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就是一台便利的車所需要的
02:30
by creating創建 a network網絡,
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就由創造一種網路
02:32
by creating創建 a network網絡 before the cars汽車 show顯示 up.
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在汽車出現前,創造這種網路
02:35
The network網絡 has two components組件 in them.
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這網路有兩個部份
02:38
First component零件 is you charge收費 the car汽車 whenever每當 you stop --
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第一部分:車停的時候,馬上充電
02:41
ends結束 up that cars汽車 are these strange奇怪 beasts獸類 that drive駕駛
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結果是,這些車變成
02:44
for about two hours小時 and park公園 for about 22 hours小時.
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開2小時車,得充電22小時
02:47
If you drive駕駛 a car汽車 in the morning早上 and drive駕駛 it back in the afternoon下午
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如果早上開車出門,下午開車回家
02:51
the ratio of charge收費 to drive駕駛 is about a minute分鐘 for a minute分鐘.
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充電與開車比例是一分鐘比一分鐘
02:54
And so the first thought that came來了 to mind心神 is,
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所以我馬上想到
02:56
everywhere到處 we park公園 we have electric電動 power功率.
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讓所有停車處都要有電力設備
02:59
Now it sounds聲音 crazy. But in some places地方 around the world世界,
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聽起來很瘋狂,但有很多國家
03:01
like Scandinavia斯堪的納維亞, you already已經 have that.
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像是北歐,已經這麼做了
03:04
If you park公園 your car汽車 and didn't plug插頭 in the heater加熱器,
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如果停車的時候,沒插上暖風裝置
03:06
when you come back you don't have a car汽車. It just doesn't work.
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你要開的時候就發不動了
03:09
Now that last mile英里,
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最後一哩,
03:12
last foot腳丫子, in a sense,
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或說最後一步
03:14
is the first step of the infrastructure基礎設施.
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就是基礎建設的第一步
03:15
The second第二 step of the infrastructure基礎設施 needs需求 to take care關心
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第二步就是,基礎建設需要做到
03:17
of the range範圍 extension延期.
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範圍的擴大
03:19
See we're bound by today's今天的 technology技術 on batteries電池,
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電池發展受限於現今的科技
03:22
which哪一個 is about 120 miles英里 if you want to stay within
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已一般空間、重量來算
03:24
reasonable合理 space空間 and weight重量 limitations限制.
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大概是120英里
03:28
120 miles英里 is a good enough足夠 range範圍 for a lot of people.
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120英里對大部份人來說已經足夠
03:32
But you never want to get stuck卡住.
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但沒人希望途中突然沒電
03:34
So what we added添加 is a second第二 element元件 to our network網絡,
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所以我們的網路加進第二部份
03:36
which哪一個 is a battery電池 swap交換 system系統.
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也就是電池交換站
03:38
You drive駕駛. You take your depleted耗盡 battery電池 out.
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你開車,電池沒電了
03:41
A full充分 battery電池 comes on. And you drive駕駛 on.
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到交換站換電池,繼續開
03:44
You don't do it as a human人的 being存在. You do it as a machine.
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非常機械化的過程
03:46
It looks容貌 like a car汽車 wash. You come into your car汽車 wash.
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有點像是洗車服務
03:49
And a plate盤子 comes up, holds持有 your battery電池, takes it out, puts看跌期權 it back in, and
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所以將板子打開,電池取車,充電放入
03:52
within two minutes分鐘 you're back on the road
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不到兩分鐘就可以上路了
03:54
and you can go again.
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就這麼簡單
03:57
If you had charge收費 spots斑點 everywhere到處,
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如果到哪都有充電處、
03:59
and you had battery電池 swap交換 stations everywhere到處,
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到處都有電池交換站
04:01
how often經常 would you do it? And it ends結束 up
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那你多久需要充電一次?
04:03
that you'd do swapping交換 less times than you stop at a gas加油站 station.
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結果是,比你到加油站的數量還少
04:07
As a matter of fact事實, we added添加 to the contract合同.
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事實上,我們契約中有一條
04:10
We said that if you stop to swap交換 your battery電池 more than 50 times a year
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說明,如果你一年需要到充電站超過50次,
04:13
we start開始 paying付款 you money
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我們就會付你錢
04:15
because it's an inconvenience不方便.
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因為這樣對你不便利
04:17
Then we looked看著 at the question of the affordability承受能力.
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再來,我們來看價格問題
04:20
We looked看著 at the question, what happens發生 when the battery電池 is
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我們研究,如果電池與車子分離
04:22
disconnected斷開的 from the car汽車.
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會如何?
04:24
What is the cost成本 of that battery電池?
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那電池花費是多少?
04:26
Everybody每個人 tells告訴 us batteries電池 are so expensive昂貴.
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每個人都反應電池太貴
04:28
What we found發現 out, when you move移動 from molecules分子 to electrons電子,
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我們發現,如果你從分子移到電子
04:31
something interesting有趣 happens發生.
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有趣的事就發生了
04:33
We can go back to the original原版的 economics經濟學 of the car汽車 and look at it again.
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我們回到原本的汽車經濟情況,重新審視
04:36
The battery電池 is not the gas加油站 tank坦克, in a sense.
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電池與油箱,基本上是不同的
04:38
Remember記得 in your car汽車 you have a gas加油站 tank坦克.
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記得汽車是使用油箱
04:40
You have the crude原油 oil.
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獲取原油後
04:42
And you have refining精製 and delivery交貨 of that crude原油 oil
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提煉、運輸,原油就變成
04:44
as what we call petrol汽油 or gasoline汽油.
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我們所使用的汽油
04:46
The battery電池 in this sense, is the crude原油 oil.
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電池某方面來說,就像原油
04:50
We have a battery電池 bay. It costs成本 the same相同 hundred dollars美元
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我們有電池海灣,與油箱的花費相同
04:53
as the gas加油站 tank坦克.
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幾百塊而已
04:55
But the crude原油 oil is replaced更換 with a battery電池.
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但電池取代石油的功能
04:57
Just it doesn't burn燒傷. It consumes消耗 itself本身
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不會燃燒,電池會一步步
04:59
step after step after step.
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自己耗損
05:01
It has 2,000 life cycles週期 these days.
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現在的電池可以充電兩千次
05:03
And so it's sort分類 of a mini微型 well.
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就像個小油井
05:06
We were asked in the past過去 when we bought an electric電動 car汽車
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之前,我們買電動車時
05:08
to pay工資 for the entire整個 well, for the life of the car汽車.
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等於是負擔整個油井的價錢
05:10
Nobody沒有人 wants to buy購買 a mini微型 well when they buy購買 a car汽車.
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沒有人買車時,想花這麼多錢個小油井
05:13
In a sense what we've我們已經 doneDONE is
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所以我們做的是
05:15
we've我們已經 created創建 a new consumable耗材.
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創造一種新耗材
05:17
You, today今天, buy購買 gasoline汽油 miles英里.
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現在大家買的是汽油里程
05:19
And we created創建 electric電動 miles英里.
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我們就創造電子里程
05:22
And the price價錢 of electric電動 miles英里 ends結束 up being存在 a very interesting有趣 number.
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電子里程價錢加起來是個有趣的數字
05:26
Today今天 2010, in volume,
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2010的今日,大量來說
05:28
when we come to market市場, it is eight cents a mile英里.
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我們的市場價格是一英里8分美元
05:32
Those of you who have a hard time calculating計算 what that means手段 --
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如果你數學不好的
05:34
in the average平均 consumer消費者
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美國目前平均
05:37
environment環境 we're in in the U.S.
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汽油花費是
05:39
20 miles英里 per gallon加侖 that's a buck降壓 50, a buck降壓 60 a gallon加侖.
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一加侖20英里,1.5到1.6美金
05:42
That's cheaper便宜 than today's今天的 gasoline汽油, even in the U.S.
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比油價便宜多了,連在美國也一樣
05:46
In Europe歐洲 where taxes are in place地點,
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歐洲因為稅法嚴格
05:49
that's the equivalent當量 to a minus減去 60 dollar美元 barrel.
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計算起來等於一桶負60元美金
05:54
But e-milesE-英里 follow跟隨 Moore's摩爾定律 Law.
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但電子里程根據摩爾定律
05:58
They go from eight cents a mile英里 in 2010,
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2010年的一哩8分美金
06:01
to four cents a mile英里 in 2015,
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到2010年變成4分
06:03
to two cents a mile英里 by 2020.
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2020年只有2分美金
06:07
Why? Because batteries電池 life cycle週期 improve提高 --
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為什麼?因為電池壽命增加-
06:10
a bit of improvement起色 on energy能源 density密度, which哪一個 reduces減少 the price價錢.
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能源密集的技術進步,讓價格降低
06:13
And these prices價格 are actually其實 with clean清潔 electrons電子.
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這些價格都是乾淨的電子
06:16
We do not use any electrons電子 that come from coal煤炭.
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完全沒用到煤炭
06:20
So in a sense this is
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這樣看來
06:22
an absolute絕對 zero-carbon零碳, zero-fossil零化石 fuel汽油
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這是完全無碳、無化石燃料的
06:25
electric電動 mile英里 at two cents a mile英里 by 2020.
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電子里程在2020年,一哩只要2分錢
06:29
Now even if we get to 40 miles英里 per gallon加侖
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如果順利的話,2020年的石油
06:31
by 2020, which哪一個 is our desire慾望.
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若達到一加崙40哩
06:33
Imagine想像 only 40 miles英里 per gallon加侖 cars汽車 would be on the road.
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想像一加崙40哩在路上跑
06:36
That is an 80 cent一分錢 gallon加侖.
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一加崙等於80分
06:38
An 80 cent一分錢 gallon加侖 means手段, if the entire整個 Pacific和平的
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一加崙80分等於是等個太平洋
06:40
would convert兌換 to crude原油 oil,
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都變成原油才能達成
06:42
and we'd星期三 let any oil company公司 bring帶來 it out and refine提煉 it,
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然後讓石油公司獲取、提煉
06:45
they still can't compete競爭 with two cents a mile英里.
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還是無法與一哩2分錢比較
06:49
That's a new economic經濟 factor因子,
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這是個新的經濟因素
06:51
which哪一個 is fascinating迷人 to most people.
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大部分人都感興趣
06:53
Now this would have been a wonderful精彩 paper.
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寫成論文發表應該也不錯
06:55
That's how I solved解決了 it in my head. It was a white白色 paper I handed out to governments政府.
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這是我腦子裡的想法,送給一些政府看的是一份白皮書
06:58
And some governments政府 told me that it's fascinating迷人
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有些政府官員告訴我,他們覺得很有趣
07:00
that the younger更年輕 generation actually其實 thinks about these things.
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年輕人竟然會去關心這種事
07:03
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
07:04
Until直到 I got to the
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直到我連絡上
07:06
true真正 young年輕 global全球 leader領導, Shimon西蒙 Peres佩雷斯, President主席 of Israel以色列,
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真正、年輕的全球領袖-以色列總統西蒙‧佩雷斯(Shimon Peres)
07:09
and he ran a beautiful美麗 manipulation操作 on me.
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他後來擺了我一道
07:12
First he let me go to the prime主要 minister部長 of the country國家,
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首先他讓我去找總理
07:14
who told me, if you can find the money you need for this network網絡,
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總理告訴我,如果我能籌到建構這網路所需的
07:16
200 million百萬 dollars美元,
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兩億美金
07:18
and if you can find a car汽車 company公司
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還有,找到一家車廠
07:20
that will build建立 that car汽車 in mass volume,
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願意大量生產以色列所需的
07:22
in two million百萬 cars汽車 -- that's what we needed需要 in Israel以色列 --
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兩百萬台電動車
07:24
I'll give you country國家 to invest投資 the 200 million百萬 into.
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他就給我一個國家讓我實行這計畫
07:28
Peres佩雷斯 thought that was a great idea理念.
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佩雷斯覺得這是個好點子
07:31
So we went out, and we looked看著 at all the car汽車 companies公司.
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所以我們開始尋找車商
07:35
We sent發送 letters to all the car汽車 companies公司.
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寄信給他們
07:37
Three of them never showed顯示 up. One of them asked us
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有三家完全不搭理,其中一家說
07:39
if we would stay with hybrids混合動力車 and they would give us a discount折扣.
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如果我們繼續用油電混燃車(hybrid),就給我們打折
07:42
But one of them Carlos卡洛斯 Ghosn戈恩, CEOCEO of Renault雷諾 and Nissan日產,
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但其中一位,雷諾-日產的總裁卡洛斯·戈恩(Carlos Ghosn)
07:45
when asked about hybrids混合動力車 said something very fascinating迷人.
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說了一段我們覺得很棒的話
07:48
He said hybrids混合動力車 are like mermaids美人魚.
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他說,油電混燃車就像美人魚
07:50
When you want a fish you get a woman女人 and
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你要魚的時候,得到的是美人
07:52
when you need a woman女人 you get a fish.
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你要美人的時候,得到的是魚
07:54
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
07:57
And Ghosn戈恩 came來了 up and said,
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戈恩就說:
07:59
"I have the car汽車, Mr先生. Peres佩雷斯; I will build建立 you the cars汽車."
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「我有車,佩雷斯總統,我可以幫你製造車子」
08:01
And actually其實 true真正 to form形成, Renault雷諾 has put a billion十億 and a half dollars美元
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這是真的,雷諾投入了15億資金
08:04
in building建造 nine different不同 types類型 of cars汽車 that fit適合 this kind of model模型
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生產了九種不同款式的電動車
08:07
that will come into the market市場 in mass volume --
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將會大量上市
08:10
mass volume being存在 the first year, 100 thousand cars汽車.
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第一年的數量將達十萬部
08:13
It's the first mass-volume質量 - 體積 electric電動 car汽車,
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這是第一批大量生產的電動車
08:15
zero-emission零排放 electric電動 car汽車 in the market市場.
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零排放量的電動車上市了
08:18
I was running賽跑, as Chris克里斯 said,
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如Chris介紹,我當時
08:22
to be the CEOCEO of a large software軟件 company公司 called SAP樹液
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正在爭取SAP(軟體公司)執行長的位子
08:25
And then Peres佩雷斯 said, "Well won't慣於 you run this project項目?"
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然後佩雷斯要求我負責這個專案
08:29
And I said, "I'm ready準備 for CEOCEO" And he said,
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我說,我已經要接任執行長了,他告訴我,
08:31
"Oh no no no no no. You've got to explain說明 to me,
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「不不不,除非你能告訴我,」
08:34
what is more important重要 than saving保存 your country國家 and saving保存 the world世界,
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「有什麼事會比拯救你的國家、世界更重要,」
08:36
that you would go and do?"
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「而且你非做不可的?」
08:38
And I had to quit放棄 and come and do this thing called A Better Place地點.
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所以我辭了CEO,專心弄A Better Place公司
08:40
We then decided決定 to scale規模 it up.
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後來我們決定擴大規模
08:43
We went to other countries國家. As I said we went to Denmark丹麥.
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我們到其他國家--丹麥
08:45
And Denmark丹麥 set this beautiful美麗 policy政策;
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丹麥有個美妙的政策
08:47
it's called the IQ智商 test測試.
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叫智力測驗
08:49
It's inversely成反比 proportional成比例的 to taxes.
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測驗成績與稅額成反比
08:51
They put 180 percent百分 tax on gasoline汽油 cars汽車
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他們對汽車課了180%的稅
08:55
and zero tax on zero-emission零排放 cars汽車.
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零排放量的車就免稅
08:57
So if you want to buy購買 a gasoline汽油 car汽車 in Denmark丹麥, it costs成本 you about 60,000 Euros歐元.
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在丹麥,買部汽車要花六萬歐元
09:01
If you buy購買 our car汽車 it's about 20,000 Euros歐元.
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買電動車只要兩萬歐元
09:03
If you fail失敗 the IQ智商 test測試 they ask you to leave離開 the country國家.
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如果智力測驗結果太低,就會被逼離丹麥
09:06
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
09:08
We then were sort分類 of coined創造 as the guys
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大家對我們的印象就是
09:10
who run only in small islands島嶼.
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只在小島活動而已
09:12
I know most people don't think of Israel以色列 as a small island,
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我知道大部分人,不認為以色列是小島
09:14
but Israel以色列 is an island -- it's a transportation運輸 island.
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但它的確是座島,一座運輸島
09:17
If your car汽車 is driving主動 outside Israel以色列 it's been stolen被盜.
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如果發現你的車開出以色列,一定是被偷了
09:20
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
09:22
If you're thinking思維 about it in terms條款 of islands島嶼,
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如果要以島作為目標
09:25
we decided決定 to go to the biggest最大 island that we could find,
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我們決定去世上最大的島
09:27
and that was Australia澳大利亞. The third第三 country國家 we announced公佈 was Australia澳大利亞.
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就是澳洲了,第三個目的地就是澳洲
09:30
It's got three centers中心 --
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它有三大城:
09:32
in Brisbane布里斯班, in Melbourne墨爾本, in Sydney悉尼 --
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墨爾本、布里斯本、雪梨
09:35
and one freeway高速公路, one electric電動 freeway高速公路 that connects所連接 them.
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一條電動高速公路連結三地
09:37
The next下一個 island
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下一座島
09:39
was not too hard to find, and that was Hawaii夏威夷.
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不難找,就是夏威夷
09:41
We decided決定 to come into the U.S.
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我們決定進軍美國
09:43
and pick the two best最好 places地方 --
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選了最棒的兩個地點
09:45
the one where you didn't need any range範圍 extension延期.
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第一個地點,不需要擴大規模
09:47
Hawaii夏威夷 you can drive駕駛 around the island on one battery電池.
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在夏威夷,一顆電池就能跑整座島
09:49
And if you really have a long day you can switch開關,
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如果要開一整天,頂多再換上一顆電池
09:51
and keep on driving主動 around the island.
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就能繼續開車環島
09:53
The second第二 one was the San Francisco弗朗西斯科 Bay Area
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第二個地點,是舊金山灣區
09:55
where Gavin加文 Newsom紐森 created創建 a beautiful美麗 policy政策 across橫過 all the mayors市長.
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市長Gavin Newsom定了個全新政策
09:58
He decided決定 that he's going to take over
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他決定掌管整個加州
10:00
the state, unofficially非正式地, and then officially正式,
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先非正式接收、再正式接收
10:03
and then created創建 this beautiful美麗 Region地區 One policy政策.
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這美妙的政策叫第一區政策
10:07
In the San Francisco弗朗西斯科 Bay Area not only do you have
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舊金山灣區有密度最高的
10:09
the highest最高 concentration濃度 of Priuses普銳斯,
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豐田(油電兩用車Prius)數量
10:11
but you also have the perfect完善 range範圍 extender擴展.
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還有最完美的增程引擎(電力用完後使用燃油)
10:13
It's called the other car汽車.
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被稱為「另類車」
10:15
As we stared盯著 scaling縮放 it up
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我們開始擴大規模
10:18
we looked看著 at what is the problem問題 to come up to the U.S.?
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想想美國所面臨的問題
10:21
Why is this a big issue問題?
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到底是什麼?
10:23
And the most fascinating迷人 thing we've我們已經 learned學到了 is that,
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我們所學到最有趣的事情就是
10:25
when you have small problems問題 on the individual個人 level水平,
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當你以個人層面來思考小問題
10:28
like the price價錢 of gasoline汽油 to drive駕駛 every一切 morning早上.
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像是每天要加的油價
10:31
You don't notice注意 it, but when the aggregate骨料 comes up
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平常不會注意,但所有油價加總起來
10:33
you're dead. Alright好的?
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會嚇死人,對吧?
10:35
So the price價錢 of oil, much like
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所以油價,
10:38
lots of other curves曲線 that we've我們已經 seen看到,
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如我們看到的曲線
10:40
goes along沿 a depletion消耗 curve曲線.
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是呈現消減狀態的
10:42
The foundation基礎 of this curve曲線 is that we keep losing失去 the wells that are close to the ground地面.
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曲線幅度之所以越來越大,是因為接近地面的石油漸漸挖光了
10:45
And we keep getting得到 wells that are farther更遠 away from the ground地面.
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我們就必須挖的更深
10:48
It becomes more and more and more expensive昂貴 to dig them out.
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所以開挖石油越來越貴
10:50
You think, well it's been up, it's been down,
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想想看,曲線上升又下降
10:53
its been up, it's going to keep on going up and down.
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上升過了,又會下降再上升
10:55
Here is the problem問題:
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問題來了:
10:57
at 147 dollars美元 a barrel, which哪一個 we were in six months個月 ago,
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半年前的一桶147美元價格
11:00
the U.S. spent花費 a ton of money to get oil.
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美國花了一大把錢獲得石油
11:04
Then we lost丟失 our economy經濟 and we went back down to 47 --
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經濟蕭條後回到47美元
11:07
sometimes有時 it's 40, sometimes有時 it's 50.
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偶爾在40到50元間浮動
11:09
Now we're running賽跑 a stimulus刺激物 package.
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現在提倡的振興經濟方案
11:11
It's called the trillion-dollar萬億美元 stimulus刺激物 package.
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一兆元振興經濟方案
11:13
We're going to revive復活 the economy經濟. Hopefully希望 it happens發生 between之間 now and 2015,
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我們拿來救經濟,希望到2015年能達成
11:17
somewhere某處 in that space空間.
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約五年的時間
11:19
What happens發生 when the economy經濟 recovers復甦?
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那經濟復甦後會發生什麼事呢?
11:22
By 2015 we would have had at least最小 250 million百萬 new cars汽車
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到2015年,我們會生產至少兩億五千萬部新車
11:27
even at the pace步伐 we're going at right now.
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以目前的速度推算
11:29
That's another另一個 30 percent百分 demand需求 on oil.
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石油的供應會增加30%
11:31
That is another另一個 25 million百萬 barrels a day.
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等於一天需要額外2500萬桶石油
11:34
That's all the U.S. usage用法 today今天.
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這是現今全美的需求量
11:38
In other words at some point when we've我們已經 recovered恢復 we go up to the peak.
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換句話說,當我們景氣回升到頂點
11:41
And then we do the OPEC歐佩克 stimulus刺激物 package
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當我們實行石油輸出國家組織(OPEC)的
11:43
also known已知 as 200 dollars美元 a barrel.
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一桶200美元刺激方案
11:45
We take our money and we give it away.
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錢花掉後,還是回到原點
11:47
You know what happens發生 at that point?
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到時候會發生什麼事?
11:49
We go back down. It's going to go up and down.
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我們會走下坡,上上下下
11:51
And the downs起伏 are going to be much longer
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下坡將會更久
11:53
and the upsUPS are going to be much shorter.
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復原將會更慢
11:55
And that's the difference區別 between之間 problems問題 that are additive添加劑,
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這之間的差距就是附加性的問題:
11:58
like COCO2, which哪一個 we go slowly慢慢地 up and then we tip小費,
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像二氧化碳,慢慢增加後到達頂點;
12:01
and problems問題 that are depletive放血的,
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以及耗減性的問題:
12:03
in which哪一個 we lose失去 what we have,
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我們資源慢慢耗盡;
12:05
which哪一個 oscillate擺動, and they oscillate擺動 until直到
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兩種問題造成曲線的不斷波動
12:07
we lose失去 everything we've我們已經 got.
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直到失去所有東西為止
12:11
Now we actually其實 looked看著 at what the answer回答 would be.
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所以我們開始找尋答案
12:13
Right? Remember記得 in the campaign運動: one million百萬
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是吧?記住這口號,2015年以前,
12:15
hybrid混合動力 cars汽車 by 2015.
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油電混燃車數量將達一百萬部
12:19
That is 0.5 percent百分 of the U.S. oil consumption消費.
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這是美國石油耗量的0.5%
12:23
That is oh point oh well percent百分 of the rest休息 of the world世界.
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其他國家的零點零幾
12:28
That won't慣於 do much difference區別.
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改變實在不大
12:30
We looked看著 at an MITMIT study研究:
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來看麻省理工學院的研究
12:32
ten million百萬 electric電動 cars汽車 on the global全球 roads道路.
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全球一千萬部電動車在跑
12:35
Ten million百萬 out of 500 million百萬 we will add between之間 now and then.
284
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我們目標五億台電動車中的一千萬部而已
12:39
That is the most pessimistic悲觀 number you can have.
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感覺起來離目標還很遠
12:41
It's also the most optimistic樂觀 number
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但這數字同時也表示
12:43
because it means手段 we will scale規模 this industry行業
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我們對於未來發展有樂觀的前景
12:46
from 100 thousand cars汽車 is 2011,
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從2011年的十萬部車
12:48
to 10 million百萬 cars汽車 by 2016 --
289
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到2016年的一千萬部車-
12:52
100 x growth發展 in less than five years年份.
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不到五年,100倍的成長
12:57
You have to remember記得 that the world世界 today今天 is bringing使 in so many許多 cars汽車.
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要想想,世界對於車子的需求有多龐大
13:00
We have 10 million百萬 cars汽車 by region地區.
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各地區約一千萬部
13:03
That's an enormous巨大 amount of cars汽車.
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車子的數量很驚人
13:05
China中國 is adding加入 those cars汽車 --
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中國的汽車數量增加,
13:07
India印度, Russia俄國, Brazil巴西.
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還有印度、俄羅斯、巴西
13:09
We have all these regions地區.
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這些地方都要算進來
13:11
Europe歐洲 has solved解決了 it. They just put a tax on gasoline汽油.
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歐洲已經解決了,他們增加石油稅
13:13
They'll他們會 be the first in line to get off
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將會率先解決石油問題
13:15
because their prices價格 are high.
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因為油價過高
13:17
China中國 solves解決了 it by an edict法令. At some point they'll他們會 just declare宣布
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中國只要一個政策下去便能解決,
13:19
that no gasoline汽油 car汽車 will come into a city, and that will be it.
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只要宣佈不再進口石油,一下就能解決了
13:23
The Indians印度人 don't even understand理解 why we think of it as a problem問題
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印度人,還沒意識到發生什麼事
13:26
because most people in India印度 fill two or three gallons加侖 every一切 time.
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印度大部分人,每次只加2到3加侖的油
13:28
For them to get a battery電池 that goes 120 miles英里
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對他們來說,買顆會跑120哩的電池
13:31
is an extension延期 on range範圍, not a reduction減少 in range範圍.
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距離不夠長,其實用不到這麼多
13:35
We're the only ones那些 who don't have the price價錢 set right.
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我們幾乎是唯一油價沒定對、
13:38
We don't have the industry行業 set right.
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工業設置也不對的國家
13:40
We don't have any incentive激勵 to go and resolve解決 it
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我們根本也沒有誘因
13:42
across橫過 the U.S.
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去解決這問題
13:44
Now where is the car汽車 industry行業 on that?
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那汽車工業的立場呢?
13:46
Very interesting有趣. The car汽車 industry行業 has been focused重點 just on themselves他們自己.
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很有趣的是,汽車工業只專注於它們自己
13:49
They basically基本上 looked看著 at it and said, "Car汽車 1.0
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他們隨便研究了一下,就覺得
13:51
we'll solve解決 everything within the car汽車 itself本身."
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新版汽車1.0就會解決目前的問題
13:55
No infrastructure基礎設施, no problem問題.
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不需要基礎建設、沒有問題
13:58
We forgot忘記 about the entire整個 chain around us.
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我們忘了身邊整個大環節
14:01
All this stuff東東 that happens發生 around.
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身旁已經發生的所有事
14:03
We are looking at the emergence緊急情況 of a car汽車 2.0 --
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我們現在已經有2.0版的車了
14:06
a whole整個 new market市場, a whole整個 new business商業 model模型.
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一個新市場、新商業模型
14:09
The business商業 model模型 in which哪一個 the money that is actually其實 coming未來 in,
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這商業模型,其實會讓車子
14:12
to drive駕駛 the car汽車 --
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越開越便宜
14:14
the minutes分鐘, the miles英里 if you want,
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里程數、分鐘數這些
14:16
that you are all familiar with --
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你們都清楚的概念
14:18
subsidize資助 the price價錢 of the car汽車,
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是可以補貼車價的
14:21
just like cellphones手機. You'll你會 pay工資 for the miles英里.
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就像手機,里程數也是用付的
14:23
And some of it will go back to the car汽車 maker製作者.
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一部份會回到車商身上
14:25
Some of it will go back to your own擁有 pocket口袋.
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一部分回到自己口袋
14:28
But our cars汽車 are actually其實 going to be cheaper便宜 than gasoline汽油 cars汽車.
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但電動車將會比汽車便宜
14:31
You're looking at a world世界 where cars汽車 are matched匹配 with windmills風車.
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未來的世界,車子將會是風力發電
14:35
In Denmark丹麥, we will drive駕駛 all the cars汽車 in Denmark丹麥
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在丹麥,大家所開的車
14:38
from windmills風車, not from oil.
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都來自風力發電,而非石油
14:41
In Israel以色列, we've我們已經 asked to put a solar太陽能 farm農場
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在以色列,我們要求在南部設置
14:45
in the south of Israel以色列.
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太陽能電廠
14:47
And people said, "Oh that's a very very large space空間 that you're asking for."
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有人質疑:「你要求的土地很大一塊欸」
14:50
And we said, "What if we had proven證明 that in the same相同 space空間
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我們就問:「如果我們能證明」
14:52
we found發現 oil for the country國家 for the next下一個 hundred years年份?"
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「該地有可供我國下一世紀的石油量呢?」
14:55
And they said, "We tried試著. There isn't any."
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他們說:「我們調查過了,沒石油」
14:57
We said, "No no, but what if we prove證明 it?"
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我們說:「不,我可以證明有。」
14:59
And they said, "Well you can dig." And we decided決定 to dig up,
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「那你們開挖吧。」但我們決定往上建造(太陽能廠)
15:01
instead代替 of digging挖掘 down.
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而非向下開挖
15:03
These are perfect完善 matches火柴 to one another另一個.
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石油與電力是相匹配的
15:06
Now all you need is about 10 percent百分
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而且只需要
15:09
of the electricity電力 generated產生.
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總發電量的10%
15:11
Think of it as a project項目 that spans跨度 over about 10 years年份.
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當成是個可運行十年的計畫
15:14
That's one percent百分 a year.
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一年是1%
15:16
Now when we're looking at solving big problems問題,
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現在我們來看要怎麼解決大問題
15:19
we need to start開始 thinking思維 in two numbers數字.
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我們必須從兩個數字來考量
15:21
And those are not 20 percent百分 by 2020.
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這兩個數字不是2020年達到20%
15:23
The two numbers數字 are zero -- as in zero footprint腳印 or zero oil --
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這兩個數字分別是零- 0碳足跡、0石油;
15:28
and scale規模 it infinity無窮.
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然後乘以無限大∞
15:31
And when we go to COP警察15 at the end結束 of this year
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到哥本哈根開第15屆氣候變遷會議(COP15)時
15:33
we can't stop thinking思維 of padding填充 COCO2.
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我們不能只想著漸增的二氧化碳量
15:35
We have to start開始 thinking思維 about giving kickers踢球 to countries國家
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我們必須想一些方法,讓世界各國
15:37
that are willing願意 to go to this kind of scale規模.
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能自發地開始做改變
15:40
One car汽車 emits發射 four tons.
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一輛車有四噸的排放量
15:42
And actually其實 700 and change更改 million百萬 cars汽車 today今天
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現在的七億多輛汽車
15:44
emit發射 2.8 billion十億 tons of COCO2.
356
926000
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排放28億二氧化碳
15:47
That's, in the additive添加劑, about 25 percent百分 of our problem問題.
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這是附加性問題,僅是我們所面臨問題的25%
15:50
Cars汽車 and trucks卡車 add up to about 25 percent百分 of the world's世界 COCO2 emissions排放.
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汽車、卡車加起來約是全世界二氧化碳排放量的25%
15:55
We have to come and attack攻擊 this problem問題
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我們需要一同解決這個問題
15:57
with a focus焦點, with an effort功夫 that actually其實 says,
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專心、致力於這個目標
15:59
we're going to go to zero before the world世界 ends結束.
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世界毀滅前,排放量降到零
16:02
I actually其實 shared共享 that with some legislators立法者 here in the U.S.
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我與一些美國國會議員討論過
16:06
I shared共享 it with a gentleman紳士 called Bobby鮑比 Kennedy肯尼迪 JrJR., who is one of my idols偶像.
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有位羅伯特甘迺迪二世,他是我的偶像
16:11
I told him one of the reasons原因 that
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953000
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我告訴他,他的叔叔(甘迺迪總統)
16:13
his uncle叔叔 was remembered記得
365
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被世人記著的原因之一
16:15
is because he said we're going to send發送 a man to the moon月亮,
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是因為他當初堅決要在十年之內
16:18
and we'll do it by the end結束 of the decade.
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將人類送上月球並安全地返回
16:20
We didn't say we're going to send發送 a man 20 percent百分 to the moon月亮.
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他並沒有說,我們送一個人的20%上月球
16:23
And there will be about a 20 percent百分 chance機會 we'll recover恢復 him.
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然後他回來的機率有20%
16:26
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
16:29
He actually其實 shared共享 with me another另一個 story故事, which哪一個 is from about 200 years年份 ago.
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羅伯特告訴了我一個200年前的故事
16:33
200 years年份 ago, in Parliament議會, in Great Britain英國,
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200年前,英國的國會
16:36
there was a long argument論據
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有個很長的辯論
16:38
over economy經濟 versus morality道德.
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有關於經濟與道德
16:40
25 percent百分 -- just like 25 percent百分 emissions排放 today今天 comes from cars汽車 --
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如現今我們有25%的排放量來自汽車
16:44
25 percent百分 of their energy能源
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當時全英國的工業,
16:47
for the entire整個 industrial產業 world世界 in the U.K.
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有25%的力量來源
16:50
came來了 from a source資源 of energy能源 that was immoral不道德:
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都來自非常不道德的
16:53
human人的 slaves奴隸.
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奴隸市場
16:55
And there was an argument論據. Should we stop using運用 slaves奴隸?
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所以辯論是,我們是否該停用奴隸?
16:58
And what would it do to our economy經濟?
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這樣對經濟有何影響?
17:00
And people said, "Well we need to take time to do it.
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有些人說:「我們應該一步步來」
17:02
Let's not do it immediately立即. Maybe we free自由 the kids孩子
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「也許先從解放童工開始,」
17:04
and keep the slaves奴隸.
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「奴隸還是留著。」
17:07
And after a month of arguments參數 they decided決定 to stop slavery奴隸制度,
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長達一個月的辯論,他們決定禁止使用奴隸
17:10
and the industrial產業 revolution革命 started開始 within less than one year.
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之後一年內,工業革命開始了
17:14
And the U.K. had 100 years年份 of economic經濟 growth發展.
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而英國就有了100年的經濟成長
17:18
We have to make the right moral道德 decision決定.
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我們必須做出對的道德決定
17:21
We have to make it immediately立即.
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並且需要立刻決定
17:24
We need to have presidential總統 leadership領導
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我們需要總統級的領導
17:26
just like we had in Israel以色列 that said we will end結束 oil.
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就像以色列決定停用石油
17:30
And we need to do it not within 20 years年份 or 50 years年份,
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我們需要在這個總統任期內達成
17:34
but within this presidential總統 term術語
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而非20、50年
17:37
because if we don't, we will lose失去 our economy經濟,
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如果不這麼做,我們在失去經濟能力前
17:41
right after we'd星期三 lost丟失 our morality道德.
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將先失去我們的道德觀
17:43
Thank you all very much.
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謝謝各位
17:45
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by Adrienne Lin
Reviewed by Geoffrey Chen

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Shai Agassi - Green auto pioneer
Shai Agassi wants to put you behind the wheel of an electric car -- but he doesn't want you to sacrifice convenience (or cash) to do it.

Why you should listen

When horrific climate-change scenarios elicit little but endless chatter from governments and entrenched special interests, the difference between talk and action represent an embarrassing gulf. Meet Shai Agassi, who has stepped fearlessly into that gap. His approach to solving the puzzle of electric automobiles could spark nothing short of an automotive revolution.

Agassi stunned the software industry in 2007 by resigning from SAP to focus on his vision for breaking the world's fossil-fuel habit, a cause he had championed since his fuse was lit at a Young Global Leaders conference in 2005. Through his enthusiastic persistence, Agassi's startup Better Place has signed up some impressive partners -- including Nissan-Renault and the countries of Israel and Denmark.

More profile about the speaker
Shai Agassi | Speaker | TED.com