TED2012
Rob Reid: The $8 billion iPod
Rob Reid: iPod'en til $8 milliarder
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Komedieforfatter Rob Reid afslører ophavsretsmatematik (TM), et bemærkelsesværdigt nyt felt til forskning, baseret på faktiske tal fra underholdningsbranchens advokater og lobbyister.
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneur
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
The recent debate over copyright laws
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Den seneste debat omkring lov om ophavsret
00:17
like SOPA in the United States
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som SOPA i USA
00:19
and the ACTA agreement in Europe
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og ACTA-aftalen i Europa
00:21
has been very emotional.
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har været meget følelsesladet.
00:23
And I think some dispassionate, quantitative reasoning
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Og jeg tror at lidenskabsløst,
kvantitativt ræsonnement
kvantitativt ræsonnement
00:26
could really bring a great deal to the debate.
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virkelig kunne bidrage en hel del til denne debat
00:28
I'd therefore like to propose
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Jeg vil derfor have lov til at foreslå
00:30
that we employ, we enlist,
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at vi anvender, vi hverver,
00:32
the cutting edge field of copyright math
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det mest udviklede felt af
ophavsretsmatematik
ophavsretsmatematik
00:34
whenever we approach this subject.
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når end vi beskæftiger os med dette område.
00:36
For instance, just recently
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For eksempel, for nyligt
00:38
the Motion Picture Association revealed
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afslørede Motion Picture Association
00:40
that our economy loses 58 billion dollars a year
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at vores økonomi taber 58 milliarder
dollars hvert år
dollars hvert år
00:43
to copyright theft.
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til ophavsretstyveri.
00:46
Now rather than just argue about this number,
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I stedet for bare at diskutere dette tal,
00:48
a copyright mathematician will analyze it
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en ophavsretsmatematiker vil analysere det
00:51
and he'll soon discover that this money
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og hurtigt vil han opdage at de penge
00:53
could stretch from this auditorium
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kunne strække sig fra dette auditorium
00:55
all the way across Ocean Boulevard
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hele vejen forbi Ocean Boulevard
00:57
to the Westin, and then to Mars ...
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til Westin, og så til Mars...
01:00
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
01:02
... if we use pennies.
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... hvis vi bruger øre.
01:05
Now this is obviously a powerful,
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Dette er tydeligvis en magtfuld,
01:07
some might say dangerously powerful, insight.
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nogle ville måske sige faretruende magtfuld indsigt.
01:10
But it's also a morally important one.
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Men det er også en moralsk vigtig en af slagsen.
01:12
Because this isn't just the hypothetical retail value
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Fordi dette er ikke bare den hypotetiske salgsværdi
01:15
of some pirated movies that we're talking about,
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af nogle piratkopierede film, som vi snakker om,
01:17
but this is actual economic losses.
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men dette er faktisk økonomiske tab.
01:19
This is the equivalent
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Det er svarende
01:21
to the entire American corn crop failing
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til at alle de amerikanske majsafgrøder fejler
01:23
along with all of our fruit crops,
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sammen med alle vores frugtafgrøder,
01:26
as well as wheat, tobacco,
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samt hvede, tobak,
01:28
rice, sorghum --
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ris, durra --
01:30
whatever sorghum is -- losing sorghum.
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hvad end durra er -- vi taber durra.
01:34
But identifying the actual losses to the economy
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Men at identificere det egentlige økonomiske tab
01:37
is almost impossible to do
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er nærmest umuligt at gøre
01:39
unless we use copyright math.
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medmindre vi bruger ophavsretsmatematik.
01:41
Now music revenues are down by about eight billion dollars a year
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Musikindtægter er nu faldet med omkring otte
milliarder dollars om året
milliarder dollars om året
01:44
since Napster first came on the scene.
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siden Napster først kom på scenen.
01:46
So that's a chunk of what we're looking for.
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Så det er en sjat af det vi kigger efter.
01:49
But total movie revenues
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Men de samlede filmindtægter
01:51
across theaters, home video and pay-per-view are up.
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på tværs af biografer, privatsalg og pay-per-view er steget.
01:53
And TV, satellite and cable revenues are way up.
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Og TV-, satellit- og kabelindtægter er steget endnu mere.
01:56
Other content markets like book publishing and radio
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Øvrige indholdsmarkeder, som bogudgivelse og radio,
01:58
are also up.
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er også steget.
02:00
So this small missing chunk here
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Så den lille sjat her
02:02
is puzzling.
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er gådefuld.
02:04
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
02:07
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
02:10
Since the big content markets
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Siden de store indholdsmarkeder
02:12
have grown in line with historic norms,
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er vokset på linje med historiske normer,
02:14
it's not additional growth that piracy has prevented,
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er det ikke en yderligere vækst, som pirateri har forhindret,
02:17
but copyright math tells us
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men ophavsretsmatematik fortæller os
02:19
it must therefore be foregone growth
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at det derfor må være forhåndsvækst
02:22
in a market that has no historic norms --
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på et marked, som ikke har historiske normer --
02:24
one that didn't exist in the 90's.
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et, som ikke eksisterede i 90'erne.
02:26
What we're looking at here
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Det vi kigger på her
02:28
is the insidious cost of ringtone piracy.
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er den snigende omkostning af ringetonepirateri.
02:30
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
02:34
50 billion dollars of it a year,
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50 milliarder dollars af det hvert år,
02:36
which is enough, at 30 seconds a ringtone,
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hvilket er nok, ved 30 sekunder per ringetone,
02:38
that could stretch from here
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som kunne strække sig fra her
02:40
to Neanderthal times.
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til neandertalertiderne.
02:42
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
02:46
It's true.
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Det er sandt.
02:48
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
02:50
I have Excel.
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Jeg har Excel.
02:52
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
02:54
The movie folks also tell us
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Filmfolkene fortæller os også
02:56
that our economy loses
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at vores økonomi taber
02:58
over 370,000 jobs to content theft,
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over 370.000 jobs til indholdstyveri,
03:01
which is quite a lot when you consider that, back in '98,
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hvilket er ret meget, når man overvejer
at, tilbage i 90'erne,
at, tilbage i 90'erne,
03:04
the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated
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at Bureau of Labor Statistics indikerede
03:06
that the motion picture and video industries
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at spillefilm- og videoindustrierne
03:08
were employing 270,000 people.
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havde 270.000 mennesker ansat.
03:11
Other data has the music industry at about 45,000 people.
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Øvrig data fortæller at musikindustrien har omkring 45.000 mennesker.
03:14
And so the job losses that came with the Internet
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Og så er der tabene af arbejdspladser, som kom med internettet
03:16
and all that content theft,
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og alt det indholdstyveri,
03:18
have therefore left us with negative employment in our content industries.
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har derfor efterladt os med negativ ansættelse i vores indholdsindustrier.
03:21
And this is just one of the many mind-blowing statistics
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Og det er kun en af de mange ufattelige statistikker,
03:24
that copyright mathematicians have to deal with every day.
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som ophavsretsmatematikere skal arbejde med hver dag.
03:26
And some people think that string theory is tough.
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Og nogle mennesker synes at strengeteori er tungt.
03:29
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
03:31
Now this is a key number from the copyright mathematicians' toolkit.
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Det her er et nøgletal fra ophavsretsmatematikernes værktøjskasse.
03:34
It's the precise amount of harm
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Det er det præcise omfang af skade
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that comes to media companies
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som kommer til medieselskaberne
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whenever a single copyrighted song or movie
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hver gang en enkelt ophavsretlig sang eller film
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gets pirated.
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bliver piratkopieret.
03:42
Hollywood and Congress derived this number mathematically
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Hollywood og USA's Kongres afledte dette tal matematisk
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back when they last sat down to improve copyright damages
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tilbage da de sidst satte sig ned for at forbedre ophavsretsskaderne
03:48
and made this law.
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og lave denne lov.
03:50
Some people think this number's a little bit large,
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Nogle synes dette tal er en lille smule stort,
03:52
but copyright mathematicians who are media lobby experts
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men ophavsretsmatematikere, som er mediepåvirkningseksperter
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are merely surprised
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er blot overraskede
03:57
that it doesn't get compounded for inflation every year.
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at det ikke forværres af inflationen hvert år.
04:00
Now when this law first passed,
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Da denne lov først kom igennem,
04:02
the world's hottest MP3 player could hold just 10 songs.
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kunne verdens hotteste mp3-afspiller kun indeholde
10 sange.
10 sange.
04:05
And it was a big Christmas hit.
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Og det var et stort julehit.
04:07
Because what little hoodlum wouldn't want
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Fordi hvilken lille gadedreng ville da ikke have
04:09
a million and a half bucks-worth of stolen goods in his pocket.
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lommen fuld af stjålne varer til en værdi af
halvanden million dollars
halvanden million dollars
04:11
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
04:14
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
04:19
These days an iPod Classic can hold 40,000 songs,
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I disse dage kan en iPod Classic indeholde 40.000 sange,
04:22
which is to say eight billion dollars-worth
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hvilket svarer til otte milliarder dollars
04:25
of stolen media.
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stjålet medier.
04:27
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
04:29
Or about 75,000 jobs.
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Eller omkring 75.000 arbejdspladser.
04:31
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
04:33
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
04:38
Now you might find copyright math strange,
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Det kan være du synes ophavsretsmatematik er underligt,
04:41
but that's because it's a field
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men det er fordi det er et felt,
04:43
that's best left to experts.
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som er bedst efterladt til eksperter.
04:45
So that's it for now.
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Så det er alt for nu.
04:47
I hope you'll join me next time
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Jeg håber, I vil se med næste gang
04:49
when I will be making an equally scientific and fact-based inquiry
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når jeg vil lave en lignende videnskabelig- og
faktabaseret forespørgsel
faktabaseret forespørgsel
04:52
into the cost of alien music piracy to he American economy.
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på omkostningerne af alien-musikpirateri til den amerikanske økonomi.
04:55
Thank you very much.
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Mange tak.
04:57
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
04:59
Thank you.
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Tak.
05:01
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneurRob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody.
Why you should listen
Rob Reid is an author and a serial entrepreneur. He founded the company that created the Rhapsody music website, and his latest book, Year Zero, was published in July 2013. In it, aliens seek to erase the ruinous fines on their vast collections of pirated American music by destroying the Earth. Parts of it are made up. The audiobook version will be read by John Hodgman.
On the TED Blog, read more on the numbers behind Copyright Math >>
Rob Reid | Speaker | TED.com