TED2012
Rob Reid: The $8 billion iPod
Rob Reid: iPod od 8 milijardi dolara
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Satiričar Rob Reid predstavlja Matematiku autorskog prava (TM), značajno novo polje znanstvenih istraživanja brojeva koje dobivamo od odvjetnika i lobista industrije zabave.
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneur
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
The recent debate over copyright laws
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Nedavna rasprava o zakonima protiv piratstva
00:17
like SOPA in the United States
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kao što je SOPA u SAD-u
00:19
and the ACTA agreement in Europe
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i sporazum ACTA u Europi
00:21
has been very emotional.
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bila je vrlo emotivna.
00:23
And I think some dispassionate, quantitative reasoning
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Vjerujem da bi nepristrano i kvantitativno rasuđivanje
00:26
could really bring a great deal to the debate.
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moglo dati veliki doprinos toj raspravi.
00:28
I'd therefore like to propose
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Stoga predlažem
00:30
that we employ, we enlist,
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da iskoristimo i primjenimo
00:32
the cutting edge field of copyright math
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vrhunsku znanost matematike autorskog prava
00:34
whenever we approach this subject.
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kad god pristupamo ovome problemu.
00:36
For instance, just recently
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Naprimjer, nedavno je
00:38
the Motion Picture Association revealed
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Udruga filmskih producenata objavila
00:40
that our economy loses 58 billion dollars a year
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da naše gospodarstvo gubi 58 milijardi dolara godišnje
00:43
to copyright theft.
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zbog krađe autorskog prava.
00:46
Now rather than just argue about this number,
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Umjesto da samo raspravlja o tom broju,
00:48
a copyright mathematician will analyze it
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matematičar autorskog prava analizirat će ga
00:51
and he'll soon discover that this money
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i ubrzo otkriti da bi se taj novac
00:53
could stretch from this auditorium
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mogao rastegnuti od ove dvorane,
00:55
all the way across Ocean Boulevard
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preko Ocean bulevara
00:57
to the Westin, and then to Mars ...
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pa do Westina, i zatim do Marsa...
01:00
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
01:02
... if we use pennies.
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...ako koristimo penije.
01:05
Now this is obviously a powerful,
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To je očito izrazito važna,
01:07
some might say dangerously powerful, insight.
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neki bi rekli čak i opasno važna spoznaja.
01:10
But it's also a morally important one.
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No ona je ujedno i moralno važna,
01:12
Because this isn't just the hypothetical retail value
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jer tu se ne radi samo o hipotetičkoj
01:15
of some pirated movies that we're talking about,
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maloprodajnoj vrijednosti piratiziranih filmova,
01:17
but this is actual economic losses.
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već o stvarnim ekonomskim gubicima.
01:19
This is the equivalent
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To je vrijednost koja odgovara vrijednosti
01:21
to the entire American corn crop failing
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gubitka cjelokupne američke sjetve kukuruza
01:23
along with all of our fruit crops,
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skupa sa svim našim voćnim kulturama,
01:26
as well as wheat, tobacco,
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kao i pšenice, duhana,
01:28
rice, sorghum --
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riže, sirka -
01:30
whatever sorghum is -- losing sorghum.
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što god da je sirak. Gubitak sirka.
01:34
But identifying the actual losses to the economy
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Identificirati stvarne gubitke po ekonomiju
01:37
is almost impossible to do
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gotovo je nemoguće bez
01:39
unless we use copyright math.
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primjene matematike autorskog prava.
01:41
Now music revenues are down by about eight billion dollars a year
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Prihodi glazbene industrije pali su za oko 8 milijardi dolara godišnje
01:44
since Napster first came on the scene.
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otkada se na sceni pojavio Napster.
01:46
So that's a chunk of what we're looking for.
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To je zapravo veličina koju tražimo.
01:49
But total movie revenues
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Ukupni prihodi od filma,
01:51
across theaters, home video and pay-per-view are up.
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preko kazališta, kućnih videa i online prikazivanja su u porastu.
01:53
And TV, satellite and cable revenues are way up.
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Rastu i prihodi od televizije, satelitske i kablovske televizije.
01:56
Other content markets like book publishing and radio
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Slična tržišta sadržaja, poput izdavaštva i radija,
01:58
are also up.
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također rastu.
02:00
So this small missing chunk here
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Dakle, ova sitna veličina koja nedostaje
02:02
is puzzling.
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je zapravo zagonetka.
02:04
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
02:07
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
02:10
Since the big content markets
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S obzirom na to da velika tržišta sadržaja
02:12
have grown in line with historic norms,
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rastu u skladu s povijesnim podacima,
02:14
it's not additional growth that piracy has prevented,
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piratstvo nije spriječilo dodatni rast,
02:17
but copyright math tells us
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već nam matematika autorskog prava ukazuje
02:19
it must therefore be foregone growth
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da je do izostanka rasta stoga moralo doći
02:22
in a market that has no historic norms --
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na tržištu za koje nemamo povijesnih podataka -
02:24
one that didn't exist in the 90's.
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na tržištu koje nije ni postojalo u 90-ima.
02:26
What we're looking at here
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Ono što ovdje vidimo jest
02:28
is the insidious cost of ringtone piracy.
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prikriveni trošak piratstva zvukova za mobitele.
02:30
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
02:34
50 billion dollars of it a year,
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50 milijardi dolara godišnje,
02:36
which is enough, at 30 seconds a ringtone,
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što bi se moglo, ako mobitel zvoni 30 sekundi,
02:38
that could stretch from here
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razvući od sada
02:40
to Neanderthal times.
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pa do vremena neandertalaca.
02:42
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
02:46
It's true.
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Istina je.
02:48
(Applause)
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(smijeh)
02:50
I have Excel.
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Imam Excel.
02:52
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
02:54
The movie folks also tell us
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Oni koji rade filmove nam kažu
02:56
that our economy loses
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da naša ekonomija zbog krađe sadržaja
02:58
over 370,000 jobs to content theft,
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gubi preko 370.000 radnih mjesta,
03:01
which is quite a lot when you consider that, back in '98,
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što je zapravo jako mnogo ako uzmemo u obzir da je '98
03:04
the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated
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Zavod za statistiku rada objavio
03:06
that the motion picture and video industries
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da filmska i video industrija
03:08
were employing 270,000 people.
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zapošljavaju 270.000 osoba.
03:11
Other data has the music industry at about 45,000 people.
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Prema drugim izvorima glazbena industrija ima oko 45.000 zaposlenih.
03:14
And so the job losses that came with the Internet
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Tako da je gubitak radnih mjesta uzrokovan internetom
03:16
and all that content theft,
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i svom tom krađom sadržaja
03:18
have therefore left us with negative employment in our content industries.
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doveo do negativnog trenda zapošljavanja u industrijama sadržaja.
03:21
And this is just one of the many mind-blowing statistics
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I to je samo jedan od mnoštva zapanjujućih pokazatelja
03:24
that copyright mathematicians have to deal with every day.
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s kojima se matematičari autorskog prava moraju svakodnevno nositi.
03:26
And some people think that string theory is tough.
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A neki ljudi misle da je teorija struna teška.
03:29
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
03:31
Now this is a key number from the copyright mathematicians' toolkit.
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Ovo ovdje je ključna brojka matematike autorskog prava.
03:34
It's the precise amount of harm
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To je precizan iznos štete
03:36
that comes to media companies
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koju pretrpe medijske tvrtke
03:38
whenever a single copyrighted song or movie
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kad god neka zaštićena pjesma ili film
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gets pirated.
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bude piratiziran.
03:42
Hollywood and Congress derived this number mathematically
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Hollywood i Kongres matematički su došli do toga broja
03:45
back when they last sat down to improve copyright damages
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kada su posljednji put odlučili unaprijediti štetu od piratstva,
03:48
and made this law.
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i donijeti taj zakon.
03:50
Some people think this number's a little bit large,
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Neki smatraju da je taj broj nešto preuveličan,
03:52
but copyright mathematicians who are media lobby experts
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no matematičari autorskog prava koji su stručnjaci za medijsko lobiranje
03:55
are merely surprised
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zapravo su iznenađeni
03:57
that it doesn't get compounded for inflation every year.
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da nije i veći zbog uračunavanja godišnje inflacije.
04:00
Now when this law first passed,
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Kada je taj zakon prvi put donesen
04:02
the world's hottest MP3 player could hold just 10 songs.
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najbolji MP3 uređaj na svijetu mogao je spremiti samo 10 pjesama.
04:05
And it was a big Christmas hit.
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Bio je tada velik božićni hit,
04:07
Because what little hoodlum wouldn't want
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jer koja mala bitanga ne bi željela
04:09
a million and a half bucks-worth of stolen goods in his pocket.
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milijun i pol dolara vrijednu ukradenu robu u džepu.
04:11
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
04:14
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
04:19
These days an iPod Classic can hold 40,000 songs,
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Ovih dana iPod Classic može spremiti 40.000 pjesama,
04:22
which is to say eight billion dollars-worth
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što daje vrijednost od osam milijardi dolara
04:25
of stolen media.
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ukradenog sadržaja.
04:27
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
04:29
Or about 75,000 jobs.
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Ili oko 75.000 Jobs (Steve)
04:31
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
04:33
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
04:38
Now you might find copyright math strange,
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Možda vam se matematika autorskog prava čini čudnom,
04:41
but that's because it's a field
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ali to je zato što je to područje
04:43
that's best left to experts.
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koje je bolje prepustiti stručnjacima.
04:45
So that's it for now.
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Toliko za sada.
04:47
I hope you'll join me next time
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Nadam se da ćete mi se pridružiti i sljedeći put
04:49
when I will be making an equally scientific and fact-based inquiry
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u jednako znanstvenom i na činjenicama utemeljenom istraživanju
04:52
into the cost of alien music piracy to he American economy.
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troškova izvanzemaljskog piratstva u američkoj ekonomiji.
04:55
Thank you very much.
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Mnogo vam hvala.
04:57
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
04:59
Thank you.
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Hvala.
05:01
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneurRob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody.
Why you should listen
Rob Reid is an author and a serial entrepreneur. He founded the company that created the Rhapsody music website, and his latest book, Year Zero, was published in July 2013. In it, aliens seek to erase the ruinous fines on their vast collections of pirated American music by destroying the Earth. Parts of it are made up. The audiobook version will be read by John Hodgman.
On the TED Blog, read more on the numbers behind Copyright Math >>
Rob Reid | Speaker | TED.com