TED2012
Rob Reid: The $8 billion iPod
Rob Reid: iPod, vreden 8 milijard
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Komični pisatelj Rob Reid predstavlja matematiko avtorskih pravic (TM), novo področje raziskav, ki temelji na dejanskih številkah odvetnikov in lobistov za panogo zabavnih vsebin.
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneur
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
The recent debate over copyright laws
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Nedavna debata o zakonodaji
o avtorskih pravicah,
o avtorskih pravicah,
00:17
like SOPA in the United States
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kot je SOPA v ZDA in ACTA v Evropi,
je bila nadvse čustvena.
je bila nadvse čustvena.
00:19
and the ACTA agreement in Europe
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00:21
has been very emotional.
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00:23
And I think some dispassionate, quantitative reasoning
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Zato mislim, da bi neprizadet
in kvantitativen pogled
in kvantitativen pogled
00:26
could really bring a great deal to the debate.
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bistveno prispeval k temu dialogu.
00:28
I'd therefore like to propose
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Zato bi rad predlagal, da uporabimo
00:30
that we employ, we enlist,
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00:32
the cutting edge field of copyright math
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popolnoma novo znanost
matematike avtorskih pravic,
matematike avtorskih pravic,
00:34
whenever we approach this subject.
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vsakič, ko govorimo o tem področju.
00:36
For instance, just recently
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Na primer, pred kratkim je organizacija
00:38
the Motion Picture Association revealed
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Motion Picture Association razkrila,
00:40
that our economy loses 58 billion dollars a year
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da naše gospodarstvo
na leto izgubi 58 milijard USD
na leto izgubi 58 milijard USD
00:43
to copyright theft.
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zaradi kraje intelektualne lastnine.
00:46
Now rather than just argue about this number,
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Namesto, da bi se prerekal o tej številki,
00:48
a copyright mathematician will analyze it
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jo matematik avtorskih pravic
raje analizira
raje analizira
00:51
and he'll soon discover that this money
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in kmalu ugotovi, da bi se lahko
ta vsota raztezala od te dvorane
ta vsota raztezala od te dvorane
00:53
could stretch from this auditorium
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00:55
all the way across Ocean Boulevard
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preko ulice Ocean Boulevard
00:57
to the Westin, and then to Mars ...
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do hotela Westin in nato do Marsa...
01:00
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
01:02
... if we use pennies.
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...če uporabimo kovance za en peni.
01:05
Now this is obviously a powerful,
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To je očitno izjemno prepričljiv,
morda celo nevarno prepričljiv podatek.
morda celo nevarno prepričljiv podatek.
01:07
some might say dangerously powerful, insight.
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01:10
But it's also a morally important one.
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Ob tem pa je pomemben
tudi z moralnega vidika.
tudi z moralnega vidika.
01:12
Because this isn't just the hypothetical retail value
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Tu ne gre le za hipotetično maloprodajno
vrednost piratiziranih filmov,
vrednost piratiziranih filmov,
01:15
of some pirated movies that we're talking about,
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01:17
but this is actual economic losses.
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temveč za dejanske gospodarske izgube.
01:19
This is the equivalent
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Ta izguba je enaka, kot da bi izpadla
celotna ameriška žetev koruze, sadja,
celotna ameriška žetev koruze, sadja,
01:21
to the entire American corn crop failing
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01:23
along with all of our fruit crops,
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01:26
as well as wheat, tobacco,
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pšenice, tobaka, riža, sireka...
01:28
rice, sorghum --
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01:30
whatever sorghum is -- losing sorghum.
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karkoli že je sirek.
01:34
But identifying the actual losses to the economy
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Toda dejanske izgube v gospodarstvu
je skoraj nemogoče v celoti oceniti,
je skoraj nemogoče v celoti oceniti,
01:37
is almost impossible to do
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01:39
unless we use copyright math.
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če ne uporabimo
matematike avtorskih pravic.
matematike avtorskih pravic.
01:41
Now music revenues are down by about eight billion dollars a year
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Prihodki od glasbe so se letno zmanjšali
za približno osem milijard USD
za približno osem milijard USD
01:44
since Napster first came on the scene.
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odkar se je prvič pojavil Napster.
01:46
So that's a chunk of what we're looking for.
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Tu lahko torej odkrijemo del teh izgub.
01:49
But total movie revenues
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Toda skupni prihodki od filmov
v kinodvoranah, domačem videu
in plačljivem videu so se povečali.
in plačljivem videu so se povečali.
01:51
across theaters, home video and pay-per-view are up.
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01:53
And TV, satellite and cable revenues are way up.
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Prihodki tv postaj, satelitske in
kabelske tv pa so se zelo povečali.
kabelske tv pa so se zelo povečali.
01:56
Other content markets like book publishing and radio
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Drugi trgi z vsebinami, kot sta
založništvo knjig in radio, so tudi rasli.
založništvo knjig in radio, so tudi rasli.
01:58
are also up.
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02:00
So this small missing chunk here
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Torej nam ta mali manjkajoči košček
dela sive lase.
dela sive lase.
02:02
is puzzling.
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02:04
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
02:07
(Applause)
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(aplavz)
02:10
Since the big content markets
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Ker so veliki trgi z vsebinami
rasli v skladu z zgodovinskimi normami,
rasli v skladu z zgodovinskimi normami,
02:12
have grown in line with historic norms,
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02:14
it's not additional growth that piracy has prevented,
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piratstvo ni preprečilo dodatne rasti,
02:17
but copyright math tells us
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a matematika avtorskih pravic nam pove,
02:19
it must therefore be foregone growth
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da mora zato biti izgubljena rast na trgu,
ki nima zgodovinskih norm -
ki nima zgodovinskih norm -
02:22
in a market that has no historic norms --
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02:24
one that didn't exist in the 90's.
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ker v 90-ih še ni obstajal.
02:26
What we're looking at here
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Kar tukaj vidimo, je zahrbtni strošek
piratiziranja melodij zvonjenja telefonov.
piratiziranja melodij zvonjenja telefonov.
02:28
is the insidious cost of ringtone piracy.
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02:30
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
02:34
50 billion dollars of it a year,
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50 milijard USD na leto,
02:36
which is enough, at 30 seconds a ringtone,
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kar je, pri 30 sekundah na melodijo,
dovolj, da sega nazaj do neandertalcev.
dovolj, da sega nazaj do neandertalcev.
02:38
that could stretch from here
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02:40
to Neanderthal times.
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02:42
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
02:46
It's true.
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Resnično.
02:48
(Applause)
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(aplavz)
02:50
I have Excel.
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Imam Excel.
02:52
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
02:54
The movie folks also tell us
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Filmska industrija nam govori tudi,
02:56
that our economy loses
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da gospodarstvo zaradi kraje vsebin
izgubi več kot 370.000 delovnih mest,
izgubi več kot 370.000 delovnih mest,
02:58
over 370,000 jobs to content theft,
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03:01
which is quite a lot when you consider that, back in '98,
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kar je kar precej,
če upoštevate, da je v letu 1998
če upoštevate, da je v letu 1998
03:04
the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated
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ameriški Urad za statistiko dela navedel,
03:06
that the motion picture and video industries
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da filmska industrija
zaposluje 270.000 ljudi.
zaposluje 270.000 ljudi.
03:08
were employing 270,000 people.
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(smeh)
03:11
Other data has the music industry at about 45,000 people.
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Drugi podatki kažejo, da glasbena
industrija zaposluje 45.000 ljudi.
industrija zaposluje 45.000 ljudi.
03:14
And so the job losses that came with the Internet
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Tako sta nas izguba delovnih mest,
ki je prišla z internetom,
ki je prišla z internetom,
03:16
and all that content theft,
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in vsa ta kraja vsebin pustila z negativno
zaposlenostjo v naši industriji vsebin.
zaposlenostjo v naši industriji vsebin.
03:18
have therefore left us with negative employment in our content industries.
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03:21
And this is just one of the many mind-blowing statistics
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In to je samo ena
od neverjetnih statistik,
od neverjetnih statistik,
03:24
that copyright mathematicians have to deal with every day.
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s katerimi se matematiki avtorskih pravic
dnevno soočajo.
dnevno soočajo.
03:26
And some people think that string theory is tough.
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Nekateri pa mislijo,
da je teorija strun težka.
da je teorija strun težka.
03:29
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
03:31
Now this is a key number from the copyright mathematicians' toolkit.
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To je ključna številka med orodji
matematikov avtorskih pravic.
matematikov avtorskih pravic.
03:34
It's the precise amount of harm
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Je natančna vsota škode,
ki jo utrpijo medijska podjetja,
ki jo utrpijo medijska podjetja,
03:36
that comes to media companies
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03:38
whenever a single copyrighted song or movie
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vsakič, ko se ena pesem ali film
z avtorskimi pravicami spiratizira.
z avtorskimi pravicami spiratizira.
03:40
gets pirated.
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03:42
Hollywood and Congress derived this number mathematically
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Hollywood in ameriški kongres
sta to številko matematično izpeljala,
sta to številko matematično izpeljala,
03:45
back when they last sat down to improve copyright damages
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ko sta nazadnje skupaj sedla,
da bi izboljšala odškodnine zaradi kršenja
avtorskih pravic in naredila ta zakon.
avtorskih pravic in naredila ta zakon.
03:48
and made this law.
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03:50
Some people think this number's a little bit large,
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Nekaterim se zdi ta številka
nekoliko visoka,
nekoliko visoka,
03:52
but copyright mathematicians who are media lobby experts
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a matematiki avtorskih pravic,
ki so eksperti medijskega lobiranja,
ki so eksperti medijskega lobiranja,
03:55
are merely surprised
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so le presenečeni, da se
ne uskladi vsako leto z inflacijo.
ne uskladi vsako leto z inflacijo.
03:57
that it doesn't get compounded for inflation every year.
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04:00
Now when this law first passed,
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Ko je bil ta zakon prvič sprejet,
04:02
the world's hottest MP3 player could hold just 10 songs.
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je najboljši MP3 predvajalnik na svetu
lahko vseboval vsega 10 pesmi.
lahko vseboval vsega 10 pesmi.
04:05
And it was a big Christmas hit.
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In bil je velik božični hit.
04:07
Because what little hoodlum wouldn't want
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Kajti le kateri mali lopov
si v svojem žepu ne bi želel
si v svojem žepu ne bi želel
04:09
a million and a half bucks-worth of stolen goods in his pocket.
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ukradene robe vredne
milijona in pol čukov.
milijona in pol čukov.
04:11
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
04:14
(Applause)
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(aplavz)
04:19
These days an iPod Classic can hold 40,000 songs,
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Te dni lahko na iPod Classic
naložimo 40.000 pesmi,
naložimo 40.000 pesmi,
04:22
which is to say eight billion dollars-worth
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kar je za 8 milijard dolarjev
ukradene glasbe.
ukradene glasbe.
04:25
of stolen media.
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04:27
(Applause)
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(aplavz)
04:29
Or about 75,000 jobs.
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Ali približno 75.000 delovnih mest.
04:31
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
04:33
(Applause)
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(aplavz)
04:38
Now you might find copyright math strange,
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Matematika avtorskih pravic
se vam morda zdi čudna,
se vam morda zdi čudna,
04:41
but that's because it's a field
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a le zato, ker je to področje
bolje prepustiti strokovnjakom.
bolje prepustiti strokovnjakom.
04:43
that's best left to experts.
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04:45
So that's it for now.
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To je zaenkrat vse.
04:47
I hope you'll join me next time
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Upam, da se mi pridružite naslednjič,
ko bom na enako znanstven način
in na podlagi dejstev pogledal,
in na podlagi dejstev pogledal,
04:49
when I will be making an equally scientific and fact-based inquiry
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04:52
into the cost of alien music piracy to he American economy.
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kakšne stroške ameriškemu gospodarstvu
povzroča vesoljsko piratiziranje glasbe.
povzroča vesoljsko piratiziranje glasbe.
04:55
Thank you very much.
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Najlepša hvala.
04:57
(Applause)
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(aplavz)
04:59
Thank you.
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Hvala.
05:01
(Applause)
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(aplavz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneurRob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody.
Why you should listen
Rob Reid is an author and a serial entrepreneur. He founded the company that created the Rhapsody music website, and his latest book, Year Zero, was published in July 2013. In it, aliens seek to erase the ruinous fines on their vast collections of pirated American music by destroying the Earth. Parts of it are made up. The audiobook version will be read by John Hodgman.
On the TED Blog, read more on the numbers behind Copyright Math >>
Rob Reid | Speaker | TED.com