TED2012
Rob Reid: The $8 billion iPod
Rob Reid：8億美金的iPod
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漫畫作者Rob Reid為各位介紹版權數學法（TM），此乃根據娛樂產業的律師和說客所提供之數據的新研究領域
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneur
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
The recent debate over copyright laws
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最近對於著作權法的爭論
00:17
like SOPA in the United States
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像美國的SOPA禁止網絡盜版法案(Stop Online Piracy Act)
00:19
and the ACTA agreement in Europe
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以及歐洲的ACTA 反仿冒貿易協定（Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement)
00:21
has been very emotional.
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有點過度情緒化
00:23
And I think some dispassionate, quantitative reasoning
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不過我覺得一些理性且有數據的理論
00:26
could really bring a great deal to the debate.
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對這個辯論會有更大的幫助
00:28
I'd therefore like to propose
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因此我想建議
00:30
that we employ, we enlist,
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我們可以充分運用
00:32
the cutting edge field of copyright math
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這個尖端領域: copyright math(版權數學法)
00:34
whenever we approach this subject.
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當我們涉及這個話題時
00:36
For instance, just recently
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像是不久之前
00:38
the Motion Picture Association revealed
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美國電影協會（Motion Picture Association of America) 發現
00:40
that our economy loses 58 billion dollars a year
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盜版使我們的經濟
00:43
to copyright theft.
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一年損失580億美金
00:46
Now rather than just argue about this number,
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現在與其對這個數字進行爭辯
00:48
a copyright mathematician will analyze it
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版權數學家會分析這個數字
00:51
and he'll soon discover that this money
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並且很快會發現這筆錢
00:53
could stretch from this auditorium
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可以從這個演講廳
00:55
all the way across Ocean Boulevard
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堆到海洋大道
00:57
to the Westin, and then to Mars ...
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再到威士汀酒店然後到火星
01:00
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:02
... if we use pennies.
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當然.....要是我們使用銅板來堆這些錢
01:05
Now this is obviously a powerful,
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現在這明顯是個強大的
01:07
some might say dangerously powerful, insight.
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有人甚至會說是個異常強大的事
01:10
But it's also a morally important one.
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這同時也是個具有重大道德意思的一件事
01:12
Because this isn't just the hypothetical retail value
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因為這不僅是我們說的
01:15
of some pirated movies that we're talking about,
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盜版電影的預設零售價
01:17
but this is actual economic losses.
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這是一個真正的經濟損失
01:19
This is the equivalent
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這個損失相當於
01:21
to the entire American corn crop failing
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美國整體玉米種植量的損失
01:23
along with all of our fruit crops,
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並且加上水果
01:26
as well as wheat, tobacco,
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小麥,菸草
01:28
rice, sorghum --
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米及高粱
01:30
whatever sorghum is -- losing sorghum.
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不管高粱是什麼，我們就是損失了高粱
01:34
But identifying the actual losses to the economy
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要真正去計算經濟上的損失
01:37
is almost impossible to do
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是幾乎不可能的
01:39
unless we use copyright math.
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除非我們使用版權數學法
01:41
Now music revenues are down by about eight billion dollars a year
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現在音樂產業每年損失近80億美金
01:44
since Napster first came on the scene.
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因為Napster的出現
01:46
So that's a chunk of what we're looking for.
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所以這塊是我們所要研究的
01:49
But total movie revenues
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但是整個電影產業的收入
01:51
across theaters, home video and pay-per-view are up.
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包括電影,家庭劇院以及點播購買電視節目的卻上升了
01:53
And TV, satellite and cable revenues are way up.
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而普通電視,衛星電視以及有線電視的收入也大幅提升
01:56
Other content markets like book publishing and radio
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其它產業像是書籍出版以及廣播節目
01:58
are also up.
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的收入也跟著提升
02:00
So this small missing chunk here
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因此損失的這塊
02:02
is puzzling.
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是讓人感到困惑的
02:04
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:07
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
02:10
Since the big content markets
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但整體的市場
02:12
have grown in line with historic norms,
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還是隨著過去的標準成長
02:14
it's not additional growth that piracy has prevented,
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盜版並沒有對主要市場造成太大的影響
02:17
but copyright math tells us
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從版權數學法中我們可以得知
02:19
it must therefore be foregone growth
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在過往一定有一個成長
02:22
in a market that has no historic norms --
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是沒有遵循著以往的標準
02:24
one that didn't exist in the 90's.
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並且在90年代時尚未出現
02:26
What we're looking at here
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我們現在看的是
02:28
is the insidious cost of ringtone piracy.
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電話鈴聲潛在的侵權損失
02:30
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:34
50 billion dollars of it a year,
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每年會造成500億美金的損失
02:36
which is enough, at 30 seconds a ringtone,
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這已經夠多了, 一個鈴聲30秒
02:38
that could stretch from here
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可以從這裡一直延伸到
02:40
to Neanderthal times.
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尼安德塔人的時代
02:42
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:46
It's true.
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這是事實
02:48
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
02:50
I have Excel.
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我用Excel來計算的
02:52
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:54
The movie folks also tell us
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電影行業的人跟我說
02:56
that our economy loses
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我們經濟損失中
02:58
over 370,000 jobs to content theft,
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有超過370,000人是因為版權侵占而失業的
03:01
which is quite a lot when you consider that, back in '98,
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這個數字是相當驚人的
03:04
the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated
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在1998年 美國勞動統計局表示
03:06
that the motion picture and video industries
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整個動畫以及影片相關產業
03:08
were employing 270,000 people.
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共雇用了270,000人
03:11
Other data has the music industry at about 45,000 people.
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另一資料顯示，音樂產業雇用了約45,000人
03:14
And so the job losses that came with the Internet
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隨著網路普及後的失業潮
03:16
and all that content theft,
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以及版權侵占而來的失業
03:18
have therefore left us with negative employment in our content industries.
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使我們的內容產業損失很大
03:21
And this is just one of the many mind-blowing statistics
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這僅是許多讓人沮喪的統計數字之一
03:24
that copyright mathematicians have to deal with every day.
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版權數學家每天都要面對這些數據
03:26
And some people think that string theory is tough.
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有人認弦理論很難
03:29
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
03:31
Now this is a key number from the copyright mathematicians' toolkit.
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這是版權數學家一個很重要的工具
03:34
It's the precise amount of harm
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這是一個很準確的損失數據
03:36
that comes to media companies
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當傳媒公司
03:38
whenever a single copyrighted song or movie
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有任何一首歌或是電影
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gets pirated.
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遭到侵權時
03:42
Hollywood and Congress derived this number mathematically
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這個數據是好萊塢跟國會
03:45
back when they last sat down to improve copyright damages
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為減少侵權損失，修定版權法時
03:48
and made this law.
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所計算出來的
03:50
Some people think this number's a little bit large,
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有人覺得這個數字太大了
03:52
but copyright mathematicians who are media lobby experts
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而身為傳媒界的計算專家,版權數學家們
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are merely surprised
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僅對於這個數據
03:57
that it doesn't get compounded for inflation every year.
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並沒有跟著通貨膨脹而增加感到驚訝
04:00
Now when this law first passed,
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而當這個法律通過後
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the world's hottest MP3 player could hold just 10 songs.
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市面上最熱銷的MP3播放器僅能存10首歌而已
04:05
And it was a big Christmas hit.
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並且這會是聖誕節最熱銷的禮物
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Because what little hoodlum wouldn't want
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因為小流氓不會將
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a million and a half bucks-worth of stolen goods in his pocket.
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價值150萬美金的贓物放在口袋裡
04:11
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
04:14
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
04:19
These days an iPod Classic can hold 40,000 songs,
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現在一台iPod Classic可以存放40,000首歌
04:22
which is to say eight billion dollars-worth
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這也就是說相當於8億美金的
04:25
of stolen media.
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盜版音樂
04:27
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
04:29
Or about 75,000 jobs.
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或是相當於75,000個工作
04:31
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
04:33
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
04:38
Now you might find copyright math strange,
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或許你會覺得版權數學法很奇怪
04:41
but that's because it's a field
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那是因為這是一個特別的領域
04:43
that's best left to experts.
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只適合專家們去研究
04:45
So that's it for now.
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今天就先到這裡
04:47
I hope you'll join me next time
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希望下次
04:49
when I will be making an equally scientific and fact-based inquiry
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當我在對國外盜版音樂對於美國經濟的損失
04:52
into the cost of alien music piracy to he American economy.
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用比較科學且有事實根據的調查時,還能看到你們
04:55
Thank you very much.
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謝謝你們
04:57
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
04:59
Thank you.
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謝謝大家
05:01
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneurRob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody.
Why you should listen
Rob Reid is an author and a serial entrepreneur. He founded the company that created the Rhapsody music website, and his latest book, Year Zero, was published in July 2013. In it, aliens seek to erase the ruinous fines on their vast collections of pirated American music by destroying the Earth. Parts of it are made up. The audiobook version will be read by John Hodgman.
On the TED Blog, read more on the numbers behind Copyright Math >>
Rob Reid | Speaker | TED.com